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Radar Tracked Change in Altitude and Sharp Turn

Aired March 23, 2014 - 19:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

DON LEMON, CNN ANCHOR: Yes. Go ahead, quickly.

LES ABEND, CNN AVIATION EXPERT: Let's just remember every accident has multiple causes to it. So there's never just one. So let's not -- I don't want to get us all going in the direction where there's only one cause.

LEMON: Right.

ABEND: Something -- if indeed, this happened mechanical, there's got to be more reasons than just one that this all happened.

LEMON: Simple deduction. Thank you very much. We appreciate it. Stand by, everyone. It's the top of the hour.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: This is CNN Breaking News.

LEMON: This is CNN Breaking News. I'm Don Lemon in New York.

We're getting new information now. This is a breaking news here -- brand new information about the Malaysia Airlines Flight 370's path and altitude. A CNN source tells us Malaysian military radar tracking the plane shows it flew as low as 12,000 feet after making a sharp left turn and flying back over Malaysian -- the Malaysian peninsula. The source says after the turn, the plane flew in a heavily trafficked air corridor and our source notes that flying at 12,000 feet would have kept the jet well out of the way of that traffic.

Now the sharp left turn appears intentional because it would have taken two minutes. Two minutes for the 777 jet to make that turn.

Now, with us now to discuss all of this is CNN aviation analyst Mary Schiavo, a former inspector general for the U.S. Department of Transportation; Also we have aviation analyst Mark Weiss with us a retired pilot; also Les Abend, aviation analyst and a 777 pilot; plus -- plus pilot and aviation analyst Miles O'Brien. And then we're going to start with Mary first. Mary, the significance of this new information?

MARY SCHIAVO, CNN AVIATION ANALYST: Highly significant because it explains so many pieces that didn't fit together before. Now if we have a scenario where something happened, the plane made a dramatic turn and dropped from 35,000 feet to 12,000 feet, this scenario would fit what a pilot would do in the event of a catastrophic onboard event such as a rapid decompression, a fire, and explosion.

That's what you would have to do. Descend get down and turn around and try to get back to an airport that could accommodate an ailing plane.

LEMON: Ok. Mark Weiss -- excuse I said Mark Weiss. Sorry for mispronouncing your name there in the beginning. What did this new information tell -- tells you about the pilot's action.

MARK WEISS, CNN AVIATION ANALYST: Well first of all you know we've had so much information come out and so much contradictory information coming out that I caution jumping to any types of more conclusions at this point. We heard the plane went up to 45,000 feet then down to 25,000 feet. It made a left turn then made a right turn then made another left turn. So there's a lot of conflicting information.

But you know, as Mary had said before, you know my original thinking was that there was some type of human intervention in the cockpit. If the information that's coming out today is more accurate than what we've had before, then I tend to agree with the other -- in the theories that this would have been pilots, perhaps, trying to save an aircraft because of some type of mechanical problem onboard the aircraft.

There are still some key questions that I have about being able to get communications outside of the airplane. But again, I think at this point it's -- it would be nice to have a little few more of the pieces put together. But we also have to now take a look at the fact that if that aircraft went down to 12,000 feet, that the fuel that would be onboard the aircraft, it would have used a lot more fuel.

So where along that ring of where the pingers would have come out could that airplane be? Now we may be searching in the wrong place.

LEMON: Mr. Weiss, what are you questions about communications?

WEISS: Well my -- my question would be, during these procedure, you'd want to communicate to air traffic control that you've turned off your airway, that you're declaring an emergency. What your intentions are. And particularly if it's a fire onboard the aircraft or some type of an explosion, you want to get the airplane down to the nearest airport, suitable airport, in point of time.

And for that you may want to get the help of air traffic controllers be it a civilian or a military field.

LEMON: Ok. And you were saying, Les Abend, who is a 777 pilot, has an explanation. You said that's great in the textbook version but.

ABEND: But you know in the heat of the battle and the confusion and the stress, there are things that you forget. Now, they're not going to forget to communicate. But they may have been in the air -- we don't know exactly if, of course, this emergency really occurred, and if and when it occurred.

So, they may have been in an area that was not able -- they were not able to communicate anyhow, and they knew that, especially this 18,000 hour captain that may have been flying this route all the time. He said they're not going to help us. We have to help ourselves. LEMON: Shawn Pruchnicki, we have been talking about the information coming from Malaysian officials. Why didn't Malaysian officials, that's the question, have this information much earlier? The plane disappeared 17 days ago.

SHAWN PRUCHNICKI, AVIATION ANALYST: Yes. Well, I think that is obviously a very good question. And I surely don't have the answer. I'm not sure anyone does outside the Malaysian government. So I think that's obviously one of the things that we need to look at as time goes on.

But if I can, Don, I want to chime in with some of this -- I want to mention something else that dovetails into what's already been said. I think we need to be very careful when we talk about how, you know, folks in the industry are talking about how the aircraft turned and it was programmed in the FMC and these types of ideas.

We don't know if this was being flown. The autopilot being manually flown even with the autopilot there's different ways you can do that outside of programming it into the FMC. So you know speculating about things like that, we just need to be careful. And I think we're certainly more on target with this discussion -- this discussion tonight in light of this breaking news.

LEMON: Les?

ABEND: Yes. I mean it's anybody's best guess why they're not revealing it. But with my experience about an accident --

LEMON: I meant what he said about being on target and not knowing whether it was being flown manually.

ABEND: It's true. That part of it is correct. It is hard to tell.

LEMON: Miles O'Brien, as a pilot, what does this new information reveal to you about the intentions or the reactions of the pilot and crew, if anything?

MILE O'BRIEN, CNN AVIATION EXPERT: Well you know, on the surface what it looks like is a textbook response to a catastrophic event at high altitude. There's a little more information we need to gather. But that's -- that's what we're seeing. What's the catastrophic event is the real mystery now. As we look at this.

So and you know, we've had some -- some dead ends before to say the least over these 16 days or so. So we should keep that all in mind as we continue this discussion. But this is extremely significant. And I got to say, it raises all kinds of questions about where they are searching. You might want to begin right where that turn began just to see what, if anything, fell off the airplane for one thing. But if it is, in fact, true that those INMARSAT pings are correct and it flew on, it's a really good point that at 10,000 feet, the fuel burn is entirely different. And the range is much less. And so it may be the entirely wrong place that they're searching.

LEMON: It's interesting because earlier I said I would love to see Martin Savidge put this information into the flight simulator and see how that scenario would play out. Martin is doing that. And we're going to have that for you as soon as he gets the information into the simulator. We'll bring it to you ha here on CNN.

I want to read all of this. So I think it's very important that the viewer know exactly what you're talking about here. You see my panel of experts. I'm going to read to you exactly the information that we have gotten from sources. Ok here is what it says.

It says "Military radar that tracked Flight MH370 between 1:19 a.m. and 2:40 a.m. show that the aircraft did change altitude after making a sharp turn over the South China Sea and as it headed towards the Strait of Malacca. And that is -- and that it was flying as low as 12,000 feet at some point before it disappeared from radar." That's a source close to the investigation into the missing flight. That's what they're telling CNN.

"The official who is not authorized to speak to the media told CNN that the area MH370 flew in after the turn is a heavily-trafficked air corridor and that flying at 12,000 feet would have kept the jet well out of the way of that traffic."

The source also said "the sharp turn seemed to be intentional because it would have taken the Boeing 777 two minutes to execute it -- a noticeable time period for anyone onboard to notice. Also, had there been a fire on the flight, the pilot or the co-pilot would have triggered an emergency signal which didn't happen. That's what the source says.

And I just want to give you this information because some of this information in relation to this information we have reported, the fact -- these facts do concern -- confirm that some of the details that have already been reported.

About the 12,000 feet angle, that is a new breaking news here. These details elaborate on what happened. But not why it happened, obviously; if we knew that, that would be a big piece of the puzzle. At 12,000 feet, a 777 jet is still very obvious on radar. It is not a radar evading height by any means."

And then again, according to our Barbara Starr, she's reporting that the Malaysian military radar readings may not be entirely accurate because of the distance the planes are measured from the ground. All of these points have been made here tonight. This information that I just read, especially the bottom part, it comes from CNN's Richard Quest and also Barbara Starr and also from one of our producers, Raum Gopal.

So anyway, that is the breaking news here on CNN. My experts, my analysts are here to give you all the information you need to analyze this new information as well as other information coming in. And let's not forget, at this point there are apparatus in the sky. There are airplanes looking for debris in a number of different places. Debris that has been spotted by satellite and also there are at least 239 families who are waiting for some answers.

We're back in a moment.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: This is CNN Breaking News.

LEMON: The breaking news here on CNN is that that plane made a sharp left turn according to radar that tracked it, military radar and then dropped to 12,000 feet. That's coming to a source close to the investigation into CNN. So we're getting the breaking news here. And we're going to follow up on it.

First, though, I want to get to our reporter on the ground who is helping with this breaking news. Saima Mohsin live for us in Kuala Lumpur. Saima, what do you know?

SAIMA MOHSIN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Don, we wanted to share this with you as soon as we learned from this military source about the military radar picking up the flight. As it made that turn, we know it made a turn. We know that it headed towards the Strait of Malacca, so westwards back over Malaysia. We didn't know that it had dropped to 12,000 feet.

Now, according to the radar, sometime between 1:19 and 2:40 the plane dropped to 12,000 feet. It opens up a range of possibilities. It is a small but significant development, Don. We have had the drip feed of information. But this is a crucial piece of the puzzle. Why did it drop to 12,000 feet? That's around 4,000 meters. Was there a catastrophic failure onboard that simply didn't allow the pilot or co- pilot time to communicate?

Let's not forget that it is "aviate, navigate, communicate" as far as protocol is concerned onboard. Were they trying to get the plane to an altitude where people onboard could breathe easily because of depressurization or decompression onboard? Was there a fire in the cockpit that made them make that turn back? Perhaps it was a u-turn. We know that this took around two minutes on a 777. Was that a 90 degree to 180 degree turn? ` And Don, let me just share with you, a couple of weeks ago I went out to Kota Bharu on the northeast of Malaysia, just off the coast of the South China Sea. And I spoke to some fishermen who were out fishing, night fishing that night. They saw a low flying aircraft. They said it was extraordinary. They have never seen a plane flying so low.

But crucially, Don, Kota Bharu Airport has a runway long enough for a 777 to land on, 2,400 meters long -- that's around 7,900 feet. Was the plane turning around to make an emergency landing at that Kota Bharu Airport before it disappeared off the radar? We don't know just yet. But these are possibilities that now investigators can explore.

And of course, the families are holding on to every piece of information, Don. It's daylight here now on day 17. We have, as I said, been drip fed this information. But this is a crucial piece of information that will lend itself to the investigation into the disappearance of Flight MH370 -- Don. LEMON: Absolutely. And Saima, as we've been reporting here on CNN, the families are really awaiting word to figure out exactly what happened to their loved ones. They want some answers at this point. We must keep that top of mind.

Stand by Saima Mohsin live for us in Kuala Lumpur.

I want to get straight to Perth now -- Australia, of course, where CNN's Kyung Lah is stationed. Kyung, any reaction from Perth so far to this new information about the radar that tracked any drop in altitude?

KYUNG LAH, CNN CORRESPONDENT: -- coming from Australia is actually finding any debris. What we're in the middle of is just the very beginning of the fifth day of the search led by Australia. We have just learned that three planes are now in the air. They are starting the search -- two from China, one from Australia, a total of ten planes today with a number of countries. The United States, New Zealand, Australia, Japan, China. They're going to be fanning out over the search area.

There's a new tactic today. They're going to try to cover more ground. Split the search by several different countries. Try to cover more ground. Why? Today is a critical day. The weather is going to turn later on today, Don. They are looking at the clock ticking. With the weather turning it's going to make this difficult trip even more challenging -- Don.

LEMON: Absolutely. More urgency now that they have good weather and then a storm on the other side. Thank you very much for that Kyung Lah. We'll check back with you throughout the evening here on CNN.

Our breaking news is that according to a source close to this investigation telling CNN that radar tracked this flight, making that sharp left turn as it approached Vietnamese air space and then dropping down rapidly to 12,000 feet.

CNN's Martin Savidge has been standing by for us throughout this coverage in a Boeing 777 simulator. Martin Savidge, what are you working on for us that you're going to give us on the other side of the break?

MARTIN SAVIDGE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Don. Just as you pointed out, Don, what we're doing is taking those numbers you've got, the altitude and the sharp turn. We're plugging them into the system here. And we'll see if it really plays out. If it really works in the aircraft like it does apparently in the report.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

LEMON: So the breaking news here on CNN is that the plane made a sharp left turn then dropped in altitude to 12,000 feet as it approached Vietnamese air space. Does that work? Does this particular scenario work? What would happen if that did happen? Martin Savidge standing by for us in a Boeing 777 simulator -- Martin, take it away. SAVIDGE: All right. Well, let's show you. First of all, you heard the description it's a sharp turn. Here's what we would say a sharp turn in an aircraft like this would feel like. And we'll -- taking off, and you see the alarm that goes off? It's warning that we're already turning, you know, more than this airplane really should. And you can see by the horizon, you know, this is very dramatic. What's the degree of turn here?

MITCHELL CASADO, PILOT TRAINER: This is about 40 degrees.

SAVIDGE: Ok. That's a really sharp turn. So now set it back up straight. Put it on autopilot again. Because, remember, the information that this source is giving us, it says that that turn took two minutes to complete. That is a very long time to make a 90 or even 180 degree turn -- an extraordinary amount of time for this aircraft.

In fact, we'll try to give you a sense of what that kind of a two- minute turn would feel like. And this is it, right? We're doing it now. It's barely perceptible. I mean it's slight. You'll get it. But if you were a passenger, once we straighten off, you would not sit here and say, boy, this is like, something really, really wrong. This is a very subtle, slow turn.

It's sharp in that it will deviate you from the course to Beijing eventually. But the perception that you're like banking as if in a fighter craft, that's not what the simulator reflects on that.

Ok. So, let's go into the altitude issue. Remember the flight was at 35,000 feet. We say that it drops to 12,000 feet. But that reading on radar was over an hour and 40 minutes. So here's a precipitous drop. Let's just do a real -- if you threw this over the top and sent us down, kind of a dive. Nose down.

Again, all the alarms that you're getting -- bells and whistles warning you you're going way too fast. You're going to over speed. Doubtful they did anything like this. There's the ocean straight ahead. So pull it back. Remember, if it really was over an hour and 40 minutes, that descent could have been very, very gradual. So what we're saying here is that those actions do not indicate emergency. It's not a sharp turn to go to some emergency landing. And it's not necessarily a steep descent to get down for the passengers to breathe. It could have been a slow descent and a gradual turn. That's what the simulator tells us.

LEMON: Ok. Stand by. Don't go anywhere, Martin because I want to bring our panel back in now to discuss this. Mary Schiavo, of course, is with us. Mark Weiss is with us. Miles O'Brien, Steve Wallace, Les Abend and Shawn Pruchnicki is with us as well. Miles O'Brien, I understand you have a question.

O'BRIEN: Yes. And there's quite a few variables to consider here including the wind and a lot of things. But I wonder if Mitchell and Martin could plug in the amount of fuel that would be projected to be onboard at that time. And project out at 12,000 feet with the fuel burn and see how far that aircraft would fly. Have you done that yet, guys? SAVIDGE: No, we haven't. That's actually something that did occur to us. We were figuring what the fuel burn would be at 35,000, of course. Then what it would be at 12,000.

(CROSSTALK)

LEMON: All right. Let's wait on that one. Let's wait on that one, though. Let's stick with this particular one. We'll get that one in -- we'll try to get that one in for you, Miles. So the question is, Les, you had a very good question. And I think he may have answered it. You said something was at a bank or was at a turn?

ABEND: I think I got it answered. I want to distinguish between a sharp bank angle versus a sharp turn. In other words, how far was the turn? Was the turn made rapidly in direction? That was my question. But I think --

LEMON: Here's the thing. You know, someone is saying it would take two minutes, right? Two minutes is the normal sort of textbook turn.

ABEND: What we call a standard turn.

LEMON: We don't know that. I haven't seen any place, Marty. I haven't seen anywhere here where it says two minutes. That was sort of a guesstimate about how long it takes to do a turn that is a normal turn. But as you pointed out in the beginning of this, you said a sharp turn. So if you're turning that thing very quickly, Marty, I think the passengers on the back -- in the back of the aircraft obviously would notice it. It would be similar to the turn that you did at the beginning of your demonstration there.

SAVIDGE: Yes. The initial turn that we did would have been very alarming to any passenger in the back because things would be tipping over. Even if you were asleep you would feel this. Things would move in the cabin. So that kind of a steep bank would have been very, very noticeable. An easy, gradual turn you can do in the middle of the night like that and be barely noticed especially since it's dark.

LEMON: Yes, so Mitchell, I want to get your -- your take on this. I want to read it to you because I don't know if you've heard exactly what has happened because you've been working on the different scenarios there. Here's the information.

They're saying that between 1:19 and 2:40 that military radar obviously showed the aircraft did have a change in altitude after making a sharp turn -- ok, Mitchell -- over the South China Sea headed toward the Strait of Malacca. And that it was flying at 12,000 feet.

So given this information, I haven't heard anything except for different scenarios that we have been talking with our experts about. That it normally takes two minutes to do a turn like. And we don't know if it was two minutes. We don't know how long it took. I think people are just trying to figure out how long it would normally take to do it.

So given this new information, Mitchell, what do you make of this? CASADO: Well, I'll tell you, normally this aircraft flies what we call IFR. In an IFR, every turn is supposed to be -- not every turn, but standard rate turn is three degrees per second -- three degrees every second. You have 360 degrees in a circle. So two minutes to me at a standard rate would take you right back where you started. If you did a 180 that says to me two minutes, 1.5 degrees per second you're heading the other way which seems like in this case.

For the altitude, 12,000 feet, every air route IFR has three important altitudes we have to maintain above. MEA -- Minimum en route altitude; MRA -- minimum reception altitude, this is the altitude below which you wouldn't get reception for the radio. And minimum en route clearance altitude which you have to maintain above if you're going to clear obstacles.

12,000 feet, I'm told is below all of these altitudes -- unheard of. You would never do that. You would if you were trying to do something you weren't supposed to do be an altitude that you want. But if you were trying to do an emergency, trying to save the airplane, no, you would be above that.

LEMON: Les?

ABEND: I think it would be more compelling to me if I had some sort of issue that involved oxygen. Well, albeit the fire or hypoxia. I wouldn't be concerned about, you know, regulated altitudes and receptions and so on and so forth. My objective would be survival.

LEMON: So, Mitchell, then the follow-up to there is -- to that is, if you are -- if something is, indeed, happening in the cockpit and you're trying to get down -- if you're trying to get down to a lower altitude, right, of flying, you would be trying to find the nearest airport that could support landing a 777 or trying to get the cockpit clear of whatever it is that's filling the cockpit. So that's -- that's sort of the follow up that would this be out of the ordinary to do a quick turn like that and get down? Go ahead, Mitchell.

CASADO: Yes. I would -- like you were saying, you get down. You vent the cabin. But you're also talking on the radio. If you're going to do any of this, you're talking on the radio. So I would question why they didn't do that. Why didn't they get on the radio?

Yes, in an emergency, you aren't paying attention to regulated altitudes. But you're also talking on the radio. And the fact they didn't do that tells me that the person flying wasn't -- you know, what I mean. So that might be a problem.

MARTIN SAVIDGE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: We don't know how long it took them to descend either. Remember, that report is over an hour and 40 minutes. There's no suggestion that was a dive.

LEMON: Right. What were you saying, Les?

I think Les and Mary said, you're right, Marty, there's no, we don't know here if there was a dive. But in that particular situation, as Mary said, they're working feverishly. Mary Schiavo, former inspector general for the U.S. Department of Transportation said if they're working feverishly, they may not have time to communicate. You said the same thing as well.

LES ABEND, CNN AVIATION ANALYST: I did. Absolutely. You've got to delegate your priorities. Communicating at that point in time is - like I've said before, it just may have not have been a priority right then and there.

LEMON: And Mitchell, that is a good question. Because that's what - initially that's what we said. You're right. That was the first thing that everyone said. Why wouldn't they communicate some sort of emergency.

CASADO: Well, it's true that you aviate first then navigate. But communication is not far behind. It's not like it's 50th on the list. These guys sounded like they were aviating and navigating. They turned. They had a destination for that turn. They were aviating fine. The airplane. To me communication was right there.

We should also point out in order to communicate it's not like you have to reach up and turn on a radio or turn a knob. There's a simple lever that's on the back of the yoke. It's a switch your hand is already on if you've got your hand on the yoke. You just click it and talk. It's that simple. And in almost all the other emergencies that have been declared, you take a look at Value Jet that went down in just over three minutes. They were still communicating even though they were having catastrophic fire.

LEMON: Yes. OK. Stand by. Go ahead. Les wants to get in.

ABEND: Well, I think everything that Marty and Mitch are saying is absolutely true. You should communicate. But in the case of Value Jet, they were already on departure control for Miami. They were already talking to an air traffic controller. All they had to do was say, "Hey, we got this problem." And they headed - they started to head back to the airport.

In this particular case, they had been handed off to another frequency that they may not have been able to contact or perhaps that event occurred prior to being able to reach them. And it wouldn't have done them any good at that point.

LEMON: OK. Marty, Mitchell, stand by. Everyone stand by. Don't go anywhere. We have much, much more on this breaking news right after this very quick break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

LEMON: All right.

The breaking news here on CNN is that we have learned from sources close to the investigation, a source close to the investigation, that the plane made a sharp turn, Flight 370, and then according to military radar, it picked it up doing that and then dropped to 12,000 feet. What does that mean? We're trying to figure it out here on CNN. Joining us now is Mitchell Casado and also Martin Savidge. They're in a flight simulator. They're trying to fit in this particular scenario for us into that simulator.

Also joining us is Mary Schiavo, the former inspector general for the Department of Transportation. Captain Mark Weiss, who is an aviation analyst and a former American Airlines pilot. Also, Miles O'Brien, obviously a pilot and an analyst here on CNN. Very familiar to us here. Steve Wallace is an accident investigator. Les Abend, a 777 pilot and Shawn Pruchnicki is a air safety expert from Ohio State University.

Thanks to all of you for joining us.

We have Mitchell and Martin back with us, right?

OK. So I understand, Mitchell, Captain Weiss has a question for you. What do you have, captain?

CAPT. MARK WEISS, AVIATION ANALYST: If you're going to do a high dive, going down to 12,000 feet from altitude, maybe you can show how quick - how easy it is and how little time it takes to put an oxygen mask on and then communicate through that oxygen mask. You alluded to it earlier.

SAVIDGE: We would love to do that except the simulator doesn't have oxygen masks. So we haven't got one we could actually, you know, yank out or hold out and put on. We can show you a very quick descent. That's not a problem. In fact, we've just set up to do that now.

LEMON: OK. Marty, if you have a quick descent, let's do it. Let's look at it.

CASADO: OK. Here we go. Out comes the autopilot. Down goes the nose. You can hear the synch rate alarm go off. Over speed. Exceeding the speed the aircraft should fly. Straight down. 24,000. 23,000. 22,000. Aiming for 12,000. 16, 15, 14, 13, now we've started to pull out.

There it is.

SAVIDGE: 11,000, 12,000 feet.

LEMON: Yes.

SAVIDGE: Uncomfortable.

LEMON: It's uncomfortable watching it, you know, even here, watching it. Steve Wallace, as an accident investigator, you know, we're going through these particular scenarios. And I think that Mark Weiss brings up a very good point. If you have an oxygen mask on and you're trying to communicate and all these things, you know, what does all that mean? Go ahead, Steve Wallace.

STEVE WALLACE, AVIATION SAFETY CONSULTANT: Well, I'm surprised they don't have them in the simulator because they train to do that and they have these click on oxygen masks. I've flown smaller pressurized airplanes and they're designed you can put them on in a few seconds. They're right up behind you. Just reach up and pull it down. So - and you can be breathing oxygen in just a few seconds.

I don't question the priorities as described by Captain Abend. But also the point by Captain Mark Weiss and Mitchell Casado, you know, that it doesn't take much as Martin Savidge said. There's a push to talk right on the yoke in your hand. Your hand is on it. I would note, we're talking here based on evidence from an unknown source.

I heard about this turn and descent several days ago. I was pleased to see we went to your correspondent in Perth. It would appear that the people who are closest to this investigation with the best firsthand information are still very much - I mean, with 10 airplanes today, so it seems to me that those people are still focused on that southern arc.

LEMON: As you were talking there about what you said about the communication and what you were actually gesturing what would happen. What were you - you were saying when you're getting the oxygen mask -

ABEND: Well, just in the 777, the oxygen masks are very accessible.

LEMON: You have to raise your hands so the viewer can see it. You can do the two shot if you will, guys.

ABEND: The oxygen mask is actually almost right by - I know we're not getting a camera on it. But it's right by your leg. You literally just have to reach down, grab it and it actually goes around your face. It actually sucks around your face like out of the "Alien" movie. It's a very efficient mask.

LEMON: And you can communicate.

ABEND: And you can communicate just as Martin and Mitchell said in the simulator. You can communicate very well just by hitting the yoke. Assuming somebody's going to hear you. But you know, I'm not focusing on the lack of communication issue.

LEMON: Shawn Pruchnicki, anything you want to ask our panel or you want to relay to Martin and Mitchell?

SHAWN PRUCHNICKI, AVIATION SAFETY PROFESSOR: You know, not specifically them. But to everyone watching is that, you know, we need to be very aware that with - we're making this statement that there was no communication. And we don't know that to be true. Although we don't have any recordings of any - of any communication, the crew could have been, in fact, pushing the push to talk switch and could have been trying to communicate.

So saying that no communication or the crew didn't try to communicate really isn't known yet. They could have been doing that feverishly, in fact.

LEMON: Yes. If there's something that happened, whether it was a fire or something, malfunction, could the communications be cut?

ABEND: Absolutely. Absolutely. But that's - that was a good statement that was just made.

LEMON: We don't know.

ABEND: We don't know. The crew may have been attempting to communicate. Exactly right. We don't have evidence of it. Just as we don't have real solid evidence of this - of this descent.

LEMON: I'm watching Mary Schiavo. Mary, seems like you want to weigh in here. Go ahead.

MARY SCHIAVO, CNN AVIATION ANALYST: Yes. And one of the previous guests said, mentioned the Value Jet flight 92 situation. They had three minutes and they communicated. But there's a flip side there. They had three minutes, and their last communication was we're on fire. We're completely on fire. But they didn't get on their smoke hoods, on their oxygen masks.

And so they made a choice. They were fighting and communicating. But then they didn't do the one thing that would have given them some oxygen. It wouldn't have made a difference. I'm not criticizing those poor pilots at all. But they didn't put on their masks.

LEMON: OK. Great analysis. Thank you very much from everyone. Also Mitchell Casado, Martin Savidge. Stand by. We're going to be back with our breaking news right here on CNN right after a very quick break.

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LEMON: I'm Don Lemon in New York. Breaking news here on CNN.

We are learning about the plane's altitude, a rapid change in altitude and also a sharp turn coming from a source close to this investigation telling CNN that military radar tracked flight 370 making that turn shortly before it entered Vietnamese air space and turning over the South China Sea as it headed back toward the Strait of Malacca. That is the new information that we're going over with our experts.

Martin Savidge, Mitchell Casado standing by in a triple 777 flight stimulator. And also joining us this evening, Mary Schiavo is the former inspector general for the Department of Transportation, Captain Mark Weiss is with us as well. Miles O'Brien is here. Les Abend and also Shawn Pruchnicki. And just joining us now is Bobby Sholey. She is a retired navy captain and a retired navy diver.

I'm sorry, say again, Sholey, retired navy diver. My producers are telling me something. Say again, please. Skoley. Thank you very much. We apologize for that. Scholey. Thank you, Captain Scholey.

So let's go, continue on what we're talking about here. As Les Abend pointed out, Les Abend said that there is - if you are in some sort of catastrophic situation in an emergency, right, and this particular plane you said had just been given new frequencies, that may explain the lack of communication if there was, indeed, a lack of communication. They may have been trying.

ABEND: They may have been trying. But they were handed off to Ho Chi Minh city.

LEMON: Right.

ABEND: Which is on the en route chart, everybody knows. It's 1:20 decible 9. That's the frequency they were given. I'm sure it sounded like the situation is all normal on board when we got the infamous "All right. Good night." He dialed in the frequency. Maybe attempted to contact them. They may know in that area, I'm not familiar, I've never flown in that area of the world. But they may know it'll take a few minutes to get a hold of Ho Chi Minh center.

LEMON: And Miles O'Brien, I believe, you make the same point. If they had just been handed over a new frequency. I hope Martin and Mitchell are listening to this. Because the point is, is that if you've just been handed over to a new frequency, you'd have to dial that frequency. Right, guys? And then, you know, there may not - there would be all kinds of noise in the cockpit, in the cabin. Go ahead, Miles. You want to present that to Martin?

O'BRIEN: Yes. There are two things to consider. They had just had the handoff. In other words, the frequency change. They were told to go on to 120.9. And so what a pilot does when they say good night, is at that same moment you flip the radios. If nothing else so you don't forget the frequency. And it stands to reason that two things happen.

First of all, they probably didn't have time to make contact with Ho Chi Minh. They might have been in a dead spot. You know, a lot of times you make those frequency changes, it takes a little while to raise the controller. So then in that scenario if something bad happened, the thing to do would be to go to the previous frequency, Kuala Lumpur.

But that's one more thing to think about when you've got all kinds of bad things happening at once. So it just adds one more thing to the mix and helps explain why maybe they didn't get the radio call. Maybe they were trying to call on the Ho Chi Minh City frequency, 120.9. And it - no one was hearing it.

LEMON: Mitchell, Marty, you want to talk about that?

SAVIDGE: Well, we were. We were actually just talking about that while you were discussing it, too. Especially after what Les brought up. That is that, yes, you're talking about you're in the middle of these two frequencies, essentially. You've had a calamity that's occurred. Mitchell, you were pointing out how just inadvertently maybe somebody could have entered a wrong frequency. Thought it was the right one they've entered but remember, you're diving. You're dealing with whatever crises. You got chaos and alarm. So let me just demonstrate how you could -

CASADO: One wrong digit and it is the wrong frequency. It's true. They could have thought they were on the right frequency and they weren't. That's possible. So then they would be triggering the microphone believing they're communicating and they're over and over and over saying something. But in fact they're not being heard. Inadvertently somehow the wrong frequency had been entered in that emergency moment. CASADO: And the secondary radio is also on 121.5. So you know, if they did have an emergency, they would have gone to 121.5 with the push of a button. And there it is. It is always there for that reason.

SAVIDGE: Yes.

I look at this right here. It could be confusing obviously to somebody who uses it every day, it is not. There is a lot of buttons and a lot of stuff to enter.

LEMON: Les Abend says - go ahead.

ABEND: Just to supplement to what Miles was saying. Yes, there was confusion and we agree with that possible scenario. But that doesn't preclude the fact that the emergency frequency that we all monitor as pilots and air traffic controllers was probably set on the other radio which would normally is the right radio that we set it on.

So that doesn't preclude the fact that they could have communicated on the emergency frequency. That had already been set.

LEMON: You were saying the information in regard to, they will find what Marty was talking about?

ABEND: Well, what I was saying was when they find the airplane they will be able to determine what frequency was in that left radio which is a primary radio they use for communication.

LEMON: You believe they will. You said this. I said when or if. You said they will find this plane. Why do you believe that?

ABEND: I just believe there are so many assets and resources out there. And we're all putting our collective heads together. And that airplane will be found.

LEMON: You've been listening Shawn Pruchnicki to Mr. Casado and to Martin Savidge, this is what - these are scenarios that investigators go over as they are trying to figure out what happened.

PRUCHNICKI: That's exactly right. And you know, it is all about drawing from these different experiences and these different (INAUDIBLE) not only with what we have seen in past accidents but also what are the possibilities for this. I think one thing that's really important that we haven't really touched on at all, is that wearing these types, if that's what was going on. And the crew members were wearing these oxygen masks as a former airline pilot as well. I can tell you that it is not easy to wear these masks and to push a lot of buttons and dial in really smaller displays and so forth.

You add a little obscuration like smoke in the cockpit. This can make it very challenging. So as we are talking through this and thinking about this, we should just be mindful. As I know many of the folks on the panel with me tonight have done just that in training. That it is not as easy as it sounds. As we might be, as we're sitting in chairs thinking about actually performing it.

LEMON: Yes.

I want to bring the retired Navy Captain Scholley in because you can give us some information. We've been talking about what possibly happened with the turn. We should be, should keep in mind that they are searching for debris from this plane over the Indian Ocean now. And they are up against really some treacherous waters. Some really poor weather conditions. And if, you know, Ls Abend says here, hey, listen, he believes they're going to find this plane. It won't be easy, captain.

CAPT. BOBBIE SCHOLLEY, U.S. NAVY (RET.): No. It is not. And the longer it takes us to find evidence that the aircraft might have go down in this part of the ocean, the harder it will be. If we don't find something on the surface that tells us that there is aircraft debris there, it is going to get harder and harder, the weather is going to pick up. Any debris that might have been on the surface is going to be dispersed further. It's going to be harder to find it as we get into the winter months. And everything gets pushed further and further away from where the aircraft possibly went into the water.

The debris will start sinking if there is debris on the surface. And it will be pushed further away. And then any chance if we do find aircraft debris on the surface, any chance of mobilizing an underwater search operation is going to get harder and harder to do as the weather turns harsher.

LEMON: Yes.

And let's not forget, Captain Weiss, we are up against time especially when it comes to the timing left on those pingers. They're set for 30 days. Maybe a little longer but we're running out of time here.

WEISS: You know, I think, there are as many questions raised as we've had in the past. Again, we're still dealing with some level of unknown and uncertainty. There is still a great deal of ambiguity in the information that is coming out. We really haven't seen the transcripts. We haven't heard air traffic control tapes.

If this captain was a check airman, a training pilot, had been flying for Malaysian Airlines for many, many years and knew that he might be turning off into a corridor of heavily traffic, of heavy traffic, he could have transmitted something perhaps, what they call in the blind. Just on that 121.5 frequency or if he is still on a frequency that he had been assigned to by his previous controller.

So very interesting to hear the tapes to see whether or not that happened. It still doesn't preclude the idea that there could have been somebody in the cockpit, perhaps making them do some things under duress.

LEMON: Captain, hold that thought. Hold that thought. We'll continue to follow up after this very quick break. Don't go anywhere.

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