Return to Transcripts main page

CNN Newsroom

Hamas Claims It Captured Israeli Soldier; Where are the Black Boxes?; How Long Will Investigation Take?; Is There Blood on Putin's Hands?; Will World Leaders Step Up Against Putin?; Why Were Airlines Not Warned?; Should U.S. Help Solve the Mideast Conflict; Can Israelis and Palestinians Ever Get Along?

Aired July 20, 2014 - 18:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

JIM SCIUTTO, CNN ANCHOR: You are in the CNN NEWSROOM. I'm Jim Sciutto in Washington.

POPPY HARLOW, CNN ANCHOR: And I'm Poppy Harlow in New York. This hour, we're fast forwarding to the week ahead, and it is going to be a busy one.

SCIUTTO: We're going to be focusing on the continuing investigation into the shoot down of Malaysia airlines Flight 17 and the escalating crisis in Israel and Gaza, including Hamas' new claim that it has captured an Israeli soldier. If verified, this could be a turning point in this already deadly conflict.

But first, our five questions about the downed Malaysia plane.

HARLOW: Question number one, where are the flight's black boxes?

This video distributed today by "Reuters" appears to show one of the flight recorders being carried from a field by pro-Russian rebels. There's no way though to confirm what exactly that man is holding, but a rebel leader has pledged to turn over any technical devices found by his troops to international investigators.

Question number two, how long will it take to piece together exactly what happened to Flight 17?

The crash site remains largely a disorganized and unsecured area. Malaysian investigators have arrived in Ukraine's capital, but they are still waiting for permission to enter the Donetsk region.

And what about Russian President Putin? Question number three here. This is not the first plane to be shot down on Putin's watch and now, the world is demanding action. In the words of Australia's leader, Tony Abbott, quote, "Russia can't wash its hands of this."

And will this demand for action actually come to fruition? The downing of Flight 17 is being called by some a game changer in U.S./Russia relations. So, our question number four, will world leaders step up and take

action, more action against Vladimir Putin and Russia?

And, finally, question number five: why were no warnings issued about the dangers of flying over this part of eastern Ukraine apparently at this altitude? Several planes had been recently shot down quite near there, including a military transport plane. So, why wasn't Malaysian Airlines told to avoid that specific airspace? Where there enough regulations from international aviation authorities? We're going to dig in for answers.

SCIUTTO: Today, Ukraine's government has released a new audio recording related to the search for Flight 17's black boxes. One voice, allegedly a rebel commander, is heard telling a rebel fighter to find the plane's black boxes quickly because Moscow is very interested in them.

(BEGIN AUDIO CLIP)

O. KHODAKOVSKI: Do it really quick. Urgently, Moscow asks where the boxes are. Please, report to me where they are. We need to do it quickly.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes, OK.

O. KHODAKOVSKI: Who is there besides you? Are there Strelkov's guys?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I don't know. Just now OSCE people came.

O. KHODAKOVSKI: So, first of all, they are interested in the fate of "black boxes".

They must be under our control. Please, do this task. OK?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: OK.

O. KHODAKOVSKI: I have a request for you. It is not my request. Our friends from high above are very much interested in the fate of the "black boxes". I mean, people from Moscow.

(END AUDIO CLIP)

SCIUTTO: I want to bring in our own Phil Black. He is from Donetsk, not far from the crash scene and we will be speaking by telephone with freelance journalist Noah Sneider. He's also in Donetsk, but has also visited the scene for a number of days now. Phil, I wonder if I could start with you, because I'm sure our viewers

as they're hearing these recordings, these secret recordings coming in of rebel commanders speaking with their Russian handlers or other commanders about what to do first with the shoot down of the plane and now the black boxes. As you and the sources you talk to hear these recordings, how confident are they that they are authentic?

PHIL BLACK, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, the belief of the Ukrainian government and officials there they say absolutely they are authentic. We have to say that we can't verify them, to be absolutely sure.

These are items that the Ukrainian government has produced. They're clearly building a case. There is a PR effort here. There is no doubt about that, to counter what has been a very effective Russian public relations campaign as well.

But they believe that they are building a very convincing case that shows not only did Russia have a hand in delivering the weapons which shot down this aircraft, but that they are now trying to cover that up. They are now trying to obstruct the investigation. They are now trying to hide the fact that these missile batteries responsible, they say were responsible, were ever in that territory to begin with.

SCIUTTO: We're going to go to Noah Sneider as well. He's on the telephone.

Noah, you were one of the first journalists to make it to the crash scene and you've been back there today. Has the security gotten any better there? Because one of the amazing facts of this from the beginning is not just the fact there is not a proper investigation under way there, but it's actually dangerous, there's been gunfire, there have been threats.

Is it any better today?

NOAH SNEIDER, FREELANCE JOURNALIST (via telephone): Hi, thanks for having me.

I think one important thing to remember is that all of this is happening in an active war zone. There's been a separatist uprising that began in April and has burned slowly up until this point. And security concerns are real and the ability of any of the authorities on the ground here to effectively secure the area are minimal. The rebels are a patch work group and they -- they seem to answer to different forces at different times.

Today, we saw open access earlier in the day, then a group of observers from the OSCE, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, arrived, with a pretty well-armed escort of separatist fighters. At that point, the main crash site was locked down in the sense that it was restricted to journalists and other -- other locals.

But the site is rather huge. It's at least 35 square kilometers, rescuers are saying, and runs through a number of open fields. So a perimeter of any kind that would allow for an investigation in the sense of the word that we're used to in America is -- is probably unrealistic.

SCIUTTO: Yes. No, just about the worst conditions you can imagine, to get a proper investigation under way.

Phil, I wonder -- as we see things improve slowly there, a little bit more access every day, the bodies, you know, crucially finally getting some of the respectful treatment that they and their families deserve, what about investigators though? In Kiev now, you have NTSB investigators, you have the FBI, you have a Dutch investigation team coming in.

Is there any sense as to when they are going to be able to get from Kiev, the capital, out to that scene so they can start looking at clues and start getting some answers to this -- to the many questions that are still there?

BLACK: Well, the leadership of the pro-Russian rebels say that they are welcome and believes that they will start arriving soon, said today that some Malaysia experts due on the ground here imminently. But it's still not absolutely clear if that's the case, when that will happen -- and that's really the big question mark. Although there has been some improvement, as you say, at least those bodies have been recovered now, it's still unclear when they are going to be processed, by who, how they're going to be identified, and eventually returned to their families -- still a lot that is unknown there really.

And to the families around the world, that's the most significant stuff, but in terms of the investigation, when will it begin? That site is still largely unsecure. It is still being manipulated, changed, contaminated in various ways every single day, not least of which through the recovery of the bodies. We saw the cockpit, or what remains of the cockpit today, really being carved open by emergency workers who were looking for human remains. They didn't find any, but they still -- they still did that anyway and crucially, it wasn't examined by investigators before they did that work.

So, all of these changes are taking place and you have to think that ultimately, this will have a significant impact on investigators' ability to determine and analyze precisely what's there on the ground when they do eventually get there on the ground. But that's still not clear that entire scale yet.

SCIUTTO: Poppy, just incredible to think, three days later, the investigation, the real investigation, hasn't started yet.

HARLOW: Absolutely. And Noah, who has been on the ground there for a while, as well as Phil Black -- Noah, I was reading some of your reporting and you were talking about the fact that you were very surprised why international investigators, more of them weren't there, because you stayed is pretty easy to get to the site. But you also noted that you have seen and there have been civilian deaths in close proximity to where the plane went down because of the rebel fighting that continues there.

SNEIDER: Yes. Absolutely. I mean, the city, Kishnaya (ph), which is one of the two cities to the south of the crash site along with Torez, where the bodies were brought today to refrigerated train compartments, Kishnyaa has seen pretty heavy fighting including air strikes in residential areas.

They are disputed. It's another one of these incidents where each side is blaming the other, but I was an apartment block last week in the center of town that was hit by an air strike, at least seven civilians, up to 11 perhaps, were kill there. Shelling continues on an almost daily basis. We were out, two colleagues and I, at the front lines of battle-fresh hill side, also south of the crash site and rebel fighters there said that they've been facing air strikes, ground rocket attacks on a daily basis and have been returning fires as we saw that day.

So, it is a pretty hot conflict, especially in this -- in this area of Donetsk Region.

HARLOW: Yes, absolutely. Our thanks to you, Phil Black, all of the journalists on the ground there, bringing us this story. It is certainly not a safe situation. Stay safe, Noah, we appreciate it, and Phil Black as well.

All right. Let's turn now to the investigation and the hurdles that are facing those experts, at least the ones who have been able to get to the site. Will we get any closer to an answer in the weeks ahead?

Michael Bociurkiw joins us now from Donetsk. He's been talking to us throughout. He's the spokesman for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. He joins us on the phone.

Michael, thank you for being with us.

Jim and I were talking earlier about the fact that we have -- it seems that you guys have been seeing a little less pushback at least from pro-Russian rebel forces there as you try to investigate. In the past few days, you had only been able to be there observing for a few hours and today, it looks like it's getting better. Is that the case?

MICHAEL BOCIURKIW, OSCE SPOKESMAN (via telephone): Yes. Today was a better day for sure. We were able to spend quite a bit of time out at the different crash sites. We visited a site which we had not seen before. That was where the forward section of the aircraft had come down, that was the cockpit and part of the first class section.

And then also, as I'm sure you have been reporting, we went to the train station, about 15 kilometers away from the main crash site and that's where we were told by the rebels that the bodies are being taken.

We were able to peer inside of the cars, it definitely was refrigerated. There is no way we could verify the count of 196 bodies, but there were dozens and dozens there.

And also, we were told that those railway cars will remain stationary until international experts arrive.

HARLOW: Do you know where the black boxes are? We're showing our viewers, maybe we could rerack that video, someone carrying what appears to possibly be the black box across the field there. Of course, we can't independently verify that.

Do you know where the black boxes are? Do your observers know?

BOCIURKIW: We do not. We will declare the black boxes found or located when we see actually them. That's our function as an observation mission. But we had intended to ask questions about the black boxes to folks in control on the ground there at the crash site and there was no one produced who could answer in a credible way.

But I know we are hearing these reports of black boxes found, but really, until they actually are seen by us or in our own hands, then we can declare them found.

HARLOW: Yes, appreciate the work you and your team are doing on the ground there, really day in and day out. Thank you so much for that, Michael Bociurkiw. We appreciate you joining us.

SCIUTTO: To incredible sight to see, Poppy, those key clues literally being walked away from the site of that crash, as we are all waiting for those investigators to get in there.

Just ahead, we're going to have the latest on the other major story we are covering. That's the deadly conflict in Gaza and Hamas' new claim today that it has captured an Israeli soldier. The militant group says his fate rests with what Israel says and does next. How will officials there react?

HARLOW: Also, coming up, this Flight 17 is not the first plane, the first commercial aircraft with civilians on board to be shut down -- do the shot down by Russians. In this tragic incident, what world leaders need, especially in Europe, to take increased actions? We'll discuss.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HARLOW: Here is a live picture from Moscow. It is just after 2:00 in the morning there.

Big question looking forward, will Vladimir Putin finally address the world about Flight 17 in the days ahead?

SCIUTTO: Deadly violence, ongoing tensions and the deliberate downing of a passenger plane. The world is watching Ukraine and they are laser-focused on Russia's president.

Our questions number three and four this week, is there blood on Putin's hands? And will world leaders step up and take real action against him?

I want to bring in now CNN military analyst, Lieutenant Colonel Rick Francona, CNN political analyst, Josh Rogin, national security correspondent for "The Daily Beast", and former CIA operative and CNN national security analyst, Bob Baer.

Colonel Francona, I wonder if I could begin with you. One of the headlines in the announcements today from the State Department and Secretary of State John Kerry was that 12 aircraft, not three or four, as officials had said before, but 12 aircraft, have been shot down by pro-Russian rebels in the last several weeks leading up to this crash.

Looking ahead in light of the proof and evidence we have seen of Russia arming these militants, sending these complicated, sophisticated weapons systems, including the one that's believed to have taken this plane down, can Putin successfully push back with all his propaganda machine to deny some responsibility for this?

LT. COL. RICK FRANCONA (RET), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Well, it's going to be hard, especially in light of these last shoot down. The shoot down of the Antonov-26 at 21,000 feet, and the shoot down of his jet at 33,000 feet indicate the use of a sophisticated surface-to-air missile, not a shoulder-fired system that most probably used in most of those other attacks.

So, this is a game changer and this focuses the world's attention on what kind of heavy weapons are you providing to these people?

So I think it's going to be very difficult for him to step back from this.

SCIUTTO: Bob, I wonder if I can ask you, your experience as a CIA analyst. We talked a little bit about this yesterday. But this kind of asymmetric warfare, targeting airliners, this is the kind of thing that we as a nation and our security services, counterterrorism services, have focused on al Qaeda-like groups, Islamic terror groups. And now, you have a Russian-supported group in the middle of Europe, Ukrainian, pro-Russian rebels, with even greater technology than any of the al Qaeda groups have had in the past, able to reach civil aviation planes at such a great altitude.

How much of a different territory does this put us in, just as Americans, as fliers on international planes? How much more dangerous is it today than we thought it was just a few days ago?

BOB BAER, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY ANALYST: Well, a few days ago, as far as I'm concerned, this was unthinkable. If you had said this was a likely possibility, I'd say it's not going to happen. They're not going to let these missiles turn them over to groups that have no command and control, which is clearly what happened.

This plane, I doubt, was shot down on purpose, but the fact is the Russians gave sophisticated weapons to a guerilla group and this is what we have. It's not just the SA-11, there's the S-300 and go on and on where no air corridor would be exactly safe.

Remember, this conflict is in the middle of Europe and it affects aviation in a lot of places and not just the Ukraine. You know, we need some sort of regime to get back at this. Some -- you know, I think it's fantastic that the Russians handed this stuff over with no control and we need to get to Moscow to put an end to this now and this isn't going to be the last plane.

SCIUTTO: And you made the point, Bob, that these weapons are not just in eastern Ukraine, they are in Syria, they are in Iraq, where there are other groups like ISIS that I'm sure would want to use them.

Josh, I wonder if I can get to you, because people talk about, OK, how do you pressure Russia now? I mean, my question to you is does Putin care about the international condemnation and sanctions so far? And if not, what will it take to get them to care and to change and back off from support for the rebels that we've seen so far? JOSH ROGIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Right. What's clear is whatever

sanctions the U.S. and Europe have brought so far have not been strong enough to change Putin's general calculus about his own country's strategic interests and his own goals inside eastern Ukraine.

Let's remember that the U.S. and E.U. put forth the strongest sanctions so far the day before the crash. It was not an easy lift. And they were carefully crafted not to blow back on the U.S. economy or the European economy.

So the next step, the step that John Kerry said today, was still on the table are broad sectoral sanctions that would affect American businesses, European businesses, the administration has a decision to make. If they are willing to go that far and if they can get the Europeans to go along there's a chance, but not a guarantee, Putin will respond.

So far, he hasn't responded to anything and there's no indication that he's feeling the pressure quite yet.

SCIUTTO: Big question now, can the U.S. marshal Europeans to join in costly sanctions against Russia, sanctions that would be costly to their economies as well? Rick, Bob, Josh, please stick around. We are going to be talking more about this in the next hour. Please stay with us.

HARLOW: Also ahead, warning signals that could have kept Flight 17 from flying over that part of eastern Ukraine or frankly anywhere near it, were those warning signals missed or just not there? We'll discuss next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HARLOW: Question number five: why weren't a number of airlines given wider warnings, more specific warnings about flying over this particular region of eastern Ukraine?

Pro-Russian rebels had shot down a military transport plane, helicopter, other aircraft, yet commercial airliners were led to believe that it was safe to fly above 32,000 feet. As we know now, it was not.

Let's talk about this. I'm joined now by FAA investigator, David Soucie.

Let's talk first, David, about who is responsible. Is there an international authority responsible for making decisions like this?

DAVID SOUCIE, CNN SAFETY ANALYST: Yes, it's actually the United Nations. The International Civil Aviation Organization is an arm -- the aviation arm of the United Nations, and so we have ambassadors from each one of the member states, countries, and each of those countries has someone on board that is there to represent their country. What they do is they perform standard and recommended practices. Once the standard is issued, it is required. It's mandatory. HARLOW: And that was issued here, also warnings and requirements by

the FAA.

SOUCIE: Well --

HARLOW: But this was technically outside of that FAA warnings zone, right?

SOUCIE: Well, yes. Well, the standards are set by ICAO, those standards are then implemented by each county, the FAA, the Ukraine Civil Aviation Authority, each of those use those standard and practices to develop their own, to say we're going to meet this standard. And so, they do that, and they did do that to some extent.

HARLOW: Did Ukraine do it enough?

SOUCIE: No, that's the question. What they are responsible for is determining what the risk is and communicating that risk to whoever's flying through their airspace. The hazard, the risk is whether it's really going to happen or not? They didn't evaluate that hazard properly. And so now, off get a risky area that was not protected.

HARLOW: So it's the onus of the country?

SOUCIE: Correct.

HARLOW: So, the airlines have to be in communication with every single country's equivalent of an FAA in terms of where exactly? It seems sort of like an antiquated process that could be made a lot more streamlined and efficient and safer, am I right?

SOUCIE: Well, it is and what didn't happen here is that the ICAO does have the right, when they're aware of something, that the member state doesn't say, hey, if they see, hey, they are not doing the risk, they're not doing this properly, the ICAO can issue their own NOTAM, their own letter, state letter they call it. And what that letter would do is go out to the entire international community and say, this is not good, we recommend you don't go into that area, they may not be able to block it. Well, they probably could, but they probably wouldn't. They would have just said, this is a big deal, nobody needs to be flying there

HARLOW: Quickly did that happen here?

SOUCIE: No, it did not. Did not.

HARLOW: It did not. It clearly perhaps maybe it should have.

SOUCIE: Yes.

HARLOW: Appreciate the expertise. David Soucie, sit around , we'll have you on later in the show. Thank you.

SOUCIE: Thanks, Poppy.

HARLOW: Jim? SCIUTTO: Coming up, Hamas says they captured an Israeli soldier. Is

this a turning point in the already deadly conflict in the Middle East? That's after this break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HARLOW: Now to the escalating crisis in Israel and Gaza including Hamas' claim that it has captured an Israeli soldier. If verified, this could be a turning point in the deadly conflict.

Our question number one this hour, if Hamas' claim is true, will it force Israel to consider a deal or a ceasefire with the terror group that it hasn't already?

Hamas announcing it snatched the soldier after an operation earlier Sunday left another 13 Israeli soldiers dead.

SCIUTTO: Our question number two, are Israel's heavy losses now a game changer in this conflict? Up until today, Israel had plenty of momentum in its mission to rout Hamas of Gaza militants. How will countries bordering Israel react?

HARLOW: Question number three, what about the United States in all of this? Is there any larger place for this in this conflict for American involvement? What could that look like and now that an Israeli soldier may be captured by Hamas, the tempo of the conflict could change dramatically.

SCIUTTO: And question number four, what's next for the Palestinians who are running for their lives, wanting knowing to do with the war? Thousands of people, families and children, are caught in the crossfire with few places to flee to. According to one estimate, 70 percent of the people killed in this conflict in Gaza have been civilians.

HARLOW: And question number five, can Israelis and Palestinians ever live in peace for the long term? This blood feud, all the bloodshed, has been going on for generations with no real end in sight, just one fragile truce after another. What would it take for the fighting to stop for good?

SCIUTTO: So let's return now to question number one, will Israel be forced to make concessions with Hamas?

Hours after 13 Israeli soldiers were killed in Gaza today, Hamas has announced it has captured an Israeli soldier.

Joining me now, CNN military analyst, Lieutenant Colonel Rick Francona, CNN national security specialist, Bob Baer.

Start with you, if I can, Lieutenant Colonel, when we look at this, could this claim, if true -- capturing a soldier, we know how dearly Israel holds its soldiers -- force Israel to make a deal with Hamas now? Is this a game changer?

LT. COL. RICK FRANCONA, CNN MILITARY ANALYST: I don't think so. I think the Israelis are fully committed to this operation. This operation is going to continue. They have a stated goal. They're going to go in there, they're going to root out these rockets, they're going to go after and shut down the tunnels.

The loss of these 13 troops is bad. The loss of this soldier is going to be a problem down the road. They are going to have to deal with Hamas at some point but they're not going to stop this operation. They are too far committed.

SCIUTTO: And just to remind our viewers, Gilad Shalit, who was captured and held for five years by Hamas, eventually Israel gave up more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners in an exchange there.

Bob, I want to go with you now. The words that you're hearing from Israeli officials now is that their goal is to, quote, demilitarize Hamas in Gaza. That is a lofty goal, that speaks to a long ground operation, possibly an occupation. Is that an achievable goal? Is that what we are looking at now that this is going to be a long fight inside Gaza?

ROBERT BAER, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY ANALYST: Jim, you know, Rick is absolutely right. This is going to continue, and we're talking about months right now. What's fairly clear is Hamas drew the Israeli army into an ambush, losing 13 members of the Golani Brigade is an enormous setback for Israel. It's one of the best trained units in the world. Professional soldiers. It's clearly an ambush and I think they've learned these tactics from Hezbollah when Israel was drawn into Lebanon in 2006.

And I think right now the prime minister has no choice but to continue and disarm Hamas, or they're going to leave Gaza and leave the battle line done. I mean, this is really, you know, a true war that we're seeing and I just don't see Netanyahu going to the -- to the negotiating table now.

SCIUTTO: Might think that Israel was prepared for this kind of ambush because they knew -- they had to have known that Hamas was setting up traps like this, knowing that the Israelis were likely coming in.

We're going to go now to our question number two of the day, is the balance of power changing in this battle?

Colonel, you know as well as me that these conflicts are often as much political as military. You know, how long can the Israeli public stand, how high the costs can the Israeli public stand, particularly in the lives of their soldiers? Do you see that balance changing at all yet or do you see the commitment full on, full ahead?

FRANCONA: I think they're going to go ahead. You know, and Jim, we don't want to make light of losing 13 soldiers, for the Israeli army and especially, as Bob said, the Golani Brigade, the best they have. This is a blow. But it's not going to -- it's not going to stop what they are doing. They have to keep doing this.

Now it will change what they are doing on the ground for maybe a few days as they try and isolate where this soldier is and maybe affect some sort of rescue. But the fact that they didn't announce a capture until they had him probably to a safe place I think the chances of them getting him are pretty slim. I think they know that. So I don't see this changing.

One thing Bob said really is highlighted here, these -- Hamas has had over -- well over 18 months to prepare the battlefield. So we're going to see more of these operations, they learned from Hezbollah, they learned from their mistakes in the past and we're going to see them taking the Israelis on in this asymmetrical warfare, ambushes, IEDs, it's going to get -- it's going to be a very long, prolonged battle, but the Israelis can't give up.

SCIUTTO: But Bob, I have to ask you the question, there have been previous operations in Gaza, in 2009, 2012, full of bombs and ground operations and precision strikes and, you know, the violence returned, the missiles returned. There was an Israeli occupation of Lebanon for some 20 years and Hezbollah survived that occupation.

Can Israel really claim, you know, set this goal of demilitarizing and finally ending the threat from Gaza, set that goal and actually achieve it?

BAER: Well, I don't think the Israelis have a choice, you know? And I'm not saying this in support of Israel, but they just -- they are -- you know, Hamas is a threat to them. Dropping rockets on Israel is unacceptable to the Israeli populace. And what Israel's problem now is they are facing a force that's driven by belief, that they are ready to take casualties, they are driven by Allah and, you know, there's martyrdom operations going on and it's fully acceptable to the Palestinian population.

This is not the old Palestinians Fattah and I think Fattah is fairly -- you know, it's a secular group, is irrelevant at this point. And so that's why the battle, as Rick said, will continue on and it will continue on until the end.

SCIUTTO: And you look at Israel today and the region today, it's not just Hamas and Gaza, you have ISIS in Iraq, that's not far away, and Hezbollah in Lebanon getting more powerful, arguably, all of them, and that changes the calculus, the risk calculus for Israel.

Thanks very much, Rick Francona and Bob Baer.

HARLOW: Yes. Important discussion there, Jim. I mean, just today, you've got those 13 Israeli soldiers dead, 87 on the Gaza side and overall, 425 Palestinians dead in this conflict. We're going to talk more about the death on both sides, as I said, the deadliest day of fighting since this conflict unfolded.

How or is the U.S. really going to react? How involve are they going to get? We know that Secretary Kerry will be on his way to Egypt for discussions about the tension in the region tomorrow. We will talk about all of that straight ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HARLOW: Welcome back, everyone. I'm Poppy Harlow in New York.

We are of course asking the question that will continue to be in the news for the coming days. Number three here, will the United States or how much will the United States get involved in the Israeli/Palestinian conflict?

Josh Rogin is a political analyst for us. He is also a senior national security correspondent for "The Daily Beast."

Thanks for being with us again, Josh. I appreciate it. Let's talk about this news just coming in the last hour. Secretary John Kerry will travel to Egypt tomorrow. He may also make a few other stops.

What do you think he can do this time around? Is it different than it has been in his previous recent trips there?

JOSH ROGIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Yes. Let's remember, this is the third time John Kerry planned to go to Egypt. For the first time he's actually going pull it off. He was preparing to go when he was in Vienna, he was preparing to go last week before the Gaza invasion started and now he's preparing to go to meet with Ban Ki-Moon to see if he can revive the Egyptian idea for a ceasefire, an idea that Hamas has repeatedly rejected.

John Kerry has been very active on this issue, he's been making a lot of calls, he's been trying to do a lot of things, but as we learned today during a hot mic moment on another network, he wants to get in the game, he wasn't to go there. He doesn't want to sit around. So he is going go there, it's not really clear exactly what he will be able to accomplish, if anything, or where he's going go if he has some success after Cairo.

He could go to Jerusalem, he could go to Doha, but he wants to get in there and start to negotiate face to face and that's what he intends to do.

HARLOW: What power do you think that he and the United States have in this at this point? How effective do you think that this visit could be?

ROGIN: Yes, the United States has a lot of leverage and influence with Israel but almost no leverage or influence with Hamas. That's where the Qataris, and to a lesser degree, the Egyptians come in.

Let's compare this to 2012 when Hillary Clinton did the exact same thing and traveled to the region, went to meet with then-president Morsi and actually negotiated a ceasefire and got it done. The situation unfortunately for John Kerry has totally changed. Now Egypt is run by a government that hates Hamas, that is not interested in giving them concessions, and the United States is simply not as much of a player as it used to be. Its relationship with the Israeli government is not as good as it was then.

And the bottom line here is that either side is really ready to make peace. The Israelis still feel like they have to go in and clear more tunnels and do more operations in Gaza. Hamas is not going to agree to a ceasefire until they get a bunch of things that they want, including prisoners release and lots of other things. So the timing may not be right for a deal but John Kerry is determined to get caught trying.

HARLOW: Yes, he certainly wants to go. I mean, part of what was caught on that hot mic this morning between those Sunday talk shows, talking to one of his top advisers, I think we ought to go tonight them talking saying I think it's crazy to be sitting around, let's go, and now we know that this trip will be made tomorrow.

We'll be following it, of course. Appreciate you joining us. Thank you.

ROGIN: Any time.

HARLOW: Meantime, as the conflict in Israel and Gaza gets deadlier by the day, Palestinians caught in the crossfire in Gaza picking up their families, fleeing for their lives.

Coming up, we are going talk about the options for the men, the women, the children that are caught in the crossfire there.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HARLOW: Welcome back, everyone. I'm Poppy Harlow in New York. It is another big question looking at the week ahead. What will happen to the Palestinian civilians caught between the fighting from both sides in Gaza?

Many have nowhere to go. The United Nations estimates that 70 percent of the Palestinians killed in Gaza in this current clash are civilians.

Karl Penhaul joins us now from Gaza City where he has been reporting throughout.

When you talk about where they are going to go, they cannot cross over the border into Israel, most can't cross the border into Egypt. What are they telling you in terms of where they are going or are many of them simply staying and hoping, hoping for safety?

KARL PENHAUL, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Poppy, what you're asking me now is really the biggest question in Gaza. We came across today hundreds of people, we put to them, where are you going? One man looked at us, tears in his eyes, he said, I just don't know.

These are refugees with nowhere to flee. The borders are closed. They have nowhere to go. A couple of days ago, and I caught up with him last night as well, a man taking his whole family on a donkey cart. I stopped him and I said, you know, are you afraid of this situation? He said, afraid? He says, I feel like I'm already dead.

For that reason, I call these people Gaza's walking ghosts. They really have nowhere to go, except now to huddle into some of the schools that the U.N. is opening and now since the Israeli ground invasion started three nights ago, the numbers huddling down in those schools have more than tripled, 81,000 tonight are sleeping in those U.N. schools -- Poppy.

HARLOW: And I want to bring Jim in from Washington -- Jim.

SCIUTTO: Karl, I want to ask you, Israel has said repeatedly, they describe it as a pinpoint operation. You probably heard Secretary of State John Kerry caught off mic earlier today in a FOX interview questioning that very idea, and we know that there have been a great number of civilian casualties, by the U.N. count, 70 percent of those killed there have been civilians.

Based on what you're seeing, is this a pinpoint operation? Are you seeing the very careful use of force, in your own experience there?

PENHAUL: We have seen Israel's statements. We've seen Israel's military statements. They say they are trying to limit civilian casualties, we do know the knock on the roof, that's the kind of the warning shot on to the roof of the building before they try and take it down. We've seen the leaflet drops trying to inform civilians to get out of their neighborhoods because a confrontation could be under way, but this is plainly not working.

According to United Nations, an independent arbiter by many people's estimates, the United Nations says that between 70 and 80 percent of the casualties, that's the dead and the wounded, are civilians. So whatever Israel is trying to do is plainly not working. These civilians are non-combatants and they are clearly protected under the Geneva conventions, the rules of war.

Of course, those Geneva conventions apply to militant fighters as well and what Israel would accuse Hamas and the other militant groups of doing is using civilians as human shields. Well, Gaza is a very densely populated area. It's about the size of metropolitan Las Vegas, home to 1.8 million people. It is an urban area. These are conditions that Israel knew it was coming into, it knew it was going to fight an urban guerilla war. That is what it found itself faced with and the majority of the casualties are civilians -- Jim.

SCIUTTO: A knock on the ceiling, Poppy, you can imagine, before a building is brought down. You can imagine what a frightening sound that is for the families living there.

HARLOW: Yes, it's something none of us can certainly imagine.

Our thanks to Karl Penhaul, who has been up days and days and hours and hours with our team there reporting throughout for us on this. Thank you, Karl.

Meantime, the fighting in Israel has gone on for centuries. Another big question is there anything that anyone can do to really bring peace to that region? We are going dig into that straight ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SCIUTTO: Welcome back. We are going to return now to our question number five, can Israelis and Palestinians ever get along? Many attempts have been made through the years to find a permanent

peace, but bad blood runs deep. What exactly would it take to end this conflict once and for all?

Here again to provide their insight, CNN military analyst, Lieutenant Colonel Rick Francona, CNN national security analyst, Bob Baer.

Lieutenant Colonel, if you could begin with you. It just seems to me that both sides are exhausted by failure in the peace process. Do you see that changing?

FRANCONA: Honestly, I don't. You know, both Bob and I have spent a good portion of our adult lives working this part of the world and we continue to have hope, but the -- I think you hit the key right there, bad blood runs deep. It will take generations to get over this, but something has to give, something has to get us to the point where they can actually sit down and talk to each other and as long as you've got these constant battles in Gaza between Hamas and the Israelis, I just don't see it happening.

SCIUTTO: These conflicts, people have to forget history, that's hard thing to do.

Bob, you spent a lot of time with Hamas. You know, in previous conflicts that have ended through peace, the IRA in northern Ireland, in apartheid in South Africa, the ANC was a terrorist organization, they changed their stripes.

Do you see Hamas as being an organization that can change its stripes, to be someone that the Israelis can negotiate with?

BAER: Jim, frankly, no. I mean, I see across the Middle East and Africa as well, and especially since the Arab spring, what a lot of people inside the intelligence community are calling a Sunni intifada, a sort of uprising. You see it in Iraq, you see it in Syria, you saw the attacks in Egypt today where people are becoming more radicalized and less likely negotiate.

I don't think Hamas would accept Israel within its current boundaries even if it did give up the settlements in the West Bank. I just don't see it happening. And I don't see the Israelis having any confidence in Hamas. So I see we're just -- we're going to be at loggerheads for years. I don't see an easy out on this. It's -- Northern Ireland was so much easier.

SCIUTTO: It's just a sad prospect to imagine. I wonder if I could ask you just very quickly, Rick, what do you think would change that? Is it a new leader on both sides?

FRANCONA: Actually, if the Israelis could be successful and get rid of Hamas and replace it with a more moderate organization, or someone could actually represent the will of the Palestinian people, and I don't think Hamas does that, you got to get this radical organization dedicated to the destruction of Israel, get rid of them and then maybe.

SCIUTTO: We have to hope, for both sides.

Colonel Rick Francona, Bob Baer, thanks very much.

The next hour of CNN NEWSROOM begins right now.