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President Biden Predicts Putin Will Invade Ukraine; Gas Prices Could Spike if Russia Invades Ukraine; Biden Optimistic on Passing Parts of Build Back Better. Aired 10-10:30a ET

Aired January 20, 2022 - 10:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[10:00:29]

BIANNA GOLODRYGA, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning, everyone. I'm Bianna Golodryga.

JIM SCIUTTO, CNN ANCHOR: And I'm Jim Sciutto. A show of unity this morning after a dire prediction. One day after President Biden predicted that Russia's Vladimir Putin will likely send troops into Ukraine, and after the president sparked confusion over what the Western response would be to any Russian attack, Secretary of State Antony Blinken is meeting with European allies in Berlin, hoping to leave no doubt that Russia will pay a significant price if it invades.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ANTONY BLINKEN, SECRETARY OF STATE: We have been very clear throughout. If any Russian military forces move across the Ukrainian border and commit new acts of aggression against Ukraine, that will be met with a swift, severe, united response.

BORIS JOHNSON, BRITISH PRIME MINISTER: If Russia were to make any kind of incursion into Ukraine of any -- on any scale whatever, I think that that would be a disaster for not just for Ukraine but for Russia. It would be a disaster for the world.

(END OF VIDEO CLIP)

GOLODRYGA: This show of force comes ahead of a critical potentially last-ditch effort of diplomacy tomorrow in Geneva when Secretary Blinken is set to meet with his Russian counterpart.

SCIUTTO: Let's begin with CNN International Diplomatic Editor Nick Robertson. He's live in Moscow.

Russia signaling this morning openness to another meeting between Biden and Putin. And I wonder if they were hearing, Nic, a comment from yesterday's press conference from Biden that got a little bit less attention than maybe it deserved where Biden seemed to say that Ukraine's potential membership in NATO is a long time off, right, as perhaps a diplomatic off-ramp here. Is that how you heard it?

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMATIC EDITOR: There certainly seems to be something in Dmitry Peskov, President Putin's spokesman's comments today, that could give some grounds for hope that that could provide the path, the idea that Ukraine doesn't automatically become a member and somehow sort of get shelved, lost in the long grass. That would certainly be go some way to what Russia wants.

But, you know, we heard as well from Dmitry Peskov saying there is some willingness to talk about some issues that's positive. And he also talked about the possibility of, you know, President Putin and President Biden having another face-to-face meeting. But he caveated that, and I think that's where you get into the difficulty over the interpretation of when Ukraine could join, because Russia says no way, and the United States says no way can you say that to us about Ukraine joining NATO, that Russia is looking for a written response, right.

It's said, the foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, has said that. We've heard that again from other Russian ministers just yesterday. The deputy foreign minister has said it as well. They have to have this written response to their written proposal, their demands, their security demands as they see them, to move forward on this potential face-to-face meeting between the two presidents.

But Secretary of State Blinken has said that's a no-go when he meets with Sergey Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, tomorrow in Geneva. So you wonder how you're even going to get onto that off-ramp if the entry level requirements aren't there for it -- Jim.

GOLODRYGA: Yes. Nic Robertson, a big day tomorrow indeed. Thank you so much.

Well, joining us now to discuss is Ambassador Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations and author of "The World: A Brief Introduction."

Ambassador Haass, welcome to the program. Great to have you on. You know, I can't get over the one comment that President Biden made yesterday, and that is that Vladimir Putin has to do something. And it's not because I necessarily disagree with him. Many a top Russian experts and analysts have said the same. That he sort of pinned himself into a corner now and he has to act. But it sounds different coming out of the mouth of a U.S. president.

And I'm curious your perspective, is that good policy to broadcast that an invasion is perhaps inevitable at this point?

RICHARD HAASS, PRESIDENT, COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS: Well, I don't think an invasion is inevitable. It's obviously possible. It's not clear that Mr. Putin has made up his mind. The idea that Putin might, quote-unquote, "need something" in order to justify backing off or backing away after this enormous buildup is fair enough. I don't necessarily agree with saying it publicly.

[10:05:03]

But the real question is, can you structure a diplomatic outcome dealing with Europe that would give Putin enough, where we wouldn't have to get too much? There might be other things, you know, when it comes to arms control or what have you. At the end of the day, it's going to be Putin's decision to make, and he's going to have to think about the costs and benefits of going in at whatever level versus the costs and benefits of holding back.

SCIUTTO: Of course the other comment that drew a lot of attention, Ambassador Haass, was the president's wording about if it was a minor incursion, suggesting that the Western response would not be as vigorous. Clearly, the White House knew it had a problem afterwards because they very quickly got out a clarification and say hey, listen, no, take any territory, there's going to be a massive response here.

But I wonder, do you think the White House has cleaned that up sufficiently to this point? It was notable to see the Ukrainian president tweet this morning that there are no minor incursions.

HAASS: Yes. I understand. What the president said again may not have been diplomatically advisable, but it does have the, what, the virtue of being probably true, that the more dramatic a Russian action would be the less difficult it would be to probably pull the allies together, but anything that takes place in a so-called gray area between diplomacy and an all-out invasion, you'll begin to see the alliance unraveling and above all the Germans.

This new government there, this new coalition government, the enthusiasm for standing up to Russia, shall we say, is quite limited. And so I think the president was simply reflecting -- that wasn't news, by the way, from Vladimir Putin.

SCIUTTO: Yes.

HAASS: Trust me. He knows full well that there's divisions within the NATO alliance, the Germans in particular are (INAUDIBLE). That's already been factored into his calculations. I think what it might have done for President Biden is create some political problems here at home that if this scenario were to come about, if there were to be some type of a, quote-unquote, "limited incursion," then some people will say he greenlighted that when, in fact, it's probably been an option all along.

GOLODRYGA: You know, something that we keep hearing from Western leaders is that an invasion would have larger ramifications than just on Ukraine itself. And it didn't go unnoticed yesterday that the Iranian president was in Moscow as well, meeting with Vladimir Putin, someone who has really isolated himself from around the world many times to meet with the Iranian president.

U.S. officials to this day say that despite the tensions with the United States and Russia right now, Russia has been very helpful in getting Iran back to the table, back to perhaps rejoining the JCPOA. I'm curious if in fact we do see things escalate with Russia, if Russia does invade Iran, what does that do for -- invade Ukraine, what does that do regarding getting Iran back to the agreement at all?

HAASS: Well, it's true that Russia has no interest in seeing an Iran with nuclear weapons. It gets very nervous because it's on Muslim areas within Russia and the possibility of some materials or weapons one day making their way in again, possible terrorism. So Russia has been to some extent helpful.

I think you -- Bianna, I think you raised a larger point that this may be once where a big square on a chess board but it's not isolated. Every country in the world, friend and foe alike, is going to watch what's going on to see what lessons they can derive about American willingness and ability to stand up to aggression. They may see opportunities if we get bogged down. So as big as this is, it's not an isolated event. It will have all sorts of repercussions as you suggest.

SCIUTTO: Yes. People forget that the Iran nuclear deal was one that brought together an odd collection of characters, right, in terms of Russia, China, the U.S.

I do want to ask you briefly because the president was pushed on Afghanistan and the withdrawal. His answer basically restated his case for the withdrawal but did not answer how that withdrawal was carried out and the chaos we've seen ensue. Has the president answered sufficiently on that?

HAASS: No. I don't think he made the case either for the fact of withdrawal or how we did it. He said, for example, if we stayed, there would have been -- you know, it would have required tens of thousands of more troops, there would have been a lot of casualties. He said the casualties came down as a result of the agreement the Trump administration signed. In fact, U.S. troop casualties came down five years before when we stopped participating in combat operations.

So I still think there's big questions out there about the wisdom of leaving and obviously the tactics of how we left. I think that's all out there. It was not resolved last night.

SCIUTTO: Yes. And the Pentagon proposal had been for 2500 troops, not for many tens of thousands.

Ambassador Richard Haass, always good to have you on the program.

HAASS: Thank you.

SCIUTTO: Well, if Russia does decide to invade Ukraine further, we should note there are already Russian forces there, Americans could feel it at the pump as the conflict would likely drive gas prices up due to an effect on the broader oil market.

[10:10:08]

GOLODRYGA: Yes. CNN's Matt Egan joins us now from New York.

And Matt, you've been talking about how Americans are already dealing with rising oil prices and gas prices. How would this impact average Americans?

MATT EGAN, CNN BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: Well, Jim and Bianna, this is clearly a national security crisis. And if there is a full-scale invasion, this would be a human tragedy, too. But the shockwaves could very well be felt by millions of Americans at the gas pump. One market analyst told me that if Russia goes with a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, all bets are off for the oil market.

That's because Russia is the number two oil producer on the planet behind only the United States and ahead of Saudi Arabia. The expectation is that oil prices would swiftly soar to $100 a barrel. As it is crude is already raised back to seven-year highs, within striking distance of $90 a barrel. As you can see a remarkable recovery from the spring of 2020. And that is driving up prices at the pump which moved with a lag.

The national average is now at $3.32 a gallon, it's up four cents from the recent low. And gas prices would likely go much higher. There will be three big fears. One that the West would punish Vladimir Putin by sanctioning Russia where it hurts the most, and that's energy. Two, that Vladimir Putin would retaliate by weaponizing oil and natural gas exports by cutting off supply to Europe and the rest of the world.

And then, three, that natural gas prices would skyrocket so much in Europe that it would force factories and utilities to switch from natural gas to oil. That means that demand for oil would be going up just as supply is being threatened.

Jim and Bianna, in that situation, it's easy to see why investors would buy first and ask questions later.

SCIUTTO: Well, Biden also did make a point that Russia stands to lose as well because 45 percent, a big portion of their national income, comes from energy sales to Europe. The question is how long they can withstand it. But for Americans at home, what's the White House doing to prepare for this? The president mentioned again yesterday the idea of strategic oil reserves.

EGAN: Right. This is a very tricky situation for the White House because, you know, we know that millions of Americans are really feeling economic anxiety. Inflation is already a big problem. And so what the National Security Council is telling us in a statement is that, quote, "We are prepared to deliver severe costs to the Russian economy, including its financial system and sectors deemed critical to the Kremlin and President Putin's ambitions while minimizing unwanted spillover."

But that last part is going to be tricky. A senior administration official told me that the administration is taking contingency planning very, very seriously, including, and this is key, by holding talks with energy companies and other countries.

So, Jim and Bianna, the Biden administration has this very unenviable task of trying to hold Putin accountable without causing inflation to get even worse.

GOLODRYGA: Right.

SCIUTTO: It's a battle, man. It's a chess board and a big one. Matt Egan, thanks so much.

EGAN: Thanks. SCIUTTO: Coming up, I'm going to speak more about this, including

inflation worries, with Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo. She's going to join us live later this hour. You'll want to watch.

But first, President Biden is optimistic that parts, parts at least of his Build Back Better plan can still pass. Does that mean more negotiations with Senators Manchin and Sinema? How about Republicans? We're going to be live at the Capitol.

GOLODRYGA: And we go to one rural Georgia county where critics are finding an effort to consolidate seven voting precincts into just one for nearly 8,000 residents.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REV. DENISE FREEMAN, CIVIL RIGHTS ACTIVIST: I think it's meant to disenfranchise people of color. I think it's meant to disenfranchise the poor. This is about good old boys, their power and their will to stay in control.

(END OF VIDEO CLIP)

GOLODRYGA: Plus, it's one of the most fun reveals at the Winter Olympics opening ceremonies. What are the athletes wearing? We have a first look later in the hour.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[10:18:38]

SCIUTTO: President Biden says he's confident he can pass what he called big chunks of his so far stalled Build Back Better bill, specifically he mentioned lowering prescription drug prices and expanding education funding. In the midst of that he delivered a sharp message to Republicans who stand in his way.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOE BIDEN, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I did not anticipate that there'd be such a stalwart effort to make sure that the most important thing was that President Biden didn't get anything done. Think about this? What are Republicans for? What are they for? Name me one thing they're for.

(END OF VIDEO CLIP)

GOLODRYGA: CNN congressional correspondent Lauren Fox is on Capitol Hill.

And Lauren, where do things stand this morning after we heard those words from the president last night?

LAUREN FOX, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, Bianna, we should remind viewers back home that the people standing in the way of Biden's agenda are really two Democrats right now, both Kyrsten Sinema and Joe Manchin, despite the fact that he's arguing there that Republicans are standing in the way. They could pass Build Back Better with just a simple majority using that special budget process that they have at their disposal.

So far, however, they have been unable to get Senator Manchin on board. You saw yesterday the president indicating that perhaps they could break this bill into smaller pieces, try to pass it that way.

[10:20:01]

There are some provisions that perhaps could garner enough Democratic votes to pass it through that special budget process. One of them, as you mentioned, was prescription drug reform. That was a proposal that was highly negotiated very closely with those moderate Democrats including Senator Kyrsten Sinema, who had problems with the original bill but worked with her colleagues to get to yes on that specific provision.

There's also some discussion about whether or not some climate change provisions could pass despite the fact that Manchin comes from a coal- producing state in West Virginia. He worked very closely with Senator Tom Carper to negotiate some of those provisions. Is that another place where they could go?

So there are areas of agreement for Democrats but things like the expanded child tax credit, those are issues that despite popular with the American public do not have the support from Senator Joe Manchin.

GOLODRYGA: Lauren Fox, thank you so much.

And joining me now to talk about all of this is CNN political analyst Julian Zelizer. He's a historian and professor at Princeton University.

Julian, great to have you on this morning. So let's dig deeper into what Lauren was explaining there because we heard the president say and question what the Republicans stand for and that they have been roadblocks all the way. But the real focus as of late has been on those two Democratic senators, right, Sinema and Manchin.

And here's what the president said. I want to play it for you and we'll talk about it on the other end about how he plans to address them specifically on BBB in the months ahead.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BIDEN: I think the most important thing to do is try to inform, not educate, inform the public of what's at stake in stark terms and let them make judgments and let them know who's for them and who's against them.

(END OF VIDEO CLIP)

GOLODRYGA: So assuming -- there he is talk about these two senators. At this point, what more can he inform them of? It was striking to hear the president say yesterday when addressing inflation that Build Back Better will, in fact, lower inflation in the country. And some economists seem pretty skeptical about that.

JULIAN ZELIZER, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, he's not wrong in that the stronger the case he can make of the specifics that he plans to push through. Don't talk about Build Back Better. Don't talk about the reconciliation package. But talk about item one and item two, what they're going do for voters, what they're going do for voters in West Virginia, and make a case how they're actually anti-inflationary.

The more he can do that, the more of a defensive position he could put Senator Manchin in. It's really his only option at this point in terms of pushing these provisions.

GOLODRYGA: He also addressed voting rights legislation that has stalled as well. And he raised some eyebrows and garnered skepticism when he said that he does believe some elections may be illegitimate because of the obstruction coming from some of these tighter, more restrictive laws that have been passed in several states. And he's getting pushback from that, not only from Republicans but Democrats as well.

I'm curious to get your take on this because of course we've been covering all of the reasons why we may, in fact, see voter restrictions. So was he wrong to address it the way he did?

ZELIZER: Well, one problem is borrowing the language that his predecessor used. And I think there'll be criticism about using that. But being very clear on what voting rights restrictions do and the kind of threats they pose and impose historically is exactly what the president should have been talking about since day one. Similarly, with election subversion efforts taking place to stack local election boards or how politicized secretaries of state.

That's a serious issue and he should be very clear-eyed in talking about it. So I think a more forceful language is important, but it comes very late. A lot of his critics say this should have been what he was doing from day one rather than in year two.

GOLODRYGA: Perhaps they can settle on agreeing on the Electoral Reform Act, right? We are seeing some bipartisan support on that. That could count as a victory, however small, for many people's perspective for the president going into the midterms.

Julian Zelizer, thank you as always. We appreciate it.

ZELIZER: Thank you.

SCIUTTO: Coming up next, we will be live at the White House for today's jobs report. It was disappointing, but the big picture on employment remains positive in this country. We'll speak live with Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo after a short break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[10:29:13]

SCIUTTO: This morning we learned that jobless claims rose for the third straight week. Last week the U.S. economy recorded some 286,000 new jobless claims, up 55,000 from the week before. This as President Biden is voicing his support for the Federal Reserve's efforts to fight inflation.

I'm joined now by U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo.

Secretary, thanks for taking the time this morning.

GINA RAIMONDO, COMMERCE SECRETARY: Good morning.

SCIUTTO: So, first a reaction to these weekly job numbers. I know the overall picture is positive, but this is the third week in a row they've gone up. Is this in the administration's view a short-term response to the Omicron surge?

RAIMONDO: Thank you. As you say, these are, you know, strong numbers. By any measure now we have a strong economy, you know, created over six million jobs last year. We're the only economy in the world that is stronger now than pre-pandemic. And the unemployment rate has fallen like a rock over the past year.