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Public Al Qaeda Meeting; Costs Mount in Search; Crisis in Ukraine; How a Deep Sea Manned Sub would Search

Aired April 16, 2014 - 09:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

BARBARA STARR, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Role he is now playing and what he maybe up to next.

Carol.

CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: Barbara Starr reporting live from the Pentagon this morning. Thanks, Barbara.

To discuss the threat from al Qaeda, I want to bring in Paul Cruickshank. He's a CNN terror analyst.

Welcome, Paul.

Hi, Paul. Can you hear me?

PAUL CRUICKSHANK, CNN TERRORISM ANALYST: Hey, Carol. Yes, I can.

COSTELLO: Oh, good. You scared me there for a second.

OK, that was a scary report. How concerned should we be?

CRUICKSHANK: Well, there's a lot of concern about this group, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, the affiliates in Yemen. This is a group which has been resurgent over the last year. They've launched a number of attacks against army installations, security installations across Yemen. And the leader of this group, Nasir al-Wuhayshi, is also the number two of al Qaeda globally. Appears to be emboldened as well, appearing with 100 fighters.

In this video, he's actually greeting people who were freed, members of the group, from Sona (ph) security prison back in February. So this is a propaganda video from the group, but also a message for the United States, we're still coming after you, he's telling America.

COSTELLO: Yes, but, I know, this is a big in-your-face thing to the United States, right, but it could be a whole bunch of nothing, too, right?

CRUICKSHANK: Well, it's a propaganda video first and foremost from the group to show that supporters around the world that they're still in business, they're still a threat inside Yemen and that they still intend to target the United States. And they still have some ability to target the United States, because they do have this very skilled bomb maker, Ibrahim al-Asiri, who was not at this meeting. This is somebody who's in hiding, who's heavily protected by the group and very skilled at making explosives, which you can kind of get on airlines. And so a lot of concern about this. Back in February, the Department of Homeland Security issued a bulletin after U.S. intelligence discovered that al-Asiri was developing a new generation of shoe bombs, Carol.

COSTELLO: OK. So this gathering supposedly took place somewhere in Yemen, right? And is it possible that the United States actually knew about the meeting but we're not hearing about it? I mean if the United States can target an al Qaeda leader in the middle of a busy city in Pakistan and then kill that person with a drone, why wouldn't it be able to detect this large gathering?

CRUICKSHANK: Well, if they had known about it, it would have been a huge opportunity really to decimate this group and land a huge blow against al Qaeda globally. Nasir al-Wuhayshi is expected to take over one day from Ayman al-Zawahiri, the current leader of al Qaeda. You also had a lot of the top leadership of the group, over 100 fighters there. So their thought may be they didn't know about this either because they didn't have this sort of human intelligence capability, people inside the group that could inform them about this meeting, which would have taken quite a lot of time to organize or perhaps because they weren't able to intercept some of AQAP's communications. This group has been more careful in the way it's communicated since some of these revelations have come out on the NSA over the last year, Carol.

COSTELLO: Paul Cruickshank, thank you so much for joining us. I appreciate it.

CRUICKSHANK: Thank you.

COSTELLO: Still to come in the NEWSROOM, one of the most expensive searches in aviation history. We'll break down the costs in the hunt for that missing plane.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COSTELLO: In the Indian Ocean, search teams are awaiting the return of the Bluefin-21. It's back under water this morning after a technical glitch interrupted the vessel's hunt for Flight 370. Bluefin's redeployment comes after initial analysis of the submersible's data showed no sign of debris. And today, some 14 planes and 11 ships continue their efforts on the surface. As the search chief says, only a few more days remain until that part of the mission will be completed. Joining in the hunt, the navy's "Caesar Chavez," the only U.S. ship involved in the hunt for that missing plane.

In the meantime, passengers' families lost their tempers at a Beijing briefing today. The families had been invited to a video conference with Malaysian officials in Kuala Lumpur, but the audio on the feed simply did not work. After 20 minutes, the families stormed out, some yelling "liars" at the video monitor.

With the search for Flight 370 now entering its 40th day, there's word that costs for the mission are mounting in an operation many officials say is unlike any they have ever seen in the history of aviation. CNN's Joe Johns has more for you.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JOE JOHNS, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The search for MH370 is quickly becoming the most expensive of its kind in history, the scope of which is unprecedented says a former lead investigator for the National Transportation Safety Board.

BOB FRANCIS, FORMER VICE CHAIRMAN, NTSB: In the history of aviation, we've never had a challenge that even comes close to this.

JOHNS: More than two dozen countries, seven contributing the most and Australia taking the lead, 80 ships and 61 aircraft, all part of the effort to locate the plane. The greatest challenge? The remote distances of the search.

FRANCIS: A tremendous percentage of the resources, whether it's aircraft or ships or personnel, are spending their time getting there and getting home.

JOHNS: And that comes with a hefty price tag with some estimates suggesting a cost of $21 million a month, most of the money coming from military training budgets, some from humanitarian organizations and now from U.S. Navy operations. For example, a Navy P-8 aircraft costs about $4,200 an hour to fly. The Pentagon originally designated $4 million for the search, but has already spent $7.1 million on planes, ships and underwater surveillance equipment.

How does Flight 370 compare to other aviation disasters? The two-year search for Air France 447 cost roughly $50 million. The TWA 800 investigation and recovery cost about $40 million. In 1996, one of the longest investigations the NTSB ever conducted, Swiss Air 111, which went down off the coast of Nova Scotia in 1998, the search, recovery and investigation took four years and cost $39 million.

But what of the collateral costs of missteps and mismanagement of the investigation?

FRANCIS: Frankly, the Malaysian government has not handled this at all well, and that's clearly cost time and resources.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

COSTELLO: That it has. That was Joe Johns reporting.

I want to bring in CNN's Brian Todd right now. You've been doing a lot of reporting on this Bluefin-21. The, you know, I guess the more complicated the technology, the more expensive it is to run it, right?

BRIAN TODD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: It certainly is, Carol. And these are not cheap machines, vehicles to run. None of this is cheap. We just got a little bit more of a breakdown on what it costs for one specific part of this operation, and that's the part that we've been talking about for the last few days, the deployment of the Bluefin-21, that autonomous underwater vehicle that is being counted on now to map the ocean floor for possible debris. According to Christopher Johnson, naval sea systems command spokesman, just for the U.S. Navy's allocation for this particular part of the operation, they've budgeted $3.6 million just for their part of this operation. That covers the deployment of the towed pinger locater, which was previously used in the past few days, the deployment of the Bluefin-21 over the past three days, 10 operators on board the Ocean Shield who are running both of those vehicles, and transportation for those operators and presumably the equipment to the region and back to the U.S. And that's just what the U.S. Navy has budgeted so far for this.

But it, of course, doesn't factor in what the Australians are spending for the deployment of the Ocean Shield and what so many of these other countries are, of course, spending on the broader operation, Carol. We're just breaking down that particular aspect of it and what the U.S. Navy's portion of it is as far as what they've budgeted so far for it.

COSTELLO: So the Navy own the Bluefin-21, right?

TODD: Well, Phoenix International actually owns it and then the Navy contracts with Phoenix International to run the Bluefin-21 and it also incorporates Phoenix's operators to run it. So the Navy basically leases it, pays Phoenix to run the Bluefin-21 and the towed pinger locater. So it's a bit of a complicated scenario, but Phoenix actually owns the towed pinger locater. They manufactured that. They did not manufacture the Bluefin-21, but they bought it and they own it and they run it but the Navy contracts with them to run both of those vehicles.

COSTELLO: And it is possible that searchers will have to move on to even better technology, right?

TODD: It's possible. You know, we have talked about this over the past couple days. There are other submersibles out there that can go deeper than the Bluefin-21. There's a REMUS 6000, which is a similar vehicle to the Bluefin, but it has a greater depth capability. It can go about 3.7 miles below the surface of the ocean. That's about a mile deeper than the Bluefin can go. There's the Orion, which is a towed submersible. You have to tow that from a ship. But that can also go significantly deeper than the Bluefin. So it's possible that maybe one of those assets could be deployed. But the Navy has told us that as far as those REMUS 6000 vehicles are concerned, they are being put to use for military purposes now. They are otherwise tasked to do those operations. Essentially they're telling us they're not really available right now. The Navy will not be more specific on what they're being used for. As for the Orion, the U.S. Navy tells us that they have not been asked by the Australians to bring that to the region yet.

COSTELLO: Brian Todd reporting live for us. Thanks, Brian.

TODD: Sure thing.

COSTELLO: Still to come in the NEWSROOM, rising tensions. Tanks in the streets of eastern Ukraine. Tens of thousands of Russian troops massing at the border. Is Russia right, is Ukraine on the brink of civil war? We'll talk about that next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COSTELLO: The Russian President Vladimir Putin says Ukraine is on the brink of civil war, this as tanks travel through Ukrainian cities in the east, some supporting the government, others backing the pro- Russia supporters.

William Pomeranz is the deputy director for advanced Russia Study at the Woodrow Wilson Center he joins us live from Washington. Welcome, sir.

WILLIAM POMERANZ, WOODROW WILSON CENTER: Glad to be here.

COSTELLO: In your mind, are the Russians winning the propaganda war?

POMERANZ: Well, I think Russia's propaganda war is primarily directed toward Russians inside Russia and those Russian speakers on the Ukrainian borders. In that sense, I think the propaganda war is having some impact. There is in Russia itself strong support for Putin's actions. I do not think that Putin is winning the propaganda war outside those regions however.

COSTELLO: But it's important he win the propaganda war in those regions. And I'll just give you one example of why it seems that Russia is once again the propaganda master, so to speak.

You go to Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev's Facebook page, he writes on the page or someone for him writes on the page, "Blood has been spilled in Ukraine." Medvedev goes on to say he's urging Ukrainians to decide their own future, quote, "Without imposters, nationalists and bandits. Without tanks or armored vehicles and without secret visits by the CIA director," which is kind of unbelievable since Russia seems to be destabilizing Ukraine.

POMERANZ: Well yes. I mean this is a standard tactic by Russia. I think it's trying to cause to destabilize Ukraine. It's engaged in a very intensive propaganda war and it's aimed at winning over the constituencies that it feels necessary in order to continue its operations in eastern Ukraine.

That being said, I don't think it's being followed or supported internationally. You clearly did not have any sort of international support for Russia's actions in Crimea. And that followed significant propaganda from Russia about its decisions to annex Crimea.

So I don't think Russia really is winning at this stage any propaganda war. It's able -- it's effectively directing that propaganda and that information to its own citizens. But not internationally.

COSTELLO: Well but Putin doesn't seem to care about what you know international entities think. General Kimmitt who served under George Bush says, at the moment the United States and Europe actually appear weak in the face of Putin's -- I don't know -- strong propaganda war shall we say. He says that Putin needs to be shown who is boss. Is that what he needs? POMERANZ: Well, the West needs to have a coordinated response in regards to the actions that are taking place in eastern Ukraine. And there is I think general agreement that we have tried to do it step by step. We are about to face a new step in this crisis.

I don't have a lot of optimism in regards to the meeting that will take place tomorrow in Geneva. And I fully anticipate that after that meeting the U.S. will begin to ratchet up the sanctions as well. That will be interpreted as weakness inside Russia. But I think there are consequences that will flow from increased sanctions as well.

COSTELLO: Well General Kimmitt suggests that the United States and Europe send troops to Ukraine to protect the border, is that the answer?

POMERANZ: Well no at this stage I don't think sending troops to the Ukraine is the answer. It would simply provoke Russia's entry into mainland Ukraine and you have to recognize that at this stage Russia has the advantage, Russia has the troops ready, they are prepared and they're right on the border. It's been their home, it's been their backyard. So I do not think at this stage that sending U.S. troops to Ukraine would do anything other than provoke an immediate military reaction from Russia.

COSTELLO: William Pomeranz thanks for your insight we appreciate it.

POMERANZ: My pleasure.

COSTELLO: We're back in a minute.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COSTELLO: The Bluefin 21 is under water right now searching for signs of that missing Malaysian plane. If the robot sub does locate debris a deep sea manned sub could be called in. CNN's Gary Tuchman shows us the sub similar to the one that maybe deployed.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GARY TUCHMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice over): At first glance it resembles a spacecraft more than anything else. But this is a research sub that has combed the seas doing everything from medical research to ship and aircraft recovery.

JIMMY NELSON: We have an array of light systems on the sub so you can turn on which ever light you need.

TUCHMAN: Jimmy Nelson used to spend about 170 days a year on this sub, the Johnson Sea Link Submersible as it's known. It's now retired. Florida Atlantic University's Harbor Branch Oceanographic Institution.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: All right. Ready to go.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Ready to go.

TUCHMAN: But other manned sea vehicles might be next in line to aid in the Malaysia airline search.

(on camera): If this submersible or another submersible gets to where the wreckage is, how effective do you think it will be in recovering the aircraft?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Very effective.

TUCHMAN: This is a view of this very submersible in the Atlantic Ocean. It could go 3,000 feet deep but like all research subs, it's slow. It only travels just over one mile per hour when searching. The sub was called to duty in 1986 after the space shuttle "Challenger" exploded. And it recovered some of the wreckage from the ill-fated shuttle.

NELSON: We have the capability of lifting around 1,000 pounds of weight to the surface.

TUCHMAN: In the very front of the submersible, a tool called the "manipulator" which does the important work of grabbing, scooping and sucking up samples that are recovered.

(on camera): This sub is about 24 feet long, it's also about 11 feet tall and weighs about 28,000 pounds. It has enough oxygen and emergency provisions aboard for the people to survive under water for up to five days. There is also a bat cabin on the submersible called the aft observation chamber.

A crew member who keeps an eye on the submersible's vital signs and another scientist share that back area which is only about five and a half feet by three feet.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: So just to give our viewers an idea how you're sitting, this is how I'm sitting. And you can be here for hours.

TUCHMAN: But during those hours, this is what's taking place.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: So we fire up the sonar system and it does a sweep, and it paints us a picture as it spins around 360 degrees. If there's any solid target on the bottom and it will kind of paint a small picture of what it looks like. And we could go ahead and motor that way.

TUCHMAN: The use of high tech unmanned underwater vehicles is increasing, but Jimmy Nelson says they're looking for wreckage, manned submersibles offer an important dimension.

TUCHMAN: So you're saying that sometimes just having a human being be able to look around the corner of your eye could spot things that an unmanned submersible cannot spot?

NELSON: Correct.

TUCHMAN: reporter: this submersible will not be going, but others could be sent into action in the Indian Ocean, under water in an evident to solve a mystery.

Gary Tuchman, CNN, Fort Pierce, Florida.

COSTELLO: Still ahead in the next hour of NEWSROOM, a dramatic rescue still under way off the coast of South Korea. More than 300 students still missing after their ship sank. More after a break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)