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U.S. Warns Again Russian Invasion Possible "At Any Time"; ITA Confirms Russian Olympic Skater Failed Drug Test; Ontario Premier Declares State of Emergency. Aired 1-1:30a ET

Aired February 12, 2022 - 01:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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LYNDA KINKADE, CNN ANCHOR (voice-over): Hello and welcome to our viewers joining us from all around the world. I'm Lynda Kinkade. Coming up on CNN NEWSROOM.

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JAKE SULLIVAN, U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER: We are in the window when an invasion could begin at any time should Vladimir Putin decide to order it.

KINKADE (voice-over): A new warning from the U.S., as President Biden prepares to speak with Russian President Putin later today, to find some middle ground.

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KINKADE (voice-over): Plus, a 15-year-old Russian ice skater faces suspension as her doping scandal takes center stage at the Olympics.

And how the Canadian trucker protest is inspiring similar movements around the world.

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UNIDENTIFIED MALE (voice-over): Live from CNN Center, this is CNN NEWSROOM with Lynda Kinkade.

KINKADE: The U.S. and NATO allies now believe Russia has amassed enough troops and weapons to launch a devastating attack against Ukraine at a moment's notice.

More than 100,000 Russian combat forces are taking up positions encircling more than half of Ukraine, from Belarus in the north, to the annexed Crimea in the south. The White House says it fears President Putin may decide to move soon.

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JAKE SULLIVAN, U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER: We continue to see signs of Russian escalation including new forces arriving at the Ukrainian border. As we've said before, we are in the window when an invasion could begin at any time should Vladimir Putin decide to order it.

I will not comment on the details of our Intelligence information, but I do want to be clear, it could begin during the Olympics, despite a lot of speculation that it would only happen after the Olympics.

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KINKADE: The U.S. and other countries are urging their citizens to leave Ukraine while they still can; 3,000 additional U.S. forces are being sent to neighboring Poland to assist with evacuations.

The Russian president is expected to speak by phone Saturday with both the French president, Emmanuel Macron, and U.S. President Joe Biden. CNN's Nic Robertson is in Moscow with the latest.

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NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMATIC EDITOR: The Kremlin spokesman has reacted to all of this, saying that they repeatedly reject the accusation that they intent to invade Ukraine.

He says this is a provocation and the provocation will be used by Ukrainian forces to attack the pro-Russian separatists in the Donbas region in the east of Ukraine.

The ministry of foreign affairs spokeswoman taking an even harsher note, saying that this shows hysteria at the White House, that this is provocation, disinformation, threats even, to cover problems in the United States.

If all of this sounds a little bit familiar, it is, because this is sort of language we've been hearing from Russian officials over the past month, every time the issue of their intention -- or not -- to invade Ukraine comes up.

And it does seem to indicate what we've seen all along that President Putin has not yet responded to the United States' and NATO's letters, telling him they reject his demands, that Ukraine be rejected from NATO, that NATO roll back to its 1997 levels.

There is no movement at the top. The officials are saying the same line, still space for diplomacy. President Macron expected to have a call with President Putin earlier in the afternoon Moscow time and, early evening, President Biden having a phone call with President Putin -- Nic Robertson, CNN, Moscow.

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KINKADE: Susan Glasser joins me now, a CNN global affairs analyst and a staff writer for "The New Yorker."

Good to have you with us, Susan. SUSAN GLASSER, CNN GLOBAL AFFAIRS ANALYST: Thank you so much, Lynda.

KINKADE: So there seems to be a growing urgency here in the U.S. and also in Europe today, with nationals in Ukraine being told to leave.

Do you see signs of an imminent attack or some sort of either full invasion or perhaps some sort of action in the east in the Donbas?

GLASSER: Look, they're very clear messages coming out of Washington and the Biden White House today, essentially saying there is no path forward at the moment for diplomacy.

They seem to really have moved their communications around this to a different level, urgently telling Americans in Ukraine to leave within the next 24 to 48 hours. What we see is also a number of European governments, as well as Israel, telling its diplomats to leave or close up at least part of their shops.

That's something they hadn't done before.

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GLASSER: So I do think what we are seeing is certainly a very different communications strategy and a sense that all of the military assets that would be needed for military action are now on hand, according to the American government.

KINKADE: I'd love to get your perspective, Susan, on what you make of the fact that the U.S. intentionally declassifying and releasing intel on what it thinks Russia might do to provoke a response.

Is it doing that in an effort to deter Russia?

It seems quite an unusual tactic.

GLASSER: I agree. I think it's very unusual. And it's certainly -- first of all, it's a big departure from how the Biden team handled the very first foreign policy crisis of the new administration in Afghanistan.

They seem to be certainly correcting or even potentially overcorrecting in the other direction and getting out in front of the warnings they're receiving in real time.

There is a real interesting divergence between what you're hearing from the U.S. government and what you're hearing from the Ukrainian government itself, which has been consistently downplaying the threat.

You could argue that, of course, it's much more potentially destabilizing for the government in Ukraine, that there is a concern about causing panic and the like. But I haven't seen anything like what we are seeing out of Washington in terms of the real-time communication of information.

Perhaps they think that they are simply exposing Russian machinations in hopes of forestalling them. That's another scenario here. But not yet is it clear.

KINKADE: Yes, I mean, you have to wonder what the next move will be from Vladimir Putin.

I mean, would he invest this much effort, move so many troops in and then back down?

What are the risks of him doing something simply because he can't look like he's doing nothing?

GLASSER: Well, you know, look, I don't think that he has left himself a lot of room for climbing down here, not only assembling this enormous and very costly invasion force on the borders of Ukraine.

But the demands that he's made on the United States, on the West and on Ukraine are essentially nonnegotiable demands. And I mean nonnegotiable, not on the part of Russia per se but on the part of the West.

You know, there is no scenario under which the Biden administration is going to be negotiating over turning back the clock, even if they wanted to. That's not something that's possible.

When NATO expanded in 1997 -- that's not the reason that Vladimir Putin is really at the borders of Ukraine today. And it's certainly not within Biden's power or anyone else to tell Poland that they shouldn't be a member of NATO, when this is exactly the reason, something like this invasion, force why Poland (ph) any other countries wanted to be a part of NATO.

So I just never saw that Putin was outlining something that seemed like a real viable negotiation. So in that sense, it's hard to see him just walking away and claiming victory.

KINKADE: And so, what are the potential political costs for Putin, if he takes no action and backs down?

GLASSER: Well, you know, that's the other interesting thing, is that it's hard to see a scenario where he can just claim victory. But the flip side is, actually going forward with a military invasion of Ukraine, I think it's fair to say, it's potentially catastrophic for Vladimir Putin.

And the cost on the Russian people would be very high indeed, not just in terms of the sanctions but you know, militarily. I think there's real potential risks in the longer term to Putin's government inside Russia.

So he has embarked on a high-stakes gamble here, that does seem somewhat out of keeping with what we've seen of Vladimir Putin for the previous 20 years. This is a very, very high-stakes game at this point, either way.

KINKADE: Susan Glasser, as always, great to get your analysis. Appreciate your time. Thanks so much.

GLASSER: Thank you very much.

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KINKADE: From tensions along Russia's border to tensions on the ice at the Beijing Winter Games. The International Testing Agency has confirmed that a Russian figure skater failed a drug test ahead of the games.

Now the head of the U.S. Anti-Doping Agency says the United States could prosecute any Russian individuals allegedly involved in the case of 15-year-old Kamila Valieva. "WORLD SPORT's" Patrick Snell joins me here in Atlanta.

But first, I want to go to Kristie Lu Stout in Hong Kong.

Kristie, Valieva's future hangs in the balance.

What's the latest?

KRISTIE LU STOUT, CNN ANCHOR AND CORRESPONDENT: Yes, a number of news lines at this day about her situation. We heard from the International Olympic Committee in a press conference earlier today.

An IOC spokesman said that there will be a resolution to her case by February 15th, which is next Tuesday, a resolution about whether or not there will be a suspension. I should also add that next Tuesday is the day that she is scheduled to compete.

All this coming after what the world learned on Friday, from the International Testing Agency, that Valieva had failed a drug test in December.

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STOUT: She tested positive for a banned substance, for a heart medication that could be used to enhance performance. And that result only came to light during Olympic competition in the last week in Beijing.

There are a number of open-ended questions at this moment, questions about the ROC, her team. They won the gold medal in the team figure skating event in Beijing on Monday.

Will that gold medal be revoked?

That is up in the air. Also up in the air is Valieva's situation herself, whether she will be allowed to compete on Tuesday. Now Valieva is a breakout star of the Beijing Olympic Games. She is the Russian figure skating sensation.

She managed to become the first woman to land quadruple jumps during an Olympic competition. She's only 15 years old and her situation has been drawing the ire of many athletes and organizations around the world, not against her but against Russia and its enablers.

The statement for you right now, this is from Global Athlete. And they write this, quote, "Valieva's positive test shows the severe

ramifications of the international community's failure to hold Russia accountable, a 15-year-old athlete testing positive for a potentially harmful prohibited substance," unquote.

Lynda, as you said at the top, her gold medal, her Olympic future, all hanging in the balance. Back to you.

KINKADE: It certainly is. Kristie, Ukraine is also making headlines in Beijing. Tell us more.

STOUT: Yes, as the tension is ratcheting up at the border between Russia and Ukraine, you're seeing this call for peace from a Ukrainian athlete. This is a skeleton sledder and right during competition, I don't know if you have a photo available for you.

But during competition, he opens up a piece of paper and, in it, he calls for peace for Ukraine. The Ukrainian skeletons sledder was later interviewed by the press, as to talk about why he made this protest. We do have a quoted statement from that.

And in it, he says, quote, "It's my position. Like any normal people, I don't want war. I want peace in my country and I want peace in the world, so nobody wants it. That's my position, I fight for that, I fight for peace."

The IOC says that it has spoken to the athlete, this is according to Reuters, and that the matter is closed. Back to you.

KINKADE: Kristie Lu Stout for us in Hong Kong, thanks to you.

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KINKADE: CNN has learned that at least eight Westerners are being held by the Taliban in Afghanistan. Sources say at least one American and seven British citizens have been arrested by the Taliban in the last two months. No formal charges appeared to have been lodged.

Meantime, U.S. President Joe Biden has signed an executive order Friday, releasing $7 billion in frozen assets from Afghanistan's central bank. Half will go to provide humanitarian relief inside the country. Half will go to victims of the 9/11 terror attacks, who have been fighting in court for access to the funds for years.

There's much more to come on CNN. Paris on high alert as anti vaccination protesters converge on the French capital. We'll have the latest.

Plus, the Canadian truckers protesting are threatening to spill over into the U.S. We'll have the latest on that, when we come back.

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KINKADE (voice-over): This was the scene in northern France on Friday, scores of noisy protesters, demonstrating against vaccine requirements and pandemic restrictions despite the fact that masks will no longer be mandatory indoors many places starting February 28th.

Paris is on high alert, as the French version of the so-called freedom convoy moves toward the capital. More than 7,000 law enforcement have now been deployed for the weekend when protests are expected to take place.

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KINKADE: And those protests in France, of course, drawing inspiration from the trucker protests in Canada. Court injunctions and emergency declarations haven't stopped more demonstrations from being planned this weekend on both sides of the U.S.-Canadian border. CNN's Lucy Kafanov reports.

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LUCY KAFANOV, CNN CORRESPONDENT: A Canadian judge has granted an injunction that will help police end the five-day old blockade here that has disrupted the flow of goods between the two countries.

That injunction taking place at 7:00 pm local time but not immediately clear when and if law enforcement will be sent to this area to physically clear it. The mayor of Windsor, Ontario, threatening to start towing cars away if protesters don't leave.

The premier, declaring a state of emergency earlier on Friday, promising severe consequences for those taking part in the blockade. Some of those consequences for noncompliance include a maximum penalty of $100,000 and up to a year in prison.

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KAFANOV: Additional resources have also been given to local police departments around the country.

Now Canada's prime minister, Justin Trudeau, is saying that everything is on the table in terms of ending the blockade, calling on all participants to disperse, to go home. He's promised severe consequences for the truckers, that they could lose their licenses, have a criminal record, potentially be unable to travel internationally.

And this isn't the only area affected. The crossings, three crossings in Michigan, North Dakota and Montana, have been cut off by truckers and like-minded protesters. The blockade threatening to intensify inflation and cost countless workers a paycheck. This is according to the National Association of Manufacturers' CEO. The U.S. auto industry hit especially hard by this. Ford, General

Motors, Toyota and others forced to slow or shut down production, including plants as far away as Alabama. And regardless of what happens here in Windsor overnight, we do know that there are more protests planned in the city of Toronto as well as a slow rolling convoy of trucks, promising to kick off this weekend in Buffalo, in support of the protesters.

And even now, any protesters blocking the Canadian side of the border are now facing legal action. You can see behind me the crowd is still here. The mood is festive. They're staying firm for now. But of course, a lot can change overnight -- Lucy Kafanov, CNN, Windsor, Ontario, Canada.

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KINKADE: Joining me now is David Hoffman. He's an associate professor of sociology, criminology and criminal justice at the University of New Brunswick.

David, thanks so much for joining us.

DAVID HOFFMAN, UNIVERSITY OF NEW BRUNSWICK: It's my pleasure.

KINKADE: So of the 120,000 truckers who cross the border, about 90 percent are already vaccinated. That's according to the Canadian Trucking Alliance. It claims that most people are, quote, "do not have a connection to the trucking industry."

Who then are they?

HOFFMAN: So the individuals who are currently occupying Ottawa, as well as several other cities in Canada, are largely anti-vaxers. They've glommed onto and essentially have championed the cause of the truckers, without any sort of affiliation with the truckers' convoy, although there are truckers there.

So this is essentially an opportunity that these protesters have taken to push the anti-vax mandate, largely fueled by interest groups also in Canada as well as internationally. So this is a movement, essentially, that's being funded and being driven by several interest groups aside from the trucking industry.

KINKADE: And, David, I understand that you specifically study extremists and extremism in Canada.

How strong and active are these groups in Canada in general?

HOFFMAN: So Canada doesn't have the same sort of problem with violent far-right movements that the United States historically has had. However, a study in 2015 located about 100 active groups in Canada.

And a study I'm currently involved with, a follow-up to this study, has noted about 300 active groups since 2016 as well as American paramilitary movements or paramilitary style movements in every single Canadian province since 2016, which is something we've historically not had, which is a concern for public safety.

The government of Canada has tried to crack down on some of these movements, particularly with the 3 Percenter movement, an American style paramilitary movement that was declared a terrorist organization in Canada earlier in 2021. However, the growth has been exponential since 2016.

KINKADE: And, you know, we are hearing here in the U.S. the right-wing media essentially egging on the protests and calling for the same south of the border.

Will we see those sorts of protests here in the United States?

And, if so, what sort of impact would it have?

HOFFMAN: So what scholars like myself and scholars of other forms of extremism have noted is that these types of groups gain momentum from what they see as success, as we've seen it in reverse actually with post-2017, with the Charlottestown (sic).

There was a great deal of energy and activism amongst the far right in the United States after president Trump declared that there were good people on both sides. What we saw here in Canada, in the weeks that followed, is major far-right protests in every single city.

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HOFFMAN: So the global aspects of the far-right movement tend to stay connected to and gain energy from what they see as successes. And, undoubtedly, what has happened here in Canada and in Ottawa, is seen as a success.

We've already seen copycat movements in Australia, in New Zealand and other countries. So I would be surprised if there wasn't some sort of attempt at replication in the United States.

In terms of the consequences, other than the destruction to the daily lives of citizens in Ottawa, there is damage to trade in the sense that the truckers are blocking major land access points across the border, costing something -- the last statistic I read is something around $33-$34 million of trade per day.

And if similar efforts are made, in the American context, I suspect that they would target trade groups as well, which has the potential to damage the economy.

KINKADE: All right, Professor David Hoffman, we will leave it there for now. It's really good to get your perspective. Thanks so much for your time.

HOFFMAN: It's my pleasure.

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KINKADE: Coming up on CNN NEWSROOM, could this be the vessel that will one day take humans to Mars?

Elon Musk is betting on it and just made a major announcement about space travel. Details after the break.

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KINKADE: Welcome back.

Humans could very soon be traveling to Mars, if SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has his wish. Musk gave a much-anticipated update, Thursday night, on his Starship vehicle, which the company hopes would one day take humans to Mars.

He wants to pursue a city on Mars, and he says, Starship will be the vessel to take people there. The Starship prototype achieved its first successful launch and touchdown just nine months ago.

Thanks for spending part of your day with me. I am Lynda Kinkade. You can find me on Twitter and Instagram. And I'll be back with more news in about half an hour. "CONNECTING AFRICA" is up next. Stay with us.