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Iranian Rockets Hit Iraq Airbase Where U.S. Troops Are Based; U.S. Military Had Early Warning; Trump Tweets "All Is Well"; Ukrainian Flight Crashes after Takeoff in Tehran; Iran Fires Ballistic Missiles At U.S. Forces In Iraq; At Least 25 People Have Died Since Fire Season Began. Aired 2-3a ET

Aired January 08, 2020 - 02:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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UNIDENTIFIED MALE (voice-over): This is CNN breaking news.

ROSEMARY CHURCH, CNN ANCHOR (voice-over): Hello and welcome to our viewers in the United States and, of course, all around the world. I'm Rosemary Church.

MICHAEL HOLMES, CNN ANCHOR (voice-over): I'm Michael Holmes. We continue our breaking news coverage.

Iran has retaliated for the killing of its top commander and now the wait is on for Washington's response. Iran launching more than a dozen missiles at bases housing U.S. forces in Iraq.

CHURCH: There are no reports of casualties so far. The assessments are continuing. The attacks came just hours after Iranian general Qasem Soleimani was buried in his hometown.

The Pentagon said the ballistic missiles hit the al-Asad air base and areas in Irbil. About 5,000 U.S. troops are still there with other international forces in a coalition against ISIS militants.

HOLMES: Iran's foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has been tweeting about Tehran's missile strikes. He wrote, "Iran took and concluded proportionate measures in self-defense under Article 51 of the U.N. Charter targeting base from which cowardly armed attacks against our citizens and senior officials were launched. We do not seek escalation or war but will defend ourselves against any aggression."

CHURCH: That desire not to escalate the conflict is now being weighed at the White House, where President Trump tweeted this, "All is well. Missiles launched from Iran at two military bases located in Iraq. Assessment of casualties and damages taking place now. So far so good.

"We have the most powerful and well equipped military anywhere in the world by far," and he also added that a statement would be coming Wednesday morning.

HOLMES: Now as you would expect we have our correspondents across the region, also in the United States. CNN correspondent Jomana Karadsheh is in Baghdad, White House correspondent Jeremy Diamond standing by in Washington and Pentagon reporter Ryan Browne at the Defense Department.

CHURCH: Journalist Ramin Mostaghim is in Tehran and CNN's international security editor Nick Paton Walsh is in Beirut.

Good to see you all. Let's begin with Jomana.

What more are you learning about the Iranian missile strikes on those two Iraqi bases and what's Iraq saying about it?

JOMANA KARADSHEH, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Rosemary, in the last few minutes, we've just received a statement from the Iraqi military command. This. Is the first official statement since those strikes. They say at about 1:45 am and between 1:45 and 2:15 am they say Iraq came under missile attack.

Interesting use of wording, saying it was Iraq came under attack and say it was a total of 22 missiles targeting coalition bases and say 17 missiles hit al-Asad air base in the western al-Anbar province and two of those did not explode.

They say five other missiles landed in Irbil in the Kurdish region of Iraq. We had heard earlier from Kurdish sources, saying that it was two missiles; one hit Irbil international -- within Irbil International Airport and did not explode and one was to the west of the city.

According to the Iraqi military, they say that all the missiles struck coalition bases and there are no Iraqi casualties so far.

We have still not heard from the political leadership here. No reaction from the prime minister or others. But I can tell you, Rosemary, some here find it quite interesting, the choice of targets when it comes to the capital of the semi-autonomous Kurdish region, Irbil, coming just days after the Kurds boycotted a parliamentary session, where you had that vote, basically setting the groundwork for a call for U.S. forces to withdraw from the country.

Some questioning whether this was perhaps a message to the Kurds and the Kurdish leadership in the country -- Rosemary.

CHURCH: All right, many thanks to Jomana, bringing that reaction from Iraq.

HOLMES: Let's take you to Washington and CNN White House correspondent Jeremy Diamond is there.

Earlier on, it was expected the president might actually address the nation.

[02:05:00] HOLMES: It didn't happen but we did get a tweet.

What are we to make of that and what tomorrow might bring?

JEREMY DIAMOND, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: The president met with his national security team in the Situation Room of the White House yesterday and after that there was the possibility that the president might address the nation.

But that did not come to pass, suggesting perhaps there was no military action to be taken that night and, indeed, we did not see any military response from the White House so far.

Instead we saw a tweet from the president and one that appears to be signaling that the president is trying to step back from the brink and saying "All is well," saying, "So far so good," as it relates to the incoming casualty report from that Iranian attack at those Iraqi bases.

And that is very interesting because the president does appear to be focusing on that casualty estimate that is still coming in. That notable because the president had set this red line which did not focus on casualties so much.

The president said if Iran attacked any U.S. person or any U.S. interests in the region that Iran would face the U.S.' military wrath. Of course, that has not so far come to pass.

But again, the president teeing up a statement coming up later this morning the president saying that he will address this situation. We will see what he says.

As far as where he's headed, we know that the president is being pulled very much in two different directions, either using this as an opportunity to take an off-ramp and say, look, there were no American casualties, or perhaps following through on the red line.

HOLMES: All right. Jeremy Diamond, thanks so much. Appreciate it.

CHURCH: Now over to CNN's Pentagon reporter Ryan Browne.

So Ryan, are you learning any additional details about the Iranian missile strikes?

And is there any clarification on whether Iran deliberately avoided casualties?

RYAN BROWNE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: No official word from the Pentagon at all since that initial statement saying that the missiles targeted those two bases. Now sources are telling us that it appears that the missiles struck areas of the base that were not populated by U.S. forces.

So again, whether that was intentional or not, I think is something that remains to be seen. I think you have to factor in several things: the Iranian intent; perhaps they did it to avoid causing U.S. casualties. Or it could have been a targeting error. Some missiles are older and more antiquated. Not necessarily precision strike weapons. A lot of reasons they struck where they did.

And being told the U.S. military did have advance warning before the missiles were fired and were able to detect incoming missile threat so able to get forces at those bases to shelters, to these bunkers, so to help which is something that likely helped prevent any major loss of life.

Now again, those assessments are still being made but we're being told as of now no U.S. casualties reported. But no official word from the Department of Defense about any of this after several hours, which is concerning. But we are being told by sources on the ground there are no casualties at this point in time.

CHURCH: All right. Ryan Browne, many thanks to you for bringing us up to date.

HOLMES: All right. Let's take you now live to Tehran, where we find journalist Ramin Mostaghim.

And tell us from your vantage point. A lot saying it was a measured response. They made a point, sent the message and wants it over.

Is it your sense?

RAMIN MOSTAGHIM, "L.A. TIMES": Yes, indeed, that is my sense because according to the narrative framed by Mohammad Javad Zarif, the foreign minister, and the supreme leader and other (INAUDIBLE) that was a proportionate reciprocity operation.

So by that, they frame it as a last harsh response or whatever they might call it. But it means that they wish no more what they say "wickedness" or vicious actions of America.

If America stops wickedness, then they have no motivation to continue all this. I mean, eye for eye reactions. So from this end, where I am sitting, I can see that Iran wants to avoid any escalations, as Zarif said, and emphasizes that is Iran is not seeking war but just deterrence.

And supreme leader in the past over and over repeated, there won't be a war and there won't be negotiation, either. So we are just looking for what the supreme leader will be addressing the nation and, if you like, the world, just to say what is his narrative.

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MOSTAGHIM: But we don't expect any warmongering rhetoric from now onward.

HOLMES: For there to be peace, both sides need to stop. We will see in the light of day whether that happens. Ramin Mostaghim, thanks so much.

CHURCH: Now to Beirut and CNN's international security editor Nick Paton Walsh.

There are signs the U.S. and Iran could be stepping back from the brink and will know more in a few hours from now.

What's the view on that particular aspect of this from the region and, of course, on the retaliatory strikes launched by Iran?

NICK PATON WALSH, CNN INTERNATIONAL SECURITY EDITOR: Well, I mean to be honest it's difficult to see how Iran could have realistically thought this would cause a substantial number of U.S. casualties.

The time of night in which the attacks were launched, where there is minimal activity in the dead of night on bases like this, yes, these are not pinpoint missiles so there was a degree of gamble as to how many Americans may have been killed.

But wide areas of these bases often encompass and small parts of them would be where you have troops and personnel sleeping at night, often behind concrete barriers purposely designed to be sure if an attack like this happened without early warning, t could minimize casualties.

But it appears the high-tech missile systems already on high alert appear to have given the American a steer that this was incoming. So it may be this was Iran's bid to try to make a loud show of retaliation. Possibly, though and intentionally showing its military weakness in the face of U.S. military technology.

It seems compatible with the reports that Iran's supreme leader wanted to see a military to military response, something open, not something like many had thought that would be covert, using perhaps Iranian proxies, give Iran some deniability.

That was surprising, frankly, a decision by the supreme leader, given the fact that a U.S.-Iranian military standoff would end with pretty overwhelming American victory given the imbalance of forces.

So we're working whether or not this is the full extent of Iran's retaliation, an open show of military fierceness, perhaps coupled with the fact that no Americans or Iraqis appear to have lost their lives at this particular point.

Do both sides now de-escalate?

We know Trump doesn't really want an extensive war in the Middle East and the fact he's tweeting may be the fact he'll come forward to say our technology was good enough. We got through this.

The second is Iran may choose to respond at a later stage through the more expected proxies, possibly in an area that isn't the Middle East, against a target that is far less prepared or expected. So don't rule that out.

But also, too, if this is the end, then the Trump administration has learned perhaps a worrying lesson, that their slightly ramshackle response, however rational targeting Qasem Soleimani, considering the fact that they emerged from this strange week of mixed messages, confused signals about withdrawing from Iraq, attacks threatened against Iran's cultural sites, they emerge feeling their approach was somehow vindicated by Iran's relatively weak response.

And that could be troubling for the next nine months not only in the region but also against other U.S. enemies, too. And Donald Trump may think this response has done him well. Back to you.

CHURCH: We'll know very soon. Nick, thanks.

HOLMES: All right, we'll take a short break on the program. When we come back, Iran, not any of its proxies, fired those missiles. And I'll talk about an Iran expert about whether Tehran and the U.S. can step back.

CHURCH: Plus a deadly plane crash. A Ukraine airline flight goes down minutes after it takes off.

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CHURCH: Well, back now to our breaking news as Tehran retaliates for the U.S. strike that killed their general, Qasem Soleimani. Iran fired multiple missiles at two U.S. military targets in Iraq.

HOLMES: So far no reports of casualties although the assessment is ongoing.

Joining us now from Washington is Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.

And here we are again. So many significant data points. Ballistic missiles launched from Iran, not via proxies; that's significant. A direct message and a direct attack.

What's your take?

TRITA PARSI, QUINCY INSTITUTE FOR RESPONSIBLE STATECRAFT: Yes, I think you're quite right. The fact this is done by them directly, it's not a proxy, I think it's a clear message that says that they are ready for war, that this is not something they're doing and trying to hide from it or distance from it and have plausible deniability.

But at the same time we don't know the extent of the damage and if this still may give Trump a way out. Because the messaging from Iran is quite clear. They believe they have done something proportionate and this should be the end of it and neither Iran nor the U.S. should escalate further.

If the U.S. does, the Iranians are warning about a regionwide war. So the ball was in Trump's court. He was supposed to give a statement tonight. He decided not to and instead doing it tomorrow. But his tweet seemed to indicate that he's walking back a little bit.

Perhaps both Iran and the U.S. walked up to the edge of the abyss and decided this may not be for them.

HOLMES: It is interesting, that tweet, and we will put it up so people can see it.

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HOLMES: The U.S. -- in some ways you get the feeling from what Trump has said up until now the U.S. can't not respond, you know, the U.S. rhetoric has been such in the last few days that, you know, who knows what that response could be?

I mean, Donald Trump did tweet, if Iran attacks an American base, we will sending state of emergency of that brand new, beautiful equipment their way and without hesitation.

Will they attack the base?

PARSI: Well, they did but Trump has also had this ability to just completely do a 180 on these things and if there are no American casualties, I think he will find a way to justify not escalating this further.

But you are also quite right that there will be other people in his circle and a lot of folks, Republicans in the Senate, who will be not only egging him on to do much more but who will also blast him and may already start to do so if they don't see him escalate this into a full-scale war.

Some of these people have been pushing with war with Iran for more than 20 years and had a chance six months ago and lost it. This seems to be their second bite at the apple.

HOLMES: When we talk of retaliation and potential for retaliation, it's interesting, in its Telegram channel, the communications encrypted app, the Revolutionary Guard was saying earlier that, quote, "The Pentagon reports the U.S. will respond to Iran's attacks," and then in a footnote says, "this time we will respond to you in America."

Rhetoric is a dangerous thing because retaliation begets retaliation and then you're in a war.

PARSI: Absolutely and that's why I think a lot of people are holding their breath right now to see what Trump says tomorrow. And I think there's also importance that they both take advantage of the fact that numerous countries have stepped forward and offered to help mediate and facilitate a dialogue, direct or indirect, between them in order to defuse tensions.

Countries such as Oman, Switzerland, Japan have in the past have successfully helped reduce tensions. There are other players as well. The U.N. secretary-general, for instance, they should take advantage of all of those opportunities in order to reduce tensions and avoid that very, very dangerous escalation you spoke of.

HOLMES: Trita Parsi, as always, great to get your thoughts and analysis, thank you so much.

PARSI: Thank you so much for having me.

CHURCH: Investigators are trying to determine what caused a fiery and deadly plane crash in Iran. Ukraine's president confirming all 176 passengers and crew aboard the Ukraine International Airlines flight were killed when the Boeing 737 went down minutes after it took off from Tehran's international airport.

HOLMES: CNN aviation correspondent Richard Quest joins us now from Beirut. Senior international correspondent Matthew Chance standing by in Moscow.

Let's start with you, Richard, the talk of technical difficulties.

What leaps to your mind?

RICHARD QUEST, CNN AVIATION CORRESPONDENT: When I hear "technical difficulties," you're talking about some form of failure within the aircraft, i.e. An engine fire on takeoff, some form of control surfaces failed.

The plane got airborne and got to about 7,500 feet so it had power and was able to climb. So one starts to look at the variety of things, like an engine fire that does overwhelm the crew and they can no longer keep flying the aircraft.

And I have to say, though, normally, the plane was about two to three minutes into the flight at 7,800 feet when they finally did lose control. This is one of the -- a cautious part of the flight. Not the safest part by any means. That's the cruise but it's also not the most dangerous.

And the plane did take off, which is why investigators will be not only examining what happened, what was the proximate reason for the technical difficulties but then why were they unable to handle them?

Why was the crew -- this plane, by the way, was virtually new; 3.5 years old. And Ukraine International has an enviable safety record if you look at the databases. There are no major events there.

HOLMES: Richard Quest in Beirut, thank you very much.

CHURCH: All right. Let's head to Moscow now and Matthew Chance.

Matthew, what are you hearing there about this crash?

MATTHEW CHANCE, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, we're monitoring the situation obviously and within the past few minutes there's been a statement issued by the Ukrainian embassy in Tehran.

They're very much taking the lead, from a Ukrainian point of view on, you know, liaising with the Iranian authorities. [02:25:00]

CHANCE: It's quite an interesting statement, saying that, according to their initial information, the plane crashed due to an engine accident, due to technical reasons, I mean, that makes sense and sort of tallies with the other reports we've heard and confirmed coming out of Tehran about why this aircraft plunged into the ground so soon after takeoff.

And interestingly, the Ukrainian embassy in Iran also says that the version of a terrorist attack or a rocket attack is currently excluded. Now the reason I said that is because obviously this took place at the same time against the backdrop of that Iranian strike against U.S. facilities in Iraq.

I mean, there was no evidence whatsoever that that was linked and the Iranian embassy -- sorry -- Ukrainian embassy in Iran are not looking at a possibility of that, have excluded any kind of rocket attack or terrorist attack as something that might be responsible for bringing down this aircraft.

What they have done is confirmed that all passengers and crew on board the aircraft -- that's nine crew members and 168 people on board, passengers on board -- were killed.

And there have been statements of condolences, both from the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, who has returned early from his personal vacation in the Middle East to Ukraine, and from the Ukrainian prime minister as well. He's called it a terrible tragedy.

CHURCH: Yes, it certainly is that. Matthew Chance, bringing us the latest details there from Moscow. Many thanks.

Well, countries across the Middle East are on high alert as tensions between the United States and Iran rise after Iran launches missiles at a base where U.S. troops are stationed in Iraq. We'll have more reaction from the region next.

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ANNOUNCER: This is CNN Breaking News.

MICHAEL HOLMES, CNN INTERNATIONAL ANCHOR: And welcome back to our viewers in the United States and around the world. I'm Michael Holmes.

ROSEMARY CHURCH, CNN INTERNATIONAL ANCHOR: And I'm Rosemary Church. Well, we just want to update you now on the top story we've been covering. Iran follows through on its promise of retaliation for the U.S. killing of its top commander. Tehran fired more than a dozen missiles at bases in Iraq that house U.S. forces. There are no Initial reports of casualties at this time, but the assessment is continuing. HOLMES: Those missiles struck the Al-Asad Air Base and the facility in Irbil in the north of the country in Kurdistan. After officials brief President Trump, he tweeted, "all is well." And then like just said, he would make a statement on Wednesday.

CHURCH: Iran's armed forces' chief of staff says if the U.S. retaliates for the missile strikes, Iran's response will be stronger and more crushing. He echoed Iran's foreign minister who told CNN earlier that Tehran would not be intimidated by President Trump, or by last week's U.S. drone strike that killed General Soleimani.

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JAVAD ZARIF, FOREIGN MINISTER, IRAN: The killed one of our most revered commanders and most senior commanders, and they took responsibility for it. This is state terrorism, this is an act of aggression against Iran, and it amounts to an armed attack against Iran and we will respond, but we will respond proportionately.

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HOLMES: Now, the missile strikes on the Iraqi basis came just hours after the U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper told CNN the U.S. is not looking to start a war with Iran but is prepared to see it through. And Esper continues to defend the killing of the Iranian general Qassem Soleimani.

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MARK ESPER, DEFENSE SECRETARY, UNITED STATES: This is no innocent man, this is a terrorist leader of a terrorist organization, and his time was due. And I'd like to say we are not looking to start a war with Iran, but we are prepared to finish one.

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CHURCH: All right, so let's turn to our correspondence following all the developments.

HOLMES: CNN International Diplomatic Editor Nic Robertson is live in Saudi Arabia, Oren Liebermann joining us from Israel. Nic, let's start with you. The missiles came from Iran, not from some proxy somewhere. So what was upfront in that sense? Is it your sense that the targeting and the Trump reaction so far provides that diplomatic off-ramp if they want to take it?

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMATIC EDITOR: It's absolutely available to Iranians. They have the possibility to say that they've done what they said they would do, that they would strike a U.S. military target. If the first estimate says we have from the U.S. side that 1they're still doing assessments and other nationalities as well doing their assessments, but no casualties, 1then the Iranians have managed to strike a massive U.S. military base without causing any injury.

Yet to their home audience they can sell this and they are selling it as a so-called hard strike, a massive retaliation against the United States based in Iraq, you know, with that message that the U.S. should get out of Iraq. And who knows where they'll go with that level of selling the message to their population at home.

Certainly, the Iranians have the capability to do that, and that seems to be the direction they're going in. I've been to Al-Asad Air Base. It is a massive, massive, sprawling airbase, huge. It's also in a remote part of Iraq with -- that's not densely populated, where there's very small civilian population, some distance from the base, so the chances of collateral damage are minimal.

And the possibility, the very real possibility of firing a number of these ballistic missiles into such a large area and targeting them in such a way to avoid U.S. casualties is a very real possibility. And although we don't know yet, that option would have been available to Iranians.

I think the message to the region here is that Iran hasn't been seen to use its own ballistic missiles, and it's made under sanctions, by the way. So this is going to be a big message to the region that Iran has this sophisticated technology, that it can pile these missiles into, you know, into a very specific target area. If you're in Saudi Arabia here and the other Saudi government, you know, that the Iranian proxies, the Houthis in Yemen have been firing exactly these same missiles at the Capitol here, Riyadh.

So the message is very clear that Iran, if it wants to, can escalate with this sophisticated type of very long-range missile. But the real message from Iran at the moment is they're not looking for escalation. They know they wouldn't win a war. So you do get the sense here that they're creating the possibility.

And President Trump has already hinted that everything's OK. That this may be a possible way to at least the sort of end the military escalation of this.

HOLMES: Yes, end it for the moment. I mean, I don't think anyone thinks Iran's aims in the region will be affected by this long term, but it could end this little chapter which would be nice. Nic Robertson in Riyadh, thank you.

CHURCH: And Oren Liebermann is in the port city of Haifa, Israel, one of the places Iran threatened to attack if it's bombed. So Oren, what is the mood across Israel in light of these threats from Iran? And is there any sense that the U.S. and Iran may be stepping back from the brink?

OREN LIEBERMAN, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Rosemary, the port of Haifa peeking in and out of the fog here behind me. This is an area that has been threatened before by Iran and is certainly been threatened before by Iran's most powerful proxy in the region Hezbollah and it is the largest city in northern Israel, the third- largest in the country, so it is a major population center.

But as of this point, it is also fairly calm here. There's no elevated level of alert from the Israeli military. There are no restrictions on civilian in northern Israel which you would expect to see if they did expect a strike. Israel has been watching this very carefully, but military analysts and senior military officials have said right now this is between Iran and the U.S. And Israel assumes is happy to sit on the sidelines and at that fairly quietly.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has only made a few statements here. He has, of course, back to the United States and lauded the killing of Qassem Soleimani. But other than that, there hasn't been too much said by the most senior officials in the government from the foreign minister, from the defense minister. And it seems at this point that Israel sees no reason to enter itself into this fight between us and Iran. And Israel sees no reason to either prod or poke Iran or Iran's proxies in the region at this point.

We are expecting to hear from Netanyahu in a couple of hours. He'll speak at a policy forum in Jerusalem, and he is expected to address this in some way. It's worth noting that the Defense Minister and the foreign minister, as well as the U.S. Ambassador to Israel, will be there and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is issuing a pre-recorded statement there.

What they say of course will be carefully watched whether the Defense Minister and the foreign minister choose to weigh in and what Netanyahu says. We, of course, expecting to once again back the U.S. actions and warned against attack Haifa. If he goes beyond that, we'll be watching closely to see in which direction it points Israel's policies right now.

CHURCH: Many thanks to Oren Liebermann bringing us that live report from Haifa in Israel.

HOLMES: And we will take a short break. When we come back, Iran's attack raising more questions about its missile program. Just how advanced is it? What is it capable of? We'll discuss ahead.

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CHURCH: Well, more now on our breaking news story. Iran has fired more than a dozen missiles that Iraqi bases housing U.S. troops, retaliation for the U.S. strike that killed Iranian general Qassem Soleimani. So far, there are no reports of U.S. or Iraqi casualties.

HOLMES: Now, President Donald Trump visited the Al-Asad Air Base that was back in 2018. His reason for killing the Iranian general Soleimani has evolved. He initially said he was -- it was to head off an imminent attack on Americans, but now he's calling it possible retribution for the death of an American contractor at an Iraqi military base who might have been killed by Iranian backed militias. Have a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Don't forget, in our case, it was retaliation because they were their first. They killed -- look, I don't have to talk about him for 18 to 20 years. He was a monster.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CHURCH: Joining us from Washington is Joby Warrick. He is a National Security Reporter for The Washington Post and the author of Black Flags: The Rise of ISIS. Thank you so much for talking with us.

JOBY WARRICK, NATIONAL SECURITY REPORTER, WASHINGTON POST: It's a pleasure.

CHURCH: So Iran has now retaliated for the killing of its top general firing these ballistic missiles at two bases in Iraq housing U.S. military and coalition forces. And in an article Tuesday, you wrote that Iran has been quietly developing precision missiles, making the country a far greater foe than previous thought. What do you -- what did these retaliatory strike signal to you and where do you think this is going?

WARRICK: Well, I think we're seeing some of the cards that Iran has to play, and they have a lot of them. They haven't been sitting still for the last few years. They've been investing very heavily, particularly in the area of precision-guided missiles. They don't have much of an air force. Their planes are very old. Their previous missile arsenal was antiquated, sort of Soviet technology. So they decided to really invest in precision guidance. That means they'd be able to put a big explosive on a small target someplace far away from you.

And now they have many different platforms from which they could do that. Everything from the ballistic missiles that we apparently have seen tonight, to cruise missiles, to armed drones. They have different ways in inflicting pain, and they can use any one of those in an escalating conflict.

[02:45:05]

CHURCH: How did Iran so quickly develop this precision weaponry and what else should we know about their weapons capability. You touched on it there but how much does the U.S. know about all of this?

WARRICK: I think we know a lot about it. And I've been talking to intelligence officials over the last couple of weeks about what they do know. And what we've seen, really, I think the Saudi attack was a good example. This was the largest oil facility in Saudi Arabia, and it was hit by a swarm of cruise missiles and drones.

Two different facilities were hit. One facility had something like 19 weapons come down on it and did a lot of damage. Only two the 19, you know, cruise missiles and drones failed to hit their targets. And they're able to put this facility out of action for several days, shut down half of Saudi Arabia's oil exports, and it was -- it was quite damaging.

CHURCH: Interesting. But this retaliatory action was very much a clear signal message from Iran. This came from Iranian soil. They weren't using any proxies so there could be any deniable -- it's a situation where they could deny this was coming from them, plausible deniability. But talk to us about what you think would be Iran's likely next move.

WARRICK: Well, this was a bit of a surprise. And I've been saying that a lot of conventional wisdom has gone out the window in the last couple of days. Most experts that I've spoken to, at least, in the intelligence community did not think that Iran was going to risk, you know, a direct attack on U.S. facilities, so they would find other ways to inflict damage.

But now they're very boldly, very brashly coming straight after U.S. military bases. And so there will, I imagine, be another response from the U.S. But then Iran has additional cards they can play, including going after economic targets. There's a lot of oil facilities within their reach they could put out of action, and then you have a global spike in oil prices. So their ability to do things beyond this first strike is quite substantial.

CHURCH: Right. And cyber-attacks have been a concern for many as well. But both Iran and the U.S. have said they don't want war, but their actions suggest otherwise. So where is the off-ramp here? Is there one?

WARRICK: We haven't seen one yet. I think it's going to be important to see what happens tomorrow in the light of day when we see what kind of damage has been inflicted at these American bases. If there weren't casualties, we've been lucky that no lives have been lost, then perhaps that is a moment for people to step back and say, well, how do we defuse the situation?

If there has been casualties, it's going to be almost irresistible pressure on President Trump to do something else, and then you got an escalatory spiral and no one really knows where that's going to go.

CHURCH: It is a great concern for so many people across the globe. Joby Warrick, thank you so much for joining us. We appreciate it.

WARRICK: Absolutely. Thank you.

HOLMES: Well, after its hottest December on record ever, Australia's deadly wild showing no signs of slowing down. The death toll inching higher. We'll be live in New South Wales ahead.

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CHURCH: Welcome back, everyone. I just want to update our breaking news. The White House is weighing its response for Iran launch missile attacks on U.S. led forces in Iraq in retaliation for the killing of Commander Qassem Soleimani.

HOLMES: There are no reports of casualties at the moment. After a White House briefing, President Trump tweeting "all is well," and said he would make a statement on Wednesday. CHURCH: We want to turn now to another big story we've been watching very closely. At least 24 people have been charged in New South Wales Australia over deliberately lighting some of the fires that have devastated vast parts of that country.

HOLMES: That is just hard to believe, isn't it?

CHURCH: It is. It's heartbreaking.

HOLMES: It's extraordinary. 25 people have died, more than 2,000 homes have been destroyed since the fire season began. CNN's Anna Coren is live for us in the coastal town of Merimbula in New South Wales. Anna, I know you -- I know you've had the rare opportunity of getting up in the air to go and see what's going on. Fill us in.

ANNA COREN, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes, Michael. We have been waiting for this opportunity now for days, but because of the heavy smoke as well as the fog, no one has been able to get up in the air, not even the rural fire service members. So we were at Merimbula airport today and we accompanied the head of the attack squad, if you like, of the rural fire service. And he was going up to assess the fire front.

They really don't have any intelligence from the ground because of the poor conditions over the past couple of days. But this was an opportunity to take to the air. Visibility had improved. And we traveled from Merimbula down to Eden, a coastal town that has been threatened by these border fire across from Victoria into New South Wales.

And, Michael, it really was quite extraordinary the amount of damage that has been done. We just saw these burnt-out trees, like forest, it's a bush land that has just been decimated. And then we actually got footage of the -- of the wood chip mill just outside Eden, several kilometers from the township, which has been billowing smoke ever since it caught a light.

No one has seen this footage. It really is quite extraordinary to now be showing the world what is taking place there. And yet even though there is this massive inferno going on, and that is likely to burn for weeks, if not months, there is a massive pile of logs not far away, and that still is very much intact.

The concern for these firefighters is that the conditions will deteriorate come Friday. We're expecting a return to those hot dry conditions as well as the winds which are going to whip up the fire. So the focus today wasn't so much on the existing fires that are burning, but rather the spot fires that have come past that the containment lines.

So whilst we're in the air, they activated the aerial bombing, the water-bombing aircraft, those two Black Hawks, as well as that Erickson Skycrane and it was quite remarkable to see it at work, Michael.

HOLMES: All right. Great reporting. Thanks, Anna. Anna Coren there on the spot, those devastating fires continue. That is all the time we have this hour. Thanks for your company. I'm Michael Holmes at the CNN Center in Atlanta.

CHURCH: And I'm Rosemary Church and I'll be back with much more of our breaking news right after this short break. Do stay with us.

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