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Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky Calls For "Day Of Unity" Wednesday; German Chancellor Heads To Moscow After Kyiv Visit; Russia Figure Skater To Compete Despite Doping Scandal; Justin Trudeau Invokes Rare Emergencies Act To Stop Protests; Ontario To Lift Vaccine Passport Requirements On March 1st; Turkish President Meets With Crown Prince In Abu Dhabi. Aired 12-1a ET

Aired February 15, 2022 - 00:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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MICHAEL HOLMES, CNN ANCHOR: Hello, I'm Michael Holmes coming to you live in Ukraine where we are hearing new warnings of a possible Russian invasion despite signals from Moscow that they haven't given up on diplomacy.

JOHN VAUSE, CNN ANCHOR: I'm John Vause at CNN's World Headquarters following the latest from the Winter Olympics where a Russian figure skater at the center of a doping scandal is about to compete.

Another ominous sign that a Russian invasion of Ukraine is drawing near. The U.S. Embassy in Kyiv is closing. All remaining personnel relocating to the city of Lviv, 500 kilometers to the West of the Capitol, not far from the border of NATO ally Poland.

On Monday, the Russian Defense Ministry released these images showing tanks conducting military drills in the Leningrad region, at least that's what they say.

But it should be noted, the area borders Estonia, which was once under Moscow's rule, but has now been a NATO member for almost 20 years.

According to the Pentagon, an invasion could happen at any moment. And despite U.S. Intelligence which says Russian troops and materiel continue to be deployed to Ukraine's border.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Vice President Vladimir Putin on Monday, there is still a chance for a diplomatic end to this crisis. A Kremlin spokesman says Mr. Putin has always been willing to negotiate.

CNN's Michael Holmes is following all the latest developments this hour from Lviv in Ukraine. So, Michael, take it from here.

HOLMES: Thank you, John. Yes, the tensions continue. But thankfully, diplomacy isn't dead yet. Germany's Chancellor, the latest European leader shuttling between Kyiv and Moscow looking for a diplomatic solution to this crisis. Olaf Scholz will be arriving in the Russian capital in a few hours from now.

On Monday, he met with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky, and went on to it -- who went on to address the nation saying Ukraine remains calm in the face of the Russian threat. But he called for a day of unity on Wednesday when Ukrainians he said should fly the nation's flag and wear blue and yellow ribbons.

Now, here's what he said about Ukraine's ambition to join NATO.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

VOLODYMYR ZELENSKY, UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT (through translator): Regarding the future alliance, our aspirations and missions, you know them perfectly well. We have some desire in our country. And in addition to this, we have a war in the East. Yes, we would like to join NATO, and it will protect our integrity.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: More now from CNN Senior International Correspondent Matthew Chance in Kyiv.

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MATTHEW CHANCE, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice over): The first strike on Ukraine may start with a barrage of air and missile attacks. But according to U.S. officials, it's ground troops like these, Russian Marines now training in neighboring Belarus that may eventually move across the Ukrainian frontier.

As tensions mount, these latest images released by the Russian Defense Ministry have further jangling nerves. It may have the capability, but in Moscow, a decision to attack does not yet appear to have been made.

In fact, this carefully choreographed scene on Russian state television looks designed to show that diplomacy remains very much on the table, a very long table.

Is there a chance to reach agreement with our partners, President Putin asks his Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, or is it just an attempt to drag us into endless negotiations, he said. I must say, there's always a chance, Lavrov responds. It seems to me that possibilities are far from exhausted. They should not be carrying on indefinitely, but at this stage, I would suggest they be continued and increased, he adds. It is an important sign. The Kremlin may still see negotiations bearing fruit.

Others haven't given up either. In the Ukrainian capital, Germany's new chancellor was greeted warmly by the embattled Ukrainian leader despite bitter disappointment that Germany hasn't done more to deter Russia.

[00:05:04]

CHANCE: And amid the urgent and dire U.S. assessments of a Russian attack, perhaps in dates, Ukrainian President remains determined to keep his country calm. Even declaring with irony and national celebration, when Russian forces are set to be rolling in.

ZELENSKY (through translation): We are told that February 16th will be the day of the attack. We will make it the day of unity. The relevant decree has already been signed. On this day, we will hoist national flags, put on blue and yellow ribbons and show the world our unity.

CHANCE: But Ukraine is also desperate to show the strength of its defenses, now conducting its own military drills and releasing dramatic videos like this one, set to music, faced with an overwhelming Russian threat. Ukraine seems at once at ease and bracing for (INAUDIBLE).

Matthew Chance, CNN, Kyiv.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: And joining me now from Los Angeles is CNN European Affairs Commentator, Dominic Thomas. Good to see you, Dominic. How United do you think the Western alliance is on all of this as united afront as they're portraying?

DOMINIC THOMAS, CNN EUROPEAN AFFAIRS COMMENTATOR: I think it's hard to say that they are completely united, Michael. It's yes, obviously, you know, NATO, you could argue works as a coordinated body, the European Union has representatives, spokespersons and so on.

But at the end of the day, you're dealing with 27 different countries who have very different stakes in what is going on here from the position of Germany with regards to the much talked about Nord Stream deal, the question of Germany and defense support and so on, versus the diplomacy of Emmanuel Macron and others.

And so, there is absolutely in terms of the -- of the E.U. position and the United States position, a red line that there should be no further incursions into the Ukraine, that we know for the time being.

But when it gets beyond that, it is hard to see. And I think that that is part of the reason why this situation is going on. And part of the reason why Russian President Putin is so adept at exploiting some of these tensions that we're seeing.

HOLMES: Yes, and then to that point, when we talk about the end game for Putin, I mean, do you think that what he's seeking is more about a broader regional security plan rather than just the, you know, initial concerns out laid so far about NATO encroachment? Do you think -- do you think he wants something grander?

THOMAS: I think you're absolutely on point that there is no doubt about it, that the whole question of the geopolitics of the region, and in fact of global politics and in a greater concern needs to go through a process of recalibration.

Certainly, during the era of President Trump, we moved towards a kind of breakdown of the multilateral order and towards the rise of kind of protectionist, nationalist examples. And now, we've -- the thing that things are changing. Putin is clearly

concerned about the kind of geopolitics of the region, but there is also an inconsistency there. Many of the countries that used to be under the former Soviet sphere of influence are now E.U. members, many of them are NATO members. And the whole question of the red line around Ukraine joining NATO points to this inconsistency.

The big question I would ask is, why on earth would Ukraine not want to join at this particular moment? In 2014, Russia was a member of the Group of Eight, they were suspended because they went into Crimea, because they've been supporting an insurgency on the East in -- of Ukraine in the Donbass region and because of military buildup on their borders. So of course, the insecurity is there.

But the question one would ask is, what about the next step? What about when Ukraine returns to the negotiating table to join the European Union? Will that be another red line?

And so, I think that the way out of this is going to be through a recalibration, a sit down and a resetting of these former Cold War relationships, perhaps Cold War plus, we might call it, relocating and re-situating all of these countries in a new order that is acceptable to all of them, that protects democratic territorial integrity, while at the same time raising the security standards of these respective countries in the region.

HOLMES: Yes. That certainly does feel that way that he wants something broader. I wanted to ask you, what are the political risks here for Joe Biden, the U.S. of course was caught flat footed by the Russians moving into Crimea in 2014 more proactive this time, but what's at stake for him in terms of his handling of all of this?

THOMAS: Yes, I think Michael, you're raising some really important issues. Yes, I can't help but thinking of the Iran hostage crisis and the Jimmy Carter era. I can't help but think of the fact that midterm and elections are coming up in the United States. And that international conflict does not automatically help the agenda of President Biden with the sort of the number of domestic issues that he has to -- and that he has to take yet.

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THOMAS: So, this is a very complicated game here. One has to question and what really is at stake here for the United States in the region? Why now in 2022 is President Biden being so vociferous? And so, unyielding, one could argue, and when it comes to this particular situation.

And let's not -- let's face it, some of his comments, for example, around Nord Stream II, I don't think have helped particular negotiations. And I think that when I talk about recalibration, it's also going to be important to rethink the particular way in which let's just say the West deals with Russia in a broader context. And a lot of these questions around oil, politics, fossil fuel, and the relationship between Russia and the influence that it has on different Western nations comes to the negotiating table. And I think that that extent, President Biden has a vulnerability

here, when it comes to his -- to this international conflict, and to the stakes for him back domestically in getting embroiled in a conflict of this kind of nature (INAUDIBLE) at the heart of Europe.

HOLMES: Great analysis as always. Dominic Thomas, as always, our thanks to you. And I'll be back with much more from Lviv at the bottom of the hour.

But first, I want to throw it back to John at the CNN Center with a look at today's other news, John.

VAUSE: Michael, thank you. In a few hours from now, competitors in the women's singles skating short program will take to the ice at the Winter Games in Beijing, but one of them at least will have a distinct advantage over the others.

Russian figure skater Kamila Valieva tested positive in December for the ban drug trimetazidine, a hard medication used to treat angina. But when taken by athletes, it improves the heart's efficiency and blood supply and can improve endurance.

On Monday, the Court of Arbitration for Sport cleared Valieva to compete, but they did not clear her outright. Another investigation has only just begun into the failed drug test. There's no indication when that will be resolved.

The 15-year-old sensation is favored to win at least one more gold at these games. If she does, there will be no traditional ceremony on a podium with flowers and a medal presentation. That also applies to those who finished in second and third place as well.

Live to Hong Kong scene, CNN's Kristie Lu Stout standing by with the very latest of the games. And the outrage over this decision to allow Valieva to continue to compete, it can be heard from around the world and it's coming from a lot of former Olympians.

KRISTIE LU STOUT, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, outrage from former Olympians, Olympic champions, from athletic organizations as well and Valieva widely seen as the favorite to win the women's singles event which begins later this evening in Beijing. She has been cleared to compete and if she wins, there will be no medal ceremony, which would be hugely disappointing for all the athletes involved.

And interestingly, the IOC, the International Olympic Committee has requested a 25th athlete to take part in the free skating portion of this event on Thursday. Of course, it was on Monday. That's when we heard from CAS or the Court of Arbitration for Sport, where they ruled that she'd be cleared to compete, citing two things.

First, her age, she's 15 years old, she's a minor and also issues surrounding the drug test process. And now, Valieva has become the face of the Russian doping scandal.

But previously, she had been the breakout star of the Beijing Olympic Games, an exceptional athlete who managed to land successfully those quadruple jumps, the first time for a woman to do that during Olympic competition. And her situation has drawn the anger and ire of athletic figures all over the world directed not necessarily to her but at Russia and organizations seem to be enabling Russia.

I want to bring up the latest statement for you, this one from Global Athlete, they write this: "Today is another example of the failure of the global sport and antidoping system. The fact that Kamila Valieva, a 15-year-old Russian figure skater has been found to have a performance enhancing substance in her system is evidence of abuse of a minor. Sport should be protecting its athletes, not damaging them".

And then, we have this statement from WADA. Its president writes: The doping of children is evil and unforgiveable. And the doctors, the coaches, other support personnel who are found to provide a performance enhancing drugs to minors should be banned for life. Personally, I also think that they should be in prison.

And finally, this from Olympic figure skating champion Yuna Kim, she won gold back in 2010. She said the athlete who violates doping cannot compete in the game, the principle must be observed without exception. All players' efforts and dreams are equally precious. Yuna Kim issuing that notice on Instagram along with a black tile, just image of all black.

Valieva is one of the youngest Olympians to ever test positive for banned substance as she is due to hit the ice to compete this evening 9:25 p.m. Beijing time. Back to you, John.

VAUSE: Still wonder what the other athletes think at this point. But Kristie, thanks so much for that we, appreciate it. Kristie Lu Stout live in Hong Kong.

We'll take a short break. When we come back here on CNN NEWSROOM, Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau reaches for the heavy hammer of the decades' old never used Emergency Act to end the occupation of downtown Ottawa by protesters opposed to pandemic restrictions.

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VAUSE: Also, after almost a decade of strain and at times hostile relations, the UAE and Turkey are looking to make nice. Details on the Turkish president's official visit to Abu Dhabi, right after this.

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VAUSE: The Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has taken his most aggressive approach so far in trying to end the so-called freedom convoy protests. He's invoked the government's Emergency Act for the first time ever to try and end more than two weeks of blockades and demonstrations of the Capitol.

The law was passed in 1988. It can suspend the freedom of movement and assembly. It also allows authorities to target the bank accounts -- freeze those bank accounts of those linked to the protests.

Here's CNN's Paula Newton reporting in from Ottawa. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

PAULA NEWTON, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice over): The rowdy backdrop for these protest obscures a threat the Canadian officials say is real. This movement they say now in its third week is a threat to public safety.

JUSTIN TRUDEAU, CANADIAN PRIME MINISTER: It is now clear that there are serious challenges to law enforcement's ability to effectively enforce the law.

NEWTON: In a historic move, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau invoked the Emergency Act for the first time. And while he said it will be limited geographically and in scope, it will allow for stronger enforcement.

The protests right across the country, especially at border crossings have proven to be determined and apparently potentially dangerous.

TRUDEAU: This is not a peaceful protest.

NEWTON: Police in Alberta allege a small group within the protests had a stash of weapons and were willing to do harm at the Alberta Montana border if attempts were made to disrupt the blockade.

And the war of words spills out daily on Ottawa streets, differences on COVID pitting protesters against residents.

MARK TRANTER, PROTESTER: I mean, there's people here that traveled across the country. Have you ever talked to real people?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: (INAUDIBLE). He's awesome. He's from Alberta, whatever.

TRANTER: Yes, sure.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: They're destroying the Canada, but --

TRANTER: Talk to someone who's lost their job, talk to someone who's lost their business and we'll give you a clearer perspective on what's going on here. We don't want to be in Ottawa. We don't want to be here.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We'll get the real picture from him. He took it from Facebook.

TRANTER: The people from around this country have come here because we want to stand up for freedom and we will -- we will stand up for freedom.

NEWTON: The so-called quest for freedom has made many of those in downtown feel like they're in a noisy, chaotic prison.

ALEX WOZNICA, BIKE SHOP EMPLOYEE: To shut down the city, to -- you know, harass and intimidate local residents to this extent, I wouldn't have thought that the police and the government would allow it. NEWTON (on camera): And so, Trudeau is saying enough. Now, while he says the military won't be called in, he is using more enforcement power and imposing stiff financial penalties which could bankrupt some protesters and risks further inflaming an already tense situation.

Paula Newton, CNN, Ottawa.

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VAUSE: With us now is Dr. Shoshana Ungerleider, an Internal Medicine Specialist, as well as host of the TED Health podcast. It's good to see you. It's been a while.

DR. SHOSHANA UNGERLEIDER, INTERNAL MEDICINE SPECIALIST, CROSSOVER HEALTH: Good to see you too, John. Thanks for having me.

VAUSE: We welcome. Now, in the Canadian capitalist, these protesters dig in and we're seeing the authorities ramped up the response to try and clear the city.

At the same time, CNN reporting that the Premier of Ontario now has plans to drop the province's vaccine passport requirements March 1st if COVID-19 hospitalization rates continue to improve.

Now, here's part of the announcement from Doug Ford, this is what he said.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DOUG FORD, ONTARIO PREMIER: Let me be very clear, we're moving in this direction because it's safe to do so. Today's announcement is not because of what's happening in Ottawa, or Windsor, but despite it.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

VAUSE: OK, I guess the question is, are they in a position where they can actually scrap this vaccine passport? This has been a key demand of the protesters over for some time now. They'll obviously see this as a win.

UNGERLEIDER: I agree, John. You know, cases have dropped precipitously in Canada, like much of the rest of the world has experienced a huge Omicron surge in the last two months.

Now, hospitalizations actually remain high relative to their peak in Canada just two weeks ago. So, I have to say that dropping vaccine passports doesn't make sense to me. And similarly, talking about removing masking requirements feels very premature.

You know, vaccination is decidedly our most powerful tool to control this pandemic. And I certainly understand the political interest in a transition from a government-imposed mandate to more of an individual decision to do these things. But just because for example, masks may no longer be required. This

doesn't mean that everyone should go mask-less. It also doesn't mean that it's suddenly safe to do so. There's still a whole lot of SARS- CoV-2 out there. So, I think for people who are inclined to be safe, keep doing that. Now is not the time to throw caution to the wind.

VAUSE: You know, the big demand for hearing from these protesters in Ottawa as well as their supporters around the world is what everybody wants, is to return to normality.

Yet, the protesters are opposed to pretty much everything that will make that happen. Vaccination, vaccination mandates, as well as mandates for masks.

So, what sort of impact is that having or their actions having on prolonging the epidemic?

UNGERLEIDER: Well, you know, John, COVID-19 has been the most disruptive experience to daily life, certainly in my lifetime. And I think every facet of our society has been impacted by all over the world. And vaccination is the way out of this pandemic. And these shots have been administered to over half of humanity at this point. They're extremely safe and effective. That's very clear.

So, you know, the fact that people are protesting again, the thing that will, as you say, set them free. To me, it doesn't make sense. But what I do know is it's going to keep taking an ongoing global effort to make sure that we get more vaccines in arms.

I've been asking people to take a very simple step that also provides good protection to themselves and their families and the rest of society is not only completely reasonable, but it's necessary and we need to press on and continue to find ways to get more shots into arms.

VAUSE: The White House Medical Advisor -- Chief Medical Adviser Dr. Anthony Fauci, he was recently asked when local health authorities will take the lead in responding to the pandemic as opposed to the Biden administration.

He told the Financial Times: As we get out of the full-blown pandemic phase of COVID-19, which we are certainly heading out of, these decisions will increasingly be made on a local level, rather than centrally decided or mandated.

The word (PH) over, countries are easing pandemic restrictions. You mentioned Canada dropping the indoor mask mandate. We're now to part of the pandemic to find more by what we can do as opposed to what we cannot do.

But at the same time, we're hearing from the WHO -- the head of the WHO saying: In some countries, high vaccine coverage combined with the lowest severity of Omicron is driving a false narrative that the pandemic is over.

At the same time, low vaccine coverage and low testing rates in other countries are creating the ideal conditions for new variants to emerge.

So, can both these things be true at the same time?

UNGERLEIDER: Oh, it's the tough kind of nuance of this whole situation, right? I think starting with Dr. Fauci, you know, he said that he thinks we're getting out of the full-blown pandemic phase. Gosh, don't I hope that's true. I don't know.

In the same breath, though, he says, everything I'm saying is based on a big caveat. And that's that we all need to be prepared for the eventuality that we might get a completely different variants, one that breaks through all the protection that we've received from prior vaccination or infection and that's possible.

So, I do think that we need to continue to message that, as physicians, as public health departments, as governments.

So, the message should be let's deal with what's in front of us today. Let's follow the science and make policy based on that. Let's act accordingly.

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UNGERLEIDER: But that does not mean that we won't need to ramp up our mitigation measures, reintroduce things like mandatory masking and others in the future if things change.

I think that's really hard for most people, and we're all looking for certainty about when this pandemic is going to be over. And when we can just forget about it all.

We're just not there yet. And actually, we may never be completely. And I think even though we're all just sort of over this virus, it's not over us, unfortunately.

VAUSE: Yes, be flexible, I guess is the key to all of this at the moment. Dr. Shoshana Ungerleider, good to see you. Thank you so much.

UNGERLEIDER: Thank you, John.

VAUSE: Naftali Bennett is now the first Israeli Prime Minister to make an official visit to Bahrain. This hour, he'll hold talks with the local Jewish community before meeting with Bahrain's Crown Prince and the Prime Minister.

This latest sign of cooperation between Israel and Gulf States is due in part to mutual concerns over Iran.

Earlier this month, Israel and Bahrain agreed to formalize defense relations. Israel has stepped up cooperation with Gulf States after Iran backed Houthi rebels in Yemen fired missiles at the UAE.

Well, for close to a decade, Turkey and the UAE have been on the opposing sides of almost every regional conflict. Turkey accused the UAE of bankrolling the failed coup attempt on Recep Tayyip Erdogan in 2016. But now, clearly relations are on the mend. CNN's Jomana Karadsheh reports President Erdogan met Monday with the

Emirati Crown Prince. The two leaders signing more than a dozen agreements on trade, climate change and defense.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOMANA KARADSHEH, CNN CORRESPONDENT (on camera): The Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan arrived here in Abu Dhabi on Monday, and he got a royal welcome from the country's de facto ruler, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed.

Now, just six months ago, this would have been unthinkable. These two countries have been rivals for the most part of the past decades. Ideological differences, divergent interests, it pitted them against each other in conflicts and crises from the Eastern Mediterranean to East Africa, and it played out so dangerously in Libya's proxy war where they backed two different sides.

Now, we can't look at this reset in the relationship without looking at what's been going on in this region as a whole where major powers in this region seem to be recalibrating their foreign policies that is driven by so many different factors, arguably, this perception of U.S. disengagement in the region, making these different powers in the Middle East reached out to foes and neighbors alike trying to mend ties and prioritizing their own interests.

At the hearts of this shift and change really is the economy. And we have heard this both from the UAE and from Turkey.

Last year, the UAE announcing this U-turn in its foreign policy, saying that economic interests are going to be at the heart of its foreign policy.

And for Turkey, this is very much about the economy. President Erdogan has been talking about all these different agreements that they're going to be signing with the UAE, the UAE investments that are going to be coming to Turkey on Monday.

Turkey saying that they have signed a dozen or so trade agreements with the UAE ranging from security defense to agriculture.

For President Erdogan, he really needs to turn around his country's economy before the country goes to the polls next year. And he believes with the support, investment and money coming in from Gulf states like the UAE, he is going to be able to deliver that.

Jomana Karadsheh, CNN, Abu Dhabi.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

VAUSE: Still to come here on CNN, it's one-way traffic it seems with the Russian military heading towards the border with Ukraine. But here's the big question, what are the plans that Moscow has for all of this hardware and all those tracks, the latest from Ukraine in a moment.

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HOLMES: Welcome back, everyone. I'm Michael Holmes in Lyiv in Ukraine with more on our top story this hour.

[00:31:39]

Officials in the U.S. appear more alarmed than ever that Russia could attack Ukraine at any moment. Even as Moscow says a diplomatic solution is still very much on the table.

On Monday, the U.S. announced it is closing its embassy in Kyiv and moving any remaining staff further west to Lyiv where I am right now.

Now, it comes as American intelligence officials warn Russian forces are, quote, "clearly advancing their ability to invade." Now, that's a sharp contrast, of course, to the scenes playing out in Moscow on Monday, where foreign minister Sergey Lavrov told Russian President Vladimir Putin that he still sees a diplomatic path forward.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SERGEY LAVROV, RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTER (through translator): If we are ready to listen to some counter proposals, it seems to me that our possibilities are far from being exhausted. Of course, this should not continue indefinitely, but at this stage, I would suggest that they be continued and increased.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: Meanwhile, the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, is expected to arrive in Moscow in the coming hours, after meeting with the Ukrainian president, Vladimir Zelensky, on Monday.

Now, Mr. Zelensky is still urging calm in the face of the threat, calling for a day of unity on Wednesday, the date that some have warned Russia could attack.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

VOLODYMYR ZELENSKY, PRESIDENT OF UKRAINE (through translator): We have been told that February 16 will be the day of the attack. But we will make it the day of unity. I have already signed a respective decree. On this day, we will hang national flags, put on yellow and blue ribbons and show our unity to the world.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: Although President Zelensky has been skeptical of western predictions of imminent attack, is the massing of troops and equipment are impossible to ignore, of course. The military's movement visible all over social media.

And as CNN's Scott McLean reports, while their locations are known, their plans are not.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) SCOTT MCLEAN, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Russian military convoys continue to head in one direction, the border with Ukraine. This one, in the Belgrade region, just across the border from Kharkiv, the largest city in the eastern part of Ukraine, geolocated by CNN here.

CNN has been able to independently verify all of these movements, captured by amateur videographers in Russia, and posted to social media. Tanks were seen around the village of Seratano (ph), around ten miles from the border.

By most estimates, Russia has about 100 battalion tactical groups close to Ukraine. Russian forces are also moving at night in the area. In this case, tanks have just been off-loaded from trains.

Among the wide variety of Russian hardware being moving forward, Islander-M short-range ballistic missiles. U.S. intelligence expects that any offensive would begin with an intense aerial bombardment, which would include missile attacks on key infrastructure.

There are still convoys making their way south. This one spotted taking a break on the highway south from Corsica (ph) towards the border. Later, the same unit is stopped again. Russian troops are trying to stay as dry and as warm as possible, with a growing number of tent encampments set up. Where and when they move next, still very much an unknown.

Scott McLean, CNN, London.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

[00:35:14]

HOLMES: Now with Russian troops surrounding Ukraine on three sides, one other questions remains. If Russia decides to invade, what would that look like? And what is likely to happen? Where is it likely to happen?

CNN military analyst and retired U.S. Army major general, James "Spider" Marks, shared his insights earlier.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JAMES "SPIDER" MARKS, CNN MILITARY ANALYST: If Russia invades, Kyiv is right here. I do not think Putin is going to use these forces and invade Kyiv.

If he were to create rubble and try to control Kyiv, he doesn't want to do that. Because he would have to rebuild it. He doesn't have an economy that can accommodate that.

And also, these forces here would have to go through the Chernobyl exclusion zone, the world's worst nuclear disaster, back in 1986. I don't know that he wants to push these forces through that nightmare, if you will. But what I think is going to happen is he could take forces, and take

it here, increase his presence in the Donbass, and then extend to the Dnieper River down here. And then he creates. They now connect Crimea with a land bridge to the rest of Russia. And I think that is the objective that he is going after.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: Retired Major General James "Spider" Marks there, sharing his take on the situation.

I'm Michael Holmes in Lyiv. I'll have much more from Ukraine coming up in our next hour, but for now, I'll toss it back to John and Atlanta -- John.

VAUSE: Michael, thank you. See you again soon. We'll take a short break for the meantime here on CNN NEWSROOM.

An extreme winter drought has revealed a long lost village in Portugal. It's one example of how climate change is taking a toll on the Iberian Peninsula.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

VAUSE: An investigation is now underway in southern France after an explosion left at least seven people dead, including two children. About 30 others were hurt in the blast, which sent fire raging through a three-story building overnight Monday.

The French interior minister called it an historic tragedy for the region. Investigators suspect gas cylinders may have played a role.

The normally wet winter months in Spain and Portugal have given way to the second driest January in more than two decades. One of the region's worst droughts in years has seen water levels in many towns (ph) plummet. At one reservoir in Portugal, a long-abandoned village has been revealed, 70 years after it was submerged.

Meteorologist Tom Sater has our report.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

TOM SATER, CNN METEOROLOGIST (voice-over): On the border of Spain and Portugal, a village swallowed by the Iziri River in 1992 to make way for a reservoir has now emerged as a ghost.

Visitors walking on the muddy ground cracked by drought, found partially collapsed roofs, bricks and wooden debris that once made up doors or beams.

[00:40:09]

Over the years, onlookers were able to see the village peeking out of the water during drought season. But the extreme drought this year has revealed the village in its entirety. The Iberian Peninsula, home to Portugal and Spain, is experiencing one

of the driest winters on record, which is draining out reservoirs, worrying farmers and residents.

Official records show Spain received only a quarter of the precipitation it normally gets in January. And water reserves are now only less than half their capacity.

RUBEN DEL CAMPO, SPOKESPERSON, SPANISH METEOROLOGY AGENCY (through translator): If in these months, when it should be raining the most, it is not raining, than the reserves don't refill. Also, their capacity, their water quantity will continue to drop, and that could be quite worrying for the future.

SATER: In neighboring Portugal, drone footage shows boats docked along dry banks as river waters recede.

Earlier this month, Portugal ordered five of its hydropower dams to halt water use for electricity production to save enough for people's daily use.

Antonio Estevao is one of the farmers who is struggling to feed his livestock. Many are worried their crops for the season will be ruined.

ANTONIO ESTEVAO, CHEESE MAKER AND BEEKEEPER (through translator): it is simple. There is no water, so the grass does not grow. I only water a very small there, but only once a week, because the water sources have very little flow, very weak. Here on this whole area that is not watered, nothing grows. Nothing grows, and therefore, the animals eat little.

SATER: Parts of Spain and Portugal sit in a semi-arid zone, historically prone to drought, but an environmental specialist descries the severity of the recent dry spells as one of the most serious consequences of climate change.

Tom Sater, CNN.

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VAUSE: The wife of Britain's Prince Charles, Camilla, has tested positive for COVID. A statement from Clarence House Monday offered few other details, apart from the Duchess of Cornwall is now self- isolating.

Charles tested positive for COVID-19 for the second time last week, but Charles and Camilla have been fully vaccinated including booster shots.

The U.S. is suspending avocado imports from Mexico after the U.S. Department of Agriculture says one of its officers were threatened by phone during an inspection.

This happened in the Mexican state of Michoacan, which has been a hotbed for drug cartel violence. The USDA says the suspension will last as long as it takes to control the safety of personnel. Mexico's president, though, is slamming the decision.

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ANDRES MANUEL LOPEZ OBRADOR, MEXICAN PRESIDENT (through translator): There are also many economic and political interests. There is competition. They do not want the Mexican avocado to enter the United States, or to prevail, because of its quality.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

VAUSE: Even if this disruption to the supply chain is short, it could still lead to higher prices for Americans for avocados, who are already seeing price increases because of high inflation.

Thank you for watching CNN NEWSROOM. I'm John Vause. Please stay with us. WORLD SPORT with Patrick Snell after a very short break. I hope to see you at the top of the hour.

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