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Syrian President in Russia; Paul Ryan Sets Conditions; Joe Biden Not Running. Aired 3-3:30p ET

Aired October 21, 2015 - 15:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[15:00:03]

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

NARRATOR: Crosby had no idea this would be the key to opening doors for those without a home.

CAITLIN CROSBY, ACTRESS AND SINGER: We now hire people that are trying to transition out of homelessness to engrave keys. We've partnered up with Chrysalis. They screen the people for us to make sure we're hiring people that are really trying to change their lives and make sure that they're ready for this change.

NARRATOR: And giving people like Giovani (ph) a new beginning.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Thank you for not judging me based on my past, but where I'm striving to go in my life.

CROSBY: High-five.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BALDWIN: Here we go, breaking news. I'm Brooke Baldwin. You're watching CNN, beginning with the answer to the political mystery that has been consuming Washington and really many outside the Beltway for months and months.

Vice President Joe Biden is not running for president. After months of speculation and guessing games and recent jabs at Hillary Clinton, the vice president revealed his decision with his wife and President Obama standing right next to him. We will play you quite a bit from that moment in the Rose Garden in just a second.

But, first, moments ago, one of the candidates he would have competed against, Senator Bernie Sanders, just weighed in on Biden's decision.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. BERNIE SANDERS (VT-I), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I just wanted to say a brief word on Joe Biden.

Joe Biden is a man who has devoted his entire life to public service and to the well-being of working families and the middle class. He made a difficult decision based on the needs of his family and his view of his future. And I respect the decision that he made. I want to thank Joe Biden

and President Obama for the work that they have done over the last seven years in making very significant improvements to our economy. Obviously, we have a long way to go, but because of Joe Biden, because of President Obama, we have seen significant progress in the last seven years.

Let us not forget that seven years ago, we were losing 800,000 jobs a month. Seven years ago, the world's financial system was on the verge of collapse, and we were running the largest deficit in the history of this country.

JOSEPH BIDEN, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: As my family and I have worked through the grieving process, I have said all along, what I have said time and again to others, that it may very well be that that process, by the time we get through it, closes the window on mounting a realistic campaign for president, that it might close.

I have concluded it has closed. I know from previous experience that there's no timetable for this process. The process doesn't respect or much care about things like filing deadlines or debates and primaries and caucuses.

But I also know that I could do this if -- I couldn't do this if the family wasn't ready. The good news is, the family has reached that point. But, as I have said many times, my family has suffered loss, and I hoped there would come a time -- and I have said this to many other families -- that sooner rather than later, when you think of your loved one, it brings a smile to your lips before it brings a tear to your eyes. Well, that's where the Bidens are today, thank God.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: All right, let me bring in CNN's Stephen Collinson in Washington.

Steven, I just got handed some information. This is actually reporting -- let's give credit where credit is due, to Gloria Borger, and this is with a source familiar with Biden's thinking. And the source proves out two crucial points in the timeline as far as why not to run.

Number one, his "Colbert" appearance where they said he bared his soul, hard to pivot out of that. Number two, it was the Congressman Clyburn remarks on Monday, who he -- who the vice president admires very much, saying that Biden would not be doing himself any favors by getting in. Your reaction.

STEPHEN COLLINSON, CNN SENIOR POLITICS CORRESPONDENT: Right, Brooke, I think that makes a lot of sense.

Remember that appearance on "Colbert." Vice President Joe Biden spoke very movingly about the death of his son. And once you have said that it's going to be very difficult for your family to get to a point where you're emotionally able to conduct a presidential run, that was only a few weeks ago, it becomes very difficult to then argue that they actually have reached that point, although the vice president did say that his family is doing a lot better now.

[15:05:00]

And the South Carolina point is very significant, because, if Biden had got into this race, he was some way behind in Iowa. There wasn't really space for him in New Hampshire, where Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are both very strong. So, South Carolina was going to be the place where he could plant his flag.

Bernie Sanders isn't too strong down in South Carolina and it would have been a sort of tussle for the African-American vote especially in that Democratic primary between Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton. If somebody like Clyburn comes out and says this is just not going to be possible, I think that would weigh very heavily on the vice president's mind on this issue.

BALDWIN: But, Stephen, I feel like it's so easy right now to say, aha, now we understand why the vice president is not doing this. But we have been saying for the last couple of weeks -- and I have talked to a lot of people who say the Biden campaign has been swinging for weeks now, even over the weekend, his meeting with a top union representative from the most powerful firefighter union coming out of the weekend and saying it's a go.

What happened in the last 24 to 48 hours, do you think?

COLLINSON: Right. We understand that the vice president didn't finally make his final decision not to go until last night. I think there was definitely a sense that he was leaving lanes open for himself to run all through the preceding weeks, even up until yesterday, when he was criticizing Hillary Clinton's remark in the Democratic debate last week that Republicans were her enemy.

I think in this sense, you do keep the lanes open even when you're making that final decision. But I think as well as the emotional soul-searching the vice president was going through about his family, he cannot have been sort of ignorant of the fact that he was in third place in this race. The lane for him to run a credible presidential campaign at this late stage was very narrow.

And a lot of things would have to go right for him, namely the fact that probably Hillary Clinton's campaign would have to implode. And I don't think as well there was a sense that the vice president was necessarily ready to stand on a debate stage and tell Hillary Clinton and a Democratic audience that she couldn't win the Democratic nomination.

BALDWIN: Stephen Collinson, excellent perspective. Thank you for so much your voice here.

COLLINSON: Thanks, Brooke.

BALDWIN: Let me just remind everyone watching I was sitting in a seat here at CNN not even 48 hours ago, I was anchoring "CNN TONIGHT," and I asked the panel this question about Joe Biden.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: Show of hands, fellows. Show of hands. Who thinks Biden is not going to go for it and run for president?

OK, the lone holdout. I feel this is that "Sesame Street." You're the one that is standing out there.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: Well, now that lone hand-raiser gets to say I told you so. He is Harry Enten. He's with the group FiveThirtyEight.com. Also with me, Peter Daou, former adviser to Hillary Clinton and John Kerry, also the co-founder of Hillary Men.

So great to have both of you on.

And you were right.

HARRY ENTEN, FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM: I was right.

BALDWIN: You were right. Don't you guys like to hear that?

ENTEN: I love hearing that. I love being told I'm right.

BALDWIN: How did you guess that? Remind us.

ENTEN: It wasn't really a guess. We heard these media reports over and over again. Oh, he's 24 hours, he's 48 hours, he's 72 hours. But he did not build a campaign apparatus that was necessary to run for president at this late stage.

It's already October 21, very, very late. Sanders, Clinton, O'Malley, even Lincoln Chafee have been in the race for a very long period of time. They have built the necessarily campaign in order to run credibly. At least, Clinton and Sanders and O'Malley have. And Biden hasn't.

BALDWIN: Yes. You could tell there watching him, Peter, that he so badly has wanted this. He's wanted this for decades. You can sort of feel the heart struggling with the head.

PETER DAOU, FORMER ADVISER TO HILLARY CLINTON: Yes. Yes.

To me, it was one of the classic existential decisions that a human being has to make. I already admired and respected him. But I have to say, after this decision, which in my mind, of course, as a strong advocate for Hillary Clinton, was the right decision, right for the future of women, right for the future of the party.

So it says a lot about his character to go through this process and to reach the right decision, when it's so tempting to take the other path.

BALDWIN: That's a great point.

Let me stay with you because this was the fourth time at the Rose Garden when we heard some sort of iteration of the swipe in reference to Hillary Clinton at the debate and the enemy line. I talked to Senator Boxer a second ago. And she said, Brooke, she was kidding with the Republicans, saying it was a joke.

But still Joe Biden jumped on that. And you tweeted, "We can't look at Republicans as enemies," that line -- quote -- "Let's be clear- eyed. Over the past week, Biden got a taste of what it would be like if he ran. Media are unforgiving."

But why hit Hillary? What do you think the strategy was there?

DAOU: I'm not really sure. Look, it was disappointing that he did. As an advocate for Secretary Clinton, you know, you hit back and that's politics.

I have moved past that. His decision changed all that. It was really about the decision that he was going to make. What was in his mind saying what he said? It's very hard to tell.

BALDWIN: But the discussion of how many miles he's traveled around the world over Hillary Clinton, his stance in being with the president with regard to the call on bin Laden.

DAOU: Perhaps he was still considering running and that's -- in a campaign, you take shots at your opponent. And he has a right to do so.

[15:10:01]

And, of course, as advocates for her, we have the right to not be happy about it. But, again, it really -- in the long run, the question for him was not whether he makes a comment today that will disappear after a couple of news cycles, but in the long term, as a human being with a legacy and who's done such great work and is so respected, he did the right thing for himself and his family.

BALDWIN: Do you think though, Harry -- and then I will move off this -- do you think that we have just seen just the craftings of a Republican attack ad as a result of all of these lines from the vice president?

ENTEN: Sure.

I mean, Republicans desperately wanted Biden to run. There was a reason why every single time there was some announcement, I would get some e-mail in my box from the RNC. So, of course. But they have plenty of fodder to work with. There are a lot of smart people working on both sides of the political aisle. They will figure something out.

BALDWIN: OK. Harry and Peter, thank you so much. Appreciate both of you.

(CROSSTALK)

BALDWIN: Next here, the Paul Ryan ultimatum. The man who is being pressured to replace John Boehner as speaker of the House has this list of demands if he will take on this top job, a job that really not a lot of people want. Among them, he will not compromise his family time. Is he asking for too much? And can he unite a fractured Republican Party?

Also, not a single drop of alcohol. Have you heard this today? Advice from a group of doctors to expecting mothers, shaking up the debate about drinking while pregnant. We have that.

And the future has arrived, October 21, 2015.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, "BACK TO THE FUTURE II")

MICHAEL J. FOX, ACTOR: Where are we? When are we?

CHRISTOPHER LLOYD, ACTOR: We're descending toward Hill Valley, California, on Wednesday, October 21, 2015.

FOX: 2015?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: Welcome to Back to the Future Day. A special guest from the movie will join me here on set. Don't miss it.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[15:15:56]

BALDWIN: You're watching CNN. I'm Brooke Baldwin.

After weeks of pressure from Republican House members, including the speaker, John Boehner, himself, Congressman Paul Ryan says he is willing to become the next House speaker. There's a but. There are a couple of conditions. Here they are, number one, support of three factions within House Republicans, including the Freedom Caucus, whose members are blamed for the current Republican Party leadership vacuum, number two, a rules change to make it more difficult to overthrow a sitting speaker, and perhaps most surprising, this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP);

REP. PAUL RYAN (R), WISCONSIN: The last point is personal. I cannot and I will not give up my family time. I may not be on the road as often as previous speakers. But I pledge to try and make up for it with more time communicating our vision, our message.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: Joining me now, our CNN chief political correspondent, Dana Bash.

Let's walk through some of the feasibility of some of these demands and the support from all three factions. I know the Freedom Caucus is meeting with him, what, in 45 minutes. Talk to me about that.

(CROSSTALK)

DANA BASH, CNN SENIOR CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: That's right.

And it seems as though -- I just came from Capitol Hill talking to several members of that so-called Freedom Caucus. And this is about 40 members of the Republican House Caucus who -- these are the people who effectively forced John Boehner out. So what Paul Ryan wants to do, one of the demands he's making is to change the House rules to make it difficult, much more difficult, for a group like this or any group to force any speaker out.

And the reason, he actually told them, I am told, the Republican Caucus last night in a private meeting, is because he doesn't want to be the third log in their fire, meaning they pushed out John Boehner, they made it impossible for Kevin McCarthy to get the job, so he had to drop out. He doesn't want to be in the same position. If he wants -- if people want him to take the job, he has to be taking it in a way that he could actually do it effectively.

That's why he doesn't want that threat looming over him. A lot of people in that Freedom Caucus are saying, no, we're not going to change the rules. They have been in place since Thomas Jefferson.

BALDWIN: But some are also saying it's brilliant strategy.

BASH: Exactly.

BALDWIN: He's walking into this saying, look, I will only do this, but only for X, Y and Z. If not, you lose.

BASH: Exactly.

This is the sort of thing we always have to keep in mind here. Paul Ryan does not want this job. He has made it abundantly clear he is doing this incredibly reluctantly. He is in the job he wants, which is Ways and Means chairman, which means he is in charge of writing the tax laws of this country. That's what he's always wanted. He's a policy wonk.

But everybody from Mitt Romney to John Boehner to you name them in the Republican establishment has said, you're the only guy who can do it, please do it, which is why he has the leverage to put these conditions on. He's not begging for it. They're begging him.

BALDWIN: OK. Dana Bash, stay with me, as not only one of my favorite people in D.C. for CNN, but as a working mother, I want you to play in this next conversation because it's an important one.

I want to get to the third ultimatum here with regard to Congressman Paul Ryan.

So, let me with that bring in Andrew Shue, because he the co-founder of CafeMedia, this hugely popular online community for parents. And I have to say this as well. Of course, you recognize him from his role as Billy Campbell on "Melrose Place."

How often do you still get that these days?

ANDREW SHUE, CO-FOUNDER, CAFEMEDIA: A fair amount.

BALDWIN: Fair amount. OK, so there you go.

Beginning with, you have been for years such a champion of work/life balance. Between you and your lovely wife, Amy, you have five kids.

SHUE: Yes.

BALDWIN: You're such an advocate for that sort of balance. But for certain jobs, it doesn't always apply.

SHUE: This is a job that's all in. If you look at the approval rating of Congress, if you don't have a leader who can bring their party together, then hopefully maybe bring the country together, and you're not there every second doing the job that's necessary, I feel like it's a disservice to his kids. It's a great thing that he actually said that family matters.

BALDWIN: How often do you really hear that, especially from a male politician?

SHUE: Yes, from a guy, it's a great thing to hear.

But I'm not so sure when says, my kids would say, you didn't step up, dad, you need to do this, I actually think your kids would say, dad, you know what? Things might not get done in Washington. We need you here. I think he actually should put his kids first.

[15:20:10]

He decided to run for V.P. and maybe two years later he's realizing, you know what? My family means more.

BALDWIN: Dana, tell me, just straight up, how demanding is this job as speaker of the House? How often in sort of a dream, a vision for him would he like to be home? And how realistic is that?

BASH: Well, how often would he like to be home is probably about how often he gets home now, which is pretty much every weekend. He lives in Janesville, Wisconsin. That's his district. That's his home. That's where his kids still live. The days of members of Congress for the most part bringing their kids to Washington are kind of over.

He wants his kids to grow up in his hometown. They are relatively young. I believe at this point they're 10, 11 and 13. And the other thing is that he's somebody who lost his father at a young age, so family is incredibly important. It's personal to him. But I think this is sort of a commentary on family as much as it is on our political system, because, to answer the other part of your question, Brooke, being House speaker means traveling a lot because they are expected to raise a ton of campaign cash for their colleagues.

That is what he's talking about, not being out on the weekends. That's pretty much what he's talking about. It's not so much doing the job. It's doing the side job, which is raising money.

BALDWIN: So then, Andrew, with the push/pull, and I'm sure you have dealt with this, I'm sure your wife deals with this, how do you prioritize and does that evolve as you, I don't now, age?

SHUE: You do the best you can. And it's true. When your kids are at a certain age, it's crucial. My dad actually moved back. My mom -- my parents were divorced. My mom had to move because -- the gentleman she remarried, and he moved back into the house at a crucial time that absolutely changed my life.

If he had said, you know what, I have this big job and I have this big opportunity for my career, and he hadn't done that, we would have suffered. So there are always trade-offs, but I find it interesting that he's brought his kids into it and his family into it, but is still saying, I want the job.

BALDWIN: Well, he's saying I want the job, if you do X, Y and Z. Right?

(CROSSTALK)

SHUE: If you give me all my demands, right...

BALDWIN: Right. Then I will maybe begrudgingly take it.

But, Dana, something else I was marinating on, which is I absolutely applaud Congressman Ryan for saying family is a priority. But when could you or a woman who has kids say, I don't know if I can do this, my kids are my priority? I feel like that would not fly. Am I wrong?

BASH: It's tough. It's tough. You know, you know this. Andrew knows this. I'm a big fan of his wife who is our colleague over at ABC and "Good Morning America."

BALDWIN: "Good Morning America."

BASH: And it is tough. This morning, I wasn't there for the meeting because I had to take my son to school and I wanted to take my son to school. And I'm not the speaker of the House.

You have other -- everybody who does a job outside the home has to have this balance. But I do think it is fascinating that especially in a time where you still have the majority of the leadership in both parties as men, to have a man stand up and say this and not a woman, it's telling and I think maybe it opens the door for women to be able to do this, because I know for a fact that there are women who don't go the extra step, go for the higher job because they want to be with their family.

But they don't say that out loud because it's harder for a woman to say that.

BALDWIN: Final question then to you. Do you think it would open the door for women to have the power to say the same thing? SHUE: I think so. I think, hopefully, one day, the CEO job or the

president or the vice president can say, you know what? There's this many hours for my work and there's this many hours or my family and I'm not budging. It's a start for the conversation.

BALDWIN: Andrew Shue, thank you so much. My friend, Dana Bash, thank you as well to both of you. It's an important conversation to have. I'm glad we did it.

(CROSSTALK)

BALDWIN: Next, the Syrian president makes a surprise visit to Moscow. See this picture? This as Russian President Vladimir Putin props up his regime with a barrage of airstrikes -- details on how this could change the dynamic in the Middle East.

We will be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[15:28:18]

BALDWIN: Let's go quickly to Reno, Nevada. Jeb Bush on the campaign trail taking questions.

(JOINED IN PROGRESS)

JEB BUSH (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Let Democrats sort out their -- their primary. I'm focused on mine.

(CROSSTALK)

QUESTION: ... get your momentum going? Has it started?

BUSH: Yes, it has, very -- this is -- four years ago, Herman Cain was the front-runner, and two weeks prior to that, it was Rick Perry. Both are great guys and they didn't win the nomination.

Eight years ago, it was -- I think Rudy Giuliani up by 30 percent of the vote. And I don't think he got a delegate, even though he's a great guy, too. Four years ago, Hillary Clinton, I think, was -- eight years ago -- excuse me -- Hillary Clinton was up by 26 points over now-President Barack Obama. So...

QUESTION: How important is Nevada to you?

BUSH: February is important. New Hampshire, Iowa, Nevada, South Carolina set the stage for a huge chunk of delegates in March, and they all influence one after another.

So, we're well-organized here. I think we have the best organization in the state. And I'm proud to have great public support from people that are not just supporting my name, but they're actually involved.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Thanks, everybody.

BUSH: You will see more of me, absolutely.

QUESTION: To your question, though, what does it mean for your prospect in the general, really quick?

BUSH: I -- I'm looking forward to taking on the Democratic nominee, for sure.

I watched that debate, and what I saw was a tripling down on failed economic policies and a foreign policy that looks like the one we have today, which has created chaos in parts of the world that we need order. So, I'm excited about the prospects of winning the nomination and taking on whoever the Democratic nominee is.

(CROSSTALK)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: All right, thanks, everyone.

BUSH: This afternoon's event?

QUESTION: (INAUDIBLE)

BUSH: We have a couple events, grassroots event for the -- for the campaign.