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COVID Cases Dropping; Russian Invasion Threat. Aired 2-2:30p ET

Aired February 07, 2021 - 14:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[14:00:28]

ALISYN CAMEROTA, CNN HOST: Hello, everyone. I'm Alisyn Camerota. Welcome to CNN NEWSROOM.

VICTOR BLACKWELL, CNN HOST: I'm Victor Blackwell. It's good to be with you.

President Biden is meeting right now with the new leader of Germany during what the president calls the most serious threat to peace in Europe since World War II, the potential Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Now, just a few minutes ago, you saw here live on CNN the president sat down with Chancellor Olaf Scholz in the Oval Office. They are expected to hold the joint news conference in the next hour.

CAMEROTA: Sources tell CNN the U.S. has intercepted communications from Russia which reveal some Russian military and intelligence operatives expressing worry that a large-scale invasion of Ukraine would be costlier and more difficult than Vladimir Putin and other Kremlin leaders realize.

Sources also say that Putin has 70 percent of the military manpower and weapons in place for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Some assessments say, if there were an invasion of Ukraine, the capital, Kyiv, could fall within 48 hours.

CNN's Kaitlan Collins is at the White House for us. CNN's Frederik Pleitgen is in Berlin.

So, Kaitlan, what do we expect to hear from the president and the chancellor in the next hour?

KAITLAN COLLINS, CNN CHIEF WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, the purpose of this meeting today is obviously, number one, to talk about what's happening in Ukraine and these efforts that you are seeing on a diplomatic level to try to deter a Russian invasion.

And, of course, you saw today President Biden in the new German chancellor putting on this united front, saying that they are working in lockstep when it comes to making those efforts to try to stop Russia from invading, given the U.S. has said that they do have the capability to do so.

But there are still big questions about if they are exactly on the same page about what's going to happen, what the repercussions are going to be if Russia does move ahead with this. President Biden just a few moments ago noting that they have a lot to talk about in the Oval today.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOE BIDEN, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Germany is one of America's closest allies. We're working on lockstep to further deter Russian aggression in Europe and to address the challenges posed by China and promote stability in the Western Balkans.

We -- then we have to take on the pandemic, climate change, and among many other issue, so we have got a lot to talk about, Mr. Chancellor, Chancellor.

And we will often -- I'm looking forward to us working closely together.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COLLINS: Now, the German chancellor has faced some criticism from lawmakers here in Washington who have visited Ukraine, saying that he's been a little too muted on what exactly the response would be if Russia does invade Ukraine.

They want to have a more clear outlook of what the sanctions are going to be, what Germany is going to do if Russia does move. And, of course, a big question has been that natural gas pipeline that has been built between Russia and Germany known as Nord Stream 2, and whether they would stop or seek to stop it or prevent it from becoming operable if Russia does invade, given that is something that President Biden's national security adviser has said will happen, that it will not go forward.

We have not yet heard that from the German chancellor.

BLACKWELL: All right, let's go to Berlin now.

Fred, Germany has been criticized for sending helmets, instead of weapons, or not deploying troops to NATO allies in Eastern Europe.

FREDERIK PLEITGEN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes.

BLACKWELL: So, what is the chancellor's perspective, the German perspective going into this meeting?

PLEITGEN: Well, I think, first of all, that the new German chancellor certainly does want to show the United States, does want to show President Biden specifically that the Germans are a strong and reliable ally, because you're absolutely right.

There are some in NATO that have called some of that into question. One of the things that we have to fundamentally say is that Olympics is a transatlantic politician. He deeply respects President Biden specifically. He has in the past said that he has good relations with President Biden. However, in the last couple of weeks, especially as this crisis near Ukraine has been unfolding, we have seen some of the things that the German chancellor has not said and has not done have really caused quite a stir. He has been quite silent over the past couple of weeks here. The Germans have only said that they are going to deliver about 5,000 helmets to Ukraine.

They have even vetoed, for instance, Estonia providing Howitzers to Ukraine as well. So, certainly, that is one of the things where he's going to have some pretty tough talks with President Biden on that subject.

Now I know that on the plane going to D.C. today, he did stand by that position and said that Germany will not deliver any weapons to Ukraine, because Germany fundamentally says that they do not deliver weapons into crisis areas.

Now, this does come as Germany had records arm sales, actually, in the past year, so a bit of a difficult position there. But what Kaitlan just mentioned there was the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. And I think that that certainly is going to be a very important point as well.

[14:05:08]

So far, all the chancellor has said is that he -- that all options are on the table. He says he wants to keep that ambiguous at this point in time. But, of course, the U.S. says, if Russia further invades, that pipeline simply isn't going to happen, guys.

CAMEROTA: OK. Kaitlan Collins, Fred Pleitgen, thank you both.

Also today, a pivotal meeting in Moscow, French President Emmanuel Macron trying to convince Vladimir Putin to pull back and abandon any plans to invade Ukraine.

CNN international diplomatic editor Nic Robertson joins us live from Moscow.

So, Nic, what did Macron say to Putin?

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMATIC EDITOR: Well, they're still behind closed doors, the meeting, I think, going on longer than perhaps people had expected. It did start late in the day.

There were some comments before, President Putin thanking Macron for getting involved, saying that -- essentially, that the phone calls that they had had over recent days were positive. And he does seem to be looking to President Macron to put pressure on the Ukrainians to get into a conversation with the pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine, sort of under the auspices of the Normandy Four group -- that's Russia, Ukraine, Germany, and France -- to sort of stabilize internally inside Ukraine.

And, of course, we heard from Secretary of State Antony Blinken talking about that recently, because that deal has been out there for some time. And he said, look, overall, Ukraine has done most of what it was supposed to do under the Minsk agreement. Russia has done very little of what it's supposed to do under the Minsk agreement.

So that's where Putin appears to be putting pressure on Macron. Macron, for his part, saying that he has come, that he hopes to bring a de-escalation, that he hopes that he can find essentially a security solution that satisfies Russia and European allies as well.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

EMMANUEL MACRON, FRENCH PRESIDENT (through translator): I hope very much that we will be able to enter into detail on all those issues and begin to build a constructive arrangement which is mutually acceptable to Russia and the rest of the Europe, and which will help us to avoid war and create the greatest degree of visibility for all concerned.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ROBERTSON: That visibility for all concerned, I mean, he's talking here about the unity of NATO, the European Union, United States on board with all of that as well.

That's what he's talking about when he says visibility. Still waiting for the press conference. Hoping to get more visibility on what they have actually said behind closed doors.

BLACKWELL: Nic Robertson for us in Moscow.

Nic, thank you very much.

Let's bring it now retired Army Brigadier General Peter Zwack. He served as the senior defense official and attache to the Russian Federation from 2012 to 2014, when Russia invaded Crimea. His book cover ""Swimming the Volga" is about his time in pre-Putin Russia. And Steve Hall is a former CIA chief of Russia operations.

Welcome to you both.

General, let me start with you and what the U.S. wants to hear from the chancellor today. There has been, obviously, as we discussed, some ambiguity, vagueness, although Scholz says that, if Russia invades, the response will be united and decisive.

How far are the parties from making good on that?

BRIG. GEN. PETER ZWACK (RET.), U.S. ARMY: Good afternoon, Victor.

Hello, Alisyn.

Germany, critical, foundational ally in Europe, long history. There is a lot of baggage there. I have over 10 years of my life in Germany an army officer. My daughter was born. So I loved working with the Germans and served with them in Afghanistan and in the Balkans.

However, this is a time that Germany -- I understand the gas pipeline. I understand the history. But they have got to step up with Europe, and, really, that one of the great leaders of Europe. This isn't just about the United States. And with Germany and France and U.K. and the allies, then we really present a united front.

And if there is a gas problem, then it is up to the rest of us, including Qatar and others, to work around the Nord Stream issue, but you can't let that determine, if you will, really critical, not just functional, but philosophical aspects of our foreign policy, while we're all facing this in Europe today.

CAMEROTA: Peter, what do you think about that, Germany's role here?

And, I mean, obviously, if there's a gas problem, it's up to everyone else to try to solve. They also have -- they're quite intertwined with Russia in terms of being trading partners. And so how destabilizing is this all for Germany?

[14:10:00]

ZWACK: I think Germany has been able to very effectively be a balancer, be a really good central member of the alliance, and also balance with Russia.

In better times -- and I was there in the '90s and 2000s -- we had that balancing role as well. It is now obviously very, very -- no, Germany, it's OK, if you will, to try to fight for balance and good relations, but on something so fundamental, how do you negotiate with a country that holds, if you will, a proverbial shotgun to your head, meaning all of Europe, over Ukraine?

And so Germany's got to continue -- and they will -- believe in the Germans -- to work together. That doesn't mean you're anti-Russia, but to bring Russia to stop and bring them out of the cold.

BLACKWELL: Steve, to the extent that threats or, let's say, promised consequences for a Russian invasion are consequential or determinative to what Putin will do, how important is this meeting and what we hear from the president and the chancellor?

STEVE HALL, FORMER CIA OFFICER: I think all of these meetings are critically important, because, in my view, I think what's going on is Putin himself is still sort of -- has his finger to the wind.

He hasn't, I don't think, made up his mind entirely as to what he's going to do. Is he going to do a full-on invasion, which has some very significant downsides, or is he going to try to figure out a face- saving off-ramp for this.

And every time he meets with a foreign president or a head of state, whether it's Macron, or when he's watching the meetings between the German government and the American government, like we saw today, he's looking for signs. He's trying to see, OK, are there divisions among NATO that are significant enough that he can somehow try to leverage them to get what he wants?

So he's been doing this for years. He's been trying to separate NATO allies. He has been trying to separate the West from other Western countries. This is what Putin is really good at. So, right now, he's watching to see and seeing how much room he has to maneuver, I think. CAMEROTA: Steve, one more question to you.

Put on your CIA hat, if you would, for us. When you hear that there are these intercepted communications, and that Russian intelligence operatives are saying that this, an invasion, would be much deadlier and worse and costlier than Vladimir Putin thinks, how is that possible?

How could Vladimir Putin not know that?

(LAUGHTER)

HALL: Well, the world of Russian security, Russian intelligence services, and Russian advisers to the Kremlin is a very Byzantine one. And there's a lot of different ways to message Putin, whether you're -- whether you sit right next to him in meetings, or whether or not you're a low-level person who doesn't necessarily have daily access to him.

So it could be that what's going on is, is that, yes, this actually happened. You have got senior members of the Russian government who are saying, hey, look, that there's some significant downsides if you're going to go in one direction.

I mean, this is something that intelligence services, whether it's -- in national security apparatus, whether it's the Russian one or the American, this is just what they do. They bring out all sides. If you do this, these bad things could happen, whereas, if you do that, good things could happen.

So I think that's probably what we're seeing. It does make me a little uncomfortable to see this kind of intelligence coming out, because, when this kind of intelligence comes out, it can be dangerous for sources and methods, which is really important right now when we're trying to figure out what exactly is going on in the Kremlin.

And it always -- it's a little uncomfortable to see that sort of intelligence come out. But I -- it does sound -- it kind of has the ring of truth, as far as I'm concerned.

BLACKWELL: General, I want to talk more about energy, which, listen, when we're ranking on a hierarchy the important issues for Germany, the energy resources coming from Russia to Western Europe is certainly up there.

The last time President Biden was with a German chancellor, it was Chancellor Merkel, on what could be the role of Nord Stream 2, if it would move forward if Russia invades. At that time, this is what the president said. Let's listen. This was July.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BIDEN: My view on Nord Stream 2 has been known for some time. Good friends can disagree. And -- but, by the time I became president, it was 90 percent completed. And imposing sanctions did not seem to make any sense. (END VIDEO CLIP)

BLACKWELL: As you said, the chancellor, the new chancellor has been pretty ambiguous about this.

Is this still a period where good friends can disagree about that?

ZWACK: Well, I think that the president is being a balancer. And he also respected German, if you will, foreign policy and the economic side. And, yes, we also understood, he also understood that the Russians were also using energy as a lever.

[14:15:07]

However, since then, you -- and that was after the first big Russian demonstrating on the Ukrainian borders in April. Things had calmed down a bit. Now they're really, really amped up. Russia has given -- it's sort of puffed itself out as a potential aggressor.

And, at this point, it makes no sense. And I think that's what I think that the perspective is. And that's, I think, why our position has publicly shifted. And positions and diplomatic positions do change based on the situation. We're in a really, really serious point.

CAMEROTA: Peter Zwack, Steve Hall, thank you both very much for the perspective.

ZWACK: As always.

HALL: Sure.

CAMEROTA: Be sure to watch a CNN exclusive. Fresh off his meeting with President Biden, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz sits down with CNN's Jake Tapper. That's only on CNN at 4:00 p.m. Eastern.

BLACKWELL: COVID cases are quickly dropping in a lot of places, and there are signs that country is pushing to get back to some degree of normalcy. Several states, including New Jersey, are lifting school mask mandates soon.

We're going to have some experts weigh in.

CAMEROTA: And tennis -- Chinese tennis star Peng Shuai gives a rare interview at the Beijing Olympics. She answers questions about her sexual assault accusations against a top Chinese official.

But this interview is raising even more concerns about her safety.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[14:21:01]

BLACKWELL: The governors of Delaware and New Jersey have announced the end of mask mandates in schools. That's going to happen next month.

New Jersey Democratic Governor Phil Murphy says it's a huge step towards normalcy for students.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GOV. PHIL MURPHY (D-NJ): We can responsibly take this step, given the continuing drop in new cases and hospitalizations from Omicron, and with all the evidence projecting a continued decline over the coming weeks.

We are also buoyed by the continued growth in vaccinations and the expectation that the vaccines will be made available to children under the age of 5 in early March.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CAMEROTA: Let's bring in CNN medical analyst Dr. Leana Wen. She is also the former Baltimore health commissioner and author of "Lifelines: A Doctor's Journey in the Fight for Public Health."

Dr. Wen, great to see you.

I'm sure that parents and kids alike will rejoice in New Jersey at Governor Murphy's plan to lift the mask mandate starting March 7. But that's a month away. And this virus has been so unpredictable. Is there anything -- I mean, he laid out his reasons, the data that he's seeing, for why he's confident.

Is there anything that you see that could derail this in a month?

DR. LEANA WEN, CNN MEDICAL ANALYST: Well, I think that this is the right time for governors and local officials all around the country to lay out their pathway to removing indoor mask mandates.

This is a very different time, compared to last year. Last year, it wouldn't have been right for us to lift mask mandates, not before there was widespread availability of vaccines, including to this younger age group. Also, it would have been wrong to lift mask mandates in the middle of the Omicron surge.

But now we're seeing a decline in cases. We're seeing in many parts of the country no longer that our hospitals are overwhelmed. And so having an off-ramp is important.

Now, of course, there are unpredictable elements. We could see a new variant as an example of that, that could arise. We need to prepare for that. But I think having a plan to remove indoor mask mandates and let our children have some semblance of normalcy is also very important too.

BLACKWELL: So let's broaden this beyond New Jersey. And I see the numbers on the side of the screen there.

Fewer than 300,000 new cases the daily average, for the first time this year, down 42 percent from a week ago, hospitalizations trending downward as well.

The White House is now considering what criteria they will need to set to kind of roll back some of the advice, the guidance from the CDC or at a federal level. What should they be considering?

WEN: There are two key things that I believe they should consider when looking at this off-ramp to indoor masking specifically.

And those two things are hospital and ICU capacity. And the second is are, our boosters and vaccines still effective? Right now, the second one is very clear, in that the vaccines and boosters still protect very well against severe illness.

Also, in many parts of the country, our hospitalizations and ICU numbers are falling pretty rapidly. And so I hope that they will lay out these metrics and at the same time also say that it's not either/or, as in, some people have said, well, what about the most vulnerable? What about those immunocompromised?

We have to do so much more when it comes to ramping up testing, ramping up treatment, so that everyone can enjoy the benefits of normalcy. But let's not wait. Let's do both at the same time. Increase all these other preparations for the next variant, if that arises. Help our most vulnerable, but also lift restrictions when they are no longer needed.

CAMEROTA: Dr. Wen, the death toll is just staggering. We hit 900,000 Americans killed by this virus. That would have been an inconceivable number when this all started.

And the daily death toll has been stuck at a very high number. It's still 2,400, on average, a day. When is that going to come down?

WEN: It will come down.

[14:25:00]

And we know this, because we know that deaths, the number of deaths, is a -- what we call a lagging indicator. At first, we see cases rise, and then we say hospitalizations, and then we see deaths. And then it's going to be the other way around.

So, now that we're seeing cases and hospitalizations drop, we are going to see the daily death numbers drop too, although I completely agree with both of you that this is unfathomable. I mean, it's unimaginable that we're looking at over 900,000 Americans who have died, and, in particular, the hundreds of thousands of people who have died since vaccines became widely available.

Let's not forget that the unvaccinated are 97 times more likely to die from COVID compared to somebody who is vaccinated and boosted. So let's really help to spread that message that vaccination remains our best protection against severe illness to COVID-19.

BLACKWELL: All right, Dr. Leana Wen, we appreciate the perspective. Thank you.

CAMEROTA: OK, now to this: Why is the Republican National Committee describing the events surrounding January 6 as -- quote -- "legitimate political discourse"? No, this that you're about to see, that's political violence, and it's against police officers.

Former Officer Michael Fanone is going to join us to respond.

BLACKWELL: And sources tell CNN former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo may soon try to make a political comeback.

We will tell you what he's laser-focused on next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)