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Belarus Opposition Leader Demands Recount as Protests Grow; Political Expert Weighs in on 2020 Election; Kodak Stock Dives after U.S. Government Loan Put on Hold; U.S. Health Secretary Meets with Taiwan Leaders; Man Helps Repatriate South Africans Stranded in China. Aired 12-1a ET
Aired August 11, 2020 - 00:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
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JOHN VAUSE, CNN ANCHOR (voice-over): Hello and welcome to our viewers in the United States and around the world. I'm John Vause.
Coming up on CNN NEWSROOM, 20 million people, the staggering number diagnosed around the world with the coronavirus and yet the advice to slow the spread remains the same.
Lebanon's government gives in to days of violent protests and resigns en masse over last week's catastrophic explosion in Beirut.
And a chilling attack on press freedom in Hong Kong, police arresting a pro democracy media mogul as supporters rush to buy his "Apple Daily" publication in defiance.
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VAUSE: Against a backdrop on global bickering over where it all started, some world leaders continue to insist the outbreak was so no worse than the seasonal flu and many refuse to wear a mask.
The coronavirus has been unrelenting. The number of known cases worldwide has now surpassed 20 million. The WHO says it is not an easy virus to detect or beat but insists countries must do better and react more quickly to inevitable flare-ups.
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DR. MICHAEL RYAN, WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION: This virus is proving exceptionally difficult to stop.
This virus has demonstrated no seasonal pattern as such so far. But it has clearly demonstrated that, you take the pressure off the virus, the virus bounces back. That is the reality, that is the fact.
It's brutal in its simplicity. It is brutal in its cruelty. But it does not have a brain. We have the brains and I think we may outline how we can outsmart something that doesn't have a brain but we are not doing such a great job right now.
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VAUSE: According to the World Health Organization, outsmarting means breaking the chain of transmission by doing everything we have already been told to do, physical distancing, contact tracing, handwashing, wearing masks.
Meanwhile, disease experts in Europe say there is a true resurgence in a number of countries because social distancing has been relaxed. CNN's Scott McLean shows us where the virus is under control and where it is not.
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SCOTT MCLEAN, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: For months, scenes like this have been playing on a loop especially in Brazil where the coronavirus is spreading like wildfire, foreshadowed by scenes like this one last week in Rio de Janeiro, packed bars and few masks.
Now the world has hit a sad milestone, 20 million confirmed coronavirus cases. More than half of those come from just three countries, Brazil, United States and India. While Countries like Russia, South Africa, Columbia and Mexico are hot on their heels.
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TEDROS ADHANOM GHEBREYESUS, DIRECTOR-GENERAL, WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION: I know many of you are grieving. And that this is a difficult moment for the world.
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MCLEAN: But amidst the mammoth failures to contain the pandemic, there have been successes too. None greater than in New Zealand which says it just marked 100 days since the last locally transmitted case of the virus. The prime minister is now staking her reelection bid on her decision to close the borders and lockdown the country early on.
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JACINDA ARDERN, PRIME MINISTER OF NEW ZEALAND: When people ask is this a COVID election? My answer is yes, it is.
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MCLEAN: There are also encouraging signs in Germany where masks are mandatory in newly reopen schools in some states.
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DOMENICA ACRI, DIRECTOR, CARL-ORFF-GRUNDSCHULE (through translator): Today, not a single child has forgotten his or her mask. All of which seems to show that the situation is returning to normal.
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MCLEAN: Masks are also now required for a stroll down the Seine in Paris. But in Sweden, face coverings are few and far between. Despite World Health Organization guidance to wear them, Sweden's government has no national mandate to wear them anywhere.
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MARTEN SPORRONG, SWEDISH BUSINESSMAN: I think that the Swedish people are taking the responsibility. So if you're sick, we stay at home. And if we're not, we can be outside.
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MCLEAN: And there is more cause for concern across Africa, where experts fear the low testing rates may be masking the true scale of the outbreak. In Britain, beaches have been packed, cases are on the rise and the prime minister is pledging to reopen schools next month.
Vietnam had no locally transmitted cases between late April and late July. But officials there are now trying to tamp down an outbreak in a popular tourist town. And in Australia where new daily cases have gotten down to single digits, there is now a second spike even bigger than the first.
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GHEBREYESUS: There are green shoots of hope and no matter where a country, a region, a city, or a town is, it's never too late to turn the outbreak around.
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MCLEAN: The world can only hope that's true -- Scott McLean, CNN, London.
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VAUSE: The past few weeks have seen a decline in the number of new cases but the reality is more than 50,000 people are being diagnosed every day with COVID-19 in the U.S.. To put it another way, this current rate of spread, the U.S. is confirming more cases in one week then the U.K.'s overall total since the pandemic began.
While the coronavirus rages across rural and urban America alike, so, too, is the debate about the safety of reopening schools. As Kyung Lah reports, that debate is over before it even begins.
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KYUNG LAH, CNN SENIOR U.S. CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): As Florida teachers protest back-to-school in person, at least 12 counties in the Sunshine State returned to the classroom this week, nine of them with positivity rates higher than the CDC's recommended mark for reopening.
Next door, in Georgia, the governor today applauded its first week back to school in many counties.
GOV. BRIAN KEMP (R-GA): This week went real well, other than a couple virtual photos.
LAH: That's despite hundreds of public-school students and faculty quarantined, testing positive after returning for in-person classes. That includes this high school northwest of Atlanta in this viral image, now temporarily moved to online learning after nine reported cases.
MICHELLE SALAS, PARENT, NORTH PAULDING HIGH SCHOOL: It's like a really bad experiment, you know. We're trying to find some kind of fluency. But they're using my kids and the kids that my kids grew up with as bate.
LAH: The number paint a stark picture for the back to school season. The American Academy of Pediatric says nearly 100,000 children tested positive for COVID in the last two weeks of July. A 40 percent increase in child cases. COVID continues to rise in these eight states in red. The death toll flat.
The U.S. averaging 1,000 dying every day. In Illinois cases are up sharply. Chicago's mayor closed a lakefront beach after seeing this packed area.
In Texas, where the state's positivity rate remains above 20 percent, some churches are now worshipping outdoors. And then there was the Sturgis, South Dakota, motorcycle rally, which brought about 250,000 people to this small town. On fears of contracting COVID and taking it home?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Hell, no, we're going to get it sooner or later. (BLEEP) the mask.
LAH: The reality of the virus is sinking into college football. The first major conference postponed its season, the Mid-American.
JON STEINBRECHER, COMMISSIONER, MID-AMERICAN CONFERENCE: It was not a
decision that was made lightly. It was not a decision that was made quickly and it was a decision that was made based on the advice of our medical experts.
LAH: As the top leagues meet over the future of the fall season, the President urged college football resume.
KAYLEIGH MCENANY, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: He is very much would like to see college football safely resume their sport.
LAH (on camera): This push by the President to get football started in the fall is part of the administration's overall effort to get students back in the classroom. Primary, secondary and even college age. Students back into the physical classroom despite all the questions about the safety of those decisions -- Kyung Lah, CNN, Los Angeles.
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VAUSE: The man who more Americans trust about how to deal with the pandemic says the sight of students crowded into hallways without face masks is disturbing. In an interview with ABC News, Dr. Anthony Fauci says wearing face masks is a crucial part of the strategy to open schools safely.
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DR. ANTHONY FAUCI, NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ALLERGY AND INFECTIOUS DISEASES: Universal wearing of masks is one of five or six things that are very important in preventing the upsurge of infections and in turning around the infections that we are seeing surging.
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VAUSE: For more, Dr. Anne Rimoin is an epidemic professor at the University of California in Los Angeles, also the director of the UCLA Center for Global and Immigrant Health.
We're pleased to have you again.
ANNE RIMOIN, EPIDEMIOLOGY PROFESSOR, UCLA FIELDING SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH: Nice to be here.
VAUSE: Is this just about wearing face masks at school?
Is it possible the type of response to the pandemic comes back to the bigger issue of preventing community transmission, bringing that under control and wearing face masks in public is a big part of that?
RIMOIN: Well, absolutely. The bottom line here is that nothing is happening in a vacuum. Everything is happening all at the same time.
So here's the deal. What do we need to do to be able to reopen schools safely and not run into this problem of immediately having cases, having to quarantine, all of these issues happening, is that we have to drive down community transmission to a very low point and then open up slowly.
Everyone wear masks, everyone socially distance, do hand hygiene, everyone do the things that we are supposed to do and then we will be able to reopen schools safely. Until we have community transmission under control, these situations are not surprising at all.
VAUSE: There's a lot of uncertainty about the quality and effectiveness of different kinds of face coverings. Duke University came up with a simple test, using laser lights to show how different materials can actually prevent the spread of droplets.
What you're going to hear is what they found. They start with no mask at all; that's in the upper right corner of the screen. They move clockwise with a different type of material. Listen to this.
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UNIDENTIFIED MALE: This is the no mask case. This was the cotton, this is a surgical mask. So you can see it does very well. This one here is fleece, next (INAUDIBLE). And what's noticeable here is that the number of particles is actually bigger than the no mask case.
We attribute this to the fleece, the textile breaking up those big particles in to many little particles.
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VAUSE: Given that one type of mask or material can do more harm than good, what's the best advice?
RIMOIN: The best advice is to wear a mask, to wear a mask that is a surgical mask or a cloth mask that is three-ply and to make sure that you pay attention to the kind of materials that you are using.
What they're talking about is a fleece, you know a gaiter or something you pull over your face. That's really not a mask. A mask is something that's going to be fitting snugly on your face, going to have ear loops or fit over the back of your head, not one of these neck gaiters.
I think it's very important that everybody remembers that everything is not equal here, follow the science, look for the guidelines, the CDC and WHO guidelines, which are pretty clear about what kind of face covering you should be wearing.
VAUSE: Not all masks are created equal. I want you to listen to President Trump at the White House briefing and his forecast for the coming months.
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TRUMP: I do want to say that I think, at the end of a fairly short period of time, you're going to be in very good shape all over our country.
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VAUSE: On the other hand, here's part of a report from the medical new website Stat.
"Unless Americans use the dwindling weeks between now and the onset of indoor weather to tamp down transmission in the country, this winter could be Dickensianly bleak, public health experts are warning."
It's quite an extreme forecast, which is more likely in your opinion?
RIMOIN: The fact is that when people start to go inside, you see disease spread more quickly. That's what we see with the colds. And talking about winter is coming is true.
And I think that we all need to be thinking about what we can do to push down transmission rates as far as we can so that we have less virus circulating in the population when people come indoors.
VAUSE: At the same, briefing President Trump called for an into politicizing the pandemic. He went on to politicize the timing of the vaccine. Here he is.
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TRUMP: My administration is pursuing a science based approach, that focuses on the delivery and development of treatment and ultimately the vaccine.
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TRUMP: I feel strongly that we will have a vaccine by the end of the year and it will be put in service maybe even as we get it because we are all set militarily. We're using our military to distribute the vaccine.
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VAUSE: Again following the science, when will that vaccine be ready, likely?
RIMOIN: Nobody knows. And I am not aware of the data that would suggest that a vaccine would be ready that soon.
I think if there is data available, it should be made available and as many scientists have recently said, in a letter that 400 scientists just signed, requesting that all data be ready and available so all of us who are scientists can read it and explain it and communicate the validity of the science that is ongoing.
But here's the thing, the bottom line is that science should be driving what we do. And if science is driving what we're going to be doing, that is terrific as far as I'm concerned. You know, there is science that should be leading the way. We know the right thing to be able to do to reduce the spread of transmission of the virus.
And if there is a vaccine that becomes available sooner than later, that's great. But every single day, everybody could be doing their part to doing their best to reduce disease, by wearing a mask, social distancing, to reduce spread of this virus right now, because even if there is a vaccine available in a few months from now, the bottom line is there is a lot of deaths until that time.
We have no idea right now of a realistic timeline for a vaccine. And we will see it when we see it. It's not just going to be readily available to everybody. It's going to be, probably, delivered in stages; there will be certain groups that will get it before others, people who are vulnerable, first responders.
So before a vaccine is widely available to everybody, my guess is it probably will be sometime next year, if everything goes the way that it should be. And I have no knowledge of what is actually happening.
But the bottom line is everybody can do something right now to save lives and prevent more deaths, more disability, get our economy back going and get our kids in school. Wear a mask, social distancing and hygiene.
VAUSE: We can hope for the best and we can do what we can do right now and at that point, thank you. Good to see you again, Dr. Rimoin.
RIMOIN: It's my pleasure.
VAUSE: Well, days of angry and violent protests in Beirut have triggered the collapse of Lebanon's government less than a week after a large explosion left more than 160 people dead. In his resignation address the prime minister acknowledged the government's role in what he called a disaster beyond measure.
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MICHEL AOUN, LEBANESE PRESIDENT (through translator): This devastating catastrophe that hit Lebanese in the heart, which was the result of chronic corruption in the country and the regime, previously I said the corrupt establishment hit all parts of the country.
However, I discovered that the corruption organization is bigger than the state and the state is controlled by this and cannot face it or get rid of it.
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VAUSE: CNN's Sam Kiley, live in Beirut.
And Sam you know many wanted this government to go but it's not like they're trying to clean house at this point, is it?
SAM KILEY, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: No, the government has gone but it remains as a caretaking government and I'm outside just a few hundred meters from the epicenter of the blast in the Beirut port, a blast that could've been a lot worse if that silo complex had not been there, protecting much of Beirut.
But in the future, the dispensation here is not really going to change the opponents of the system until the constitution is reformed. And we've been talking to young protesters, activists and some members of the old guard. And this is what they say.
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KILEY (voice-over): If you're in the Lebanese opposition, this is democracy in action.
(on camera): Thirty or 40 years down the street, it's barricaded there is now supported for the Lebanese parliament. The demonstrators are absolutely dead set, they've told me, on getting into more and more government buildings to try and demonstrate that the government itself is really a chimera, it is hopeless. It is a sort of joke.
(voice-over): As the cleanup continues after thousands of tons of fertilizer is believed to have blown up and destroyed parts of Beirut, activists are adamant that Lebanon's sectarian system, its dynastic politics, corruption and negligence led to the blast.
SAMIRA EL AZAR, PROTESTER: We will go to the parliament, we will go to their houses and we will go to each place to get them down. They will go to a place where they will not be able to go back to this place ever.
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EL AZAR: They killed people. Is a big thing to us.
KILEY: Lebanon's parliament, which are 128 seats are shared among Christians, Sunnis, Druzes and Shia under electoral law following the Civil War 30 years ago, was dissolve Monday ahead of new elections. But Walid Jumblatt, the Druze leader who inherited his role from his father and has arguably benefited from the existing system, is pessimistic that even early elections would bring change.
WALID JUMBLATT, LEBANESE DRUZE LEADER: When I see the protesters, the revolutionary, when I saw them and I see them yesterday and they want to change Lebanon. They want a new Lebanon, but the obstacle for change in Lebanon is, in this specific point, alliance of minorities and the electoral law. Because you cannot change Lebanon through, let's say, a military coup d'etat. It's impossible.
KILEY: Close to the epicenter of Tuesday's blast, the Kataeb Party's headquarters is in ruins. It's a largely Cristian Maronite Party. Its secretary general was killed in the explosion. His bloody handprint is still visible. The grandson of the party's founder and son of the former president, nephew of another president who was murdered, Samy Gemayel supports the street protests.
SAMY GEMAYEL, LEBANESE MP: We are all from families that were part of the old Lebanon. This is how the new -- the new generation didn't come from nowhere. And it's our duty to do our revolution, our own revolution, each one in his society and the place where he is.
KILEY: But in Martyrs' Square protesters now include former Lebanese commando leader, Colonel Georges Nader. He wants to see the old guard swept away entirely.
GEORGES NADER, FORMER LEBANESE COMMANDO LEADER (through translator): Change is coming. And I recommend they leave peacefully or we will go to their homes and do it by force.
KILEY: That night, it was the protests who were eventually swept away but not for long. They have plans to harness public anger over the Beirut blast to a more powerful revolutionary rage.
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KILEY: Later on, there are plans to have mass protests, to mark the one-week anniversary of that devastating blast. The government has dissolved itself but actually backtracked on its offer of new elections, which means that they will go behind closed doors, to knit together a new Lebanese government, that in all probability will look like the previous Lebanese governments and will likely take every several months before it comes into being.
VAUSE: Sam, thank you, Sam Kiley there in Beirut, appreciate that.
Still to come, protests turned violent in Belarus as election results show Europe's last dictator with a huge win in Sunday's vote.
And also the growing international outrage, after Hong Kong police detained a pro democracy media mogul.
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VAUSE: The U.S. and the U.K. have joined the outcry, over the arrest of the owner of the pro-democracy newspaper in Hong Kong. Jimmy Lai was detained under Beijing's new controversial national security law.
Lai's newspaper, printed thousands of additional copies of its latest issue. CNN's Will Ripley live now in Hong Kong.
Around the world, the arrest is being seen as a blatant attack on press freedom of not just Hong Kong but also Beijing.
Is that as clear cut for the people of Hong Kong?
WILL RIPLEY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, from the Beijing perspective, it's not, because they don't understand why the foreign correspondents club and others are condemning the arrest of billionaire mogul Jimmy Lai and 9 others, because they haven't seen the evidence yet. They don't know what proof China claims there is that crimes have been committed.
But from a lot of people they see as a cut and dry issue. Jimmy Lai was a fierce critic for decades of Beijing. In his newspaper, "Apple Daily," it was one of the most aggressive publications here in Hong Kong.
In red here it says, "'Apple Daily' must continue, must continue its operations."
It's selling a lot of copies today, more than half a million printed, normally their circulation is 70,000. But it seems these days in Hong Kong the act of buying a newspaper in an act of defiance.
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RIPLEY (voice-over): The latest setback for Hong Kong's pro-democracy movement. Police search the newsroom of "Apple Daily," a paper known for fierce support of last year's protest and fierce criticism of Hong Kong's pro-Beijing government.
Police arrested the newspapers owner, Hong Kong media mogul Jimmy Lai, hauling him in handcuffs back to the "Apple Daily" newsroom.
Lai is one of a group of people arrested on charges including colluding with foreign countries, a violation of Hong Kong's national security law.
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JIMMY LAI, FOUNDER, "APPLE DAILY": With a dictatorship, freedom is not free and this is a price we have to be ready for.
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RIPLEY: That price could be steep even for a billionaire like Lai. Up to life in prison, the possibility of a mainland trial hidden from public view. Lai holds a British passport but told CNN earlier this year, he decided to stay in Hong Kong.
The new law came into effect less than two months ago, already leading to drastic changes and freedom of the press and politics. A dozen pro- democracy lawmakers disqualified from legislative council elections postponed to next year. The government says because of COVID-19.
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TIFFANY YUEN, PRO-DEMOCRACY DISTRICT COUNCILOR: I think that disqualified is ridiculously unfair to us. Many people in Hong Kong are very disappointed because what we only want to do is to protect our hometown and protect our homeland.
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RIPLEY: But activities like lobbying foreign governments and voicing objections to the national security law make them unfit to run, the city says. Other arrests include a 15-year-old girl waving a pro- independence flag. And students for social media posts.
Pro-Beijing lawmakers hope the security law will allow Hong Kong to calm down after last year's protest.
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PRISCILLA LEUNG, PRO-BEIJING LAWMAKER: I think the whole development already prove that. The way they use violence to fight for what they want is a failure.
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RIPLEY: More arrests are possible, police says. They are also seeking six activists who fled Hong Kong including Nathan Law, a former lawmaker now in London.
The head of the Hong Kong Journalist Associations calls Monday's newsroom raid shocking and scary, the kind of thing normally seen in developing countries but never Hong Kong. A city quickly realizing life, at least for some, will never be the same.
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RIPLEY: I want to show you some brand-new pictures that just came in moments ago, this is Jimmy Lai, still in police custody at this hour, he is being escorted to the yacht club where he owns, where they conducted a search.
They searched his homes, the newsroom that he owns and now they are searching his yacht club as well for evidence that can be used against him. We believe that all of the suspects, according to police sources, remain in custody and it is unlikely that they will see a judge or be granted bail, at least today.
You know that Jimmy Lai could've left Hong Kong. He has a U.K. passport. He is a billionaire and he chose to stay here. If you listen to interviews with him, it is almost like he has resigned himself to the fact that this was inevitably going to happen.
And despite all his resources he has chosen to stay here, to allow himself to be arrested and to try to fight this to the very end. We'll see how it turns out.
VAUSE: Absolutely, Will, thank you we appreciate the live report. Will Ripley live in Hong Kong.
Who's up and down in the U.S. polls?
Will it be a Democrat tsunami or a Trump upset?
When we come back, historian and commentator who's correctly called every U.S. presidential election for almost 40 years.
Plus, the multi-million-dollar government loan, meant to transform Kodak from photo developer to drug maker. But now the Trump administration has pulled it. Why?
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VAUSE: The opposition leader in Belarus is demanding a recount in the presidential election, but the man known as Europe's last dictator is claiming a huge victory, and at the same time cracking down on protesters.
Here's CNN's Fred Pleitgen with details.
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FREDERIK PLEITGEN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice- over): Tear gas and stun grenades right in the center of Minsk. It was shortly after the first exit polls were announced that peaceful protesters assembled and security forces began cracking down on then. The scenes bloody and violent after President Alexander Lukashenko vowed a hard line.
ALEXANDER LUKASHENKO, BELARUSIAN PRESIDENT (through translator): If you provoke, especially on the Internet, then you get the same thing in response. What's wrong, what's not to your liking? Do you want to try to overthrow the rule, break something, offend like you did at the beginning, and you now expect I will kneel and kiss the sand you walked on? This is not happening.
PLEITGEN: In total, Belarusian authorities say they detained about 3,000 people around the entire country for participating in unauthorized mass events. The interior ministry also says 39 officers and 50 civilians were injured.
After the country's election commission announced that Lukashenko allegedly gained more than 80 percent of the vote, while his rival, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, got less than 10 percent. The opposition says the vote was rigged and refuses to recognize the result, Tikhanovskaya vowing to battle on.
SVETLANA TIKHANOVSKAYA, OPPOSITION LEADER (through translator): I think we've already run, because we overcame our fear. We overcame our indifference to politics. We overcame our apathy and indifference. Such victories are more important than all the other victories. These are very important victories in the life of every person.
PLEITGEN: Alexander Lukashenko is often called Europe's last dictator. He's had a firm grip on power in Belarus for 26 years.
But calls for change have grown here, and Svetlana took the reins of the opposition movement after her own husband, Sergei, was arrested, managed to draw huge crowds in the run-up to the election, despite detentions and arrests by security forces.
TIKHANOVSKAYA (through translator(: People are tired. People want change. How long can you rule the people against their will? Our president is in power, as I said on the TV, not because the people want it, but because he doesn't want to step down.
PLEITGEN: And Alexander Lukashenko has made clear he doesn't intend leave power any time soon, as European political leaders are calling for his security forces not to use violence and allow peaceful protests.
But the opposition, too, remains galvanized. Svetlana Tikhanovskaya insisting she will not flee Belarus, and the demonstrations will continue.
Fred Pleitgen, CNN, Berlin.
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VAUSE: European governments have been swift to condemn the election results and the crackdown on protesters. Germany called the vote undemocratic. The U.K. says it was seriously flawed. France is calling for maximum restraint and an end to the violence, while the U.S. secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, issued a statement saying, "Severe restrictions on ballot access for candidates, prohibition of local independent observers at polling stations, intimidation tactics employed against opposition candidates, and the detentions of peaceful protestors and journalists marred the protests" [SIC]. Well, the process, rather. Now, 84 days until the presidential election in the U.S., it seems to race could be Joe Biden's to lose. The presumptive Democratic nominee has been leading the polls for doing not much at all, while President Trump has been unable to land a blow on Biden and failing badly in dealing with the coronavirus.
But polling can be erratic. Here's a snapshot of recent headlines. From "Newsweek," Trump is closing in on the approval rating gap, but meantime, over at CBS, Biden leads in swing states Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. While the conservative Newsmax reports Trump has a huge lead in Georgia, but over at CBS, it's still tight over there in Georgia, at least.
So when it comes to predicting a winner, perhaps best go to those who have a track record.
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VAUSE: Allan Lichtman is a distinguished professor of history at American university. He's batting 100 when it comes to calling the winner of every presidential election for almost 40 years. He's calling 2020 for Joe Biden, and he joins us now.
Allan, good to see you.
ALLAN LICHTMAN, HISTORY PROFESSOR, AMERICAN UNIVERSITY: Thank you.
VAUSE: OK. In the lead-up to the 2016 election, you were really a minority, predicting Donald Trump would be Hillary Clinton. You also predicted he would be impeached, but that's another story.
Now you have these 13 keys model which we'll get to in a moment, the specifics, but all indicate, you know, that Trump will lose come November. He'll join the one-termers club, if you like. But somehow, this time around, that just doesn't seem like a stretch.
LICHTMAN: No, it doesn't seem like a stretch. And look, let me tell you this. The hardest thing about being a forecaster is not knowing history, although you've got to know history; it's not knowing politics, though you've got to know politics; it's not knowing math, though you've got to know math. It's putting aside your personal political preferences.
And my calls have nothing to do with politics, nothing to do with the polls, nothing to do with the pundits. They are purely objective based upon my model. And in nine calls up to this point, I have called four Republicans and five Democrats. That is as impartial as you can get.
VAUSE: Well, since 1984, you've been using, what, these 13 true or false statements to determine the outcome.
They cover everything from health of the economy to income growth; foreign policy failures and successes; scandals like impeachment; as well as charisma, or lack thereof of both the incumbent and the challenger. And if the majority is true to the -- to those statements, you know, the incumbent will hold office. If it's false, then he's out. I went through the formula, and it went for Biden by a point. What do you read into that?
LICHTMAN: That's really close. Here's what happened.
In late 2019, Trump looked like he was cruising to victory. He had four negative keys. It takes six negative keys to predict the incumbent is going to lose the election.
But then we had this unprecedented balance (ph) of the pandemic, and the cries of social unrest (ph). And Trump made a fatal mistake. He didn't understand the keys, although he wrote me a note after I predicted the win, saying, "Congrats, Professor, good call."
Instead of dealing substantively with the challenge, he thought he could talk his way out of it. But they keys say when you're the incumbent, you're judged by his record. And his failure to deal with the challenges led to three more negative keys: the short-term economy, because we're in a recession; the long-term economy, because the negative growth has pulled down the record of the Trump years so far down; and the social unrest key, because of the widespread social unrest raging across the country.
VAUSE: I was going to say --
LICHTMAN: So Trump went from four keys down to seven, a sure win to a sure loss.
VAUSE: I was going to say, it doesn't take a stable genius to understand how this works, but maybe I'm wrong. But is there a flaw in your model, because it doesn't include foreign interference?
LICHTMAN: It doesn't include what?
VAUSE: Foreign interference. A China or Russia interfering in the election.
LICHTMAN: Absolutely right. There's not a flaw in my model. That's a flaw in any model. That's outside the realm of the model.
And there are two things that are outside the realm of the model that, you know, no model can control. One, you're absolutely right. Unprecedented Russian interference.
They're back. They learned a lot in four years. They may even start to get into our registration rolls this time. And, as in 2016, Trump will welcome and exploit their interference.
The other thing outside the model is voter suppression. The Republicans rely on old white guys like me. Well, you can't manufacture more old white guys, but you can try to suppress the vote of the rising Democratic base: the minorities, the young people. And that's exactly what Trump and his enablers are doing by denigrating voting by mail and even interfering with the post office.
[00:40:09]
VAUSE: You know, we've spoken a few times over the years. Back in December 2016, after Trump won, you had a warning about his fascist tendencies. It was, you know, the constant lying, the attacks on the free press, attacks on other civil liberties. Here's part of what you told me back then.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
LICHTMAN: I'm not calling him a fascist or a Nazi, I'm just pointing to dangerous tendencies. And I think all of these tendencies go far beyond anything that we saw in Ronald Reagan, George W. Bush or any modern American president. Some of those presidents may have had one or two of these many tendencies. Only Donald Trump has embodied all of these characteristics, which are warning signs of an incipient fascism.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
VAUSE: OK. So in many ways, very prescient. So with that in mind, with your prediction that Trump will lose come November, will he go quietly, or will this country be facing another crisis?
LICHTMAN: He won't go quietly. He will claim the election was rigged, that he really won, just like he claimed he really won the popular vote in 2016, because 3 to 5 million illegal voters miraculously came out of thin air on election day, all voted for Hillary Clinton, and miraculously disappeared.
But will he barricade himself in the White House and call on the Boogaloo Boys and other right-wing extremists, armed with semiautomatic weapons, to keep him in office? I don't think he will go that far, because he knows that won't work, and that will incredibly tarnish his reputation. He'll just leave the White House with the claim that, I really won and I was cheated out of my victory.
VAUSE: Allen, you've been right so far, so we'll see what happens. Good to see you.
LICHTMAN: Same here, John.
VAUSE: Thank you.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
VAUSE: After the Eastman Kodak Company was founded in 1888, it grew to become an iconic brand. A Kodak moment documenting history. But in the digital age, the company has struggled, and to survive, tried to move into pharmaceuticals. Received almost a billion-dollar loan from the U.S. government to make that transition, but now the Trump administration has put a hold on the funds.
Kodak's stock plunged on the news, ending the day down almost 30 percent. Shares had fallen as much as 43 percent earlier in trade. Regulators are reportedly investigating allegations of insider trading. Kodak's stock shot up almost 2,700 percent after the loan announcement came late last month. That's a huge spike.
CNN's Eleni Giokos is live this hour for us in Johannesburg. What is going on?
ELENI GIOKOS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes. I mean, look, it's a story of a comeback kid, isn't it? I mean, we all know callback, it's a legacy company, as you say, in cameras and film, and of course, failed to innovate through the years.
It got a shot in the arm through that $765 million loan from the Trump administration, and it was all about increasing pharmaceutical capacity, bringing that back to the United States and minimizing reliance on imports from the likes of China, as well as India.
But importantly, when that announcement was made at the end of July, questions then came up. You know, why Kodak? How did the deal come to the fore? And do they have the expertise to really pull this off and pull it into a vastly distant sector?
For the Trump administration, it was really interesting, because it was a really big feat, bringing jobs into the United States.
But these allegations of potential insider trading are taken very seriously. They're calling back on the loan until an investigation is concluded. And it really portends to a series of events leading up to the official announcement, where we saw the stock actually spiking at one point around 3,000 percent higher than what it was.
I want you to take a look at this graph. And it really tells an interesting story. Since the beginning of the year, you have stock that's sitting at around $3 a share and then spiking during the announcement.
But what happened before the announcement is important. We had executives and the CEO receiving stock options a day before. The question of when the announcement was made, who had access to this information.
And remember, if the Securities and Exchange Commission is going to be investigating this, they're going to look at the timing of all these elements: who had access to information that could have been market- moving before the official announcement was made, or even heard Peter Navarro, the trade advisor, saying he's very disappointed. And this, of course, tarnishes the -- the overall deal.
The question is, can Kodak survive this down the line? And of course, the investigation is going to be really telling. We saw the stock dropping dramatically in yesterday's session, as well. Trading volume also tells a very important story. A week before the actual announcement, the average volume was around 80,000 a day, and then it spiked to 1.6 million the day before. So someone had access, and of course, an investigation is going to be important here, John.
VAUSE: Eleni, thank you for the update. We appreciate it. That's something to keep an eye on, huh? Thank you.
GIOKOS: Yes.
VAUSE: Well, America's health secretary is on the third day of his historic day, yes, to Taiwan. That has angered mainland China a lot. Ahead, he speaks exclusively with CNN.
[00:45:09]
Also, disaster in paradise. A wrecked cargo ship has been leaking oil off the coast of Mauritius and is in danger of breaking apart. The very latest when we come back.
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VAUSE: Alex Azar is the most senior U.S. official to visit Taiwan in decades, and much to the annoyance of mainland China, he has met with the territory's foreign minister.
Earlier, the U.S. health secretary praised Taiwan for how it's responded to the coronavirus pandemic and says Taiwan has been unfairly excluded from the global conversation, mostly because of Beijing.
Azar talked about that in an exclusive interview with CNN's Paula Hancocks.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
ALEX AZAR, U.S. HEATH AND HUMAN SERVICES SECRETARY: It is a call to action that Taiwan needs to be appropriately represented in international fora so that its expertise, its data, its evidence can be fully integrated by the international public health community, something that has been denied to it by the Communist Party of China, especially working through the World Health Organization and the World Health Assembly.
The way Taiwan has been treated and the undue influence of Beijing at the World Health Organization, are exactly part of the reason why President Trump has determined that the United States needs to leave the World Health Organization.
PAULA HANCOCKS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Just before you went to meet President Tsai Ing-wen this morning, Chinese fighter jets did cross the median line in the Taiwan Strait, the water between China and Taiwan, which Taiwan sees as harassment. But of course, China sees Taiwan as part of its territory, so they're making a point.
What's your response to that? I mean, obviously, they know that you are here. They are unhappy that this visit is taking place.
AZAR: It seems to be a continued politicization by Beijing of public health relationships. This should be about sharing information; recognizing the need for transparent, open communication; about an unprecedented public health crisis; and instead, they seem to want to play political games, as they have done at the World Health Organization.
When this disease had its outbreak in China, because China did not reveal the rapid human-to-human spread of the disease, did not reveal what they were learning about asymptomatic transmission, did not share the initial first generation of viral isolates with other countries, shut down travel within China out of Wuhan and Hubei province, even as they allowed Chinese to travel throughout the world, they seeded Europe. And what spread to the United States was actually the disease burden that China had allowed to seed into Europe, which then spread into many different parts of the United States.
HANCOCKS: So what would you say to critics of the Trump administration who say your visit here three months before an election is political?
[00:50:05]
AZAR: My visit here is about supporting Taiwan and supporting Taiwan in the international public health community. My visit is about health. It's about the health of the people of Taiwan. It's about the health of the -- of the American people. It's about the health of the people of the world.
And the way we protect that is by entities around the world being transparent, cooperative, collaborative, compliant with the international health regulations; and Taiwan has been a model of that.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
VAUSE: Mauritius is calling for international help to contain an environmental disaster. A Japanese tanker ran aground southeast of the island more than three weeks ago, and now it's breaking apart.
Thousands of tons of fuel is leaking into the Indian Ocean. Satellite images show the slick is already more than a kilometer long. In the meantime, volunteers have been trying to collect the oil with buckets. A tour operator says the spill will be devastating for the local economy.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
REUBEN PILLAY, VIRTUAL TOUR OPERATOR: For the local people, it's been terrible.
These people, they are fishermen. They are boat operators. They are divers. They live from the sea, and they eat from the sea. So tourism will be effected for -- for a long period of time, and they won't be able to do any of that.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
VAUSE: France has pledged its support to help clean up the spill.
Now, investigators are looking for a cause of a home explosion in Baltimore in the U.S. which killed a woman and badly injured seven others. Three homes were reduced to rubble.
The utility company says there was no gas leaks in the area at the time. Crews have also been looking for anyone who may be trapped within the debris.
Still to come here, they were stranded in China for six months, but now they're home, thanks to an unlikely hero. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CARMEN JOHANNIE, STRANDED SOUTH AFRICAN: I called him my guardian angel from day one, because that's literally what he was. Literally, the only man that could help us. So, yes. Sorry.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
VAUSE: When we come back, the man who pulled off what the South African government could not.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
VAUSE: With a phone, a laptop, some ingenuity and a dogged determination, a man in Canada managed to do what the South African government could not. He managed to get dozens of South Africans on a flight home from China, where they've been stranded for months because of the coronavirus pandemic.
Here's CNN's David McKenzie to explain how he pulled it off.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
DAVID MCKENZIE, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Two South Africans abroad, once stranded in China because of a COVID-19 travel ban, the other starting a new life in Canada.
JOHANNIE: When he sent out a message, he said that anybody stuck in China, anybody stuck in China needs to contact him. So I sent him an email.
MCKENZIE: Brought together by that first message and Carmen Johannie's unshakable determination to get home.
JOHANNIE: All we had to hear for five months was be patient, be patient, a free patient, and that's the hardest thing you can say to someone.
TERTIUS MYBURGH, RESCUED STRANDED SOUTH AFRICANS: It's me, me alone. My phone.
MCKENZIE: Tertius Myburgh seemed an unlikely savior, sitting at his dining room table in Canada with barely enough credit on his phone, pulling off a rescue mission that South Africa's national carrier said it was impossible.
MYBURGH: I got bombarded with phone calls and emails and everything from people itself that are stuck, and people are running out of money. People are saying the world becomes very small. It honestly felt as if they were forgotten.
JOHANNIE: It was a team, everything that we did, and then I just realized, like, how many people actually are relying on us. The pressure was hectic.
MCKENZIE: Johannie quickly became aviation veteran Myburgh's vital link to more than 100 South Africans stranded for months in China and their anxious families back home.
His plan? Lease Air Zimbabwe's only functioning airplane and crew, and rely on Zimbabwean diplomats to get enormously complex COVID-19 clearances.
JOHANNIE: I called him my guardian angel from day one, because that's literally what he was. Literally the only man that could help us. So yes. Sorry.
MCKENZIE (on camera): It's a very emotional journey you've been on.
JOHANNIE: This was very hard. It was extremely hard. It was something I'd never wish on anybody.
MCKENZIE (voice-over): The 30-year-old 767 that once carried Robert Mugabe routing from Harare to Johannesburg to Bangkok to change a faulty engine, than to Kuala Lumpur to pick up stranded Chinese seafarers, to help offset the cost. Then on to Guangzhou, back to Kaol (ph), to Wuhan, then to Johannesburg.
(on camera): And it seems that things could go wrong, did go wrong.
JOHANNIE: A hundred percent. Hundred percent. So yes, it's a matter that you look back and you laugh, and you say you actually -- you can't believe it. But it was real.
MYBURGH: To find space for this engine and to get it to route all the way out of Harare, and eventually get into Bangkok, that was a mission on its own. Or how can I say to them, it's becoming too difficult? How can I go and sit down in the garden and have a -- have a whiskey and a barbecue because I made it easy for myself, but all these people are stuck there?
MCKENZIE (voice-over): The South African government told us they are legally obliged to assist all citizens who are distressed abroad. It did eventually help with passenger permissions for arrival in South Africa, and the group's quarantine at this hotel.
JOHANNIE: The TV room, and then we've got a beautiful kitchenette.
There has been times where, like, reality has hit, and then there's other times where it just feels like it's not real.
MCKENZIE: But Johannie knows her five-month ordeal is finally over, thanks to one man.
David McKenzie, CNN, Johannesburg.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
VAUSE: Thank you for watching CNN NEWSROOM. I'm John Vause. Please stay with us. I'll be back with a lot more news after a short break.
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