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Iraq Chaos; Options for Iraq Action; U.S. Weighs Acton; Bergdahl Hasn't Spoken With Parents

Aired June 13, 2014 - 14:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

PAMELA BROWN, CNN ANCHOR: I'm Pamela Brown, in for Brooke Baldwin on this Friday. Nice to have you with us.

This is CNN's special coverage of a horrifying scenario. A deadly battle for Baghdad getting more likely by the hour. Radical Islamists are right now pushing towards the capitol after capturing one city after another in just a matter of days. The question no longer seems to be whether the U.S. will jump back into the fight, but when. But how involved will we be? That is the big question. We have just learned the U.S. is sending in a heavily armed aircraft carrier keeping the door open for possible air strikes. Speaking a short time ago, President Obama says he doesn't know the course of action he'll take, if any at all. but says he's sure of one thing, no boots on the ground.

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BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We will not be sending U.S. troops back into combat in Iraq, but I have asked my national security team to prepare a range of other options that could help support Iraq security forces. And I'll be reviewing those options in the days ahead.

The United States will do our part, but understand that ultimately it's up to the Iraqi's as a sovereign nation to solve their problems. Indeed across the region, we have redoubled our efforts to help build more capable counter terrorism forces so that groups like ISIL (ph) can't establish safe haven and we'll continue that effort through our modern of the moderate opposition in Syria, our support for Iraq and its security forces and our partnerships with other countries across the region.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN: And for the people of northern Iraq and in Baghdad, a city now in the cross hairs of these radical extremists, time is running out. The U.N. now saying in just a few short days as ISIS fighters stormed onward and cities fell, hundreds of Iraqi civilians may have been killed. And U.S. trained Iraqi troops offering little resistance, frightened, outnumbered, many laying down their arms or fleeing.

Joining me now to discuss this, Arwa Damon, senior international correspondent, live from inside Iraq in the city of Erbil.

Arwa, you're actually in a city now that is fast becoming a refugee haven. Some refugees, we understand, have said they actually prefer the invaders to their own government, why?

ARWA DAMON, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, that is because underlying all of this is very much the sectarian tensions that exist in the area that ISIS has managed to take over are predominantly Sunni. The Sunni population has for years now felt as if the Shia led government that is predominantly Shia by Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al Maliki, has been alienating them, deliberately targeting them, that Maliki (INAUDIBLE) consolidating power around them. (INAUDIBLE) necessarily support ISIS because they support an ideology or the concept of Islamic caliphate. But because they do believe that this is an existential battle between Sunni and Shia and right now the most powerful Sunni force happens to be ISIS.

But it's also important to note that ISIS' rapid advance throughout northern Iraq and down towards the Iraqi capital has been through mostly Sunni land. And it is not just fighting on its own, even though it is in the spotlight right now. There are a number of very prominent Sunni insurgent groups that were quite active during the U.S. occupation of Iraq that have also joined in the fight against the government of Shia Prime Minister Nuri al Maliki.

Alongside that as well, we've been seeing numerous calls by various Shia leaders. Call being made from the mosques for the Shia to go and join the Iraqi security forces. Sources telling us that even Iran has sent in some units of its elite republican guard forces to try to prevent the ISIS fighters and the various others who are fighting alongside them from approaching the Iraqi capital Baghdad to try to resolve this. That is not going to just be an undertaking that is going to be accomplished by military might alone. It's going to take a certain level of political maturity that at this stage key Iraqi politicians, most importantly the prime minister himself, have failed to show.

BROWN: Yes. Arwa Damon, thank you so much. And we'll discuss more about this. Well, President Obama is weighing. He has said no U.S. ground troops to Iraq. Obama wants his national security team to come up with other military options to counter radical insurgents threatening Baghdad and seizing territory in northern Iraq.

So now let's go straight to White House correspondent Michelle Kosinski for more on this.

So, Michelle, what are the other military options being floated around in White House circles right now? We've been hearing about air strikes, possible drone strikes. What are sort of the realistic options?

MICHELLE KOSINSKI, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, that looks like about the extent of it. I mean they're not giving away any details officially. But when you talk to the analysts and you look at what the options really are that would be effective, it would be exactly what you mentioned, strikes from the air. But also an increased military support on the ground without U.S. boots on the ground that would include military equipment, fighter jets, tanks, Humvees, you name it. That's what the U.S. has been doing, though, for an entire year as the White House portrays it steadily ramping up the military support for Iraq.

Obviously that hasn't worked in the face of what is going on right now. So it's hard to imagine that the U.S. would just do more of the same. I seems like the only effective option at this point would be some strikes from the air. The U.S., obviously, is making it publicly known that it's not shying away from that, but it's not rushing into that either. It's taking some time. It will take at least several days, the president said.

He also made it clear that it would require -- for the U.S. to intervene this way, it would require a serious, concerted effort on the part of the Iraqi government. A commitment to inclusive politics there. Would that change the situation on the ground as it stands right now? Probably not. But the U.S. is clearly putting the onus on the Iraqis to do something along those lines before the U.S. acts. President Obama said clearly that if the government doesn't do that, if it doesn't make an effort to have other voices in the government to promote stability, then, frankly, any U.S. action, like this, would simply not work, Pam.

BROWN: Yes, and, Michelle, as we heard President Obama say that this decision, it may take several days and we're hearing that ISIS insurgents may be battling about 60 miles from Baghdad right now. So what do you think? How much time does Obama really have to decide here?

KOSINSKI: Well, if the U.S. deems this to be a national security threat or something so urgent that we need to act immediately, then the U.S. surely, you would consider, would do that. But look at the urgency of the situation as it relates to U.S. intervention. At this point it's not even such that the president would cancel or change his trip to California. Remember, he's going to spend the entire weekend there. It's hard to imagine some major change taking place before that.

Obviously, events on the ground could change this situation. But we do know a little bit more about what the president says and the administration says he's going to be doing. He will be consulting with foreign leaders, consulting with leaders in Congress, weighing the options. So there's obviously some more decision making that needs to be -- that needs to be done before action is taken.

BROWN: Yes, he's certainly taking his time. Certainly a calculated decision. He's being strategic. Michelle Kosinski, thank you for following this story for us.

And now I want to bring in CNN national security analyst and former CIA operative, Bob Baer.

Bob, the big question here, do you see ISIS as a direct threat to the United States?

BOB BAER, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY ANALYST: Oh, I think most definitely. It's a very militant organization. It's what's called the Takfiri organization. It excludes, for instance, the Shia. They have the potential to sew chaos through the Middle East. There are a lot of foreign fighters, even from Europe and the United States, fighting with ISIS that could easily be trained in the battlefield and come back to the United States. And if we were to intervene, either by air or with boots on the ground, I think that there's a good risk that they would strike within this country and probably could.

BROWN: And we heard President Obama say that the action taken, if any, it would need to be precise, targeted and effective against ISIS. But, Bob, do you believe there is enough credible intelligence about where ISIS fighters are located to be able to accomplish that?

BAER: No, we don't have a clue. I mean there -- it's a guerrilla force. They're spread out. Even the command structure is opaque to us. It would be very difficult to decapitate that organization. But I'd like to add something else, and that's really the unknown, and that's Iran. I think the Iranian forces in Baghdad as we speak, and if Baghdad truly came under threat, you would see an intervention by Iran and this would put the conflict on a whole new level.

BROWN: And we could see cooperation between the U.S. and Iran. Do you believe we could see that?

BAER: I -- it would be amazing, but I could see it now.

BROWN: Yes.

BAER: We are on the same side, whether we like it or not.

BROWN: Yes. And let's talk about the options on the table. We heard from our Michelle Kosinski that some options are being floated around like drone strikes, air strikes. But what do you think? Can they be effective? Will that really be able to change the ultimate calculus of fighting on the ground there?

BAER: No, not in the days to come. It would take months to set this up. I mean the Air Force off aircraft carriers could hit targets -- obvious targets on roads, but they quickly disperse and they could carry on the fight. I mean the military does take time to gear up for a new conflict like this. Our intelligence is not current. The embassy, for instance, is pretty much in lockdown now. It can't get outside the green zone, you know, for obvious reasons. Difficult to collect intelligence, especially where the - where ISIS is in Anbar provinces, which is apparently (ph) been cut off from the west for the last six months.

BROWN: Yes. And what we know doesn't work is the training and the amount of money we've spent on the Iraqi troops there. $15 billion and we're hearing word that they are just dropping their arms and fleeing. So we'll keep an eye on this imploding situation. So much to talk about. So, Bob, stick around.

And just ahead on NEWSROOM, Baghdad is home to the largest U.S. embassy in the world with thousands of employees. Are they safe as militants march toward Baghdad? Can the embassy be protected? We'll answer that, up next.

Plus, I'm going to speak live with one columnist who says both President Obama and George W. Bush are to blame for this fast moving crisis.

And another big story, Bowe Bergdahl right now in America but still has not spoken with his parents. Why is that? Stay right here. This is CNN special coverage.

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BROWN: The United States is weighing possible military action in Iraq as Islamic militants head toward Baghdad right now. The Iraqi capital is home to the largest U.S. embassy in the world. A $700 million compound of 20 buildings had opened back in 2009 and right now plans are being made for possible evacuation of U.S. personnel. So let's discuss this. I want to bring in -- back in CNN security analyst and former CIA operative Bob Baer and CNN foreign affairs reporter Elise Labott.

So, Elise, I want to start with you. We've been talking about this. If you would, just put this in perspective. How many Americans are there right now in Iraq?

ELISE LABOTT, CNN FOREIGN AFFAIRS REPORTER: Well, Pam, the U.S. has about 5,300 personnel in Iraq. Now those 2,000 or so Americans, and we're talking about diplomats, contractors, security personnel and officials from various agencies from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, to the Agency for International Development, the FBI, it's really a kind of whole government approach. And most of them are in the U.S. embassy in Baghdad, but the U.S. also has conciliates with a small amount of personnel in Basra in the south, but more urgently in Erbil in the north where ISIL (ph) is gaining a lot of ground in that area.

BROWN: And, Bob, this, of course, begs the question about security. What is the security situation there, particularly at the embassy?

BAER: Well, first of all, I hope they're going into a burn out now and that's taking all paper documents and simply -- physically burning or shredding. And that's - I've been in these evacuations before, making sure there's no hard drives out. It would be a catastrophe if they had to leave and ISIS got the material in that embassy. And I hope their -- what they're doing now is doing a drawdown and that's non-essential personnel so if there were an extremous (ph) extraction of the embassy, you'd only need a couple helicopters to send in there. I don't see that situation. But you have to plan for these things days in advance.

BROWN: And you said, Bob, that you have personally been through an evacuation similar to this before. Tell us what that was like. What -- set the scene for us of what possibly could be happening there in Baghdad at the U.S. embassy.

BAER: Well, it was the same sort of situation. I was in central Asia, in Fujikistan (ph), when Islamic fundamentalists were attempting to overthrow the capital, to run over the capital. And fortunately at the time we had Russian armor on the ground. And I was actually given two APC's armored personnel carriers, to go collect the Americans. Because it's not just the embassy, it's all Americans in Baghdad, and there are quite a few, that you've got to get them out. You can't leave them on the ground there and you have to convince them to leave and help them out. So this is a huge undertaking and it may seem, you know, a panic, but it really does have to be done in advance.

BROWN: Yes, as Elise said, they're not just at the embassy, they're spread out. And, Elise, if you would, tell us how diplomacy could work here when dealing with a terror group like ISIS.

LABOTT: Well, first of all, just on Bob's point, the State Department is not evacuating its citizens. It's, right now, just putting together a plan for doing so. They might just hunker down and see how bad it gets, Pam.

But on the diplomacy side, clearly there are a lot of countries, not just in the region, like the Saudis and the UAE and those Gulf states that have a lot of concern about what's happening on their boarders, but you also have countries that the U.S. worked very close with during the war on Iraq. The British. Secretary of State John Kerry is in London today meeting with the foreign minister there. So certainly right now the U.S. is not just talking about what it can do but it's talking to countries in the region, how they can help support anything that the U.S. would do because they'll need overflight rights, they'll need air space, that type of stuff and they'll also need cooperation from some of the allies that the U.S. is going to focus on some of the air defensive type of things. Maybe the British can help with counter terrorism things, training, stuff like that, logistics. It's really going to not just be the U.S. that's going to be able to do this alone. They're going to need a lot of help and that's what the U.S. is doing right now, consulting with allies to talk about how everyone can work together.

BROWN: Yes, a lot of planning and coordination. Elise Labott, Bob Baer, thank you so much for laying it out for us. We appreciate it.

And coming up next right here on NEWSROOM, Private Bowe Bergdahl back in the United States, but what will it take to rehabilitate someone back into American society who was held as a Taliban prisoner for five years? We'll discuss up next.

And as concerns grow over the situation in Iraq, the blame game is heating up. So who is responsible for the current state of affairs in Iraq? We'll talk to someone who is calling it a quote "assisted suicide." Stay with us.

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BROWN: Sergeant Bowe Bergdahl is back on American soil trying to regain control of his life after nearly five years in Taliban captivity. Our affiliate, WOAI, believes Bergdahl arrived on this plane right here and headed to San Antonio Military Medical Center. There he will undergo the final phase of what the military calls post captivity reintegration. And sources tell CNN Bergdahl's family is not in San Antonio yet. He has not spoken to his parents since his release. For nearly two weeks, Bergdahl was cloistered in a German hospital without access to TV or the Internet, shielded from the harsh backlash of the prisoner swap that set him free, along with five high profile Taliban detainees from Guantanamo Bay.

So let's talk about this. I want to bring in now psychologist and combat stress coach Terry Lyles.

Terry, let's talk about this -- the reuniting between Bergdahl and his parents. Some say that may be one of the most difficult hurdles for Bergdahl. I'm curious though, why hasn't he spoken to his parents yet? What's behind that?

TERRY LYLES, PSYCHOLOGIST: Well, you know, I'm not sure that he's been advised not to speak to them or he's choosing not to, but either way it's really not uncommon in my opinion because that reintegration process is very challenging. I mean if anybody can relate to a holiday time with family and friends, there's always chaos that goes on regardless of what that is. So you can imagine that after five years in captivity, the - you know, not knowing what to expect. Not knowing what to say. There's a lot there that I'm sure he's still going to need to be briefed on before he even meets his parents, even for a few moments.

BROWN: Hmm, that's interesting because, you know, from my perspective, I would think one way would be like once you come back you'd want to be reunited with your parents. You would want to be with the people that you knew before this.

LYLES: Yes.

BROWN: I would think that would be comforting. No?

LYLES: Well, it -- that sounds logical, but I think the relationship with his parents weren't exactly the way that we might think it was. I mean I've read where he was sleeping on couches in family, you know, friends' homes for a period of time and then went to the Coast Guard, washed out, went to the Army. So I'm not sure how estranged that was before he left, so there could be some issues there.

But on the other side of that, you know, he's been locked away in a foreign place, you know, in exile. So his past life is over. His new life is just now beginning. And I'm sure he's not sure even what that will be and I'm sure he's a little even afraid to even open that back up and go back and explore, even though it looks like it would be comfortable to us.

BROWN: And let's talk about that new life. How does Bergdahl relearn how to make decisions for himself, something as simple, like ordering food in a restaurant, given the fact that his captors decided everything for him for years?

LYLES: Yes, he's going to need some good people around him, some good coaching around him because it's going to be a very slow integration. I'd use the example of someone who has physical trauma. If they lost a limb and they came back, they would be noticeably disabled and they would noticeably need help around them. You know, a wheelchair, crutches, someone to assist them. He's that way psychologically. So he's going to need a lot of special needs care to help him reintegrate. Plus, I mean, he's been cut off from the world. The Internet. Just news media. Can you imagine all that's happened in the past five years? That's pretty alarming when you think about just coming back into that and trying to catch up on things. It's going to be quite overwhelming and very stressful.

BROWN: Yes, I've covered other situations where people have been kidnapped for years and it's always overwhelming for them on how to learn to use smartphones, just simple things that we use day-to-day.

LYLES: Yes.

BROWN: And also, of course, a big question is, how will he be -- deal with the controversy surrounding his release because, up until this point, we've learned that he's been shielded from it. So the question is, how will that play a role in all this.

Terry Lyles, thank you so much. We appreciate it.

LYLES: You're welcome. Thank you.

BROWN: Just ahead right here on NEWSROOM, it's like the wild west right now in Iraq. Violent militants taking over cities and marching toward Baghdad right now. My next guest calls it suicide and says George W. Bush and Barrack Obama are partly to blame for Iraq killing itself. That's next in our special live coverage, "Iraq Under Attack."

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