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U.S. Issues Stark Warning of Russian Invasion; National Security Advisor Briefs Lawmakers; Mark Hertling is Interviewed about the Russia Situation; IOC Clears Teen Skater; Protesters Cleared from U.S.-Canada Bridge; John Bolton is Interviewed about Russia and Ukraine. Aired 9-9:30a ET

Aired February 14, 2022 - 09:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[09:00:30]

BIANNA GOLODRYGA, CNN ANCHOR: This morning, on the brink. With Russia amassing more than 100,000 troops near Ukraine's border, the Biden administration warns that an invasion could come at any moment.

Good morning, everyone, I'm Bianna Golodryga in New York.

JIM SCIUTTO, CNN ANCHOR: And I'm Jim Sciutto, reporting this morning from Kyiv, Ukraine, of course the Ukrainian capital.

New this morning, new reporting into CNN, insight into Russia's potential military plan. I'm told that U.S. intelligence indicates Russian military action could begin as soon as this week beginning with air and missile attacks. Those attacks expected to focus on taking out key military infrastructure, including air defense and early warning systems. These new details suggest that Russian troops would then invade Ukraine from multiple points around the country, including encircling the capital of Kyiv within one to two days.

All of this in stark contrast to what we're seeing on the ground here in the Ukrainian capital. The city is calm. On Sunday evening we found the streets, the restaurants, the stores crowded with people. We spoke to Ukrainians who told us they are aware, of course, of Russian forces amassing on the border but say that what happens next is out of their control.

Our reporters, correspondents, analysts standing by with the latest from around the country and around the world.

CNN senior international correspondent Matthew Chance is here with me in Kyiv. CNN's senior international correspondent Sam Kiley, he is farther to the east in Kharkiv, Ukraine.

Matthew, I do want to begin with you because we had a key meeting today between the Russian foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, and the Russian president, of course, Vladimir Putin, who is making all the decisions here. In effect, it looked like the foreign minister updating the Russian president on the progress of diplomacy. What did he say?

MATTHEW CHANCE, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes, it was one of these sort of staged, televised consultations that we often see on Russian state television. And I think notable by the fact that it was staged on this extraordinarily long table which I think indicates the degree of -- yes, some symbolic of the degree of isolation the Russian president is currently sort of found himself in at the moment.

But, you know, the message of it absolutely crucial, particularly at this time of heightened tensions. Vladimir Putin, and I'm sort of paraphrasing him a little bit, saying, look, what are the chances of there being a diplomatic breakthrough, continuing this diplomatic process, or is it just the west essentially trying to drag this on sort of indefinitely involving (INAUDIBLE).

The Russian foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, saying, well, look, we're going to make sure that bogging down doesn't happen. But he advised in that consultation, live, remember, on Russian television, that there was work -- there was some, you know, scope for further progress on the diplomatic front. And so that's a pretty good sign. It indicates that, of course, that the decision to invade Ukraine has not yet been taken. But, of course, it doesn't take away from the fact that there are those troops, 100,000 or more, near the border of Ukraine. There is the capability of Russia that it still has out there to take the kind of decisive action that you just described at the top of this show. But it's apparent at the moment, the decision to go in or not has not yet been taken.

SCIUTTO: A potential opening and, of course, that would not happen live on Russian television unless it was a message that the Russian president deliberately wanted to send to the Russian people and the world.

There was a confusing moment, one might say, on the Ukrainian side this morning that you had a not insignificant Ukrainian diplomat, the ambassador to the U.K., raise the possibility of taking NATO membership for Ukraine off the table, before he then was corrected and clarified and so on.

CHANCE: Yes.

SCIUTTO: What did that mean, exactly, and was it accidental?

CHANCE: Well, I mean -- well, I mean, look, he was rolled back for -- he rolled it back very quickly. And the foreign ministry of Ukraine put out a statement saying that's not Ukrainian policy. It's in the constitution of Ukraine to aim to join NATO eventually.

The Russians, though, they stepped in quite early on and said, look, if that's a -- if that's a formal offer, then we take it. But, of course, remember, Ukraine not joining the western military alliance is one of those key security demands that the Russians -- the Russians have made.

I will say this, though, that privately, if you speak to Ukrainian officials, there is an understanding that they're probably never going to join NATO. And so -- so, in the back door kind of kitchen table talks, the idea of surrendering something that you're never going to get isn't so much of a big concession.

SCIUTTO: Although the U.S. and NATO view is that it's up to the countries, it shouldn't be up to Russia to decide this isn't going to happen. We'll see if there's a diplomatic solution to that.

CHANCE: Yes.

SCIUTTO: Matthew Chance, thanks very much.

We do have Sam Kiley, as I said, in Kharkiv, further to the east.

And, Sam, I know you've been there a number of days. Do you feel there a sense of urgency about a potential Russian invasion that we do not see here in the capital?

[09:05:10]

SAM KILEY, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Jim, I've just come back from right -- standing right on the border with Russia, some 30 miles north of here, some 50 miles further north -- 50 miles from here is the Russian city of Belgrade (ph).

Now, the first guard's tank army of the Russian Armed Forces is reportedly being massed there. It was -- according to the geo location of a lot of the movement that we've done of the very significant movement of tanks, multiple rocket launching systems, (INAUDIBLE) surface to surface missiles, helicopters, some of them were just four or five miles from the location I was standing in. And the atmosphere was one of complete indifference, I have to say, on the side of Ukrainians. I talked to women in a village about five or six miles before the border, she simple rued the end of the Soviet empire and said that her pension was worth nothing. A younger man was repeating the sounds or the statements coming from President Zelensky, Jim, who has been cautioning against panic, cautioning against the economic effects that talk of an imminent invasion is having on Ukraine.

Because, of course, an unstable economy and an unstable political system in Ukraine, which suits Vladimir Putin very nicely. He doesn't want to see a successful western-leaning democracy on his doorstep in Ukraine, not with such a substantial Russian-speaking population on top of that. There's 1.5 million people here in Kharkiv, 75 percent of them are Russian speaking. And, again, there is a -- there's not an indifference, but they are pretty relaxed. There does not seem to be any significant preparations going ahead for defense against a war or even stockpiling of basic food stuffs, Jim.

SCIUTTO: Remarkable to see.

We should note, of course, the Ukrainian leaders have been asking the U.S. and NATO partners for more military assistance, even as they're making those calming comments to the Ukrainian public.

Sam Kiley there in Kharkiv, thanks very much.

Bianna, to you in New York.

GOLODRYGA: It's just so striking there, Jim, to see in Kyiv and there where Sam is that people going out -- about their daily lives and businesses as if there isn't the threat of a major war. But, in fact, there is.

And in just a few minutes, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan is expected to begin briefing lawmakers on the crisis between Russia and Ukraine.

Now, during the call Sunday, President Biden told Ukrainian President Zelensky that the U.S. would respond, quote, swiftly and decisively if Russia invades.

So let's get to CNN's Jeremy Diamond at the White House.

Jeremy, what more do we know about what we can expect from today's briefings with lawmakers?

JEREMY DIAMOND, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, Bianna, these briefings come at a pivotal time amid these tensions between Russia and Ukraine as U.S. officials, including National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan have really been ramping up their warnings about the heightened risk of a Russian invasion into Ukraine. It's clear that towards the end of last week something changed, that there was some kind of intelligence that came into the United States indicating a much higher risk of invasion than had previously existed. And so no doubt that Jake Sullivan, as he goes to the House first in the morning to brief leadership members as well as the leaders of the relevant national security committees, and then to the Senate side in the afternoon to brief Senate leadership, as well as the chairs and ranking members of those committees, it's clear that there will be questions for him about that intelligence and about the fact that, as he was saying just yesterday, that while the U.S. cannot predict the day of a potential invasion, that we are now in the window for a potential invasion. That there is active planning for military action.

And, of course, all of this also comes after President Biden spoke over the weekend, not only with the Ukrainian president but also with Russian President Vladimir Putin. And the last thing I'll say about that is just that U.S. officials, after that phone call, said that nothing had fundamentally changed in the dynamic. And despite President Biden's warnings to Putin and talk of a potential diplomatic off-ramp, the Russian president could still choose to invade.

Bianna.

GOLODRYGA: Yes, it was also interesting, out of the president's conversation with Ukrainian President Zelensky, Zelensky actually invited President Biden to come to Ukraine now. Not likely that will happen.

Jeremy Diamond, thank you so much.

SCIUTTO: Joining us now is CNN military analyst and retired Lieutenant General Mark Hertling. He commanded U.S. Army forces in Europe.

General, good to have you on this morning.

I want to ask you your view of what Russia has done so far. We do not know if Putin will order the invasion, but U.S. intelligence indicates they can invade. They have everything in place, detailed plans about air strikes, missile strikes and a plan to encircle the capital here, Kyiv, within 24 to 48 hours.

Would Putin amass such a force purely as a threat to pressure Ukraine and not use it, in your view?

[09:10:04]

LT. GEN. MARK HERTLING (RET.), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Absolutely, he would, Jim.

I'm going to go back to the Russian way of war, which is very different than the American way of war, if you will. They used the so- called, and I'll use this in quotations, the Gerasimov doctrine. If they can win without fighting, they certainly will attempt to do so.

Also, they're not going to attack first with conventional forces from a cold start. Shock troops aren't likely going to cross the border first without warning. As Matthew said a minute ago -- or, I'm sorry, it was Sam that said they have the combined arms army across the border. You've got to remember, too, that we have not seen Russia use a combined arms army since World War II. And they don't train well in that regard. So they will spend significant time on what we would call preparing the battlefield, like all modern military forces attempt to do, but they'll do it in a very different way with the so-called -- and Bianna can help me out on this -- the Russian word is moscarofca (ph), deception, showing the world they might do one thing and doing something completely different.

The last thing I'd say, Jim, is, you know, Ukraine is 40 percent bigger -- has a bigger land mass than Iraq and Ukraine has about 6 million more people with major population center and a population that has already vowed to begin an insurgency if Russia attacks. We used, in the 1990 Desert Storm operation, 500,000 soldiers. In the 2003 invasion of Iraq, we used about 180,000 soldiers.

So, yes, there are a lot of forces around Ukraine right now, but can they coordinate any kind of conventional force movement? Is it an exercise or a real preparation for war? And is this Putin trying to get his way in a manner that doesn't require fighting? I think all of those things we should be considering.

GOLODRYGA: Yes, moscarofca (ph). You said it very well, Lieutenant General.

Let me ask you about how Ukraine is responding because there had been some confusion and speculation as to whether they're approaching this crisis as seriously as the west, as the United States is. We've had Zelensky over and over again say that he doesn't seem to be seeing such alarming intel.

Do you think, however, that could be a productive approach from the Ukrainians so as not to provoke Russia, not to raise the alarm unnecessarily perhaps in their view to give Vladimir Putin an opening, perhaps for an unintended consequence, some fighting, what have you, any sort of skirmish?

HERTLING: I do, Bianna. And that's a good point. And it's not only that. It's not only the attempt to deescalate and not infuriate the mad men of Putin, but it's also balancing, as so many reporters have said, balancing the requirements to maintain his government and his economy. The thing that concerns me, Jim, in your interview just now with Matthew, the Ukrainian ambassador to the U.K. making the statement, well, maybe we should take Ukrainian sovereignty. He didn't say that, but he said the opportunity to join NATO. That's an attempt to take Ukrainian's sovereign decision making off the table. And that's exactly something that Russia wanted to gain by not going to war. First of all, dividing Ukraine, making them more dependent on the Russian state, putting that wedge between NATO, affecting the world's economic market, which we're seeing the price of oil go up right now. All of those things contribute to that attempt by Mr. Putin to have his way. And there should not be budges from any side in terms of giving Russia the opportunity to influence the sovereign Ukraine decision making.

SCIUTTO: Yes, I mean the other part of the Gerasimov doctrine, as you mentioned, is a war on many fronts, right, including the economic front. And that's -- we've certainly seen that here in Europe with how Russia uses energy to pressure Europe.

Lieutenant General Mark Hertling, great to have you on this morning.

HERTLING: Always a pleasure, guys. Thanks.

GOLODRYGA: And still to come, we will speak to former National Security Adviser John Bolton. Is there still a chance for diplomacy? We'll get perspective coming up.

Plus, a Russian figure skater can continue to compete in the Olympics. This despite testing positive for a banned substance. The reason behind the IOC's very curious decision up next.

And the Los Angeles Rams Super Bowl champs after a come-from-behind victory over the Cincinnati Bengals. We'll have the highlights.

Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:18:57]

GOLODRYGA: Fifteen-year-old Russian figure skater Kamila Valieva can continue competing in the Beijing Olympics despite testing positive for a banned substance before the games. An international court ruled this morning Valieva can skate in the short program of the women's singles skating competition tomorrow, an event that she is favored to win.

CNN sports anchor Coy Wire joins us now from China.

Coy, this decision came from a court of arbitration for sports panel. Do we know why they ruled this way?

COY WIRE, CNN SPORTS ANCHOR: Yes, we're learning more today, Bianna. Remember, last week the 15-year-old Russian tested positive for a failed heart drug in December, but the result wasn't confirmed until after Valieva had helped the Russian Olympic Committee claim gold in the team figure skating event at these Beijing games. And after finding out, appeals from the International Olympic Committee, the World Anti-Doping Agency were made, but the court of arbitration for sport ruled that Valieva will be allowed to take part in that individual event on Tuesday due to the, quote, exceptional circumstances of her case, one being a minor, part of which includes the athlete not having ample time to defend herself.

[09:20:01]

The panel did note that due to time pressures, this ruling, Bianna, is not a decision on whether or not she violated the anti-doping rules. It just was a decision on whether or not she would be allowed to continue to compete. And for now that decision is, yes, she can.

KEILAR: Look, this isn't an outlier case, right? Russia has a long history of abuse of substance going into the Olympic games.

Valieva won gold already in the team skating event. The U.S., we know, took home silver. Has the IOC decided about those specific medals?

WIRE: Yes, Bianna, the IOC says that there will be no medal ceremony for that team event in which the Russian Olympic committee took gold. As you said, Team USA took silver in that event. Those athletes will not be able to step on a podium with their friends and the people they've worked hard with to collect that medal. Japan took the bronze. Those athletes will leave these games empty-handed.

Now, the IOC have asked the International Skating Union to allow for an extra competitor to take -- take place in that individual free skate, Bianna, for reasons of fairness. And also said that if Valieva finishes in the top three of that women's single figure skating event, no medal ceremony will take place for that event either, not even a flower ceremony, Bianna, at that venue, which would be exceedingly unfortunate for the skaters in that event who have worked their entire lives for this moment.

GOLODRYGA: Of course a lot of confusion. And this decision has received a lot of pushback worldwide as well.

Coy Wire, thank you, as always.

Well, the Ambassador Bridge, the busiest international land border crossing in North America, is fully open this morning after authorities cleared out Covid mandate protests who'd blocked traffic for nearly a week. The blockade at the bridge paralyzed supply chains and slowed or completely stopped auto production in both the United States and Canada.

CNN's Miguel Marquez is live in Windsor, Ontario.

Miguel, police began clearing out the protests Saturday morning. Not much pushback. And there you see the clear passage right behind you.

MIGUEL MARQUEZ, CNN SENIOR NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes, so the bridge is open both ways and it's starting to get back to normal. It -- you know, lots of traffic coming from Canada to the U.S. and we're seeing lots of traffic from the U.S. side coming this way as well.

But, you know, police are going to have a big job on their hands in the days and weeks ahead because protests are promising to come back and try to block traffic, to slow roll along the roads.

When you enter Canada on this side, it's about a three-mile jaunt to the main highway, 401 along surface streets. Lots of neighborhoods, lots of ways to access that road. That's what police are dealing with now. They've had to put up cement barriers along there to try to control it. It is going to be sort of a game of cat and mouse is the way the police chief sort of phrased it yesterday, until these protests cease.

They got so much attention here, obviously, there are several other locations across the country where they are blocking areas not as important as this one. But, for now, things here in Windsor and in Detroit starting to get back to normal now that this bridge is back open for business.

Bianna.

GOLODRYGA: A major economic artery there. And it's nice to see that the traffic is flowing once again.

Miguel Marquez, thank you.

And still ahead, Ukraine's president staring down a potential Russian invasion. The White House warning that it could happen any day now. So, what can the Biden administration do to stop Putin at this point? We'll talk to former National Security Adviser John Bolton up next.

And we are just moments away from the opening bell on Wall Street. Futures are down lower right now, a bit mixed this morning, as markets grow increasingly concerned about the potential Russian invasion of Ukraine. This after a weekend of high-level diplomatic talks failed to yield a peaceful resolution. Investors are also weighing the economic impacts of inflation, as well as any big moves the Fed might make to response to keep the economy on track. We, of course, are keeping an eye on all of it for you.

Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) [09:28:54]

SCIUTTO: President Biden's national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, is warning publicly that Russia could invade Ukraine any day now. And CNN has new reporting this morning learning that the latest U.S. intelligence assessment indicates Russia is continuing to build up forces around Ukraine in preparation for possible military action this week. According to a senior U.S. official briefed ono that intelligence, the U.S. believes Russian military action will begin with air and missile attacks specifically on key Ukrainian military infrastructure, including airfields, air defense and early warning systems.

Also in the plans, an assault on Kyiv with the intention of surrounding the capital within 24 to 48 hours.

Joining me now to discuss is former national security adviser for former President Trump, John Bolton.

Ambassador, thanks for taking the time this morning.

JOHN BOLTON, FORMER NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER: Glad to be with you.

SCIUTTO: So, the will of this invasion has not been answered, will Putin order the invasion. The can, though, has, at least according to U.S. intelligence, that Putin has all the capabilities he needs to carry out a broad invasion, perhaps crippling invasion of this country.

[09:30:03]

Do you believe, based on your interactions with him and Russia in the past, that he would build such a force