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The Search for Flight 370; More Debris Sighted By Satellites

Aired March 27, 2014 - 15:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

BROOKE BALDWIN, CNN ANCHOR: And we roll on, top of the next hour. I'm Brooke Baldwin.

You are watching CNN's special live coverage of Flight 370.

Here's the news today, the search is zeroing in, thanks to a cluster now of satellite images streaming in from all around the world, news just into here at CNN. Japan is saying that its satellites have found about 10 objects floating right there in the Southern Indian Ocean. One piece -- this is according to Japan -- some 26 feet long by 13 feet in width.

And nearby -- and this is the biggie -- this is from the Thailand satellite imagery spotting 300 separate objects snapped by their satellite Monday. And experts there took it a step further upon analysis. The adjective they are using to describe these specks, for lack of a better word, this is shiny.

Adding to this intrigue here, they were seen just 125 miles from the area where that French satellite spotted some 100 objects floating in the ocean. The question now, could all of these sightings be the same possible debris field moving quickly with currents in the rough Indian Ocean. And despite all these pictures and these new leads, the task here of actually getting to the objects, physically getting there, is becoming increasingly difficult.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

LT. CMDR. ADAM SCHANTZ, U.S. NAVY: We were informed the weather was zero visibility with spear turbulence and spear icing, fairly high- risk flying conditions, and with the visibility the way it is, a very low probability of seeing anything out there at all.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: This means, translation, all search planes are grounded until further notice.

But I want to focus here on these pictures featuring especially the one 300 possible shiny objects.

Joining me to discuss, CNN aviation analyst Jeff Wise.

Jeff Wise, nice to have you on.

You are a science journalist. And many of us are reading your pieces each and every day just to see what you are seeing here. But out of the gate, when you look at these pictures and these clusters, if you will, of these possible debris fields, sir, what do you see?

JEFF WISE, CNN AVIATION ANALYST: When you look at it, for one thing, it's hard to recognize something that looks really airplane-like.

You remember Air France 447, which everyone keeps referring back to, that iconic image of that Air France tail fin, the red, white, and blue. It was just -- you knew in a glance that that's what we were talking about. There hasn't been anything in the images, any of the images we have been seeing for weeks now that really has that kind of resonance.

It could be different parts of the airplane and different states of having fallen apart and so forth. That's not to say that this is not the real deal. But, at the same time day after day been tantalized by the evidence.

BALDWIN: I was thinking teased. Tantalized is exactly right. It's the perfect word.

WISE: Right. It's frustrating and yet it makes you want to see more. It's frustrating that these searchers on the sea and in the air above it are having such a hard time getting to the material. It seems -- you would think, OK, there, we see it, it's there, go get it.

(CROSSTALK)

WISE: Not that easy at all.

BALDWIN: They had to bail yesterday because the weather was so horrendous, 3:00 in the morning there right now, so hopefully it's a little bit better. But from talking to correspondents on the ground, it's not really.

But let me ask you this. As we look at the different pictures, look like specks to us, right, incredibly far away, but I'm curious with your knowledge of planes, this is the if, forgive me, the if, it is plane debris. What from the plane in all these different little pieces would be floating?

WISE: Well, don't forget, every time you get on a plane, in the event you're paying attention to the briefing...

BALDWIN: Seat cushions.

WISE: The seat cushions. Right. Every seat that your butt is on is a thing that is designed to float. A 777 can have different configurations, but around 400 seats. There's lots of potential stuff. Those going to be pretty small. That will be about the lower limit of what a satellite can see.

But they float really well. Some of these other things, maybe you will have a wing that drained all of its fuel. It's got a big air pocket there where the fuel used to be. If that can maintain its structural integrity, it's like a boat, essentially. If it's partially compromised, it might be half-sunk and half-afloat. They might be -- so things that are partially submerged won't seem as big and so forth.

BALDWIN: OK. Let me move off the debris to your "Slate" piece that we read that came out, because you are asking the questions on this groundbreaking map, your word, from this British satellite company Inmarsat used to determine the plane's path ending as they now have said. That was big news earlier in the week there in the Southern Indian Ocean.

You mentioned possible caveats, Jeff Wise, to their analysis. Such as?

WISE: Right.

The big caveat, the big unknown, as it were, is in order to make this calculation work, you have to plug in at the beginning a presumed speed. They used 450 knots, which I guess is a reasonable speed to use, because every plane flies at a most efficient speed at a most efficient altitude.

They tend to stay. It's Mach 0.82 in the case of the 777, which the speed that corresponds to Mach 0.82 varies with the altitude. But so presuming this speed and presuming this -- there is a route that you can plug in. And then you get a certain point at which it would arrive.

There's uncertainties as to winds aloft and so forth, so instead of generating a point, you generate an area. That's your -- you get a sort of probability map of where the debris is likely to be based on your output position.

But it's a very impressive, very impressive piece of mathematical deduction, but it requires some assumptions going in to work. And we should just be aware of that. In the document that Inmarsat and the Malaysians put together, they show if your assumption is 400 knots instead of 450, you wind up with a very different search area.

In effect, the route bends to the north. And so it remains on that famous arc that we have been seeing for weeks now. But it's much further to the north. If we keep not finding debris in this area and eventually -- very tricky things. If you're doing a ground search, if this all was happening on the ground, you could just lay out a grid and you search, search, search, and if you don't find everything, you can say definitively, OK, it's not here. Let's look somewhere else.

(CROSSTALK)

BALDWIN: Not that easy. It's the ocean.

WISE: Currents moving around. You can't see all the time. You don't know.

You might see that this particular area here is clear and this area is clear, but in between it's covered by a cloud.

BALDWIN: This is the roaring 40s, as they say. This is like one of the worst areas possible in the world for this to have happened.

But, Jeff Wise, all the questions and the mathematical deductions, and the caveats, this is part of the reason why these families are saying, yes, we don't necessarily believe this. We need proof. They want the debris. Here's hoping they get it. Jeff Wise, thank you so much. I really appreciate it.

And when it comes to this investigation today, an ex-Malaysia Airlines CEO sat actually down with our correspondent there Jim Clancy. People blaming the pilot, he said they are wrong.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JIM CLANCY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: You knew Captain Shah. Some people point a finger at him.

ABDUL AZIZ ABDUL RAHMAN, FORMER CEO, MALAYSIA AIRLINES: He's an excellent pilot and I think also an excellent gentleman. I think they are going the wrong way pointing a finger at him.

CLANCY: You also knew the co-pilot. What can you say about him?

RAHMAN: I think he's just a nice young man and a good young man, because I come from the same place.

His father learned the Koran by heart. He teaches the Koran. So, he also learned the Koran by heart. He's a good Muslim. I know that the captain is a good Muslim.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: Let me take you now to the jumping-off point for these searches to Perth, Australia.

Will Ripley is standing by past just 3:00 in the morning your time.

We talk about the weather. It was nasty yesterday. Search crews had to bail. How is today faring?

WILL RIPLEY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: The planes are due to take off beginning about two hours from now.

The plan is that they will try to fly and see what happens. It's about a four-hour flight to get out to the search area, 1,700 miles from Perth, where we are right now. Anything can happen between now and then. We are told by the local weather forecasters that there should be a good window of opportunity in the morning for some good visibility. That will help not only the planes flying over this area looking for these debris fields. It will also help the five ships that are on the ocean right now.

They have been riding out the storm, but haven't been able to do much because the debris that they're looking for is floating so radar is pretty much useless. They need a visual line of sight and visibility has been nonexistent because of the gale-force winds, the heavy rain, and all the low-hanging clouds. BALDWIN: Will Ripley, let me throw something at you. You may not have the answer and that's OK, but as we talk about the search window right this morning, do you have any idea even how long it would take the planes to fly to where we think the debris is?

RIPLEY: Yes. It takes about three-and-a-half to four hours just to get there.

That's really -- that's why they are taking off so early at 5:00 a.m., before the sun even comes up. It's because they want to try to maximize the daylight and maximize the good weather. We have been lucky. We have had a couple of days where the weather was pretty decent, but yesterday we thought the weather was going to be pretty good. It turned out to be awful, actually dangerous conditions.

There was ice forming on the wings of the planes. They had to turn around. And when these crew members were told that their flights were grounded -- there were couple flights that never made it off the ground, including the crew of a U.S. P-8 -- CNN was there with them.

They were visibly upset and disappointed that they were not able to fly. They want to go out there. They want to try to find something tangible and bring it back to the families.

BALDWIN: How incredibly frustrating. And then again back to we heard sound from Jim Clancy's interview with the former Malaysia Airlines CEO defending this pilot. We are hearing from the pilot's youngest son, breaking his silence. What did he say, Will?

RIPLEY: Yes. You know, he was interviewed by "The New Straits Times," one of the two major newspapers in Kuala Lumpur.

And they have been on this story just like we have, trying to get what they can. They did five-minute interview with this young man, 26 years old, the youngest son who has lost his father and listened to his father be called everything from a hero to a hijacker.

The quote that he told the paper when talking about all the speculation about what happened to Flight 370, he said -- quote -- "I have read everything online. But I have ignored all the speculation. I know my father better."

This is a young man whose family is going through so much. He is trying to stay strong. But he said as hard as it this for him, it's even harder for some of the other members of his family. They are struggling right now, just like all the other families of those 239 people.

BALDWIN: Will Ripley in Perth, thank you so much, Will. Appreciate you.

Coming up next, we will take a closer look at the part of the flight that may offer the most clues into what happened the first hour, because within that hour, that's when the transponder stopped communicating and the co-pilot radioed in that "All right, good night" and that's also when the plane changed course. Have we learned more about why any of that happened?

Plus, we have been telling you the battery in the so-called black box lasts for about 30 days. But now CNN has learned Malaysia Airlines allegedly has a track record for storing the batteries improperly. Coming up, how that could change the search.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BALDWIN: Welcome back. I'm Brooke Baldwin.

In the flight for -- search for Flight 370, Japan and Thailand both are reporting objects spotted by satellite appearing floating there in the ocean. The biggie today, those 300 objects, this is according to Thailand. Japan said they spotted 10 more.

But this is what I want to reexamine here, because we're three weeks out and let's just reconstruct, if you would, the crucial phase of what many believe is the airplane's catastrophic journey.

To help with that, I have Captain Kit Darby, retired airline pilot and aviation consultant joining me here in studio seven. And also standing by is CNN's Richard Quest, our aviation correspondent here.

Gentlemen, welcome back.

And, Captain Kit Darby, I know that this part intrigues you, because as we look at this -- and we're going to throw this up here -- some 40 minutes after takeoff, that is when the airplane, as we watched the red line, this is when it takes that left turn. It veers off course.

And we see it right here and as it heads back over Malaysia, as we learned over the weekend, it descends down to 12,000 feet.

You, sir, believe the intent is clear here as it is descending that this thing was, this bird was trying to land.

KIT DARBY, RETIRED COMMERCIAL PILOT: We had talked about it before.

When it turned and we didn't have descent information, I said, it should be descended. Now that we have some confirmation, both Malaysian radar and Thai radar both have a descent, Malaysia from 45,000, which I would contend could never get that high, and the other one from 35,000, which was its planned cruise down to 12,000, in the direction of a known large accessible airport that the pilot was probably familiar, not descending right away, in the two-minute turn to reverse direction, and then descending.

We don't have a lot of information about how fast. Again, if it was quickly, it would show perhaps a decompression, but otherwise he's descending for landing. He's not in any rush. He just needs to get down by the time he is at the airport. He also turns towards that airport.

The Thai radar reports a northern turn. And they said it's towards a town, which is logical. But right next to this town is this island with this 13,000-foot runway. (CROSSTALK)

DARBY: So, from their point of view, it's towards a town. From the pilot's point of view, there is a long accessible runway for me. That's where he's headed. Now, somewhere shortly thereafter, the airplane turns, Heads South and climbs back.

BALDWIN: Let's get to that in a minute. Can we hit pause on this?

Richard Quest, are we all on the same page? Do you agree at this 12,000-foot mark, allegedly, that this plane looked to be trying to land?

RICHARD QUEST, CNN CORRESPONDENT: No, I don't agree. I don't agree at all.

BALDWIN: No.

QUEST: And I don't agree because we haven't had conversation from any source of the change in altitude.

We have had unofficial sources who we had one source that was reported by one of the U.S. networks that said it went up to 45,000 feet and then down to 23,000 feet. And then during the course of the week, it was either "The Journal" or "The Times." I forget which. They reported this 12,000. And then a source has told CNN about this 12,000.

But, frankly, we have never had it confirmed.

BALDWIN: You are not buying it?

(CROSSTALK)

QUEST: I'm sorry?

BALDWIN: You are not buying this 12,000?

QUEST: It may well be true, but at the moment, we don't know.

And I also don't buy this -- I really don't buy this Langkawi airport theory at the moment, because there were plenty of opportunities coming back over Malaysia where something could have been -- there was some warning. There is an air force base on the western peninsula of Malaysia where in fact the plane was being tracked from. I think it's the Butterworth Air Force Base that would have had a suitable runway.

You have then got the westerly turn out along the Straits of Malacca, which if the captain is right is towards Langkawi, and then you have the southern run, which would then have to take the plane back up to 35,000 feet. So, put it all together, and it may all be true, but we don't actually have a fact on that crucial issue of 12,000 feet.

DARBY: I had the same reaction initially. I have been reading the Asian news sources, which had a few additional facts. The facts were that not just one, but several Thai radars tracked this. We all have a suspicion of the radar track to begin with. But I must tell you, I'm a military pilot. And military radar is designed to intercept airplanes coming in high and fast.

You have to know their azimuth, the spot on the map, you have to know their altitude. They are designed to detect these altitudes. The fact that there is a variance between them, that's true. But each one from 45,000 to 23,000 and 35,000 to 12,000 is the same amount of altitude loss.

The Thai radar is in a much better position to see this from the side. As you get on top of the Malaysian radar, altitude becomes more difficult to determine. I'm going with the Thai radar, several different locations. I agree we don't really know, but I believe that enough cross-referencing is done that we have a descending aircraft.

BALDWIN: I hear you loud and clear.

(CROSSTALK)

QUEST: Just jump in.

Captain, to follow your theory through, After the turn that goes back down south again, that's quite a long way south and back across the Malaysian Peninsula. It's 30-odd minutes or so before you get the westerly turn. Even allowing for decompression or whatever else may be happening -- we know there was clearly some control, because they then did the westerly turn, but no other warning or no other message. What would your theory be on that?

DARBY: No message is very difficult, other than the pilots are so busy or mishandled the intercom, thought they were communicating and were not.

There is not a good answer for that. Every theory you come up with has pretty large holes in it, but from a pilot's point of view, if I was in jeopardy or thought my cockpit was going to be compromised, I would be turning for a known large airport. If I had a mechanical problem, the same thing.

It appears to go in that direction. It doesn't go down to 10,000, which I normally go to, because there 8,000-foot ridges in the middle of Malaysia at night. He might have been giving himself a little extra room. We did have that one radar report of 5,000, which would clearly be a descent for landing.

BALDWIN: We need more facts, gentlemen. We need that debris and I don't know if they will ever find this black box. We shall see. But we have to leave it there. Really appreciate both of you and healthy disagreement.

Kit Darby and Richard Quest, thank you.

Coming up, tracking this debris. A Navy oceanographer is analyzing all the data and the currents, the waves, the winds, the size of possible debris. So he is using all of this to come up with a formula to determine where the debris field would be today. Could it help searchers finally track down these actual items in the ocean and grab them for analysis?

Plus, families in China stuck in a hotel, dealing with the heartache, the mystery and the anguish as they await answers. An expert who has dealt with trauma says this is only adding to the pain. We take a closer look at the trauma of simply waiting, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(STOCK MARKET UPDATE)

BALDWIN: Back in 90 seconds.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BALDWIN: Welcome back. I'm Brooke Baldwin.

And 20 days have ticked by, each day nearing closer to when the plane's black boxes go silent. That is because the pinger that helps search crews locate these black boxes comes with an expiration date, about 30 days of juice, of battery life.

But David Soucie, CNN aviation safety analyst, says he has spoken to an expert who said the batteries may already be dead.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DAVID SOUCIE, CNN AVIATION ANALYST: The batteries for those black boxes are tested on the sea checks every 1,000 hours, but in addition every year they should be changed.

And I asked him. I said, what's the chances it's going to make 30 days or pass 30 days? He said it won't. He says his audit proved that those batteries were stored in a very hot and very humid area. He wrote that up as a problem that needed to be addressed. And yet it wasn't.

The batteries in my estimation, it may not make seven days. It may have not made it today.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: Given what David just said, CNN followed up with the manufacturer of these pingers.

And they told CNN they are not aware of storage concerns and they said he is confident someone would have brought it to his attention, although he does agree that "It's not ideal to store it in hot conditions and, yes, it would shorten the life of the battery."

The big takeaway here, if the pinger is already zapped, how will searchers ever find the plane's black box?

One expert described it. The Indian Ocean can look like a washing machine. Just look at the waves here. This video, by the way, was taken before the plane disappeared, but it shows just how pulverizing the waves can be in this part of the world.

So, Chad Myers, we have been talking a lot about currents going this way and that way and everything else, and then the weather conditions have been awful the last 24 hours.

CHAD MYERS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: You have been obsessed with this roaring 40s thing.

BALDWIN: I have, because it's interesting, the latitude, and how this is just sort of known for chaotic currents.

MYERS: Yes. Absolutely.

And guess what if you go 10 degrees farther south.

BALDWIN: Don't tell me it's calm.

MYERS: The furious 50s. And 10 degrees farther south, the screaming 60s. It doesn't get better if it goes south, right? If the plane flew longer, it didn't get better.

(CROSSTALK)

BALDWIN: They have nicknames for this part of the world? That's not a good thing.

MYERS: I'll tell you what.

BALDWIN: I'm just saying.

MYERS: And this weather we had yesterday, Brooke, with 50 mile-per- hour winds and waves 30 were feet high, you talk about not being able to see anything that is floating or white on the surface, because the entire ocean is white.

This thing really turned into a foam bath. It was in a bubble bath. That's what these guys were looking at with this area here that's now moving away and it's still going away, was right over our search area. Still though we are at 30 miles per hour right now at this hour. It will continue to get better as the day goes on.

We will kind of move this along here for you. There is the search area that pushes off to the east. The bad weather pushes off to the east. Go ahead. Move that forward for me.

This weather here will come onshore here, though. Actually, our viewers will see that our reporters in Perth will get pounded later on today. But then if you fly 2,000 or whatever, 1,700 miles all the way over to this area, it does get a whole lot better. I don't think this is going it to move for us here, Brooke, but trust me, the weather gets better today.

The winds out there will be probably more like 10 miles per hour.

BALDWIN: OK.

MYERS: And at least that's not the bubble bath that I described that they had yesterday.

BALDWIN: OK.

I'm just curious, because we talk so much about the currents, and so much of this, yes, we see these pictures on the satellite image of debris, could be from the plane.