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6.2 Magnitude Earthquake Hits Central Italy; ; North Korea Test-fires a Submarine Ballistic Missile; Survey: UK, EU Economy Defying Brexit Fear; South African Finance Minister Summoned By Police, Rand Tumbles; Ukraine Fighting To Escape Moscow's Dominance. Aired 1-2a ET
Aired August 24, 2016 - 01:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[01:00:34] ANNOUNCER: This is CNN breaking news.
ISHA SESAY, CNN ANCHOR: Hello, everyone. I'm Isha Sesay. Our breaking news this hour, a powerful earthquake rocks central Italy, collapsing buildings and trapping people in the rubble.
Our affiliate RAI reports at least four people were killed when the 6.2 magnitude quake hit the town of Norcia. But a regional police officer also reports that many people have been killed.
One local mayor told state television half the town is gone.
Let's bring in CNN contributor Barbie Nadeau, who joins us now from Italy with more details.
Barbie, what more can you tell us? What more are you learning?
BARBIE NADEAU, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: Well, right now as the sun comes up they're really able to assess the damage and just try to get into some of these outlying areas. We understand the biggest problem right now is that some roads have been compromised. All these old stone roads, maybe bridges that connect some of these villages, these hilltop villages have been compromised. That's one of the big problems.
They've also called for all the local hospitals to bring back everyone who's on vacation, all the doctors who might be on holiday. They've called for people to donate blood. They're really expecting a number of injuries and casualties from this major, major earthquake.
You know, this is a very populated area this time of year. And so many of the people that live in Rome or they come from other parts of Europe or even the United States rent holiday homes there. They're in these outlying areas. There are countless reports people who were woken from their bed at 3:30 by this very, very, very strong earthquake and an aftershock that happened about an hour later.
People who are in the town that is most affected. This mayor who you just referred to who said half his town is gone is talking -- has been talking on local media about just the rubble and the sound of collapsing stone. That seems to be something that was so devastating for people close to the area.
These old stone buildings as they collapsed, just the sound of that rubble as it was being created. And now people, you know, digging through that rubble, trying to find survivors, trying to listen for voices as emergency services make their way to that affected area, Isha
SESAY: Barbie, this affected area, Amatrice, where we've been speaking to the mayor, what can you tell us about population? I know that this is a very densely populated region. But what about this town in particular that you're referencing there? What more can you tell us about it specifically?
NADEAU: That's a town of about 2,000 people. They've got, you know, a much higher summer population. But 2,000 people, that's a small town by pretty much any standard of measure. But a fairly large town for that area, actually, because these are mostly tiny villages or just houses that are grouped together. You know, some of these houses are 200, 300 years old and people use them as summer houses. People rent them out to tourists.
You know, they don't have a lot of amenities there. They're small roads. That which attracts people to the area, the picturesque architecture, you know, the remote area, that which attracts people also becomes so deadly in an earthquake like this.
SESAY: Yes, no doubt. Are we clear on how much access emergency services have been able to gain at this point so that we can begin to say we have a full picture of the scale of the damage?
NADEAU: No, I don't think we have a full picture of the scale of the damage yet. You know, we've heard reports people calling in saying they haven't seen anyone, no fire trucks, no ambulances, things like that. These are people in smaller villages, you know, calling in to Italian media shows saying, you know, listen, we've got rubble on the ground, we haven't seen any emergency vehicles.
Part of the problem, though, is going to be access. A lot of, you know, these roads are lined with stones. A lot of these roads are connected by bridges that might be compromised. And people just can't get through. That's going to be a major problem.
We do know that civil protection authorities have had helicopters over the area. You know, there are lots of things they're going to be looking for. They're going to make sure the gas lines are shut off in some of these buildings that have been compromised so that there's not, you know, other types of emergencies that happen as a result of compromised structures.
You know, people are out in the streets. People have gone to parks, to areas that -- flat areas, clear areas, areas that there are no big buildings around like soccer stadiums, things like that. People are just finding anywhere they can to gather and stay together, you know, waiting for an aftershock. You know, there was an aftershock about half an hour ago in the area that was very strong as well. And people are terrified. People are very, very scared. You know, want to be safe. Afraid to go back in their homes. They're waiting for some help.
And really, you know, the sun is just coming up. Just before 7:00 a.m. in the morning. And, you know, we'll know I think as the day progresses just how much damage and loss of life we're dealing with here.
[01:05:07] SESAY: Yes. We will know more in the hours ahead.
Barbie Nadeau, we appreciate it. I know you're continuing to find more details for us. Barbie, do stand by for us. Thank you.
I want to bring in Elizabeta Danijelis. She joins us on the phone from Ascoli, Italy.
Elizabeta, thank you so much for being with us. First of all, tell us what you experienced when this quake struck.
ELIZABETA DANIJELIS, EARTHQUAKE SURVIVOR: It was like 3:30 a.m. and all of a sudden it just started very, very bad. So I got up and I tried to turn the lights on but the electricity went off. So I just went to the safest spot I could find around and I was there for a while and everything was just falling off all around me. So then I tried entering back to the room again to find some clothes but it would kind of continue for a while.
So basically since then there have been, like, minor shakes. Some have been stronger, some less. But it hasn't been stopping yet. So it was 3:30 and now it's 7:00 a.m., and it's kind of still shaking. Not as bad as the first ones but it's kind of scary, let's say.
SESAY: It must be terrifying that the tremors are still going on. Where are you exactly right now? Have you left the building? Are you outside? Are you in the open air?
DANIJELIS: No, the thing is that we called, let's say, the emergency to understand first of all if this -- let's say the earthquakes would keep going on for a while. But they don't know yet of course, they can't predict that. But they suggest to us to go and move the car somewhere a little bit like open air away from buildings and to sleep in the car. That was back like 4:30 a.m., something like that.
But to be honest, I didn't feel like doing that. So I'm just still in the building. It's not -- I wouldn't say it's very unsafe because the building, I mean, the worst shakes has passed, so I'm going to stay here for now.
SESAY: Elizabeta, you are in Ascoli, Italy. I don't know whether, A, you can give us some sense of how far you are from Amatrice.
DANIJELIS: Yes. Sure.
SESAY: Tell us --
DANIJELIS: Basically Ascoli Piceno is about 55 kilometers away from Amatrice. I was actually supposed to go there on Saturday because there's a festival there. So -- and yes, the other place which is another core where I think supposedly two persons died under their own house. It's 30 kilometers from here. Ascoli is kind of at the border with the region, where Amatrice is. So --
SESAY: And --
DANIJELIS: Yes.
SESAY: Elizabeta, in terms of damage to Ascoli, what are you hearing? If you've been able to get any sense of damage or any casualties where you are.
DANIJELIS: Well, I heard just my neighbors calling each other. So I guess -- I mean, nobody really was hurt over here, I think. The only problem have been with the very old buildings. So the same as Amatrice where these big rocks building. But I haven't been in the city yet. So I don't know. The only thing I know is that as soon as the sun came up I heard the helicopters running. And I guess they were leaving for Amatrice. And I also know that the hospital of Ascoli is getting ready to host all the people from there because I think we are the main hospital, closest one, together with Rieti.
And another thing I know is that we have these tiny routes that connect this side of Italy to Rome. It's called Solaria. And that's where you have to drive if you want to go like from here to Amatrice. And I guess a lot of people are driving to Amatrice now. So they're suggesting to not do that unless it's very necessary because the route is super small and it's also damaged. So of course, you know, you need to have ambulances going there, not just curious people.
SESAY: Well, Elizabeta, we are so pleased that you are safe, you and your loved ones, and that you could share your experiences with us.
[01:10:01] Do stay safe. And thank you again for joining us here on CNN. Our thoughts and prayers are of course with all those in the affected quake zone.
Elizabeta, thank you so much.
Well, Facebook has activated its safety check feature for the quake. The program helps people in and outside disaster zones contact each other.
Meteorologist Pedram Javaheri has more on what's happening there in Italy, and he joins us now with more.
And Pedram, just before we came to you we were showing our viewers pictures of the damage there in the quake zone. It is quite staggering. And that was the expectation with a quake like this of 6.2 in magnitude.
PEDRAM JAVAHERI, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Yes, unfortunately, it was. And you know, Isha, something that I'm noticing in the last few minutes, when you look at the historic quakes in the last couple of years across this region, and we've actually plotted them for you, the 1997 Umbria quake which was a 6.0, that particular quake was also 10 kilometers in depth but it only took 11 lives. It is very sparsely populated across the northern reaches of this region.
The southern reaches, of course, L'Aquila quake, we know that 6.3 quake also 10 kilometers deep. That particular one took with it almost 300 lives. And something worth noting with that particular quake, that occurred at 1:30 -- 3:32 in the morning local time. Of course we know the most recent quake here in the last several hours occurred at 3:36 in the morning local time, almost identical times, identical depths, and their magnitude is .1 magnitude difference. So incredible similarities with these quakes. And you see how they're all lined up kind of from north to south with the most recent quake being in the middle between the two largest recent quakes that were in place across this region.
So the potential, we can gauge by the population in the L'Aquila region which was very similar. Tens of thousands of people across -- in close proximity to the epicenter. So that's how we can gauge what occurred. But when you think about earthquakes and especially earthquakes of this magnitude, you look at the population impact. We know about 20 million people at least felt some shaking with almost 13 million of them feeling moderate shaking. A large number of them even as much as 100 kilometers away in Rome.
And with quakes of this magnitude, especially when they're very shallow, there is a significant energy transfer that takes place. And the best way I could put it is if you're ever in a vehicular accident and you're hit by a vehicle coming at high speeds that energy from that vehicle that is coming towards you will be transferred directly into your vehicle. And precisely what's happening here when there is very little buffer beneath the surface, all that energy, the shaking that's taking place is coming directly to the top and right beneath your feet.
So if it's shallow you're going to feel all of it. And there's a complex conversion that takes place between how much shaking is felt, and you look at a 6.2, the energy transfer is equivalent to over 60 million sticks of dynamite being detonated at the same time. That's how much energy it takes to rupture the ground beneath you. And of course that energy is distributed somewhere. And if people are close by they'll be the one taking the brunt of it. And unfortunately, this is what we think happened across this region of Italy.
So you take a look, there are about 1.5 million quakes on our planet. Most of them go unfelt and unnoticed. But a little over 100 of them fall into the magnitude 6.0 to 6.9. So here's what we have for the most recent quake, again, happening at 3:36 in the morning. And with quakes we often have to think about when they happen, what's the structural vulnerability across this region. We know it's very vulnerable because of the historic nature of the structures here. And of course what were people doing when the quake occurred, which more than likely was they were sleeping.
So it is a worst case scenario of the vulnerability, the time of day, and also the structures that folks were surrounded by when this occurred. So this is why the USGS has an estimated potential economic impact well over a billion dollars. That's at least the highest probability in the red area highlighted there, at 35 percent. And based on previous earthquakes in this region with a similar magnitude, which again we use the L'Aquila quake, which they have as well, when it comes to this they've given the highest probability of fatalities ranging from 100 to 1,000 people. So the significance of this, again, could be very, very large based on what we've seen happen here before, Isha.
SESAY: Yes. Pedram, we appreciate the update -- appreciate the insight. Thank you so much.
With that now let's bring in an eyewitness, Eleanora Ramandini. She's about 20 kilometers away from the quake.
Eleanora, thank you so much for joining us. So close to the actual epicenter of this quake. What did you experience when it struck at 3:36 a.m. local time?
ELEANORA RAMANDINI, WITNESS: Hello. I experienced the waking up, the worst waking up ever. And we woke up with these earthquakes which was very, very strong. The beds were moving. And we woke up with people screaming because they were asking for help. But no damages. Luckily, there was no damages in my area. 20 kilometers away in Aracaqua de Tronto there are a lot of damages we heard from the news. And we were waiting for some news to come on the TV to decide to go down from the building or to stay at home.
[01:15:10] And we are in a very high -- we heard it and we felt it very well. And we heard also aftershocks and they were strong. So we didn't know what to do. So we decided to go down after the third aftershock. And maybe there are also earthquake (INAUDIBLE), I can't define them. And it was very shocking. We are waiting in the streets with all the buildings. And we were very scared. And we saw the building shaking through also with the aftershocks. Then we heard when we sat down with her the earthquakes also coming one after another. And yes, it was very scary. We heard the news that's on social media and friends calling, how are you and everything. It was very, very shocking.
SESAY: Yes. It must have been absolutely terrifying. Just hearing you describe it is very, very frightening. You made it outside safely. How much damage is there to the town that you are in?
RAMANDINI: Yes.
SESAY: What have you been seeing? What have people been saying?
RAMANDINI: I've been seeing like we saw the sea coming on the beach. Also overpassing the umbrellas and on the sand. So we just saw that and the building shaking. So we mostly heard and felt the earthquake, then we saw damages. So we know a lot of people are under collapsed buildings. So it is a very terrifying situation. So we also heard about mayors of the cities like Amatrice who were crying on the phone asking for help because the town was completely gone and like the town does not exist anymore. So that's it.
SESAY: Yes. An incredible tragedy. We're hearing that the roads in the area are very small, that they're made of stone. So, you know, there's concern that some of the roads, you know, it's going to be difficult to get through them, that they may be blocked. What can you tell us about the condition of the roads where you are?
RAMANDINI: We saw a lot of cars going through the night and the morning. And a lot of people were going to the center but I don't think they got anywhere because a lot of roads were closed because the earthquakes were going through. And it was -- take a place and stay there. Also a lot of cars which were going to the center stopped because the car was shaking also with the aftershocks. And they start like screaming and were like, no, no, we can't go anymore. And a lot of people tried to go out of the -- usually this is a safe place. We heard it very well.
SESAY: Eleanora Ramandini, thank you again for joining us and just sharing a little bit of what you went through.
RAMANDINI: Thank you.
SESAY: It sounds very, very terrifying. Do stay safe at this very difficult time. Thank you for speaking to us here at CNN.
We're going to have much more on the breaking news of a 6.2 magnitude earthquake in Italy when we return. Do stay with us for all the latest details.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[01:22:15] SESAY: Hello, everyone. I'm Isha Sesay. I want to update you now on the breaking news. The news of that magnitude 6.2 earthquake that struck central Italy in the last few hours. Our affiliate RAI reports at least four people were killed when the quake struck near the town of Norcia. People felt the tremors as far away as Rome.
The U.S. embassy in Italy is urging Americans to check in via social media and let family and friends know they are safe. And Facebook activated its safety check feature so people can do that.
The USGS says lots of aftershocks are expected for the next several hours or even days.
Well, Angela Giuffrida joins me now from Rome. She's a journalist with the English news Web site the "Local Italy."
Angela, thanks so much for being with us.
ANGELA GIUFFRIDA, JOURNALIST, "THE LOCAL ITALY": Hi.
SESAY: As we know this quake was felt -- hi. We know it was felt all the way in Rome. Tell us what you're hearing about the situation in the quake zone right now.
GIUFFRIDA: We're hearing that four people are confirmed dead but there were many others trapped beneath rubble under collapsed buildings in several small towns in the Umbria region, much of the region in central Italy which was where the epicenter of the earthquake was, as well as Lazio.
We felt very severe aftershocks here -- sorry -- in Rome at about -- just after 3:30 this morning. There was a lot of panic in Rome, too. And you know, people fled the buildings and were waiting on the street outside.
SESAY: A terrifying time, you know, for people in Rome and those that were closer to the epicenter itself and in the epicenter of course. What are you hearing about -- go ahead. Sorry.
GIUFFRIDA: No, it's because I think for a lot of people who were here in Rome in 2009 and the same kind of tremors were felt because of the L'Aquila earthquake, which was Italy's last deadliest earthquake, over 300 people died. So of course there's lots of panic and concern here in the nearby regions and obviously concerned about the people in the regions closer to the earthquake.
SESAY: What are you learning about the emergency response?
GIUFFRIDA: The emergency -- they've been, you know, from what I can gather, because some of the towns, or the main towns affected are small towns in hilly areas, I hear that the town of Amatrice and Rome and the access road's been blocked, which has made it difficult straight after the quake for the emergency services to reach the town. But from what I can see and from the reports coming in now, emergency services are on the grounds in the areas worst affected.
[01:25:08] SESAY: All right. So you're hearing that the emergency services are already on the scene in those areas worst affected.
(CROSSTALK)
GIUFFRIDA: From photographic evidence that I'm seeing, yes. Yes. News Wires, they're issuing images now from some of the towns.
SESAY: OK. What do you know about the level of resources in the area? I'm thinking mainly in terms of hospitals to deal with casualties from this quake.
GIUFFRIDA: I can't really answer that question. But from what I -- not being there, but from what I know, it seems to me that these -- you know, it's very early to say. We've had four confirmed deaths. There are still people trapped under the rubble. And rescue services seem to be on the ground. I'm sure that the health services, you know, are fully equipped to deal with this.
SESAY: All right. Angela Giuffrida, thank you so much for joining us on the line from Rome and just bringing us up to date with the very latest that you're hearing from the quake zone. Thank you so much.
GIUFFRIDA: All right. Thank you very much. Bye-bye.
SESAY: Well, we will of course continue to follow the situation there in Italy in that quake zone, but for now we want to turn to a situation in North Korea. North Korea has test-fired a submarine-based ballistic missile and the
South says it shows improved compared to previous tests. It's the latest in a series of missile launches raising concerns in the South.
Will Ripley joins us now from Seoul with more.
So, Will, according to South Korean officials this missile launch shows some improvement in North Korea's technological capabilities. What are we learning about the launch?
WILL RIPLEY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, remember those pictures that we saw, the dramatic video of that missile launch back in April from a submarine in North Korea touted as a huge success. That missile traveled, excuse me, 30 kilometers, Isha, compared to 500 kilometers the missile that was launched before dawn local time here this morning. So 16 times further it traveled. Almost 300 miles or so according to the U.S., South Korean, and Japanese forces that were tracking all of this.
Of course there's the strong condemnation that we always get when North Korea launches something like this. But this is a particular concern because a submarine-launched ballistic missile if North Korea is able to get a missile that not only can go the distance but also accurately hit a target, this greatly expands their ability to strike not only targets here in South Korea but also U.S. military assets throughout Asia-Pacific. Even potentially getting a submarine right up next to the U.S. mainland and launching a missile from there.
So that along with these mobile launchers and the intercontinental ballistic missile with a miniature nuclear warhead are near the top of North Korean Kim Jong-un's most wanted weapons list and it seems as if they have gotten at least one step closer with this test, which by the way is happening as the U.S.-South Korean annual military drills are under way. They started on Monday.
It's always infuriating for the North Korean regime when you have U.S. and South Korean troops displaying their might in this region. And this appears to be a show of force from North Korea. They even talked about a nuclear strike if there's any provocation from these nuclear -- from these exercises. So always watching for, you know, another potential North Korean nuclear test and more missile launches as well, Isha.
SESAY: Tensions remain high. Will Ripley, joining us there from Seoul, South Korea. Will, appreciate it. Thank you.
And we'll be back with our continuing breaking news coverage of the earthquake in Italy after a very quick break. Do stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[01:31:29] ANNOUNCER: This is CNN breaking news.
SESAY: Hello, everyone. Let's update you on the breaking news out of Italy. Here's what we know at the moment. We know that that 6.2 magnitude earthquake struck Central Italy at around 3:36 a.m. and it hit near the town of Norcia. Our affiliate Rai reports at least four people were killed. Facebook safety check is now active for people to try to contact each other.
Working to build a picture of what was happening as that quake struck, let's bring in Charlotte Smith. She's a women's basketball coach from a university in the United States and is in Rome right now with her team. Charlotte, thank you so much for joining us. Tell us what you experienced when this quake struck.
CHARLOTTE SMITH, BASKETBALL COACH (via telephone): Yes, I was awake at the time, probably around 3:30 or so, and the entire hotel here in Rome was shaking. Initially I wasn't very sure of what was going on, but then I heard a commotion in the hallway, and I went to look out, and one of the families was saying that there was an earthquake. And so we headed downstairs, got dressed and headed downstairs to the lobby. But there was not a lot of chaos in the hotel because I assume a lot of people were still asleep. But you know, all is well and there's no damage here in this region.
SESAY: Yes. And tell me, I mean, what was it like those minutes as obviously it became clear to you it was an earthquake and obviously you're there with a team trying to get everyone together and trying to get out. Just walk us through what those moments were like for you.
SMITH (via telephone): Yes. There was not a lot of chaos going on in the hotel. When I went downstairs to the lobby to speak with the people at the front desk, they assured us that there was no damage in this area and that everything was OK. So I didn't feel the need to try to wake up everybody and bring them down to the lobby level.
SESAY: And so once you went down and you spoke to the front desk, what did you do next?
SMITH (via telephone): I just stayed down in the lobby area and talked to a couple of my friends back in the states in regards to earthquakes because I have some friends that have experienced it and they said that, you know, expect aftershocks but don't be alarmed. And probably about 30 minutes after the initial earthquake, there was an aftershock in the lobby.
SESAY: I mean, that must have been terribly frightening.
SMITH (via telephone): Yes, initially it was pretty frightening because I didn't know what was going on. But after a while I was poised and composed and didn't feel as fearful from the initial shock.
SESAY: And what can you tell us about the situation in and around your hotel right now? Are people still out in the streets? What are you hearing, what are you seeing around you?
SMITH (via telephone): In this particular region, there's a lot of calm. Even when the initial earthquake struck, there were not a lot of people in the hotel lobby. There was just one family with their daughters and they were pretty panicked, but other than that, there were not a lot of people out and about in the area.
SESAY: All right. And you and the team, how much longer are you planning on being in Italy?
SMITH (via telephone): We're actually on a bus now headed to the airport. Our flight leaves out around 11:00. So we're headed back to the states today.
SESAY: All right. Well, Charlotte, we're pleased you're safe. You and the team travel back safely. And thanks so much for joining us. Very much appreciate it.
SMITH (via telephone): Thank you.
[01:35:12] SESAY: Let's go to CNN contributor, Barbie Nadeau, who joins us now en route to the quake zone. Barbie, I know you're trying to make your way to the worst-affected areas. Tell us what you know.
BARBIE NADEAU, CNN CONTRIBUTOR (via telephone): Well, we're heading to Amatrice, which is the epicenter of the earthquake. We understand the roads might be closed there. We're going to get as close as we can, obviously. But just report after report at first light shows devastating damage from this very strong earthquake. You know, it affected so many of these small little hilltop towns that are so characteristic by their stone houses and ancient churches and bell towers and things like that. All of those things we're seeing initial pictures, many, many of those buildings have collapsed.
There are people, we understand, trapped under rubble. They're trying to get as many emergency services people in place as possible. Local hospitals have called all of their doctors who've been on vacation and holiday back in. They've called for blood donations. Just trying to get as many people as possible ready to start accepting any injured people that maybe they're expecting to have some fairly major injuries and even fatalities based on just the extensive damage.
One of the problems though right now is it's very hard to reach this area because so many of the roads have been closed and compromised by falling stone, falling buildings, bridges that connect these hilltop towns have been compromised as well. So it's going to be a real struggle for the authorities to get into place, and it's going to be a real struggle just to make sure everybody's accountable for, because a lot of these houses and villages are populated just seasonally, and this is the summertime. So people assume everybody's in their summer house. Nobody knows, has somebody gone back to Rome? Have they gone back to their house in the city? So that's going to be one of the things that people -- that's one of the reasons that Facebook has had the check in safe feature activated, so that people can just figure out where everyone is to make sure who's missing. That's obviously a priority. And civil protection authorities are in place. Everybody's ready. And you know, to help the people they can find, hopefully it's going to be a matter of helping people out of the rubble instead of just taking bodies out.
SESAY: Yes, that is very much the hope. A major test here for Matteo Renzi, the Italian prime minister. At this stage, what are we hearing from Rome from the prime minister's office?
NADEAU (via telephone): Well, at 4:00 a.m. this morning or even before, the prime minister activated the national civil protection authority. That makes it basically akin to what we call in the United States a national disaster area. That just frees up any sort of funding that's necessary, frees up all the sources possible to help when it comes to helicopters, when it comes to emergency vehicles, when it comes to fire brigades, when it comes to even some of the volunteer services that go immediately into effect in situations like this.
This earthquake took place in an area that is not -- that is actually very prone to seismic activity. There are tremors there all of the time, if you talk to local citizens there. But this is a very strong earthquake and that's what makes it such an anomaly and that's what makes it just so worrying for the people who haven't been heard from.
I talked to someone I know who's in Abruzzo (ph), for example, who's been sitting out since 3:30 this morning with all the people of the village in an open area. Abruzzo, l'Aquila area, which of course was affected in 2009 by a devastating earthquake. Those people remember very clearly what the situation's going to be like. And of course, you know one of the big concerns is whether or not anyone paid attention to the lessons that were learned after l'Aquila.
So many of those buildings in that area were compromised because they hadn't put into effect anti-seismic reinforcement, and they called to put in these reinforcements. We'll see if people took heed and if they did the necessary reinforcing that was called upon by the national authorities for some of these buildings. Any building over 100 years old was supposed to have a number of new measures, safety measures put in place. Now we're going to see, it's being put to the test. We're going to see if anybody paid attention.
SESAY: Yes, it is indeed the question that everyone will want answered, and we shall see as we get more access to the affected areas. Barbie Nadeau en route to the quake zone, to the epicenter, Amatrice. Barbie, stay safe. Thank you so much for joining us. We will of course check in with you again shortly, so thank you so much for that.
Let's bring in meteorologist Pedram Javaheri who joins us now with more. Pedram, as we look at these pictures, as we share them with our viewers, the damage is staggering. There is so much work for first responders to do here.
PEDRAM JAVAHERI, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Yes, absolutely. When you think about at least some of the positive aspects coming out of this that we haven't actually touched on yet, Isha, I want to show you what's going on weather-wise across this region. Because very much cloud-free, not just for parts of Italy but almost all of the continental area of Europe here. Much of Western Europe at least underneath a significant area of high pressure.
[01:39:56] You take a look, weather pattern actually going to warm up over the next couple of days from the mid to upper 20s. So as mild, as warm as it gets, at least going to help with some of the recovery efforts across this region. But you think about how many people were impacted and the estimated population that felt this earthquake at 3:36 in the morning, it was somewhere right around 20 million people. Now, you go in for a close look here. We have had seven aftershocks since the initial shock there coming it in at 3:30 in the morning. If you notice, we've had about half of them to the north, half just to the south of the epicenter. But the question is where, are these located?
Here's the epicenter itself. Side of a mountain, Notoria (ph), one of those very small communities isolated from much of this region, is going to be one of the ones that would be ground zero for the intense shaking associated with this quake. Again, there's the epicenter. Notice Frascaro, just to the south, and then Norcia, of course sitting there right there slightly south of that region. Several thousand people living across this region. Norcia as being one of the populations, I should say, with several thousand people exposed to this.
And then giving you another viewpoint of the epicenter and going south to Amatrice across this region, that's about 14 kilometers away. So the intense shaking felt here near the epicenter would be felt certainly 14 kilometers away in a city there with several thousand people. So this is one of the main concerns across this region, that many smaller communities, but all of them at least 1,000 to 3,000 people living in. So this would be a very dangerous scenario, and you see the color contours associated with the strong to very strong shaking associated with this quake, and it actually expands quite a bit out of the epicenter region. So Rome would get some of the moderate shaking, about 2.5 million people feeling it in Rome with a moderate intensity shaking across this region.
And we have an update to what the USGS has now recalculated when it comes to estimated fatalities, and I can tell you, this is one piece of good news when you look into this. So initially, the highest likelihood of fatalities was somewhere between 100 to 1,000 people. Now they have given almost an identical likelihood for it to be between 10 to 100 people. So this is one of the first signs we're seeing that USGS seismologists across this region are calculating this and thinking that potentially the damage and the fatalities could be slightly less than initially estimated. That is wonderful news if that plays out with reducing the potential of what could have occurred with this quake once everything is accounted for.
But still seeing the economic toll would be north of $1 billion, 1 billion U.S. dollars. So that's something worth noting across that region. But again, there is the 6.2, just 10 kilometers deep.
And that's really interesting when you look at recent quakes, Isha. The 1997 quake across this area took 11 lives with it. That was a 6.0. But the 2009 l'Aquila quake, 6.3, actually occurred at 3:32 in the morning versus the most recent quake just four minutes later, 3:36 in the morning. That's identical. Magnitudes almost identical. So a very, very eerily similar quake that took place there in the last couple of hours.
SESAY: YEs. Very frightening indeed. Pedram, appreciate it. We'll check back with you shortly. Thank you. We're going to take a quick break now. We're following this breaking news from Italy, and we'll have many more details after the break. You're watching CNN.
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RICHARD QUEST, CNN ANCHOR: I'm Richard Quest and these are the top business headlines. New figures show the European economy remains robust even after the Brexit vote. In the U.K., export orders at a two-year high. Eurozone company orders rose in July.
Slovakia is due to host a meeting to discuss the terms of Britain's exit. Speaking to me on "QUEST MEANS BUSINESS", the foreign minister said the U.K. needs time to get its affairs in order before it invokes the leaving article.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MIROSLAV LAJCAK, MINISTER OF FOREIGN AND EUROPEAN AFFAIRS, SLOVAKIA: Not too late, because this is a situation where we are in an uncertain. We have the outcome of the vote, but we still have the legal status quo. So I believe U.K. needs to take time to get ready but it should not drag on for too long, because people need to know.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
QUEST: South African rand tumbled following reports that the country's finance minister had been summoned by police. The rand fell three (ph) percent on concerns over a rift between the Minister Pravin Gordhan and President Jacob Zuma.
Economists have ranked Donald Trump as their third choice when asked which candidate for president would be the best at managing the U.S. economy. It was a survey from the National Association for Business Economics. It showed 55 percent would choose Hillary Clinton. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson came in second with 15 percent.
[01:45:02] You're up to date. Those are the business headlines. I'm Richard Quest in New York.
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SESAY: Hello, everyone. Back to our top story. A magnitude 6.2 earthquake has struck Central Italy. The quake hit about 10 kilometers south of Norcia. That's about 170 kilometers northwest of Rome. An aftershock of magnitude 5.5 followed. One local mayor told state television that half his town is gone. Our affiliate, Rai, reports that six people have been killed. Facebook has activated its safety check. The program lets people in and out of disaster zones connect with each other. We'll have much more on the Italy quake in just a moment.
But turning our attention now to Ukraine, which is marking 25 years since it gained independence from the Soviet Union. These are celebrations from 25 years ago. Kiev is parading 4,000 of its soldiers and 200 pieces of military hardware Wednesday in a show of the country's military power.
But even after a quarter century, Ukrainian soldiers say they're still fighting to escape Moscow's dominance. Tensions between the countries have risen in recent weeks. Our Phil Black got an up close and personal insight into the front line of Europe's forgotten war. He joins us now from Kharkiv in Eastern Ukraine. And Phil, this is a cease-fire in name only.
PHIL BLACK, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Indeed. That's right, Isha. What we saw very clearly is the language often used to describe this conflict simply doesn't do it justice. It's been 18 months since something called the Minsk Agreement came into existence. This was supposed to be a cease-fire, a path to peace. And since then we've heard a lot about cease-fire agreements. Both sides continuously accusing the other of breaching the terms of the Minsk Agreement.
What that means on the ground, we're not just talking skirmishes or a stray round or shell. In reality, it is daily sustained and increasingly intense violence. This is very much an active war.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BLACK: Through this gate is one front line of a war still ravaging a country and destroying lives, a year and a half after all sides promised a cease-fire. We're with Ukrainian soldiers near Avdiivka in the country's east as they try to hold a position against pro-Russian forces.
That's incoming fire slamming into the walls of this shed. The people here say that this is what it's like every single day. They're not just lobbing stuff at each other. They're trying to move forward and take each other's territory.
Captain Andre Skurubski (ph) tells us we must now run.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Quickly, quickly, quickly.
BLACK: This short dash for cover draws fire. We shelter in the remains of another devastated building. The source of the incoming fire is very close.
So your enemy is out that way?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes. That way, 100 meters.
BLACK: 100 meters away?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes, yes.
The pause in the shooting allows us to move forward. We cross more open ground between old buildings. This industrial site is a fiercely contested prize. The Ukrainian forces say they've lost ten men here in the last month, and there are casualties every day. Captain Skurubski (ph) wants to show us one of the positions they're being attacked from.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Just there.
BLACK: A tall tower-like building so close we could stroll there in less than a minute.
We're being pulled out.
At that moment, the fighting picks up. There's incoming fire from several directions.
[01:50:09] There is now fighting during the day every day, soldiers here say. But more than that, it's in the evening. 4:00, like clockwork, this begins. It really kicks off.
Why is this position, this territory so important?
He says the enemy has already moved beyond the line of control set in the peace deal known as the Minsk Agreement. He says that if the pro- Russian forces move forward from here, they could keep going and take any city in Ukraine.
From relative safety, we listen to the noise of war. Until it gets too close. Mortars land just outside.
They've punched through this building before.
We should go now? OK. Ready? We're good? Chris, you good?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes. Let's go, let's go, let's go.
BLACK: Bullets whistle around our team during the final run to safety. This is what a cease-fire looks like in Eastern Ukraine.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BLACK: Now that Minsk Agreement, Isha, said that there's supposed to be a total cease-fire, that heavy weapons were supposed to be pulled back on both sides to set distances. There was supposed to be constitutional reform that would allow those breakaway regions in the East, if you like, to have their own autonomy, but remain within Ukraine. And crucially, the border between Ukraine and Russia in this region was supposed to again come under the control of the Ukrainian national government.
Now here we are 18 months later and none of that has happened. Instead, in recent weeks, what we've seen is creased fighting and that means increased casualties as well, especially among civilians.
Increased military maneuverings by both Ukrainians and Russian forces, and increased rhetoric. That's really spiked in recent weeks, which has led some analysts to believe that wide-scale military conflict now looks very likely here once again. You mention that today is independence day. 25 years ago, Ukraine broke away from the Soviet Union. In recent years, this celebration for Ukraine has marked a real spike, a real intense -- more intense fighting on the front lines in the East, and today, the Ukrainian government says that kicked off really straight from midnight. They saw wide-scale fighting explode across the front line as soon as this national celebration day began. Isha --
SESAY: Very, very tense times. Phil Black joining us there from Kharkiv. Phil, appreciate it, thank you.
All right. Well, back to our breaking news coverage of the deadly earthquake in Central Italy. Let's bring in retired journalist, Wolf Achtner (ph). He's in Orte, Italy, about 95 kilometers away from the earthquake epicenter. Wolf, thank you for being with us. Tell us what you experienced when this quake struck.
WOLF ACHTNER, RETIRED JOURNALIST (via telephone): Good morning, Isha. This earthquake was something that I felt very strongly, and I can compare it to the previous one in l'Aquila in 2009. In fact, I happened to be sitting at my computer, and all of the sudden my house started shaking very strongly. But what was really different this time was, it almost seemed as though someone had picked up my armchair and was trying to throw me out of the chair, so strong was the quake. And in fact, I immediately felt -- I was sure it was an earthquake, but I also ran to my window to see, and this time everybody in the neighborhood was out in the streets.
SESAY: What is the situation in your neighborhood when it comes to damage, when it comes to injuries? What can you tell us about that?
ACHTNER (via telephone): Absolutely nothing, Isha, here, luckily no damage. But a lot of people seemed scared in the beginning because, of course, an earthquake is something that is unusual but also Italian people who live in this area have seen the damage that has happened in areas not too far away from here several times in the past. In fact, myself, the other time when the earthquake happened, shortly after, as soon as it was clear where the epicenter was, I got in my car and drove towards l'Aquila because I'm a journalist and I went to cover that story. And that time there were some 300 people dead and the old town of l'Aquila was very severely damaged.
[01:55:03] This time, the quake seemed so strong, I was sure that it was either closer or something special, because it felt very strong. And in fact, it's closer than the other one. And indeed the earthquake apparently was very shallow, which is probably why it seemed so strong to me. Isha --
SESAY: And Wolf, very briefly, what are you hearing about the emergency response, especially in a place like Amatrice?
ACHTNER (via telephone): What is different this time from the last time is that in this short span of time, social media have become very important. And indeed, a few seconds after, or a few minutes after, there was already news coming out on Twitter and people were communicating on Facebook. And in fact, I myself was able to find out just a couple minutes later --
SESAY: Wolf --
ACHTNER (via telephone): Yes?
SESAY: Sadly, we are out of time. I'm sorry to cut you off, but we appreciate you joining us to bring us the very latest. Thank you so much for speaking to us on the line from Orte. We are going to have much more on the breaking news of the situation out of Central Italy. Stay with CNN. We'll be back after a break.
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