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Iran Fires Ballistic Missiles At U.S. Forces In Iraq; Ukrainian Flight Crashes After Takeoff In Tehran; Iran Fires Ballistic Missiles at U.S. Forces in Iraq; Australian Bushfires. Aired 1-2a ET

Aired January 08, 2020 - 01:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[01:00:00]

ANNOUNCER: This is CNN Breaking News.

MICHAEL HOLMES, CNN INTERNATIONAL ANCHOR: Hello and welcome to our viewers here in the United States and all around the world. I'm Michael Holmes continuing our breaking news coverage of the Iranian missile strikes on U.S. forces in Iraq. Let's get right to what we know at this hour.

The Pentagon says Iran launched more than a dozen ballistic missiles at two bases in Iraq housing U.S. troops. There are no initial reports of casualties, but the assessment is ongoing. Missiles hit the al-Asad Air Base and also a base in Irbil as well as in the north of the country in Kurdistan. Iran's Foreign Minister calls it a proportionate response days after the U.S. airstrike that took out the Iranian general Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad.

Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said he has warned U.S. presidents in the past, "if you hit, you get hit back."

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ALI KHAMENEI, SUPREME LEADER OF IRAN (through translator): They know that if they get themselves involved in a confrontation with us, you get entangled in a military way. They will get their feet trapped. They might harm us, but they will harm themselves many times more and they realize that.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: The U.S. Secretary of State and Defense brief President Donald Trump at the White House late on Tuesday. President Trump later tweeting "all is well," and said he would make a statement on Wednesday. And in the midst of all of this Qassem Soleimani was laid to rest on Wednesday morning on local time, hours later than initially planned. That's due in part to a stampede that happened at the massive funeral procession which reportedly killed at least 56 people.

We have our correspondents all across the region and in the United States. CNN Correspondent Jomana Karadsheh in Baghdad, White House Correspondent Jeremy Diamond is in Washington, Pentagon Reporter Ryan Browne at the Defense Department, Journalists Ramin Mostaghim is in Tehran, CNN's International Diplomatic Editor Nic Robertson joins us from Riyadh, and CNN International Security Editor Nick Paton Walsh is in Beirut, CNN Correspondent Oren Liebermann in Haifa, Israel.

All right, well, Jomana, let's start with you there in Baghdad. And again, Iraq finds itself the battlefield in a battle it's not part of. What's the take from where you are?

JOMANA KARADSHEH, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, you know, Michael, that has been the concern. This is what we have been hearing from Iraqi officials in recent days that they are being caught in the middle between these two allies. They say that they have been really worried about the situation, how things have been unfolding over the past few months as tensions have been rising between their two allies, Iran and the United States.

And now, you know, we heard from the Iraqi Prime Minister just a few days ago saying that they have been left with no option at this point, but to ask U.S. forces to leave the country. You had that parliamentary vote, the government looking at ways of asking coalition forces to leave because he says they are concerned that it's not only tensions now, this is turning into a confrontation and they are worried that their country is going to be the battlefield where this will all play out, that Iraq once again an arena for international and regional powers to settle scores, and it is the Iraqis who end up paying the price.

Right now, we haven't heard from the Iraqi government. Any reaction to these latest developments, the Iraqi -- we haven't been able to reach Iraqi officials but we do know that everyone here is on a state of high alert. We've been told by a military official that U.S. and Iraqi forces are actively patrolling around their bases.

There are -- there's, of course, patrolling the skies too with drones and attack helicopters. Our team a short time ago, saw an AC-130 attack gunship over Baghdad, over central Baghdad, which course includes the green zone, Michael.

HOLMES: All right, Jomana, thanks so much there on the spot in Baghdad. Let's go to Jeremy Diamond in Washington. No address to the nation as was initially thought a little bit earlier on, but there was a tweet. So what are we to make of it? What could tomorrow bring when the fog clears?

JEREMY DIAMOND, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: There was indeed a tweet, Michael. And unlike the fire and brimstone, the bellicose rhetoric that we saw from the President's in recent days after that strike that he ordered killing the Iranian general Qassem Soleimani, now we see from the president, "all is well, so far so good." An optimistic tone it appears from the president in the wake of this Iranian retaliation, a dozen missiles that struck two bases, two Iraqi bases housing U.S. troops in Iraq.

[01:05:14]

The President though from that tweet, you can tell that he's clearly focused on this issue of casualties, making clear that casualty and damage assessment is still underway, but saying that so far, it appears to be so good. The President, though, of course, did draw this red line a couple of days ago as it relates to Iranian retaliation and he wasn't just talking about American casualties.

In fact, the President said that if Iran retaliated and targeted American interests in the region, that in and of itself would warrant this massive American military retaliation which of course the President has been threatening for a couple of days.

For now, though, it appears the president is holding off. He did, however, tee up and address to the nation tomorrow. That is when he will be making a statement on Wednesday morning. Michael?

HOLMES: All right, Jeremy Diamond in Washington, thanks so much. Let's stay in D.C. and go to the Pentagon. That's where we find our Ryan Browne. And Jeremy alluded this too. The President did say if Iran attacks an American base or any American, we will be sending some of that brand new, beautiful equipment their way without hesitation. That didn't sound like a red line. A base was hit, what's the posture of the Pentagon?

RYAN BROWNE, CNN PENTAGON REPORTER: Well, Michael, it's an interesting question here. The Pentagon had been ramping up its military presence in the region for months adding some 14,000 troops over the last several months ever since those initial Iranian linked efforts to attack a shipping industry in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, and as well as an alleged attack against Saudi oil facility.

So they're already fairly postured to respond if ordered. And we've heard no indication or any sign that there's been any kind of response initiated at this point in time. We're told that the military troops on the ground there had some advanced warning prior to the launching of these missiles, prior to their striking the base, and so we're able to take cover in time.

We're also told that the missiles actually struck areas of the base that are not typically populated by U.S. forces, reducing the risk of casualty, not clear whether that was intentional or just error firing on the part of the Iranians. But as of right now, we don't believe there is any significant shift in the U.S. military's position there. However, given its build up in recent weeks and months, it could do something very quickly if so ordered.

HOLMES: Yes, indeed. Ryan Browne at the -- at the Pentagon, thanks so much. I want to go now to Tehran and speak with Ramin Mostaghim who is there. And some people, Ramin, have seen this as a measured response that Iran made its point, same message and once this to end. What's your sense?

RAMIN MOSTAGHIM, CNN JOURNALIST: As far as we see, the high-ranking officials including leadership, they all say it was a proportionate reciprocity operation, tit for tat. And from their perspective, there is no motivation to go further. But they threatened, for example, general -- lieutenant general or Major General Mohammad Bagheri, the head of Armed Staff said that if America tries to go further and do some wickedness, then there will be more (INAUDIBLE) response to that. So, at this moment they try to make sure that there will no -- there

will be no more reciprocity. That is the last one according to their narrations. It was harsh response, so let's announce it to the end of the game. So in this part of the world, at least in Tehran, we don't hear any things like bellicose rhetoric anymore. They just want to jubilate this weak -- what they call a victory and their own harsh response to the American wickedness as they say. So that's it, Michael.

HOLMES: Yes. And they say that if the U.S. response to this, they will respond as well. Ramin Mostaghim in Tehran, thank you. Nic Robertson in Riyadh in Saudi Arabia, Nic, you're a diplomatic editor, you know, these missiles, obviously came from Iran, not from a proxy. So they weren't looking for plausible deniability, was upfront in that sense. Is it your sense from the Iranian targeting and the Trump reaction so far that there is room for everyone to step back?

NIC ROBERTSON: The Iranians are creating an off-ramp here for sure in the tensions. That's what we've just heard from reports there in Tehran. Look at the facts on the ground. I've been to Al-Asad Air Base in the past. It is one of the most remote of the airbases the United States uses in Iraq, remote from civilian population. So it's also a massive, sprawling base.

[01:10:16]

If you're in Tehran, and you're calculating that you want to hit somewhere, and you're trying to avoid actually creating big U.S. casualties, a large airbase like Al-Assad is -- would be a good choice of target to use. And you're also, because it's removed from civilian populations, minimizing the possibilities of unintended collateral damage. So a relatively safe target.

Nevertheless, it sends a very big message to the region here. And this is how we read in Riyadh and some of the other capitals in the Gulf that Iran under sanctions has been able to build these sophisticated long-ranged ballistic missiles that it feels confident of throwing many hundreds of miles into this airbase.

On the calculation, if what we're seeing and what we're hearing from Tehran is correct, on the calculation, they're not actually going to massively anger the United States into responding by inflicting large U.S. casualties. So the message here will be one that has not been seen in the region before, Iran firing these ballistic missiles and an offensive capability. So that will be a very clear message that they've been able to build these under sanctions that they -- that they are able and capable to use them.

But they does seem and it does feel as if an off-ramp is being created here. Of course, the Iranian is now putting the ball in President Trump's hands to playback. And so far, he doesn't look like he's going to smash the ball back in their court.

HOLMES: Yes, very good point showing capabilities under sanction. Nic, thanks so much. Nic Robertson there in Riyadh. And joining me now from Los Angeles, Dahlia Dassa Kaye who is the Director of the Center for Middle East Public Policy, and from Monterey, California, CNN Military Analysts, Lieutenant General Mark Heartley.

Dalia, let's start with you. Speak to the significance that this was direct from Iranian territory rather than a symmetrical tactics that some expected or a proxy acting on behalf, a very direct message.

DALIA DASSA KAYE, DIRECTOR, CENTER FOR MIDDLE EAST PUBLIC POLICY: Yes, I think it's quite significant. This is a major escalation. It is now a direct U.S.-Iranian military conflict even though it's taking place in Iraq, and Iraqi officials will be likely paying the cost for this. But it is a significant step in the escalatory pattern we've been seeing since over the summer, which I think raises the cost and the public nature of this is also particularly concerning in terms of the ability to de-escalate.

HOLMES: Yes, good point. There was a comparatively calm tweet from the president we're just discussing. We'll put up for people if they missed it. "All is well. Missiles launched from Iran to military bases located in Iraq. Assessment of casualties and damages taking place now. So far so good." And then goes on to say, we have the most powerful and well-equipped military anywhere in the world. We'll make a statement tomorrow.

General Mark Hertling, a couple of days ago, the President was saying if Iran attacks any American base or American, we will be sending some of that brand-new beautiful equipment over their way. That is what we were just discussing earlier. It sounds like a red line. But do you think he's stepping back with that latest tweet? What's your take?

GEN. MARK HERTLING (RET.), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: It's pretty obvious that he's stepping back, Michael. The other thing I'd point out is all is not well for the Iraqis or the Kurdish elements within Iraq, both who have had basis hit within their area. This is sending a message by the Iranians, I believe, not only to the United States, but to others who will continue tribute to the United States' actions on any attack against Iran.

So I think this is really the first tranche. It is an opportunity for both sides to reevaluate, do some analysis, and perhaps step back. It might even be an opportunity for the United States to start up diplomatic actions again with Iraq -- or excuse me, with Iran. But it certainly is a message to the Iraqi government and in fact, puts them in a very difficult position, in my view.

HOLMES: And sticking with you for a moment, Mark. Tehran says it's a warning, we'll launch more destructive attacks if the Americans retaliate this time around. I mean, it's retaliation begets retaliation and it becomes a cycle and a very risky one, doesn't it?

HERTLING: It does. And when you take a look at the potential for Iranian action, it is both over and in some cases, very nuanced, and covert. They can start with a tranche of 12 missiles shot at two different airbases. And again, that goes back to what message are they trying to send? If the -- if the backing down doesn't occur now, Michael, they have other means that they can use this certainly we do as well the United States does to begin a proxy war within the area of the Middle East and beyond. [01:15:22]

There is the potential not only for this direct action by Iran, but also some direct action by their proxies throughout the Middle East and variety of different countries. By my count, there's at least eight where they can conduct operation using military forces that are beholden to Iran.

But there's also the continued problem with the potential for asymmetric warfare in the case of either economic warfare in the Strait of Hormuz, or even cyber warfare directly against the United States. All of which we have defensive measures to counter, but at the same time, this could become very problematic very quickly.

HOLMES: And you know, it should be pointed out too that in the past, Iran has taken its time with retaliation and has sort of spaced it out over time on many different occasions. Dalia, what do you think the Iranian calculus is? I mean, if they wanted to hit in a major way, they could have done something very different.

They would have known that these missiles would have been detected. People could most likely most of them hopefully take cover. But they needed to respond to the death of Soleimani to save face, but not hit too hard.

KAYE: Yes. I think it's clear if the reports are true that the casualties were minimal or nonexistent, that this was a calibrated attack to send that message. The public nature of it was quite unusual and that is concerning. But they do have a number of other tools as was just said, that could take place over time.

We've seen this in the case of Hezbollah retaliating against Israel. They can take their time. The attacks can be in -- come in different forms, through assassinations, terrorism's all over. It could be international and throughout the region. And I think there's reason to be concerned that while the pause that looks like is occurring tonight is welcome. And hopefully, this can lead to some de- escalation, or at least secession of hostilities.

The original pressures that led to this escalation are still in place. The Iranians are still facing this maximum pressure campaign, it led to lashing out over the summer. They're reverting back to nuclear activities that are extremely worrying, not yet completely leaving the nuclear agreement, but where we still have these problems in place. So none of this solves that ultimate problem and the concern that we ultimately are not certain what the US objective is vis-a-vis Iran. So these are -- these are ongoing challenges.

HOLMES: And Dalia, very quickly too, I mean, when you step back and look at the region in the broad picture, I mean, it's pretty scary. I mean, you've got Shiite who are mightily enraged, a lot of the Sunni states in the region are worried about what's going on. ISIS is regrouping, the Kurds feel betrayed, and Iran and Donald Trump are swapping threats by tweet. I mean, when you look at the region more broadly, pessimistic? KAYE: I am actually. I think that this killing of Soleimani, we are ready. We're facing a very, very volatile time in the region. But I think it's significantly escalated tensions to a new level, very unpredictable level where we're facing collateral damage already. The counter-ISIS fight being a major concern, our relationship with the Iraqis, the nuclear issue. The potential for future attacks, it broader targets in the region. Everybody is on edge.

So yes, I'm extremely pessimistic. I'd like to hope that we can use this off-ramp to de-escalate but I think we need to stay vigilant and we cannot be complacent about things really coming down for the long run right now. We're still in a very difficult moment.

HOLMES: And you make the point and it is worth noting the U.S. and NATO have both stopped their training programs in the anti-ISIS training which ISIS must be smiling at that. Dalia Dassa Kaye and Mark Hertling, a pleasure to have you both. Thanks so much for your expertise.

KAYE: Thank you.

HERTLING: Thank you, Michael.

HOLMES: All right, we're going to take a quick break on the program. More on this breaking news story when we return.

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(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

PEDRAM JAVAHERI, CNN INTERNATIONAL METEOROLOGIST: It's CNN weather watch time. I'm Meteorologist Pedram Javaheri. And it is a tale of two stories across the United States where you kind of slice the country in the northern tier of the U.S. seen plenty of wintry weather and plenty of cold temperatures as you expect into the month of January.

Well, further towards the south almost feels spring-like in places. And notice this trend here, in New York City from four degrees down to two degrees in a dramatic warming trend in store going in towards Saturday and Sunday. And frankly, with cloud cover in place, maybe a few light showers but really not a washout of any sort. So milder temperatures with the cloud cover for you to enjoy across the central park there on Saturday and Sunday afternoon.

In Chicago, no complaints when you climb out of five below up to almost 10 degrees there by Thursday afternoon, but the bottom does drop out a little bit going in towards Saturday. You could see some wintry weather mixed in there across the Chicago Metroplex region. And it is around the western U.S. where we go where the activity has been prevalent here. Plenty of cloud cover in recent days, plenty of wintry weather as well across the Pacific Northwest.

And Vancouver B.C., some cloud cover for your Wednesday forecast, six degrees there. Los Angeles, cooling off a little bit. It was into the mid-20s earlier in the week, 19 degrees across the region with mostly sunny skies. And then a little farther towards the south, we go Guatemala City on into Managua, both areas, some windy weather expected but should see some milder temperatures there off towards the west. Highs there around 22 degrees.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: Welcome back everyone. Aside from the Iranian missile strikes on U.S. bases, we're learning that a Boeing 737 passenger plane has crashed in Iran with 176 passengers and crew on board. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky now confirms everyone has been killed in that crash.

The Ukraine Airlines Flight went down minutes after taking off from Tehran's International Airport early on Wednesday. Video from the scene shows the crash light blaze with multiple fires and debris. Iranian reports a technical difficulties cause the plane to go down though that has not been confirmed and there are no other details on that.

Emergency crews continue on the scene. You can see clearly the charred debris strewn across the ground over a wide area. CNN Aviation Correspond Richard Quest joins me now. What do you make of what we know, which is not much? What sorts of technical difficulties leap to mind?

RICHARD QUEST, CNN AVIATION CORRESPONDENT: You got to start pulling this apart in the sense of passing the different parts of flight. I'm not surprised at the amount of fire that there was after the plane came out of the sky. The flight have only been going for about two minutes. The plane supposedly was at about 7,800 feet, having just left Tehran airport when these technical difficulties caused it to crash.

So the plane was just about well, heavily fueled for a long flight in bad weather up to Kiev, and that would have it certainly increased the fire that happened upon the crash. Now, the sort of technical difficulties that would overwhelm a crew at this point of flight, remember, the plane has got in the air, so your initial most dangerous part if you like of takeoff has happened. The plane is flying.

[01:25:04]

But for whatever reason, it does seem to be managing to climb. But then you get these technical difficulties. Some people say they see so an engine on fire. There's always a load of eyewitness reports. Many of which usually proved to be at least misguided in understanding this.

You're looking at an event of engine failure, engine fire, something like that, a failure of some parts of the aircraft that overwhelms the crew so that they can put in place tried and tested measures that would -- that would be putting normally to save the aircraft. That's the sort of thing, Michael, that we're going to be looking at, the investigators will be looking at.

The plane itself, let me just update you, it was a 737 NG, next- generation 800. It was not a max. They're all grounded. It was only nearly three and a half years old, virtually brand new. Ukrainian Airlines, Ukraine International has a good safety record. There's nothing that strikes out or shouts out from either the plane, the airline, so we'll be looking at the flight and the crew.

HOLMES: Yes, it was -- it was interesting. And very quickly, I mean, from the video that we saw, it did appear -- it looked like there was a fire on the way down as well, if you saw that.

QUEST: Yes, it could -- I haven't seen it but that certainly caught with what the eyewitnesses are saying. And then you're looking at an engine fire of some sort. Then once you've got that briefly, once you've got that, the issue is wide overwhelmed the crew because engine fires are well tried and tested for most flight crew on most airlines, and certainly they would have been there. They practice this sort of thing.

So we'll be looking to see what extraneous events made that engine fire so critical that the plane was unable to stay in the air.

HOLMES: All right, Richard Quest, good to have your expertise there, our aviation correspondent there joining us from Beirut. I appreciate it, Richard. Thanks. We have to take another quick break here. More on the breaking news when we come back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[01:31:06]

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MOHAMMAD JAVAD ZARIF, IRANIAN FOREIGN MINISTER: They killed one of our most revered commanders and most senior commanders. And they took responsibility for it.

This is state terrorism. This is an act of aggression against Iran. And it amounts to an armed attack against Iran. And we will respond but we will respond proportionately.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MICHAEL HOLMES, CNN ANCHOR: The rhetoric from Iran pointed in the aftermath of the strikes on the Iraqi bases, Iran's top nuclear negotiator matched President Trump's tweet of the American flag after the drone strike with his own Iranian flag. Trolling, perhaps.

There was also a blunt message tweeted by Iran's minister of telecommunications. Quote, "Get the hell out of our region. #HardRevenge."

CNN's international security editor, Nick Paton Walsh joins us now from Beirut to continue the analysis.

I mean what is your take? Do you think this is a show of Iranian strength, or in some ways a display of some weakness in terms of what they could have done but did not? NICK PATON WALSH, CNN INTERNATIONAL SECURITY EDITOR: It is hard to

know whether Iran calculated this would go off quite so ineffectively or whether it is simply a show that their technology isn't as good as they may have hoped.

Now, we'll never know the inner workings of their thinking, but remember, multiple reports suggested that Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei wanted a military response, wanted something open from Iran's military against U.S. troops. While many other Iranian officials said U.S. troops would be killed, it was essentially -- he seemed to think it would be the military, rather than Iran's proxies and allies across the region who are often way more effective in covert action or less open action, to carry it out.

This is a direct attack, absolutely. You have to probably assess whether or not Iran's military knew, they could guarantee hitting certain places within these bases.

You'll recall their attack against Saudi oil facilities were successful in both had hit, but some of their missiles fell short. So it's not always 100 percent success rate when it comes to that kind of technology.

The time of night they choose, Michael -- as you well know in a military base for U.S. in Iraq, in conflict areas like this, the troops are often asleep or sometimes intense housing units, they are protected by concrete T-walls around. They have bunkers very close nearby in the event that early warning systems kick in. It appears some early warning system did kick in with this.

So a small chance frankly for missiles often to cause devastating damage and this is a direct hit or very close or on they're particular quarters. So it may have been an Iranian calculation that this would be a lot of bangs but not an awful lot of casualties on the American side.

That could be the case, entirely possibly, which lead you to the idea is this simply an off ramp for a U.S.-Iranian confrontation here? Do they hope Donald Trump will seek not to escalate back and everyone can say we'll Iran responded, let's move on to the next thing? Or is it possibly more calculatedly a bid for the Americans to believe that this is the extent of Iranian retaliation. And then at some point down the weeks or months down the line a more traditional, you might say, Iranian proxy or ally response hits U.S. allies or assets somewhere in the region at a later stage when the American posture is more relaxed -- Michael.

HOLMES: Yes. You make a good point, and that is worth exploring. I mean in the past, not necessarily dealing with the U.S., but Iran has spread out it's revenge in both calendar sense and geographical sense. I mean this could well just be phase one, or do you think they really do want to step back?

WALSH: There is no reason to think suddenly that for the remainder of earth Iranian-American relations the Iranians will never hit a U.S. asset or ally at some point in the future. [01:34:58]

WALSH: And so yes, you have seen, you know, years later responses in Argentina, for example, for other things. In other parts of the world, you may possibly see American diplomats, American military being struck in the months or weeks ahead that may be directly tied to this. It may be directly claimed by Iran. Or it may be something distant from Iran, as I say, using a proxy.

You've heard Hassan Nasrallah here in Lebanon make it clear that they think they will be involved in pushing U.S. troops from the region.

But you have to bear in mind, that this first initial response from Iran has been relatively hollow. Now, they may have had an absolute failure to grasp how their technology would fare when faced with American anti-missile systems, American high tech defenses on their highest state of alert, in probably their most fierce area of conflict -- Iraq here.

But that is unlikely, frankly, given how they've seen some of that in Yemen against -- compared to Saudi defenses. There may be a calculation here that's designed, as I say to be something loud that people could see, to satisfy the Supreme Leader's request however informed the Supreme Leader when he suggested it should be a military- military response. Or as I say, it may simply be something designed to lessen their sense of expectation and then something follows in the weeks and months ahead -- Michael.

HOLMES: Nick Paton Walsh in Beirut. Good to have you there. Thanks -- Nick.

And we'll take another quick break. We'll have more on this breaking news story when we return.

[01:36:28]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HOLMES: And welcome back.

More on our breaking news now for you, Iran has fired more than a dozen missiles at Iraqi bases housing U.S. troops, retaliation for the U.S. strike that killed the Iranian general, Qasem Soleimani. So far there are no reports of U.S. or Iraqi casualties.

Our Oren Liebermann is in the port city of Haifa in Israel, one of the places Iran has threatened to attack if the country is bombed.

And, Oren -- I mean Israel often the target of threatening rhetoric from Iran. Really is that back up by action. How is it all being seen there in light of the current escalation?

OREN LIEBERMANN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Michael -- we're here in the city of Haifa. Right behind me at the moment is a wall of fog. But beyond that is the port of Haifa, and just a short distance beyond that is Lebanon, particularly southern Lebanon which is the stronghold of Iran's most powerful proxy in the region, Hezbollah.

And that is where that threat would be directed from, that's where all eyes are at the moment. But there are no -- there is no elevated level of alert. There are civilian restrictions or limitations at this time.

So Israel is being quite calm and quite quiet about all of this, as it has been over the course of past few days. As you pointed out we're used to rhetoric flying back and forth between Israel and Iran. We're used to rhetoric flying back and forth between Israel and Hezbollah. In fact Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has name-checked in the past Qasem Soleimani, as has the Israeli military.

But right now it's really keeping quiet. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has supported U.S. actions but other than that other ministers have been very quiet. And it looks like that's how they want to keep it right now so as not to be seen provoking Iran or Iran's proxies in the region unnecessarily.

At this point, Israel -- and we've heard from strategic analysts here -- Israel sees this as a fight between the U.S. and Iran. And at this point, Israel sees no reason to get involved.

That being said, Netanyahu is speaking today as are Israel's defense minister and Israel's foreign minister. It will be interesting to watch what they have to say.

Netanyahu is of course, expected to back the U.S. and issue a warning against striking Haifa. That would be a standard response. Anything beyond that, Michael -- and we'll certainly look to see what he says and how he directs Israel's policy from here.

HOLMES: Absolutely. Oren Liebermann -- thanks so much there in Haifa, Israel.

We'll take a quick break. When we come back, more on the breaking news.

[01:43:02]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HOLMES: Updating our top story for you now, Iran responded to the U.S. killing of its top commander by firing more than a dozen missiles at bases in Iraq that house U.S. forces. No initial reports of casualties, the assessments though are continuing at this hour.

After a briefing from top officials at the White House, President Trump tweeting quote, "All is well," and said he would make a statement later on Wednesday.

U.S. Senate Republican Lindsey Graham meanwhile spoke with President Trump Tuesday evening and then appeared on Fox News with this message for Iranians.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) SENATOR LINDSEY GRAHAM (R), SOUTH CAROLINA: This was an active war. The missiles were launched from Iran at targets inside of Iraq housing U.S. Military personnel. The President has all the authority he needs under Article Two to respond.

The price to be paid by the Iranians has to go up before they will change. And the President is not looking for regime change, but he is looking for behavior changes.

Now, the targets -- are they going to be military targets? Are they going the oil refineries.

Let me say tonight, if you are watching television in Iran. I just got off the phone with the President. Your fate is in your own hands in terms of the regime's economic viability. You continue this crap, you're going to wake up one day out of the oil business.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: Joining me now from Toronto, Sajad Jiyad. He's the managing director of the Al-Bayan Center for Planning and Studies. Great to have you on.

Speak to the risks of an escalation of bravado (ph). I mean do you feel what the President with his tweets and rhetoric, has backed himself into a corner that he almost must retaliate?

SAJAD JIYAD, MANAGING DIRECTOR, AL-BAYAN CENTER FOR PLANNING AND STUDIES: Well Michael -- it seems in this social media age everything is being done by Twitter. And unfortunately there has been an escalation in words as well as action.

The fact is, you know, the Iranians took a lot of hostility from the Americans they believe through the media, through social media, through President Trump threatening them directly.

And I think tonight the fact that Trump hasn't come out and spoken to the press, the fact that even after these Iranian air strikes in Iraq, it looks like things are not going to escalate as much as everyone feared. I think potentially there is a way out of this.

HOLMES: Yes. You tweeted earlier, and I thought it was salient. You said U.S. attacks Iran equals Iraqis die. Iran attacks U.S. equals Iraqis die. Speak to the reality that Iraq is in the middle of all of this.

JIYAD: Exactly. I mean this is the unfortunate situation we are in. When the Americans conduct their strikes last week and when they hit Qasem Soleimani, they also killed Iraqis. And we fear right now when we look at the damages that the Iranians -- when they struck, or attempted to strike American targets in Iraq, may have caught Iraqis up in this.

[01:50:00]

JIYAD: And this wouldn't be the first time unfortunately that both sides seem to disregard Iraq's sovereignty and disregard Iraqi lives. And being an Iraqi in this situation is unfortunate.

Iran is our neighbor, America is our ally. We want to remain in that situation but it has become increasingly difficult.

HOLMES: Well, given the Iranian political presence and influence in Iraq -- not just political, military as well -0 does this put Iraq in some ways in the position of having to pick a side and that side may not be the U.S.?

JIYAD: I mean it may lead us to that situation. We hope not. We look at the period when we were fighting ISIS -- Daesh -- from 2014 to 2017. We had Iranian support. We had American support. And we didn't have any conflict between Iran or the U.S. inside Iraq. We were able to maintain good relations with both countries.

And for Iraqi's I think that's where we want to be. We want to remain friends with the States. We want to remain in good terms with our neighbor Iraq. And we don't want to be forced to choose a side. And hopefully things will de-escalate and we'll be able to maintain good ties with both.

HOLMES: Do you Iraqis are a bit fed up with the U.S. now. I mean you've got these Iranian proxies who are operating militarily in Iraq. You've got Iranian-backed politicians who are pushing against the U.S. in parliament. And with Iraqis being caught in the middle, as they have been since 2003, let's face it, do you think they are a bit fed up with the U.S.?

JIYAD: I think, you know, what occurred last week in Baghdad airport airstrike, right -- that was an unexpected escalation. I think even pro U.S. politicians, the pro U.S. public in Iraq is upset about the U.S. escalation. It's very critical of what the U.S. did.

Saying that, I think we realize that there is, you know, a lot of positives that come from the Iraq-U.S. relationship. And hopefully if the U.S. is able to keep the value of Iraqi in mind, then we can look to a future where we are able to maintain really friendly ties with the States.

At the moment, things are not looking great. And I would say a lot of people are upset at the U.S. sanctions in Iraq . At the same time, they are also critical of Iranian influence. And hoping that the situation for the average Iraqi improves.

HOLMES: You know, meanwhile, in the middle of all of this ISIS is regrouping in Iran and in Syria. The U.S. and NATO just announced, they are stopping training programs because of all of this. ISIS must be smiling.

JIYAD: You would think so, exactly. And unfortunately, Iraq does not have the complete capacity to combat ISIS on its own. We do rely on U.S. support, and we are very appreciative of what the U.S. has been able to give towards the fight against ISIS.

And if the U.S. does end up pulling out of Iraq, withdrawing, there will be gaps in Iraq's capabilities. And we don't want to be in that position. ISIS can take advantage of any security vacuum or lapses or lack of (INAUDIBLE) and Iraqi security forces.

And they have been active in Iraq, you know, especially the past few weeks and months in several provinces in Iraq. So going forward, I think we need to remain aware of the fact that our relations with the U.S. also help our security.

And I think it's also something for the U.S. to keep in mind that if, you know, they endanger their presence in Iraq by violating sovereignty, by conducting attacks in Iraq without authorization of the Iraqi government. And then (INAUDIBLE) that unfortunately that the U.S. will also contribute to these lapses in Iraq's security.

HOLMES: Sajad Jiyad -- thank you so much. Appreciate you joining us here from Toronto.

JIYAD: Thank you -- Michael.

HOLMES: And turning now to our other big story. Australia's bushfire season absolutely devastating for the country.

And now we are learning at least 24 people have been charged in New South Wales over deliberately lighting some of those fires. At least 25 people have died, more than 2,000 homes have been destroyed across Australia since the fire season began.

And that is not all. The United Nations now says the wildfires have released a massive concentration of carbon dioxide over the Pacific Ocean.

country's prime minister warning the most difficult days to fight fires could come later this month and in February with hot weather expected to intensify the flames.

CNN's Anna Coren has been talking to some firefighters in Cobargo, which is one of the hardest hit towns in New South Wales.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ANNA COREN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: When you saw Cobargo alight and houses going up in flames, what was going through your mind?

CAPTAIN MARK AYLIFFE, COBARGO RURAL FIRE BRIGADE: Oh it's just -- yes, it's a horrible, horrible feeling to think that -- a feeling of helplessness to know that really it wouldn't matter if you 20 tankers, 30 tankers. There would have been more probably saved, yes, but to actually stop something of that sort of size and caliber.

But this is only one small pocket of our town. Yes, it's our town and this is our fight (ph). But it is only such a small pocket of the (INAUDIBLE) community.

[01:54:57]

AYLIFFE: The whole agriculture area, the amount of cattle like, you know being alive, you know, everyone that owns property and the hurt that they've gone through -- going through -- going to go through. You know, rebuilding -- it is very hard. This is the hardest, it's been hard (INAUDIBLE).

COREN: And how is the township coping?

AYLIFFE: We are resilient. I think everybody is hurting in their own way, in their own right. You know, we've got a long road, there's a lot of very resilient people here. There's a lot of people with a lot of love, a lot of commitment to people long term and to the community.

There's no doubt we will get through it. We just got to show patience, respect and love to each other.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: Incredible. Australia's bush fires have burned an area bigger than the U.S. states of Vermont and New Hampshire combined, just to give you an idea.

And for more information on how you can help the victims, and there are many, visit CNN.com/impact.

We'll take a quick break. More on this breaking news story when we come back.

[01:56:16]

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