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Feds Warn of Terror, Cyber Threat in New Intelligence Bulletin; Mystery Deepens into Ukrainian Jet Crash in Iran; Iran Sent Multiple Messages to U.S. That Attacks Were the Extent of Its Response; Pelosi Says War Powers Resolution Will Come to Floor Tomorrow. Aired 3:30-4p ET

Aired January 08, 2020 - 15:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[15:30:00]

BROOKE BALDWIN, CNN HOST: In the last hour Nick we learned that the FBI and Homeland Security sent out this bulletin to law enforcement throughout the U.S. warning of cyber-attacks or other terror attacks on American soil. What do you think could be a likely next step from Iran?

NICK PATON WALSH, SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: In just the hours after this initially occurred, the killing of Qasem Soleimani, I heard from a Western intelligence official exactly that, that possibly proxies might be used but particularly cyber attacks were a risk because the Iranians have invested heavily in state and non-state ways of doing that.

That could really bring trouble to the U.S. homeland, make the consequence of this felt directly to American civilians and citizens. Could take many forms -- infrastructure, banking systems. We've even had confusion about whether or not a Kuwaiti statement today about the U.S. withdrawing from that particular Gulf nation was true, it appeared to be put down to a hack. So there's a strong possibility that could be used as well.

And remember, too, Brooke, just because this big military standoff appears to have come to an end now, doesn't suddenly mean that the U.S. and Iran are friends. Those decades of loathing don't go away. The Iranians probably still want a blood price paid, and we may see that slowly in the months ahead.

It may be the more traditional response many analysts expected here in the region, proxies, allies trying something against U.S. troops, U.S. diplomatic facilities. Everyone really, I think expects something like possibly in the months ahead, and after that, too, the fact that in the past Iran had played the long game.

They've sought revenge outside of the region in Argentina even, other countries in the world to prosecute their particular need for some kind of retaliation. That's still entirely possible as well. Very important but just because Donald Trump has had a moment here to draw a line under this, interestingly saying Iran's stepping down just after they've launched a substantial attack. He stepped away from war, that doesn't mean that Iran is also playing the short game. They don't live by cable news cycle. They live over years certainly, and they may well look in the months or years ahead to upset Trump's re-election chances by targeting U.S. facilities here in the Middle East and blaming that on his rash action killing Qasem Soleimani, justified as that may have been -- Brooke.

BALDWIN: Wow, wow. I know that is their M.O., but let's hope you're wrong, let's hope you're wrong. Nick Paton Walsh in Beirut. Nick, thank you very much, all your knowledge in the region.

Coming up next, we'll take a closer look at how the Iranian people see how they view this back and forth with the U.S. And of course all of this going on as the mystery deepens over that deadly crash of a Ukrainian jet in Iran. And now U.S. intelligence agencies are investigating.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[15:35:00]

BALDWIN: So the same day Iranian missiles attacked U.S. air bases in Iraq, there was this Ukrainian Airlines jet that crashed into Tehran killing all 176 people on board. The Boeing 737 plane, which was not carrying any Americans, was headed from Tehran to Kiev. It crashed minutes after taking off.

And Ukrainian officials say the cause is still unknown. Investigators are looking into a range of possibilities, and they have halted all flights into Iranian air space.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

YEVHENII DYKHNE, PRESIDENT, UKRAINE INTERNATIONAL AIRLINES (through translator): Again, this is the information that we cannot comment on because it has not come from any official sources. We have provided you information about the technical state of the plane and our best employees were on board.

The company's not entitled to create its own version of what happened. Now a special committee for investigations in the field of civil aviation is being created. The committee has come to some conclusions and only their conclusions can be commented on as versions.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: The flight data recorders have been recovered, but Iran says it will not hand them over to Boeing or the United States. But CNN has learned from a U.S. official that U.S. intel is, quote, unquote, taking a look at the crash. What are they looking for? Signs of an explosion, or for signs of a heat signature that could indicate if a missile was fired.

Miles O'Brien is our CNN aviation analyst. He's with me now. And Miles, I mean just given the events of the last 24 hours that the plane crashes in Iran, that it's going to of all places Ukraine, and that it's Boeing, where do we even begin?

MILES O'BRIEN, CNN AVIATION ANALYST: Lots of cross currents to sort out, Brooke, for sure. But if we just look at it specifically as a crash investigator would, some clarity comes to mind. First of all, we have an aircraft that took off and clearly was on fire in the air. That's documented by some video that was captured from the ground.

What could cause that? Well, uncontained engine failure could, in fact, cause a fire, but these aircraft, the 737, 800 are designed to withstand that. As a matter of fact, they can withstand a dual engine failure and still fly on or glide on more accurately.

So the next question is, well, did the crew report a problem? No, there was not a single radio communication back to the control tower or to the approach controllers. So what happened was rather extensive, rather instantaneous, leads you to an explosion.

When you look at the debris field, clearly the aircraft broke up in flight. There's lots of little pieces, and if you look closely at the pieces, you'll see evidence of what is essentially shrapnel. And the question will be as they look into this, was it potentially an explosion from the outside.

[15:40:00]

Which is to say a missile as you alluded to, or could it have been an explosion from the inside? But either way in the context of everything we've been talking about in the world, it's difficult to come up with a scenario that doesn't involve foul play in some manner.

BALDWIN: And what about the black boxes, Miles? I mean Iran says that the U.S. will not get the black boxes. Tell me why the U.S. should get them.

O'BRIEN: Well, that's part of United Nations Charter. A lot of it is custom as well. Basically, when it comes to an aircraft investigation, the country that produces the airliner, in this case Boeing, is allowed to participate in the investigation as is the National Transportation Safety Board.

But a lot of this is kind of soft language and certainly in the context of what's going on in the world between the United States and Iran, you would not expect that kind of cooperation. It is important, however, that people with the appropriate expertise and perhaps objectivity in this case get a look at this data.

Given the long-term history between Iran and say France, that might be a likely place for that flight data recorder and the cockpit voice recorder to go to be properly analyzed. If it doesn't come out of Iran, it will be difficult to know exactly what happened because there will be a lot of skepticism about whatever is reported.

BALDWIN: We'll follow that investigation so closely, Miles O'Brien, you are the best. Thank you very much.

Just in, more breaking news on the clash with Iran. We're now being told what Iran communicated to the United States after these retaliatory strikes against a base that housed American forces. Stand by for news.

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[15:45:00]

BALDWIN: More breaking news coming in this afternoon on this confrontation with Iran. We have just learned that Iran has been communicating with the United States that there will be no more retaliation to the killing of General Soleimani. So let's get right to CNN national security reporter Kylie Atwood. And Kylie, what exactly did Iran say?

KYLIE ATWOOD, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY REPORTER: Yes, so we are learning that last night as U.S. officials were busy accessing, looking over, trying to figure out what was happening with regard to these Iranian missile strikes, they were also getting messages from Iran, and this is according to an administration official reporting from my colleague Pamela Brown.

These messages were all the same coming from Iran through at least three back channels. We know one of them is Switzerland, and they were saying the same thing, essentially saying that we are done. That these missile launches, this attack tonight is the extent of the Iranian retaliation for the U.S. killing, the strike that took out Qasem Soleimani.

It is really interesting because this intelligence, these notes from Iran were coming in as the Trump administration was formulating its response, how it would respond to these strikes that were targeting locations in Iraq where U.S. forces were based.

And now the U.S. according to this source did send messages back to Iran, and as part of those messages back, they said that they were equally as worried about Iranian proxy groups as they were by actions that were taken by the Iranian state.

So this is really interesting to note that as last night, the Trump administration was trying to forge its way forward, figure out what they were going to say. We saw the Foreign Minister of Iran saying that the attack was over, but they were also getting these messages through back channels. And that was something that was really important as they forged their way forward and as President Trump decided what he was going to say in that press conference this morning -- Brooke.

BALDWIN: Kylie, thank you very much for that. Let's get some analysis. Trita Parsi is Executive Vice President for the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. He's also the founder and former President of the National Iranian American Council, and he's also the author of "Losing an Enemy, Obama, Iran And the Triumph of Diplomacy." And so Trita, thank you coming back.

I mean your reaction to what Kylie was just reporting out, and why should the United States believe Iran?

TRITA PARSI, FOUNDER AND FORMER PRESIDENT, NATIONAL IRANIAN AMERICAN COUNCIL: Well, I think it's actually very interesting, prior to all of this, the Iranians publicly stated that they will respond directly, not through proxies, that they will respond. That this is not something they would just let go, and that they would target military facilities.

All of those different three things that they signaled they did. And I think that they did that deliberately to be able to establish the sense that what they're now saying they will also do. Which was that if the United States continued the escalation, then the Iranians would start targeting American bases throughout the region.

Now, this is not about trusting them or not. But it's very important to be able to have these back channels in order to be able to better calculate what the U.S.'s next step should be. And the Trump administration concluded that this was a way out for the Iranians, and the Iranians were also offering Trump a way out in order to deescalate.

The problem is this, as what was just reported, that just because the Iranians said that they're done does not mean that other groups feel the same way, and whether they actually are under that complete control of the Iranians. Because remember, the United States took out a lot of -- 40 or 50 of those militia men who are from Iraq.

So they're not just as simple as being complete proxies of Iran and only following orders from Iran, so they may actually act on their own even without the consent of the Iranians. Whether the Trump administration can stop that or not may not just be something that they have to do with Iran. It has to do with their own policy in Iraq.

[15:50:03]

BALDWIN: Right, and that is the fear and no one knows when that would potentially happen. Trita, stay with me, any moment now we're waiting to hear from the Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. He's expected to come out to those microphones and brief the media after briefing lawmakers on the intelligence that led to that Soleimani strike. So we'll listen to that.

Also we are watching the markets. We are minutes from the closing bell. Stocks back up, oil prices back down as the U.S. and Iran seem to be deescalating. We'll be right back.

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[15:55:00]

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Iran can be a great country. Peace and stability cannot prevail in the Middle East as long as Iran continues to foment violence, unrest, hatred and war. The civilized world must send a clear and unified message to the Iranian regime. Your campaign of terror, murder, mayhem will not be tolerated any longer. It will not be allowed to go forward.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: President Trump there just this morning with a stern warning to Iran today despite what appears to be a de-escalation between the two sides. We're also getting new pictures from inside of the situation room last night as this all went down. See the President there at the head of the table with everyone from the Vice President to the Secretary of State, the Defense Secretary.

We are also getting word that Speaker Nancy Pelosi will bring the war powers resolution to the House floor tomorrow. That is aimed at limiting the President's military actions against Iran.

And Trita Parsi is back with me, and Trita, as we wait to hear from the Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, I was just curious your take on how Iranians are interpreting the Iraqi air base attack. Certainly, showcasing their military might with the precision missiles and how they would react to the President's message today?

PARSI: Well, I think the Iranian public as we have seen from the images, there is an unprecedented moment of unity which is really surprised a lot of people in the sense that just weeks ago, a lot of people were out there protesting the government.

But because of this assassination, Trump's action actually allowed the Iranian government to move much closer to the public in general. It is not a manifestation of the public supporting the government as much as I think it is a manifestation of them feeling that this was a violation of their dignity and their sovereignty and as a result, this is a nationalistic expression that you're seeing rather than necessarily an expression of the support of the government.

And I think ultimately that is not in the U.S.'s interests to do something that actually has this type of the rallying-around-the-flag effect inside of Iran, and if there is one thing that the President has done that does this perhaps even more so is that the statement that he would be targeting cultural sites.

Now he's of course walked back from having said that, but the mere fact that it was even stated is something that is going to really play into the favor of the government in Iran.

BALDWIN: We were talking about before the commercial break and you were saying that this really may not really be over, you know, you were talking about Iran and their M.O., Iranian proxies, other proxies in other parts of the region perhaps in calculated attacks down the road, and that's really the variable here.

We have heard from the FBI here in the homeland, FBI, Department Of Homeland Security warning of terror threats that Iran could pose in the U.S. in this joint bulletin sent to law enforcement around the country. And in one of the things they mentioned is the cyber threat. Can you talk about Iran's capabilities in terms of cyber?

PARSI: Yes, the Iranians seem to have a capability in the cybersphere that essentially makes them a superpower. They're obviously not as capable as the United States or Russia, but they are not at a level where their perhaps conventional military is.

So in the cyber, you have a much more level playing field. The discrepancy between the U.S.'s capabilities and power in the military versus that of Iran is of course massive, but in cyber, it is not as massive. Now, I don't think that that would be a sole response that they will use.

But I would like to say another thing that I think is really important. There's been a de-escalatory move from both sides now, but we're far from actually having true de-escalation. To have true de- escalation, right now, both Iran and the United States should take advantage of the fact that there are several countries that have stepped forward and offered to help mediate and facilitate a dialogue between the two, countries such as Oman, Switzerland and Japan who have in the past have successfully played that role.

It really is upon both countries to take those opportunities, now make the most of them, because this could very well have led to a full- scale war and that would have been devastating both the United States and to Iran but more so to Iraq and the other countries in the region who actually most of them don't have anything to do with this.

BALDWIN: Yes. Trita Parsi, your insight in all of this is invaluable. Thank you so much for coming on, I appreciate it.

PARSI: Thank you.

BALDWIN: And thank you all for being with me. I'm Brooke Baldwin here in New York we're going to sent it to Washington now for more of this continuing coverage on this current situation regarding Iran and Iraq. "THE LEAD" with Jake Tapper starts right now.

JAKE TAPPER, CNN HOST: Is Iran backing down, or are they just taking the fight underground?

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