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Iran's Foreign Minister Warns U.S. for Its Stupid Action; U.S. Allies Alarmed by U.S. Attack on Baghdad; Nancy Pelosi Calls for an Immediate Briefing; Oil Prices Shaken by the Tensions in the Middle East; U.S. Strike On Baghdad Kills Top Iranian Commander, Qasem Soleimani; U.S. Official Tells CNN This Strike Was A Target Of Opportunity; Pentagon, Strike Came At The Direction Of U.S. President Trump. Aired 3-4a ET

Aired January 03, 2020 - 03:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[03:00:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: This is CNN breaking news.

GEORGE HOWELL, CNN ANCHOR: We are following the breaking news this hour. The United States killing a senior Iranian military commander on Iraqi soil. I'm George Howell.

NATALIE ALLEN, CNN ANCHOR: I'm Natalie Allen. Welcome to our viewers here in the U.S. and all around the world.

The implications are significant. Here's what we know.

HOWELL: Iran is vowing revenge at this point for a U.S. rocket attack that has killed its most revered military leader; his name, Qasem Soleimani. This happened again early Friday morning near the Baghdad International Airport.

That strike also killing a senior member of the Iranian backed popular mobilization forces. That's the same group whose supporters tried to storm the U.S. embassy in Baghdad earlier this week.

ALLEN: The Pentagon says it launched the attack on Soleimani on the direct orders of President Donald Trump. It blames the Iranian general for the deaths of hundreds of American troops over the years and says the strike was a defensive action.

HOWELL: And Iran's spiritual leader ayatollah Ali Khamenei says harsh revenge awaits the criminals who killed Soleimani. And the Foreign Minister Javad Zarif blasted what he called the brutality and stupidity of the United States vowing that resistance in the region would only grow stronger.

Let's start this hour with Arwa Damon. Arwa with the latest on the details about what happened.

ARWA DAMON, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: This targeted assassination is momentous escalation, one that can only most likely be viewed by Iran as an act of war. Now we have entered uncharted territory.

Qasem Soleimani is not only a revered figure inside Iran especially when it comes to the Quds Force, but also when it comes to a portion of the Iraqi population, when it comes to Iran's proxies here in Iraq who he was fairly often reported to have been sided with on the battlefield especially in the fights against ISIS.

He's also been instrumental in helping to prop up the regime of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad.

But this is also something that is going to potentially push the region into a sort of warfare that is going to be unlike anything that we have seen.

These kinds of drastic events such as when the U.S. invaded Iraq taking dictator Saddam Hussein out of power do tend to have unforeseen consequences. That back in 2003 very quickly led to the rise of among other things Al-Qaeda in Iraq which then led to the rise of ISIS.

This too very different but also to a certain degree something that is potentially going to lead to some very drastic consequences. But exactly where and how Iran is going to react, and it's difficult to imagine a scenario where Iran doesn't already have a plan in place for this.

But where that plan is going to unfold, how that plan is going to unfold, exactly who it is going to impact, that is something that we can only speculate about at this stage.

For those in Iraq, there is a portion of the population that will be celebrating Soleimani's death but also worried about what the repercussions from it are going to be. And then there's also the reality and that is how strong and powerful Iran is in Iraq both militarily and politically.

Arwa Damon, CNN, Baghdad.

ALLEN: And we received this a short time ago from U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. She is calling for immediate briefing to Congress on the U.S. strike that killed Soleimani.

Pelosi said in a written statement "The full Congress must be immediately briefed on this serious situation and on the next steps under consideration by the administration including the significant escalation of the deployment of additional troops to the region."

HOWELL: On this major story CNN has depth and perspective with our correspondents and analysts around the world. CNN's Kristen Holmes is traveling with the president in West Palm Beach, Florida.

We also have our international security editor Nick Paton Walsh, live in London. Nick has reported extensively in the region and was the first to learn about a key aspect of how the strike was carried out. ALLEN: Also, our CNN anchor here with us Michael Holmes in the

studio. He has seen firsthand the considerable damage forces loyal to Soleimani had done in Iraq to coalition forces and civilians alike.

And our international diplomatic editor Nic Robertson is also in London. Nic will talk about the impact we can expect throughout the region especially with Tehran already vowing revenge. And Ramin Mostaghim brings us the reaction live from Iran's capital.

Kristen, let's start with you there in Palm Beach -- West Palm Beach where the president is. Have we seen him? Have we heard from him about the time when this happened?

[03:05:08]

KRISTEN HOLMES, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Natalie. Well, right now this is what we have. It's obviously an ongoing situation but what we've learned is that President Trump was seen leaving a secured area at his Mar-a-Lago resort around 6 p.m. this evening.

Now officials say that he was kept update throughout the night. His aides keeping him apprised of the events that were happening, but this is all we've heard in terms of an official response from President Trump.

It is a tweet. We'll pull it up for you here. All it is just an American flag. We're not expecting him to speak overnight clearly but we'll see what happens tomorrow in the morning especially since this is getting so much traction. Now we're learning so much more about the events surrounding this.

But we have learned that President Trump was not alone. His national security advisor Robert O'Brien was seen at Mar-a-Lago and it wasn't just him. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy actually Instagram photos of he and the president in which he said were tonight, he said he was proud of the president.

It showed him with his advisor Jared Kushner who of course is also his son-in-law, as well as his deputy press secretary Hogan Gidley basically just taking photos around the resort.

Now not all U.S. lawmakers had the same positive reaction that the Minority House Leader Kevin McCarthy did. Of course, on the most hand, on one hand Republicans mostly did praise President Trump, but Democrats were a little bit more concerned.

They talked about the consequences of his action and the fact that President Trump did not get authorization from Congress.

Now we'll pull up another tweet for you here. This is the reaction of the House intel chairman, Democrat Adam Schiff. He says, "Soleimani was responsible for unthinkable violence and the world is better off without him, but Congress didn't authorize and the American people don't want war with Iran. All steps must now be taken to protect our forces against the almost inevitable escalation and increased risk." And, Natalie, as you said House Speaker Nancy Pelosi now calling for

an immediate briefing of all of Congress. But I do want to note here that it is not just Democrats who are concerned. We have heard from these analysts, these scholars of the Mideast who say this is alarming, that this could trigger significant consequences.

And just to give you a little context here around the involvement of President Trump. This is man who has repeatedly said since the 2016 campaign that he wants to get out the Mideast. He has lamented the big foot print that America has in the Mideast. And a lot of the analysts now saying this is not going to fix that problem. In fact, this may actually make it worse.

ALLEN: All right, Kristen for us there, thank you. We should be hearing from the president probably on this day. We'll wait and see.

Now to our Nic Robertson. Nic, this is uncharted territory which could have unintended consequences like we saw when the U.S. moved into Iraq on Saddam Hussein. Talk about what impact this could have on the region in the gulf, and you even saw what happened -- the aftermath of when Iran attacked the Saudi oil fields.

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMATIC EDITOR: Yes, the Iranian strike in Saudi Arabia recently was significant because it showed complexity. It was a multiple drone and rocket strike. So, it was sophisticated. And it reduced Saudi Arabia's oil output by over a half.

So, what they can do in the short-term can be very effective. Whether or not the United States would see that coming or its allies would see that sort of strike coming this time and stop it its tracks that's unclear.

Certainly, this is one of the things that people will be expecting. I think the threat falls into two areas here. One is what the proxies will do they were prime last year because of the escalating tensions with United States.

They know exactly what's expected of them by Tehran and that is to attack U.S. forces and U.S. interests in the region, U.S. forces in Syria, then on the ground and will be exposed to that in Iraq as well potentially. Potentially in the gulf as well. The Fifth Fleet base in -- base in Bahrain.

So, there will be the threat from proxies what they may choose to do. The throttle point that the regime often goes for when it wants to escalate the situation quickly and draw international support to try to tamp things down, that's not clear that that's the route they'll go this time.

But what we've seen them do over the past six months is throttle back or attempt to influence the flow of oil through the Straits of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf. This is significant. Oil flows through there every day. Iran has been capturing ships and mining tankers in that region over the past six months. It could escalate that. We've seen it also over the past six months incrementally escalate its

enrichment of uranium. They will likely fast track that at the moment. That's going to necessarily bring the question of how does the U.S. and allies respond to that with air strikes, that's always been avoided until now.

[03:10:00]

So that question comes on the front burner but I think these in the short-term of the ways that we can expect the regime to handle this. Certainly, for them they'll feel this as an existential threat and their proxies will want to show Tehran just how loyal they are and how hard they can fight.

HOWELL: Nic, it does seem that it's not the question if a response will come from Iran but rather when and how that will play out. We'll have to see. Nic Robertson, thank you again.

Let's cross over now to our colleague just down the hall, Nick Paton Walsh. Nick has information about how the strike was carried out. Nick, tell us what you've learned.

NICK PATON WALSH, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: A U.S. official says to me this was a, quote, "target of opportunity." But it is clear there was a presidential authorization for this attack that properly lasted was founded significantly more in advance of just last night's attack.

So clearly, a strategic message here from the United States. They want this to be seen to be deliberate. I'm also being told too that it is essentially a preemptive move that possibly it's a reflection of how what the U.S. called its maximum pressure, maximum pressure strategy that wasn't having the desired effect of changing Iranian behavior.

If you're looking at this through the prism of why would the United States do this, this extraordinary escalatory move, well, they may say we were suffering perhaps paper cuts, attacks on our embassy in Baghdad, attacks on our allies' oil fields like Nic was referring to. Things have been escalating over the past months that are likely similar to the kinds of things Iran will first used to try and respond to this.

So, essentially the U.S. was enduring these kinds of attacks without actually responding. Remember when Donald Trump said he called off strikes against Iran because of an attack on a drone that may have been perceived possibly as an element of U.S. weakness.

I recall interviewing the Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif around the time of the Saudi oil field crisis and he said that if the Iran was attacked by the United States it would be, quote, "all-out war."

And that was clearly a signal designed to be sent by him a moderate to the Trump White House who heard it very clearly, who responded to it through the secretary of state a matter of an hour or so later to say do not attack us or we will essentially open Pandora's Box. They have since, it seems, Iran seen that as an element of weakness,

seen the U.S. decision to not respond to the attack on the Saudi oil fields as Trump really making good on his promise to pull out of the Middle East and reduce U.S. influence there, and perhaps push things a little too far.

The question really is, is how extensively and how well-advised has the Trump White House war game the response from here. They surely know there will be an Iranian retaliation. They surely have their forces on high alert. Their embassies on lockdown. American civilians told to leave certain sensitive areas.

That's already beginning to happen. Does Iran immediately respond, does it respond through proxies, does it respond through conventional warfare? Highly unlikely given the mismatch it has against the U.S. military here.

This is deeply unchartered territory. It will massively impact inside Iran as I'm sure you'll hear from our colleague in Tehran shortly. But more immediately now you have to ask exactly what brought Donald Trump to this extraordinary decision, one that I think begins this new decade in deeply troubling waters in the Middle East.

HOWELL: Nick Paton Walsh live for us in London. Thank you. Let's now bring in our colleague here on set Michael Holmes. Michael, you have covered that region extensively.

Look, our viewers here in the United States and around the world in the U.S. they are waking up to this, help them understand who Soleimani was in Iran because, look, this is a person who had reached beyond the borders of Iran but also was very important within that country.

MICHAEL HOLMES, CNN ANCHOR & CORRESPONDENT: Absolutely. I mean, he took over as head of the Quds Force around 1990, '98 I think it was. He was crucially involved in the Iraq war that the U.S. was fighting in Iraq. Iran was heavily involved in that exporting technology that led to the deaths of hundreds of American servicemen, the EFP, explosively formed projectiles. That was Iranian technology. He was behind that.

He's been involved in Lebanon. He's been involved in Syria. He's executing Iranian regional military strategy. He had a long list. He was able to do a lot of things on his own, on his own recognizance. He was involved.

Yet, the thing is he had blood on his hands. He had a lot of blood on his hands. But to echo partly what Nick was saying there, the thing is why do this at this moment? That I would love to know the strategy of this. He certainly had blood on his hands.

Saddam Hussein had blood on his hands, and taking him out led to a lot of unintended consequences and that's what I think a lot of people are concerned about. What the unintended consequence of this could be.

ALLEN: All right. Michael, thank you. We want to go now to our Nic Robertson. He is London for us. Nic, we've just heard from the prime minister in Iraq saying the air strike on Baghdad's airport is an act of aggression on Iraq and breach of its sovereignty that will lead to a war in the region.

[03:14:57]

But certainly, everyone is saying this won't be a conventional war. It's everyone's guess how this will play out now.

ROBERTSON: It's going to be very asymmetric. It's going to be asymmetric because it involves proxies and it involves proxies in countries like Lebanon where they can Hezbollah there which is a proxy of Tehran can execute attacks on neighboring Israel. It can make some very significant, very damaging attacks that would draw a response from Israel very, very quickly.

So, there's a potential for escalation there. The potential for what happens if the Iranians have another strike as they did on Saudi Arabia, what will -- how will the Saudis respond.

You know, the tipping point to an escalation where you can't turn back can happen, very, very quickly in this region. And as we've been discussing here what has been going on has been a slow escalation, a slow blearing, if you will. The temperature has been rising.

But now at this moment you really are it feels at a very real threshold where Iran will recognize that it wants to respond and it will respond. But how calibrated will that response be? And they won't be able to calibrate it completely because they won't be able to control their proxies completely.

But it's the calibration of that response that's going to determine whether this does literally tip into a much larger and hard to stop regional war or something that Iran feels that they've done what they wanted to do. It's going to very much be determined by how Iran sells this to its people and to its supporters in the region.

But absolutely if they do not respond and do not respond aggressively, they diminish themselves in the region, and that's something they will not want to do.

Iran has set itself as a theocracy over the past 40 years or so since 1979 when they came to power as expanding their influence throughout the region. They will not want this to be the tipping point where their -- where their abilities begin to diminish.

ALLEN: Absolutely. And with proxies in many countries who knows how this reaction could come out from Iran. No one really knows right now. OK, thank you so much. Nic Robertson there for us in London.

HOWELL: Iran's supreme leader is vowing revenge after the United States again kills the most revered member of Iran's military.

Our breaking news coverage continues after this.

[03:20:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ALLEN: Thanks for staying with us. We continue to follow our breaking news.

The Pentagon says it has carried out a strike at the direction of President Trump that killed Iran's top military commander Qasem Soleimani.

HOWELL: This happened in the early morning hours of Friday near Baghdad's International Airport. The strike also killed a senior leader of the Iranian backed Popular Mobilization Force.

ALLEN: The Pentagon says the strike against Soleimani was defensive intended to prevent future attacks on U.S. targets.

Tim Naftali is a CNN presidential historian; he is also the former director of the Nixon Presidential Library. Tim, thanks for coming on.

TIMOTHY NAFTALI, CNN PRESIDENTIAL HISTORIAN: My pleasure.

ALLEN: All right, let's begin with Iran because that is top of mind likely involving U.S. foreign policy right now. Hours ago, we learned via Iraqi state TV the commander of Iran's Quds Forces Qasem Soleimani has been killed in Iraq at attack on Baghdad airport.

A senior member of the Iranian-backed Popular Mobilization Force is also among the dead. This after President Trump just said Iran will pay a big price. They need to act like a normal country. What do you make of this development?

NAFTALI: Well, I mean, what we're seeing is an increase in tensions in Iraq. The United States and Iran have in a sense been fighting a proxy war in Iraq and now the stakes are much higher. We were now going to have to see how the Iranian government responds to the death of a top military commander of theirs.

During -- we're in a moment of real fragility in the United States because of the impeachment crisis. And historically, moments like those are times when foreign adversaries of the United States try to test the United States.

Saddam Hussein when he was leading Iraq did it. When Clinton was going through his crisis. In the Nixon era Greece and Turkey were testing the United States as they fought over Cyprus.

So, we may be seeing a moment where Iran is testing the United States and the death today of General Soleimani -- Soleimani has really, I think raised the stakes for Iran and probably will lead to some kind of response by then. So, it's a very difficult moment.

ALLEN: Yes, questions have been raised as to whether we've -- the United States and Iran have gone beyond a proxy war at this point. How has the president's stand on Iran since he took office, gotten us to this point? We had a deal with Iran and he backed off from that from the get go.

NAFTALI: Well, there was a division in the U.S. national security community over how to deal with an aggressive and ambitious Iran. And the Obama administration came to the conclusion that it was in the interest of the United States to take a small risk to try to reach some kind of agreement with Iran that would allow us to inspect their nuclear facilities.

It wasn't a naive agreement because the United States understood and the world understood that you needed better information on Iranian nuclear developments. And the argument was, and the risk that was taken was the way to do it was to actually have an agreement with Iran that allowed you to put inspectors and instruments in their nuclear facilities.

In return, you had to ease up sanctions on Iran. Now, there are parts of the U.S. intelligence -- national security and intelligence community that thought that this risk was too great, that you shouldn't have done this.

The Trump administration came forward making some of the arguments of those who had said, no, we shouldn't have trusted Iran to the extent the Obama administration did but didn't really provide a new policy. It withdrew the United States from the agreement with Iran and then just talked tough.

ALLEN: Right.

NAFTALI: But with no real sense of where they were going, so we replaced one approach to Iranian aggression and ambition with no approach. With a rhetorical approach or basically we're trying to bully them into acting in our interests. And of course, it hasn't worked.

ALLEN: Tim Naftali, we appreciate your insights. Thank you so much for joining us.

The U.S. air strike in Baghdad had an immediate impact on world oil prices. Crude always did read the price shot up 3 percent as soon as news of the air strike came out. Right now, Brent Crude up 3.25 percent and WTI Crude up just over 3 percent. We'll continue to watch it of course.

It is being called a staggering move by the U.S. in the Middle East. We are live in Tehran with more of our breaking coverage of the U.S. killing of Iran's top military commander right after this.

[03:25:05]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: This is CNN breaking news.

ALLEN: Our breaking news, the Pentagon saying it has carried out a strike at the direction of President Trump that killed Iran's top military commander Qasem Soleimani. And this is big deal, a game changer perhaps.

HOWELL: Significant around the world certainly within that region. Here's what happened during the early hours of Friday near the international airport there in Baghdad. The strike also killed a senior leader of the Iran-backed Popular Mobilization Forces.

ALLEN: The Pentagon says the strike against Soleimani was defensive, intended to prevent future attacks on U.S. targets.

HOWELL: And days of tensions led up to the strike. Last Friday an American contractor was killed in a rocket attack on a U.S. base near Kirkuk, Iraq. Then on Sunday U.S. air strikes hit five facilities in Syria and Iraq linked to Iranian-backed militia.

ALLEN: On Tuesday pro-Iranian protesters attacked the U.S. embassy in Baghdad. They breached the compound. Leading to early Friday in Iraq the U.S. striking the Baghdad airport killing top Iranian commander Soleimani and a senior member of the Iranian-backed Popular Mobilization Forces.

We're joined again by our international security editor Nick Paton Walsh from London. He has reported extensively in the region and was the first to report that Soleimani was a target of opportunity as far as the strike was concerned. So, Nick, what was the -- why was the general so important here?

WALSH: Essentially, he was the man who carried out Iran's operations abroad in short. But also, a key hard liner in a country whose government is often torn between the aspects of moderates who were behind the nuclear deal with the west, trying to reduce sanctions and improve the economy and improve relations with the west and hardliners who though all that was frankly about idea and Iran should push closer towards its military options.

[03:30:00]

It does appear the diplomacy is significantly less on the table so far today. Qasem Soleimani a man who often appeared on the front lines assisting Iran backed militia in the fight against ISIS in Iraq, so something of a storied individual, often images of him would appear on social media suggesting him popping up when ISIS was Iran's key target here.

But a man who also during the last decade the U.S. certainly alleges -- has always been at the front of attacks against United States assets and their allies across the region. You just show people a list of the last instance over the past week or so, of attacks against U.S. facilities that have been attributed to Iran or its proxies in the region and that gives you an idea probably of the U.S. calculus behind this.

They probably thought to themselves when this strike was ordered at a presidential level in the past few days. Yes, a target of opportunity, but one that was certainly seized after a presidential finding with this attack was to be carried out, they presumably thought that Iran's response would be a symmetrical, it probably be a ratcheting up of the kinds of things you just showed on that list really, over the past week or so.

More attacks maybe against embassies. Military personnel, they can defend themselves now in a moment like this. Embassies can go into locked down. There will be other ways possibly across the region, Iran will choose to make its presence felt, it will probably rely on the unexpected, because so much of America's strategy here will be war gaming Iranian's response. How it can endure that, possibly how its ally Israel could endure any response from Iran's proxies to its north. For Lebanon, Hezbollah, who have many rockets trying to measure at the moment, who have long threatened to potentially attack, who are facing domestic political issues in Lebanon at the moment as well.

So we're dealing with a new decade in the Middle East here with an unprecedented moment. Few thoughts, I think this will necessarily happen. It may simply be the response of a president who felt maybe his adversaries in the Middle East felt he was gun-shy. He didn't respond to the substantial attack on Saudi Arabia's oil fields and knocked about a 5 percent of the world's oil supply briefly. He was expected to respond, he simply did not. He said, he did not want more.

Iran's Foreign Minister Javad Zarif came forward and sit an interview with me at the time, that if they were attacked, Iran were attacked that moderate diplomat said, it will be all-out war would be Iran's response. So, possibly this is the White House not wanting their possibility from the reaction to be misread. This is clear, it's decisive, it's exceptionally aggressive.

It may be interpreted as an act of war, but some in Iran's government, be at no mistake here at a conventional military confrontation between Tehran and Washington. We have only one real outcome, but the damage across the region be significant and I think what we are seeing here now is the notion that a diplomatic agreement, certainly the Trump administration maybe with any U.S. administration for the years ahead is more unlikely.

Iran has its own political problems in the months ahead. Legislative elections happening in February, and then at some point next year the moderate President Hassan Rouhani will end his second term and a successor will go into office. This is possibly also part of the calculus playing out here as well. Hardliners versus moderates inside Iran will possibly trying to seek opportunity through this. But I have to tell you, I don't think anybody really expected this this morning. This is unprecedented territory. It's preemptive, yes, for U.S. accepted that certainly, and perhaps a reflection that the maximum pressure strategy on Iran wasn't really altering its behavior, but we are in very, very new waters this morning.

ALLEN: Yes, and I also want to ask you, is Iraq -- Iraq kind of caught in the middle of this, and how will that affect -- this affect the U.S. relationship with Iraq?

PATON WALSH: You have to remember that Iran is Iraq's neighbor so Iran has had a long-term strategy to increase its influence inside Iraq that perhaps got excessive. That's being behind some of the protests to reduce Iranian influence. But that relationship will kind if always be there and has always been there. No matter what form it necessarily takes, it waxes or wanes, possibly if you're Iraqi officials you're looking at the U.S. response, the U.S. invasion, its subsequent on-off involvement in the country as commitment to the fight against ISIS and then its dialing down subsequently after that and seeing a less worthy ally.

So, I think you'll be looking in the months ahead for increasingly complicate relations between Washington and Baghdad. Certainly the embassy has reduced its consular functions, because of the protest there. Those scenes were remarkable frankly to see the U.S. embassy under that kind of onslaught over the past week or so. So Iraq certainly caught in the middle here. Probably knows where its long- term destiny lies. That is complicated in itself, because Iran's influence is unpopular in parts of Iraqi population. But really here, I think many in Iraq will be looking to see in ways they could tap down the possibility for response inside's Iraq's territory. They could further harm the position of the Iraqi government and Iraqi civilians here as well, but quite extraordinary frankly how this has changed the calculus in the region in just a matter of hours.

[03:35:17]

GEORGE HOWELL, CNN ANCHOR: And the big question at this point if a conflict does happen, does it draw in other nations, Russia, China? We've already seen a response from China given what happened. Is there a concern this could spiral out of control, Nick?

PATON WALSH: It could spiral out of control certainly. I think Russia's involvement highly unlikely. China's involvement highly unlikely. India's involvement equally unlikely as well the U.S.'s allies in the region, Saudi Arabia, they will be reluctant, they always had been frankly to get involved too heavily in over military confrontation with a power the size of Iran.

They struggled to win the war in Yemen. Israel, yes, has always long I think, strategize the possibility of moment where it had to finally confront Iran particularly if it wanted to become the second military power in the Middle East Israel already having a nuclear weapon. So many, different possible allies that could be targeted by Iran, who may be drawn into a broader response against Iran. Iran is in a minority, be no mistake about that Shia country, (inaudible) Persian fused itself as a different part of the Middle East so some degree.

And so, they have, have a discipline and the calculus of the minority rather the not so slightly more sprawling response, the sort of semi majority other nations in the Middle East tend to have towards broader challenges. But here they face completely unprecedented moment where they have to find some way of proportionately or disproportionately responding to a military super power, who have killed one of their military leading figures without actually having the military might to do that. So, a complex challenge for a politician on Tehran right now, to seem strong whilst recognizing probably they are actually -- some degree weak in the military sense against the U.S.

HOWELL: Nick Paton Walsh, you know, live for us there in London. Thank you very much. Let's now bring in CNN journalist, Ramin Mostaghim, he is in Iran, the Capital City of Tehran. It is good to have you with us there. What are you hearing from officials?

RAMIN MOSTAGHIM, CORRESPONDENT, L.A. TIMES: I hear officials showing they're outraged and they are threatening American forces that should wait for the detrimental attack, the revenge for the blood of the martyr Soleimani. But at the same time now the Supreme National Security Council is having a session behind the curtain to decide what to do and what should come next. George, we can say that in Iran now they are thinking about the morning ceremony. This is the first day of three day's morning service and while we are talking Friday prayer is going on and the sermons are delivered, and post Friday prayer -- there is -- I mean nationwide rallies in condemnations of this assassination and let's see what will happen, George?

HOWELL: I mean, one question that many people are asking, you know, as far as people talking about this today, hearing word about it as they go to prayer, what is the sentiment of people as they hear this?

MOSTAGHIM: The sentiments of the pro-ruling establishment is revenge, revenge, revenge because they feel humiliated and they think their hero has been killed in the country, nothing confronting America. Just in neighboring country Iraq. So it is very, very -- I mean upsetting for them, and they want revenge. But this revenge may be not translated into official revenge taking. I think as I see the sentiment among the officials is self-restraint. And among the maps and the different parts of society, Friday prayers is revenge, George.

HOWELL: Thank you so much for your time. We'll stay in touch with you again there in Tehran as you hear reactions from people as they hear the news of what happened. Thank you.

ALLEN: Thanks Ramin. Just ahead hear the risks the U.S. now faces after confirming it killed Iran's top military commander. That's coming up.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[03:40:00]

HOWELL: This breaking news just into CNN, I want to read this from the State Department urging U.S. citizens to depart Iraq immediately. It goes on to say due to heightened tensions in Iraq and the region we urge U.S. citizens to depart Iraq immediately due to Iranian backed militia attacks at the U.S. embassy compound. All consular operations are suspended. U.S. citizens should not approach the embassy. That is just crossing from the U.S. State Department.

ALLEN: An anticipated announcement after what has happened. We're also getting more reaction to the U.S. military strike that killed the Iranian military commander. Iraq's Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi saying moments ago such an operation on Iraqi soil is a flagrant violation of Iraqi sovereignty and a dangerous escalation that could ignite war.

HOWELL: President Trump ordered a military strike near the airport in Baghdad to take out the leader of Iran's elite Quds Forces. The strike also killed a senior member of the Iranian backed popular mobilization forces. That is the same group who supporters tried to storm the U.S. embassy in Baghdad earlier this week.

ALLEN: Iran's spiritual leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei says harsh revenge awaits the criminals who killed Soleimani and Foreign Minister Javad Zarif blasted what he calls the brutality and stupidity of the United States, vowing resistance in the region would only grow stronger.

HOWELL: CNN's Ryan Browne has details now from the Pentagon.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

RYAN BROWNE, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY: The Pentagon confirming late Thursday night that the U.S. military had conducted a strike that killed General Qasem Soleimani, the leader of the Iran's Islamic revolutionary guard corps, an organization that the U.S. has blamed for multiple deaths in Iraq and in an increasing number of attacks against the U.S. in recent weeks and months.

[03:45:04]

The U.S. military taking this strike in Baghdad international airport, two vehicles were destroyed in the strike according to the Iraqi military. The U.S. saying Soleimani was targeted both because as being the head of a U.S. designated foreign terrorist organization, but also because he was actively planning attacks against U.S. personnel in the region and had been behind a recent rocket attack by Iranian linked proxy group that had killed an American contractor and recent demonstrations that attempted to breach the outer perimeter of the American embassy in Baghdad.

The U.S. military very much casting this as a defensive action. Secretary of Defense, Mark Esper spoke to reporters prior to news of the strike telling them that the game had changed with regards to Iran and its proxies and that the U.S. would act preemptively to defend American lives and interests in the region. This strike very much an example of that.

And now President Trump had already ordered additional U.S. military forces to the region in the wake of the events involving the embassy and the rocket attacks. Some 100 marines were sent to the embassy, hundreds of more paratroopers were deployed to Kuwait to respond in the event of a crisis, so those troops could be called in if the situation escalates.

Many believe that Iran will likely retaliate for this action. Given General Soleimani's stature within the Iranian military, but all will be watching what happens next in this region. But the seriousness of the situation and of this development cannot be understated. Ryan Browne, the Pentagon.

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HOWELL: Let's talk more about this now with Samantha Vinograd. Samantha, a CNN national security analyst, joining this hour from Washington D.C. It's good to have you with us.

SAMANTHA VINOGRAD, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY ANALYST: Good evening.

HOWELL: First of all, given that we now have U.S. confirmation. What are the implications moving forward, how do you see this playing out?

VINOGRAD: Well, let's start with the near term implications because this is what should have been thought about before this operation began. There is a near term serious security risk to American citizens in Iraq throughout the region and frankly around the world. The IRGC and the Quds Force retains what the will and capability to really operationalize its proxies around the world. And at this juncture, our embassies are under increased risk as well as American citizens more generally. My understanding is the State Department is working on embassies security as we speak.

I do not know whether any of that planning took place ahead of this operation. But there is a heightened security risk that is the first order of business. More broadly Iran will consider this an act of war that has implication in Iraq. Iranian backed proxies to have a heavy presence in the Iraqi government, in Iraqi security forces and this could really lead to a real turn in public opinion against the American presence in Iraq.

In Iran, this will be a rallying cry for the regime. Soleimani was deeply popular in Iraq and very close with Khamenei. And so with Iran, this will have an impact and we'll of course have to wait and see how Russia and China respond. Russia and China are Iran's patrons, it's allies and will likely side with Iran. So, this is really a terrifying moment for anybody with any security background while we wait to see what Iran's next move is. Even if Iran solely retaliates in a tit for tat fashion, we could be looking at an Iranian attempt to assassinate a senior U.S. military commander.

HOWELL: You talk about how the responses could play out, Samantha. And look, Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, the Persian Gulf certainly theaters that Iran has influence. But here's the situation here. This has been a proxy war between the United States and Iran in these various places. But now with Iraq seeming to be center stage, what happens now?

VINOGRAD: Well, I think this just transitioned from a proxy war into a direct conflict. United States just confirmed that they took -- that we took direct military action against a senior member of the Iranian military. We are now past the point of no return with respect to a proxy war versus a more direct confrontation.

And that really means that the Iranians will continue to consider, frankly, American military service members fair game. And in addition earlier this week Iranian backed proxies attacked U.S. diplomats. So again all Americans are at increased risk right now.

And my real question is, you know, this is president who doesn't really rely on intelligence for much and really shoots from the hip. And so it is unclear that he thoroughly considered or even understands the repercussions and really did a thorough cost-benefit analysis before making this decision.

HOWELL: You know, we again have the U.S. confirmation now, but what are you hearing from your sources, and what are you reading between the tea leaves here about whether this, you know, was really thought out or there was preparation made in advance for this in?

[03:50:15]

VINOGRAD: Well, again I understand that the State Department is working as we speak to shore up embassy security. I would imagine that the intelligence community is working in lock step with the State Department and the Department Of Defense to identify threats through American throughout the region and again even Americans globally. But we have not seen an indication that there was contingency planning ahead of this operation.

Someone who's very close to the president, media personality Sean Hannity called into his own show earlier this evening in the United States and said that the president acted quickly in the sense of authorizing this attack. Acting quickly in these situations absent months of thorough planning to deal with the aftershocks of such a significant operation is not a good thing.

Speed is not your friend in these situations unless again you've done very thorough planning and have resources ready to deploy to protect Americans, to protect our allies. And the Intelligence Community has been monitoring threats in a consistent fashion both before, during and after this kind of operation.

HOWELL: Samantha Vinograd, giving us perspective here from Washington, D.C. We appreciate it. Thank you.

VINOGRAD: Thank you.

HOWELL: And on the back end of that, I just want to reiterate the breaking news here this hour, the State Department urging U.S. citizens to depart Iraq immediately, saying that consular operations are suspending -- suspended, urging people not to approach the embassy.

ALLEN: More of our breaking news coverage right after this.

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[03:55:00]

HOWELL: All right, welcome back. The breaking news this hour. Iran is vowing revenge for a U.S. rocket attack that has killed its most revered military leader, Qasem Soleimani. This happened early Friday morning near the Baghdad international airport. You see the image there of where this happened. That strike also killing a senior member of the Iranian backed popular mobilization forces. That's the same group who supporters tried to storm the U.S. embassy in Baghdad earlier this week.

ALLEN: The Pentagon said it launched the attack on Soleimani on the direct orders of President Trump. It blames the Iranian general for the deaths of hundreds of American troops over many years and says it strike was a defensive action.

HOWELL: We're hearing from Iran's spiritual leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who says that harsh revenge awaits the criminals who killed Soleimani. And the Foreign Minister Javad Zarif blasted what he called the brutality and stupidity of the U.S. vowing that resistance in the region would only grow stronger.

ALLEN: We will continue our breaking news coverage here at CNN. We thank you for watching. I'm Natalie Allen.

HOWELL: And I'm George Howell. Early Start is next.

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