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U.S. Sent a Diplomacy Letter to Russia; European Leaders Agree to Respect Ceasefire in Ukraine; Prime Minister Boris Johnson Push Back on Calls to Resign; Attention-Seeker North Korea Fires its Sixth Ballistic Missile. Aired 3-4a ET
Aired January 27, 2022 - 03:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[03:00:00]
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ROSEMARY CHURCH, CNN ANCHOR (on camera): Hello, and welcome to our viewers joining us from all around the world. I'm Rosemary Church.
Just ahead here on CNN Newsroom, diplomatic talks and letters sent to Russia to try and prevent an invasion of Ukraine. What will Vladimir Putin do now that the ball is in his court.
Boris Johnson grilled by M.P.s but refusing to resign as the official party gate report could be released at any moment.
Plus, Kim Jong-un fires more missiles, his sixth weapons test so far this year.
UNKNOWN: Live from CNN center, this is CNN Newsroom with Rosemary Church.
CHURCH: Good to have you with us.
Well, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken says the ball is in Russia's court, after the U.S. delivered a written response to Russia's concerns with Ukraine. Blinken and NATO agreed there is plenty of room for diplomatic solution to the crisis but Ukraine should be allowed if it wants to join the western alliance.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ANTONY BLINKEN, U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE: We made it clear, there are core principles that we are committed to uphold and defend including Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity and the right of states to choose their own security arrangements and alliances. The document is with them, and the ball is in their court. We'll see
what we do. As I said repeatedly, whether they choose the path of diplomacy and dialogue, whether they decide to renew the aggression against Ukraine. We are prepared either way.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHURCH (on camera): Russia's military buildup on the border with the Ukraine has the U.S. and its allies discussing more troops deployment to Eastern Europe. Sources tells CNN Romania, Bulgaria, and Hungary could each get about 1,000 personnel similar to forward battle groups stationed in the Baltic states and Poland.
Meanwhile, a Ukrainian official says his country is willing to negotiate around the clock to prevent war. Talks with Russia taking place in Paris ended with both sides supporting the idea of an unconditional permanent ceasefire.
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ANDRIY YERMAK, UKRAINIAN NEGOTIATOR (through translator): I think that the main result is that all the Normandy members sustain a sustainable ceasefire which has to be active without any conditions.
DMITRY KOZAK, RUSSIAN NEGOTIATOR (through translator): The ceasefire should be observed unconditionally. And the agreement that was signed on July 22nd 2020, should be executed in word and in spirit by both sides of this agreement.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHURCH (on camera): CNN's international diplomatic editor Nic Robertson is tracking reaction and joins us now live from Moscow. Good to see you, Nic.
So, the world awaits President Putin's response to U.S. and NATO efforts to pursue diplomacy and dialogue in an effort to avert war. When and how will President Putin likely respond?
NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMATIC EDITOR: I don't think it's going to be particularly quickly. We don't know frankly what method he will choose to respond. We will likely hear from his spokesperson later today, that's the normal sort of run of daily events in Moscow. Perhaps we'll get an inkling then.
What we heard from the foreign minister yesterday when he was speaking to the Duma, he said that the foreign ministry which is the department, the government department received that written response, they would take it and then officials would work up some proposals to take to the president. Which is why I'm saying that this might not happen too quickly.
But the indications at the moment are that the Russians intend to keep this, to a degree, confidential. That was certainly the request of Antony Blinken. He, though what we heard from Sergei Lavrov yesterday, again, speaking in the Duma, said that the request from the U.S. have been to keep what was in the document, you know, out of public domain.
That was a request that he said that the Russian government was going to offer, but that would be on balance from what they see in there but they would give the people of Russia an understanding of what it contains. But at the moment, that -- that understanding of what it contains even though it hasn't been released.
I think the real hope here clearly from the U.S. side, clearly from what heard from Jens Stoltenberg at NATO was quite detailed in talking about the different areas where there is opportunities for Russia to realize some of its, you know, desired goals, that there is a big scope of things that can be talked about.
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But I think if you look at the language -- the diplomatic language yesterday as well, coming from NATO. NATO saying, you know, it's prepared to put these additional, perhaps 1,000 troops in Bulgaria, Romania, and Hungary. Well, it was only last week that Russia's foreign ministry said that all foreign troops should be withdrawn from Romania and Bulgaria.
So, you know, Russia is also going to feel that language as well. But that's the intent from NATO, that they are putting in a deterrent and that the way that President Putin is approaching this so far has been the wrong method and it's drawling the wrong results, i.e., more NATO troops where he doesn't want to see them.
So, we are where we were yesterday, we're still waiting, of course, as you say from President Putin to pronounce on this.
CHURCH: Yes, exactly right. Nic Robertson, many thanks joining us live from Moscow.
Well, for more on the peace talks in Paris, let's cross over to CNN's Scott McLean following developments live in London. Good to see you, Scott. So, what's the latest on those diplomatic efforts?
SCOTT MCLEAN, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Hi, Rosemary. Look, you heard from the negotiators there in Paris that there has been some progress, baby steps for sure. But look, this is the first time that the so-called Normandy format, Ukraine and Russia talking mediated by France and Germany. This is the first time since 2019 that that group has come out with a joint statement at the conclusion of talks.
And they say that they want to make sure that the ceasefire in eastern Ukraine is respected, and all the terms at the Minsk agreement are respected as well. That's the agreement that brought a very fragile peace to the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine following fighting in 2014. And many of those issues still remain unsolved.
Now from the French perspective, Elysee Palace is telling CNN that look, one of their goals was simply to test Russia's willingness to engage at all. And while that is certainly a low bar, they are touting this as a success. Now in the meantime, you still have the saber rattling, you still have
the threats of sanctions, and consequences coming from Russia, and also from NATO and from Europe -- European countries as well sort of on the outskirts of these talks. And in Berlin you have the British defense secretary yesterday, another stop on his European tour to try to get NATO allies to be tougher when it comes to sanctions.
And one of the things that continues to be an issue, or perhaps something that not all of Europe is on the same page about, is sending lethal aid to Ukraine. The Germans do not think that that's the best approach. They don't want to further fuel conflict there.
What they have said yesterday is that they are willing to send 5,000 military helmets to Ukraine and also a field hospital and support for that hospital as well. So, Ben Wallace says that look, obviously they disagree on that point, but the British are not sitting here judging the French or judging the Germans either.
Now part of the problem that Europe has more broadly, Rosemary, is that they are heavily reliant on Russia for energy, especially right now. And so, Germany has been under pressure from the U.S. and the U.K. to cancel the Nord Stream 2 Pipeline. That's a twinning of an existing pipeline bringing gas from Russia to Germany, it's been built but hasn't been turned on yet.
The Germans say that they are willing to consider doing that in the event of a Russian incursion, but of course the U.S. and the U.K. would very much like them to be much firmer than that, Rosemary.
CHURCH: Indeed. Scott McLean, joining us live from London. Many thanks.
Retired U.S. General Wesley Clark is a CNN military analyst and former NATO supreme allied commander. He joins me now from Little Rock in Arkansas. Thank you so much for being with us.
WESLEY CLARK, CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Thank you.
CHURCH: So right now, diplomacy, defense, and deterrence are all parts being pursued feverishly amid fears of an imminent invasion of Ukraine by Russia. So now we wait to hear back from President Vladimir Putin after the U.S. delivered a written response to Russia's demand, saying what the U.S. and its allies are willing to make concessions on. So how do you expect the Russian president to respond?
CLARK: Well, I hope that the Russian president is going to accept the Minsk conditions that were discussed in Paris today. And the idea that both sides would implement a complete ceasefire, and Russia would turn back control of the border to Ukraine. I doubt that's going to happen. And if it does, I doubt that it's enough to meet what Mr. Putin is asking for.
So, he is going to have to decide whether he wants to pull the trigger on military action. We hope he doesn't. We think if he comes into Ukraine, he's going to have a very, very tough fight. We think a lot of Russian soldiers will die as a result. [03:09:56]
More than that, we think that Russia will become branded as a rogue state. He will become an international war criminal. And it will harm Russia and Russians for generations. Why would he want to do this?
CHURCH: And general, in that written response to Russia's demands, the U.S. said it's not willing to talk about Ukraine joining NATO, or negotiate on the sovereignty of Ukraine's borders, but it is willing to talk about broader arms control, U.S. missile placement in Europe, U.S. military exercises, and of course a more stable relationship between the two countries. So, would these concessions or could they be enough for Putin to avert going forward and invading Ukraine?
CLARK: Well, Rosemary, one thing clear. They're not concessions. We are not conceding anything of Mr. Putin's demands. What we are offering to Russia is diplomacy. And a discussion of a broader U.S.- strategic Russian relationship. If that's of interest to him, fine. We're happy to talk. If it's about giving Russia a veto over the membership of NATO, absolutely not.
If it's about pulling NATO protection from countries in Eastern Europe who are already members of NATO, absolutely not. If it's about saying that Ukraine could never join NATO? No. So those were three, basically non-negotiable demands from Mr. Putin. And they certainly can't be agreed to by NATO.
CHURCH: So general, what is Putin's likely military end game here? And what's your assessment of U.S. and NATO military strategy so far, sending weapons to Ukraine and putting troops on high alert for possible deployment very soon to Eastern Europe given the State Department says that there is every indication that Russia will use military force against Ukraine by mid-February?
CLARK: Well, there certainly is every indication of that, but you know, Mr. Putin is going to get as much as he can right now. And when he uses military force, I'm sure he's going to try to use it in the most efficient and effective way possible to meet his objectives.
So, the first thing he would like to do is install our Russian loving government in Kyiv by coup, by assassination, by parachuting in, by some false flag operation, by seizing control of the media, by putting a media blackout in and saying that President Zelensky has decided to agree with him that Ukraine would never be in NATO.
There is a myriad of ways that he can obfuscate, confuse and render a coherent defense more difficult. It's not limited into what he could do. The point is, though, that when he gets into contact with the Ukrainians, they've said they'll fight. There is every indication they will fight. And they will fight hard.
Russia couldn't have picked a worse enemy than Ukraine. They know all about Russian tactics. They know the strategies, they speak the language, most of them. They know exactly what could happen and they'll fight very hard for their independence.
CHURCH: And if all of that does happen, general, what is the response or the likely response from the U.S. and NATO?
CLARK: I think you can be sure that the United States is going to -- and NATO are going to take action. Now they've said they are going to put sanctions in, they said that they we're going to reinforce our allies that are on the east in the Baltics, let's say Romania, Bulgaria, maybe Slovakia, maybe Poland.
Sure, those are things that are definitely going to happen. But Russia can't be sure what's really might happen depending on how horrendous their assault is. Depending on the outcry around the world.
Look, this is 2022. Nations don't go back and recreate World War II or worse. And yet that's precisely what Mr. Putin seems to be implying he's going to do. It's a horrendous war crime. To attack a nation after Russia has guaranteed its political independence and written documents in 1994. Then to cross that border. To use military force, or cyber, to try to destroy, to attack a population.
This is against the Geneva convention. These are war crimes. Mr. Putin is going to become an international outlaw criminal. When Mr. Milosevic did it in 1999, he ended up in the Hague.
CHURCH: General Wesley Clark, we thank you for your analysis. I appreciate it.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is rejecting calls for his resignation but he's facing plunging support in the polls and growing distrust from members of the parliament over a series of parties that allegedly violated lockdown rules.
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His future is in question as lawmakers wait for the results of an internal inquiry.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
KEIR STARMER, LEADER, BRITISH LABOUR PARTY: Does the prime minister really not understand the damage his behavior is doing to our country?
BORIS JOHNSON, BRITISH PRIME MINISTER: Mr. Speaker, I hope that the right honorable gentleman understands that although the issue that he raises is important, there is simply no way, as he knows, as a lawyer that I can comment on the investigation that he is currently -- is currently taking place.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHURCH (on camera): Salma Abdelaziz is in London with the latest. She joins us now. Good to see you, Salma. So, Boris Johnson under intense pressure. Rejecting calls for his resignation. What is the latest, and when can we expect that internal inquiry to drop?
SALMA ABDELAZIZ, CNN REPORTER: Rosemary, I know I keep promising you any minute now that report will drop. But a lot of that is because this investigation has grown and grown as the allegations of partying have grown and grown. I know we have that list to show our viewers of allegedly 10 different dates of these or different parties that all took place, apparently inside Downing Street, inside the prime minister's own official residence and offices at a time when there were strict lockdowns in the country.
And as this investigation began, again this investigation is led by a senior civil servant, Sue Gray, there was more of these dates coming out. And that's what was added to her report. So, it took more time to investigate. Again, because of all of these dates.
We heard yesterday the report might be released any moment now. We're hearing today it might be released any moment now. It might not happen until after the weekend. But critically here, you need to remember that, yes, the Sue Gray report is independent in some sense, but Gray's boss is still Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
So, Johnson will get that report first. And he has two key decisions to make, Rosemary. First of all, when to release the report. That's going to be up to the prime minister. And second and most important, how much of the report to release. Because there are some indications that Downing Street might redact part of these reports.
The opposition is concerned that Prime Minister Boris Johnson might only release the summary in these reports. Now the prime minister for his part has said that he will do what he has promised. He essentially evaded the question in parliament, Downing Street says they will release the report unless there are security questions there.
But why, does this matter, why am I going through all this? Because the details in that report are exactly what lawmakers need to look at. It's the timeline that blow by blow of what happened at each of these dates, who knew, and most crucially, how involved, if he was involved, was Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
And it's that information that his own party, the conservative party is going to use to make a very big decision here, Rosemary, which is, does the prime minister continue to stay. Does he continue to get the support of the party, or do they need to take the steps to push him out. Rosemary?
CHURCH: Yes, it is a massive decision. Salma Abdelaziz joining us live. Many thanks.
Well, John Rentoul is the chief political commentator for The Independent, and a visiting professor at King's College. He joins us now from London. Good to have you with us.
JOHN RENTOUL, CHIEF POLITICAL COMMENTATOR, THE INDEPENDENT: Hi, there.
CHURCH: So, Boris Johnson won't go down without a fight. But how can he survive this mounting pressure coming from all directions now?
RENTOUL: Well, he certainly put up a good fight yesterday. And there were enough conservative M.P.s in the chamber in the House of Commons who wanted to believe him, who wanted to cheer him on. Because they are very worried about the turmoil of getting rid of another prime minister leadership campaign.
And they think that Boris Johnson can pull it back. But there are an awful lot of their colleagues, and maybe even some of those who were cheering Boris Johnson yesterday who privately don't think that Boris Johnson can pull it back and are waiting for the Sue Gray report on these lockdown parties, as the moment for decision, when they will decide to start the process of getting rid of -- getting rid of a sitting prime minister which is a pretty big deal.
CHURCH: Yes, a very big deal. But of course, we expect that internal inquiry to drop on Wednesday. It hasn't yet. Is it going -- some people are suggesting it may drop on the weekend? So, what's going to happen here? Are they hoping to just drop it quietly?
RENTOUL: No. They can't drop it. It will have to be published, and it'll have to be published in full. But the question is, lawyers and what do we call, H.R., human resources people, are they (Inaudible) because they don't want individual cases to be -- to be named because that might prejudice the police inquiry that is now about to start.
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So, I think this is a -- this is a technical delay of a few days. It doesn't alter the fundamental position. And it doesn't alter the fundamental choice that faces conservative M.P.s, because this may be their one -- one of best chance of changing leader in prime minister. And they have to decide that in the next -- in the next week or so.
CHURCH: Yes, it just can't keep dragging on. There's a whole lot of bigger issues going on around the world. Of course, Boris Johnson, as we mentioned, rejecting calls for his resignation. But the British people want him out for his brazen hypocrisy, partying it up while the rest of the country complied with his lockdown rules.
Some people missing out on attending family funerals as a result. I mean, this is a serious situation. How will voters respond if the conservative party decide that they can't, from a political perspective, remove him?
RENTOUL: Well, that's the -- that's the big question. And that's what's conservative M.P.s have to decide. Because you are absolutely right. The prime minister who used to be reasonably popular, not quite as popular as the mythology surrounding suggest it, but he used to be popular. And he certainly won that election just two years ago. A remarkable victory and delivered Brexit.
You would've thought that his party would be grateful to him for that, but maybe this is a situation a bit like Winston Churchill's where the people says, well, thank you very much for delivering, in Churchill's case, victory in the war, in Boris Johnson's case, Brexit, thanks very much. Now off you go, we'll have a different kind of leader for the peacetime.
And that -- that is what Boris Johnson is up against. He is extremely unpopular at the moment. And you are absolutely right. It's because people felt that they obeyed all those difficult instructions from the government during the pandemic, and the -- and the government and the prime minister didn't seem to think that the rules apply to them. And that really has annoyed the voting public.
CHURCH: Understandably so. And Boris Johnson's troubles don't end there. A leak to government e-mail suggest he authorized an animal evacuation from Kabul, Afghanistan, last year. He denies that he did that. But he clearly has many enemies within his own party and government. People who want him out. So, presumably these leaks will continue until that happens.
RENTOUL: Exactly. Exactly right, Rosemary. That is the calculation that conservative M.P.s have to make. I mean, this business about prioritizing the dog lift from Kabul over getting human beings out is going to be a problem for him. But it is absolutely difficult of the sorts of problems that are going to beset the government if Boris Johnson remains as prime minister. Because he brings trouble with him, in many senses.
I mean, he's got many skills and positive attributes, but at the moment, he seems to be the generator of bad headlines for the government and for the conservative party. And the conservatives have to decide whether -- whether he is going to be the right person to lead them into the next election.
Now, if he's not the right person to lead them into the next election, they would rather have Rishi Sunak, the chancellor in charge, then I think the argument is quite strong for them to make the change now, rather than suffer further damage in the months and years to come.
CHURCH: We'll see what happens. We are awaiting that internal inquiry. A lot of embarrassed no doubt will come as a result of that. Many thanks to you, John Rentoul, for joining us. I appreciate it.
RENTOUL: My pleasure.
CHURCH: And this just in, we are hearing that a magnitude 6.2 earthquake has struck near Tonga. It happened less than two weeks after an underwater volcano eruption triggered massive tsunami waves. It slammed into Tonga's coastline.
The U.S. Geological Survey says this new earthquake was detected more than 200 kilometers west northwest of Tonga. So far, no word on any damage or casualties.
The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center told CNN that there was no danger of potential hazardous waves nearby.
Well, North Korea has apparently conducted more ballistic missile test. It is the sixth time this month that North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un has defied U.N. prohibitions on such trials. And I'll have a live report for you after the break. Stay with us.
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(COMMERCIAL BREAK) CHURCH (on camera): We are following a developing story out of
Ukraine. The interior ministry it says at least five people have been killed in a town in eastern Ukraine after a National Guard service member opened fire at a manufacturing plant. That service member has now been detained after going on the run. The motive for the shooting is still unknown.
Well, North Korea is again ratcheting up tensions in the Korean peninsula with its second missile test this week. South Korea's military believes two short-range ballistic missiles were fired early Thursday from Hamhung on the east coast and landed in the ocean. It appeared to be the sixth missile test by Pyongyang this month.
And CNN's Will Ripley joins us live from Taiwan. Of course, Will, you've been covering the story for many years. What more are you learning about this latest missile test?
WILL RIPLEY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, the big question is why so many and why now? Why is this, potentially their busiest month for ballistic missile ever. We're still going through the records to see. It certainly is on track to be one of the busiest months ever when you're talking about six weapons tests in just a matter of a few weeks.
The last time we saw a missile testing binge by Kim Jong-un anything close to this was in 2019. So, why is North Korea ramping up its missile testing in 2022 just days before the Beijing Winter Olympics hosted by its neighbor, its patron, its economic benefactor, China?
Well, it might be because they actually want the world to talk about North Korea, because they feel like they've been off the radar a little bit. We've seen North Korea's focus has been on the COVID-19 pandemic. But now they're trying to send a message out to the world to demonstrate the full spectrum of their weapons capabilities.
And when you look at what they're testing, it's a combination of new weapons, and weapons that they've tested considerably before. So, some of these tests might be for scientific purposes, others for propaganda. But two ballistic missiles today. Two days ago, it was cruise missiles. Then on the 17th last week it was ballistic missiles. On the 14th it was ballistic missile launch from a train to mix things up.
And on the fifth and 11th of this month, hypersonic missiles, the missiles that travel 10 times or more the speed of sound and have glide vehicles that can actually cause the warheads to make an unexpected turn, making them extremely difficult for United States missile defense systems to shoot down. Experts say those hypersonic should be a cause for people around the world to be concerned here.
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DUYEON KIM, ADJUNCT SENIOR FELLOW, CENTER FOR A NEW AMERICAN SECURITY: North Korea is aiming for the types of weapons that can evade U.S. missile defenses. Make it harder for the United States to detect to try to target and to try to hit if it wanted to. MELISSA HANHAM, SENIOR RESEARCH ASSOCIATE, STANFORD UNIVERSITY CENTER
FOR INTERNATIONAL SECURITY AND COOPERATION: North Korea has been making really powerful threats for decades after decades. But they are now reaching a technical capability where they can make some of those threats real.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
RIPLEY (on camera): International law does bar North Korea from testing ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons. We haven't seen a North Korean nuclear weapons test since 2017. Part of a self-imposed in what North Korea calls -- temporary suspension of such activity. The suspension that, Rosemary, Kim Jong-un has now signaled he's considering lifting that moratorium.
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Which means that as we get into the Olympics, a lot of people are going to be wondering perhaps a bit tensely, what is Kim going to do with anything during those games. Is he going to be so bold to try to get the entire world talking about North Korea, by doing something highly provocative during the Beijing 2022 Olympics. And of course, the big unknown question, how will China respond at all? So far, they've said pretty quiet about all of these tests. Rosemary.
ROSEMARY CHURCH, CNN ANCHOR (on camera): Yeah, and we'll see what that he dares to do.
Will Ripley joining us live there, many thanks.
Coming up, the U.S. says, Russia's surge of troops to Belarus is deeply concerning. One Belarusian opposition leader shares that view. We will hear from her next.
Plus, some consider it a powerful way to punish Russia if it invades Ukraine. Experts said it would deal a painful blow to the Russian economy. Russia says it would backfire on the West. And we will explain SWIFT when we come back.
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CHURCH: America's top diplomat says he expects a talk with Russia's foreign minister in the coming days, after the U.S. delivered a written response to Moscow's concerns about Ukraine.
U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken says the response lays out a serious diplomatic path forward if Russia chooses it. Now this comes as tens of thousands of Russian troops remained massed near Ukraine's border, heightening tensions over a possible invasion.
Meantime, in Paris, Russia and Ukraine sat down for talks with negotiators agreeing that a permanent cease-fire must be unconditional. The Ukrainian official says, his country is willing to negotiate around the clock to prevent war.
Russia' defense ministry says it sent a number of SU35 fighter jets to Belarus. Ahead of military drill scheduled for next month. But the U.S. has deep concerns about that increase in troops. A feeling shared by a noted Belarusian opposition leader.
CNN's Frederick Pleitgen reports.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
FREDERIK PLEITGEN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice over): Russia's army is increasingly encircling Ukraine. Vladimir Putin's troops now also pouring into neighboring Belarus, allegedly for military exercises. All with the help of Putin's friend Belarusian strongman Alexander Lukashenko. Lukashenko falsely claiming the exercises near Ukraine's border are only in reaction to Ukrainian moves.
ALEXANDER LUKASHENKO, BELARUSIAN PRESIDENT (through translator): We were not the first ones to stop paying attention to our southern border. Ukrainians began to gather troops there. I don't understand why.
[03:35:03]
PLEITGEN: Svetlana Tikhanovskaya has heard the lies all too many times. From her exile in Lithuania, she has been leading the opposition against Lukashenko. And speaking exclusively with CNN, says the U.S. and its allies must act decisively.
SVETLANA TIKHANOVSKAYA, BELARUSIAN OPPOSITION LEADER: What going on the territorial bills with all these military drills, is very concerning. And in a sense we are watching this very attentively. And we understand that this regime now in very weak position and maybe they could like, allow use Belarusian territory for Kremlin's aims.
PLEITGEN: She had Lukashenko on the ropes in 2020, a housewife and mother, she took the reins after her own husband, a politician (Inaudible) was jailed by Lukashenko. According to the U.S. and its allies, Tikhanovskaya beat Lukashenko in the presidential election, but he rig the election.
What followed were peaceful protests against Lukashenko, and then a brutal crackdown that jailed or exiled most of the opposition, including Tikhanovskaya. Lukashenko managed to stay in power mostly thanks to Vladimir Putin, she says. Effectively making him Putin stooge and putting Belarus' army at the Russian president's disposal.
TIKHANOVSKAYA: We don't know what steps we can do to keep his power, not to look like a loser in this situation. But he also understands that his days are over. And he just prolonging all these political games, and (inaudible) to Russia.
PLEITGEN: While Tikhanovskaya continues to fight for change in Belarus, she remains devoted to her family, openly admitting she is sometimes afraid. Especially since her husband was recently sentenced to 18 years in jail after a trial the U.S. and the E.U. called a sham.
TIKHANOVSKAYA: I'm scared every day. Scared for people in Belarus. Scared for my own family, but just -- you have no choice. You have to go forward knowing that we are, you know, strong nation.
PLEITGEN: While Lukashenko has become an international pariah after essentially hijacking an E.U. flag plane to arrest an opposition blogger and unleashing a migrant crisis on the E.U.'s doorstep this past fall, he does remain in business.
Not just thanks to Russia, but also China, as Xi Jinping recently called for deeper economic ties despite U.S. and E.U. sanctions. But Tikhanovskaya believes allowing a massive Russian force into the country will further discredit Lukashenko.
TIKHANOVSKAYA: This is like invisible resistance but it is going on every day. So I'm sure that I will go back to Belarus the same as hundreds, thousands of other Belarusians and our political prisoners.
PLEITGEN: And the U.S. clearly also sees the threat that Russia could use Belarus as a possible launching pad for an invasion of Ukraine. The State Department spokesman saying that Lukashenko would face, quote, s swift and decisive response from the U.S. if that were to happen.
Fred Pleitgen, CNN, Berlin.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
CHURCH: But one of the biggest deterrence against a Russia invasion may not be a military weapon at all. It's called SWIFT, which is a secure network that financial institutions used to move money around the world. U.S. lawmakers and others have suggested cutting Russia out of the system and making it nearly impossible for global financial institution to send money in and out of the country. The move could be a punch in the gut for the Russian economy including oil and natural gas companies. But Moscow is warning it could backfire.
So for more on all of this. Anna Stewart joins us now live from London. Good morning to you, Anna. So using SWIFT against the Russian president may seem like a good idea on the surface. But Putin is vowing to strike back. So how is this likely to work if they decide to pursue this idea?
ANNA STEWART, CNN PRODUCER (on camera): Yes. SWIFT would be a really damaging tool. This is on the (inaudible) financial transactions right around the world. It was founded in 1973. It's used by 11,000 financial institutions across 200 countries. Now, cutting Russia off for SWIFT would have devastating consequences, frankly for its economy.
For instance, it will trigger (inaudible) blows from any firm in Russian that relies on foreign financing. It will also probably results in high levels of currency volatility. And actually in 2014, the former finance minister of Russia said that this measure would cause the economy to shrink by 5 percent.
And actually, Russia has been worrying about this measure since 2014 when it illegally annexed Crimea. And it has as you put some contingency planning in places. Come up with its own version of SWIFT with SPFS, so has China actually. But the problem with that is domestic banks may use it, but the whole point if SWIFT is an international. It has standardized and trusted status across from financial networks.
[03:40:09]
So, it doesn't really come up as a viable option. The problem thought, Rosemary, as you mentioned that using SWIFT has some challenges. First of all, would SWIFT even agree, because that is a (inaudible) based in Belgium. It consider the self-neutral, it's run by over 25 bank members in different countries around the world.
Now the U.S. effectively could pressure into action, and as president for that, it didn't (inaudible) in 2012, as well it cut off from SWIFT (inaudible), its nuclear program with devastating consequences.
Brings me onto the second point. Financial contagion. Because you know, that Russia isn't Iran. Russia is a massive economy with huge power and massive interconnectivity with financial markets. For instance, Europe is a huge foreign investor in Russia. The biggest in fact investor -- it's investment since 2019 were valued at some $350 billion. So there could be contagion there.
Thirdly, and possibly the biggest one, retaliation. And particularly what we are looking at energy. Russia holds so much power when it comes to gas, but also oil. The E.U. relies on Russia for over 40 percent of its gas imports. Right now gas supplies around the world are tight. Gas prices are high and it is the middle of winter.
So this is why SWIFT is an option on the table potentially, but we don't know whether it's one that we'll be agreed on. The German Foreign Minister recently speaking to a German newspaper, described this sort of measure as the biggest stick but not necessarily the sharpest sword. Rosemary?
CHURCH: Indeed. And the consequences would be immense. Anna Stewart, joining us live from London many thanks.
Well, still to come, Prince Andrew is denying the allegations and wants a jury to decide his fate in the sexual abuse lawsuit. What his accuser has to say about the move. That's still to come. Stay with us.
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CHURCH: Welcome back everyone. Well, Prince Andrew's legal team is demanding a jury trial in the sex abuse lawsuit brought against him by Virginia Giuffre. She claims she was trafficked by Jeffrey Epstein, as a minor, and forced to have sex with his friends, including the prince. Who has repeatedly denied the allegations, making it formal in the filing on Wednesday.
CNN's Max Foster joins me now live from Dubai. Good to see you, Max. So what is the latest on this, and where is it all going?
MAX FOSTER, CNN ROYAL CORRESPONDENT (on camera): Well, it's interesting this, pushed for a jury trial. Because Giuffre's team had already pushed for that. So, it seems an odd request, because she's more likely to have a granted than him. But it does show the determination that Prince Andrew has in fighting this trial, and going to a full jury trial.
So, he's fighting every single point. So this latest document shows dozens of points that Giuffre has laid against him. And he's denying each one categorically.
[03:45:05]
Where he can't deny them, he uses this phrase, they lack sufficient information to admit or deny allegations. And one of those examples is the photo, the very famous photo, where we see Prince Andrew with his arm around Giuffre with Maxwell in the background. And he saying, he can't admit or deny that allegation this isn't sufficient information, basically casting doubt on whether or not that is an authentic photo.
But the more -- the broader point is that Prince Andrew, in a statement, denies that he was coconspirator of Epstein, or that Epstein trafficked girls to him. So, it's fighting talk really, Rosemary, in this document. And it does seem as though he is willing to fight it, although they haven't written off the idea of an after court settlement either.
CHURCH: Alright. Max Foster joining us live from Dubai. Many thanks.
Corporate sponsors usually try to make a big splash at the Olympic Games, but with a flurry of diplomatic boycotts over China's human rights record, many big sponsors are taking a more low-key approach. Those details just ahead.
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CHURCH: The World Health Organization is reporting the highest number of new COVID-19 cases, since the pandemic began. A record 21 million infections were recorded around the world this past week. The U.S. reported the most new cases, followed by France, India and Italy. But the global pace of new infections is slowing, and some regions are seeing cases trending down.
As a result, several European countries are easing coronavirus restrictions. Starting today, England has lifted all measures under its plan b COVID rules, and returned to plan a. That means, people are no longer advised to work from home, masks are not mandatory indoors, and businesses can decide if they want to require COVID passes.
Denmark will lift all of its COVID-19 rules on February 1st, the nation's Prime Minister says the virus is no longer a socially critical sickness. Danish officials say the country has high levels of immunity, due to high vaccination rates and previous infections.
Austria says, it will end its lockdown for all unvaccinated people, as hospitalizations there continue to stabilize. And that goes into effect on Monday.
Meanwhile, German lawmakers are debating whether or not to make vaccines mandatory, as cases reach record highs. About 75 percent of the population has received at least one dose.
Well, the Winter Olympics in Beijing kick off one week from Friday. And big corporate sponsors has spent billions on promotions and events, but after several governments around the world joined a diplomatic boycott of the games over China's alleged mistreatment of minority groups, many sponsors are treading lightly.
CNN's Selina Wang reports from Tokyo.
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SELINA WANG, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice over): Beijing is gearing up for the bigger show on earth, with a lead up for sponsors at the Winter Olympics has been quiet. Foreign brands are caught in the middle of diplomatic boycotts from outside China, in fear of retaliation by the Chinese government and consumers.
[03:50:08]
DIPANJAN CHATTERJEE, VICE PRESIDENT AND PRINCIPAL ANALYST, FORRESTER: Whereas you would expect brands to sort of beat their chests and come out strong, instead what you found is that there've been retreated into their shelves.
WANG: Some of the largest Olympic sponsors, like Airbnb, Coca-Cola, Intel, Procter And Gamble, and visa have collectively spent billions to be a part of what's normally a marketing bonanza.
MARK DIMASSIMO, FOUNDER, D'MASSIMO GOLDSTEIN: They are being much more pragmatic advertisers. Sticking with their evergreen themes. No one wants to be seen as a sponsor of human rights abuses.
WANG: The muted global campaigns have focused on athletes with little mention of Beijing.
CHATTERJEE: They have paid top dollar to be associated with this incredible equity of the Olympics. And now they find themselves having to backtrack.
WANG: While it's all quiet outside China, inside China, the sponsors are seizing the Olympic opportunity. Over Christmas, Coca-Cola had an online campaign to send free Olympic memorabilia to Chinese consumers, showing off an interactive exhibition at the (inaudible) train station. These creating an emotional video 100 days before the games. Procter & Gamble unveiling a beauty salon for athletes in the Olympic village.
But there's growing pressure from Washington and rights group on this giant corporations to take a stand on Chinese human rights record. The Biden administration and other U.S. allies will not send government officials to the Winter Olympics as a statement to the allegations and genocide in China's Xinjiang region. Allegations that China strongly denies.
The industry analysts say the priority of many Olympic sponsors for these games is to keep and grow their market share in China. Because retaliation can be swift and painful. CNN has reached out to all of the top Olympic sponsors, most had either declined to comment, or not responded.
France based Atos said, "We fully abide by the IOC strategy on human rights in addition to our own ethnics and compliance program."
Switzerland-based Omega, and Germany based Allianz said their focus is on the athletes. Allianz adding, "We consider dialogue with civil society organizations to be very important and regularly exchange in our NGO dialogue on socio political issues."
RICK BURTON, PROFESSOR OF SPORT MANAGEMENT, SYRACUSE UNIVERSITY (voice over): They're all very cautious right now, to not do something that could be perceived as insulting the Chinese government, or the Chinese people.
WANG: And last year, Nike, H&M, and other Western brands faced a boycott in China because of a stand they took against the alleged use of force labor in Xinjiang. Then in 2019, comments made by then Houston Rockets G.M. in support of Hong Kong pro-democracy protest almost ended a multibillion dollar deal between the NBA and China. So, for these Olympics, sponsors are likely to play it safe.
Selina Wang, CNN, Tokyo.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
CHURCH: Rick Burton is a professor of sports management at Syracuse University and he joins me now from New York. Thank you so much for being with us.
BURTON (on camera): Great to be with you, Rosemary.
CHURCH: So, how much of a quandary would sponsors for the Beijing Winter Olympics be in right now, as the U.S. highlights human rights issues, in Xinjiang and elsewhere? And, even has a U.S. diplomatic boycott in place.
BURTON: You know, I think there's two truths. There are in a heck of a quandary, because this is not what they had would have wanted when they signed up for the Olympics many years ago. They never expected Tokyo to be postponed by a year.
They would've hope to have, although they knew it was coming to Olympics in Asia, which was going to be a real time zone challenge for North American sponsors. But they're also in a quandary because of how many people are really talking about human rights issues in China.
CHURCH: And what talks would be underway, right now, at the offices of Olympic sponsors, like Coca-Cola, Visa and P&G, because we haven't seen the usual advertising blitz with just days to go before the start of the Beijing Games?
BURTON: Well, there's not much they can do. I honestly believe they are hanging on. They're just trying to get through these games. They may be activating in China, which would make a lot of sense, it's the world's largest economy, in the world's largest population. But they may be taking a much more reserved hand, or playing a much more reserved hand in North America.
I can't speak to what they're doing in Europe, but the Olympics are such a great sporting event, one of the world's, you know, biggest mega event, that it's hard to imagine the sponsors not trying to do everything they can to get a full return on their objectives.
CHURCH: So, what are the risks versus the rewards for businesses investing in the Beijing Winter Games, or any Olympics, given the multitude of human rights issues in China, of course, and the draconian COVID testing in restrictions in the country right now?
[03:55:07]
BURTON: Well, it's probably gone past the risk stage. And really what you're dealing with right now is can you make your money back? In other words, they spend billions to be involved and one of their questions is whether or not they're going to see the return on investment that they hoped for.
Brands like Coca-Cola, that have been with the Olympics since the 1920s, know that there will always going to be challenges associated with any Olympic games. And it doesn't matter where they are held, there's almost certainly going to be a (inaudible) that someone is bothered by a human rights issue, or a pollution.
When I was involved with the Beijing Olympics in 2008, there was concern about China's activities in Tibet. And so, the Olympics go on, you know, every two years, usually, and we just usually have a different challenge for the Olympic sponsors each time around.
CHURCH: So how much pressure would these Olympic sponsors be feeling right now?
BURTON: Well, there's two kinds of pressure. Whether there's public pressure, either from the media or from their consumers. And then there is the pressure from the street, or from their board of directors, which is whether or not they are hitting their numbers, right.
Whether their stock prices is behaving the way they want it to, and whether their profitability is where they want it. Those are two different pressures, I think they're hoping to hang on get through the media coverage or scrutiny, and maybe some consumer backlash. But, really what they're probably looking at is the bottom line.
CHURCH: Rick Burton, thank you so much for talking with us. I appreciate it.
BURTON: Thank you, Rosemary.
CHURCH: Well, fans of the Kansas City Chiefs felt mighty generous after their team won big against the Buffalo Bills, Sunday night. A children's hospital in Buffalo, New York, says it's received $13 donations from thousands of Kansas City supporters. As of Wednesday, the total had reached more than $250,000, the $13 donation comes from the 13-scond drive, the Chiefs made to send Sunday's game into overtime. The Chiefs won the game and play in the AFC championship this weekend. Well done.
And thanks so much for your company, I'm Rosemary Church. Enjoy the rest of your day, "CNN Newsroom" continues now with Isa Soares.
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