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Saudi Arabia Denies Responsibility for Attack on Iranian Oil Tanker; U.K. Government to Lay Out Agenda in Coming Hours; Kurds Say, Deal Reached For Syrian Government To Send Troops; Ecuador Government Reaches Deal Ending Violent Protests; Key Witness To Testify In Trump Impeachment Inquiry. Aired 12-1a ET

Aired October 14, 2019 - 00:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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MICHAEL HOLMES, CNN NEWSROOM: Hello, everyone, and welcome to our viewers joining us from all around the world. I'm Michael Holmes.

NATALIE ALLEN, CNN NEWSROOM: And I'm Natalie Allen.

Coming up next here on CNN Newsroom, after weeks of deadly protests, the government in Ecuador is giving to demonstrators' demands. We have a live update on this breaking story.

HOLMES: The Kurds say they have struck a deal with a Syrian government to resist Turkey after the Trump administration announced it will pull all remaining U.S. troops from Northern Syria.

ALLEN: And a pivotal week for Brexit as the U.K.'s divorce from the E.U. comes down to the wire. And in a few hours, the queen steps into the fray by marking the state opening of parliament.

HOLMES: Desperate and feeling deserted by the U.S., Syrian Kurds are turning to the government of President Bashar al-Assad for help.

ALLEN: The Kurds say a deal has been reached for Syrian army units to be deployed on the northern border. It's meant to counter the offensive launched by Turkey after U.S. troops were ordered to pull back from the region.

HOLMES: Turkey now says it will push even deeper into Syrian territory and the U.S. looks set to pull its remaining forces out of Northern Syria. Here is the U.S. Defense Secretary on Sunday.

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MARK ESPER, U.S. DEFENSE SECRETARY: This is part of a terrible situation that Turkey has put us in. And, again, despite our protestations, we now know, we believe, that the Turks now intend to go further south than originally expected and to go both west and east, which would increase their zone from beyond the 30-kilometer depth and nearly 440 kilometers wide. At the same time, we've learned in the last 24 hours that it looks like the SDF is cutting a deal with the Syrians and Russians.

CHRIS WALLACE, FOX NEWS HOST: Now, we should say SDF, those are the Kurdish forces, the Syrian Democracy Forces.

ESPER: Defense Forces, that's right. They're cutting a deal. And now, what we're facing is U.S. forces in a trap between a Syrian- Russian army moving north to take on the Turkish army that is moving south. It puts us in a terrible position and the protection and safety of our service members come first to me.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ALLEN: Mark Esper's predecessor, James Mattis, is among those who say a U.S. exit could be just what ISIS needs to regroup. The Kurds were a key U.S. ally fighting the extremists. They were also guarding ISIS prisoners and their families.

HOLMES: And, indeed, amid the chaos of the Turkish offensive, the Kurds claimed nearly 800 people with ties to foreign ISIS fighters, families and such, have escaped. They say ISIS family members were among those who fled after guards at a camp were attacked.

ALLEN: The Turks are using allied rebel groups in their offensive and pro-Turkish forces have now cut off a major road Kobani.

HOLMES: Now, that's a largely Kurdish city near where U.S. forces have been based. CNN's Nick Paton Walsh is on the ground reporting from Northeastern Syria.

NICK PATON WALSH, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Extraordinary to witness this day, just how fast things are changing here in Northeastern Syria, how quickly the positions of the Americans and their Syrian-Kurdish allies are collapsing, deteriorating, how fast the ground is changing hands.

We saw what we thought would be a simple drive to the city of Kobani, where the Syrian Kurds fought so hard against ISIS with American support. We saw in that highway the scope of Turkish ambitions, how terrified civilians are at bumping into Syrian rebels that Turkey is backing and doing the fighting for them, and also just quickly things can unfold here.

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WALSH: The road to Kobani tells you how savage this wall already is and where it's going. Here, Kurdish female activists Hervin Khalaf was shot dead allegedly by Syrian rebels Turkey is backing, a gruesome video of the killing viral online.

Just outside (INAUDIBLE), this huge family camp, there's panic.

Gunfire up ahead, trucks turn around fast, families in disarray. There were heavy clashes there, he says. Nobody confirmed (ph). What do you want from us, he says. They are coming and they'll take everything. May God end America.

Turkey and before them, ISIS, have been their enemies here but only America has betrayed them, and they are leaving. Just down the road, this patrol pulling out of (INAUDIBLE).

Well, they don't want to talk to us, but, clearly, Americans still active in areas around the Syrian Kurds.

[00:05:03]

As they leave, Turkey makes its bold ambition to go anywhere. A jet flying low, sending a message to us, the Kurds and the Americans leave now. But the arrival of two U.S. Apache helicopters to circle the area and their patrol show the Americans are not ready to do that just yet despite President Trump's instincts to end the endless war, as he says. Syria's war though just keeps getting longer.

Well, a U.S. official has told that actually the road now towards Kobani, where they have some of their troops based is being cut off by Turkish-backed Syrian rebels. The set up checkpoints just outside that town we were in and we've had to leave.

But this is extraordinary. Nobody thought this was originally part of Turkey's invasion plan.

And as we drive away, it seems clear Turkey plans to seize the world in part. These are Turkish armored personnel carriers and tanks bearing Turkeys flags, more of them arriving in the dust. Soon, Syrian Kurds won't be able to drive down here at all and the west of their area cut off from its east, the city of Kobani, again, left to face a siege.

Now, one of the major problems these Syrian rebels that Turkey is getting to do the fighting for them, one U.S. official said to me that they're mostly extremist, former ISIS, former Al Qaeda. Turkey has always said that these were moderates who could transform this area into a place where Sunni Syrian Arabs would be comfortable living. But they are striking terror in the heart of many Syrian Kurds that we met. They are terrified. They are often running away from situations where they feel they're about to be under attack.

And we see the grounds here constantly changing, people packing up to leave from homes that they've been in for years. It's terrifying, really, to see a new chapter in Syria's civil war unfold here and the possibility of yet further bloodshed.

U.S. troops are kind of caught in the middle of this, really precariously caught between these different emerging factors. The possibility that Syrian Kurds, who used to be their allies, are perhaps reaching out to the Syrian regime backed by Russia to bring their forces in to fight alongside them and push the Turkish back, the fact that Turkish are so much more aggressive in pushing so much further into Northern Syria than they suggested they would, and, of course, those extremist Syrian rebel forces, that according to American official, doing so much the fighting on the ground here. It's moving quickly, it's deeply depressing for those of us that watched ISIS to get pushed back, who, according to one U.S. official, may well be getting a second life here. We'll have to see just how many days U.S. forces feel comfortable managing their withdrawal.

Nick Paton Walsh, CNN in Northeastern Syria.

HOLMES: All right. Why don't we have a look at the map now to give you a better idea of where things stand in Syria.

Now, as Nick was reporting there, Turkey wants to establish what it is calling a safe zone in the north, Turkey here, Syria here. But the thing is they wanted to go 30 kilometers into Syria. That's what they said. There are already signs there that Turkey is wanting to go much further to the south into Syria. That offensive being resisted by the largely Kurdish-Syrian Democratic Forces, this sort dark red area here, is the triangle, sort of north of the Euphrates. They have occupied and kept, by and large, peaceful over the last couple of years, while at the same time leading that fight against ISIS. Here is Raqqa.

Now, the Syrian government still controls most of the control and there are also scattered pockets of rebels and Turkish-backed fighters here and here. This is Idlib area over here, which is going to be problematic going forward.

Now, what this map does not show is ISIS because, of course, the geographical caliphate is long gone. These little red dots here though are camps and prisons where Kurds are guarding ISIS fighters. And that could be a problem too. There are fears that the terror group could seize on all this instability, regroup after U.S. troop leaves after the Kurdish fighters are going to leave these camps to go and fight on the front to defend their people. What happens to those ISIS prisoners? Already some have escaped. And as we said earlier, families have also escaped from camps. A very, very fluid battlefield and a very worrying one.

Now, let's get some more insight from Michael Singh from Abu Dhabi. He's a senior fellow and managing director at The Washington Institute, also served as a special assistant to the former U.S. secretaries of state, Condoleeza Rice and Colin Powell. Great to have you.

You co-wrote a report for the Syria study group just last month, emphasizing in part the importance of U.S. engagement in Syria, a role that was for the benefit of the U.S., as well as regional security. Is that whole notion in tatters now?

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MICHAEL SINGH, SENIOR FELLOW AND MANAGING DIRECTOR, THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE: Well, there does seem to be, Michael, a sort of cascading effect from this decision to pull back U.S. troops and not to oppose the Turkish incursion into Northeastern Syria. And it sort of shows you just how much a bang for the buck we were getting for what was a very modest military mission, in fact, in Syria. HOLMES: It is clear, as we just said, that the Turks are going much further than they said they would and who is to stop them at the moment. I mean, the U.S. now talking sanctions but that horse surely bolted and Turkey is not going to stop with that thread over the mill (ph), are they?

SINGH: Well, no, I don't think so. And the whole 30-kilometer business was probably just a function of Turkey trying to negotiate the safe zone with the United States. Obviously, this is no longer being negotiated and so I'm sure Turkey will operate according to whatever it feels are its military imperatives. And, really, all there will be to stop Turkey is sort of its own sense of when its forces have sort of stretched too far or sort of the insertion, as it were, of Assad regime forces which apparently the -- our Kurdish partners have now negotiated. And those forces may interpose themselves now between the Turks and the Kurds.

HOLMES: It's a sort of situation where Donald Trump seems to see this as a zero sum game. I mean, he literally said, why should we protect the Syria-Turkey when we can't protect our own border? He said that. That's not a very geopolitical view though, is it? What happens on the Turkey-Syria border can certainly impact U.S. security, particularly when it comes to a potential resurgence of ISIS.

SINGH: Well, I think that's absolutely right. I mean, I think you'll see many potential reverberations from this action. You'll see the resurgence of ISIS. We're already -- we had already been seeing that before the U.S. withdrawal. As you said, Michael, we've already seen ISIS fighters breaking out of prisons. And that will be a threat, not just to Europe but to the United States.

You'll also probably see a presence by Iran now, in Northeastern Syria, because where the regime forces go, Iran also goes. And that raises the worrisome prospect of Iran linking its Syrian proxies with its Iraqi proxies which, in turn, may bring a sort of expansion of the Israeli war against Iran and that part of the world.

HOLMES: Yes, you make a very good point. That gives them their land bridge all the way through the Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Israelis don't like that one little bit

It's not just about Turks and Kurds. The fallout is so much bigger as you alluded too there. Russia and Iran are going to win strategically, the risk of ISIS reforming and the potential for a sectarian warfare here, not to mention the humanitarian crisis.

SINGH: Well, that's right. I mean, obviously, we've already seen in eight years of fighting in Syria, hundreds of thousands killed, 11 million or so refugees outside the country, we've seen norms of warfare absolutely shattered. And, frankly, there was this sense that while the fighting is dying down and the war is ending, this shows us that now, in fact, we are moving into maybe even a more dangerous and dynamic phase of the war. And all of those factors are likely to increase, more people killed, more displaced, more sort of terrible reverberations of this conflict. HOLMES: Where do you see this going? I mean, that's a hard question to ask because who knows the way it's changing almost by the hour. What is Turkey's endgame? What would happen if their forces bump up against Assad's forces, Kurds stuck in the middle, and the role also, crucially, of these sort of Arab militias that are fighting on Turkey's behalf but do not follow the rules of war?

SINGH It is difficult to see where this is going to go. Certainly now it seems to be that the regime forces are seeking to enter Northeastern Syria. They will then sort of bump up against those Turkish forces. However, you have to bear in mind in the rest of the country, things aren't exactly settled. So we've seen that in the areas the regime has retaken and, in fact, security conditions have deteriorated, and you see sort of renewed insurgencies in those areas as well.

So on the one hand, you'll probably have now the regime feeling stronger in the political process. Maybe the United States dealt out of that process. And so maybe now, Russia, Iran, Assad have a stronger hand to resolve the conflict politically on their terms, but at the same time, security conditions sort of declining and ISIS perhaps making a comeback.

HOLMES: Michael Singh with the Washington Institute, great to have your expertise on this very complex battlefield. Thanks so much.

SINGH: Thank you.

ALLEN: And we are following breaking news out of Ecuador where the government there has reached an agreement to end nearly two weeks of violent protests.

HOLMES: Yes. After talks with indigenous leaders, officials agreed to repeal an unpopular decree that ended fuel subsidies and sparked all the unrest. CNN's Gustavo Valdes joins us now from the capital, Quito.

This was a deal done with the International Monetary Fund. One would have thought that the president couldn't really bail out of this. How is he going to enforce this and still abide by the deal that he needs with the IMF?

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Is this going to be enough?

GUSTAVO VALDES, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, let's see because certainly they could not keep up the pressure with the indigenous people and then many others who joined in the last couple of days against the way the government reacted to the initial protest, they said that with extensive force, the way used during the initial public conversations that we were able to witness on T.V.

The indigenous community, you know, confronted the president about the injured and the dead (ph) in 12 days of protest. So that was certainly high up on the priorities for the government to solve. And they probably felt that there was no other way to stop the violence and keep the country moving other than repealing this decree.

Now, they acknowledged something has to be done to improve the economy. They said they're going to sit on the table with the indigenous community, with the government and find a way to perhaps target these subsidies so only people who really need the low prices get it, find a mechanism where that can be done, so upper people have to pay full price, lower people get a discount.

One of the problems they kept bringing up is that on the border with Columbia, for instance, there are people who take the cheap Ecuadorian fuel and they take it across the border for profit and (INAUDIBLE) a lot of revenue for this country.

HOLMES: The indigenous people have led protests in the past and they brought down presidents. How wounded is President Moreno after what we have seen unfold in Quito and elsewhere, indeed, around the country?

VALDES: Well, it's going to be interesting to see what kind of political capital he has. During these 12 days, he actually had the support of a lot of sectors of the country, even the opponent during the presidential campaign a few years ago, the opposition came and support his changed (ph). But then, if needed, the country had to move away from that, the social programs imposed many years ago that are obsolete at this point, so let's see what happens.

The community initially did a little recap. Initial protests were led by the transportation unions. They came to an agreement by Wednesday that seems to be calm even though Wednesday was heavy on protests and violence and clashes, but the transportation unions have basically come to terms. They got some increase on their prices they can charge the consumers, they knew they weren't going to have to make a general adjustment, but the indigenous people felt left out of this agreement and they made their voices heard.

The protest, Friday morning, yes, they escalated. But then they reached a point where it seems to be a truce in the confrontations. And not an hour after the president went into a national televised addressing that he personally would not negotiate with indigenous. All of a sudden, there was a new increase of confrontations were the police reacted very quickly and very swiftly, trying to push back the protesters around the National Assembly.

And that seemed to have upset a lot of people who perhaps were on the stands, who were neutral on the issue. They understood that changes had to be done. But when they saw those pictures on T.V., when children who thought they were safe after the initial truce were affected by the tear gas, that seemed to me to be the moment where the public opinion changed this country and the President Moreno might have lost whatever support he might have had.

HOLMES: Hopefully that truce holds. Gustavo Valdes there on the spot in Quito for us, thank you.

VALDES: Thanks. ALLEN: Well, the impeachment inquiry into President Trump enters a critical week and next year when a key witness is expected to tell Congress about the presidents now infamous phone call with Ukraine's president.

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IVAN CABRERA, CNN METEOROLOGIST: CNN Weather Watch, I'm your meteorologist, Ivan Cabrera. We're flying into the eastern United States or into Canada. We are looking pretty good here. Nothing organized, no big storm systems. We do have a frontal boundary across the southeastern U.S., but this area has been significantly affected by lack of rain over the last several months here. So it's beneficial rain, and that's about it. I mean cold air coming in and across the great lakes but no big storms.

And we've certainly seen those for British Columbia. We've seen that for the Pacific northwest, in general, and into the Rockies with those very early season snowfalls. Well, nothing to be seen right now, except, again, for some colder air coming out of Central Canada with single digit highs there, Chicago, about 12, mostly sunny conditions, and then we'll have temperatures in the 20s.

But I think, again, some showers, even a few rumbles of thunder across the southeastern U.S. in the next few days as that boundary continues to kind of drape through there with the wet weather that will continue. There, you have highs coming out for New York into the upper teens sends a bonus for this time of year. You can get north of 20, mid and upper teens by the time we get into the weekend.

And into the early part of new weeks, D.C. looking cooler as well, will start off the week generally across east with warmer temperatures and eventually seeing that dip through the latter part of the week and heading into the weekend, but then back to about average temps for next week.

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HOLMES: Quite a week ahead in U.S. elections, that's for sure. You've got U.S. lawmakers returning to Capitol Hill, a critical week of testimony and the impeachment inquiry against President Trump.

ALLEN: Top Trump administration officials also face deadlines this week to turn over documents related to the Ukraine investigation. CNN's Jeremy Diamond has the latest for us from Washington.

JEREMY DIAMOND, CNN WHITE HOUSE REPORTER: A busy week coming up on Capitol Hill this week as Democrats move forward with their impeachment inquiry into the president's dealings with Ukraine. Several current and former members of the president's administration dealing with Ukraine matters will be coming before the House to testify, beginning on Monday with the president's former top adviser on Russia and European affairs, Fiona Hill. And then later in the week, you'll have several members of the president's State Department as well as the U.S. ambassador to the European Union, Gordon Sondland. He will be testifying on Thursday. That comes after the White House last week blocked him from testifying on Capitol Hill. But after receiving a subpoena from House Democrats, Sondland is expected to testify.

Of course, he was central to this whole matter involving several diplomats in Ukraine and the text messages that have since been released publicly. Sondland was downplaying those concerns of a quid pro quo that were coming from the top diplomat in Ukraine. But according to The Washington Post, Sondland is now expected to say that he learned that there was no quid pro quo directly from the president but that he doesn't necessarily know if that is true.

One official though that we are not expecting to see testify on Capitol Hill anytime soon is the whistleblower who sparked this whole impeachment inquiry when the intelligence official launched a formal complaint with the Director of National Intelligence's inspector general.

Congressman Adam Schiff, the top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, saying that he is concerned for that whistleblower's safety after the president's attacks on him.

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REP. ADAM SCHIFF (D-CA): Yes, we were interested in having the whistleblower come forward. Our primary --

MARGARET BRENNAN, CBS NEWS HOST: Not anymore?

SCHIFF: Well, our primary interest right now is making sure that the person is protected. Indeed, now, there is more than one whistleblower that they are protected. And given that we already have the call record, we don't need the whistleblower that wasn't on the call to tell us what took place, we have the best evidence of that.

We do want to make sure that we identify other evidence that is pertinent to the withholding of the military support, the effort to cover this up by hiding this in a classified computer system, we want to make sure that we uncover full details about the conditionality of either the military aid or that meeting with the Ukraine president.

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DIAMOND: Now, while House Democrats were busy preparing for this week of testimonies and document deadlines on Capitol Hill, the president spent much of his weekend attacking Democrats, House impeachment inquiry is unconstitutional B.S. And he also spent much of his time defending his personal attorney, Rudy Giuliani, on Twitter as well as appearing on a Fox News program on Saturday. That all came after the president learned through The New York Times that Rudy Giuliani is now under federal investigation over whether he potentially violated federal lobbying laws.

Jeremy Diamond, CNN, the White House.

ALLEN: Days after an Iranian oil tanker was mysteriously attacked, Saudi Arabia is responding to those who believe the kingdom was responsible. We'll have that story coming up here on CNN Newsroom.

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ALLEN: And welcome back to CNN Newsroom, I'm Natalie Allen.

HOLMES: And I'm Michael Holmes. Let's update you on the top stories this hour.

The government of Ecuador reaching a deal with indigenous leaders to end ten days of violent protest. The demonstrations sparked by a decree that cut fuel subsidies. But after talks with protest leaders, the government has agreed to repeal that order. The unrest killed at least seven people, injured hundreds more.

ALLEN: The death toll from the powerful typhoon that hammered Japan has risen to 31 people. The storm's record-setting rain has flooded entire neighborhoods, created landslides, and cut power to thousands. At least 14 people are still missing. Rescue operations are underway as the storm continues to weaken now and move away.

HOLMES: The U.S. defense secretary says President Donald Trump is ordering remaining U.S. forces out of northern Syria. This coming as Turkish troops push further into Syria in their offensive against the Kurds, further than they said they would. Pro-Turkish forces have cut off a key road leading into Kobani, a crucial largely Kurdish city near where U.S. troops have been based.

ALLEN: Saudi Arabia denies it was involved in an attack on an Iranian oil tanker.

HOLMES: Iran said Friday the vessel was struck by two missiles as it sailed near Saudi Arabia. Matthew Chance with more.

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MATTHEW CHANCE, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, this is the first real reaction we've had from Saudi Arabia after that mysterious attack on an Iranian oil tanker off the Saudi coast on Friday.

The vessel is reported to have been struck by two explosions, which Iran's national oil company said were likely caused by missiles. Initial reports which were clawed backed by Iran later, pointed the finger of blame at Saudi Arabia, where last month, oil facilities were struck in drone attacks blamed on Iraq.

Well, now the Saudi minister of state for foreign affairs, Adel al- Jubeir, has distanced his country from the oil tanker incident. I spoke to him here in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, at a briefing. ADEL AL-JUBEIR, SAUDI MINISTER OF STATE FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS: We

blamed Iran because the missiles and the drones were Iranian made. We know that the strike came from the north, not from the south.

We have -- we asked the United Nations to provide investigators. A number of other countries have joined this investigation in order to determine where the launch took place from. And once the investigation is complete, we will publicize the results and we will look at what other areas.

CHANCE: Are you categorically denying Saudi involvement in the tanker strike?

AL-JUBEIR: We don't engage in such behavior. Besides, there are conflicting reports about this. The national Iranian oil company says nothing was struck. Somebody else, something was struck. People say there's leakage of oil. Others say there is no leakage of oil. So the story is not very clear yet on this issue. But what I can tell you is we don't engage in such behavior at all. That's not how we operate, and that's not how we've operated in the past.

CHANCE: All right. Well, that Saudi denial comes amid escalating tensions in the region with Iran and its proxies. Shortly after the tanker incident, the United States announced it was sending more troops and anti-missile defenses to its Saudi ally, bringing to 3,000 the number of additional U.S. forces being deployed to the kingdom this month.

And of course, a sign of just how much concern there is in Washington at the increasingly fragile security situation in this volatile region.

Matthew Chance, CNN, Riyadh.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HOLMES: All right. We'll take a short break. When we come back, in the coming hours in London, the state opening of Parliament gets underway, with the British government in a right old state of affairs.

ALLEN: We'll tell you why this year's queen speech has been so controversial.

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ALLEN: A new warning from the E.U.'s chief Brexit negotiator. Michel Barnier says Britain's first proposals to exit the European Union still are not acceptable. This coming ahead of a critical E.U. summit later this week.

HOLMES: And that means more pressure on the British prime minister, Boris Johnson, as the clock, of course, continues to tick down to the October 31 Brexit deadline. In the coming hours, all eyes will be on the palace of Westminster as his government sets out its agenda for the queen's speech, which opens Parliament.

Anna Stewart shows us what to expect.

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ANNA STEWART, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): State opening formally commemorates the beginning of a session of Parliament. Steeped in tradition, this elaborate ceremony showcases British history, culture, and contemporary politics.

The state opening is the only regular opportunity to unite the three elements of legislature: the House of Lords, the House of Commons, and the queen.

The occasion is marked by a colorful series of events. It begins when the queen travels to the palace of Westminster in a state coach, escorted by the household cavalry.

The imperial state crown, a supreme symbol of her authority in the land, it gets its own carriage, too.

The queen arrives through the sovereign's entrance and then enters the robing room where she put on the imperial state crown and royal robe. From there, she enters the royal gallery and joins the state procession. The procession enters the chamber of the House of Lords, where the queen takes the throne.

At the command of the queen, the official known as the Usher of the Black Rod is dispatched to fetch MPs from the Commons.

The door of the comments slammed in the usher's face. He then has to knock on the door three times to be allowed in. This is to symbolize the independent of the House of Commons. Once inside, Black Rod summons lawmakers to the Lords.

Those MPs, the Black Rod Usher and Commons officials all make their way to the Lords Chamber, where they stand in the back.

Members of the Lords and guests, including judges, ambassadors and high commissioners, will sit in the Lords Chamber.

QUEEN ELIZABETH II, UNITED KINGDOM: My lords and members of the House of Commons.

STEWART: Then the queen delivers her speech to members of both houses. Written by the government and approved by the cabinet, the speech lays out policies and proposed legislation for the new parliamentary session.

The queen then departs the Lords Chamber, prompting the new session to start. Both houses then begin to debate the content of the speech. Members will continue debating over several days, picking up different subject areas each day.

Anna Stewart, CNN, London.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ALLEN: All right. After that report, Dominic, as you say, "Phew!" Even more stuff that they have to do.

Dominic Thomas joining us now. He's CNN's European affairs commentator. He's in L.A. Dominic, good to see you.

DOMINIC THOMAS, CNN EUROPEAN AFFAIRS COMMENTATOR: Thank you for having me on, Natalie.

ALLEN: OK. Typically, Dominic, the queen's speech is the traditional reopening of Parliament, like we just saw the procedure laid out for us by Anna. But this speech will be different. How so?

THOMAS: Well, yes. You're absolutely right. It's going to be very different, I think for a number of reasons.

I think, first of all, we have Boris Johnson here, who has lost his Parliamentary majority. And so here he is, appearing in what would normally be a mere formality, an opportunity for a head of state to outline their legislative agenda and priorities. But what's hanging over them here, too, is the fact that a general election is going to be coming up at some time in the next few months.

And so, effectively, what the queen is going to be reading is an excerpt or short versions from what is effectively the Conservative Party general election manifesto. And that will, of course, enrage MPs, and MPs will just be waiting for the opportunity to move back into the chamber to have an opportunity to articulate their particular visions of this. And it's very unlikely that Boris Johnson will actually receive a favorable vote for this -- for this proposal. And so it's very unusual times here.

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ALLEN: Right. And as far as Johnson and the Brexit battle front, let's talk about his different deal for Northern Ireland and the consequences of that. And, also, what about Scotland? Could they expect a different deal, too?

THOMAS: Well, this is a great point. Because essentially, what he is doing now, which is really going back over what was a red line in the Conservative Party, was that they would not strike a different deal for the different parts of the United Kingdom.

And essentially, what he has proposed here is that Northern Ireland, that of course, sits on the island of Ireland, separate from Scotland, Wales, and England, would essentially remain in a customs union with the European Union. And all along, that has been unacceptable.

And you can guarantee that if that's the deal that he's pushing, this will also enrage the Scottish, who will be closer to moving towards a request for succession.

But this is actually a perfect example of how Boris Johnson's plan could potentially fracture the United Kingdom. Now, having said that, I truly believe that, even if he was able to

strike a particular deal at this juncture with the European Union, there is no way, having lost his majority, that he will be able to get this through the houses of Parliament, who are far more intent on just making sure that as the clock runs out, that he goes back to Brussels to ask for an extension, and they can then consider a vote of no confidence or a general election, in which they will each get to state their position in front of the British public. That's the priority for now.

ALLEN: Right. So what of the looming question of another Brexit referendum? How likely and what are the arguments for and against it?

THOMAS: Yes, well, that's another great point. I think, no matter what, whether you have a referendum or a general election, ultimately, they're going to feel very similar.

One thing about the referendum that has often been overlooked is that a referendum is, at best, an opportunity to take the pulse of the nation at a particular moment in history.

And let's not forget that, all the way back in 1975, when the U.K. had just joined the European Union, about a year and a half before that, a referendum was held in which the British people were asked whether or not the U.K. should remain in the European community. And at that time, 17 million people voted to stay.

Then, all the way up to 2016, about the same number, just over 17 million, voted to leave. But now we find ourselves almost three and a half years down the road since the 2016 referendum, and it would not be unreasonable to suggest that the British people are better educated on the question of Brexit then they were back in 2016. And I think that no politician should fear going back to the people on this particular question.

The key issue is what sits on that ballot. Clearly, the option to remain in the European Union, but it would be a complete waste of time if the other option was simply to leave. One needs to express what that leave is going to be and what the Brexit deal would look like. And in many ways, a general election can also provide the path to that, because each political party is going to be forced to position themselves on Brexit in what would be a single-issue general election if that comes before a referendum.

ALLEN: October 31st is getting so close, and the way you just laid out, it's almost like mind-boggling, Dominic, what has to happen in the next couple of weeks.

We always appreciate you helping us follow it along. Dominic Thomas, thanks so much.

THOMAS: Right. Thanks, Natalie. We'll be back, for sure.

ALLEN: Yes, we will.

HOLMES: He's got that right! We've had three years of this. ALLEN: I know.

HOLMES: It's just endless, isn't it?

ALLEN: I know.

HOLMES: Well, we'll know -- Well, we might have a resolution. We might not.

ALLEN: All right. Well, thank you for watching. We're not going anywhere. We'll be back soon. I'm Natalie Allen.

HOLMES: And I'm Michael Holmes. WORLD SPORT is next. We'll be back for another hour of top stories from around the world in about 15 minutes.

ALLEN: See you then.

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