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Iowa Dem Party Has Buttigieg on Top of Delegate Count; Sanders Campaign May Take Action Regarding Iowa Results; Mike Bloomberg Attacked at Debate, Despite Not Being on Stage; Trump to Hold Campaign Rally in New Hampshire on Eve of Primary. Aired 8-9p ET
Aired February 09, 2020 - 20:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[20:00:00]
ANA CABRERA, CNN HOST: Breaking news here on CNN, results from the Iowa caucus has finally and the Democratic candidate who will very likely claim the most delegates in that state. Now remember it is the delegate count, not the popular vote that wins the Iowa caucuses.
And the Iowa Democratic Party tonight handing Pete Buttigieg 14 delegates, that's two more than Senator Bernie Sanders, six more than Senator Elizabeth Warren, and rounding out the 41 delegates awarded by the state of Iowa, former vice president Joe Biden with six delegates, and Senator Amy Klobuchar with one. And that's all.
Five Democratic candidates splitting Iowa's 41 national delegates. This is not set in stone yet. There is still time for any of those candidates to request a recount or a recanvass, but if those figures that I just showed you hold, the former mayor of South Bend, Indiana, Pete Buttigieg, looks poised to take home the most delegates from Iowa. And if those figures hold, he will be the winner of the Iowa caucuses.
Let's go straight to Des Moines, Iowa, and CNN's Dianne Gallagher.
Dianne, we are learning at least one campaign plans to ask for a recanvass of those Iowa results?
DIANNE GALLAGHER, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes, and Ana, look, the Iowa State Democrats may be ready to put the caucuses behind them, and have those results be finalized, but at least one campaign, that of Senator Bernie Sanders, has said you can expect some action from them tomorrow, telling our colleague Ryan Nobles just in the past hour that they do intend to ask for some recanvassing, just partial recanvassing on some precincts where they have noticed some discrepancies.
Now, look, the Iowa party was looking at discrepancies that were presented to them by campaigns of Sanders, also Senator Elizabeth Warren and former mayor Pete Buttigieg, as well as some county chairs. There were those things that they've been looking at here. They feel comfortable with these results, saying that this is what they were able to do after revising about 3 percent of the total precincts in the entire state, and they said that at this point they do believe that, again, Mayor Buttigieg would come out ahead of this, but it's important here, Ana, to say that these are not set in stone. They have until noon here in Iowa, that's Central Time, 1:00 Eastern
until tomorrow. And the delegate counts are extremely important. This is something that, while people may be ready to be done with Iowa, that these delegates will matter, especially come the convention time. So it makes sense that even though the candidates maybe publicly are saying they're ready to just move on, their campaigns are quite focused on the delegate count here in making sure that they get things right in Iowa.
CABRERA: Yes. That's right, Dianne Gallagher, thank you.
Let's go to Ryan Nobles in Manchester, New Hampshire, because, Ryan, you got a chance to speak to the campaign manager for Senator Bernie Sanders last hour. Fill us in.
RYAN NOBLES, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes. That's right, Ana, and I think it seems pretty clear here that at the very least the Sanders campaign is going to run out the clock on the Iowa caucuses so that there isn't any level of clarity from voters here in New Hampshire as to who the definitive winner is before they go to the polls on Tuesday. Now that's not necessarily their motivation. They seem to be more interested in making sure that the results that we get out of Iowa are as accurate as possible.
And so they do have this one last attempt here to make sure that that count is accurate. And that is they can request either a partial or a full recanvass of the count to the Iowa State Democratic Party by 1:00 Eastern tomorrow. And I asked campaign manager Faiz Shakir if they plan to do that, and this is what he told me not too long ago.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
NOBLES: The first question I have for you, Faiz, is -
FAIZ SHAKIR, CAMPAIGN MANAGER, BERNIE 2020: Yes. Thank you, Ryan.
NOBLES: We're in a situation now where your campaign -- yes. Your campaign still has the ability to ask for a canvass of even specific precincts as I understand it by 1:00 Eastern tomorrow. Do you plan on doing that given the results that we saw here tonight?
SHAKIR: Yes, Ryan. You can expect us to be asking the Iowa Democratic Party for a recanvass of the discrepancies that we have identified and found for them. We will be searching for and identifying even more. It's been handled incompetently from our perspective and we will be asking them to take a look at some of these obvious discrepancies that have affected our count and I think after it's all said and done it should be the case that we have the same number of national delegates as Pete Buttigieg.
So we'll see how this plays out, Ryan. But you can expect some action from the Sanders campaign tomorrow.
NOBLES: All right. I wonder, Faiz, and that is an important piece of news that you've shared with us that you do plan to do some sort of challenge to the results. But do you think that this matters to New Hampshire voters? I mean, you're at a rally right now. How many New Hampshire voters are asking Senator Sanders or any of their campaign members about, you know, the results in Iowa? Does it matter at this point?
SHAKIR: Yes. Not many. There's 2,000 people in that room. They don't really care. They think -- they know that we won with 6,000 plus votes in Iowa but you're asking me the question about what is going on with the Iowa results so I'm telling you an honest answer.
[20:05:03]
And the truth of the matter is, Ryan, that we want to fight for every delegate that this campaign has earned and if we feel like we have been wrongly stopped from earning those delegates we're going to fight for them, and that's our job.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
NOBLES: So there's a number of layers to this, Ana. Obviously you have just making make sure that the results are right, which seems very important to the Sanders campaign. They invested millions of dollars. They have hundreds of volunteers. A big staff on the ground. And they want to make sure that work doesn't go in vain.
There's also the symbolic aspect to all of it. They would like to leave Iowa knowing that they won it all. And then you also have just the raw delegate count. Right now Pete Buttigieg is going to leave Iowa with more delegates. And we don't know how this whole delegate process is gonna play out, but it could come down to something as small as two delegates that decide the winner in Milwaukee. So you take all three of those things into account and I think that's why you see the Sanders campaign taking this action, taking every available opportunity they have to make sure that that count comes in correctly -- Ana.
CABRERA: And so now we have Iowa just lingering as we get closer and closer to the New Hampshire primary. Do we think this could have any tangible impact on the vote there in New Hampshire?
NOBLES: Well, you heard Faiz respond to that question. He doesn't think so. I think in general answer is no, but the one caveat I'd offer to that, Ana, is that there still is a fair number of New Hampshire voters that haven't made up their mind yet. You know, it could be anywhere between 10 percent and 15 percent of these voters who are still thinking about it, and the winner of the Iowa caucus probably plays at least some role in that.
So if this ends up being a very close election on Tuesday night, which I think could end up will being a close election, perhaps something like this is lingering in the background. I don't think it's going to be demonstrable. It's not something that, you know, we're gonna write stories about in the aftermath, but there's a reason that these campaigns are taking this so seriously and even the vote here in the New Hampshire probably plays a role in all that.
CABRERA: And our CNN poll and University of New Hampshire polling out just this morning had 11 percent people saying they are still undecided there in New Hampshire.
Ryan Nobles, thank you for that.
NOBLES: Right.
CABRERA: Coming up here in the NEWSROOM, the billionaire candidate who isn't in New Hampshire this weekend. Michael Bloomberg ups his ads spending as his rivals claim he's trying to buy the nomination.
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CABRERA: The Democratic candidates are pulling out all the stops, trying to convince New Hampshire voters to back them in Tuesday's primary. Well, all but one candidate, Michael Bloomberg. He's not on the ballot in New Hampshire and he wasn't a choice in the Iowa caucuses either, but he and his billions were targets at the New Hampshire debate.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. ELIZABETH WARREN (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I don't think anyone ought to be able to buy their way into a nomination or to be president of the United States.
SEN. AMY KLOBUCHAR (D-MN), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I didn't come from money, and I just simply think people don't look at the guy in the White House and say, can we get someone richer? I don't think they think that.
SEN. BERNIE SANDERS (D-VT), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: There are millions of people who can desire the run for office, but I guess if you're worth $60 billion and you can spent several hundred millions on commercials, you have a slight advantage. That is nonsense.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CABRERA: I want to bring in Bloomberg's senior adviser, Tim O'Brien.
Thank you, Tim, for being here.
TIMOTHY O'BRIEN, SENIOR ADVISER, BLOOMBERG 2020 CAMPAIGN: Hi, Ana.
CABRERA: Bloomberg hasn't been tested yet. He hasn't been on the debate stage. Voters haven't had to wait in line to put their names behind his. How can one argue he hasn't bought his place in this race, at least up until this point?
O'BRIEN: Because, Ana, I think you can buy exposure. You can't buy an election. Mike Bloomberg has been tested for decades. He's got more governing experience than anyone else running. He has had a vast impact on non-rich guy issues as a philanthropist. He's been a successful businessman, and voters clearly are coming to understand that. The money has bought him exposure, it hasn't bought him election. There's a long tradition in this country of people with resources
getting involved with public service, whether that was George Washington, Franklin Roosevelt of JFK. And I don't think Mike Bloomberg is an exception to that rule. I think the other candidates are paying attention to him because voters are paying attention to him. And voters are paying attention to him because Mike Bloomberg has a very clear and distinguished track record of solutions around the problems most American voters care the most about, health care, education, the climate crisis, gun violence, on and on.
And I think that there's clearly been a problem with organization and strategic fortitude in the Democratic Party. We saw this in Iowa. The resources that Mike's bringing into this campaign come at a time when the DNC has about $8 million in its coffers. The RNC and Trump jointly have about $180 million or so, and we expect to see them spent probably another $900 million in outside PAC money coming into this election.
Mike Bloomberg sees this election as the culmination of his life's work.
CABRERA: OK.
O'BRIEN: He is putting his resources in to shore up the party, and as we've said, these resources will back any candidate no matter who the nominee is.
CABRERA: OK. Well, so let me ask you about Bernie Sanders' campaign because he's seeing some momentum right now and he has built his campaign essentially taking on billionaires, the uber, uber wealthy, people like Bloomberg. How will Mike Bloomberg be able to unify this party, and convince maybe the 20 percent to 30 percent of primary voters who are passionately behind Sanders' campaign to back a billionaire?
O'BRIEN: Because Mike Bloomberg isn't just a billionaire. He has been successful just like Thomas Edison and Steve Jobs and Oprah Winfrey have been. I don't think wealth is a disqualifier. Mike Bloomberg cares very passionately about most of the progressive issues that Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders have focused on.
The difference is, in Mike's case, the math adds up. He wants to be transparent with voters and taxpayers about how their funds will be used.
[20:15:04]
He doesn't want this to denigrate into name-calling. He wants to unify the party. He knows the main focus of the Democrats' attention should be the five-alarm fire in the White House in the person of Donald Trump. He is very purposeful about making that the target of this campaign, and he knows he can bring a long experience with organizational and strategic aptitude to this race.
CABRERA: And you are not only senior adviser to Michael Bloomberg, you are also the author of "Trump Nation: The Art of Being the Donald." O'BRIEN: Correct.
CABRERA: So you have a very unique perspective. The president, you know, just had a very good week. He was acquitted, his approval rating hits its highest ever, and Gallup at 49 percent. We saw a good jobs report on Friday. What have you advised Bloomberg about how to beat Trump that maybe no one else has tried?
O'BRIEN: Well, I think, you know, Mike has long ago recognized what a threat Donald Trump is to this country. A Donald Trump who gets past Robert Mueller's investigation, and then through a congressional impeachment inquiry and then gets reelected is a Donald Trump who is completely unfettered. He's going to be a threat to institutions and values that have held this country together in a bipartisan way I would add for a very long time.
Mike understands the full scope of that threat, and I think we're lucky and fortunate at this point in our history that we have a private citizen with the experience and capabilities Mike Bloomberg has to enter this race in full force to take Trump on.
CABRERA: Again, Bloomberg is not competing in these early contests but he is pumping tens of millions into the ads all across the country. He's taking on Trump, not the fellow Democrats in the race. Joe Biden tried that, but now the gloves are off, following Iowa. How is Bloomberg preparing to eventually take on his Democratic opponents? Because he has to get through them first.
O'BRIEN: Well, so there's only 4 percent of the delegates at stake in these first four races, Ana. Mike wasn't on the ballot in those four states because of the -- you know, he entered the race too late to be on those ballots but from our perspective, all of the other candidates are late taking on Donald Trump. When these candidates come out of these first four states, we will be already in -- have set up shops and out in force in over 40 states and territories with over 2100 people on our team and that's growing.
By our right, they're late to this battle, but we're early in the battle against Donald Trump. We've been crossing paths with him and his team in a number of states where there aren't any other Democrats contesting anything yet. And we obviously --
CABRERA: But will you -- well, will you --
O'BRIEN: I'm sorry.
CABRERA: Will you promise then that he's not going to go on the attack against fellow Democratic candidates?
O'BRIEN: Our view right now is all Democrats should stay focused on Donald Trump. It's a time for unity. Mike is someone who can unify the different branches of this party. Mike has been campaigning. He's been in over 24 states at this point. He's been in dozens of cities. This is not just an ad-driven campaign. We are everywhere. We're in people's doorsteps. We're going to continue to talk to voters about the issues they care the most about. CABRERA: Well, Bloomberg isn't competing in New Hampshire right now.
Voters there were asked if he was campaigning for the primary, would they consider supporting him? And 63 percent said no. Could his strategy to skip these first four contests backfire?
O'BRIEN: Well, you know, national polls right now have Mike at a number of well-regarded, very extensive national polls. They have Mike in third place. So -- and I hardly think that Iowa voters and New Hampshire voters are representative of the rest of the country. Mike has clearly already had an impact nationally. I think voters, as they get to know the full scope of his story, he's a self-made man. He put himself through college working as a parking lot attendant.
He has delivered epic public policy change across gun violence, the climate crisis, public health, education, job creation, that no other candidate competing right now can lay claim to, and I think as voters get to know that, as they already have, he has become a force to be reckoned with.
CABRERA: Tim, I don't know if you watched last night, but "SNL" included Bloomberg in its skit of the last debate even though Bloomberg didn't take part. Take a look.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Let's take a quick word from our sponsor tonight. Bloomberg. Are you a registered Democrat thinking these can't be my only choices? Then try Bloomberg.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CABRERA: Tim, is that how you want Bloomberg to be perceived, as an alternative?
O'BRIEN: I think Mike Bloomberg is not an alternative. Mike Bloomberg is at the center of people's thinking. Again, this is reflected in the polls, it's reflected in the fact that other candidates in the Democratic stage have taken ample notice of him, and have gone on the attack. And of course first and foremost that he has preoccupied Donald Trump to no end over the last few weeks.
[20:20:07]
Donald Trump wouldn't be obsessed with Mike Bloomberg if Donald Trump didn't recognize that Mike Bloomberg was the most electable candidate in the field right now and he poses the gravest threat to Donald Trump. The president knows that, voters know that, and I'm sure the comedy writers at "SNL" will catch up soon, too.
CABRERA: Tim O'Brien, thank you very much for being here.
O'BRIEN: Thank you, Ana.
CABRERA: Be sure to stay with CNN for the big picture. Special live coverage of the New Hampshire primary, starts Tuesday at 4:00 p.m. Eastern here on CNN. Still ahead here in the NEWSROOM, as the Democrats sweep New Hampshire
ahead of Tuesday's primary, President Trump is opening his playbook, planning his first rally since he was acquitted. And it's in New Hampshire. His strategy, next.
Plus the world has watched their every move and now CNN presents the story of the world's most famous royal family, "The Windsors: Inside the Royal Dynasty" premiere next Sunday at 10:00 p.m. on CNN.
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CABRERA: President Trump is making sure he isn't forgotten as the Democrats ramp up their 2020 contests. The New Hampshire primary is just two days away. And tomorrow President Trump will travel to the Granite State for a campaign rally of his own in Manchester. It will be Trump's first big rally since he was acquitted in his impeachment trial. And you can expect him to hit the Democrats and continue his post-impeachment rhetoric, criticizing the process.
In fact on the day of his acquittal, Trump actually tweeted out this video, showing him running for president essential forever.
CNN's Kristen Holmes is at the White House.
Kristen, what else might we expect at the president's first campaign rally post-acquittal?
KRISTEN HOMES, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, Ana, if that rally looks anything like President Trump's Twitter feed today, expect him to be in full attack mode. Despite his acquittal, it is clear that President Trump is still reeling over the impeachment. He spent the day behind closed doors, essentially tweeting all day long, hitting everyone, including some of those senators who voted against him.
I want to read one of these two here. It says, "They are really mad at Senator Joe Munchkin," he means Joe Manchin. "In West Virginia. He couldn't understand the transcripts. Romney could but didn't want to." Now he also hit Senator Doug Jones, the Democrat from Alabama, saying he couldn't wait to beat him. And then he took on Democrats. Not only on impeachment, but also on Iowa, saying, "The Dems are crazed. They will do anything. Honesty and truth don't matter to them. They are badly wounded. Iowa vote count was a disaster for them."
To be clear here, it is very obvious that these messages are meant for his base. They are meant to rile up his supporters. But they're also something that we know more moderate Republicans have privately and some publicly wished that he would not do. Not put these attacks on Twitter. Not do this name calling.
And, to be clear, President Trump won in 2016 in New Hampshire, shocking those political establishment when he won that primary, and that was the time that we essentially saw him using this rhetoric. So the big question now is that we know in 2020, he has to court those moderates. Will he be able to change his rhetoric? It doesn't seem likely. We haven't seen him do it yet. And if he doesn't, how is the campaign going to actually do that outreach to those moderates who are at times very turned off by his attacks and his rhetoric.
CABRERA: Kristen Holmes at the White House tonight. Thank you.
He is the wry observer of everything political and politically incorrect. Coming up, CNN's Fareed Zakaria goes one-on-one with Bill Maher to talk Trump.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BILL MAHER, HOST, "REAL TIME": If this is a superhero movie, my favorite kind, this is the moment when Superman is on the ground, you know, the kryptonite has weakened him. And I don't know how we get to the end of the movie. I know in a superhero movie, it happens because they always win, but this is life. I don't know how we get from here or this week to that place, November 3rd where he's defeated and leaves, which of course I don't think he's going to do.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
[20:30:00]
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ANA CABRERA, CNN HOST: It's no secret that Bill Maher dislikes the president. He often calls Trump a criminal and a racist, so why does he say this election could be over before it even begins? Here's our Fareed Zakaria's one-on-one with Bill Maher.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
FAREED ZAKARIA, CNN HOST: So, what do you think of this week for Donald Trump?
BILL MAHER, HOST, REAL TIME AND POLITICALLY INCORRECT: I thought it was his best week ever and the most depressing week for me, as someone who is not a fan of Donald Trump, and what he's doing to this country. It was chilling. The -- you know, I knew when he did the State of the Union Address and he stuck to the prompter, which I was very surprised, but we've seen that before.
Teleprompter Trump and then Teletubby Trump is coming soon because, you know, I always say, this man has a disease, a malignant narcissistic personality disorder. It's a real thing. He could not help himself from doing that. It was going to come out. Whoever convinced him on Tuesday to stick to the prompter was very good, because that's hard for him. He had 100 off-ramps where he could've done what he usually does.
There was no looking at the prompter and then going so true, like, you know, he had never seen it before, which he probably doesn't usually see it. But then, Thursday was just horrible with these veiled threats, you know. Comey, we're going to see what happens, people are in jail, that language.
ZAKARIA: And why do you think he never pays any price for that?
MAHER: Because the worst thing that could possibly have happened that we all feared and talked about, has happened. He's normalized. Anything you see, enough, becomes normal. You don't notice it. So, he's in a great position. The bad is baked into the cake. His fans either love it, because it's trolling or it's just him. And lots of other people are like, yes, I know that's him.
But, you know, we all know crazy people in our lives, and some of them function, some of them are in our family, and you just can't sort of accept that. And every time he's just this horrible jerk, I think a lot of people go, yes, but that's part and parcel to be a strong leader and he's getting things done. And if you didn't know the facts and you watched that State of the Union, it was very effective and the showmanship, you know, that pulled out every stop with the medals and the marine being reunited.
I mean, that's what he does. And that's going to be hard to beat. I -- if this is a superhero movie, my favorite kind, this is the moment when Superman is on the ground. You know, the kryptonite has weakened him. And I don't know how we get to the end of the movie. I know in a superhero movie happens, because they always win, but this is life.
[20:35:08]
I don't know how we get from here, this week, to that place, November 3rd, where he's defeated and leaves which, of course, I don't think he's going to do.
ZAKARIA: And how do you cover somebody who's been normalized like that? Because surely part of the humor, you need people to feel outrage.
MAHER: Yes. Well, I mean, it's not hard to point out the myriad flaws he has and the crazy things he does, and it's still fodder for comedy. I'm not worried about the comedy. There's more comedy in this man than any six presidents. Presidents usually have one thing about them. You know, Bush was dumb, we said, and Clinton was horny, and Chris Christie was overweight, whatever it is.
This guy is everything. You know, he's horny and he's a racist, and he's a criminal, and he's fat, and he's got crazy hair and Stormy Daniels, it just never ends with this guy. So, I'm not worried about the comedy. I'm worried about the country. And I don't -- you know, the other depressing thing about this week was, you know, at his best moment, the Democrats are -- they just look like the gang who can't shoot straight or can't run straight.
And if they can't get their act together soon, it's going to be over before it begins. I mean, he won last time with nothing and now, he's got money and, you know, he's been president. And as I say, he's normalized to a lot of people. I saw 44 percent of Democrats think Democrats are going to win. No, we can't.
ZAKARIA: One of the things that I was struck by, I had Jared Kushner on -- MAHER: Yes.
ZAKARIA: -- last week. And he said, don't forget, two percent of the people who disapproved of Mitt Romney voted for him, 15 percent of the people who disapproved of Donald Trump voted for him in 2016.
MAHER: Yes.
ZAKARIA: In other words, I think people are forgetting that there are a lot of people who do think that Trump as a character is, you know, does lots of vulgar things that they wouldn't -- they wouldn't approve of, but --
MAHER: Yes.
ZAKARIA: -- when it's time to vote.
MAHER: That's just him. You know, that's -- and he is authentic in that way. You know, he's authentically an a-hole, you know? And the people like -- in an age that is absent facts and a lot of education, authenticity rules the day. That's why Bernie Sanders also does so well. He's authentic. People know that he -- I think that's why we wound up ahead of Elizabeth Warren. We saw her for a long period of time and she came off looking less authentic than he is.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
CABRERA: Countdown to the next votes in the 2020 race. We're going to take a walk down memory lane to some famous New Hampshire primary moments when a small state shattered the political status quo.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BILL CLINTON, FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I think we know enough to say with some certainty that New Hampshire tonight has made Bill Clinton the comeback kid.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[20:40:00]
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CLINTON: They say, I'm on the road because other people have questioned my life, after years of public service. I'll tell you something. I'm going to give you this election back. And if you give it to me, I won't be like George Bush, I'll never forget who gave me a second chance and I'll be there for you until the last dog dies. And I want you to remember.
(END VIDEO CLIP) CABRERA: When Bill Clinton spoke those words in the run-up to the New Hampshire primary in 1992, his campaign was in a free fall from the fourth-place finish in Iowa, to reports of an extra marital affair, to accusations of draft dodging. You can see why many people thought he was toast. And yet, just six days after Clinton gave that speech in New Hampshire, the comeback kid was born.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CLINTON: While the evening is young and we don't know yet what the final tally will be, I think we know enough to say with some certainty, that New Hampshire tonight has made Bill Clinton the comeback kid.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CABRERA: Back with us now, CNN Presidential Historian, Timothy Naftali. I saw you enjoyed those clips from afar, from a many, many moons ago, it feels like, right? Do you think there are any lessons to be taken away from Bill Clinton, for those who maybe didn't do as well in Iowa?
TIMOTHY NAFTALI, CNN PRESIDENTIAL HISTORIAN: Yes, it's how you make lemonade. I mean, the sense is that what was so amazing and -- was how Bill Clinton took -- he didn't win, right? You know, he didn't actually win the primary. He did better. He did better. He outperformed. He did better than had been expected. In a sense, he did a little bit what Amy Klobuchar did -- Klobuchar did in Iowa, someone who -- I mean, who was -- who overperformed or outperformed.
The thing about New Hampshire is that it's all about creating momentum. And to use a term that should pass away, but it was used by George Herbert Walker Bush, it's about the big mo.
CABRERA: OK.
NAFTALI: George Bush in 1980, had the big mo. He surprised everyone by beating Ronald Reagan in the Iowa caucuses. And he comes into New Hampshire, and Ronald Reagan deftly outperforms him and thus so on television. And Ronald Reagan becomes a front-runner and, of course, never looks back.
CABRERA: The momentum. Yes.
NAFTALI: So, New Hampshire is all about shifting the expectations in the race.
[20:45:09]
It hasn't always succeeded. You know, McCain beats George W. Bush in 2000, but he doesn't become the candidate. So, New Hampshire --
CABRERA: Well, even in 2008, right? Let's talk about what happened there because that's when Barack Obama was on the rise. Hillary Clinton is campaigning in Portsmouth, New Hampshire. A woman in a coffee shop asked her what would normally have been a throwaway question. And here's what happened next. This is the question, how do you do it? How do you keep upbeat? And here's how Hillary Clinton responded.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
HILLARY CLINTON, THEN-DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: This is very personal for me. It's not just political, it's not just public. I see what's happening. And we have to reverse it. And some people think elections are a game, they think it's like who's up or who's down. It's about our country, it's about our kids' future.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CABRERA: She went on to win New Hampshire. Is that just an example of how sometimes being vulnerable can make a candidate stronger?
NAFTALI: Well, that's part of it. I think also there are some candidates who -- whether it's fair or not, are not always viewed as authentic. And it's often -- it's just not fair in most cases. What Hillary Clinton did in that moment where she reminded people that she's a human being and she showed emotion. And for a number of people, for whatever reason, that was all they needed to join the bandwagon.
CABRERA: It would help them connect.
NAFTALI: It helped them connect, and they said, OK, I'm willing to do it. You know, Bernie won in 26 -- in 2016. He wins New Hampshire. I mean, New Hampshire -- New Hampshire is fickle. And what we've got to see, we got to look to see if either Buttigieg or Bernie or maybe Warren comes back or Biden or Klobuchar, whether they connect with New Hampshire and change the narrative, whether they surprise us.
And if they surprise us, and I don't mean just the media, I mean -- I mean, watchers and voters -- if they surprise us and produce a moment, then their New Hampshire could propel them really far. We just don't know yet. And that's what makes it so important.
CABRERA: Let me ask you about another moment because you talked about Bush versus Reagan, earlier. And this is where Ronald Reagan really showed his tough side. This is in 1980, it was a debate moderated by the Nashua Telegraph, Reagan's campaign had paid for this event. They wanted all the candidates invited. The Telegraph really just wanted Reagan and Bush. And when the moderator tried to shut off Reagan's microphone, this happened.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
RONALD REAGAN, THEN-PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Is this on?
CROWD: Yes.
REAGAN: Mr. Green --
JON BREEN, MODERATOR: Turn off mic --
REAGAN: -- you asked me if you would -- I am paying for this microphone, Mr. Green.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
NAFTALI: Ronald Reagan was really good at using the phrase, we are paying or I'm paying. In the 1976 primary, he used -- he took advantage of the fact that Gerald Ford was trying to negotiate a treaty regarding the Panama Canal. And he made himself almost the nominee against an incumbent president in 1970 by saying we paid for that Canal. Fast-forward to 1980, actually, he did a bit of a dirty trick. He and George H.W. Bush were supposed to have a one-on-one debate in New Hampshire.
And Reagan, without telling Bush, invited all the other candidates, and they all turned up. George Bush was not at his best. In fact, he looked like a deer with, you know, who's caught in the headlights. George Bush didn't react very well. He actually came off as (INAUDIBLE) pity. But he had been tricked. And so, Reagan, who knew exactly what he was doing, then took advantage of this moment.
CABRERA: Yes.
NAFTALI: And it changed everything. By the way, that is pretty much the end. That was the end of George Herbert Walker Bush's --
CABRERA: Right.
NAFTALI: -- campaign.
CABRERA: Because Reagan didn't only win New Hampshire, he went on to win 44 of the next primaries.
NAFTALI: That's why New Hampshire matters.
CABRERA: Yes.
NAFTALI: It doesn't necessarily mean it's going to set the -- it's going to set the timetable for the rest, but it could, and it has in the past.
CABRERA: I want to squeeze in one more. Because there's that famous story of Jimmy who? This is in 1975, Jimmy Carter went to a country store in Hooksett, he introduced himself and said he was running for president. But the man at that store was hard of hearing. He didn't catch the whole name, and he said, Jimmy who? Which became a catchphrase.
And now 45 years later, you have Pete Buttigieg playing up his rise from a little, you know, mayor in a smaller town, nobody really knew about much about, South Bend, Indiana.
NAFTALI: Well, right. And again, this is -- Iowa is the first contest, right? The caucus, we all know a lot more about caucuses than we knew before. New Hampshire is the first primary. It's the first time that there -- if you will, a state-level and a state-level presidential election. And when Jimmy Carter wins, Jimmy Carter is saying, I now -- I now can play with the big ones. I am now a national figure. So, New Hampshire can turn someone who might have been a little-known regional candidate into a national candidate, in one night.
[20:50:09]
CABRERA: All right. Tim Naftali, that was a lot of fun. Thank you.
NAFTALI: Thank you, Ana.
CABRERA: Thank you so much. And now as we head to break, I want to bring you a live look at beautiful Keane, New Hampshire. T-minus two days until the primary.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CABRERA: All right. With the chaos in Iowa and the New Hampshire Democratic debate, there was no shortage of content for Saturday Night Live.
[20:55:09]
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
MIKEY DAY, ACTOR: Mayor Pete, you initially claimed victory in Iowa, and then Senator Sanders claimed victory a few days later, leading to some major infighting. Who do you think really won?
COLIN JOST, ACTOR: Donald Trump.
BOWEN YANG, ACTOR: Oh, the issue in Iowa was math? Oh, I wonder who they could have called to help them out with that. What? I meant because of my pin, racist.
LARRY DAVID, ACTOR: I can't believe all this mess happened in Iowa because of an app. Hey, I have an idea for an app, it's called no apps. No apps, no computers, no gadgets, no gizmos.
KATE MCKINNON, ACTRESS: No, no, no, you're not going to outpour me, all right? My campaign -- my campaign is broke as hell. My biggest contributions are the pennies from loafers and whatever the concerned moms of Bernie bros can afford.
JOST: Look, people, you know, say I'm not very popular among minorities. They have been referring to me as Mayo Pete. But I assure you, I'm not that spicy.
DAY: Let's hear your closing statements, Senator Klobuchar.
RACHEL DRATCH, ACTRESS: Why am I not doing better?
DAVID: I don't know how or why it happened, but I am king of an army of internet trolls called Bernie Bros. Could I stop them in their tracks? Of course. Should I? Yes. Will I?
DAY: Mr. Biden, you have 60 seconds.
JASON SUDEIKIS, ACTOR: What? The doctor said I had six to eight months.
DAY: No, I meant for your closing statements.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
CABRERA: I want to thank you so much for joining us tonight. I'm Ana Cabrera. And before we sign off, just a programming note for you. The CNN original series "RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE" returns next Sunday night at 9:00.
ANNOUNCER: So, you want to be the leader of the free world? Just how far will you go to get what you want?
BARACK OBAMA, THEN-PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: The hope of a skinny kid with a funny name who believed that America has a place for him, too.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: He just got to the Senate. The general feeling was that was pretty audacious.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: He said, I'm not getting in this to lose.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Lyndon Johnson, one of the most (INAUDIBLE) players in American politics, he basically would do anything to get where he's trying to go.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We figured out that we must be being bugged.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: He put a black book on my desk. I probably should have said, where did you get this, Bill?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Taft loved Theodore Roosevelt, loved him like family. And the thought that he was now having to have as his enemy, the person he most admired, was quite devastating to him.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Reagan is going to challenge Ford for the Republican nomination.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Are you going to win in New Hampshire?
REAGAN: I don't know. I'm going to try.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It's impossible to overestimate how furious Ford was. You do not challenge the president of the United States when he's an incumbent. You just don't do this.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I can't trust Obama.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: You don't have to correct your own people. As long as they vote for you, you're fine, unless you're John McCain.
JOHN MCCAIN, FORMER SENATOR OF ARIZONA: No ma'am. No, ma'am. He's a -- he's a -- he's a decent family man, citizen, that I just happen to have disagreements with.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: That was John McCain at his best. JIMMY CARTER, THEN-PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We face a grave situation in Iran.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We were begging Carter to really attack the Iranians. This could actually help you, you can turn a lemon into lemonade.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: And he says we don't play politics with this.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Get those hostages home. That was more important than winning and losing.
OBAMA: We will get there. I promise you, we as a people will get there.
WOODROW WILSON, THEN-PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I ask the American people for a mandate to begin.
THEODORE ROOSEVELT, THEN-PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We stand at Armageddon and we battle for the Lord.
GERALD FORD, THEN-PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I won't let you down. Thank you very much.
DWIGHT EISENHOWER, THEN-PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Who likes Ike?
CROWD: I like Ike!
REAGAN: We'll make America great again.
