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Taliban Control Half Of Afghanistan Provincial Capitals; Canada To Resettle 20,000 Afghans Under Taliban Threat; CDC Recommends Boosters For Immunocompromised; COVID-19 Takes Toll On Children; New South Wales Reports Record New Daily Cases; State Of Emergency In Parts Of Florida As Fred Approaches. Aired 4-5a ET

Aired August 14, 2021 - 04:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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ROBYN CURNOW, CNN ANCHOR (voice-over): Hi, welcome to CNN, I'm Robyn Curnow. Coming up on the show, Taliban takeover.

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ADM. JOHN KIRBY (RET.), PENTAGON PRESS SECRETARY: What we couldn't predict was the lack of resistance that they were going to get from Afghan forces on the ground.

CURNOW (voice-over): Taliban militants celebrate as major cities fall and a massive humanitarian crisis grows by the minute.

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CURNOW (voice-over): And the Delta variant surges. Real concern that this could be the most dangerous part of the pandemic for children.

Florida braces for Fred with a second storm close behind.

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UNIDENTIFIED MALE (voice-over): Live from CNN Center, this is CNN NEWSROOM with Robyn Curnow.

CURNOW: Thanks so much for joining me this hour.

There are certainly new fears the Taliban could make moves against Afghanistan's capital in just a matter of days. So far, the militant group's advances are being met with little resistance. The Taliban now control half the country's provincial capitals, as you can see from this map, all taken, all taken within the past week.

Now the country's second largest city, Kandahar, is among the latest to be captured. Many observers see that as the beginning of the end for the country's U.S.-backed government.

The U.S. embassy in Kabul isn't taking any chances; staff are being told to destroy sensitive material while several thousand U.S. troops will be arriving to provide security and possibly evacuate personnel. The Pentagon spokesman says Afghan forces need to step up their response. Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KIRBY: Certainly, deeply concerning the speed with which the Taliban has been able to move. What has been disconcerting to see is that there hasn't been that will, that political and military leadership and the ability to push back on the Taliban, as they have advanced.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CURNOW: Ali Latifi is a freelance journalist based in Afghanistan and joins me via Skype from Kabul.

Thank you very much for joining us.

Would you describe for us what it's like right now?

I understand helicopters have been buzzing reminding residents like you that foreigners are preparing to leave.

ALI LATIFI, JOURNALIST: The situation -- you know, the city is crowded, you know, the banks have become more crowded. People trying to find flights out are unable to do so, you know, saying that the travel agencies and the different ticket offices are being overrun and overcrowded, with people trying to get out.

The average person, they're caught in this -- you know, there's always been uncertainty but there's even extra uncertainty at this point, as prices keep going up throughout the country, including in Kabul, and as the fighting around them intensifies.

You know, yesterday, the Taliban claimed a town only about 40 minutes outside of Kabul, just south of Kabul. It's never really been a safe province. But the fact that they have made it into the provincial capital, which, the entire time, that Logar was considered unsafe over the last 10-15 years, it was at least the capital that people could rely on to be under government control and not to be as risky as the rest of the province.

But now that even that's fallen, it creates -- you know, it only adds to the tension and uncertainty in the country, especially in Kabul.

CURNOW: How inevitable is it that Kabul will fall and, if so, how quickly?

LATIFI: You know, I think -- I mean, the thinking is, if they are able to take Kandahar and Herat and both of them in a 24-hour period, then Kabul shouldn't be that much more difficult.

But I think it really comes down to how much preparation Afghan forces have put into Kabul. Because a lot of the theory is that they weren't sending backup into these other cities and provinces because they were preparing, in case the Taliban made it to Kabul. And if the Taliban do come close to Kabul, that's when we will see if

it's true and if it pans out. But there's also hope that some kind of a political settlement can be reached, you know.

The head of the negotiating committee is meeting with foreign dignitaries to try to figure out something. And also with the Taliban, you know, there is a delegation that's supposed to go to Islamabad.

So it seems like there are really finally intense last-ditch efforts to try to make some kind of a peace deal because, only a few weeks ago, the government kept talking about war, war, war, we are going to go to war.

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LATIFI: We cut funding for non-war, nonmilitary projects, we have armed these uprising forces and they kept sending out messages on Twitter and Facebook that this district was retaken and that district was retaken. You know, we will continue to fight and our resolve remains strong.

And now you don't hear any of that. It seems like the spokespeople for the ministry of interior and defense have run off themselves.

CURNOW: I think I understand that there hasn't been a lot of communication, particularly as this onslaught, in many ways, has got closer and closer to Kabul.

Are you and many folks on the ground surprised at how quick this has been, how quickly they have consolidated?

And what does that then tell you about the state of the Afghan forces, of course?

LATIFI: I mean, because it's in eight days, in eight days they've managed to take more than half the provinces, right, 18 provinces; there's 34 provinces in Afghanistan. So now they have taken the majority of provinces in the country, including some of the biggest, Herat, Kandahar, Helmand.

Physically and population wise these are massive provinces, home to massive cities. So it's really -- it's shocking that they could do all of that in eight days.

You know, what you said, the clip was from the State Department or the Pentagon that you played earlier?

CURNOW: John Kirby at the Pentagon.

LATIFI: Right, the fact that he said that they were surprised. It shouldn't have taken them by surprise. Everybody in Afghanistan knew that the political establishment didn't have much of a plan, that there wasn't much coordination amongst the security forces.

Security forces were lacking basic supplies. None of this should have taken them by surprise, you know? They really should have -- I don't know if there was any way to take that into consideration or -- none of this is new. We've been hearing about this for years. We've been hearing about security forces not getting their payments in time, about them, you know, having to buy their own supplies, about them, you know, different areas being overrun because they didn't get the backup that they needed.

None of this is new. And so the fact that that surprised the Pentagon, perhaps it shows how out of touch the Pentagon is.

CURNOW: Ali Latifi, thank you very much for bringing us your perspective there on the ground in Afghanistan. Stay safe and thank you very much.

LATIFI: Thank you.

CURNOW: Thousands of Afghan translators who worked with U.S. forces may soon get temporary new homes in Qatar. A source tells CNN that the Biden administration is working to finalize the deal.

It would see the translators and their families sent to Doha while they navigate the cumbersome visa process to eventually move to the U.S. If Qatar agrees, up to 8,000 Afghans could be sent to the country.

Cyril Vanier joins us with more.

CYRIL VANIER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: If that deal goes through, it will be a lifeline for 8,000 Afghans, not just the interpreters who worked with U.S. forces but also their immediate family. They would be sent to Qatar while they wait for their visas to be processed.

However, Robyn, they are the minority of applicants to this visa -- to this visa program. The majority are not being taken to Qatar. I want to tell you about one specific case that I think is sadly emblematic of this.

There are 18,000 applicants; many of them are not in the final stages of their application so can't be considered for relocation.

When Joe Biden 1.5 months ago said we are not going to leave behind any of the Afghan interpreters who helped save American lives, I immediately thought back to one that I met 10 years ago on the front lines of America's longest war. Here is his story.

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VANIER (voice-over): My first time in Afghanistan, 10 years ago, with U.S. Marines, deep in Taliban country.

VANIER: Every time I've been north of this position we have gotten engaged with small arms fire and mean (ph) machine guns.

VANIER (voice-over): Helmand province, one of the most dangerous places on Earth.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Take cover, take cover.

VANIER (voice-over): Lieutenant Hanson wants to question two suspects. His Afghan interpreters does the talking.

MAJ. JOSEPH HANSON, UNITED STATES MARINE CORPS (RET.): I just want to know where they keep the (INAUDIBLE).

VANIER: Were they villagers or fighters?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Oh, yes.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Well, at least one of those kids is a fighter.

Would you agree?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE (from captions): Yes. Definitely they are. They bring weapons here, definitely they bring IED here.

VANIER (voice-over): Ten years later, I am embarrassed at how rarely our camera turned toward perhaps the key person in this exchange, the translator, Haji (ph). Nicknamed Tiger, assigned to the battalion's most difficult missions.

His life on the line just like the Marines.

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VANIER (voice-over): With the Taliban now extending their rule over large parts of the country, I got back in touch with him. We arranged a remote interview in an undisclosed location in Afghanistan, his identity protected for fear of retribution.

HAJI (PH), AFGHAN INTERPRETER (from captions): If they found, they'd kill me and they'd kill my family. Because I was an interpreter with the U.S. Marines.

VANIER (voice-over): The Taliban are known to murder Afghans who helped American forces. Haji (ph) says he has been on the run for 6 years, changing houses every few weeks; his children, out of school.

VANIER: What do your children think is the risk for them?

HAJI (from captions): I told them I worked for Americans, please don't go out from the -- from home and don't tell any other children that Haji is living here and that we are living there.

VANIER (voice-over): Haji has been denied a U.S. special immigrant visa twice, despite glowing recommendations from the Marine Corps and the Army, vouching for his intricate role in disrupting enemy operations.

The denial letters citing derogatory information associated with his case. We asked the U.S. embassy in Kabul about Haji's application but a spokesperson said they do not comment on individual cases.

One possible explanation, his employment letter states, job abandonment. It does not sound like the Haji I met, so I found those who fought beside him a decade ago. More than half a dozen former and active duty Marines, including his platoon leader, then Lieutenant Hanson.

VANIER: Did Haji quit on the Marines?

HANSON: Haji would never quit on us or my men.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Negative, no sir.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: He was there from the beginning, from day one. And he was there all the way until the end.

VANIER (voice-over): This is what I filmed back then, Haji in the closing days of the battalion's mission, still very much on the front line.

He says his unemployment was unfairly terminated by a private sector contractor after the 3rd Battalion Force Marines left the country for good. Haji's fate and that of so many others are now in the hands of the Biden administration.

JOE BIDEN (D), PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Our message to those women and men is clear, there is a home for you in the United States --

VANIER: The U.S. State Department did create a new path for Afghan interpreters to reach the U.S., one that's advertised as more generous. But it is going to be extremely difficult for many to apply.

Haji and his family would to have to leave Afghanistan and wait for at least a year in another country while their application is being considered with no protection, no help and no guarantee of success.

VANIER (voice-over): I asked Haji if he ever regretted his decision to side with the U.S. His answer surprised me.

HAJI (from captions): Anytime if they want me I will -- I'm ready to work for the Marines. Always. And I still tell today my Marines, if you guys come again in Afghanistan, I'll be the first interpreter.

VANIER (voice-over): The price he is paying for that brotherhood, a life in the crosshairs of unforgiving killers.

HANSON: Half of the platoon that Haji was with received Purple Hearts or were severely wounded in action or killed. And he was taking part in all those risks.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It's painful to me that it has come to this, that we are 20 years down this road and we still don't have a clear, simple, straightforward and easy path to protect the people that risked their lives for us and, in many cases, saved our lives.

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VANIER: So Robyn, Haji is somebody who signed up to work with the American forces, who believed in the American effort, was one of the best at what he did, according to all the Marines I have spoken to, his former platoon mates, and was handpicked by the battalion for the most dangerous and difficult missions.

And still he does not fit the criteria for this visa that the U.S. has set out. In the last 48 hours, his former platoon mates have launched a Saving Haji crowdfunding effort to try to fund what would be a year abroad for him to apply for refugee status.

That right now, Robyn, appears to be his only chance of getting him and his family out of Afghanistan.

CURNOW: Thank you for bringing us that story, Cyril Vanier in London.

So the United Nations secretary general is calling on the Taliban to stop their offensive in the interest of the Afghan people. It comes as refugee agencies sound the alarm over this unfolding humanitarian crisis.

Hundreds of thousands of Afghans have been forced to leave their homes because of a surge in violence; an overwhelming number of them are women and children. The U.N. says humanitarian needs are growing by the hour.

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ANTONIO GUTERRES, UNITED NATIONS SECRETARY-GENERAL: Even a country that has tragically known generations of conflict, Afghanistan is in the throes of yet another chaotic and desperate chapter, an incredible tragedy for its long-suffering people. Afghanistan is spinning out of control.

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CURNOW: With the Taliban pushing ahead, Canada says it will help resettle 20,000 vulnerable Afghans hoping to flee to other countries.

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CURNOW: And just ahead here on CNN, the CDC authorizes vaccine booster shots for a small group of Americans to get that extra dose. Coming up.

Plus, children in the U.S. are going back to school in the middle of a surge of new coronavirus cases. We will talk about how the highly contagious Delta variant is affecting kids.

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CURNOW: Welcome back, I'm Robyn Curnow.

A small part of the U.S. population is now eligible for booster doses of a coronavirus vaccine. On Friday, the CDC voted to recommend a third dose for some people, whose immune systems have been weakened.

They include organ transplant patients and people who take immune suppressing medications. Now this all comes as the U.S. sees rising numbers of cases and deaths. And the hardest hit states are dangerously close to running out of beds in ICUs. Nick Watt has more on that -- Nick.

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NICK WATT, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): An additional vaccine dose for the immunocompromised, who might not have had such a great response to two doses, greenlit by the FDA.

[04:20:00]

WATT (voice-over): CDC vaccine advisers also voted in favor.

DR. GRACE LEE, PROFESSOR OF PEDIATRICS, STANDFORD UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF MEDICINE: 11 yes, 0 no. And the ayes have it.

WATT: Sometime not yet booster shot likely for the rest of us.

DR. ANTHONY FAUCI, DIRECTOR, NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ALLERGY AND INFECTIOUS DISEASES: It would have to be in an orderly fashion. So you would not want to say, OK, now everybody is going to go getting a third boost. It will be an orderly fashion in a timely way.

WATT: In Florida, the Broward County school board is offering cash incentives to get the vaccine.

ROSALIND OSGOOD, CHAIR, BROWARD COUNTY SCHOOL BOARD: There are a lot of people that have still not gotten the vaccination and it is becoming a deadly thing.

WATT: Three of their teachers just died within 24 hours, all unvaccinated.

OSGOOD: We have not opened schools yet, so that's why the eight of us on our board are adamant that we cannot have people in schools without masks.

WATT: Meantime, more than 10,000 Texans are in the hospital now fighting COVID-19.

JUDGE CLAY JENKINS, DALLAS COUNTY, TEXAS: In Dallas we have zero ICU beds left for children. That means if your child is in a car wreck, if your child has a congenital heart defect or something needs an ICU bed or more likely if they have COVID need an ICU bed, we don't have one. Your child will wait for another child to die.

WATT: In these five states, more than 90 percent of ICU beds are now occupied. This situation is worse in states where vaccination rates are lowest. In Mississippi, just 36 percent are fully vaccinated.

THOMAS DOBBS, MISSISSIPPI STATE HEALTH OFFICER: Almost 8,000 Mississippians have died from COVID. How many Mississippians have died from the vaccine?

Zero.

WATT: Now an indication of just how badly COVID has already impacted the United States, FEMA has a program where they help people pay for funerals. That program has now given out over $1 billion to families to bury their COVID dead -- Nick Watt, CNN, Los Angeles.

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CURNOW: Thanks, Nick, for that.

And the American Academy of Pediatrics is tracking how this virus is affecting children. Here is what they found.

As of August 5th, there have been nearly 4.3 million total coronavirus cases in U.S. children. Now that week alone, there were more than 93,000 new cases in children. Child cases steadily increased from August in -- from July into August.

But children were really only a tiny percentage of the fatalities in the U.S.

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CURNOW: Dr. Jayne Morgan is the executive director of the Piedmont Health Care COVID Task Force, she joins me now from Atlanta.

Doctor, great to have you on the show, thank you so much for joining us. Certainly really worrying numbers when it comes to children.

DR. JAYNE MORGAN, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, PIEDMONT HEALTH CARE COVID TASK FORCE: Yes, absolutely. Thank you for having me on, Robyn.

Certainly, as we move through with this Delta variant, this fourth surge, we see that the impact is greatest on younger and younger and younger demographics.

And this is not only because of the virulence of the Delta variant but it's also because of our successful campaign to get those over 65 years of age vaccinated. And so now the virus is finding its opportunities on our children.

CURNOW: And why are we seeing particularly children, young children, not just youth but young kids being very, very sick in the hospitals?

We had one report of hospitals warning that, if your child was in a car accident, for example, or had a health issue, that they would have to wait for another child to die before an ICU bed would become available. That's just one example of one hospital.

But why are we seeing so many children being so sick this time around?

MORGAN: Right. This is such a tragedy. When we look at this particular variant, we have to remember that it's 1,200 times as high -- meaning the viral load is that much higher than previous variants, which means it's that much more contagious and probably confers a much more serious course, increasing in hospitalizations.

Because that viral load really determines what type of severity of disease that you're going to have. One of the reasons that we're concerned about children in car accidents -- or other people who need treatment in hospitals that are non-COVID related -- is our hospitals are beginning to fill up with these COVID patients.

So people who need standard medical care or emergency medical care in hospitals are having a difficult time or are at risk because there is no capacity.

[04:25:00]

CURNOW: What is your expectation, then, when this can ease?

And are you waiting, then, for a vaccine particularly for the under 12s?

And how much is going back to school this week or in the next few weeks and fall going to intensify this crisis that you're seeing, particularly with children?

MORGAN: You know, Robyn, those are such good questions. We just came out of our hottest month ever, the month of July. And we saw this variant really take hold. And this is a virus that really proliferates and really thrives in cooler weather.

Yet here we are, the hottest month ever recorded and the Delta variant took hold. So we are really holding our breath for the fall and for the winter. We are starting to see signs maybe that it may begin to burn out in the next few weeks.

But those few weeks are going to be quite treacherous as we move forward. Vaccines for children, I do not anticipate, will be available in the next few weeks. In fact, for both Moderna and Pfizer, the FDA has asked them to expand the number of children in their clinical trials.

We want to see more robust data, which will then continue to delay the time at which we will get full FDA approval here. So we may not see vaccines for children under the age of 12 until late into winter, unfortunately.

CURNOW: We're also seeing a number of reports of long COVID, of long- term effects, disability in many children.

MORGAN: Right.

CURNOW: As they try to recover from this.

How is that also impacting the lives of so many people and children?

MORGAN: And we certainly don't know what the impact of long haul will be on children. All of the long haul data that we have to date, that's fairly robust and reproducible, has been in adults. So that is an unknown.

But probably children, unfortunately, if they are infected with COVID, even if they are asymptomatic or have mild disease, could risk this long haul syndrome, where they could actually have worse symptoms months down the road and struggle with it for a long period of time.

So we want to encourage everyone, who is around children, to be vaccinated because we are depending on you to protect those who are unable to be vaccinated. And in this case, it is our children.

CURNOW: Dr. Jayne Morgan, thank you very much for your very sound medical advice, your analysis and also all the work that I know you are doing. You are the executive director of the Piedmont health care COVID task force. I'm going to let you go. Thank you very much.

MORGAN: Thank you. Robyn. I appreciate it.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CURNOW: So coming up here at CNN, we return to Afghanistan, where the Taliban have seized half of the nation's provincial capitals.

What does this mean for the fate of the capital, Kabul?

We have that story.

And there are growing concerns over the group's massive territorial gains and how it will affect Afghanistan's neighbors. We have the details on that as well after the break. Stick with us, you're watching CNN.

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CURNOW: Welcome to our viewers here in the United States and all around the world I'm Robyn Curnow live in Atlanta. It is 30 minutes past the hour.

I want to return now to our top story, the Taliban surge in Afghanistan. They now control at least half of the country's provincial capitals following a lightning fast offensive that has left the world stunned.

All the capitals were captured in just the past week and have sent hundreds of thousands of Afghans fleeing their homes. Many have sought safety in Kabul but, as Nick Paton Walsh reports, the Afghan capital may not be a refuge for much longer.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

NICK PATON WALSH, CNN INTERNATIONAL SECURITY EDITOR (voice-over): A Taliban victory lap through the streets of Kandahar, with horns blaring. Men and boys, piling onto a crowded vehicle, amid the fall of yet another domino in Afghanistan, the country's second largest city, now belonging to the Taliban.

It is the biggest advance, so far for the militants, retaking their spiritual stronghold. After a week of shockingly swift military gains, that has left them in control of several major cities and roughly two- thirds of the country. But it's what comes next that is of increasing concern.

ADM. JOHN KIRBY (RET.), PENTAGON PRESS SECRETARY: What we couldn't predict was the lack of resistance that they were going to get from Afghan forces on the ground. And as you heard the president speak just a couple of days ago, what is really needed is for political and military leadership in Afghanistan. No outcome here has to be inevitable.

WALSH (voice-over): One U.S. intelligence assessment, saying the country's capital, Kabul, could be isolated by the Taliban in the next 30 to 60 days. The U.S. sending 3,000 additional troops, helping get its people out of the embassy and to safety.

Many of the countries, like U.K. and Germany, also drawing down their embassy staff. The U.K. defense minister, warning that a failed Afghan state could have serious global consequences and unleash a new wave of terror in the world.

BEN WALLACE, BRITISH DEFENSE SECRETARY: Al Qaeda will probably come back and certainly would like that type of breeding ground. That is what we see. Failed states around the world lead to instability and lead to a security threat to us and our interests.

WALSH (voice-over): The U.N., also sounding the alarm, saying that Afghanistan could become a humanitarian catastrophe. Over 10,000 displaced people have recently streamed into Kabul, believing it to be one of the few places safe from the Taliban's reach.

Tent cities are popping up in parks. Many families with horror stories of how they got there.

"Taliban militants forcibly evicted me at gunpoint," one woman said.

"They killed my sons and forcibly married my daughters-in-law. We had to leave."

But the militants have full momentum and there may soon be no place left to run -- Nick Paton Walsh, CNN, London.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CURNOW: Hameed Hakimi is a research associate at Chatham House and joins me from Cambridge in the U.K.

Good to have you on the show, sir, thanks very much for joining me. Kabul is increasingly surrounded.

What are your thoughts right now?

HAMEED HAKIMI, RESEARCH ASSOCIATE, CHATHAM HOUSE: Good morning. My thoughts are actually mainly with all those people I have met over the years in Kabul that I speak to and they're very concerned, the civilians. And I think it's a moment of absolute dire hopelessness for a lot of Afghans. It didn't have to be this way.

[04:35:00]

HAKIMI: Not because the Afghans are, you know, in favor of some kind of permanent foreign occupation force, if we use the term, but because it's just in the way that their lives have been decided for them by the bigger players here -- the United States -- also the fact that the government and the president, Ashraf Ghani, failed to read the mood and either prepare for a transfer of power or concede more to the Taliban or convince the United States to not have taken the steps that the United States did.

So a lot of confusion, a lot of hopelessness and a lot of despair as to who to blame. And that's the kind of message I'm getting from the people that I speak to.

CURNOW: The Biden administration's argument for withdrawal, even in the face of these Taliban gains, is that Afghan security is not in the interest, in the national interest, of the U.S., that it's no longer a counterterrorism priority.

Do you think that's a correct assessment?

And how do you think Afghans feel about that?

HAKIMI: I believe it's a contradictory statement. You know, we should not have such short memory about the history. I think one of the tragedies that we have is in places like Afghanistan, people who are still suffering from the 1979 period, the Soviet invasion and that ripple effect.

Remember this conflict with the Afghans is over 40 years old. It didn't begin with 9/11 for them. There, people are very much aware -- and they follow what they hear from the intervening forces such as the United States.

So they obviously see, the Afghans, a full contradiction here because that's not what the administration of President Bush said; that's not what President Obama was doing, when, for example, as just as an example, they spent hundreds of millions of U.S. tax dollar money into a program called, I think, Promote (ph).

And it was to do with gender equality promotion in Afghanistan. So it really goes against all of those kinds of things that the United States have done in Afghanistan. So the fact that, suddenly, now you change course and try to change the narrative in Washington by the Biden administration, to say it actually wasn't really about state building, it wasn't really about the Afghans, then to the Afghans, that seems like a clear contradiction.

But also I must say that, for us sitting in the U.K., you know, the United Kingdom has been involved in Afghanistan with the United States since 2001. And there are a lot of developmental humanitarian but also government stakeholders, who feel incredibly disheartened.

And they are disappointed with the way that the Biden administration has gone out and done this. And, again, nobody is saying that the alternative should have been a permanent stay of the United States.

The alternative should have been a more orderly, you know -- actually a promise the United States made itself, which was that nothing was agreed until everything was agreed, that's actually what the Khalilzad, the current envoy of the U.S. --

(CROSSTALK)

CURNOW: How much, though, of an inevitability has -- is the Taliban push?

Have they just been waiting?

That they have time and they have had time for the last 20 years.

How much of an assessment of many of the military strategic advisers have said, well, listen, this is classic guerrilla warfare; they have outrun us in terms of time and this is just an inevitability?

HAKIMI: I think the Taliban have defeated every stakeholder that was fighting them, for sure because they planned for this. They planned for all the scenarios. There is, you know -- if, like me, you were immersed in the following of various narratives and different languages, it's very clear that they had a PR strategy.

They stayed on message. The Taliban have been the only party to this conflict that actually has stayed on message, throughout, largely speaking, despite making deals, despite making political concessions here and there and despite waiting.

I think what you see in the United States, people who talk about these various types of scenarios and planning, it shows a complete disconnect with the reality of Afghan lives and the reality of Afghanistan.

But it equally points to, I think, a dismal failure of political leadership in Afghanistan, as a result of which large, large segments of society, almost all country today in Afghanistan, are very, very uncertain, very unsure and scared about their future.

Just to give you a very quick background, you know, in the last -- in this current phase of violence, that is the resurgence of the Taliban taking over provincial capitals, you have nearly a quarter of a million people displaced.

[04:40:00] HAKIMI: That's according to the U.N., internally. Anywhere in the world, the number of people displaced would cause a humanitarian catastrophe and be the lead story.

And here we are, unfortunately, for rightful reasons, I understand why. But when I speak to Afghans, they don't understand it, that in the media we only hear the messaging from the U.S. and the contradictory, the very dismal PR exercise -- you just have to go see the Twitter account of the U.S. embassy in Kabul.

I mean, which world do they live in?

It's very, very sad for the Afghans. And the civilians I speak to are incredibly terrified. But you know, I really hope that, if anything, I really hope that the political process would lead to a -- you know, a prevention of urban warfare, because Afghan cities have changed in the last 20 years. That's one major story over the last 20 years.

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HAKIMI: And there would be a humanitarian catastrophe beyond belief if there is a warfare street to street in Kabul and places like Kabul, which will have dire consequences for all of us as humanity.

CURNOW: And let's see what happens. We are hearing that perhaps Ashraf Ghani will speak. What that means and when that will happen, we will bring that for you here on CNN. Hameed Hakimi, thank you very much for joining us and giving us your perspective from Chatham House.

HAKIMI: Thank you very much for having me.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CURNOW: The crisis in Afghanistan isn't contained within its borders. For years, neighboring countries such as Pakistan have been home to Afghan refugees fleeing decades of war and conflict.

The U.N. says almost 1.5 million are now living there. But a new surge of Afghans trying to find refuge from the Taliban takeover has led Pakistan to call for an international plan on how to manage the unfolding humanitarian crisis.

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UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Pakistan is very, very worried because we are the only country, apart from Afghanistan, that cannot afford a protracted conflict. We have been the victim of this war next door for over four decades. Over four million refugees in Pakistan, still in Pakistan.

But the world needs to come together to find a way to stop the violence. And the only way to do that is an inclusive political settlement in Afghanistan. Afghans are dying every day. And I'm sorry to say but a lot of times the Western conversation treats them as commodities. These are people who deserve peace.

(END VIDEO CLIP) CURNOW: For more on this, let's go to Sam Kiley. Sam has reported extensively from Afghanistan over the years.

Sam, hi.

What do you make of those comments?

SAM KILEY, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, they will strike a lot of people, particularly Afghans but also NATO commanders, over the last 20 years, as somewhat ironic, coming from Pakistan, which undoubtedly has been the principal supporter of the Taliban covertly through its intelligence services over the last two decades and before.

The Pakistanis have always been accused, quite rightly, of playing a double game in Afghanistan, partly to do with their paranoia over the potential for Indian influence in Afghanistan right on their borders.

As a result of that, Robyn, they have been long-term backers, they have given sanctuary to the Taliban; the Taliban at Quetta Shura, Quetta is a Pakistani town just across the border from Spin Boldak, which fell fairly early on, to the Taliban as part of their incredible campaign to capture now 17 of the 34 provincial capitals.

So yes, Pakistan does face problems with refugees and a humanitarian crisis. But a lot of it, certainly in the view of many of the critics of Pakistani policy, will say this is a result of your own interference inside Afghanistan.

That said, that level of influence may be an absolutely critical part of trying to get a peace deal ahead of any kind of fighting in or over the capital city, Kabul. Over the next few days the Pakistanis are trying to call a peace conference.

We've also -- we've heard that Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, one of the key elements and the most dangerous forces in Afghanistan on the Taliban side, will be likely to attend. If the Pakistanis can get the Taliban to agree to a peace deal, perhaps Kabul can be saved, Robyn.

CURNOW: While you're talking, we're getting this confirmation that Ashraf Ghani, the Afghan president, says he will address the nation at the top of the hour, in about 15 minutes' time. Unclear what he will say.

But of course, we will bring that news to our viewers as soon as we get it. Sam Kiley, always good to get your analysis and perspective. Thanks so much for joining us.

So new COVID infections are spiking in Australia's most populous state. After the break, we will take a look at how officials in New South Wales are dealing with the surge.

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[04:45:00]

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CURNOW: So Australia's most populous region enters a snap seven-day lockdown after reporting a record number of COVID infections, new COVID infections. Authorities in New South Wales say they recorded 466 new cases earlier today.

Police and military will be deployed again in the greater Sydney area on Monday to enforce tightened restrictions. I'm joined by Paula Hancocks.

Paula, hi.

What more do you know about this?

It's certainly worrying, signs in Sydney, about the number of cases they're reporting.

PAULA HANCOCKS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: That's right, Robyn. Sydney itself, this is the biggest city within New South Wales, has been under a lockdown for more than seven weeks now. And yet the numbers are still climbing.

Now we heard from the state premier that if the lockdown hadn't been in place, they would potentially be talking about thousands of new cases a day at this point rather than hundreds.

As you say, it has been a record of number of cases, once again Saturday. So of great concern, the premier saying it is the most concerning day. Also saying this is literally a war, talking about trying to contain the Delta variant and contain these outbreaks.

Now they have had the military involved. There's been some 500-plus military personnel in the greater Sydney area, trying to make sure that people are sticking to the rules, that people are following the stay-at-home edicts.

They are allowed out, of course, for medical care, for the essentials, for a daily exercise. But from Monday, there will be 200 military personnel more to try to stop people breaking the rules.

The fine for noncompliance has been increased to something like $3,600 is one of the fines, so a very steep fine for being found to have broken the rules. And what we've heard from the chief medical officer in Australia is that this is a pandemic for the unvaccinated.

[04:50:00]

HANCOCKS: It's something we have heard around the world clearly. But that's a problem for Australia, because the vast majority of Australians are still not fully vaccinated. In fact, the latest figures show something like 20 percent, about a fifth of the population, has been fully vaccinated, Robyn.

CURNOW: Thanks for keeping us posted on that. Paula Hancocks, thank you.

So coming up on CNN, a storm warning is in effect for the Florida keys as a tropical depression approaches. We will get the latest from CNN Weather. That's next.

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CURNOW: Welcome back, I'm Robyn Curnow.

Tropical depression Fred is bringing heavy rain to northern Cuba and triggering states of emergencies in 23 counties in Florida. The National Hurricane Center issued a tropical storm warning for the Florida keys and flooding is also expected in the state.

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CURNOW: That wraps this hour of CNN. Thanks for joining me, I'm Robyn Curnow, follow me on Twitter and Instagram @RobynCurnowCNN. My colleague, Kim Brunhuber, is up next with more CNN in just a moment. Enjoy.