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EU Border Crisis; Climate Crisis. Aired 1-2a ET
Aired November 15, 2021 - 01:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
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[01:00:59]
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Live from CNN Center. This is CNN Newsroom with Michael Holmes.
MICHAEL HOLMES, CNN ANCHOR: A highly anticipated virtual summit between U.S. President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart is set to take place in the coming hours as both nations look to ease recent tension. Mr. Biden and Chinese President Xi Jingping have spoken twice on the phone but this will be the first meeting between the two men face to face since the U.S. president took office. And it comes after tensions have flared over Taiwan trade and human rights.
President Xi has hinted at a slight warming of relations saying his country is willing to boost cooperation and get the two sides back on track. CNN's Steven Jiang joins me now live from Beijing with more on what we can expect. So, it's a virtual meeting face-to-face kind of what's the likely priority agenda and what are the expectations?
STEVEN JIANG, CNN BEIJING BUREAU CHIEF: Well, Michael items and topics are aplenty. But expectations are low. You know, this relationship often described as the most important diplomatic relationship in the world had been on a nosedive for some time, especially during the administration of former U.S. President Donald Trump.
You know, there were some hopes and expectations that things could be picking up when Mr. Biden took office. But that did not happen because Mr. Biden has kept most of Mr. Trump's China policies and measures and his stated goal of building this united front against an increasingly powerful and some would say aggressive Beijing with U.S. allies and partners, especially like minded democracies, that approach has upset and unsettled many officials here in Beijing considering that to be even more dangerous or threatening to China, than Mr. Trump's going to low approach.
So, you know, given this, you know, the tensions really had not only been remaining high, but in some areas growing regarding Taiwan, for example, as you mentioned, but also on a whole wide range of issues from tech to trade to human rights, which is also something very close to Mr. Biden's heart, who has insisted he wants to put human rights and democracy at the forefront of his foreign policy agenda as he tries to block this advancement of rising authoritarianism from around the world, a trend very much led by China and its strawman leader, Xi Jinping.
So given all this, it's really hard to see how they will have -- there will be any major breakthroughs on many of the major disagreements between the two sides. So the point of this meeting is probably to really put a floor on this freefall and lower the temperature so the two sides could keep communication channels open, including at the very top to avoid any strategic miscalculation, that what -- did not only cause harm to bilateral ties, but also global peace and prosperity. Michael.
HOLMES: Indeed. And I know you'll be following it. Steven Jiang in Beijing, thanks so much.
Now ahead of the Biden Xi summit, the U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the administration was closely watching China's real estate crisis. Yellen spoke with CBS's Face the Nation about China's financial situation, and how it could affect the rest of the world.
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MARGARET BRENNAN, "FACE THE NATION" MODERATOR: There are fears about toxic debt in China and a potential Lehman Brothers moment. How concerned are you about the risk to the rest of the world by what's going on inside of China right now?
JANET YELLEN, U.S. TREASURY SECRETARY: Is slowdown in China, of course, would have global consequences. China's economy is large. And if China's economy were to slow down more than expected, it certainly could have consequences for many countries that are linked to China through trade.
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HOLMES: Joining me now from Philadelphia is Scott Moore. He's the director of China Programs and Strategic Initiatives at the University of Pennsylvania. Thanks for being with us. First off, just how do you See the current state of China-U.S. relations and given the mistrust and competing interests, what can perhaps best be hoped for from this meeting?
[01:05:11]
SCOTT MOORE, DIRECTOR, CHINA PROGRAMS AND STRATEGIC INITIATIVES, UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA: Absolutely, Michael. Well, this is a relationship. And it is, by most accounts, the world's single most important bilateral relationship. We shouldn't lose sight of that in terms of how we look at the importance of tomorrow's meeting.
But this is a relationship that that's been going from bad to worse for some time. I think in a lot of people's minds. The main question is how much worse it can get and we'll get. And I think in that light how we should see tomorrow's meeting is really in terms of whether Biden and Xi can find a way to lower tensions to manage differences, and perhaps to find one or two areas of common ground and constructive partnership. But in general, pretty low expectations. HOLMES: Right. Exactly. The Six Party plenum this month elevated Xi to, you know, Mao Zedong status in terms of position and power, and let's call it job security. How does he view the West in terms of administration's which of course come and go? How long term is his view? And how does that manifest in his strategy?
MOORE: While job security is certainly one way of putting it, Michael, I think there is a bit of a difference in terms of how -- in terms of the outlook of Xi Jinping administration to administration, but I think it is important to keep in mind that both the U.S. and Chinese sides do have a custom going back several decades of holding an in person meeting within the first year of a new U.S. presidential administration.
This meeting will continue that tradition, albeit virtually, and Biden and Xi have had several phone calls and know each other quite well from previous phases of their careers. So that tradition is continuing. But I think it is fair to say that there is a lot of kind of contextual difference in terms of the U.S. versus Chinese systems that we'll hang over this meeting.
HOLMES: What is or should be worrying the U.S. about China's path, the Belt and Road Initiative, growing military activity in the South China Sea, the export of surveillance technology, cyber capabilities, what is the biggest threat to the US that will be on Joe Biden's mind?
MOORE: Well, all of those things are certainly areas of concern for the U.S. administration and in Washington more generally. But you'd have to say that the chief issue of concern right now is really Taiwan. That's certainly the most worrying point of friction between the two countries and most analysts and I would count myself among them, do you see a pretty significantly increased risk of conflict over Taiwan in the near future.
It should be not forgotten, though, that there is one bright spot in this generally fairly bleak picture. And that's climate change. Just a couple of days ago, the U.S. and China issued a surprise Joint Declaration during the recently concluded Glasgow Climate Conference, which indicated that despite all their differences the two countries are at least still capable of speaking with one voice when it comes to the critical issue of climate change.
So there is at least that bright spot 2.2. And the last thing I think that is kind of important to consider and that we should look to for this meeting is the issue of trade. And that is a little bit more complex. I think there are some potential areas of partnership and working forward. But you do see those tensions hanging over that issue as well.
HOLMES: You know, I wanted to ask you what you see as Xi's planned going forward, because he's the one with the longevity in the bank. Clearly he sees the east on the rise, and in many ways, the West on the decline. How is he and likely will he take advantage of that?
MOORE: I mean, I think in general terms, extremely likely virtually certain. And I think that's a lot of what you've seen over the last couple of years in terms of what looks certainly from an American perspective, like a much more belligerent Chinese foreign policy, certainly increased repression at home and an increased willingness to challenge liberal values pretty much everywhere.
And again, issues in areas like Hong Kong, Xinjiang, and Taiwan are probably the foremost examples of those. And I think all of those broadly fit that pattern that you mentioned of a more assertive, and in many ways more aggressive. China and Xi Jinping himself.
HOMLES: Yes, great analysis, as always. Scott Moore, thank you so much.
MOORE: Thanks so much, Michael.
HOLMES: The tension along the Polish-Belarusian border could soon escalate to a confrontation. That's the fear. The U.S. accusing Belarus of threatening regional security with actions designed to distract from Russia's military buildup on the Ukrainian border.
[01:10:08]
The European Union plans to impose new sanctions on Minsk to include airlines and travel agency suspected of transporting migrants to the border. The Polish border guard claims Belarusian security forces are helping the migrants prepare for a major attempt to break through the border. Polish troops on standby in the area as you can see.
Now there are thousands of migrants living outdoors in freezing temperatures there. The Belarusian Red Cross is delivering food and water. But the migrants tell CNN it has not been enough. Fred Pleitgen reports on the growing pressure along that border.
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FREDERIK PLEITGEN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (on camera): The Polish authorities say that they fear another escalation at their border with Belarus. The Polish authorities registered more movement in that migrant cramp and of course spread up early last week as a large group of migrants made their way from the Belarusian capital Minsk to the border with Poland trying to push into the European Union.
Now, the Polish authorities have also said that there have been additional provocations as they put it at their border with Belarus. They say that migrants have tried to push through on several occasions. But they also said that Belarusian security services have been involved in some of that as well. They say that their forces were targeted with strobe lights, and that a ground vehicle from the Belarusian forces actually tried to tear down some of the razor wire that proponents have set up and allow pass through.
The Pols (ph) are also saying that the forces have been targeted with laser pointers as well. Now of course, the Belarusian authorities for their part and denied any sort of allegations. They say that they're handling this crisis and according to international law, of course, both NATO and the European Union do blame Alexander Lukashenko, the strongman at Belarus for the crisis that is unfolding at that border.
Meanwhile, it certainly appears as though that crisis is not going to be letting up anytime soon. Belarusian state TV releasing video appearing to show another large group of migrants making their way to that border. Fred Pleitgen, CNN, Kuznica, Poland.
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HOLMES: Now many of the migrants from Iraq and Syria, at least some of them ethnic Kurds, in an interview with CNN's Becky Anderson, Iraq's Foreign Minister accuses Belarus of taking advantage of people trying to seek a better life in Europe.
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FAUD HUSSEIN, IRAQI FOREIGN MINISTER: Immigration is not a new phenomenon is an old phenomena. And it has to do with two factors, pull and push factors. I'm sorry to say that but we feel that Belarus is using these immigrants as a political tool against the European Union and European countries.
And in fact, we had various discussions with Lithuanian Minister of Foreign affairs with both Minister of Foreign Affairs was almost all European Union ministers about this issue. We cannot forbid our people to travel abroad. So they are free. And this is according to our Constitution.
But when they arrived there in Minsk, we feel that there are some organizations there, and they are organized for them to get them to the border. And then we --
BECKY ANDERSON, CNN ANCHOR: Human smugglers.
HUSSEIN: We have this problem. There are criminals and smugglers inside Iraq, in Belarus, in other countries, they are organizing these things. So we are in discussion with the European Union also. And we are trying to control this. In fact, we didn't allow Iraqi flights from Baghdad to Belarus. We forbid that. So -- And now Turkey is doing the same.
So let's hope to that we will reach a solution because at the end human being must not be used as tools for political aims for some countries to put pressure on European Union. They can use other kinds of means, but not using refugees, and especially refugees from Iraq. Now we are talking about Iraq. So thousands of them they are there. And it is a terrible situation.
We are trying to solve it. We are communicating with the refugees themselves for those make immigrants to bring them back to Iraq. That's our policy, talking to European Union, trying to convince those people to come back to their country and at the same time, giving signals to the government in Minsk. This is not the right approach.
(END VIDEO CLIP) HOLMES: The Iraqi foreign minister, they're discussing the Belarusian- E.U. border crisis. Now in England, police have arrested three men under the Terrorism Act after a car explosion killed one person and injured another near a Liverpool hospital.
[01:15:07]
The suspects are all in their 20s. No other information about their background released yet. Police say they're keeping an open mind as to what caused Sunday's explosion which involved a taxi. They're urging the public to remain calm but vigilant as they investigate. London's mayor tweeting London stands with Liverpool. My thoughts are with everyone affected by the terrible incident.
Coming up on CNN Newsroom, severe air pollution forcing schools to close in New Delhi. What the Indian government is saying about this crisis, that's coming up. Also we'll speak to a climate activist who says the COP20 deal is an insult to millions of people. We'll be right back.
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HOLMES: Schools and government offices in New Delhi are now closed for a week as severe air pollution blankets the city thick smog has hung over the Indian capital for days and air quality in and around the city is being rated from very poor to severe. CNN's Vedika Sud joins me now live from New Delhi. Extraordinary sights but sadly ones we've seen before you and I had this conversation a year ago. What's behind it?
VEDIKA SUD, CNN REPORTER: Absolutely, Michael and it is extremely distressing, especially for children who are just about ready to go back to school. Remember, schools in New Delhi resumed on the first of November. That's after the Delhi government issued orders given that the pandemic numbers had come down in the National Capital.
And just a week into two rather two weeks into they've been told hey, you can't go back to school right now. The air pollution levels are high. So if it's not the pandemic, it's air pollution. Today, the air pollution in areas and Delhi remains poor. But in the coming days, it's all set to get worse.
There are a lot of factors Michael, because of which the pollution layer is heavy in and around Delhi. One of them is stubble burning or crop burning, which happens during the winter season. Along with that it's also vehicular and industrial emissions and the open burning of waste.
Now today, as I speak to you, the top court in India, the Supreme Court is speaking with representatives both from the Delhi government which is headed by regional party and the central government, which of course is headed by the Modi government and asking them for solutions to this problem that has been plaguing the city for over a decade now.
And because of this, like I said children are not going back to school through this week. It's not only Delhi, even the surrounding cities that have been affected. According to the Delhi government, the stubble burning or crop burning leads to a huge or rather is a huge contributor to the pollution levels in Delhi. And now we just have to wait and watch and see what the Supreme Court says today and how it comes down heavily which it will because it did even two days ago on both governments asking them for solutions which are proactive and not reactive.
[01:20:00]
Because very often, Michael, we've seen it's when the top court has stepped in, that there have been some kind of solutions that both governments have come up with, where in this case, we have to make sure that this is something that happens in the long term. And not just when the winter season hits Delhi and surrounding areas, Michael.
HOLMES: It's interesting. Speaking of pollution, India was a main driver of watering down the communique at COP26. The language on coal specifically, the president of COP26 said China and India are going to have to explain themselves to the most climate vulnerable countries. So what would India's explanation be?
SUD: And through a blog, the Indian environment minister who attended COP26, interestingly said, from India's point of view, COP26 has been a success though there's been immense criticism for India wanting to phase down the coal production instead of phasing it out. Let's just listen to what the environment minister had to say.
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BHUPENDER YADAV, INDIAN MINISTER OF ENVIRONMENT, FOREST AND CLIMATE CHANGE: But when countries have a right to their fair share of the global carbon budget, and are entitled to the responsible use of fossil fuels within this scope. In such a situation, how can anyone expect that developing countries can make promises about phasing out coal and fossil fuel subsidies, developing countries have still to deal with their development agendas and poverty eradication. Towards this end, subsidies provide much needed Social Security and support.
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SUD: 70 percent, Michael, of India's energy comes from coal. India is not only the second biggest producer, but also consumer of coal. Given these figures and the population which stands at 1.3 6 billion, India's dependence on coal will stay for a long time. And that's why the Indian Prime Minister COP26 mentioned that a netzero carbon can only be attained by 2070 by India, Michael.
HOMLES: All right, Vedika Sud there in New Delhi. Thanks so much. So, will the weather provide any relief to people struggling with bad air quality in New Delhi? Joining me now CNN meteorologist Pedram Javaheri. What are you saying?
PEDRAM JAVAHERI, CNN METEOROLOGIST: You know, Michael, it's been a very stagnant pattern, unfortunately. So you know, as Vedika talked about, we see the stubble burning or the burning of straw by the farmers here, they're kind of clearing the crop and getting ready for next year soil. This really plays a significant role in all of this. And the air pattern is stagnant as has been with high pressure aloft that is kept everything in place for several days.
But when you look at the data coming out of India, especially for the northern half of India, every single year, we know about 23 million tons of straw are burned every single year, and especially this time of year. And that's the concerning part because the weather pattern as the monsoons began to reverse here quiet down quite a bit in the northern tier of the subcontinent.
But if you were to take all of that straw, just to give you a sense of scale packet together, would span in bales up to 400,000 kilometers, which would reach from the Earth to the Moon, again speaks to why farmers are doing this, their burning here is the most cost effective way to get rid of what is left of the last year's crop but and what is left of it there of course.
But as the air pattern has been is the case here we get kind of a warmer air pattern aloft that traps the pollutants at the surface level. And, you know, what's just north of New Delhi and across this region is the tallest walls in the world. We're talking about the Himalayan Mountains. So that also kind of plays a role into trapping the pollutants leading them to be as high as 224 Air Quality Index.
And again, there are the Himalayas, there's the smog in place as seen from satellite imagery and notice it is kept because of those mountains and doesn't really go anywhere if the weather pattern is stagnant. So it's not just Delhi, it's many, many 100 kilometers downstream where we're seeing similar higher quality and depth indices in place.
And you'll notice the forecast keeps it somewhat unsettled here, keeping it very unhealthy for at least the next three to four days potentially dropping it to just the unhealthy category come Friday, Michael before again, it goes downhill later into the weekend. Michael.
HOLMES: Yes, Yes. OK, Pedram, thanks. Pedram Javaheri there, appreciate it.
Now the COP26 deal reached in Glasgow has left some leaders, activists and scientists disappointed and discouraged. Critics pointing in part to the failure to create a new loss and damage fund. Wealthy nations would have paid into the fund to compensate more vulnerable countries for the impact of the climate crisis. Here's part of the debate starting with one EU leader responding to the criticism.
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FRANS TIMMERMANS, EU COMMISSION VICE PRESIDENT: And I fully understand when developing nations say there should be more finances on the table. But for heaven's sake, don't kill this moment by asking for more texts, different texts.
SALEEMUL HUQ, DIRECTOR, INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR CLIMATE CHANGE AND DEVELOPMENT: It's death sentence for the poorest people on the planet. And not only that, the polluters are saying to hell with you. We don't care. We're not going to give you a penny. It doesn't matter what else they do. That was our issue. The poor countries, the vulnerable countries came here for that and they've been slapped in the face.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
[01:25:07]
HOLMES: And he went on to say COP26 was an abject failure. All right, I want to bring in Teresa Anderson, a climate policy coordinator at ActionAid International. She joins me now from Devon in England. And thanks for being with us this morning. You've said that the COP26 outcome is a quote, insult to the millions of people whose lives are being torn apart by the climate crisis. You also said that wealthy nations, quote, block their ears and hang those most impacted out to dry. Just explained briefly those thoughts for us.
TERESA ANDERSON, CLIMATE POLICY COORDINATOR, ACTIONAID INTERNATIONAL: Yes, thank you, Michael, were totally devastated by the outcome. We really thought that COP26 would be the moment when the world said, we are in this together. Because right now the UN system doesn't provide any support for the people who are forced to pick up the pieces in the aftermath of climate disasters.
Right now, if your home is destroyed by a cyclone, or your schools and hospitals have ruined by floods, or your fields are disappearing under rising sea levels, the UN system provides no support for the people in the aftermath of these disasters. And so, millions of people are being pushed into a desperate poverty cycle. So we really heard a drumbeat of expectation that this COP would be the one to deliver funding for city to address this loss and damage as it's called. But instead, world leaders of rich countries turned their backs on the global south and said no, you're on your own.
HOLMES: Talk about and explain for people the impact of climate change on places like I mean, you're talking about Tuvalu, Tonga, the Maldives, Marshall Islands, and on and on what is the impact, real world impact but them, not just the weather and sea level rises. But there's also things like water supply, food availability, fish stocks, and so on.
ANDERSON: As ActionAid, we work in 45 countries, most of which are in the global south. So, we work with farmers whose food supplies whose crops have been, you know, they might lose a season of income in a drought or because of erratic rainfall patterns, and then have to take their kids out of school because they can't afford it, or maybe migrate to the city and search for work.
You know, we work with women whose water supplies dried up and may have to walk many kilometers miles maybe, you know, 10 miles, or 20 miles a day in search of water to bring back for their family sick needs, and are exhausted and hungry as a result.
We, you know, we work with farmers whose likeness fields have disappeared under the sea and simply don't have the resources or the buffer to know how to deal with or create an alternative income to cope with or bridge that crisis.
HOLMES: I want to get a couple more questions in if I can, what are the risks? I don't think people realize this. There are risks of actual conflict upheaval, as a result of climate migration, food shortages, and so on if these countries aren't helped, and that that's going to affect those rich countries who aren't doing they're helping.
ANDERSON: There's actually a huge incentive for all of us to address loss and damage. Because we know that the way that climate impacts are going to be, the more it will cost to fix. So, it's a huge for all of us to do the transformation needed and to cut emissions, because otherwise we're going to be conflict over the amount of resources of land and real tensions as entities try to move into each bases and have to share scarce resources.
HOLMES: But here's the rub, isn't it? What chance do poor and vulnerable the most effective nations? What chance do they have against the major polluters who control the levers of power and the purse strings? And perhaps most importantly, the narrative? How do these places make themselves heard?
ANDERSON: I mean, that is the beauty of the UN system. It's one country, one vote. So theoretically, Low Countries should have equal vote. But of course, it's the rich countries who use their arm wrestling behind the scenes to have a disproportionate voice.
But what we really need and what we really felt started to happen at this COP was the citizens of the wealthy northern countries. We're sending a strong message to their governments that we don't want to leave people to deal with this crisis on their own. We are in this together. And that message, that drumbeat is going to continue building because the issue is not going to go away. So we know this is a global crisis. And we have to work through this all together.
HOLMES: Up against the powerful and good work that you do as well Teresa Anderson thank you so much.
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All right, a quick break here. When we come back on CNN NEWSROOM, with relations at a low point, the stakes will be high when U.S. President Joe Biden and China's Xi Jinping, meet for their virtual summit. We'll discuss further, when you come back.
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HOLMES: Returning to our top story, U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping holding a virtual summit in the coming hours. It will be Monday night in Washington, Tuesday morning in Beijing.
The leaders have spoken twice previously by phone, most recently a 19- minute conversation in September. But this will be their first meeting since Mr. Biden took office.
And it comes with U.S./China relations, of course, at a low point. CNN's David Culver explains how we got here.
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DAVID CULVER, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The leaders of the world's reigning and emerging superpowers heading into a much-anticipated virtual summit as bilateral ties largely remain in deep freeze.
VICTOR SHIH, PROFESSOR, UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO: The summit's a preliminary sign that the relationship between the U.S. and China is getting back on a more normal track.
CULVER: U.S./China relations have been growing more tense since 2018, when former President Trump launched his trade war over Beijing's alleged unfair practices, slapping massive tariffs on Chinese goods.
The downward spiral worsened amid the COVID-19 pandemic as Washington accused China of covering up its mishandling of the virus that would quickly bring the world to its knees.
ANTONY BLINKEN, SECRETARY OF STATE: President Biden --
CULVER: A transition to the Biden administration did little to ease tensions. An early meeting between senior U.S. and Chinese officials, marred by fiery exchanges.
(CROSSTALK)
CULVER: Recently though, signs of progress. A high-profile Chinese tech executive, detained on U.S. criminal charges in Canada, was allowed to return to China.
Just last week, both countries coming together in a joint effort to fight climate change, and heated rhetoric, at times, softening a bit.
JOE BIDEN, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We welcome the competition. We are not looking for conflict.
CULVER: In a letter published last week, President Xi Jinping said China is willing to "enhance exchanges and cooperation across the board" with the U.S.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: What both sides need is civilization of the relationship, which would allow both powers to peacefully coexist in --(INAUDIBLE).
But the two sides, still at odds over a wide range of thorny issues, from mounting military tensions across the Taiwan Strait and in the South China Sea, to tech and cybersecurity, to human rights.
[01:35:06]
But likely topping the agenda, experts say, is what plunged U.S./China relation to a historic low to begin with. An agreement on trade might just lead to a thaw in ties between the world's two biggest economies. David Culver, CNN, Beijing.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
HOLMES: Cuba bracing for protests on Monday, the same day the island nation begins to reopen to tourists. Opposition groups planned to use the day to demand greater freedoms and the release of jailed activists.
But Cuba's government is already cracking down, surrounding the homes of activists on Sunday, including well-known playwright Yunior Garcia.
CNN's Patrick Oppmann with more.
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PATRICK OPPMANN, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): A bus blocks the street where a Cuban opposition activist lives. Cuban plain-clothes police and government supporters prevent him from leaving his apartment and journalist from going to talk with him.
The activist, a playwright named Yunior Garcia Aguilera, posted his video before supporters, telling them his Internet was cut off by the government.
"I woke up under siege," he says. "The whole block is surrounded by state security, dressed as civilians, trying to pass themselves off as the people."
(CHANTING)
OPPMANN: After widespread anti-government protests in July, the largest since Fidel Castro's revolution took power, a group of activists, led by Garcia Aguilera, called for a peaceful march to take place on Monday.
The activists say they are calling on the Communist-run government to allow more liberties and release hundreds of people still in jail from the July protests.
Cuban officials denied permission for the march, claiming it's a pretext invented by Cuban exiles and the U.S. government, who want to use rising tensions inside Cuba as an excuse to invade the island.
(on camera): The government sent buses like this want to close of the street. There are police everywhere. And there, in the distance, you can see a group of men, government supporters, perhaps police themselves, hanging flags over Yunior Garcia's window.
(voice-over): Apparently, unable to leave his apartment or get online, Garcia Aguilera holds up his fist in defiance through his window. But that final form of communication is also caught off.
A government supporter tells me he lives in the same neighborhood, and that he is proud to confine Garcia Aguilera to his home. "I was there when he opened the door," he says. "I was close to him.
He believes this is fascism to not let him out. And I said it's not fascism, it's the people, the people revolution."
(CHANTING)
OPPMANN: After blocking the activist from leaving, a group of government supporters even holds a party outside to celebrate.
When we interviewed him at his apartment in October, Garcia Aguilera predicted the Cuban government would try to silence him, unintentionally proving his point about what happens to those who call for greater openness.
"They have shown there's no rule of law," he says. "There's no possibility for citizens to legally, peacefully, and orderly show their descent to those in power."
(SHOUTING)
OPPMANN: Other activists and government critics, on Sunday, said they have also been blocked from leaving their homes. But vowed that whatever the costs, they would make their voices heard.
(SHOUTING)
OPPMANN: Patrick Oppmann, CNN, Havana.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
HOLMES: The son of the late Libyan leader, Moammar Gadhafi, has submitted his candidacy for the Libyan presidency. That's according to the country's Election Commission.
But Saif al-Islam Gadhafi faces and major obstacle. He is wanted by the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity for allegedly suppressing the revolt of the Libyan people in 2011.
In a recent interview, Gadhafi told "The New York Times" he thought his legal issues could be negotiated away, as he put it, if he wins next month's election.
The daughter of the Philippine president, Rodrigo Duterte, it's planning to run for vice presidency. Sara Duterte-Carpio filed for that office despite an opinion poll showing her as the number-one presidential prospect.
But instead of supporting his daughter, the outgoing president might end up actually running against her.
Ivan Watson is in Hong Kong with details.
Ivan, he said he is going to go into quit. There's some quite bizarre last-minute moves further the detailed a family, which could lead to an awkward Thanksgiving dinner. IVAN WATSON, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: That's right.
What you have, Michael, is a 5:00 p.m. deadline today at the Commission for Elections in the Philippines for the final candidacy of presidents and vice presidents, and other posts in government.
[01:39:57]
The election isn't until May of 2022. But what we're seeing is some really last-minute jockeying taking place, where it was only Saturday that Sara Duterte, the son of the out-going president -- the daughter of the out-going president, rather -- apologies -- she submitted her candidacy for the post of vice president.
And she had done last-minute jockeying of her own, pulling herself out of candidacy for her current post, the mayor of the city of Davao, which was her father's previous post.
And on the same day that she submitted, her father showed up at the same commission, endorsing a candidate, a close ally of his, for the post of president.
And then his own spokesman said, hey, the outgoing president is likely to put himself up to vice president, which raises all sorts of questions. Could it be a Duterte versus Duterte race for the position of vice
president?
If that is going to happen, the outgoing president has two and a half hours left to file his own candidacy for the post of vice president against his own daughter.
And is it possible that she could swap her own candidacy for vice president and run for president instead?
So we are watching very closely to see what happens in these final two and a half hours -- Michael?
HOLMES: What an extraordinary conversation they must be having right now.
And it's also fascinating that Rodrigo Duterte's daughter is running for vice president. We also have Ferdinand Marcos's son running for president. A former world-champion boxer, Manny Pacquiao.
Tell us about the rest of the cast of characters.
WATSON: Yes, it just shows how colorful the political landscape is in the Philippines.
As you mentioned, Ferdinand, also known as Bongbong Marcos Jr, who is the son of the dictator, who ran the Philippines for 20 years until he was ousted and sent into exile by a peoples protest movement in 1986, an unapologetic supporter of his father.
So he is running for president and has embraced Duterte's daughter as his potential vice president candidate. We haven't heard from her whether she accepts that.
Then, we have the biggest boxing star in the Philippines, Manny Pacquiao, who I spoke to last week in an interview, he is running for the post of president.
And then, over the weekend, met with Rodrigo Duterte. Those two have been kind in a public disagreement, a public spat, even though they are in the same political party. He says his platform will be to try and help the poor in the Philippines.
And you have the current mayor of the country, of Manila -- sorry -- Isko Moreno, who is a former actor in kind of steamy movies and TV shows, who is running for president. And other candidates as well.
So it's going to be a colorful cast of characters.
And I think that the jockeying that we are seeing, a potential soap opera between the Duterte's, underscores the fact the role that dynastic families play in the Philippines politics, the Marcos dynasty, and potentially, that Duterte dynasty -- Michael?
HOLMES: Yes, yes, as I said, it will be an awkward family Sunday lunch.
Ivan Watson, in Hong Kong, appreciate it. Thank you.
Austrians who didn't get a COVID vaccine are paying the price with a mandatory lockdown. But are the restrictive measures enough to stop a surge in new infections? We will discuss, when we come back.
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[01:45:57]
HOLMES: Countries in Europe are in crisis mode as rising COVID infections prompted new restrictions.
In the coming hours, Austria will begin enforcing lockdown measures for the unvaccinated after reporting record case numbers last week. But not everyone is happy with a mandatory lockdown.
Barbie Nadeau is following the story and more across Europe.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BARBIE NADEAU, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Protesters gathering in Viena ahead of new restrictions now in effect in Austria and other parts of Europe that target the unvaccinated.
Officials from the World Health Organization say Europe is, once again, at the center of the pandemic.
Some governments are getting tough on those who have not been vaccinated by limiting what they can do, and where they can go. In Austria, anyone 12 and older who is not fully vaccinated is under a
stay-at-home order. That, means no going out unless it's for work, taking a walk, or other essential purposes.
Though children ages 12 to 15, who are regularly tested under government standards, can participate in some public activities.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE (through translation): I think it's discriminating. I'm allowed to go to work, but the rest of the day I have to at home.
NADEAU: With only 65 percent of Austria's population fully vaccinated against COVID-19, one of the lowest rates in Western Europe, millions of people are now under lockdown again.
Though there are some exemptions for those who are recently recovering from the virus.
Officials say the lockdown will initially last 10 days. And there will be stiff fines for those who don't comply, which will be enforced through spot checks.
KARL NEHAMMER, AUSTRIAN INTERIOR MINISTER (through translation): Every citizen, every person living in Austria must be aware that they can be checked by the police at any time.
NADEAU: Germany's capital, Berlin, also singling out the unvaccinated, who, under new restrictions, called 2G, can no longer dine indoors at restaurants, go to bars, cinemas, and other venues.
Those privileges are now only for the vaccinated and those who can show proof of recent recovery from COVID-19.
The targeted measures come as Germany has some of the highest daily numbers of new coronavirus cases since the pandemic began.
Not everyone is happy with the new tactics. Business owners must now turn away customers if they don't meet the criteria.
But some, who implemented the rules while they were still optional, say there's a sense of relief that come from them.
KASTEN DREES, BAR MANAGER: For me and my employees, it makes things easier at work. The customers are also more relaxed. We don't always have to check if customers are wearing their masks when they get up.
NADEAU: Tough consequences for the unvaccinated. But with soaring new cases of COVID-19 in Europe, some governments are shifting their tone for those who have not taken the vaccine.
Barbie Latza Nadeau, CNN, Rome.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
HOLMES: More about this with Dr. Eric Topol, a cardiologist and profession of molecular medicine for Scripps Research. Good to see you again, Doctor.
These record case numbers in Germany, we've seen Germany, of course, bracing for its handling of the pandemic. The partial lockdown in the Netherlands, Austria's planned lockdown of unvaccinated.
Do you think tough moves like Austria's will work in slowing the spread?
DR. ERIC TOPOL, CARDIOLOGIST & PROFESSOR OF MOLECULAR MEDICINE, SCRIPPS RESEARCH: Good to be with, you Michael.
I think it's important that anything be done to kind of get control contain it at this point. Austria is the third in the world in terms of caseload.
So it's probably a short-term thing. The main agenda is getting that vaccination rate up as high as possible. Germany is in the mid-60s. Austria's even lower than that.
We know it's got to be 80 to 85 percent to really start to get some containment. So that is the matter right now.
HOLMES: When it comes to vaccine hesitancy, I mean, the thing that continues to strike me, it couldn't be more clear, the people dying of COVID are overwhelmingly unvaccinated.
Why do you think vaccine resistance is still so high in light of that incredibly stark fact?
[01:49:59]
TOPOL: You're absolutely right. If you look at Eastern and Central Europe, you see where there's low vaccination rates, in countries like Georgia, the death rates are alarmingly high.
Whereas, even though there's a surge in Western Europe, that we have been discussing, the rates, especially for the countries where high vaccination rates, is extremely low.
So this should be compelling evidence how critical it is to get these vaccinations, and also the waning effect.
So, certain countries are doing really well with getting the booster shots in, like Belgium and the U.K. But many countries are lagging behind.
And that is just as important, too, after getting the primary vaccinations, is getting those booster shots.
HOLMES: Variants, of course, emerge in conditions of rampant spread. And we discussed that many times before.
How worried are you, given that, with these surges, that a new variant could emerge that could defeat in the vaccines and put us back to square one? TOPOL: That is always a concern, Michael.
We know this variant, this Delta-Plus, A.Y.4.2, is not one of particular concern at all. At this point, it doesn't cause more problems clinically, and it's really growing at a very slow rate, competing slightly with Delta.
But so far, we haven't seen a variant that is worrisome to compete with Delta. But just as you are alluding to, it's possible that we don't achieve containment.
Right now, in Europe, it's the outlier. And of course, other continents will follow.
HOLMES: Of course, the European case surge happening before winter has even arrived. How worried are you about that, given the months ahead? The fears that winter is the time, of course, that COVID will spread the fastest.
TOPOL: Absolutely. We get people going indoors. We don't have the mitigation measures like the masking and distancing in place. There's a lot of pandemic fatigue.
So all the gatherings, the indoors, the holidays, these are things that could make things worse than they are right now. And so, yes, and none of this portends good things in the imminent time ahead.
HOLMES: And I know you have written about this, too. The United States is still stuck at around 60 percent fully vaccinated.
Is it inevitable the European surge will hit the U.S. as well?
TOPOL: I don't think we can avoid that, Michael. We are not even 60 percent. We are much slower to get the booster shots in than the countries in Europe.
We are also -- we had a first-mover disadvantage, because, like Israel and the U.K., we were giving our vaccines much earlier, so there's a lot more waning here. We have almost no mitigation measures.
And we are already seeing, in the last seven days, a 13 percent increase in cases. We've never gotten really below 75,000 new cases a day.
So we are starting at a high baseline. And we're starting to go up. And it looks like what's going on in Europe right now is going to have a replay here in the U.S. quite soon.
HOLMES: It's interesting. In Austria, some of the restrictions are on children. It does seem that children and teenagers are prime drivers of spread, even if serious illness and death isn't common amongst them.
But given their role in spreading, how important is it for those younger people to get vaccinated ASAP? TOPOL: I'm glad you asked about that because we do know that the teens
and children were drivers of the U.K. surge, which is now under control, and in the U.S.
So that's why vaccination of the teens and the kids, starting in the U.S. just recently, ages 5 to 11, is really important. That helps to get that containment and that total population level of vaccination very high. And it allows us to protect the children.
So some countries in Europe have done that better. But overall, we are way behind where we ought to be. We've had the teens eligible vaccination in many countries, but they're not getting the pickup and the demand as they should.
HOLMES: Always great to have your expertise. Dr. Eric Topol, thank you so much. Appreciated.
TOPOL: Thank you, Michael.
HOLMES: Much more to come on CNN, including growing concerns over Queen Elizabeth's health after she canceled what would have been her first public appearance in weeks.
We will be right back.
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[01:55:54]
HOLMES: Welcome back.
Britain's Queen Elizabeth canceled a planned appearance at Sunday's Remembrance Day ceremony after spraining her back. That is according to Buckingham Palace.
A royal source telling CNN the decision was not related to recent advice from her doctors to get some rest.
This would've been the first public event for the 95-year-old monarch in several weeks. She has been laying low ever since a brief hospital stay last month.
U.S. President Joe Biden has long paid tribute to his family's Irish roots. And on Saturday, he celebrated the Irish rugby teams 29-20 victory over New Zealand's All Blacks.
The president called the Irish rugby football union from his retweet at Camp David. Team members chanted "USA" and asked for an invitation to the White House.
On Sunday, they tweeted this clip from that video call.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BIDEN: I love you guys. Great win, man! Great win!
(CROSSTALK)
BIDEN: And by the way, when I was down in New Zealand, not long ago, I was bragging about you guys. They almost didn't let me off the island. You know what I mean?
(LAUGHTER)
BIDEN: Congratulations, fellas.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HOLMES: That was an extraordinarily good game of rugby. By the way, as an Australian, I don't mind that New Zealand lost.
Thanks for spending part of your day with me. I'm Michael Holmes. I'm in trouble with some New Zealanders now. You can follow me on Twitter and Instagram, @holmesCNN.
Stick around. Rosemary Church will up with more news in a moment.
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