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How Pandemic and Protests Could Impact Voter Turnout; FBI Warns of Foreign Disinformation on Election Results; Duke and Duchess of Sussex Stress Importance of U.S. Vote; U.S. Intel Warnings About Russian Election Interference; Trump Says U.N. Should Hold China Accountable for COVID-19; U.S. Campaigning for More Sanctions on Iran; Race to Save Hundreds of Beached Whales in Australia; Trump Says 2021 Will Be Best Year Economically. Aired 4:30-5a ET

Aired September 23, 2020 - 04:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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BRIAN TODD, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): But President Trump's divisive personality and his handling of the pandemic, experts say, could drive more Americans to the ballot box, fans and foes alike.

JAN LEIGHLEY, PROFESSOR, AMERICAN UNIVERSITY: Many individuals are suffering from direct consequences of the pandemic, from their own health, to their jobs, to the economy, and much of what I think citizens will evaluate will be filtered through that.

TODD: The racial justice movement this year could also energize the electorate. It's been that way throughout American history. Highly charged issues off and driving surges in voting.

The record for the highest turnout percentage in American history, 1876, when women couldn't vote, and minorities were routinely disenfranchised. More than 82 percent of eligible voters went to the polls. Rutherford B. Hayes won a tightly contested race as Americans engaged in a heated debate over reconstruction.

BERNARD FRAGA, PROFESSOR, DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE, EMORY UNIVERSITY: One reason why turnout was so high was because of the extreme level of political polarization and the work with parties were doing to mobilize their supporters.

TODD: In the modern era, 2008 saw an exceptionally high turnout. Barack Obama's historic run invigorating millions of new voters. Some of the lowest turnouts in American history experts say, came during the 1970s.

LEIGHLEY: In part, you are coming off of the 1960 election, 60, 64, 68, where there was a vigorous civil rights movement and youth movement and women's movement that was engaging a lot of people in politics on key issues. In 70s, frankly there weren't quite the -- perhaps compelling issues and conflicts of the day. TODD: This, year if the issues of racial justice and the pandemic are the engine for voter turnout, specific segments of the American population could fuel that engine. Some groups of people consistently turn out to vote more than others, analysts say.

FRAGA: One of the patterns we've seen historically and that we expect for this year as well is that older voters, more wealthy, higher education voters and white voters, will be much more likely to go to the polls.

TODD: Meaning, younger, lower income, lower education and minority voters could have less impact.

(on camera): Who could be helped or hurt this year if voter turnout is exceptionally high? Republicans have traditionally thought that lower voter turnout overall is better for them. And President Trump has openly alluded to that. But the experts we talked to say the voting data since the 2000 election at least does not make that at all clear.

Brian Todd, CNN, Washington.

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ROSEMARY CHURCH, CNN ANCHOR: Joining me now is Richard Hasen a CNN election law analyst and law professor at the University of California Irvine. He's also author of a new book "Election Meltdown, Dirty Tricks, Distrust and the Threat to American Democracy." Thank you, sir, for being with us.

RICHARD HASEN, CNN ELECTION LAW ANALYST: Great to be with you.

CHURCH: I want to start by asking you how big a delay you expect to see in the vote count for the 2020 presidential election. And of course, when we talk about delay, let's clarify that. Because there is the expectation that results would come out on the night. So, really, anything beyond that isn't truly a delay.

So, talk to us about that, but I also want to ask you what your greatest concern is about the optics and consequences of what's perceived as a delayed result? Now that we learned of a warning from the FBI that foreign actors are likely to spread disinformation about the 2020 results.

HASEN: Well, the first thing to know is that because we have the Electoral College for choosing the president, we're going to be getting our results state by state. And some states are going to be able to count fairly quickly. Those are states where they have a lot of experience counting mail-in ballots. And where they are able to process them in advance.

So, Florida for example is going to have a lot of mail-in ballots, but they process them pretty quickly. Other places like Arizona, which has a lot of mail-in ballots or California, tend to take a few weeks to get the results.

I'm especially concerned about places like Michigan and Pennsylvania, because they used to not have a lot of absentee balloting. They are going to have a lot now because of the pandemic, and because they've opened up their absentee balloting to whoever would like to use it, given the pandemic and just given the convenience to voters.

So, if one candidate is ahead in the Electoral College by a lot of votes, we may know by the time that we go to sleep, at least out where I am on the West Coast of the United States. We may know who the winner is. If it's a close election, it could take a week or longer before enough ballots are processed in states that matters for the Electoral College outcome before we know the actual winner.

That creates a period of uncertainty and it's not just foreign adversaries who might be spreading disinformation or trying to mess with the American public. It could be President Trump himself, because he has said that if he doesn't win the election, it's rigged.

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CHURCH: Let's talk about the possibility of President Trump contesting this on the basis that he has perceived it as delayed and that if there is this red mirage or blue shift that everyone talks about, these scenarios, what would be the legal basis of that? What would be the possible legal outcome of him contesting an election on the basis of that?

HASEN: He could try to go to court and challenge the vote count in particular states, claim that there's fraud, and this is the kind of thing that could get tied up in the courts for some time. It will dependent if there is evidence of irregularities in the election. If they are really aren't, I think the courts would probably pretty quickly tell him he's got to put up his evidence or you know, take his loss and that's it.

CHURCH: And of course, we are aware of some meddling going on within the U.S. Postal Service. What impact would you expect that to have on the outcome of the count of mail-in votes?

HASEN: So, I think there's been a lot of publicity in the United States about problems with the Postal Service and delays with election. There's been a lot of messaging that if you're going to vote by mail, you should not wait until the last minute.

But we know that they are going to be people who are going to wait for the last minute. And that's why we are seeing a lot of litigation now, Democrats and voter rights groups are trying to extend the time for the receipts of absentee ballots, so in some states, as long as they're post marked by Election Day. They could come in days later. These disputes may end up going all the way to the Supreme Court.

So, there's fighting over what those rules are going to be with the backdrop that there is concern that as we get close to the election with all of the controversies about the Postal Service that some ballots could be delayed in arriving back at election headquarters in each state to be counted.

CHURCH: All right. Richard Hasen, thank you so much for talking with to us.

HASEN: Thank you.

CHURCH: Well, time and again we have heard how vitally important the outcome of the U.S. election will be and now even the Duke and Duchess of Sussex are weighing in. In a virtual event for the Time 100, Prince Harry and Meghan Markle warned of the need to reject hate speech, misinformation and negativity online.

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MEGHAN MARKLE, DUCHESS OF SUSSEX: What we're exposed to online seeps into how we engage with each other off-line. It can train us to be kind or it train us to be cruel.

PRINCE HARRY, DUKE OF SUSSEX: When the bad outweighs the good, for many whether we realize it or not, it erodes our ability to have compassion and our ability to put ourself in someone else's shoes. Because when one person buys into negativity online the effects are felt exponentially.

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CHURCH: And the Duchess noted how we always hear this is the most important election of our lifetime, but this year she says it truly is.

Well the CIA believes Russian President Vladimir Putin is probably directing a campaign to interfere with the outcome of the U.S. election. That is according to a CIA assessment reported by "The Washington Post."

It says in part -- we assess that President Vladimir Putin and the senior most Russian officials are aware of and probably directing Russia's influence operations aimed at denigrating the former U.S. Vice President, supporting the U.S. President and fueling public discord ahead of the U.S. election in November.

It's no secret President Trump and President Putin have a friendly relationship. It's one of the U.S. President -- it's one that the U.S. President mentions often and considers beneficial.

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DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: If I got along with Putin, somebody says he gets along well with Putin. I'm saying to myself, but isn't that sort of a good thing? Is that bad?

We've been very rough but at the same time we get along. I like Putin, he likes me. You know, we get along. It's bet -- isn't it wouldn't you say it's smart to get along. OK. Smart.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CHURCH: Well meantime, Joe Biden is getting another prominent endorsement just six weeks out from election. It's from Cindy McCain, the widow of longtime Republican Senator and former presidential candidate John McCain. She described Biden as a good and honest man. Saying he will lead the country with dignity. The endorsement follows McCain's appearance in a video about Biden's relationship with her late husband at the Democratic National Convention in August.

And we are getting an idea as to how the first presidential debate will shape up. It will focus on a number of topics including the coronavirus pandemic, the Supreme Court, and the racial reckoning in this country -- according to the debate commission. It will be broken into six 15 minute segments. The commission said that the topics are subject to change based on news developments.

And tune in next Tuesday night Eastern time for the first of three presidential debates.

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CNN will carry the debate live and our special coverage begins at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

And still ahead diplomatic drama, President Trump calls for the United Nations to punish China, but the country's ambassador fires right back.

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CHURCH: President Donald Trump is calling for the United Nations to act against China in his address to the U.N. General Assembly. Mr. Trump blamed Beijing for the coronavirus pandemic. In a pre-recorded message the President struck an optimistic note about the fight against the virus. But he also called for China to be punished.

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TRUMP: We will distribute a vaccine. We will defeat the virus. We will end the pandemic. And we will enter a new era of unprecedented prosperity, cooperation and peace. As we pursue this bright future, we must hold accountable the nation which unleashed this plague on the world, China.

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CHURCH: Meanwhile, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani used his address to slam the U.S. over sanctions. He says Iran is, quote, grappling with the harshest sanctions in history.

And for more on this we have Sam Kiley in Abu Dhabi and Will Ripley in Hong Kong. Good to see you both. So, Will, how is China responding to calls from President Trump for Beijing to be punished for its part in the coronavirus?

WILL RIPLEY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Rosemary, it was relatively unusual for China's ambassador the U.N. to call a press conference directly in response to President Trump's speech. Surprisingly short, around five minutes but most of the time spent, as expected, unleashing that attack on China because of the COVID-19 pandemic. China's U.N. Ambassador said the real blame falls on President Trump

for a lack of leadership.

[04:45:00]

Call the U.S. response an absolute failure. And he said if America hopes to be great then leaders need to grow up, essentially. It was very pointed remarks, angry remarks, which probably indicate the consensus within Chinese Communist Party.

Xi Jinping however, in his prerecorded address -- which appeared at the U.N. General Assembly after President Trump. Took a much more -- kind of tone that he's been taking at the number of global events. Touting the virtues of multilateralism as opposed to the United States increasingly unilateral approach. Talking about things like free trade for example, which China greatly benefits from even though China's markets are largely closed off.

You know Xi Jinping talks about world peace even as China continues to militarize the South China Sea. Sending troops up to its border with India and the Taiwan Strait. So some of the words of President Xi have not translated into policy.

So both leader have kind of a conflict on their hands. Because the United States has long, you know, said that it's basically a force for good in the world and yet you have this combative aggressive speech from President Trump. Which is on brand and certainly appealing to those within his party and those in his base who want to see the United States go hard on China.

And then you have the Chinese leader, you know, basically acting as if he is the adult in the room, the elder statesman, if you will, but on the ground, you know, any sort of dissent, any sort of criticism of Xi is, you know, quickly crushed. I mean you're talking about not only in mainland China but with the National Security Law here in Hong Kong.

CHURCH: Thanks so much to Will. And, Sam, let's go to you. Because of course, as we reported Iran's President slammed the United States because of sanctions. Talk to us about the impact of those sanctions and the latest on them.

SAM KILEY, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well the U.S., the bilateral sanctions that have been imposed effectively since the Americans walked out of the JCPOA, the multilateral deal struck with Iran that would mean that United Nations Security Council sanctions, or multilateral sanctions would be lifted in return for Iran's suspension of its nuclear program.

Now that was a deal that Donald Trump campaigned on for the presidency saying that it was a terrible deal and sure enough, he walked out of it and imposed these bilateral sanctions. They are having a catastrophic effect on the Iranian economy already. And just in last few days another member of the Iranian regime, the minister of defense had personal sanctions imposed on him by executive fear, effectively by President Trump. Now that's the bilateral sanctions. What the Trump administration now

wants to see coming from the United Nations are United Nations reimposition of the previous sanctions regime that effectively could be argued, pressured Iran into signing up to the nuclear deal in first place. British, the French and the Germans are saying, sorry, you have no standing in this matter, United States, because you've walked away from the deal. And you therefore, no longer considered a legal partner in that process.

The Americans have countered saying that those that fail, those nations that fail to impose U.N. sanctions could end up themselves facing or their companies facing prosecution in the United States. There's a very bitter division that has emerged there. And of course, the Iranians are making hay with that too -- Rosemary.

CHURCH: Yes, all right, Sam Kiley and Will Ripley, many thanks to you both.

And still to come, the coronavirus pandemic has crippled the world's economy. But President Trump is telling his supporters next year will be the best year economically. We will dig into that prediction in just a moment.

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CHURCH: To Australia now. And a rescue effort is under way to save hundreds of beached whales in one of the world's largest mass whale strandings. They are scattered along two sand bars and a strip of beach in on the southern island state of Tasmania. Dozens have already died. Biologist don't know how it happened. But one expert involved said it's possible the animals swam in to help a distressed member of the pod. Weather conditions have kept the whales cool and wet but the rescues will take days to complete and many more could die.

Well, the pandemic has plunged the global economy into a recession but what White House insists the U.S. is recovering quickly. Meanwhile U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin have reached an agreement to take the threat of a government shutdown off the table. Jon Defterios is in Abu Dhabi with more on all of this. So, John, first, President Trump insisting that 2021 will be the best year economically. Any evidence to support his forecast?

JOHN DEFTERIOS, CNN BUSINESS EMERGING MARKETS EDITOR: No, not any iota of evidence right now at least, Rosemary, because of what we're faced with. The President suggesting let's put everything on the third quarter, all the chips are on the table here. But you would expect a recovery in the third quarter because the second quarter was a record drop of 31 percent and then making pledges for 2021, even 10 million jobs over 10 months, Rosemary, that's never happened before.

And I think a more sober assessment and one that's more independent comes from the Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell. Who's been on Capitol Hill this week saying that the future remains very uncertain particularly if we don't get major stimulus into the system. There was talk of $1.5 trillion. He's particularly worried about youth unemployment, unemployment for black Americans as well, which is backed up at 13 percent. The overall unemployment rate 8.4 percent.

It's still 13 million Americans without a job and it looks like the corporate sector is still struggling with restructuring. Sizzler restaurant is going into bankruptcy protection chapter 11 -- as their called in United States -- and shuttering the restaurants it still owns on the West Coast. And major mall operator Brookfield, is going to be laying off 20 percent of its employees in the malls themselves and also headquarters.

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We saw the pressure on the malls before because of Amazon and retail sales online. But this has been accentuated because of COVID-19. So if we're looking for a silver lining here for equity markets and some solace going into the elections, we don't have the major stimulus package. But a sense of compromise with Nancy Pelosi, the House Speaker, and the Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin, agreeing to disagree. We are not going to go for the big package but we're not going to let us go into a budget crisis right now. So the deal is to extend through December 11th and avoid the election chaos that's already going to be pretty tumultuous -- Rosemary.

CHURCH: All right, Jon Defterios, many thank as always. Joining us live from Abu Dhabi. Appreciate it.

Well, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has issued its first pandemic guidance for the holidays. And it is discouraging many activities popular for Halloween. The agency says door-to-door trick or treating, indoor costume parties, haunted houses and other seasonal events are high-risk and should be avoided. Costume masks are also discouraged as the CDC says they are not a substitute for cloth masks. The new guidance rates activities from low risk to moderate and higher risk and it applies to Day of The Dead celebrations as well.

And thank you so much for your company. I'm Rosemary Church. "EARLY START" is coming up next. You're watching CNN. Have yourselves a wonderful day.

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