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Iran Admits to Unintentionally Shooting Down Ukrainian Plane; Oman Names New Leader; Trump Now Claims Soleimani Targeted Four U.S. Embassies without Evidence or Explanation of Imminent Threatens South Coast Welcomes Back Tourists after Bushfire Shutdown. Aired 4-5a ET

Aired January 11, 2020 - 04:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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UNIDENTIFIED MALE (voice-over): This is CNN breaking news.

NATALIE ALLEN, CNN ANCHOR (voice-over): Thank you for staying with us. We are following the breaking news this hour out of Iran, Iran now admitting that it did shoot down a Ukrainian passenger plane by mistake.

Welcome to our viewers here in the United States and around the world. I'm Natalie Allen.

GEORGE HOWELL, CNN ANCHOR (voice-over): And I'm George Howell.

Iran initially denied having shot down that plane but leaders now say that missile fired by mistake brought down a Ukrainian passenger jet on Wednesday, that plane with 176 people who were on board.

ALLEN: The United States, Canada and other countries had already reached that conclusion. The plane crashed just a few hours after Iran launched missiles at military bases in Iraq housing U.S. troops.

HOWELL: Also dramatic new video to show you, video of the moment that passenger plane hit the ground. We warn you, this video is graphic. You will find it disturbing for sure.

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ALLEN (voice-over): It was shot from a surveillance camera on a building not far from Tehran's international airport. You can see the impact there and what happened afterward. The bright light from the fire as the plane gets closer and the plane hits the ground and explodes. The flaming debris, hundreds of pieces of the plane strewn across the area.

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HOWELL: And CNN is covering this major development throughout the region. Fred Pleitgen is live in Tehran with more on what the Iranian government is saying. Scott McLean is live in Kiev, where there are calls for justice. ALLEN: And Ben Wedeman is in Beirut with a look at the new sanctions

Iran faces from the U.S.. And Sam Kiley in Baghdad for us where the U.S. faces demands to withdraw its troops following the killing of Qasem Soleimani.

Let's start in Tehran with Fred Pleitgen.

Now that Iran has had admitted what happened, the question is why and how this mistake was made.

FREDERIK PLEITGEN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: You're right. And I think that is something that the nation is grappling with. Iranians are saying that they will have a full investigation into all of this, they say that they will hold the folks who were culpable for this, that they will hold them accountable.

Iranian military is talking about a military judicial system and Iranians are saying that they are going to review their procedures and everything around their air defenses to make sure that something like this does not happen again.

News that we just got, some information coming from Iran supreme leader's office, explaining why we're learning of this now and the circumstances around it. And I'm sort of paraphrasing.

He says about the air defense system, the supreme leader issued an urgent order yesterday on Friday to urgently convene a national security meeting. And the supreme leader apparently said that the principal of the incident and the results of its investigations will be told to the people honestly and frankly.

Apparently that is something that he said at a National Security Council of Iran meeting yesterday and that is probably why we're learning about this incident in the early morning hours of today.

Apparently there was another meeting that took place, probably where they were deciding how and when to tell the Iranian population, the world's public also, about what happened.

But you're right, the Iranians looking into this incident now, wanting to know exactly the circumstances of how it happened. They have already given some details as to what exactly happened. They said that there was radar detections that they were getting after their own strike on bases in the Middle East or in Iraq housing U.S. troops.

They said that they saw U.S. planes flying near their borders near sensitive military installations so they themselves were on high alert. And they say that the Ukrainian airlines plane took off and at that point was near a Revolutionary Guard base.

They said that the altitude of the plane, the direction of the plane, led the surface to air missile crew to believe that it was a threat and therefore it was shot down in error.

Obviously as we said the Iranians saying that it was catastrophic. Iran's president saying it was an unjustifiable mistake. So there is certainly right now it seems as though a search going on for why this could happen. A call to say that there must be justice for what happened.

And obviously apologies being issued by the Iranian government, by the foreign minister. And by the president as well, both to the Iranian public because a lot of the people who were on board who were Iranian dual citizen, and then, of course, to the relatives and loved ones of those who perished in all the nations from where victims of the crash came from.

ALLEN: And also I want to ask you, Fred, considering there was heightened tension and they just attacked in Iraq and perhaps worried about the U.S. doing something, why were they letting commercial airliners take off?

PLEITGEN: Presumably that is also going to be part of what they are going to look into.

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PLEITGEN: They are going to talk about their procedures and see how they could refine those procedures to make sure that something like that doesn't happen again. That probably wouldn't only engulf the military, looking at its own procedures, but also thinking about what happens, if there is another national emergency, can you really keep the country's airspace open, especially if you are thinking that there might be airstrikes on your installations and your military is on high alert?

It really is unclear why the airspace wasn't closed off. If you look at the air traffic that was coming through those areas since those strikes took place, there were quite a few planes taking off.

And I think that we looked at some of the data and it was about eight flights that took off; at least six of those flights took a very, very similar flight path. I've been on that flight path a bunch of times, flying out of that airport.

So that was clearly a dangerous situation with those planes flying over those military installations while the folks on the ground there were on high alert. So that most probably will be a situation that is going to have to be looked at.

On the other hand, though, the Iranians have been claiming that their air defense systems are highly accurate and highly efficient. They shot down, as you know, an American drone in the middle of last year and, there, they said that they were able to pick that drone out in the midst of massive air traffic that was down in that area in the Persian Gulf.

And they said they even discovered a second American plane that they didn't shoot down because they knew what amount of crew was on that plane. So Iranians have been saying that the air defense systems are very, very efficient and very accurate.

Obviously now they are saying that, in this -- I guess you could call it fog of war -- in this situation, they clearly mistook this aircraft that they shot down for a threat and a military aircraft and it is certainly something where they are going to, they say, have a large investigation into this.

ALLEN: Absolutely. And you know, so many thoughts are with the people and the families that are grieving right now. Fred Pleitgen for us, thanks.

Now over to George.

HOWELL: And now live in Ukraine, Scott McLean is on the story.

And what reaction are you hearing there from officials?

SCOTT MCLEAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hey, George. The Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky put out a statement this morning after the news broke, he said this morning was not a good one but it brought the truth.

This frankly should not be a massive surprise. Yesterday the foreign minister said they had gotten information from the U.S. and U.K. that they said was very solid, indicating that there may have been a missile strike.

But Ukraine was in a bit of a delicate situation, having to balance the fact that the Iranians were strongly denying that that was even possible. They even called it fraudulent. And the fact that they had 45 of their own investigators on the ground, not obviously keen to jump to conclusions, given that they are wanting to carry out a full investigation.

He also went on to say that Iran really owes a full apology, an official apology, through diplomatic channels, and payment of compensation. He also insisted, being quite direct, no longer being so choosy or delicate with his words but insisting that the 45 investigators get full access, quicker access, to the investigation, to the site.

There were some questions earlier about how much involvement they had. Yesterday the foreign minister said that, in any investigation, investigators want to have more access, quicker access.

Whether that was valid, though, he said, was hard to tell. Now it is a much different tune, insisting not only on that but also on compensation.

There is a press conference that will be held by the airline in about two hours from now; we'll be headed there right after this and there will certainly be questions about what Fred touched on, which is why exactly this flight was allowed to take off in the first place.

The airline held a press conference Wednesday after the news broke but they have said little; they have the not return calls since then. At the time, when asked about that, they said if they had any hint of danger, the plane would not have taken off. The foreign minister said that they had reviewed the flight path and

it was in the normal path of commercial flights so there was no way that this plane should have been targeted for anything.

But I think still a valid point to be made about why, given the heightened tensions between Iran and the U.S. and especially the fact that Iran had fired missiles at U.S. targets just hours earlier, why there wasn't more precautions or why flights were taking off at all.

HOWELL: Given how important that airport is there Iran, yes that is a major question for sure. Scott, thank you.

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ALLEN: And let's talk more about these questions. Joining me now, Geoffrey Thomas, editor in chief and managing director at airlineratings.com.

I want to start with the question that our reporter just asked.

Geoffrey, why would a commercial airliner be operating during this time?

GEOFFREY THOMAS, AIRLINERATINGS.COM: That is a very good question. And right to the point here, one hour earlier than this tragic shoot down, Turkish Airlines flight TK-873 took off from the same airport en route to Istanbul. And it took exactly the same flight path as the Ukrainian plane.

Now there are other aircraft as well that took off, Iran aircraft and a Qatari aircraft took off as well. And so planes were taking off up to an hour, an hour and a half, before this Ukrainian aircraft took off. So clearly the authorities thought that it was safe and all these planes took off safely.

All of a sudden, this Ukraine aircraft takes off, as exactly what the other aircraft had done, but it gets shot down. So you know, to sort of say it was an accident doesn't really ring true because other aircraft had been operating in exactly the same manner as this aircraft had in the previous hour.

ALLEN: And issuing a statement that perhaps the transponders would have been off if it was a military plane that they had been confused with. So that doesn't make sense. And they just said that their air defense systems are very accurate, so, yes, questions about how this would happen.

Go ahead.

THOMAS: And the transponder was on, because flight radar 24 picked it up. And was tracking it until it was blown out of the sky at 8,000 feet. So if they are suggesting that the transponder was turned off on this aircraft, again, that is wrong as well.

ALLEN: I misspoke. I meant to say if it was an incoming military plane, that would mean that their transponders were turned off. (CROSSTALK)

THOMPSON: -- if it was a threat, that aircraft would probably be below radar. So it doesn't ring true, no matter which way you slice and dice it.

ALLEN: So they finally have come clean and said, yes, this is what happened. So that is something else that they will have to deal with.

What do you think, as far as in situations like this, is it typical that commercial airliners are -- well, that countries stop their commercial flights?

THOMAS: That is a very good point. It seems almost bizarre that any airplane was allowed to take off after that missile strike on the Iraqi bases because one would naturally assume that you would have incoming missiles targeting Iranian defense installations, which are around Tehran airport.

So why the authorities allowed airport to fly is perplexing. It doesn't -- again, it doesn't ring correctly.

And then the other thing about this is that the FAA and the United States has banned U.S. airlines from flying over Iraqi and Iranian airspace. And one would presume other countries would follow suit.

But in actual fact, they haven't. There are a lot of airplanes flying over Iraqi airspace right now and there is a lot of airplanes flying over Iranian airspace right now. So it really is perplexing how airlines deal with these issues and how authorities are dealing with these issues, because there is obviously a clear and present danger to passengers.

ALLEN: Yes, certainly is, thanks for bringing that up. Questions that we continue to explore. Thanks so much, Geoffrey Thomas. Always appreciate your insights.

HOWELL: And this crash happened amid broader tensions in the region between the U.S. and Iran. The United States now applying new sanctions on Iran after a missile attack on the U.S. and allied bases in Iraq. We'll have details on that after the break.

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ALLEN: We continue to follow the breaking news out of Tehran, where Iran now acknowledges that Ukrainian passenger plane was targeted and shot down unintentionally. But the admission is coming with some caveats. Iran's own forces HQ blames increased radar activity and fear of U.S. aggression for the mistake.

HOWELL: The nation's foreign minister Javad Zarif offered his apologies to the victims' families but said the error was caused by U.S. adventurism. The crash killed 176 who were on that flight.

Let's go live to Sam Kiley in Baghdad.

Baghdad really caught in the middle; Iraq was certainly the middle ground between these tensions between the U.S. and Iran. There was, of course, the targeted killing of Qasem Soleimani; the Iranian response that followed and then the downing of this plane.

We now know that Iran no longer denying that it shot down the plane by mistake but how does that fit within the broader context here?

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SAM KILEY, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, I think that it is a stain on the reputation of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps in terms of its international standing, in terms of its reputation for professionalism, albeit certainly through the Quds Force that General Soleimani commanded, which was dedicated to regional destabilization.

But in that context, George, just yesterday, demonstrators were out on the streets of Baghdad in considerable numbers, several thousand, once again protesting against the foreign influence on their country, both from the United States and from Iran.

And that at a time when Iranian-backed militias here are continuing to say that the United States must withdraw its troops from Iraqi territory or face violent consequences.

Now that is officially the position of Iran's parliament and, indeed, of its prime minister, who said recently after a phone call with Mike Pompeo, the U.S. secretary of state, that he wanted the United States to begin negotiations to do just that.

Mr. Pompeo has said that that isn't exactly how he would characterize the phone call but this is a turning point for the Iraqi-U.S. relationship; arguably, also down the line perhaps for the Iranian relationship, too, with Iraq.

But in the first instance, the issue here is going to be, over the next couple of weeks, what is the future status of American troops here in Iraq.

And remember, George, they are here at the invitation of the Iraqi government to help with their campaign against the so-called Islamic State, an organism, which while it no longer controls any land, most certainly is still alive and kicking and killing here in Iraq.

HOWELL: And there are many throughout that country that certainly rely on that U.S. presence given that ISIS does seem to be resurging. Sam Kiley live for us in Baghdad, thank you for the reporting. ALLEN: Despite tensions continuing to simmer between Iran and the

U.S., on Friday the Trump administration announced new economic sanctions against Iran. It comes after the country attacked U.S. troops earlier this week. For more on this angle, Ben Wedeman is joining me now live from Beirut.

And Ben, the U.S. sanctioning Iran yet again.

What do you expect and what could be the impact against the country?

BEN WEDEMAN, CNN SR. INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: It is hard to say what is going to be impacted because most analysts believe that Iran is essentially sanctioned out by the United States under its policy, under the Trump administration, of maximum pressure.

Now according to this latest -- these latest sanctions announced by the United States, they include the metallurgy sector as well as eight senior military and security officials. But hard to say how this is really going to make a difference to the Iranian economy, given that everything else is sanctioned.

What we've seen since the United States, under the Trump administration, began to pull out of the nuclear deal is the re- imposition of ever more draconian sanctions with little to show in terms of the Iranian flexibility.

ALLEN: And let's talk about a new story that has broken, that is the death of the Sultan of Oman. He was so important in the region and dealing with Iran.

WEDEMAN: Yes, the sultan had been in power in Oman since 1970. He passed away overnight. His funeral is already taking place.

He was a man who was -- led a country that was an intermediary, very much low-key. For instance, it was thanks to Omani mediation that, in 2013, talks began that eventually led to the Iran nuclear deal, of course, which is now in shambles.

But they repeatedly, under this sultan, used very low-key diplomacy to resolve a variety of crises when American and British military personnel were taken prisoner by Iran. The Omanis intervened to win their freedom.

And in addition to the Iran deal and other crises around the region, the policy was for Oman to be the friend to all, enemy to none. And with his passing, we shall see his successor does have a background in diplomacy.

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WEDEMAN: Hopefully they can continue this policy of mediation around the Middle East, a policy that is desperately needed, I might add, at the moment -- Natalie.

ALLEN: Absolutely. All right, thanks so much, Ben Wedeman for us in Beirut. HOWELL: Let's talk more now with Fawaz Gerges, a professor of

international relations at the London School of Economics and also author of "Making the Arab World," joining us from our London bureau. Good to have you with us.

FAWAZ GERGES, DIR. MIDDLE EAST CENTER, LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS: Thanks.

HOWELL: Let's start by getting a sense of what is happening here, Iran's denial and then an about-face. Seems to be a fulsome apology.

But why in your view did they deny it from the start?

GERGES: I think that it tells you a great deal, that if evidence had not really emerged, I think the leadership would have is still maintained that it was accidental.

And I think that Iran has done a great deal of damage to basically the question of trust at home and also its reputation overseas.

The belated acknowledgement of its responsibility for downing of the plane raises serious questions, alarming questions, George.

Why didn't Iran shut down its international airport and its airspace hours after it had fired dozens of missiles against U.S. military bases in Iraq?

It clearly shows the lack of command and control in the armed forces, the lack of coordination. In fact, the garrison that shot the plane obviously did not coordinate with the various units, armed units.

And it is a systemic failure. And its belated acknowledgement will likely stoke anger inside Iran, anger about the lack of incompetence (sic), about accountability and about trust.

And finally, we have to mention, George, that what happened, the tragic downing of the Ukrainian plane, is also a result of the unintended consequences of President Trump's preemptive action.

The killing of General Soleimani, the assassination of General Soleimani, set off a train of tragic events that led to the downing and killing of more than 170 civilians in the Iranian airspace.

HOWELL: This plane crash, the indirect result again of the tensions that are playing out between the United States and Iran, at the same time, we're seeing the blame game. We're seeing Iran describe this as the result of U.S. adventurism, the U.S. also casting blame toward Iran.

Where do you see the broader conflict going from this flashpoint?

GERGES: My take on it is that the clash between Iran and its allies and the United States and its allies is far from over. Even though the region has escaped, I mean, fortunately, a wider conflict in the past few days, I think both sides, the United States and Iran, remain set on a collusion (sic) course. I see it now really changing from a direct confrontation between Iran

and the United States into a war of attrition. Iran and its allies will likely target American interests throughout the Middle East.

And I think Iraq and Syria are the major -- and Yemen are the major theater. My overall take is that America's military footprint in Iraq has become untenable.

You will see a facing out of the American military presence in Iraq in the next few weeks, even though the Trump administration is burying its head in the sand and denying and opposing and refusing to basically accept the Iraqi request to begin the process of pulling American forces in Iraq.

I think that you will see, in the next few weeks, America bringing home most of the troops, the 5,000 and 2,000 American soldiers in Iraq, even though a contingent of American forces and international coalition will likely remain in the country for the sole purpose of the fight against ISIS.

HOWELL: Fawaz Gerges, thank you for your perspective.

GERGES: Thanks.

ALLEN: And more on our breaking news, Iran admitting that it mistakenly shot down that Ukranian passenger plane. We're live in Tehran after this.

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UNIDENTIFIED MALE (voice-over): This is CNN breaking news.

ALLEN: We continue to follow this news, that the Iranian government has admitted that it shot down the Ukranian passenger plane unintentionally.

I'm Natalie Allen.

HOWELL: I'm George Howell. That admission comes after Iran initially denied that it shot down the plane.

ALLEN: And Fred Pleitgen is live this hour this Tehran. He has been monitoring this story for a good time now.

So, Fred, Iran finally admits what happened but that came with caveats. For one, it blames increased radar activity and fear of U.S. aggression for the mistake.

PLEITGEN: You're right, they are saying that it happen in the phase of heightened tension. And because they were on such high alert, that they mistook this airliner for an aircraft that could be hostile.

They say that it took off from the airport and was at an altitude and at a pitch where it was perceived to be a threat by one of their air defense systems. They said that it was coming towards a Revolutionary Guard sensitive area and was shot down in error.

And there have been some reactions that we've been getting from Iran's president and foreign minister and also from Iran's supreme leader, which we're hearing right now.

The information there is that apparently the supreme leader, according to Iran's information, was informed about this last night, Friday night, and convened a session of Iran's Security Council and there issued the order to be transparent and to tell the people what happened.

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PLEITGEN: So that is coming from Iran's supreme leader. At the same time, you have calls for investigations coming from a flurry of Iranian political and religious leaders as well.

The president of the country Hassan Rouhani called this an unjustifiable mistake and said those who are behind it will be held accountable. He is calling for justice and the military saying that there will be a military trial for those behind all this and that they are going to reform the procedures that they have for their air defense system.

ALLEN: All right. Fred Pleitgen with the latest for us there, thank you.

HOWELL: Up next, the shifting stories over what led to the killing of Iran's second most powerful official. We'll take a closer look at the Trump administration's inconsistencies in the death of General Qasem Soleimani.

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MIKE POMPEO, U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE: So if you are looking for imminence, you need to look no further than the days that led up to the strike that was taken against Qasem Soleimani.

It was imminent. This was an intelligence based assessment.

There is no doubt that there were a series of imminent attacks that were being plotted by Qasem Soleimani.

KAITLAN COLLINS, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Secretary Pompeo, what is your definition of imminent? POMPEO: This was going to happen.

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HOWELL: There, according to the U.S. secretary of state Mike Pompeo, it was an imminent threat, a word he keeps using to justify the killing of Iran's top general, Qasem Soleimani.

ALLEN: And it comes as Iran is now admitting that it shot down a Ukrainian passenger plane, unintentionally killing all 176 people on board. President Hassan Rouhani says that it was human error and has vowed to prosecute those responsible.

And the foreign minister is also blaming a crisis caused by U.S. adventurism, as he called it, after the U.S. killed that top Iranian general.

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ALLEN: The Trump administration keeps switching its story on why it killed the general. Jim Acosta has that from the White House.

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JIM ACOSTA, CNN CHIEF WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Still in search of a justification for taking out Iranian General Qasem Soleimani, President Trump now says Iran was plotting to attack multiple U.S. embassies.

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I can reveal that I believe it would have been four embassies.

ACOSTA: That's more than what the president said one day earlier.

TRUMP: We did it because they were looking to blow up our embassy.

ACOSTA: And that capped a week of mounting consistencies, as top officials insisted that an attack was imminent, even though they couldn't specify the time and place.

MIKE POMPEO, U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE: There is no doubt that there were a series of imminent attacks that were being plotted by Qasem Soleimani. We don't know precisely when and we don't know precisely where, but it was real time.

QUESTION: But time and place?

ROBERT O'BRIEN, U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER: It was imminent. You never know the time of place of these things with perfect particularity.

ACOSTA: In the rarely used White House Briefing Room, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo tried to do some cleanup.

POMPEO: We had specific information on an imminent threat. And that threat stream included attacks on U.S. embassies, period, full stop. QUESTION: So you were mistaken when you said you didn't know precisely when and you didn't know precisely where?

POMPEO: No, completely true. Those are completely consistent thoughts.

ACOSTA: Pompeo claimed lawmakers were briefed on the allegations of an imminent Iranian threat. POMPEO: We did.

QUESTION: You said -- so the senators are lying when they say that...

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POMPEO: We told them about the imminent threat. All of the intelligence that we briefed, that you have heard today, I assure you, in an unclassified setting, we provide in the classified setting as well.

ACOSTA: But Democrats say it's all news to them.

SEN. BERNIE SANDERS (I-VT), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Not one word of that was mentioned. So is it true? I don't know. But we didn't hear it.

SEN. MAZIE HIRONO (D-HI): I have no idea where he got that from, but that's par for the course for this president.

REP. ERIC SWALWELL (D-CA): Consistently, in the multiple briefings, I have received on this, they have not shown imminence.

ACOSTA: The president touted the killing of Soleimani at a rally in Ohio, where he said there was no way he was going to brief House Speaker Nancy Pelosi before the strike.

TRUMP: We got a call. We heard where he was. We knew the way he was getting there. And we had to make a decision. We didn't have time to call up Nancy, who is not operating with a full deck.

ACOSTA: The inconsistencies could become a major headache for Mr. Trump, who once told CNN Wolf Blitzer former President George W. Bush should have been impeached for lying about the war in Iraq.

TRUMP: Bush got us into this horrible war with lies, by lying, by saying they had weapons of mass destruction, by saying all sorts of things that turned out not to be true.

ACOSTA: As for the Iranian threat, the Trump administration is still revealing new details, with one U.S. official confirming to CNN that, on the same night of the Soleimani strike, American forces targeted a separate Iranian military official in Yemen.

But that mission was unsuccessful. And there is one another problem for the White House, as the Iraqi prime minister is requesting a timeline for an American withdrawal from the country.

POMPEO: We are happy to continue the conversation with the Iraqis about what the right structure is. Our mission set there is very clear. We have been there to perform a training mission to help the Iraqi security forces be successful and to continue the campaign against ISIS.

ACOSTA: The Trump administration announced new sanctions on Iran, aimed at further punishing that country's economy, and senior Iranian officials. The White House hopes the new sanctions will somehow prod Iran to get back to the bargaining table over its nuclear program.

But it's hard to imagine that happening, as Iran appears to have closed the door on sitting down with the Trump administration to talk about much of anything -- Jim Acosta, CNN, the White House.

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ALLEN: Let's talk about this with James Davis. He is joining us from Munich.

Good to see you. First up I want to ask you, the definition of imminent seems to be in question here.

And was it an embassy, embassies, what do you make of the shifting stories from the Trump administration?

JAMES DAVIS, UNIVERSITY OF ST. GALLEN: Yes, I think this is what you get when the president makes a decision, spur of the moment, out of affect and emotional decision, some might say instinctive decision.

And then after the fact you try to create justification for it. I think if you went back over the last probably 10 to 15 years, you would find that Soleimani and the Quds Force were planning all sorts of activities against American assets and America's allies in the region.

So if you look hard enough, you will find plenty of plans.

But does that mean any were imminent in the sense that the actions that would be needed to execute them were underway?

And I think that the administration is showing us that that is not the case.

ALLEN: And lawmakers say that they were not briefed on the imminent threat. Mike Pompeo says that they were. No clarity there.

But what if they weren't briefed, what if they were left out?

[04:45:00]

DAVIS: Well, the problem here is an old one. It's the question of when does the president have the authorization to use force without congressional approval?

If the United States is under attack or an attack is truly imminent; that is to say, actions are underway in preparation for an attack, then, of course, the president is expected and has the right under the Constitution to take action, to prevent or thwart an attack on the United States.

But if this is a more -- if this is part of a larger political strategy, intended to send signals to the Iranians, intended to perhaps put the pressure on the Iranians to get them to reconsider the notion of renegotiating the Iran nuclear deal, then the president really does have to go to Congress and ask for authority.

He is claiming -- or parts of the administration are claiming that he has the authority, based on the resolution passed after 9/11 -- and the resolutions passed with respect to the Iraq War.

This has nothing to do with the Iraq War or 9/11. This is a larger geostrategic competition between the United States and Iran for influence in the region.

And so I think that it is reasonable to expect that the president would consult with the Congress before he would take actions, if those actions are not really in response to an imminent threat.

ALLEN: We heard what he said about not talking to Nancy Pelosi. Let's talk about Pelosi and the impeachment trial. Let's pivot to that.

She now says that the wait is over, she will bring the articles of impeachment to the floor next week.

Why now, do you think?

DAVIS: That is a good question. I'm slow to question Nancy Pelosi's strategic or tactical sense. I think that she has mastered this process so far and shown that she is, in fact, a master of politics in Washington.

My guess is that she has come to the conclusion that she has gotten about as much a she can get out of the delay.

What she was able to do was provide time for the American public to consult with their members of Congress over the Christmas holidays; some additional documents have come to light, which suggests that there really was an attempt by the president to instigate a quid pro quo.

She was able to draw out the Senate and make clear that the Senate Republican leadership has no intention of having a neutral trial here but is very much coordinating with the president to make sure that this thing is over quickly and that the president is whitewashed.

So I think she's gotten that out of the delay. And that is probably about all she could expect to get. The end game here is pretty much certain, barring any new great revelations. The Republican majority in the Senate is going to clear the president.

ALLEN: Well, it is coming, we know that at last. Thanks so much for your input, James Davis live from Munich.

DAVIS: Thanks, Natalie. HOWELL: More ahead as we continue following the breaking news out of Iran. Iran's military saying that it shot down a Ukranian passenger plane by mistake.

ALLEN: And also firefighters battling the massive bush fires in Australia. But they will get a break.

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HOWELL: Australian officials have reopened several beaches and tourist areas in New South Wales as bush fires there ease.

ALLEN: Cooler temperatures and some rainfall are giving firefighters a chance to get the upper hand on the massive fires but the devastation is vast.

HOWELL: And it is heartbreaking to see. There is hardly anything left in some parts of Victoria. Our Anna Coren has the story of one man who survived the fires.

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GRANT SHORLAND JR., EVACUEE: Holy (INAUDIBLE). Behind me is (INAUDIBLE) Mallacoota.

(INAUDIBLE). The fire (INAUDIBLE) inundated (INAUDIBLE), has taken everything unfortunately.

This is pretty heavy (ph) life and death situations. But this is by far the most hectic thing I've ever witnessed there.

Here in Mallacoota, everyone that I knew of, if they didn't have a boat, they were all evacuating down to the main wharf, where the fire engines and everyone was there to take care of them. I suppose last resort was to jump into the water.

And then people, locals, everyone that I knew (INAUDIBLE).

We have decided to (INAUDIBLE).

(INAUDIBLE). Now the fire front has come through.

Everything started to go black. And then it went really black. And then it went red. And it was quite scary, actually.

(INAUDIBLE) got supplies. But I hope everyone is (INAUDIBLE) is just (INAUDIBLE) houses (INAUDIBLE). Get into the water. It is (INAUDIBLE) chaos. Fire is a strange thing. It goes around some people's houses and it --

and other people's houses are just completely gone. It is just crazy.

This is (INAUDIBLE) avenue which is the most -- worse affected area, hard to believe (ph). Some residents decided to stay. (INAUDIBLE) Chad (ph) here, he saved his family home and friend's home in the street with a bucket of water. And those guys are crazy.

(INAUDIBLE). This is going to affect me directly and also everyone in town. It is probably one of the -- well, it is the biggest employment in town for everyone. And it looks like (ph) some of the people who actually lost their homes but work here. So...

I've never seen anything like it. I hope everyone (INAUDIBLE) is safe.

ANNA COREN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Will the town bounce back?

SHORLAND: Yes, of course we will. People will get their houses rebuilt.

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SHORLAND: We'll move on. Keep doing what we're doing right now until we have got road access. Yes, and I'm really looking forward to going and seeing my missus and kid.

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ALLEN: So as we said, yes, small break for firefighters but they are up against so much there.

HOWELL: And those fires still burning out of control.

ALLEN: OK. Coming next, breaking news: Iran now admitting that Ukrainian passenger plane was targeted and shot down unintentionally on Wednesday. Iranian president Hassan Rouhani saying in a tweet that he deeply he regrets the disastrous mistake and he vows to prosecute those responsible for downing the plane.

HOWELL: There were 176 on that flight that was bound to Kiev, Ukraine. Iran isn't taking all the responsibility, though. The country's armed forces headquarters blames increased radar activity and fear of U.S. aggression for the mistake.

The people killed came from all over the world, Iran, Canada, Ukraine, Sweden, Afghanistan, Germany and the United Kingdom.

ALLEN: We have reporters live all across the region and we'll be going back to them in just a moment.

HOWELL: CNN NEWSROOM continues after this.