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Senate Votes on Trump's Fate in Impeachment Trial Later Today; President Trump Makes Case for Re-election in State of the Union Address; Tensions Flare Between Trump and Democrats During State of the Union Address. Aired 9-9:30a ET

Aired February 05, 2020 - 09:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[09:00:21]

JIM SCIUTTO, CNN ANCHOR: Very good Wednesday morning to you. I'm Jim Sciutto in New York. Poppy Harlow is off today. And we are following three major stories.

We don't have a final winner yet, but we do have a clear leader in the Iowa caucuses. The first set of results show Pete Buttigieg ahead of Senator Bernie Sanders by a slim margin. Joe Biden well behind. We're going to break it all down.

And the president takes a page out of his own campaign rally playbook for the State of the Union, then Speaker Pelosi tears it up. Literally.

A divisive night in our nation's capital. Today the Senate is set to put an end to the impeachment trial more than four months after Democrats launched the inquiry. The final vote on removing a sitting president from office, just the third in our country's history, will take place hours from now.

More on that in a moment. But first let's bring in CNN senior political writer Harry Enten. So 71 percent of the results now in. What are we learning from Iowa?

HARRY ENTEN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL WRITER AND ANALYST: Yes. So, you know, the way they do it in Iowa is rather confusing. You have a first vote, a final vote. But this is what I want to concentrate on. The statewide delegate equivalents. And what do we see here. We do see that Pete Buttigieg has that advantage over Bernie Sanders right now, 27 percent to 25 percent.

But it's very, very, very close, Jim. The other thing I'll just kind of point out here. Joe Biden not doing all that well in the moderate lane and in that very liberal lane, Bernie Sanders is beating out Elizabeth Warren.

SCIUTTO: OK. So if we look back, because Iowa has been a pretty good predictor of the eventual Democratic nominee going back to 2000. If we look back to 2016, what can we expect to learn from this?

ENTEN: Yes, so this is rather interesting to me and sort of gives you an idea how the ground has sort of shifted. Remember, in 2016, basically Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton, both at right around 50 percent. This now is 71 percent of the precincts. And this is a key difference insofar as Sanders' support has really been cut in half. He's very close to Buttigieg but in fact that margin between the top person and Sanders, anything Sanders is a little worse off.

SCIUTTO: Well, the other thing I noticed, too, is you have a big division of the votes here among the leaders compared to 2016.

ENTEN: Yes.

SCIUTTO: All right. We're already -- all the candidates already on the ground in New Hampshire now. What is New Hampshire shaping up?

ENTEN: Yes. So this is Harry's average of polls. Right? This is before any of the Iowa bounce has been taken into account. This is a good state for Bernie Sanders. He's at 25 percent right now. My average of polls. Pete Buttigieg is only at 13 percent. The real question is whether or not you get that bounce out of Iowa into New Hampshire.

SCIUTTO: And especially with the delay. But let's look at some history here then. John Kerry overperformed in Iowa back in 2004. What difference did it make?

ENTEN: Right. Take a look here. So this was the New Hampshire poll average before Iowa. Look at this. Dean was all the way up at 34 percent. Kerry was just at 21 percent. Once that Iowa bounce was taken into account, though, look at how the results changed. Kerry jumped all the way up. He jumped up to 38 percent and Howard Dean fell back all the way down at 26 percent.

SCIUTTO: Interesting. So I mean, a couple of headlines here, right. Pete Buttigieg, you know, he's a winner by a slim margin. Do we see a bounce there? Do we see the reverse for a Joe Biden?

ENTEN: Right. And so this is basically -- these are my odds based upon the New Hampshire polling predictiveness since 1980. Pre-Iowa, Biden was ahead of Buttigieg in their chance to win according to my math. Four in 20 chance to win versus Buttigieg at two in 20. But with that Iowa bounce, if the past holds, Buttigieg jumps all the way up to 5 in 20. Biden falls all the way back to only 2.5 in 20 chance. So Iowa does control, does have a big impact on New Hampshire. If it does, Buttigieg may be in contention there.

SCIUTTO: And he's in second and third. I mean, remember Bill Clinton famously declared himself a comeback kid.

ENTEN: That's true.

SCIUTTO: You know, not having won but having overperformed coming out of New Hampshire. We're going to be watching it. I know you're going to tell us all the wisdom,

ENTEN: I'm going to try my best.

SCIUTTO: Harry Enten, as it happens. Thanks very much. ENTEN: Thank you.

SCIUTTO: So as we await the complete results in Iowa, the 2020 campaigns of course moving forward on the ground in New Hampshire. We've got a team of reporters following the candidates across that state.

Let's begin with Vanessa Yurkevich, she's following the Buttigieg camp in Concord.

Listen, Vanessa, this is good news for Pete Buttigieg. Narrow lead over Bernie Sanders in Iowa. How is he trying to capitalize on that in New Hampshire?

VANESSA YURKEVICH, CNN BUSINESS AND POLITICS REPORTER: Hi there, Jim. Well, it definitely gives him bragging rights for now and, obviously, a little bit of momentum as he is campaigning here in New Hampshire. This is coming after he was touting victory for nearly 36 hours. But he can't claim official victory yet, but he can say that he does have the lead.

We were with him last night as he shared this first round of results with supporters he was with. And he reflected on how far he's come.

[09:05:02]

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

PETE BUTTIGIEG (D-PA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: And it validates for a kid somewhere in a community wondering if he belongs or she belongs or they belong in their own family. That if you believe in yourself and your country, there's a lot backing up that belief.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

YURKEVICH: And you hear Pete Buttigieg getting quite emotional there. I've been covering him since before he officially announced his campaign, and I've only seen him get choked up a couple times. So, obviously, a big moment for him. But the question, Jim, really is, what kind of a bump will he see as he continues to campaign this week in New Hampshire? The campaign said last night that he had his single best hour of fundraising after those first round of results came out.

But, of course, we're still waiting for about 29 percent of those results to still continue to move in. There could be some additional movement. But Buttigieg saying last night that even if he dropped down to second place, Jim, he would still call this a victory for his campaign, Jim.

SCIUTTO: Yes, and is that bump muted by the delay? We'll see.

Vanessa Yurkevich, there.

CNN political reporter Rebecca Buck, she's with the Sanders camp this morning. Rebecca, listen, a good result in Iowa, it appears, for Sanders, but

on the other had he did lose to a small-town mayor but he is going to more familiar territory here in New Hampshire. Tell us how they're feeling this morning.

REBECCA BUCK, CNN POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Right, Jim. Well, as you point out, Iowa was sort of a mixed bag for Bernie Sanders. On the one hand, as he acknowledged to reporters yesterday on the plane from Iowa to New Hampshire, turnout was lower than he would have liked and lower than he expected, frankly, in Iowa. And of course, he is sharing the stage right now with Pete Buttigieg. Both of them neck and neck in the lead for Iowa.

The results still inconclusive with only 70 percent of reporting. Now on the other hand, I spoke with a senior Sanders officials yesterday who said they believe once all the votes are counted, all the precincts are in that they will win Iowa. Of course we'll have to wait and see if it pans out that way. But right now they're turning their attention to New Hampshire.

This is a chance for them potentially, especially in light of the inconclusive Iowa results right now to show that they are here to stay, that they are a real threat in this race and they really are a frontrunner, if not the frontrunner in this Democratic race for the nomination. And other candidates, I should note, are taking notice of this here in New Hampshire. Joe Biden on the trail yesterday calling out Bernie Sanders by name and attacking him on the issue of health care and his support for Medicare for All, what that might mean in terms of taxation.

And as you can imagine, Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders all looking at the same polls that we are looking at. You just saw Harry's average there showing Bernie Sanders with an advantage heading into the primary next week. Of course he won here in 2016 so expectations are very high for him. They're hoping to make a statement here in New Hampshire -- Jim.

SCIUTTO: Yes. It's a test to some degree.

Vanessa Yurkevich, Rebecca Buck, thanks very much.

Several of the top 2020 Democrats will take part in CNN's town halls. The live two-night event begins tonight at 8:00 Eastern Time live from New Hampshire.

Back in Washington, the state of our union is, well, sadly, divided. The president's politicized State of the Union address, sounding almost like a campaign speech, riddled we should note with several falsehoods.

CNN's John Harwood is at the White House this morning.

Let's walk through some of the president's claims here because it's important that we fact-check. Have a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Thanks to our bold, regulatory reduction campaign, the United States has become the number one producer of oil and natural gas anywhere in the world. By far.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SCIUTTO: John Harwood, simple question. Is that true?

JOHN HARWOOD, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: No, it isn't. And that was a very good example, Jim, of the rhetorical sleight of hand that the president used all night. Yes, the economy is good. There are positive developments across the board. But he was trying to evoke what the line he used in 2016 saying I alone can fix it. He did not -- he has not alone fixed it.

The fracking revolution is largely responsible for why the United States is the number one producer of oil and gas. It reached that status in 2012 under President Obama. Like with so many other economic trends, President Trump has taken things that were happening under the Obama administration that he criticized at the time and now saying under my administration, they are all good.

SCIUTTO: Yes. I mean, the question is, you have good numbers to tout. Why do you then have to venture into misleading territory.

HARWOOD: Exactly.

SCIUTTO: Just doesn't seem necessary. The president claims he has created millions of jobs since his election. Have a listen, let's fact-check.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: Since my election, we have created seven million new jobs, five million more than government experts projected during the previous administration.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

[09:10:10]

SCIUTTO: OK, John Harwood, fact-check that.

HARWOOD: That doesn't make much sense because the economy produced eight million jobs in the last three years of President Obama's administration. Again if you look at the trend, the unemployment rate has been falling and job creation has continued. In fact it's -- the economy has been growing since six months into Barack Obama's presidency, but in reality, job growth has slowed under President Trump. Not his fault. It's a very long expansion. You would expect that. But this is not a dramatic new development due to President Trump.

SCIUTTO: Right. Got good numbers. Why again do you have to venture into misleading territory there? Another claim Trump says thousands of factories have been built under his administration. Have a listen. We'll fact-check that.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: After losing 60,000 factories under the previous two administrations, America has now gained 12,000 new factories under my administration.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SCIUTTO: All right. 12,000 new factories. True?

HARWOOD: Well, the establishments he is describing are not all factories. That could include bakeries or tailor shop, but that is a positive development. The one thing the president doesn't mention, however, is that over the last year or so, his trade policy has actually hurt manufacturing. We're in a manufacturing recession right now. Business investment is also down.

So in addition to claiming credit for things that began under President Obama, he, of course, as you would expect, omitted ways in which he has damaged the economy over the last year or so since applying those tariffs.

SCIUTTO: Facts matter. That's what we try to do. John Harwood at the White House, thanks very much.

Still to come this hour. President Trump is all but certain to be acquitted later today in his Senate impeachment trial.

Up next, I'm going to speak to a Democratic senator who is set to speak on the Senate floor just moments from now.

And the problems with vote reporting in the Iowa caucus centered around a glitch in an app. How vulnerable is technology making our elections? Does this provide openings to foreign powers? And what can we do to make them safer?

Plus, two new flights evacuating Americans from the epicenter of the deadly coronavirus arrive in the U.S. this morning. We're going to be live there as it happens.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:15:00]

JIM SCIUTTO, ANCHOR, NEWSROOM: Don't forget this. In just a few hours, the third impeachment trial of a sitting U.S. President in this country's history will come to an end. President Trump, though, expected to be acquitted in the Senate. CNN's Lauren Fox is on Capitol Hill. Lauren, tell us what we're going to see today. Will this trial go out with a whimper?

LAUREN FOX, CNN CONGRESSIONAL REPORTER: I think that we all expect that the president will be acquitted, Jim, in just a couple of hours. That is all but certain. But there are still some members that are worth watching, including Mitt Romney, that Republican from Utah, a moderate member who voted for more witnesses, of course, didn't have the votes with other Republicans to make it happen.

But we still don't know how he plans to vote today, whether he would vote to remove the president from office for what he is alleged of doing. The other things to watch, three moderate Democrats who have not said yet how they plan to vote, including Doug Jones of Alabama, who is up for re-election in 2020.

And I'll tell you, Jim, that senators are ready to move on from this. But the question is whether or not they can repair relationships that have really been damaged over the last three weeks, really last four months of this investigation. This impeachment endeavor. I think that, that is one of the key questions we're walking away from today. And conversations I've had with both Republicans and Democrats.

There's this feeling that everyone is relieved this comes to an end this afternoon. But there's a question, how do they move on from here? Especially after the State of the Union speech last night, there's a real question of whether or not there's an appetite to work together after everything they've been through over the last several months. Jim?

SCIUTTO: Well, what will the effects be? Lauren Fox, thanks very much. I'm joined now by one of the senators who will cast a vote today. Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley of Oregon. He also serves on the Foreign Relations Committee. Senator, thanks for taking the time this morning.

SEN. JEFF MERKLEY (D-OR): You bet, good to be with you, Jim.

SCIUTTO: So, a vote will take place this afternoon, the president by all accounts will be acquitted. I wonder as this process comes to an end, in the final analysis, did Democrats lose?

MERKLEY: Well, I'll tell you, Jim, I'm uncomfortable with the word acquitted because that implies that there was a full and fair trial. Every American knows that a trial involves complete access to documents and witnesses. In this case, for the first time in U.S. history, the majority decided to make it not a trial, but instead a cover-up. So I think the wounds are going to be very deep because this is a serious breach of our constitutional responsibility.

SCIUTTO: To that point, you released a statement after the State of the Union address that said the following, "the pattern has been clear" in your words, "when rich and powerful special interests come knocking, President Trump won't hesitate to sell out working Americans for his own political benefit." I mean, that was the essential charge at the core of the impeachment.

Holding back U.S. taxpayer funded military assistance to an ally at war --

MERKLEY: Yes --

SCIUTTO: To engender a political favor here. I just wonder, though, after this, do you see the president emboldened to do the same again in this election? Is he more powerful in his view rather than less powerful?

MERKLEY: Yes, I believe he is emboldened because he knows he has a Senate Majority that will protect him from the major check and balance that our founders put into the constitution. That is of a full, fair trial in the Senate where misdeeds can be fully explored, and if they are significant, a president can be removed from office.

[09:20:00]

Let's realize how much more serious this is than Watergate. Watergate was about spying on the Democratic National Committee and breaking in to do so. This is about recruiting a foreign government in a corrupt conspiracy. This is about using the weight of the national treasury in our security aid that had been approved by Congress and withholding it.

This is about involving the Secretary of Energy, Ambassador Sondland, Ambassador Volker, in other words, an extensive set of the State Department and the cabinet to carry out this conspiracy. This is about intervening in the integrity of the next election in a way --

SCIUTTO: Yes --

MERKLEY: That completely surpasses Watergate.

SCIUTTO: I wonder, as foreign countries, Russia, of course, that interfered in 2016, but also countries that have shown both the capability and the intent, China, Iran, North Korea. If they look at this and say, we have an opportunity here --

MERKLEY: Yes --

SCIUTTO: We can do it again, and perhaps we might have a receptive audience in this president.

MERKLEY: Well, indeed the cost of interfering is very low. The moment that President Trump came into office, he should have said that while he may have had some differences over the extent of Russian influence, it was there. It was unacceptable. It will never happen again, that he would be the watchdog for America.

Instead he became the apologist for Russia, denied that it ever happened, bought into the conspiracy put out by President Putin that it was actually Ukraine, not Russia. So we've had a lapdog for Russia rather than a watchdog for America, which is a complete imitation to other countries to use social media and other strategies to influence our election and divide --

SCIUTTO: Yes --

MERKLEY: Americans against themselves.

SCIUTTO: State of the Union, of course, took place last night. And I don't want to minimize here, of course, the president made essentially a political speech there, and he made --

MERKLEY: Yes --

SCIUTTO: Some claims that we fact-checked, and that they were misleading. But you had Democrats make political stands as well. Some boycotted. Some walked out. You of course had Nancy Pelosi famously tearing up the president's speech as it ended here. I'm just curious, as a Democrat, and I'm aware of your view of the president. What does that accomplish?

MERKLEY: Well, I must say it does reflect the extensive division in America. To see that campaign speech delivered, to see one side of the room standing, the other side grimacing. When the president talked about fighting for workers, when he gave $2 trillion to the richest Americans rather than helping out workers.

When he talked about restoring the manufacturing economy when the manufacturing economy has been in recession the last six months. When he talked about standing up for the pre-existing conditions in health care when he's in court trying to destroy the protection for pre- existing conditions. It was difficult to sit through. I went out of respect for the office, not out of respect for the individual who holds that office.

SCIUTTO: On the 2020 race, of course, we're deep into it. We're following Iowa. You have yet to endorse someone. In 2016, you endorsed Bernie Sanders. You haven't yet, why?

MERKLEY: Well, I have many friends who are running. I have -- there are several people occupying kind of each lane, and I do feel like it's so important that we come back together. I want to be in a position to talk about a 100 percent unity when we -- when we have our candidate. We cannot re-elect this man who has driven divisions in America, attacked almost every segment of our population.

African-Americans, Haitian-Americans, Latino-Americans, immigrant- Americans, women-Americans, veteran-Americans, disabled-Americans. We really -- this is not what America is about. It's about us working with our extensive differences in history coming from all parts of the world to build a more beautiful, more successful nation. We need that spirit of celebrating America and working together to, if you will, lift everyone up.

SCIUTTO: You could argue, though, and that's a fair message about this country. Though, you could argue that Democrats also need a message of what they're going to get done. In 2018, the message that worked for them, those candidates, particularly flipping red to blue districts were bread and butter issues, health care, et cetera. I wonder as you head into 2020, what positive messages -- positive messages do Democrats entering election day?

MERKLEY: There are four foundations for a family to thrive. It's healthcare, it's housing, it's education and it's a good-paying job. And in all four of those areas, we're going to have a powerful message of investing in the American family. And that is exactly what we should be doing as a nation. I saw the results of that investment three decades after World War II. I wasn't there, but I saw the results through my parents' lives being

transformed. And then I've seen in my four decades in public life, working people, level or declining under the change from government, by and for the people, to by and for the powerful.

[09:25:00]

We want to reclaim the vision that was in our constitution. And that will lift and take us forward on all of those foundations for thriving families.

SCIUTTO: It will be tested these coming months. Senator Jeff Merkley, thanks for joining the broadcast this morning.

MERKLEY: You're welcome, good being with you.

SCIUTTO: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, she goes on a tear, literally. Her unprecedented move to rip up the president's speech seems to be overshadowing what he actually said in his State of the Union address. Was that part of her plan?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SCIUTTO: It's been quite a week. Chaos in Iowa, a divisive State of the Union address, and an impeachment vote. Only the third in this country's history just hours away. It's only Wednesday. Joining me now to discuss, Errol Louis; political anchor for "Spectrum News" and Julie Hirschfeld Davis; congressional editor for "The New York Times".

END