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Cease-fire in Middle East Collapses; Ukrainian Journalist Held by Rebels Released; U.S. Embassy Staff Evacuated from Libya; Government Troops Headed Towards Donetsk; Israel-Hamas Conflict Explained; Air Algerie Plane Hit Severe Weather

Aired July 26, 2014 - 16:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

PHIL BLACK, CNN CORRESPONDENT: MH-17's cockpit now lies down the street. Valentina and other women who work at the orphanage have been coming here with pictures of children killed in the aircraft. They leave them toys, flowers for their parents.

In the village, showered in debris where people fell through ceilings and in yards. People say they will never forget July 17. For Nadezhda, the explosions, fear, and bodies were like memories of the Second World War.

As well as trauma, people here feel relief, even gratitude because no one on the ground was hurt by the bodies or the huge pieces of debris which fell so close to their homes.

Near the main crash site at Hrabove, residents prayed for MH17's victims. These people are living through a civil war, but even they never expected to witness death on such an extraordinary scale.

Phil Black, CNN, Near Hrabove, Eastern Ukraine.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SARA SIDNER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: You're in the CNN NEWSROOM. I'm Sara Sidner live from Jerusalem.

MIGUEL MARQUEZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT: And I'm Miguel Marquez in New York.

We are tracking fast-moving developments at this hour in three global hotspots. The tense (ph) ceasefire in the Middle East is over and it didn't take long for the violence to erupt once again. U.S. Embassy staff have been evacuated from Libya. Violence in the capital of Tripoli forced their exits.

And in Ukraine, government troops are on the move headed toward the rebel-held city of Donetsk that's sparking intense new violence and disrupting the crash investigation of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17.

SIDNER: But we begin with developing news. The collapse of the Middle East ceasefire, sirens are reportedly wailing again in parts of Southern Israel. Hamas is launching rockets up from Gaza as we understand fixed mortars have already hit in the Eshkol Region. The temporary truce has dissolved.

Here is what we know at the moment. Israel's army says many Gaza residents are returning to previously evacuated areas despite repeated warnings placing themselves at risk. It says Israel's defensive position will be maintained. The increasingly bloody conflict has claimed more than a thousand lives in Gaza alone, mostly civilians. There are also 40 Israeli soldiers and three civilians in Israel.

A Gaza Ministry of Health spokesman tells CNN Palestinians found more than a hundred bodies today in areas that were previously far too dangerous to enter because of the Israeli bombardment.

I want to bring in correspondent Ian Lee who is in Gaza City for us. Ian, can you give us a sense of how vast the damage is there in Gaza.

IAN LEE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well Sara we were in the Beit Hanun in Shazai (ph) a neighborhood in (inaudible), that's been the front lines that really just utter devastation whole neighborhood is reduced to rubble and twisted metal. And as you just said earlier over a hundred bodies have been recovered, well we just heard from the Ministry of Health and they put that number at over 150 bodies that have been recovered from the rubble just -- from all strewn out all over these neighborhoods.

Really, when you walk in there you can't make out much of buildings or shops that used to be there is all collapsed on it, so. And this was an important ceasefire for these areas. People were able to return to their homes, get a few possessions that they were able to manage to carry back to their -- to the U.N.-run shelters and these U.N.-run shelters also sign influx of more people taking refuge in them. That number is over 160,000 people who are trying to find some sort of safety in these areas.

The other people we are talking today is the World Food Program and they're tasked with feeding all these people. I talked to the head of the program and he told me that one of their main task today was going to these areas, these communities that were cut off from the fighting to find out who is there, what kind of food assistance that they need and ultimately to try to help people get out of there.

But these neighborhoods are once again the front lines. When we went to Shazai (ph) we were right on there about 100 meters from Israeli tanks, we were yelled at by what we believe were Hamas militants to get out of there, but definitely very tense and as we know now the fighting has resumed.

SIDEN: Ian I want to keep you there for a second because we know that Israel had asked tp extend and they had agreed to extend for four hours the ceasefire. Hamas had outright rejected any offer of a ceasefire extension at this point. What demands does Hamas say are not being met?

LEE: Well, the one thing Hamas wants to avoid is going back to the status quo where there's no firing of rockets and there's no violence but to break nothing changes on the ground. When I talked to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs earlier, they say the one thing they want is they want the siege, as they believe, on Gaza lifted and that would mean the opening of borders to goods and services could flow in and flow out. The Gazans would be able to live freely, if they wanted to, to other parts of the world. And that is one of the major demand that they have given. And they said that they will continue to fight until those demands are met.

And that's something that's going to be very hard for Israel to accept. And that's why that we see this massive diplomatic efforts in the region also and Europe taking place to try to get these two sides to come together on some sort of deal. But until that happens, it's unlikely that the Gazan militants will be able -- will lay down their weapons.

SIDEN: All right. And obviously, we know that Secretary Kerry and friends and so far that meeting and those meetings with heads of states has not yet been fruitful in this latest conflict here, Miguel.

MARQUEZ: All right, Sara, thank you very much in Jerusalem you and Ian in Gaza. So you keep yourselves safe. Thank you.

Now, the photos are heartbreaking. Children caught in the crossfire, families burying their dead. What will it take to stop it? As devastating images continue to pour in from Israel and Gaza, will the U.S. be able to do anything to stand the bloodshed?

I want to bring in military analyst Lieutenant Colonel Rick Francona and former CIA Operative Bob Baer. Colonel, first to you, is there anything that the Secretary of State, Secretary Kerry has in his quiver that he can bring to bear in terms of crusher to get the two sides to talk?

LT. COL. RICK FRANCONA (RET.), MILITARY ANALYST: It just doesn't seem that there's anything that he can give both sides if they're willing to stop. Hamas wants almost unreasonable things. They're demanding things that the Israelis can't give. And the Israelis would be happy to go back to the status quo but that's unacceptable to Hamas. It's like they're talking passed each other.

MARQUEZ: And getting all the Western leaders together, that sort of pressure on Israel and on Hamas is not going to help?

FRANCONA: That would -- That might be the only thing but I don't see that coming yet. We're not there. The Israelis have an objective and they don't seem that they're going to stop until they do it. They got to stop firing the rockets but they want to destroy those tunnels and wipe out the rest of the inventory. And they won't stop until they achieve some recognizable goal.

MARQUEZ: Can they take the head of Hamas?

FRANCONA: Given enough time and if they're willing to bare the brunt of world opinion. They're starting -- They're losing the P.R. war, I think we all know that.

MARQUEZ: Yes. Bob, I want to bring you in now. Look, the Hamas argument that they want the economic blockade lifted, that's never going to happen. That is a non-starter, I see. But what will get Hamas to the table? What will get them to start talking and get those two sides, the political wing and the military wing of Hamas together to make a decision?

BOB BAER, FORMER CIA OPERATIVE: Well, I agree with Rick. I think like the Israelis, they're not going to stop. I see no clear end to this or immediate end at least to this conflict. That made the Palestinians do have a point of view and so does Hamas is they need to reopen the tunnels, not the tunnels in fact, the borders in the Egypt because they're not getting medicine. They're not getting food. They're not getting concrete or anything.

So, I think that if, you know, there's any out on this and someway we could internationalize that border with Egypt so that those tunnels that could go underneath are closed and yet, food and necessities are getting across the border. But as things stand now, Rick is absolutely right, we're, you know, the Israelis will keep on going until they get right to the bottom of Gaza and destroy the whole thing. Because maybe Netanyu cannot afford to have one of these groups come across under a tunnel and kill Israeli citizens. He would be destroyed politically.

MARQUEZ: Rick?

FRANCONA: And Hamas no longer has a friend in Egypt. General Sisi, President Sisi is no longer friend of Hamas. So, it's going to have to be international.

MARQUEZ: Bob, where is the pressure need to be put, to the Arab world or to Western leaders on Israel or the Arab world on Egypt and on Hamas?

BAER: I would go the gulf myself, to the big money guys, to Qatar, Saudi Arabia and see what sort of peace we could buy. How much money? Let them fork over the money and make sure its not going into weapons. But to let the -- the Palestinians go back in normality.

MARQUEZ: You guys paint a very, very dire picture. Thank you very much. Stick around there, we're going to have you both coming up in a little bit. Coming up shortly though, thousands of residents fleeing city of Donetsk, the fighting there intensifies and moves closer to the crash site of MH17.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MARQUEZ: Well, we are very relieved to report that a Ukrainian journalist detained by pro-Russian forces has been released. Anton Skiba was working for us as a freelance producer for CNN in rebel- controlled Donetsk when he was grabbed Tuesday by armed fighters. Skiba called CNN today to confirm his release. His captors accused him of terrorism but later dropped the charges.

Now, government troops are on the move in Ukraine sparking a mass exodus from the rebel-held eastern city of Donestk. Highways and roads are clogged for miles. The troop advanced East causing residents to flee before government forces try to retake the city. As those forces roll new fighting is reported in areas near crash site of Malaysia flight -- Airlines Flight 17. European investigators actually called off today's trip to the site because of the danger.

CNN's Kyung Luh is standing by for us in the Ukrainian capital of Kiev. Kyung is the government saying anything about this movement of troops toward Donestk?

KYUNG LUH, CNN CORRESPONDENT: While the Ukrainian government forces are acknowledging that they are getting closer to the stronghold and we're also hearing that confirmation from a rebel commander telling CNN that they do acknowledge that those forces are getting closer together. Essentially what the Ukrainian forces are trying to do is strangle this area, the stronghold where we have seen some fighting over the last month. This is something that has been ongoing.

But in the last 24 hours there has been a marked increasing amount of shelling, anti-aircraft fire. So, this is having an impact on this town. This is still a town. So, what its doing for these people is that they're trying to flee. The roads out of the city are completely jammed, trains in and out of the city are shut down.

So, that is what looks like on the ground and all of this, Miguel happening as investigators are still trying to access what is this crime scene, Miguel.

MARQUEZ: And obviously the trouble at that crime scene and the ability to secure it is a great black eye for Ukraine. Is that what is forcing some of these movements right now and can we see a larger effort to try to not only take Donetsk but also to move to secure that crash site by Ukrainian government forces?

LUH: Well, certainly it's a motivating factor. But what -- that's been happening here has been ongoing for the last month. Ukrainian forces are moving in closer because they want to try to retake the city. This is something that has been ongoing. But certainly, the plane crash and this crime scene is a motivating factor. What we are also seeing is that what Ukraine wants is for the international community to see that this is what they've been dealing with. They want international help. We've seen a lot of propaganda both from the Russians as well as Ukrainians. So, this is an international conflict at least the publication of what's happening here at the local level.

MARQUEZ: Moving at a very, very fast pace. Kyung Luh keeping track of it for us. Thank you very much.

Now coming up, Americans in Libya are being warned to get out now. We'll tell you why, coming right up.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SIDNER: Good evening and welcome back. I'm Sara Sidner reporting live from Jerusalem. Now, we're bringing you news out of Libya right now where the U.S. Embassy was evacuated today. Heavy violence among Libyan militia groups have to stop there asking for help weeks ago.

Today, guarded by fighter jet, 180 workers were driven across the border to Tunisia leaving the embassy practically empty. The evacuation came because a stern warning from the state department for all Americans to stay away from Libya for the time being.

Let's bring in U.S. Lieutenant Colonel Rick Francona and former CIA Operative Bob Baer.

Rick, I'm going to start with you. Do you think people are paying more attention to this embassy because of what happened in Benghazi, I mean it is remarkable what we have seen happen in Libya since the revolution?

FRANCONA: Well, Benghazi is always related when you talk about Libya. But, you know, Libya has been a basket case ever since the fall of Gadaffi and the failure of a, you know, a government that coalesce there. So, the situation in Tripoli has just gotten so bad that I think it's probably a wise idea to get people out of there. But, you know, Benghazi is in the back of everybody mind, nobody wants to repeat of what happen there. And when they closed the airport, I think that sent some alarm bells and the Washington is we need to get these people out of here.

SIDNER: This is quite significant isn't it? And what does an embassy do once they leave an area, they obviously have to be somewhere to be a representative of that area as well? So, would that be in Tunisia is that how it would normally work?

FRANCONA: Well, they'll designate another embassy to pick up the, you know, the slack for there but it will be a temporary thing. But yes they'll -- someone will be our representative there in Tripoli. They'll find somebody to do that. It depends on how long this goes on. If it's such a short period of time, they can handle it from offshore but otherwise we'll have to set up an interest section somewhere.

SIDNER: All right. Bob, now to you, John Kerry has pledged diplomatic support to help Libya reform its government, does the U.S. need to spend more boots on the ground even following this -- the situation there with the embassy workers have had to be taken out?

BAER: Sara, I wouldn't spend a penny on Libya. There's no faction we can support that is reliable that can take control of the country. It's intact chaos that we didn't bring on and there's nothing we can do about it, you know. With all Americans gone, we should not be engaged in that country, it may take years.

What we really have to worry about is, does it become a training ground for Jihadists, Egyptians already have problems. There are Egyptians groups training in Libya armed that are coming back in Egypt. They attacked the border post last week. So, that's going to be a danger we're going to have to look out but, you know, we'd send drones in there and the rest of it. It's just a can of worms, I don't know what should do about it except wait it out.

SIDNER: But Bob, you talked about not spending a penny on Libya but don't you think that the U.S. need to stay quite engaged with Libya to try to forth some of the things that could happen like the, you know, growing insurgencies that could spread and eventually attack the West as well.

BAER: You know, it's the same problem we have in Iraq, in Syria. I mean, how do you contain this Jihadist, it's a virus. I mean, I'm not sure I've spent my entire adult life in the Arab world and I'm not sure how you contain it other than putting in a -- protecting the country as you can. But there's not really much we can do there. Like I said, there is not a faction that is predominant or one that's entirely reasonable and I don't see any, you know, general on a white horse that's going to come along. Khalifa Haftar is fairly reasonable but he does not have the troops to retake control of Libya.

SIDNER: All right, interesting analysis from the both of you. Thank you very much for joining us. We appreciated and I'm tossing it now back to Miguel.

MARQUEZ: Thank you very much to Sara Sidner for us in Jerusalem.

The fragile ceasefire between Israel and Gaza has ended. The shelling begins again. So, to the heart-wrenching images of the youngest victims caught in the crossfire.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MARQUEZ: Now to Israel where the 12 hour ceasefire with Hamas has ended. The death toll in Gaza jumped after Palestinians took advantage of that ceasefire to dig through the ruins.

SIDNER: They found more than a hundred bodies in an area that has been too dangerous to enter in recent days because of the bombardment. That pushes the death toll in Gaza to over 1,000 people. At least 40 Israeli soldiers have been killed and three civilians.

The CNN team visiting one of the hardest hit areas in Northern Gaza, not far from where these latest bodies were found, sets entire blocks of buildings have been reduced to rubble. And tensions remained heightened following Thursday's attack on a U.N. shelter where 16 were killed and what was supposed to be a safe haven.

Now, most of the people killed at the U.N. shelter were women and children. And we still don't even know who is responsible for that attack. The Palestinians and Israelis are blaming one another. And the U.N. says both sides are ultimately responsible because they're both fighting.

Dan Rivers of ITV News has more on the incident that has broken Palestinian hearts and ignited their rage.

(BEGIN VIDEOCLIP)

DAN RIVERS, ITN REPORTERS: They have come here at seeking refuge. But today, the war came to this school. The playground peppered with shells, the results look devastating.

A few minutes later, we watched the first casualties arrive at the local hospital, child after bloody child. This boy reeling shock as doctors lost the battle to save a member of his family. For more than 30 minutes, the ambulance crews flooded this tiny hospital with more and more victims.

They are running out to bring in this triage center as ambulance after ambulance has arrived with dozens of injured people including many children.

One of the youngest, this six-month-old baby boy, Akhmed (ph) has shrapnel in his back. There's no time for anesthetic as doctors pluck out the fragments of metal and make room for the next patient.

Nearby, the baby's father, Montha (ph) is hysterical. The father of six tells me his family was waiting in the school playground to be evacuated by the Red Cross when suddenly the shells rain down. He says his children were blown away like pieces of paper. Everywhere we looked, faces contorted in pain, terrible news broken. For many it was too much.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: You want to tell me that Netanyahu made a responsible thing? This is a responsible thing to kill the children, the old women, the children, us? What? What?

RIVERS: The mayhem of this day will never be forgotten by these people. Many, their injuries will be life changing. Agony, too, for those yet to live theirs.

In the end, the injured children were simply treated on the floor so great with their number, and most with the same injuries, shards of metal lacerating their body.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Multiple shrapnels.

RIVERS: How many children have been brought in?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: So much.

RIVERS: The price of this war is etched on each and every face here, staring blankly back in shock -- the innocent victims of this relentless conflict.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SIDNER: Heartbreaking images there.

Coming up, how did we get here? And why aren't images like those enough to stop the fighting? We'll explain coming up next.

But, first, roughly 30 minutes from now a special edition of "THE SITUATION ROOM." Wolf Blitzer is here. He has been here throughout the crisis.

Wolf, tell me what you're working on.

WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR, THE SITUATION ROOM: Well, we got a latest. In about half an hour, we're going to find out from the Israelis, will they extend the cease-fire? It's supposed to go to midnight local time which is coming up in half an hour. We'll see what the Israelis do. We'll see what Hamas does. We're going to speak to Lieutenant Peter Lerner. He's the spokesman for the Israel Defense Forces.

And we've got Marie Harf. She's the spokeswoman for Secretary of State John Kerry. She'll be joining us.

We'll also speak with a Hamas spokesman Osama Hamdan, he'll be joining us. We'll get the Hamas reaction and the Israeli reaction and the U.S. reaction.

A special two-hour SITUATION ROOM. That's coming up right after the break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MARQUEZ: Now Israel's fight with Hamas is just the latest chapter in a much bigger struggle. One that goes back decades. World leaders have tried over and over to end the conflict and find a two-state solution between Israel and the Palestinians. But what we're seeing playing out in Gaza this past week shows just how far that prospect is away.

CNN's Michael Holmes explains how we got here.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MICHAEL HOLMES, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Question one, what are they fighting over. A sliver of land between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River, about the size of Maryland, roughly 10,000 square miles. But that land is some of the most sacred in the world for three religions, Christianity, Judaism, and Islam.

Why is it so important to them?

Sacred sites for all three, for Christians Bethlehem the birthplace of Jesus and Jerusalem where he was crucified and rose to heaven. For Muslims, Al-Aqsa Mosque, the third holiest site in all of Islam, and that mosque sits on the Temple Mount, holiest site in all of Judaism.

So, who lives there? More than 12.3 million people nearly the same as live in Pennsylvania but in a much, much smaller area. Just over half that number are Jews, and that is one concern for Israel.

Why is Israel's population a concern? Well, birthrates stay the same and the area isn't split into two states, some day, Palestinians will outnumber Jews. This represents a potential demographic shift which some believe would threaten the very foundation of the Jewish state.

How long have Arabs and Israel been openly fighting? Well, basically since Israel declared independence in 1948. After declaring independence, it was immediately attacked by Arab neighbors including Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq.

Israel fought them again in 1967 and 1973. Eventually some of those countries like Egypt and Jordan made peace with Israel, but the fate of Palestinian refugees is still a source of great tension between Israel and the Arab world.

So, who is Hamas? A Palestinian organization that rules in Gaza. Considered a terrorist group by many countries including the U.S. and Israel, its political wing holds a majority in the Palestinian legislature. With most of the other seats held by its political rival Fatah, which rules the other Palestinian territory, the West Bank.

Hamas' charter pledges the group to the destruction of Israel. And it's never given up that fight. It uses its weapons, including rockets, to attack Israeli towns. So, how does this end?

The international community encourages a so-called two-state solution, an independent Palestine and Israel, living in peace, side by side. But the two sides can't even agree on the borders to say nothing of the other issues. Such as whether Palestine should have a military or Israel's controversial blockade of Gaza or what happens to those Jewish settlements on the West Bank an area which holds increasingly precious water resources. Right now they seem stuck as uneasy neighbors with an uncertain future.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MARQUEZ: Now, coming up an Air Algerie flight that crashed killing more -- 118 people. Officials say the plane seemed to have disintegrated. I'll tell you why investigators maybe closer to figuring out why.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MARQUEZ: For anyone with a fear of flying, the past ten days it may have pushed your panic button. July 17th -- that's the day Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 was shot from the sky over Ukraine, killing all 298 people on board. Investigating this site made the more dangerous by renewed fighting.

Listen to what this European investigator told CNN last hour.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MICHAEL BOCIURKIW, OSCE SPOKESMAN: I can tell you at 2:00 or 3:00 in the morning very, very loud shelling from the distance and it was sustained. It wasn't just for five or ten minutes. It was sustained. And I know that a lot of foreign journalists staying here and our colleagues were woken up by that. It's not the first night that that has happened.

So, you know, of course, everyone has their contingency plans in case things escalate. But I'm quite confident that tomorrow we can go ahead with our plan and get out to that crash site.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MARQUEZ: Jump forward five days. July 23rd, Trans-Asia airways flight crashed while trying to land on a Taiwanese island. Fifty- eight people on board, 48 of them died. Then there's July 24th. Two days ago. That's when an Air Algerie flight with 118 people on board crashed in a rainstorm over northern Mali. Everyone on that flight died.

So, what brought down that Air Algerie Flight 5017 two days ago? It was headed from Burkina Faso in West Africa, to Algiers, but crashed less than an hour into the flight.

Officials aren't ruling anything out yet, but weather they are saying is likely a factor. Severe weather is always a challenge for pilots, but bad weather near the earth's equator can be especially devastating.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MARQUEZ (voice-over): Flying into any storm can be a bumpy, white- knuckling experience. But flying into bad weather near the equator can be a nightmare known as the intertropical convergence zone, a band of unsettled weather around the earth's equator where some of the most ferocious storms can develop. You've flown in a lot of storms?

DANIEL ROSE, AVIATION EXPERT: I've flown in more storms than I'd like to.

MARQUEZ (on camera): What does it feel like to fly into a serious thunderstorm?

ROSE: Well, it can be anything from, you know, Mr. Toad's wild ride to the most harrowing experience you can imagine that you don't think you're going to get through it.

MARQUEZ (voice-over): In Saharan Africa, powerful sandstorms, a product of the intertropical convergence zone, a challenge for any pilot. This aircraft coming in for a landing goes directly into the storm. Hear the engines rev as the plane catches the sandstorm. The sky turns red. Visibility zero.

Weather is suspected as the cause or a contributing factor in the crash of Air Algerie Flight 5017. There was trouble on the radar, a massive thunderstorm moving right through 5017's flight path. The 18- year-old McDonnell Douglas 83 aircraft departed Burkina Faso's Ouagadougou Airport at 1:17 a.m., on its way to Algeria's capital. To get there, it had to cross the ITCZ, that band of unpredictable weather around the world's equator where terrible weather can develop.

At 1:38 a.m., Flight 5017 asked if it could change routes. A storm had developed over its intended course. The plane made its way east, then north again. Last contact, 17 minutes later, near Gao, Mali.

Just maybe an eerie similarity to Air France Flight 447, 228 people on board en route from Rio de Janeiro to Paris on June 1st, 2009. Pilots on the Airbus 330 were flying through an enormous storm spawned by the intertropical convergence zone.

ROSE: If you fly underneath that, that can be some of the most dangerous parts of the thunderstorm.

MARQUEZ (on camera): Intense winds coming down at you and from different directions. ROSE: And hail.

MARQUEZ (voice-over): Flight 447 was more than 30,000 feet over the Atlantic. The storm shot up to more than 50,000 feet. The pilot added power and climbed until the plane stalled, losing all control and slammed into the ocean from 38,000 feet.

The crash of Flight 447 found to be pilot error. What caused Flight 5017 to crash now, under intense investigation.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MARQUEZ: Now, France has declared a three-day mourning period beginning monday to honor the victims of Flight 5017.

I want to bring in CNN aviation analyst, Miles O'Brien, along with military analyst, retired Air Force Lieutenant Colonel Rick Francona, and air safety analyst David Soucie.

David, I want to ask you first about this plane and about the crash site. We know that it's a very specific crash site unlike MH17. It's all in one place. What does that tell us?

DAVID SOUCIE, CNN SAFETY ANALYST: Well, from what I've seen here, I can't see anything other than an initial impact point and what we call the scatter point. The scatter point is the first impact with the ground. This is very similar to me to the Colorado Spring accident in which the aircraft went straight into the ground as well and that's what this looks like to me, is it did not skim. It didn't skip. There was an in-flight break-up, it looks to me pretty solid all the way down to the ground.

MARQUEZ: And with that level of destruction I take it, it would have come down from a very high altitude?

SOUCIE: High rate of speed certainly.

MARQUEZ: And a high rate of speed.

Colonel, there are factions in Mali, there is fighting there. Is there any indication that if this flight is up above 20,000 feet, probably in the 30,000 feet range, that they could have brought this thing down?

FRANCONA: It doesn't appear so. The rebels fighting in this area don't have that capability. We haven't seen any kind of heavy equipment like the SA-11 that we saw in the Ukraine.

So, they have -- they do have the shoulder-fired, but this was way above that. So we're not thinking that.

MARQUEZ: And shoulder-fired, you are talking about two miles up, about 12,000 feet?

FRANCONA: Well, some may go up to 15. Some of the higher end ones as high as 17, but it tops out right about there, 15 is what we say. MARQUEZ: So, you would have to have been flying very low midway to

the flight.

FRANCONA: And slow enough that they can track you. Jets are going pretty quick at that altitude.

MARQUEZ: Miles, you're the first one to have raised this idea of this band of weather around the equator and these terrible storms that can develop out of there. Is there anything that pilots can do to minimize the risks when they are flying around this area? Clearly weather is everything in flying.

MILES O'BRIEN, CNN AVIATION ANALYST: The simple answer, Miguel, is not to fly through those giant cells. And that's easier said than done when you have a huge cell that is perhaps 100 miles in diameter as this one was, with tops at 49,000 feet. You're not going to go over it. You really need to go around it.

Now, on this flight, it just so happens that those two city pairs were just about the range of that MD-83, and so, I'm going to guess that if they had gone all the way around that storm, they probably wouldn't have had enough fuel to get to their destination. They would have had to stop at an intermediate location, all kinds of explaining to the bosses on that, all kinds of paperworks. Delays. You name it. But the bottom line is a crew shouldn't feel that kind of pressure. They should be able to make that decision.

MARQUEZ: Well, it does appear that they tried to go right around that storm but maybe that storm was moving too fast and it caught them too quickly, if it went up that high to 49,000 feet certainly the winds coming off of that storm would have been intense. This was a flight, Miles, that was operated by a charter company from Spain.

It was -- it was on lease from Air Algerie. The maintenance standards -- how are those maintained when you have these various entities leasing and operating planes?

O'BRIEN: Well, in this case the company that owns it would have taken responsibility for the maintenance, would have been under the European maintenance guidelines. And I don't think we should be too worried about maintenance. Obviously, it's something investigators check.

Again, I always tell people don't put the blinders on at this point and David Soucie will say amen to that one. But, you know, on the top of the list right now, we're going to have to look at weather.

Well, was their weather radar working, which would be a maintenance issue and perhaps is that a go/no-go decision on the part of the crew flying at night over the desert with all those storms. Without the weather radar, they are pretty blind. It was kind of limited, air traffic control capability and radar coverage there, so they really would have been on their own and in the dark without weather radar.

MARQUEZ: David, the pilot I spoke to says when you have to go around a storm, you try to stay around 20 miles away from it or so. But if it shoots up too high and you have massive winds -- SOUCIE: You can end up with downdrafts as it is comes back down on

the other side and we've lost several aircraft because of that in the past as well, because you're coming in to land, especially, you have times when you are trying to maintain the attitude of the aircraft. As you do that, if you get a down draft, you got have to lift up to get through it. If you're past it, now, you've stalled and get into real trouble on the other end of it.

MARQUEZ: And the investigation, Colonel, it appears to be going the way these things are supposed to go despite it being in Mali.

FRANCONA: Because they've been able to get French forces on the ground there to secure that site. So, nobody's there that shouldn't be. And the investigators will have all the tools they need when they need them as opposed to what we saw in the Ukraine.

MARQUEZ: Thank you all. Colonel, David, and Miles, thank you all.

Coming up, the parents, one of the victims on Flight 15, aren't letting a war zone keep them from visiting the crash site and paying their final respects to their daughter. We caught up with them in Ukraine. Their story coming right up.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MARQUEZ: Now, more than a week after Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 went down in Eastern Ukraine, Malaysian investigators still have not been able to access the entire crash site, but for the parents of one victim, the wait too much.

CNN's Kyung Lah caught up with one couple as they embark on a harrowing journey to the crash site.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Go, go, go.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Go.

LAH (voice-over): George and Angela Dyczynski can almost feel their daughter, they're that close, but they can't get there.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: A couple of minutes, please?

LAH: These men are local Ukrainian government officials, urging these parents not to enter the pro-Russian held area of Donetsk. The Dyczynskis flew by themselves to Ukraine from Australia with nothing other than shock and grief.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We have to go. There's no other way.

LAH: Their 25-year-old daughter Fatima was aboard Flight 17, flying to Australia to see them.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We go, because -- we go -- LAH: With an outrageous disregard of the crash scene from the very

beginning, and only black bags and unmarked coffins coming out, the Dyczynski have chosen to grieve with denial.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: And we believe she's alive. Every second counts. Every second --

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: And our purpose is to find her.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Exactly.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: So it doesn't help us to be angry.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I need to see the real fact, so that's why we came. Besides that we, our daughter promised, we will find her. It's mom and dad. So, this is the mom and dad.

LAH: They poured their lives into their only child. She was an aerospace engineer who dreamed of being an astronaut. She believed space exploration could help bring stability to earth.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: The experience of space flight is a life- changing event.

LAH: How can you let a child like that go?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: There is an urgency, because my belief that she is alive cannot be sustained if this takes 30 days.

LAH: Frustration mounting as the minutes tick by.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: No chance to come back.

LAH: And these government reps get embassies on the phone to talk to them.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: You have not sorted this out. Please do not contact me anymore!

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Our daughter is there. And we are running out of time!

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: So the risk, we know. No worries.

LAH: Finally, they're told to go at their own risk. This private car promises to drive them through the battle lines of rebel-held territory, where a parent's love has no boundaries.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MARQUEZ: Kyung, I'm dumbfounded by this, the love and the hope that these people have. What is next for them?

LAH: Well, we did hear from them. They made it to the crash site. And I want to explain how difficult this task is. They had to drive three hours on the Ukrainian side before they got to the border separating Ukraine from the rebel-held territory. And then they had to go through a number of checkpoints but they finally got to the crash site. They were able to walk through one part of the crash scene. And they were also able to lay flowers.

But Miguel, as to whether or not this is closure for them, it's not. They're still hoping that their child is alive, although all the evidence is to the contrary.

MARQUEZ: Still hoping that she is alive. They want some proof. Clearly, the first identification has been made today of the 298 by Dutch officials.

Is there a concern among Ukrainian officials that more parents are going to come?

LAH: There is a concern by a lot of international investigators. A lot of times when there are these crash scenes, these investigations, what does happen is the parents -- or the family members show up. There is that natural urge to go to the disaster. But what investigators are saying and what they are urging is, do not come. This is a conflict zone. It is extraordinarily dangerous. It is extremely difficult. They say that parents, relatives, they need to stay out of this area. They need to let the professionals try to access it.

And remember, Miguel, they're having trouble getting to it themselves so they're asking them to please stay away for their own safety.

MARQUEZ: That is what is extraordinary about this amazing story, incredible grit on their behalf. Thank you for bringing it to us. Kyung Lah in Kiev, thanks.

I'm Miguel Marquez in New York and I'll see you back here at 7:00 p.m. Eastern Time. A special edition of "SITUATION ROOM" with Wolf Blitzer live in Jerusalem begins, right now.