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Macron, Putin Meet as U.S. Warns Russia Could Invade Ukraine Any day; Russia Invasion of Ukraine Could Cost Tens of Thousands of Lives. Aired 10-10:30a ET

Aired February 07, 2022 - 10:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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BIANNA GOLODRYGA, CNN HOST: This, as the U.S. had intercepted communications between Russian officials. We'll have much more on what they tell us in just a moment. Plus, major meetings around the globe as tensions surrounding Ukraine remain high. Russian President Vladimir Putin meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron as President Biden is set to host German Chancellor Olaf Scholz today.

JIM SCIUTTO, CNN HOST: While we're learning that Russia is close to having sufficient equipment and troops in place for a full scale invasion, experts are warning the civilian cost of war in Ukraine could be dire. Some estimates suggest tens of thousands of Ukrainian civilians could die. Many more potentially become refugees.

Let's begin this morning with CNN Reporter Katie Bo Lillis. Katie Bo, what sources have been telling you, myself and Natasha is that these intercepted communications show Russians themselves deployed part of this deployment have doubts about whether this would be as easy perhaps as Putin imagines here? What are the details?

KATIE BO LILLIS, CNN REPORTER: Yes. So, what we have learned, obviously, Jim, is that, that these intercepted communications that the United States has obtained shows Russian military and intelligence officials essentially raising concerns that Putin might have bitten off a little bit more than he can chew here, raising concerns that a full scale invasion of Ukraine further to the military action that Russia already took in the east of Ukraine and in and in Crimea in 2014 might be more difficult and more costly than these officials believe that, that the Kremlin has really taken into account.

Now, it's important to understand that there are lots of different ways to understand this intelligence. And certainly, sources have told us that there's no indication that there is widespread objection, or opposition to Putin's planning within his own military, certainly not of the kind that might press us some kind of, some kind of mutiny, this might just be the kind of grumbling that you hear from soldiers in the field of any military in any conflict, anywhere in the world.

But it does certainly show that some military officials and some intelligence officials involved in the planning and carrying out of this potential operation are concerned, are raising some doubts. Part of the challenge here for U.S. officials is that they have said both publicly and privately that they still don't really know whether or not Putin has made up his mind about launching an additional military action against Ukraine and if so, what that military action would look like.

The United States has a pretty good picture into the Russian military, into the Foreign Ministry, but it's got a very limited window into Putin's inner circle, into Putin's decision making himself into the highest reaches of the Kremlin.

So, what the United States does know is that it believes that Russia hasn't placed the majority of what it would need in order to carry out an invasion, if Putin decides to do so. U.S. officials told CNN over the weekend that they believe Putin has in place 70 percent of both the material and the personnel that he would need to carry out a full scale invasion. And certainly, they say there are indications that he may choose to move on Kyiv. And if so, the city could fall within 48 hours.

But bottom-line here, Jim, the United States still doesn't have what is considered to be really the holy grail of intelligence, which is an understanding of Putin's intent.

GOLODRYGA: And Katie Bo and Jim, this speaks to your reporting and raises the dangerous situation and question and concern, quite frankly that many have that Putin may not be told the full truth and extent the consequences and costs of a full scale invasion as well, like many authoritarians, perhaps those around him that's shrinking inner circle, maybe too frightened to tell him any bad news or news that he doesn't want to hear.

But Katie Bo, this also follows this pattern that we've seen from the West, the United States and the UK specifically about making a lot of this intelligence public, it seems to be a different tactic that they're using now, why?

LILLIS: Yes, absolutely. Look, that's been one of the most sort of extraordinary elements of watching this standoff as the United States and the UK have made an extraordinary amount of the intelligence that they've gathered about Russian planning, particularly when it comes to potential false flag operations that might be used as a pretext for an invasion and that is really a new thing and an unusual tactic that might be used both to disrupt Russian planning or really to blunt the impact of that kind of false flag operation, if Russia were to choose to use it.

SCIUTTO: Yes, answer, psy ops with psy ops. Katie Bo Lillis, thanks very much.

LILLIS: Thanks so much. SCIUTTO: Now for more on the major meeting today, just a few hours, in fact, between President Biden and the German Chancellor, CNN's John Harwood joins us now from the White House. Goal throughout has been showing NATO solidarity in the face of Ukraine, I think you could rightfully say, in degrees, right, because some of the NATO partners have been more forward leaning than others. What does Biden hope to accomplish with Germany today?

JOHN HARWOOD, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, both Biden and Olaf Scholz hope to demonstrate that solidarity of the Western alliance. But as you say, everyone's playing a different role. Emmanuel Macron is in Moscow, meeting with Putin. He's been a very energetic interlocutor trying to work diplomatic angle, see if there is a way to provide that off ramp that the U.S. is also interested in to provide some security assurances

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to Russia without promising that NATO will not ultimately admit Ukraine. President Biden has been very stark in warning what the United States believes that Russia may be about to do and what the consequences would be, if Russia takes that step to invade Ukraine.

Olaf Scholz has kept a very low profile. Obviously, it's his backyard. That is Germany's backyard. They're going to - the entire West is going to pay an economic cost if in fact, huge economic sanctions are put on Russia. It's going to reverberate. So, the West is going to have to absorb that if they take that step. And Germany may absorb it more than the United States. So, part of this is about showing that both sides are willing to meet the other and stand up in tandem against Vladimir Putin.

There have been differences on this Nord Stream pipeline. The United States says that pipeline will stop, will not be completed if Russia crosses the border. Olaf Scholz has been a little bit more ambiguous about it saying well, we will stand with the United States. There'll be consequences, but not spelling that out specifically. You know, those two leaders are going to be asked about that issue at their news conference this afternoon after they meet in the Oval Office.

GOLODRYGA: Yes, Scholz is a new face of Germany for the world to see after 16 years of Angela Merkel there as Chancellor. John Harwood, thank you. And don't miss the CNN exclusive German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will be sitting down with CNN's Jake Tapper. That is only on CNN at 4 PM today.

SCIUTTO: Joining me now to discuss Russia's threat to Ukraine, Britain's Minister of State for Middle East, North Africa. Minister James Cleverly, thanks so much for taking the time this morning.

JAMES CLEVERLY, BRITISH MINISTER OF STATE FOR MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA AND NORTH AMERICA: Jim, good morning.

SCIUTTO: There has been broad unity among NATO allies in terms of warning Russia away from renewed military action, where there has been disunity, and even frankly, between NATO allies and Ukraine itself is on how severe the threat is, just how imminent is. Is Russia likely to invade? I wonder where does the UK stand on this? Is an invasion likely possible? How concerned?

CLEVERLY: Well, it's not really possible for us to understand fully, Vladimir Putin's intentions. So, what we have done is we have worked in close coordination with our European allies, our NATO allies. And that's the reason I'm here in Washington today, to make sure that our collective response sends a very, very strong signal that if Russia were to further encroach on Ukrainian territory, there would be serious consequences for them, economic consequences. And as that intelligence report suggests, any conflict would be protracted, it would be painful, it would be sadly bloody, and it would be a genuine mistake for Russia to pursue this as a course of action.

SCIUTTO: As you know, the French president Emmanuel Macron is holding his own conversations with Russia. There has been an enormous effort to keep NATO allies on the same page, even when there have been disagreements about how far to go, how much military support to give. And the degree, frankly, of economic sanctions, I wonder, is Macron splitting the alliance here by attempting to deal singly with Putin as opposed to as a group, as an alliance together?

CLEVERLY: Well, Boris Johnson, the UK Prime Minister has spoken with Vladimir Putin recently. President Macron is speaking with him. I know the U.S. have been speaking with the Russians as well. So, we are all playing our part. But ultimately, the message that we're putting forward and you made reference earlier to that release of information is that we are trying to make sure that Vladimir Putin understands. And look, and if his officials don't have the courage to tell him the truth, we're telling him the truth, that an incursion to Ukraine would be a huge strategic mistake, would come at severe economic costs, to Russia, and that the NATO allies, European and North American allies will stand shoulder-to-shoulder to sovereignty of this nation.

SCIUTTO: The difference with Macron of course, and you know this in his public comments, as he has said before that, hey, we can't rely on the U.S. to the degree we used to before. So, this is not the first time he freelance, has freelance. I just wonder and by the way, you said some friendlier things about Russia than other NATO leaders have. What evidence have you seen, has the UK seen that Putin is at all interested in this diplomatic off ramp that everybody keeps talking about?

CLEVERLY: Well, I've been at meetings, foreign minister level meetings with the U.S., France, Germany and representing the UK. I know there have been a number of other phone calls and face-to-face meeting where collectively we have agreed that we need to dissuade Russia

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from this course of action. We have always said, we will take Russia's concerns seriously. That's not to say that we agree with those concerns or that we feel they're legitimate. But we are both willing to engage. Diplomacy has got to be the way we get through this. And so, we have, of course, welcome diplomacy, but we have and will continue to make a very, very clear message to Putin, and as I said, and it bears repeating that an invasion into Ukraine would be a huge strategic mistake, and that is the collective message being sent by France, Germany, the UK, U.S. and other NATO allies.

SCIUTTO: Prime Minister Boris Johnson, of course involved in this crisis while he faces his own domestic political crisis at home, including departures from his own Conservative Party. Does that undermine Britain's response to this to have a leader who is potentially compromised at home?

CLEVERLY: Well, the Prime Minister has been completely focused on this. He has - as I said, he's spoken with Vladimir Putin recently. He, foreign secretary, myself and others engage regularly with our NATO, European and North American friends and allies. We are very clear and very determined to prevent further territorial incursions by Russia into Ukraine and I know the prime minister is very much focused on that.

SCIUTTO: Prime Minister James Cleverly, thanks so much for joining the program this morning.

GOLODRYGA: Well, this morning, another example of the Trump administration's cavalier approach to handling presidential records. The Washington Post reporting that members of the National Archives had to go down to Mar-a-Lago last month to recover some of the former president's White House documents after Trump improperly removed multiple boxes from the White House. CNN Law Enforcement Correspondent Whitney Wild is tracking the latest developments. So, Whitney, would this be in violation of the Presidential Records Act?

WHITNEY WILD, CNN LAW ENFORCEMENT CORRESPONDENT: Well, that is the biggest question right now. Was this just sloppy or was it sinister? And we know that it's going to be really difficult for people in Trump's camp to try to make the argument that they simply didn't know because as we and others have reported for months, there are many examples of attorneys telling people within the Trump administration, you must keep these documents per the Presidential Records Act. T

The Washington Post is reporting that these national archivists went down to Mar-a-Lago to retrieve records that Trump apparently took with him down to his resort that would include Bianna, letters between him and world leaders like Kim Jong-un, pretty hard to argue that that would not be considered a Presidential Record when you consider that the law specifically says that these records should also contain letters.

So, the Presidential Records Act lays out examples and memos, letters, notes, those are all supposed to be handed over once an administration concludes. Now the question is, what did those records show? Does this raise a national security concern and what impact these records would have on the House Select Committee's investigation into what led up to the January 6th riot?

So, a list of questions at this point, Bianna. We simply don't know what prompted the archives to go down there and retrieve these? How they knew about it? But it is another example of people within the Trump administration sidestepping their obligations under the National, again, the Presidential Records Act.

And Bianna, I have to remind you, it was last week that CNN reported that the House Select Committee had retreat and National Archives had received documents that were put back together with tape, because they were shredded up during the Trump administration. So, another example of the ways in which the Trump administration sidestepped a very real legal obligation.

GOLODRYGA: Yes, there is a repeat history of patterns. And as we know, this isn't just a civilian who has collected mementos, right. This was the President of the United States. These are valuable documents. Whitney Wild, thank you.

And still to come 17 Georgia state senators have proposed a new bill that would end all childhood vaccination requirements. You heard me, all of them. Could the move put more lives at risk? Plus, a Navy SEAL candidate dies after hell week training, the events that led up to his death and how another candidate ended up in the hospital.

SCIUTTO: Later, CNN then takes a look at what is being done to clean up a massive growing junk yard currently orbiting the Earth. There is a lot more up there than you might have known. Details coming up.

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GOLODRYGA: 17 states senators in Georgia have raised an eye raising proposal. A new bill on vaccines. The Republican sponsored proposal would ban the state from mandating vaccine passports. But it's written so broadly that legal experts say it could also end requirements for any childhood vaccine in Georgia's public schools.

Joining me now from Atlanta is Dr. Carlos del Rio, Executive Associate Dean of Emory University School of Medicine at Grady Health System. Doctor, always great to have you on. So, I just want to get you to respond to this proposal. Perhaps they had not thought it out as clearly as to how broad this could be. But therein lies danger as well, right. I mean there is a reason that children today don't worry about polio or rubella. What is your response when you hear headlines like this?

DR. CARLOS DEL RIO, EXECUTION ASSOCIATE DEAN, EMORY UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF MEDICINE AT GRADY: Well, you know, many people

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don't think vaccines are necessary because they haven't seen the diseases that vaccines are preventing. But I remind people that, we aren't, as you just said, we don't have polio in our country, we rarely see measles because we have vaccination requirements. And a lot of those vaccination requirements for children actually are linked to school requirements. So, it's really important that that linkage continues. And school requirements for vaccinations have allowed us to really deal with pretty much many of the childhood diseases. So, any bill that will ban vaccinations of children's entering school, I think it's bad for public health. I think it's bad for our children. And it's something that hopefully will be corrected and will be amended.

GOLODRYGA: How is that correctable? How can it be amended? I mean, I'm looking at a Kaiser Family Foundation poll that found 30 percent of parents of children under five say that they'll get their children vaccinated right away, if approved. I mean, that's a relatively low number there. We have been dealing with this vaccine for a few months as far as being available to younger children, what more can be done to get more parents on board?

RIO: Well, you're talking now about the COVID vaccine. There has been unfortunately a lot of misinformation and a lot of controversial information not well explained to parents about what the benefits of vaccination is. I personally think that kids benefit from vaccination. It's very clear the data have the ACI team meeting on Friday, data was presented showing very clearly that the benefits of vaccinating kids far outweigh the risks. And even one of the real but rare risks for a child is actually myocarditis.

But there is data from Canada and from other countries, that by spacing the time of vaccines, you can actually significantly decrease the risk of myocarditis. And not only that, you can actually increase the level of immunity to the vaccine. So, one of the things the ACIP likely will be considering is in kids, five to 12, could you - vaccine instead of especially for men go from instead of 21 days for the Pfizer vaccine to eight weeks, and by doing so, still keep the efficacy of the vaccine and decrease the risk of myocarditis that a lot of parents are worried about. My recommendation to parents has been vaccinate their kids, is really the right thing to do.

GOLODRYGA: What about mask mandates? Now, we have seen more states, New Jersey, Delaware just today, these are states with Democratic governors that are saying that they are going to soon be lifting their mask mandates and many school districts are now going to be applying this as well and talking about it. Is now the time in your opinion from a medical perspective. Is it safe for many school districts across the country to lift mask mandates?

RIO: Well, you know, there are two things that we know. We know how this virus is transmitted. We also know that things we can do in masks are not the only thing that we need to deal with. And in fact, with as you said vaccination for kids are available, adults are vaccinated and highly vaccinated community as the cases are decreasing right now with Omicron. In a couple of weeks, maybe removing the mask is actually the right thing to do. It allows us the opportunity to actually peel off one of those restrictions that have been so controversial and things we can do in schools, we can improve ventilation, we can do so many other things that are necessary.

So, in my mind, yes, it may be the right thing to do at this point. We need to look community-by-community to see what the numbers are like. I think we need to track hospitalizations but hospitalizations are clearly coming down and positivity rate too is coming down to that community. It is the right thing to do.

GOLODRYGA: Listen, two good headlines. I'm happy to end this conversation on that we're seeing the spread go down and hospitalizations go down as well. I'm sure that's welcome news for you and your colleagues as well, Dr. Carlos Del Rio, we always appreciate your expertise. Thank you for coming on.

SCIUTTO: Yes, pandemic relief there. Ahead, disruptions to the supply chain around the world are now in this country leading to surging mortgage rates, or at least helping to the reality there just aren't enough homes to meet demand. We're going to have a live report, next.

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GOLODRYGA: Democratic Senator Joe Manchin and Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski aren't letting party lines get in the way of reforming the Electoral Count Act. During a rare bipartisan interview on CNN, Manchin went so far as to say it will absolutely pass.

SCIUTTO: They also interestingly endorsed each other for reelection.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOE MANCHIN (D-WV): I'm endorsing my dear friend, Lisa Murkowski. Alaska could only be so lucky to have her continue to serve them.

SEN. LISA MURKOWSKI (R-AK): Thank you.

MANCHIN: She knows I feel that way too very strongly.

MURKOWSKI: I'll be there for you, Joe.

MANCHIN: You're going to endorse me?

MURKOWSKI: If he's running, I'm endorsing him.

MANCHIN: See, there we go.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CNN Congressional Correspondent Lauren Fox is on Capitol Hill this morning. Forgive me, Washington's all about politics here. Joe Manchin has to win in a heavily red state that voted for Trump, by large margins. Murkowski has to win in a red state, but one where some in the party are going against her there, so tell us how these mutual endorsements serve their interests.

LAUREN FOX, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, they're sending a message to both of their respective parties as well as their constituents back home that the R or the D in front of their name are not the first thing they think of when they go to the Senate floor and they are voting on behalf of their constituents. Obviously, Manchin has come into some hard times with members of his own party given the fact that he really blocked the president's key.