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Search for Flight 8501 Broadens; Did AirAsia Flight Stall; Latest Real-Time Aviation Technology is Available at a Price; Answering Viewer Questions on Flight 8501

Aired December 29, 2014 - 14:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ANA CABRERA, CNN ANCHOR: Thanks for staying with us. I'm Ana Cabrera.

We have new developments in the mysterious disappearance of AirAsia flight 8501. In three hours, the search will resume but instead of the search being narrowed down, the area is going to be bigger. They are scouring not just seven zones but 11 now. Searchers will be looking between the islands of Borneo, Java and Sumatra. Indonesia has asked the U.S. for help in this search, specifically with sonar technology.

And although this is still being called a search-and-rescue mission, the hope is fading fast. And the families and friends of the 162 people who were aboard this plane are now in an agonizing limbo. The daughter of a man, who captained this plane, taking to social media with a heartbreaking message. It reads, "Dad, please come home. I still need you. Please return, dad. Dad, come home. Dad, you have to come home."

While the head of the Indonesian search team says the plane missing, AirAsia plane and its 162 passengers are likely at the bottom of the Java Sea they have not given up. The search will resume again at daybreak with a very expanded area.

We have CNN's Tom Foreman joining us from Washington with a look at what search crews will be up against -- Tom?

TOM FOREMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: What they are mainly up against, Ana, is an awful lot of territory. Take a look at the flight pattern over the Java Sea. You see these models of planes. In reality they are merely specs out here. Look at the search area. This is the seven zone map. Here's a sense of size. If you look at this area up here, this is roughly the size of the state of Indiana, and this is around something like South Carolina. So, these are really quit substantial areas, if you have an idea of the size of a state like that. And searching from this, from the air will take a tremendous amount of time. You'll remember in Air France where they had a very good idea where the plane went down it still took several days before any wreckage was found on the surface. They have to work their way through it. While they do this, they have to deal with the very thing that some people think may have caused this crash. Storm systems can move through this area at any moment, so even as they get all those assets out there, they could be up against real challenges covering a lot of space -- Ana?

CABRERA: We know there are a lot of countries helping in this search. As we just discussed, the U.S. has joined in helping. Do you know what kind of assistance the U.S. will be providing?

FOREMAN: We don't know what they will be sending at this point. We know what they can send. Think back to what we had with Malaysia Air. Ships involved. Some of the most sophisticated planes in the world searching for submarines involved. The Bluefin-21, sonar buoys, all could be deployed.

But something to bear in mind, when you talk about the areas that we're dealing with right here, this is all on a geographic formation called the shelf. Everything you see here is one of the most shallow seas in the world. In some places this may be only 75 feet deep. At most, maybe 150, maybe 200 feet deep, within diving range of scuba divers. So the truth is a lot of the search from taxpayer people can look down through this clear water. All these amazing assets out there, we don't know what will be deployed there because, honestly, we don't know what's needed. First of all, flying over shallow waters, looking for debris, looking down in the water to see if there's a sign of large airplane with an insignia, they have to do that first.

You mentioned it being a rescue mission. That becomes a matter of semantics. Whether it's a search for wreckage or any hope people can be alive out there, that will be decided day in and day out as they look at the water conditions, how long people are out there, and what they are looking for -- Ana?

CABRERA: It being shallow water it sounds encouraging we may have answers sooner than later.

(CROSSTALK)

CABRERA: Tom Foreman, thank you for explaining it. It definitely helps to put it in perspective for all of us.

As crews continue to search for the plane, investigators continue their search for answers as to what happened to flight 8501.

And we have a screen grab we want to show you that might provide some insight. Again, we want to stress this is just a theory at this point. The images of radar purported to show how fast the AirAsia plane was going. You see there in the lower right side, it says AWQ- 8501. And then it says 353 and then 363, with an arrow pointing up. OK. A lot of numbers. Let me explain it. The three six three is for 36,300 feet. 353 is the speed in knots.

According to airlineratings.com, which obtained this screen grab, this indicates that 8501 stalled, moving about 100 miles too slowly for such a high altitude.

This website's editor-in-chief spoke with CNN. Listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) GEOFFREY THOMAS, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF, AIRLINERATINGS.COM: It's a wing stall not an engine stall. I have to clarify that. It's a little bit confusing to the viewers when you talk about a stall, you think about your car stalling on the freeway. This is an aerodynamic stall, because there's not enough speed or the plane is too sharp of an angle and the air on top of the wing is disturbed and no longer giving lift.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CABRERA: Let's turn to author of "Why Planes Crash," CNN safety analyst, David Soucie.

David, what do you think about this theory? Is it possible, the wing stall?

DAVID SOUCIE, CNN SAFETY ANALYST & AUTHOR: Yeah, it definitely is at this point. If you're climbing at that rate, at that altitude, and you're trying to go through that transitional period, if you don't have enough air speed, that's a bad position to be in. It's called coffin corner, where you stalled and no recovery from it.

CABRERA: We just want to emphasize we don't know if that's exactly what happened here. But if it were a wing stall that happened, what causes that?

SOUCIE: If you remember as a kid, and I used to do this all the time, driving down the highway sticking your handout the window. As long as your hand is going in this direction and it's going up and down, you're fine. If you go like this, the wind is very strong against you and very difficult to control where your hand is in that wind. This is very similar to that. The wing, when in it's at the right flight altitude, the air is going over there smoothly. When the angle of the attack goes against the wind to such an area where the air behind it starts to burble and breaks that suction, now you take that amount of air you feel on this and multiple it times the size of the ceiling --

(CROSSTALK)

CABRERA: You're literally stuck.

SOUCIE: Yes. Right. It just releases that lift. And then, at that point, the aircraft goes down. The objective then is to get enough air speed over the wing by putting the nose down, getting the aircraft down. It's counter intuitive to do that. If you're stalling and falling, the last thing you think you should do is push down but that's what you have to do that to get the air over the top of the wing again and re-establish the lighter weight on top, reestablish --

(CROSSTALK)

CABRERA: To get up to speed a little bit and get some control to steady it.

SOUCIE: Exactly.

(CROSSTALK) CABRERA: So would it be pilot error to blame if you get in a wing stall situation?

SOUCIE: Pilot error is something I don't like to get into too much. That's what we call the proximate cause, the last thing that could have prevented the accident before it happens. Why it's there in the first place is not necessarily the pilot's fault. And we have to understand, too, it could be he didn't have enough information to know if some of the systems he relies on, and sometimes over relies on, to tell him what position the aircraft is. The air speed indicators, for example, in flight 447. In that accident, the air speed indicators were not working and he no idea what speed he was. Whether he was under speeding or --

(CROSSTALK)

CABRERA: So he didn't even know. Sometimes you're in limbo up in the air.

SOUCIE: Right. That's right. Whereas, in this case, we don't know. Your point was good about we don't know what happened. People say, "Why are you speculating? Why are you doing this? It's horrible for the families." The reason we speculate is to assist in the finding of the aircraft. Where is the aircraft? Because if it's a power-on stall, a deep stall like this one, it could go in literally any direction after that stall.

CABRERA: So a wing stall means it broadens the area you have to look?

SOUCIE: Yeah. It's actually an air stall.

(CROSSTALK)

CABRERA: Air stall, OK.

CABRERA: -- but it's the stall of the air over the top of the wing that really causes this. And so after that, the aircraft trying to get that air speed could go right, could go left, could turn around, go another direction. That helps us determine where the air craft was. If it was a different kind of stall, it would have continued in the same direction. So these are pieces of information that seem cruel to people listening, and we want to just make it real clear, we don't know what happened. But by all indications that we have so far, it appears this is what happened.

CABRERA: It gives us reason to know why the area they are looking at may be expanding.

(CROSSTALK)

CABRERA: Right.

David Soucie, thank you for the expertise.

SOUCIE: My pleasure. CABRERA: And tonight, CNN investigates another big plane disappearance. You probably have thought about Malaysia Airlines flight 370 as we've been talking about this AirAsia flight 8501. Don't miss "Vanished" at 9:00 p.m. eastern.

Up next, why aren't some planes tracked in real-time? A new piece of technology proves it is possible, at a price. You'll see that.

Plus, would a plane fly in the U.S. if the weather was this bad? The surprising answer just ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CABRERA: Another passenger jet down, a frantic search, but no sign of this missing flight. This latest aviation tragedy re-opens an old debate, if technology exists to provide a plane's flight data in real- time from the plan to ground control, then why rely on the black box, especially since the information contained within that black box is lost with the plane.

Alison Kosik shows us real-time technology is available at a price.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ALISON KOSIK, CNN BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Right now, when an airplane disappears the story of what went wrong vanishes with the black box. But what if we had those answers all along?

RICHARD HAYDEN, FORMER DIRECTOR, FLIGHT: We would know where the aircraft has gone, where it is, and we would have information on what happened in the meantime.

KOSIK: A Canadian company, Flight, makes life streaming recorders that sends in the form real-time. It's part of a satellite based system that monitors a plane's exact lotion, engine conditions and more.

HAYDEN: The system transmits, say, every five to 10 minute on a normal flight.

KOSIK: If something goes wrong like the plane deviating from its route the system will start streaming live second-by-second data.

MARY SCHIAVO, CNN AVIATION ANALYST: That kind of information is not only life-saving but adds a tremendous amount of security for your country.

KOSIK: There are several mechanisms transmit a plane's data. But Hayden says, unlike those systems, the technology behind flight is more extensive, sharing a tremendous amount of information. So much information, critics say, it could be difficult to monitor and analyze if widely adopted. Right now, Flight technology is only fitted to a few hundred planes. It can be installed for about $100,000. Normal data transmission costs between a few dollars to $15 per flight hour, and goes up for continuous streaming in a rare emergency, cost carriers might not be willing to pay. SCHIAVO: They are cost sensitive and will not add additional safety

measures unless mandated by the federal government.

KOSIK: But with more questions about another missing commercial jet, the hi-tech black box may get a second look.

HAYDEN: The technology exists. It's in service. It's economical. The question now is how to get more widespread use.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CABRERA: Alison Kosik is joining me now.

OK, Alison, we just heard that last person in your piece says it's economical, even though it seems like a high price. Why aren't more planes putting this in?

KOSIK: Cost is a reality. The reality is that these carriers operate on thin margins, not so anxious to jump in and put these satellite communications services on the planes.

Also, there's got to be political will. I'm talking from the FAA. They don't seem so fast to jump on the band wagon to get this kind of communication on to the airplanes. I spoke with a person from the FAA today saying, look, there are the black boxes. She told me they work. She also said, many don't know this, but there are satellite communication services on these planes that have instant e-mail communication to and from the control towers.

The reality with that though, with something like that, it needs turned on. In the case of the missing Malaysia flight 370, that particular service communication service was not on. With this missing AirAsia flight 8501, we're not sure what happened there.

CABRERA: All right, Alison Kosik, thank you. Interesting to know the technology is there, though.

And we know many planes depend on auto pilot to get them to their destinations safe and sound. We talk about technology, but do pilots rely on that technology too much? And does it perhaps slow their reaction times, especially at critical moments? We'll answer some of your Twitter questions just ahead.

And CNN's Impact Your World has links to resources to help those directly affected by this disaster, this tragedy. Check out CNN.com/impact.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CABRERA: So many questions still surround the disappearance of flight 8501, and many focus on a couple of different mysteries. First, the rough water over the Java Sea, and second, how planes can simply vanish into thin air despite all of our modern technology.

Here to answer some of the questions that you are asking via Twitter is William Savage, a pilot. Bill, thank you so much for spending some time with us.

First, a viewer question for you: "Are pilots relying on auto pilot too greatly? Not fully training pilots for all situational decisions?" What do you think?

WILLIAM SAVAGE, PILOT: Well, it's an overstatement to say that pilots rely too heavily on the auto pilots. Most pilots fly the takeoffs or are required to be flown by hand, and most pilots in less than really low weather will hand land the airplane as a common occurrence of their every day job.

We are tested quite frequently twice a year in the simulators. And are required to hand fly single-engine approaches and go-arounds. So we get a lot of hands on time and most. Most pilots really enjoy flying the airplane.

For myself, I used to fly the airplane to 10,000 feet sometimes higher after takeoff and would generally hand land the airplane if the weather was, you know, in visual conditions.

CABRERA: We don't know a lot about what happened specifically but we do know weather was an issue. If a similar weather pattern, asks one viewer, "If it existed within the United States, would an airline go ahead with the flight or would it be cancelled or delayed?"

SAVAGE: Well, the United States airlines, of course, we use a dispatch system, and the captain, in concert with the dispatchers, evaluate the weather and determine what the efficacy of continuation of that flight is. Normally, if the severe weather is right over the field that would interfere with the exit path during takeoff, we'll wait and let the weather pass by. Most thunderstorms are moving quite rapidly and only takes a few minutes to get into a clearer or better situation. But there are times when you have to wait.

CABRERA: Who makes that call? Is it the pilot or somebody above him?

SAVAGE: Well, in the aircraft, it's always the captain makes the decision. He's using the radar to look out in front of his flight path and down line to see what type of situation will develop for him. And quite frequently, if that radar scope is red or purple, they will be waiting.

CABRERA: We talked about how this particular pilot did ask to change his altitude, to go up because of this storm and the weather he was approaching. So John wants to know, "Can pilots override traffic control amidst imminent danger?"

SAVAGE: Absolutely. The pilots can always declare an emergency. That's the first thing you do. And then, whatever you do with the airplane is totally the responsibility of the captain. And in this situation, a reversal of 180 degrees and exit, as well as a descent to an eastbound altitude would have been a completely reasonable thing to do if that turbulence was as severe as it may have been and they were not able to communicate with air traffic control. The captain always has the ability to declare an emergency and do whatever he needs to do to maintain safety of flight.

CABRERA: OK. So Spencer tweeted, "I could figure it stalling. But why could this plane not just steer down?" Do you think the engine could have been hit by something?

SAVAGE: Well, you know, in a thunderstorm, if they entered a thunderstorm, the ingestion of precipitation and particularly hail may have damaged the engines and caused the power interruption, which would then, you know, necessitate a great deal of activity in the cockpit trying to restore their power. But, you know, until we get the black boxes, we won't know what's going on with the engines.

CABRERA: That's an interesting segue right into this next question, because David asks specifically about those black boxes and we've been talking about real-time tracking. Here's a different take or a spin on that idea. He says, "Why can't in-flight cockpit recorders be recorded real-time electronically for instant answers?"

SAVAGE: Well, most modern-day airplanes do have that capability. And particularly the Western airlines that are, you know, well funded, have the infrastructure in their control departments to be receiving that information that is transmitted online as the aircraft flies. That's how each control tracks the flights they're operating through the world. And they stay in communication with that aircraft. If they see something that they question on the ground, they'll communicate with the aircraft as to what is going on.

CABRERA: What's missing from the equation in this circumstance?

SAVAGE: Well, I think really the issue is, how close did they get to those thunderstorms, what entry conditions they had met, and what transpired once they had entered that severe weather.

CABRERA: A lot of questions to be answered.

Bill Savage, thank you for helping us.

SAVAGE: You're welcome.

CABRERA: And up next, the heartbreaking message from the pilot's daughter.

Plus, lessons learned and the differences between this flight and the disappearance of flight 370.

We're back in a moment.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CABRERA: Siskel and Ebert became household names, and their thumbs-up or thumbs-down ratings. The critics may have gotten along on screen but, off-screen, their personal interactions were full of tensions, competition, and sometimes icy encounters.

Watch this clip. This is from a CNN film, "Life Itself," in which colleagues described how their relationship played out behind the scene.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Roger is an only child. He was used to getting his own way. Absolutely. He could be a real big baby when he didn't get what he wanted. Gene, on the other hand, he would just go in there and pummel you until you agreed with him. Gene, OK, you're right. Got it.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It wasn't a game with him. He saw something, he wanted it to happen, he made it happen.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Gene was very good at reading Roger's daybook upside down.

As soon as he saw L.A. and the date, he knew what films were coming out. He knew what big star that Roger would be going out to interview. And that's all it took for him to make sure that he got the interview before Roger got it.

Fumes, you could almost see coming out of Roger's head. Gene had done him in again, that rascally rabbit.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(LAUGHTER)

CABRERA: "Life Itself" airs this Sunday at 9:00 p.m. Eastern here on CNN.