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Trump and Biden Battle it Out for Swing State Voters; South Dakota Breaks Records with Surge in New Cases; Longtime Republican James Baker Calls President Trump Nuts and Crazy But Still Plans to Vote Republican. Aired 11:30a-12p ET

Aired September 29, 2020 - 11:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

JOHN KING, CNN INSIDE POLITICS: On race relations, a lead on the Supreme Court and a giant lead on health care.

[11:30:03]

The big issues facing the voters, this is the commonwealth of Pennsylvania, advantage Biden. Why do we focus so much on Pennsylvania, because it was so important to the president four years ago and because of this math. Look at this, 269-169. If Joe Biden takes, that it's game over. It's 20 electoral votes.

As the president tries to find a comeback path, he needs the big ones like Florida, the big ones like Ohio, the big ones like Pennsylvania. It's hard to make it up for the president if he loses this 20 right there. That's why Pennsylvania is so critical. That's why both campaigns, listen here, throwing a lot of money into T.V. ads.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOE BIDEN (D), PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: If you elect me, your taxes are going to be raised, not cut.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: What does that mean for you? More taxes taken out of your paycheck, an economy in ruins. President Trump is bringing jobs back.

BIDEN: To our seniors, social security is a sacred obligation, a sacred promise made. The current president is threatening to break that promise. I will not let that happen.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: The Democratic pollster, Margie Omero, Republican pollster Neil Newhouse join us now. Thank you both for being here.

Neil, I want to start with you just to emphasize the point. Look, it's one state. The president has other paths to get to 270. But given the makeup, the composition of Pennsylvania, how important it was in 2016, when you look at the polling numbers that show Biden's consistent lead, nine points in that new poll today, how difficult does that tell you the president's path to a comeback this year? NEIL NEWHOUSE, REPUBLICAN POLLSTER: John, there's no question the president is behind. I mean, every poll shows it right now. And in order to win this race, he's got to do the same thing he did in 2016, which is essentially, you know, thread the Electoral College needle. I mean, this is a -- it's a very tough challenge. But it all starts with tonight.

If he's going to come back, if he's going to come back and win the race, it has to start tonight. He has to put Joe Biden on the defensive, and he's got to make the case for his presidency.

KING: And, Margie, you know, we all lived through 2016, so that gives Democrats a sense of jitters, I Guess, is one word. I could use less polite words. But when you look

at those polling, there's no question, as Neil just noted, Joe Biden has the advantage heading into this first debate and he has an advantage many would say is bigger than the advantage Hillary Clinton had four years ago.

But you do look around and Democrats are nervous because of that history. This is a Monmouth University poll just looking at swing counties, right, counties that is swing back and forth in presidential politics, Trump, 47, Biden, 46. If you -- when you look at the numbers and you look at the map, what is the one concern you hope Joe Biden deals with tonight?

MARGIE OMERO, DEMOCRATIC POLLSTER: Well, you know, I think we're all going to be watching to see what the president says about a whole host of things. I mean, you showed the advertising ads on Pennsylvania. It's really rich that he is talking about people's tax bill and paying too much in taxes given what we've learned about how little he's paid in taxes.

The numbers -- I agree with Neil. The numbers are consistent. They are consistent in Pennsylvania. They're consistent nationally. They are consistent in states that were not even really considered battle grounds. They are consistent not just at the top of the ticket but in the Senate races and congressional races and everybody who feels mobilized across the country.

I think the main issues is making sure people vote, that they know how to vote, that they feel comfortable voting given the changes in voting that they vote in person or vote by mail, vote absentee, that's the main challenge for both candidates. And certainly it's one that a smart campaign would really focus on.

KING: And if you look at the numbers, both of you know them better than me, but, again, this from the Monmouth poll. How likely will had the debate change your mind about which candidate you're going to support? Very likely or somewhat likely, only 13 percent say that, not likely, 87 percent.

So, Neil, most voters, not surprising, the numbers were very similar four years ago. We live in a polarized world. If you're an incumbent and you are behind, how do you get people? What is the key to get people to give you a second look? NEWHOUSE: Well, first of all, 13 percent is more than enough to change the course of this election.

KING: Yes, it is.

NEWHOUSE: No question about it. But, you know, John, we've been talking about this for months, and the need for the Trump campaign to turn this from a referendum on Donald Trump and his presidency to a choice. And that's what he has to do tonight. He has to demonstrate there's a choice between these two candidates. And he's got to put Joe Biden on the defensive. There's no question this is his -- maybe his last best chance to begin to turn this around.

KING: Last best chance, a good way to put it. And when had you look at it, Margie, again, it's the first debate but the first one tends to get a bigger audience. The first one is if people are making their mind, especially with all the early voting. A lot of people have already voted even before this first debate. And many will be doing their vote in the next few days.

If you look at it right now, we can go state-by-state, but you can also look at sort of the different voting groups. The president has an advantage among men, among white voters, among white voters without college degrees. Joe Biden has a giant lead among women, voters of color, white voters with degrees and he's doing very well among young voters, which is typical for Democrats, but his performing, seniors have been a constituency trended towards the Republicans in recent years, Biden is doing well.

[11:35:05]

Again, in a debate context, do you walk in, do you tell your candidate as he is about to walk on to the stage, this is the one thing you must do, and if it's Joe Biden what is it?

OMERO: Look, I think he needs to demonstrate the way he is not like the president, and that is showing compassion, showing understanding, showing mastery of the facts, showing real focus on the -- you know, hundreds of thousands of families who have lost someone from the coronavirus.

We have now polling out today that shows that 40 percent of Americans say that someone in their household has lost jobs or wages or hours as a result of the coronavirus. Joe Biden can speak to that. President Trump doesn't seem to.

KING: Margie and Neil, I appreciate your perspective. We'll continue this conversation Five weeks until Election Day, a big debate night tonight. Thank you both for helping us understand it.

When we come back, back to the coronavirus, it is hitting everywhere, everywhere you live, states big and small, including South Dakota right now experiencing a surge.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[11:40:00]

KING: South Dakota right now breaking records you don't want to break. The number of coronavirus cases in hospitalizations surging in the state. South Dakota now seeing its highest seven-day average of cases since back in the beginning of the pandemic. Right now, it has the highest positivity rate in the country. But the Republican governor, Kristi Noem, says no plans to issue any new restrictions.

This is what the surge looks like. You can see the seven-day average of new cases in this state heading up. And this is what it looks like in South Dakota's biggest city, Sioux Falls.

Paul TenHaken is the mayor of Sioux Falls, South Dakota, and joins us now. Mr. Mayor, it's been a while. It's good to see you again.

Let me just ask the simple question, why? Case count is going up. Is this -- we talked months ago. You had meat packing issues. You had some clusters. Is it something like that, is it schools or is it a little bit of everything?

MAYOR PAUL TENHAKEN (R-SIOUX FALLS, SD): Well, John, hey, thanks for having me back. Good to see you. I think it's a little bit of everything. When we got back to school in fall, schools are all open in South Dakota, colleges are back, meeting in person, and we're having events, we're having sporting events, things like that.

We are at a state that values personal freedoms and values liberties. And because of that, we haven't had a lot of restrictions. We haven't had a lot of lockdowns. We haven't had a lot of government mandates. And with that comes an increase in cases.

And so we're certainly surging right now and we're not hiding from that fact. We also know though that our health care systems are very comfortable with what they are seeing right now. While they are operating at a pretty intense level in terms of the cases they are seeing, it's not unprecedented. So we continue to rely on, you know, what they tell us in terms of their confidence level to treat patients.

KING: All right. So, let's dig a little deeper on that. We have from your city the hospitalization chart. And if you just look at the trend line, it tells you, you know, that's not good, right? You don't want to see lines heading up in terms of hospitalizations. But you say when you check in with the administrators, they tell you, you know, it's not as great -- not as good as yesterday maybe but not in a trouble spot yet, is that right?

TENHAKEN: Yes, that's correct. We've had the luxury of preparing for this surge for months now. We are about six, seven months into this coronavirus situation. So we've been preparing for our surge for a long time.

You know, our hospital systems have operate actually at these sorts of levels in the past pre-COVID, so it's not rare. It's not uncertain waters that we're in. That being said, of course, we want to see the hospitalization numbers decrease. And so what we're taking, you know, is more of a light touch government approach to mandate some lockdowns and we're really ramping up messaging, where we're asking people, hey, this is what we expect of you. If we take a personal freedom approach, that comes with responsibility. That comes with mask-wearing when you feel it's appropriate. That comes with social distancing it.

And, you know, our health care systems have appreciated that approach. We stay in touch with them on a daily basis and they just continue to say, hey, be with the messaging and continue to double down on that messaging with the public. But know that we're still in a good spot from a bed capacity, ICU capacity and ventilator capacity to treat COVID patients in our state.

KING: One of the reasons why we like to check in with you, and I think it's important that people around the country understand and respect that the 50 states are different. And you're out more to the west, down in the Prairies (ph), where there is more of a culture. We don't like the government telling us what to do. That's one of the reasons people moved out that way in the beginning when the country was being settled.

And so I do think it's important that people listen and respect and then there's question, as you said, personal responsibility. If you don't want restrictions, you better behave. Don't put the government in a position where it has to impose restrictions on you.

A video by your governor went viral last week. I want to play it, then ask you about it on the other side. She is making the case, we want to honor our culture and our traditions and we're doing fine.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GOV. KRISTI NOEM (R-SD): I'm the governor of South Dakota. This is how we do social distancing in our state.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: That was great.

NOEM: Right. Less COVID, more hunting, that's the plan for the future.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: Less COVID, more hunting. Now, again, that went viral. Some people saying it's not serious enough, it's not a serious message to send at this time. Other people are saying, actually, there's the governor outdoors, no one is around here.

[11:45:02]

She is trying to say, there are ways to do this. What's your take on that?

TENHAKEN: First of off, I don't know how many governors that can hit a bird in three shots. So our governor is a good shot and is a good hunter.

I will say this, and you said it earlier before we went to that clip. Every state is different. Every state is handling this different. We in South Dakota have taken, like I said earlier, a light touch approach from a government regulation standpoint, relying more on the residents and our citizens to do the right thing.

I can certainly appreciate that approach. It certainly made the phone ring in South Dakota from businesses and residents that are interested in coming to a state that is allowing people those personal freedoms.

So we're balancing this economy, public health thing with surgical precision. It's very hard but I continue to appreciate the approach the governor is taking.

KING: Mr. Mayor, we'll check back in with you and we wish you the best of luck in the days ahead at this tenuous time. Thank you so much.

TENHAKEN: Thanks, John.

KING: Thank you, sir.

Up next for us, Jim Baker was a Republican establishment figure in Washington for decades, close to four Republican presidents. A new book about Jim Baker out, we will talk to one of its authors. He calls President Trump nuts.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[11:50:00]

KING: James Baker is the man who understands the presidency and the politics winning the presidency. So it is noteworthy that he calls President Trump nuts and crazy.

Now, Baker's resume is the stuff of legend, White House chief of staff, treasury secretary and secretary of state, an essential adviser to four Republican presidents, Gerald Ford, Ronald Reagan both George H.W. and George W. Bush.

The Man Who Ran Washington is the appropriate title of the new book by Journalist Susan Glasser and Petter Baker. They detailed Jim Baker's powerful role in Republican politics and government for decades and they detail how he considered voting for Joe Biden because of his exasperation with President Trump.

But Republican loyalty appears to be winning out. Quote, rather than reject a president they fear has damaged their party and may drag it down to defeat in election five weeks from now, Republicans like Baker have doubled down on Trump without ever fully accepting him even as the cost that Baker fear from a Trump presidency have become all too real for the country and Baker, personally.

Susan Glasser joins us now. That article in The New Yorker about this book. Susan, there is nobody not president of the United States who has not been president of the United States who's had more influence on this town over the last 34 years than Jim Baker.

So, Trump routinely flips the bird at people like that. He is the Republican establishment. Talk about the anguish Jim Baker who himself had coronavirus in the spring when he looks at the Trump presidency his anguish.

SUSAN GLASSER, CNN GLOBAL AFFAIRS ANALYST: Well, that's right, John. Thank you so much. I mean, I think that we set out to do this study of Jim Baker and how power works in Washington seven long years ago during the Obama era when it was already clear what kind of Washington dysfunction and gridlock there was, then Trump came along. And we've had five years worth of these very anguish conversations about what is really a hostile takeover of Baker's Republican Party.

I think it tells you a lot about why Republicans have lived with Trump, many of them never accepting him, like Jim Baker, they think privately that he's nuts, that he is crazy, that he is opposed to many of their core beliefs, like in Baker's case, the internationalism and American leadership on the world stage, free trade, and yet, have had a very difficult time just coming out and rejecting him at such a partisan moment.

KING: And so let's talk about -- well, Baker has some experience at just about every crisis a president faces in every big moment. He was instrumental when Ronald Reagan made a choice, Ronald Reagan, who knew how to play to his base. Just like Donald Trump, Ronald Reagan knew very well how to play to his base. But faced with a Supreme Court vacancy, he decided at Jim Baker's urging not to go for the base but to go for the middle with Sandra Day O'Connor.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

RONALD REAGAN, FORMER U.S. PRESIDENT: I will send to the Senate the nomination of Judge Sandra Day O'Connor of Arizona Court of Appeals for confirmation as an associate justice of the United States Supreme Court.

She is truly a person for all seasons, possessing those unique qualities of temperament, fairness, intellectual capacity and devotion to the public good which have characterized the 101 brethren who have preceded her.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: The current president operates in a very different way, sending up a nominee in Judge Amy Coney Barrett, who people think will overturn Obamacare, who people think could overturn Roe v. Wade. That is a definite play to the base.

GLASSER: Absolutely. In fact, it tells you everything about how the incentives in Washington today are so different but also how someone like a Jim Baker makes a difference. There were hard line conservatives in Reagan's era who didn't want Sandra Day O'Connor and Jim Baker literally blocked them from meeting with Reagan in the Oval Office. And so having advisers makes a huge difference and then listening to them. And I think that Baker, personally, was very invested in wanting Sandra Day O'Connor, first woman on Supreme Court, it's a major part of Reagan's legacy, it shows that playing to the center still was politically seen as attractive at that time.

Right now, you have a situation where the president and the Republicans around him are playing constantly to the base, to the divisions and the polarization. And so I think that's a classic example of where Jim Baker's Washington is not the Washington that we're operating in right now, the incentives to govern from the center have disappeared.

KING: And this president doesn't see the value of having more adults in the room is one way -- I will put it that way, I guess.

[11:55:03]

Susan Glasser, grateful for your time, a very important book. I hope people read it. You'll learn lessons about the past that you can apply to the present. Susan, thanks so much for sharing some time with us.

Up next for us, new evidence that more of you are going back to work.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KING: America's back to the office experiment is gaining a little steam but working from home is still a big piece of the coronavirus experience.

[12:00:03]

Stanford University is conducting a rolling study of this issue and here are the latest numbers. 36 percent of Americans reported.