Return to Transcripts main page

CNN Newsroom

Democratic Candidates Barnstorm New Hampshire Ahead Of Primary; Trump Ousts Two Key Impeachment Figures After Senate Acquittal; How New Hampshire Made Bill Clinton The "Comeback Kid"; Hillary Clinton's 2008 Emotional Campaign Stop Before New Hampshire Primary; Reagan Declared At 1980 Debate "I Am Paying For This Microphone"; Comparison Between Buttigieg And 1975 Carter Catchphrase "Jimmy Who?"; Coronavirus Ship Quarantine Continues Off Japan's Coast; Oscars Best Picture Showdown: "Parasite" Vs "1917". Aired 3-4p ET

Aired February 08, 2020 - 15:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[15:00:00]

ANA CABRERA, CNN HOST: I'm Ana Cabrera in New York. You are live in the CNN NEWSROOM.

And it's the race to decide who will stand alone against President Donald Trump in the polls in November. American votes are starting to shape the race the way polls and ads and speeches cannot. And this race does not take the weekend off, in just three day, the first Democratic primary of the 2020 race, snowy New Hampshire, coming hot on the heels of the mess that was the Iowa caucuses. Seven men and women fighting for the Democratic nomination share the debate stage in New Hampshire last night. You'll hear plenty in the next few hours about their various hits and misses.

And here is how they stack up against each other among New Hampshire voters in this fresh CNN/UNH poll out just released this afternoon. You can see Sanders on top, and Pete Buttigieg, former mayor of South Bend, Indiana, his campaign with some momentum after the Iowa caucus, shooting from single digits to now, within a few points of Senator Bernie Sanders in New Hampshire. That new position made Pete Buttigieg a big debate target last night by those who say he doesn't bring enough experience to the table.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

FMR. MAYOR PETE BUTTIGIEG (D-SOUTH BEND, IN), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: As to experience, I just bring a different perspective. Look, I freely admit that if you're looking for the person with the most years of Washington establishment experience under their belt, you've got your candidate of course, it's not me.

JOE BIDEN (D), FORMER U.S. VICE PRESIDENT, PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Well, I don't know what about the past of Barack Obama and Joe Biden was so bad. What happened? What is it that he wanted to do away with? We were just beginning. It was just the beginning of what will be the future of moving this country beyond where it is now in significant ways.

SEN. AMY KLOBUCHAR (D-MN), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: What you said, Pete, as you were campaigning through Iowa, and three of us were jurors in that impeachment hearing, you said it was exhausting to watch and you wanted to turn the channel and watch cartoons.

SEN. BERNIE SANDERS (I-VT), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Unlike some of the folks up here, I don't have 40 billionaires, Pete, contributing to my campaign. coming from the pharmaceutical industry, coming from Wall Street and all of the big money interest.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CABRERA: CNN's Ryan Nobles is in Rochester, New Hampshire. Ryan, tell us what voters in that primary state are now saying about their favorite candidates.

RYAN NOBLES, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, it seems pretty clear, Ana, that we see two candidates pulling away from the rest of the pack and that would be Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg. The polls showing that they are the two leaders right now, Sanders with the edge over Buttigieg right now by about seven points.

But when you drill down into these numbers, we find even more encouraging information for Sanders in particular. The big knock on the Sanders campaign up until this point is that perhaps he would not stand the best chance against Donald Trump in November. A lot of Democratic voters concerned about his electability.

Such is not the case in New Hampshire according to our poll. In fact, the New Hampshire voters rank Bernie Sanders as the person with the best chance of beating Donald Trump in November, 29 percent to Joe Biden's 25 percent with Buttigieg coming in third at only 14 percent. That's such an important statistic, Ana, because when you ask Democratic primary voters over and over again, their number one criteria for their candidate is a candidate that they know can beat Donald Trump.

And then finally, a lot of times, people will accuse Bernie Sanders and his campaign of being a bit too polarizing, even within the Democratic field, and moderate candidates in particular, moderate voters, I should say, a little too concerned that Sanders' revolution might turn voters off.

But when we asked which Democratic candidate would you not vote for under any circumstance, it wasn't Sanders that came out on top, it was the former vice president, Joe Biden, often thought of as the moderate consensus. Seventeen percent of New Hampshire voters said they wouldn't vote for him under any circumstance, Elizabeth Warren at 16 and Sanders only at 11 percent. You can see though that Pete Buttigieg, who is doing well in our poll, only 3 percent of New Hampshire voters said that they wouldn't vote for him under any circumstances.

Ana, more than anything, what these numbers do show us though is that this is still a very tight race. There is not one candidate that is pulling away from the field and the campaign and the candidates themselves can see that as well. They know that there are a lot of New Hampshire voters who are still yet to make up their mind and a lot can change between now and Tuesday. That's why you're seeing these candidates with a sprint to the finish to that vote on Tuesday night.

CABRERA: And just to remind our viewers, last time around in 2016, Sanders won there in New Hampshire with 67 percent to Clinton's 32 percent in that election cycle. It just goes to show what a difference four years makes. Ryan Nobles, thank you.

Even before this new polling was released, Joe Biden was already tempering expectations. Here he is at the start of last night's debate in New Hampshire.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BIDEN: It's a long race. I took a hit in Iowa. And I'll probably take a hit here.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

[15:05:01]

CABRERA: Joining us now, Joe Trippi, a long-time Democratic strategist who has advised everyone, from Walter Mondale and Howard Dean, and Alexandra Rojas, the Executive Director for Justice Democrats, a progressive political action committee.

So, Joe, we heard just a snippet from Joe Biden there but he said, I'll probably take a hit here. Why would a candidate seem to concede defeat in their opening line? What's at play here?

JOE TRIPPI, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Well, I think it's definitely about setting expectations, and I don't think he has high expectations in New Hampshire. As you pointed out, Sanders won with almost two to one, better than two to one in 2016. I don't think anybody doubts that he is likely to win on Tuesday.

I would caution though in the polling, you know, in 2008, the day before the primary in New Hampshire, Barack Obama surged to a ten- point lead in the poll that was released Monday morning, the day before the primary. The night of the primary, he lost to Hillary Clinton.

I think the order is going to change dramatically from this poll. It's just the way New Hampshire moves here at the very end. Both Iowa and New Hampshire move quickly, both are capable of surprises. And I think, I'm not saying that Sanders won't win, I'm saying but I do think there will be a surprise in the order, I don't think this order will hold.

CABRERA: But just to follow up, Joe, for a moment on Biden, on top of lowering expectations, the Biden campaign has also just released a new ad attacking Buttigieg. Let's just play a quick clip.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Both Vice President Biden and former Mayor Buttigieg have taken on tough fights. Under a threat of a nuclear Iran, Joe Biden helped to negotiate the Iran deal. And under threat of disappearing pets, Buttigieg negotiated lighter licensing regulations on pet shop scanners.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CABRERA: Now, the Buttigieg campaign responded saying in part, the vice president's decision to run on this ad speaks to where he currently stands in this race than it does about Pete's perspective as a mayor and a veteran. Joe Biden had originally sought to use his frontrunner status to focus on Trump and refrain from attacking other Democrats. What's changed?

TRIPPI: Well, first of all, if that ad was on --

CABRERA: Go ahead, Joe, and then I will shoot to you the next question, Alexandra.

TRIPPI: I'm sorry, I didn't mean to interrupt. But if that ad was running on New Hampshire television, it might be doing something. But it's -- you know, it's clearly an internet ad that I'm not sure is going to have much impact.

On the other hand, yes, Joe Biden needs to take on both Sanders and Buttigieg now. Because it's clear to me that Pete Buttigieg pulled moderate voters away from Biden. It's like a seesaw. Bernie is doing that to Warren right now. Buttigieg is doing -- is having that impact on Biden. Biden has got to turn that around or stop it with leading in South Carolina, if he can.

CABRERA: Alexandra, I want to ask you about the progressive candidates since that's more your lane. Biden has talked a lot about Sanders and Warren being from neighboring states to New Hampshire, so that gives them, he says, an inherent advantage. Why do you think Sanders is polling so much further ahead of Elizabeth Warren in New Hampshire?

ALEXANDRA ROJAS, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, JUSTICE DEMOCRATS: Well, I mean, I think it's more about what he is talking about. And I think that last night on the debate stage, he made the case really, really well, which is about leveling the playing field. It's about centering the needs of the working and middle class of this country and improving their lives but also putting them above corporate and special interests.

And so I think someone like Joe Biden actually had a pretty good moment with Iowa being such a debacle, deflected from what I think normally would have been one of the biggest stories, and I think is right now, which is that the former vice president of the United States came in fourth place, you have 17 percent voters within New Hampshire that are saying they don't want to vote for him.

And so I think this is a real repudiation of the sort of old establishment style of politics, and one that actually centers the working class of this country but also calls out that we need to put people above profits and that the billionaire class and corporations have really hijacked our economy, and hijacked our democracy.

CABRERA: But that, respectfully, Warren and Sanders have been saying largely the same message when it comes to evening the playing field, when it comes to economic inequality and so forth. So the question being, why is Sanders breaking through in New Hampshire, while Elizabeth Warren, according to the latest numbers, is not?

ROJAS: I think you already pointed that out. Bernie Sanders ran for president four years ago. He did very well, by over two to one to Hillary Clinton, in the state, you have multiple candidates in this field, and I think that Elizabeth Warren is someone that we need to actually uplift.

[15:10:08]

A lot of people have been saying that her campaign is down, she is not in the best position in the polling, but Elizabeth Warren is running a campaign to win and is running on a similar message as I think Bernie Sanders and is going to continue to be also a national contender in this race, alongside folks like Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg.

CABRERA: Amy Klobuchar was asked last night about Hillary Clinton's claim that when in Congress, like Senator Bernie Sanders, and actually led to a nice moment. Let's watch.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Senator Klobuchar, you served with Senator Sanders in the Senate. Is he going to be able to get the support? Not if you like him, but is he going to be able to get the support he needs from Republicans?

KLOBUCHAR: Okay. I like Bernie just fine.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CABRERA: Joe, what do you make of Biden hugging Sanders, the current leader in New Hampshire?

TRIPPI: Oh, I just think that that was a good moment. And it was a jovial but also a moment which shows what all of the candidates have been saying, that in the end, regardless of what happens in this fight, they're all going to be unified behind somebody, whether it's Bernie, Biden, Amy or Warren or any of them, and Buttigieg included, obviously.

But I also think what you're seeing there is -- I think what's happening is these lanes that we've been talking about, and I think it's overdone, but they're starting to break down, right? And so Bernie is starting to draw support from the progressives who really feel that Pete or Biden or Amy are a threat and they want to unify behind somebody, that's going to be very tough to overcome.

Biden is suffering the same fate on the moderate side right now, and I think he's -- again, the unity thing is very important. That was what was trying to get signaled there, but I think that people are vying in two different lanes still. And we'll see how that plays out in New Hampshire on Tuesday.

CABRERA: We saw Amy Klobuchar in that last clip. She raised $2 million after her debate performance last night, which included moments like this one.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KLOBUCHAR: We have a president that literally blames everyone in the world and we have not talked about this enough. He blames Barack Obama for everything that goes wrong. He blames his Federal Reserve chair that he appointed himself. He blames the king of Denmark. Who does that? He blames the prime minister of Canada for, he claims, cutting him out of the Canadian version of Home Alone 2. Who does that?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CABRERA: Alexandra, Klobuchar is only polling at 5 percent in New Hampshire. Do you think her performance last night will help her enough?

ROJAS: I mean, there is no question. We differ a lot when it comes to policy, but Klobuchar came with it. She had a really, really strong debate performance. Though I think she's had strong debate performances in the past.

And she hasn't really seen that bump in the polls, I think, because she did so well with the vice president in Iowa, so well, fourth, fifth place, right, that there is maybe, but I would say, that, again, someone like Klobuchar, if they can't win in a state like New Hampshire, which arguably is part of her electability argument with voters like this, then I think it is going to be hard for her to make that case in Super Tuesday states and later down the line.

CABRERA: Alexander Rojas and Joe Trippi, thank you both for weighing in.

Back at the White House, an emboldened President Trump. Coming up, what one Trump adviser calls flushing out the pipes, the Friday night firings some fear is the beginning of President Trump's post- impeachment revenge campaign.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[15:15:00]

CABRERA: Just days after his acquittal by the Senate, we are seeing an emboldened President Trump, one who seems intent on getting revenge. Last night, he fired two administration officials who testified during the impeachment inquiry.

One is a decorated military man, Lieutenant Colonel Alexander Vindman, a Purple Heart recipient and a top Ukraine expert at the National Security Council. He was escorted out of the White House by security and told his services were no longer needed. His twin brother, a National Security Council attorney, was also fired suddenly with no explanation months after Vindman's emotional testimony before the House.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

LT. COL. ALEXANDER VINDMAN, FORMER DIRECTOR FOR EUROPEAN AFFAIRS, NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL: Next month will mark four years since my family arrived in the United States as refugees. When my father was 47 years old, he left behind his entire life, and the only home he had ever known, to start over in the United States, so that his three sons could have a better and safer life.

Dad, I'm sitting here today in the U.S. Capitol, talking to our elected professionals, talking to our elected professionals is proof that you made the right decision 40 years ago to leave the Soviet Union, come here to the United States of America in search of a better life for our family. Do not worry. I will be fine for telling the truth.

REP. SEAN MALONEY (D-NY): Why do you have confidence that you can do that and tell your dad not to worry?

VINDMAN: Congressman, because this is America. This is the country I've served and defended, that all of my brothers have served, and here, right matters.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CABRERA: The other official fired is Gordon Sondland, the U.S. ambassador to the European Union. He was a major donor to Trump's inaugural committee and he was a political appointee. The U.S. officials tell CNN Sondland was a dead man walking after statements like this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GORDON SONDLAND, FORMER AMBASSADOR TO THE EUROPEAN UNION: Everyone was in the loop. It was no secret. Everyone was informed via email on July 19th, days before the presidential call.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

[15:20:00]

CABRERA: An adviser to the president summed up the firing this way, flushing out the pipes. The adviser said it was necessary.

Joining us now, Samantha Vinograd, former senior adviser to the national security adviser under President Obama, and Timothy Naftali, a CNN Presidential Historian and former director of the Nixon Presidential Library.

Tim, Vindman's lawyer put a very powerful statement saying in part, quote, Lieutenant Colonel Vindman was asked to leave for telling the truth, his honor, his commitment to right frightened the powerful. Truth is not partisan. If we allow truthful voices to be silenced, we ignore their warnings eventually, there will be no one left to warn us.

What kind of chilling effect does this have?

TIMOTHY NAFTALI, CNN PRESIDENTIAL HISTORIAN: Well, the Senate of the United States gave President Trump a permission slip to engage in abuse of power. The Senate abdicated its responsibilities. There are some senators who stood apart from that and said they were worried about abuse of power.

But as a majority, the Senate sent a signal. The signal was well received by the Trump administration. Go ahead. Clean out the people that have raised questions about the president's use of power. And so on Friday, at the end of the week that saw the president acquitted, the Trump administration began a wave of retribution. I suspect it will not end. We saw the beginning.

What signal does this send? It means that anybody within our government who sees political activities or activities that are abuse of power, are even more -- have even more reason not to step up. They should. But we have whistleblower protection. We have things in place to protect those people. It is clear the president and his son, because Don Jr. also tweeted in a way that suggested an enemies list, the president and his son have sent a signal that you are not allowed to stand up for the Constitution in the Trump administration.

CABRERA: It's about loyalty, which we know is highly prized by this president, but he is not even taking a moment here to try to do it in a subtle way, to fire them. He is not making any excuses. And he is okay with the narrative being, it was done as revenge. This person is not loyal to me.

NAFTALI: Our founders believed in separation of powers. Why? Because they were afraid that any one branch would get too powerful. Why? Because there's an enormous amount of power. I mean, imagine how our Republic has grown since the 18th century. But they anticipated that the powerful would seek even more power. What the Senate did was it said to the executive branch, for whatever reason, do what you need to do, and that's exactly what the Trump administration is doing.

CABRERA: Sam, the president had seemed to foreshadow Vindman's dismissal earlier in the day. Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REPORTER: Mr. President, would you like to see Alexander Vindman out of your White House? Do you want Alexander --

DONALD TRUMP, U.S. PRESIDENT: Well, I'm not happy with him. Do you think I'm supposed to be happy with him? I'm not.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CABRERA: And now the end result is saying Ukraine is left with no real point person at the White House. And sources tell CNN major cuts could come to the National Security Council as early as next week. What would that mean?

SAMANTHA VINOGRAD, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY ANALYST: Well, just briefly on Lieutenant Colonel Vindman, it's not just the fact that President Trump removed him from his position, it's also the way that he did it. When I left the White House, I turned in my badge, turned in my devices and did an outbriefing with my successor.

Lieutenant Colonel Vindman being escorted off of the White House grounds by security is totally inappropriate. He wasn't a security risk and he obviously didn't have a time to actually transition his portfolio to anyone. For a president who says that he cares about Ukraine policy, he clearly doesn't or he would have done this in a different way.

Now, we have the reporting that the White House is, quote, unquote, trying to overhaul the NSC. Calling this an overhaul, Ana, is a misnomer. The White House has engaged, according to various reporting, in efforts to downsize the NSC significantly and to replace a lot of career officials with political appointees. There is a strong argument to be made that certain positions could be cut.

The NSC has gotten quite large. But as we see career officials cycled out and we see people like Lieutenant Colonel Vindman fired from their positions, the message is very clear. The president is turning the NSC from a policy entity into a political arm. The NSC is not supposed to serve as campaign surrogates or legal interns for the president. We are seeing the politicization of national security policy and that should worry everyone.

CABRERA: Tim, let me just ask you. If Nixon had had Senate trial and had been acquitted, that's a lot of ifs, what do you think would have happened to people like John Dean?

NAFTALI: Well, I mean, the short answer to that is that one of the unintended consequence of President Nixon's resignation at the timing of the resignation and Gerald Ford's pardoning of Nixon, is the American public never actually got a full sense of the many crimes that Richard Nixon committed.

[15:25:03]

And the chilling effect on future presidents that should have happened wasn't quite as effective. So a Nixon trial would have, I think, shared with the American people, a narrative of abuse of power that would have made clear that abuse of power is impeachable. And the arguments that President Trump's defenders made in the Senate would have rung so hollow, because the American public would have had the Senate trial of Richard Nixon, wait a second --

CABRERA: There would have been a precedent.

NAFTALI: There would have been a precedent.

So I think that some of what we are experiencing now is a re-run of the Nixon nightmare. But because we as Americans tend to have amnesia about history, it's okay, we're always a new nation, right, we're always reinventing ourselves, one of the consequences is what Donald Trump is doing now is he is following the playbook of Richard Nixon. We went through this once and we're about to go through it again.

CABRERA: Let me ask you, Sam, to react to Marco Rubio's tweet. He writes, Colonel Vindman wasn't fired, he is still an army officer, he was assigned to NSC to serve the president who has a right to have people he trusts on his staff. Sondland was a politically appointee. No point in having a political appointee who no longer has the president's confidence.

VINOGRAD: Well, Marco Rubio is differing with the president's son, Donald Trump Jr. who specifically did call these, the removal of Lieutenant Colonel Vindman a firing. But semantics aside, Ana, the fact of the matter is that the Vindmans were retaliated against because they did what I was asked to do as an NSC director, they reported concerns through legally protected channels. So it is a fact that they were professionally retaliated against for speaking the truth.

And going forward, I think we really have to think about what that means to recruitment and retention within the U.S. government more broadly. I mean, ask yourself, what kind of person is going to be willing to take a job at the White House at this point knowing that the key qualification from the president's perspective is a willingness not to speak up when they see wrongdoing. We are going to be attracting exactly the wrong kinds of people to the U.S. government and clearly signaling that the primary qualification for a national security job is a willingness to cover up future crimes by the president.

CABRERA: Samantha Vinograd and Tim Naftali, thank you both. Sam, I'll see you tomorrow for the presidential daily brief. Sam, you're back with me in just a bit.

Also, we're counting down to the next votes in the 2020 race. We're going to talk or take a walk down memory lane to some of the famous New Hampshire primary moments, when a small state shattered the political status quo.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BILL CLINTON, FORMER U.S. PRESIDENT: I think we know enough to say with some certainty that New Hampshire tonight has made Bill Clinton the comeback kid.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[15:32:25]

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BILL CLINTON, FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: They say I'm on the road and other people have questioned my life after years of public service. I'll tell you something. I'm going to give you this election back. And

if you give it to me, I won't be like George Bush. I will never forget who gave me a second chance. And I'll be there until the last dog dies, And I want you to remember it.

(CHEERING)

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CABRERA: Bill Clinton spoke those words in the run-up to the New Hampshire primary in 1992. His campaign was in a free-fall. From a fourth-place finish in Iowa, to reports of an extramarital affair to accusations of draft dodging. You can see why many people thought he was toast.

And yet, just six days after Clinton gave that speech in New Hampshire, the comeback kid was born.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CLINTON: Well, the evening is young.

(LAUGHTER)

CLINTON: And we don't know yet what the final tally will be. I think we know enough to say with some certainty that New Hampshire tonight has made Bill Clinton the comeback kid.

(CHEERING)

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CABRERA: Back with us now, CNN Presidential historian, Timothy Naftali.

Tim, I saw you enjoy those clips from afar, from many moons ago, it feels like, right?

Do you think there are any lessons to be taken away from Bill Clinton, for those who maybe didn't do as well in Iowa?

NAFTALI: Yes, it is how you make lemonade. In a sense, what was so amazing was how Bill Clinton took -- he didn't win. You know, he didn't actually win the primary. He did better. He did better. He outperformed. He did better than had been expected.

In a sense, he did a little bit of what Amy Klobuchar did in Iowa, as someone who, I mean, who overperformed or outperformed.

Think about New Hampshire is it's all about creating momentum. And to use a term that should pass away -- but it was used by George Herbert Walker Bush -- it is about the Big Mo.

CABRERA: OK.

NAFTALI: George Bush in 1980 had the Big Mo. He surprised everyone by beating Ronald Reagan in the Iowa caucus. He comes into New Hampshire, and Ronald Reagan deftly outperforms him, and does so on television. And Ronald Reagan becomes the frontrunner and never looks back.

CABRERA: Momentum, yes.

NAFTALI: So New Hampshire is all about shifting the expectations in the race. It hasn't always succeeded. McCain beats George W. Bush in 2000 but doesn't HE become the candidate.

[15:35:05]

CABRERA: Right.

NAFTALI: So New Hampshire --

(CROSSTALK)

CABRERA: Well, and then in 2008, right, let's talk about what happened there. Because that's when Barack Obama was on the rise.

Hillary Clinton is campaigning in Portsmouth, New Hampshire. A woman in a coffee shop asked her, what would normally be a throw-away question. And here's what happened next. Here's the question: How do you do it, how do you keep upbeat? And this is how Hillary Clinton responded.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HILLARY CLINTON, (D), FORMER SECRETARY OF STATE & FORMER PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: This is very personal for me. It is not just political. It is not just public. I see what is happening. We have to reverse it.

And some people think elections are a game. They think it's like who is up or who is down. It's about our country. It's about our kid's future.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CABRERA: She went on to win New Hampshire. Is that just an example of how sometimes being vulnerable can make a candidate stronger?

NAFTALI: Well, that is part of it. I think also there are some candidates who, whether it's fair or not, are not always viewed as authentic. And it's often -- it's just not fair in most cases.

What Hillary Clinton did in that moment was she reminded people that she's a human being and she showed emotion. And for a number of people, for whatever reason, that was all they needed to join the band bandwagon.

CABRERA: It helped them connect.

NAFTALI: It helped them connect. They said, OK, I'm willing to do it.

Bernie won in 2016. He wins New Hampshire. I mean, New Hampshire, New Hampshire's fickle. And what we've got to

see -- we've got to look to see if either Buttigieg or Bernie, or maybe Warren comes back, or Biden, or Klobuchar, whether they connect with New Hampshire and change the narrative. Where they surprise us.

And if they surprise us -- and I don't mean just the media -- I mean watchers and voters. If they surprise us and produce a moment, then there New Hampshire could propel them. We don't know yet. And that's what makes it so important.

CABRERA: Let me ask you about another moment because you talked about Bush versus Reagan earlier. And this is where Ronald Reagan showed his stuff.

This is 1980. A debate moderated by the "National Telegraph." Reagan's campaign had paid for this event. They wanted all of the candidates invited. The "Telegraph" just wanted Reagan and Bush.

And when the moderator tried to shut off Reagan's microphone, this happened.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

RONALD REAGAN, FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Is this on? Would you turn the mic on for me? You asked me if I am -- I am paying for this microphone.

(CHEERING)

(END VIDEO CLIP)

NAFTALI: Ronald Reagan was really good at using the phrase, we are paying or I am paying.

In the 1976 primary, he used -- he took advantage of the fact that Gerald Ford was trying to negotiate a treaty regarding the Panama Canal. And he made himself almost the nominee against an incumbent president in 1976 saying, "We paid for that canal."

And fast forward to 1980, he did a dirty trick. He and George W. Bush were supposed to have a one-on-one debate in New Hampshire. And Reagan, without telling Bush, invited all of the other candidates. And they all turned up.

(CROSSTALK)

NAFTALI: George Bush was not at his best. In fact, he looked like a deer that was caught in the headlights. George Bush didn't react well. He came out as petulant and petty. But he had been tricked. And Reagan knew exactly what he was doing and took advantage of this moment. And it changed everything.

By the way, that is pretty much the end. That was the end of George Herbert Walker Bush's campaign.

CABRERA: Right. Because Reagan did not only win New Hampshire. He went on to win 44 of the next --

(CROSSTALK)

CABRERA: -- next 44 states.

NAFTALI: That's why New Hampshire matters.

It doesn't necessarily mean it's going to set the timetable for the rest, but it could. And it has in the past.

CABRERA: I want to squeeze in one more, because there's that famous story of Jimmy Who. In 1975, Jimmy Carter went to a country store and introduced himself and said he was running for president. But the man at that store was hard of hearing. He didn't catch the whole name. He said, "Jimmy who?" Which became a catchphrase.

And now 45 years later, you have Pete Buttigieg playing up his rise, from a little a mayor in a smaller town that nobody really knew much about, South Bend, Indiana.

NAFTALI: Right. And Iowa is the first contest, right, the caucus. We all know a lot more about caucuses than we knew before.

New Hampshire is the first primary. It is the first time that there are, if you will, in a state-level presidential election.

And when Jimmy Carter wins, Jimmy Carter is now saying, I now can play with the big ones, I know I am now national.

So New Hampshire can turn someone who might have been a little-known regional candidate into a national candidate in one night.

CABRERA: All right.

Tim Naftali, that was a lot of fun. Thank you.

NAFTALI: Than you, Ana.

CABRERA: Thank you so much.

[15:40:01]

With the election right around the corner, take a look back at one of the most hard-fought presidential witnesses throughout history with our CNN original series, "RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE." It returns Sunday night, February 16th, at 9:00 on CNN.

The other news we're following this afternoon, the first case of a U.S. citizen dying of coronavirus. We will take a look at the drastic measures to stop this outbreak, including cruise ship passengers stranded at sea in what they describe as floating prisons.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CABRERA: For the first time, an American has now died from the coronavirus. The U.S. embassy in Beijing confirms the 60-year-old died at a hospital in the Chinese city of Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak that has now gone global.

On Friday, China suffered its deadliest day yet, reporting 86 deaths just in the single day, bringing the total number of fatalities now to more than 720.

[15:45:02]

Outside mainland China, the virus has raced across continents affecting tens of thousands in 27 countries and territories.

New today, CNN has learned that 800 Americans were evacuated from Wuhan on Friday on two flights to the U.S. where they now will be quarantined for two weeks.

This, as thousands of cruise ship passengers find themselves stranded at sea, with no port allowing them entry.

CNN's Matt Rivers has more on that part of the story from Tokyo.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MATT RIVERS, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): David Holst turns 64 on Sunday. Where he'll be on that day, he has no idea.

DAVID HOLST, QUARANTINED CRUISE SHIP PASSENGER: Am I nervous? Yes, I am nervous. Am I scared? I'm not sure I would say scared but I'm certainly nervous.

RIVERS: David and his wife, Judy, left on the "Westerdam," a Holland America cruise, from Singapore on January 16th for a dream 30-day trip. All went to plan until February 1st and a stop in Hong Kong, a city battling the coronavirus.

Passengers spent the day onshore and new passengers joined and so off they sailed.

But when they tried to go to next stop Manila, they were turned away and Taiwan authorities banned cruise ships, too, as did authorities here in Japan.

(on camera): Everywhere the ship was supposed to go after February 1st turned it away, with each place citing fears that the virus might be onboard, even though, so far, no cases have been found.

HOLST: Stressful, emotionally taxing, frustrating. No one wants us. Holland American advise that they are in discussions with the State Department, U.S. Navy and Dutch government, trying to find a solution and I have no idea what that will be or when it will be.

RIVERS (voice-over): Holst is frustrated with not only the decision to go to Hong Kong but what he called a lack of health checks and screenings done at the time. He believes the company didn't take the virus serious enough.

HOLST: People are angry. I think the tension is rising. And everyone on this boat has lived for the last seven days under the dark shadow of a bell ringing and being told we have the virus onboard.

RIVERS (on camera): In response, Holland America says they chose to sail for Hong Kong because the U.S. Centers for Disease Control's warning levels didn't indicate that Hong Kong was unsafe.

(voice-over): Since then, the company says they prevent anyone who's traveled through China within the last two weeks to board its ships. They're conducting pre- and onboard medical screenings and imposing additional cleaning measures, among other things. They'll also issue refunds.

Though that may not bring much relief for folks on the "Westerdam." David Holst managed to send us this video from aboard of passengers just sitting and waiting, no idea where they'll go next.

Matt Rivers, CNN, Tokyo.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CABRERA: It is Oscar weekend. But a war faces a dark comedy. A preview of the best picture showdown everyone will be watching at the Oscars when we come back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[15:52:39]

CABRERA: Hollywood's biggest night is upon us. The Oscars are tomorrow with very best in film, picked in a process that sounds a lot like the Iowa caucuses.

CNN's Stephanie Elam explains.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: And the winner is --

GLENN CLOSE, ACTRESS: And the Oscar goes to --

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Come get your bright, shiny thing so I can go home to bed.

STEPHANIE ELAM, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The Oscars showdown is set.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: "Parasite."

ELAM: All signs point to a Best Picture face-off between "Parasite" and "1917."

Why these two?

REESE WITHERSPOON, ACTRESS: "1917."

(CHEERING) ELAM: "1917" won the Producer's Guild Award, which has predicted 21 of the last 30 Oscar winners. And the film's unique style, as if shot in one long take, has impressed Hollywood.

SAM MENDES, DIRECTOR: We didn't have that nice, relaxed period where you have a -- you sit around with a cup of coffee and discuss whether you want to keep the scene in or put it out or take a line in. Everything that we shot was in the movie.

UNIDENTIFIED ACTRESS: Is it OK with you?

ELAM: "Parasite" has momentum after the Screen Actors Guild made it the first foreign film to win a SAG award for Best Ensemble.

It could do the same at the Oscars, where actors make up the largest voting bloc.

JUNG JI-SO, ACTRESS: It would be blurring the lines between East and West. And providing hope that everyone on this earth can coexist. And that is why we must win Best Picture.

ELAM: But Oscar can surprise, thanks, in part, to a Best Picture voting method that's similar to a caucus. Voters rank nominees from one to nine. Films with few number-one votes are disqualified, and those ballots instead count for the number-two choice, until one film has over 50 percent of all ballots.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We didn't expect it, honestly.

ELAM: Some think "Green Book" benefited from that weighted ballot last year.

At the Oscars, there's always a chance for a plot twist.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: In this town, it can all change.

Stephanie Elam Hollywood.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CABRERA: This just into CNN. What seems to be do-or-die time from the Andrew Yang campaign. This is a fundraising e-mail just sent to his supporters.

In which Yang says, quote, "If we miss this fundraising goal and our target finish in New Hampshire, I don't believe we can continue contending at the same level. It's that simple. We thought after Iowa we would get a big bump in fundraising and support, but even though we finished better than expected in the polls, the confusion and failure to see results for days has hurt our narrative and our fundraising."

[15:55:01]

More on the 2020 race for the White House. As we head into the next primary, could we be headed for a contested Democratic convention? Why one analyst says the conditions are ripe. (COMMERCIAL BREAK)