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U.S. Warns of Possible Russian Attack; Ukrainians Ready to Defend Their Sovereignty; IOC Gives Green Light to Kamila Valieva; P.M. Justin Trudeau Invoke Decades' Old Law. Aired 3-4a ET

Aired February 15, 2022 - 03:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[03:00:00]

ROSEMARY CHURCH, CNN ANCHOR (on camera): -- tales to the ice in Beijing even though she tested positive for a banned substance. The fallout from this Olympic size doping scandal ahead on CNN Newsroom.

UNKNOWN: Live from CNN center, this is CNN Newsroom with Rosemary Church.

CHURCH: The U.S. is delivering some of its most urging earnings yet, that Russia could invade Ukraine at any times. But in Moscow there is new hope for a diplomatic solution. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov says there is a chance for the dialogue with the west. And the Kremlin spokesman claims, Vladimir Putin has always been willing to negotiate.

German chancellor Olaf Scholz is headed to Moscow after a stop in Kyiv. Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky is calling for a day of unity on Wednesday, and says his country still wants to join NATO.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

VOLODYMYR ZELENSKY, PRESIDENT OF UKRAINE (through translator): The Ukrainian Russian border is an unprecedented challenge to Europe and globally. That's why we had to strengthen our defense capabilities which had to guarantee security in Europe. I also reiterated that without Ukraine, it is impossible to shape security in Europe.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CHURCH (on camera): U.S. officials tells CNN intelligence shows Russia is clearly advancing its ability to invade Ukraine. One source says an attack on Ukraine sometime this week is more likely than not.

A new satellite images show at least 60 Russian attack and transport helicopters have arrived at a military base in Crimea. The U.S. has temporarily closed its embassy in Kyiv moving staff to Lviv in western Ukraine. It's also telling Americans to leave both Ukraine and Belarus immediately.

And CNN's Michael Holmes is following all the latest developments live this hour from Lviv in Ukraine. Michael? MICHAEL HOLMES, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Thank you very much,

Rosemary. It's sort of an unsettling sort of, feeling in Ukraine on the streets. You've got people who are concerned but they're not -- they're not frightened. And they are not anywhere close to panicking. But they are concerned, and why wouldn't you be with what's going on along their borders.

Let's go live now to CNN's Fred Pleitgen in Moscow, where the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, is expected to arrive soon. So, all the military action and maneuvering, Fred, but diplomacy is not off the cards, as you heard from the Russian spokesman direct.

FREDERIK PLEITGEN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: You're absolutely right, Michael. And it's not off the cards to actually seems to be kicking into high gear with Olaf Scholz is set to arrive here, actually pretty much right now. He is set to land at 11 a.m. local time here in Moscow.

And of course, that's -- it's a pretty important diplomatic mission that he's on. At the same time the Russians seem to be signaling that they are in favor of diplomacy and they want diplomacy to continue. I had the Russian government spokesman, a spokesperson for the Kremlin, Dmitry Peskov late last night he told me that Vladimir Putin has always wanted a diplomatic solution, that he has always been for diplomacy.

And one of the interest -- other interesting things that he said, Michael, he said for the Russians, Ukraine is only one of several problems that they have with this current security structure in Europe, and certainly a wider discussion that they want to have with the United States. But of course, also in other formats as well.

So, the Russians certainly signaling that they want all these talks to continue. It's really interesting yesterday also, there was a meeting between Sergey Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister and the Russian President Vladimir Putin were on the cameras.

Vladimir Putin asked Sergey Lavrov is there a chance for talks and for diplomacy, and Lavrov said that he did believe that there was still a chance, especially with some of the meetings that have been already taking place like, for instance, the call between Vladimir Putin and the U.S. President Joe Biden that took place this weekend.

But then also, with this visit by Olaf Scholz that's happening today, the Germans of course a key role in all of this because of very close ties to Russia, close economic ties to Russia, and also the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, as well. Which is obviously, quite controversial internationally but at the same time, also, does, for better or worse, really bind these countries in the crisis that's currently going on. Michael?

HOLMES: All right. Great to have that report. Fred Pleitgen in Moscow, I appreciate it.

Now Taras Berezovets, is a Ukrainian political analyst, he joins me now live from Kyiv. And thank you so much for being with us. So, you know, you got these exercises in Belarus, the increased

activity in the Black Sea. Some people have called Putin's actions calculated brinkmanship. But how do you see it? Do you see it that way in terms of what he might do? And the risks of miscalculation or misunderstanding?

TARAS BEREZOVETS, UKRAINIAN POLITICAL ANALYST: Yes. Good morning, Michael. I think the problem with Vladimir Putin that he is sending mixed signals to the wall.

[03:05:02]

On the one hand, he meets yesterday with Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, and Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu and saying that there is still a room for diplomacy. But on the other hand, we see these military drills continuing on our border, I mean, not only territorial, Belorussia also territorial. Transnistria occupy Crimea and others. Not to mention Russian navy blocking Ukrainian sea ports.

And I think that the goal which Mr. Putin is bashing in this game is actually, is to get to victory without military action. He wants to get concessions from Ukraine. He wants to get concessions from the United States, and NATO without attacking Ukraine. And I think that this diplomacy of Mr. Putin seems to be quite successful.

HOLMES: Yes. Yes. We heard the Ukrainian president make it clear, very clear that he still wants Ukraine to be in NATO. His words were, yes, we would like to join NATO as it will protect our integrity. And that is a key issue here. But what does Mr. Putin think when he hears a comment like that? Is it helpful at this time?

BEREZOVETS: It's very good question, Michael. You are absolutely right. Yesterday, the Ukrainian Ambassador to Great Britain, Vadym Prystaiko, former foreign minister, made comments in BBC five live stating that Ukraine may drop NATO membership. And this might work to find any sort of compromise with Russia.

But the problem with Mr. Putin he does not accept that sort of concessions. I believe that Mr. Putin and his henchmen behaving within a subculture of St. Petersburg of 1990s where they would like to intimidate and humiliate their partners. And only after that they sit on the table of negotiations.

And I think from this, from this perspective any concession made by Ukrainians like dropping NATO perspective would not help to compromise with Mr. Putin at all. We should only mean to Mr. Putin that Ukraine and west a week. From this point, Mr. Putin will push massively (Ph) against Ukraine.

And in terms of military actions if you are asking, it wouldn't stop any military action. He can -- he can actually withdraw this time, he can do this in March, but the problem there would be next build up, and build ups more, and more even by the of this year.

HOLMES: Yes. And I want to ask you, you know, about Putin's fundamental complain and that is NATO encroachment towards Russia's borders. You know, when you think about it, the United States wouldn't want an adversarial military alliance near its borders.

I wonder what are Ukraine's -- Ukrainians think about Putin's position? I mean, does he have a point about NATO getting close to Russia?

BEREZOVETS: According to the Ukrainian polls, 81 percent of Ukrainians have negative attitudes about Mr. Putin. These polls were conducted by the end of 2021. The majority of Ukrainians are definitely in favor of joining NATO. As you might know, the Ukrainian parliament made amendments to the Ukrainian Constitution. And now Ukraine is seeking NATO and European membership.

I think, actually, if we're talking about Mr. Putin's fears of Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, and other former Soviet republics joining NATO, these are basically the same fears which communist leaders used to express in the 1980s, then they said that there was going to be classes of civilizations.

The Soviet bloc and so-called NATO are the western block. The problem with Vladimir Putin that his rhetoric actually stuck like in the period of 30 years. Because the world has changed, Central and European countries like Poland and Czech Republic, and Baltic states, they are enjoying their life within European Union and being NATO members.

And of course, Ukraine at some point would be also a NATO member. But for Vladimir Putin this would be very, I would say, very harmful to even think about the possibility of that Ukraine. The country which he says what he denies the right of Ukrainian people to be a separate nation.

HOLMES: Yes.

BEREZOVETS: So, for Vladimir Putin, the whole perspective of Ukraine joining NATO seems to be a nightmare.

HOLMES: We are almost out of time, but I wanted to ask you this. I mean, taking a country in a purely military sense, when you have a superior, huge, and capable military, that's not the hard part. But as the Russian saw in Afghanistan, and the American certainly did in Iraq, the taking isn't the same as the holding of territory when there is a hostile population almost certainly an insurgency.

[03:10:05]

How do you think the Ukrainians would react to Russians occupying?

BEREZOVETS: They would react with fierce opposition. They would fight for our country and they would fight with their freedom. Because these are actually the values which Ukrainians are dying for. I can remind you only that we are in a state of war, undeclared state of war, of course, with Russia for the last eight years.

And since then, more than 14,000 Ukrainians both civilians and military personnel have been killed by Russians and their proxies in Donbas. So, it doesn't change anything. Ukrainians are ready to meet Vladimir Putin and his horse here on the territory of Ukraine.

I think that President Putin and his ally Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus underestimate the fact that in case if this war starts, it will end in definitely the defeat of Vladimir Putin at some stage -- at some stage. You can also affect civil unrest in Russia or you want civil war.

HOLMES: Right. Right. Great analysis. Taras Berezovets in Kyiv, thank you so much. I appreciate that.

BEREZOVETS: My pleasure.

HOLMES: And I will be back with much more from Lviv at the bottom of the hour. But first, let's throw back to Rosemary Church in Atlanta at the CNN center with a look at the other news. Rosie?

CHURCH: Well, just a few hours left until a controversial Russian figure skater Kamilla Valieva is set to compete in the women's single skating short program at the Beijing Olympics. The 15-year-old skater was cleared to compete after testing positive for a banned substance in December.

Investigations are still underway to determine whether Valieva can keep her first gold medal or any other she may earn at the Winter Games. The IOC is also looking into Russian coaches and officials who may have pressured her to take the drug.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DENIS OSWALD, MEMBER, IOC: Yes, of course, it's clearly a wish and a decision of the IOC, but also in the WADA to examine all aspects of this case. And, including the situation of the entourage of the girl. Because of course, you can imagine a girl whose 15 would not do something wrong alone. So, yes, the entourage will be investigated.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CHURCH (on camera): Well, the situation has sparked fierce debate and reaction from athletes and officials in the Olympic community. But some say Valieva's natural talent is too much to ignore. Here is one of her former coaches.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KSENIA IVANOVA, FORMER SKATING COACH TO KAMILA VALIEVA, (through translator): She is simply a prodigy in her abilities, her gift, and her work ethic. While she's a brilliant shine and talent, and hard work, and ability. That is, there is talent plus hard work, plus ability, plus desire.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CHURCH (on camera): CNN's Kristie Lu Stout is live in Hong Kong, with more on the doping scandal. But let's start with CNN's Coy wire, he joins us live from near Beijing. So, Coy, well the doping scandal has overshadowed the games, there is a lot of other action to report. So, what's been going on?

COY WIRE, CNN SPORTS ANCHOR: Yes, it was a big day of events, Rosemary. We were there to see the women's free ski slopestyle final, the highly anticipated second event for Eileen Gu at these Beijing games. And there's no question that she has absolutely captured the heart of the spectators.

Biggest crowd at the snow park I've seen thus far. Folks want to snap pictures and video, already haven't snap the gold medal for the host nation here in the big air competition. Gu put down another solid performance enough for silver to add to her medal haul. There are big cheers, especially when she flashed a big smile and hold the heart hands above her head on the big screen afterwards.

The 18-year-old phenom (Ph) has another opportunity to add a third medal in the free ski halfpipe competition still yet to come. The gold medal in this event went to Switzerland's Mathilde Gremaud rallying from being the lowest qualifying score to Olympic champ, having already won bronze at these games in the big air, and now adding to her silver from the slopestyle event four years ago. Mathilde now can hang an Olympic medal of every color back home.

Let's go to downhill. The women's downhill delayed to wind gusts of up to 40 kilometers per hour. But it was Switzerland showing, yet again, nobody is touching them on the open slopes. Swiss speedster Corinne Suter capturing her first-ever Olympic medal.

Suter is the only person to beat Italian legend Sofia Goggia in the downhill race over the last two seasons. This time, she beats the defending Olympic champ by 1,600 of a second for the gold. The 27- year-old overcame injuries that put her on crutches for about a month before returning the competition.

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In December, she said afterwards, Rosemary, this was the biggest dream of her life. Switzerland repeating their feet from 50 years ago, winning gold in both the women's and men's downhill events. And this is the first time ever that four different alpine skiers from one nation have won Olympic individual gold.

American superstar Mikaela Shiffrin finished 18th in this event, he first ever Olympic downhill competition.

Now finally, history made for the host nation China. Su Yiming winning gold in the men's snowboard big air three days before his 18th birthday, Rosemary. Su is the first Chinese snowboarder ever to win Olympic gold. He already won silver in the slopestyle competition earlier. Having to start and acted in movie and TV industries as a 14- year-old. Su decided to pursue his passion for snowboarding.

And Rosemary, clearly, his hopes of representing his nation one day, he took full advantage of that opportunity. He represents, Rosemary, the next generation of winter sport athletes from China where much of the 1.4 billion population have had no familiarity with winter sports at all.

China now has six gold medals at these Beijing Games. They're absolutely blowing away their performance from four years ago when they had just won. Rosemary?

CHURCH: Just incredible stuff. A lot of action going on. Thanks for that, Coy. So, Kristie, let's get back to Kamila Valieva's doping scandal. And of course, reaction from athletes and the rest of the world to the controversial decision to allow her to continue to compete at the games. So, what is being said about that?

KRISTIE LU STOUT, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes. Well, first, Rosemary, very interesting new development. The Russian figure skater Valieva is apparently saying that her positive drug test is due to a mix up with her grandfather's medication. This was according to an International Olympic Committee official who spoke to reporters on Tuesday.

Of course, it was on Friday when we heard from the international testing agency. They revealed that Valieva had failed that drugs test in December. She tested positive for a banned medication. A heart medicine that could be used to boost or enhance performance. But that drug test only came to light during Olympic competition in Beijing this last week.

Of course, it was on Monday we learned that Valieva has been cleared to compete. She is seen as a favorite to win the women's singles event. Due to take place just a couple of hours from now in Beijing. If she wins there will be no medal ceremony. But the fact that she's been cleared to compete has spark a lot of angry responses from Olympic athletes.

Let's bring up a few of those responses. Like this one from the American Tara Lipinski, she of course is the 1998 Olympic women's champion. She writes, I strongly disagree with this decision. At the end of the day, there was a positive test and there is no question in my mind that she should not be allowed to compete.

And then you have this from Kim Yuna of South Korea. She of course 2010 Olympic women's champion. She writes on Instagram, "athletes who violate doping cannot compete in the game. This principle must observed without exception. All players efforts and dreams are equally precious," end quote.

And finally, this from U.S. sprinter Sha'Carri Richardson who missed out on the 2020 Tokyo Olympics after she tested positive for cannabis. She writes, "can we just get a solid answer on the difference of her situation and mine?" End quote.

Rosemary, of course it was Monday when you heard from the court of arbitration, they decided that she was cleared to compete. They cited her age, saying that she's a minor, she's only 15 years old. Also, there were issues surrounding how the drug test was processed. And she's been cleared to compete. And she will hit the ice in just over five hours from now, about 9.52 p.m. local time in Beijing. Back to you.

CHURCH: Yes. A lot of angry athletes over this decision. Coy Wire, Kristie Lu Stout, many thanks to you both. I appreciate it.

Well, for the first time ever, Canada is invoking its decades' old Emergencies Act to try to end weeks of blockades and protests over COVID-19 mandates. Ahead, details on how that law would work.

[03:20:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CHURCH (on camera): Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has issued his most aggressive response yet to the so-called freedom convoy protest. Invoking the government's Emergencies Act for the first time ever to try to end more than two weeks of blockades and demonstrations. The law passed in 1988 can temporarily suspend people's freedom of movement or assembly. And allows authorities to go after those who financially support to protest. Here is more now from the prime minister.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JUSTIN TRUDEAU, PRIME MINISTER OF CANADA: This is about keeping Canadians safe, protecting people's jobs, and restoring confidence in our institutions.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CHURCH (on camera): Stephanie Carvin is an associate professor of international affairs at Carleton University. She joins me now from Toronto. Great to have you with us.

STEPHANIE CARVIN, ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS, CARLETON UNIVERSITY: Hey, thanks for having me on.

CHURCH: So, Canada's Prime Minister Trudeau has invoked rare emergency powers in an effort to break up the anti-vaccine trucker protest that have paralyzed Ottawa, and of course, clogged border crossings. What all do these powers allow the government to do and why wasn't this done earlier before these protests inspired others across the globe?

CARVIN: Well, these powers aren't just rare, they've actually never been used before. This was a legislation that was introduced in 1988 to really kind of update Canada's emergency law. And it was thought that perhaps early on in the pandemic, the federal government might have to use it in order to deal with some more measures. That was dealt with more of a local level.

So, this is really a very powerful tool. And I think the government was concerned about using it just from a civil liberties perspective. So, it allows the government to do a number of things. It basically is going to provide more resources to law enforcement. It can actually direct companies, like tow truck companies who have been reluctant to get involve in these convoys. To actually assist law enforcement in removing vehicles.

But the real powers that are coming with this are financial. It's going after some of the crowd funding sites. And basically, making them register with the Canadian government to prevent money laundering.

It also is going to potentially seize the assets, the bank accounts of people who were involved in these protests and it could cancel their driver's license and insurance. So, you know, these are some pretty sweeping powers. They are temporary measures, but they could have a serious impact on the lives of those who are, you know, camped out in Ottawa as we speak.

CHURCH: Yes. Of course. That is extensive, isn't it. Because just a few people have been arrested so far, and guns, body armor and a large quantity of ammunition have been seized at a border blockade in western Canada. So, there is some movement, but it has appeared very slow.

So, when will normalcy likely return to the U.S./Canada border crossing where protesters have blocked the supply chain for U.S. automakers and a whole lot of others.

CARVIN: That's still unknown. I mean, we have seen governments introduced legislation and, you know, use the emergency powers act more to local level in order to try and deal with these protests. But so far, the problem hasn't been one of the laws, it's been one of enforcement.

So, I think what's kind of interesting here is that, you know, the attempts, I think, is kind of an Al Capone approach. In the sense that, you know, with Al Capone, you didn't go after him for, you know, bootlegging or for murder or anything like that. They went after him on taxes.

So, I think what they are trying to do is to actually put a financial squeeze on people to try and get them to leave and basically impact their livelihoods rather than a big confrontation and series of arrests.

CHURCH: Yes.

CARVIN: We saw some success this weekend at the Ambassador Bridge in Windsor, Ontario which is responsible for a significant amount of trade between Canada and the United States.

[03:20:01]

It did, you know, the police went up to protesters explain the severity of the charges that they could be facing. And many of them chose to lead, instead of actually facing those charges.

CHURCH: And of course, these protesters grievances stem from Canada's new mandate that requires truck drivers to either be fully vaccinated or face a two-week quarantine if they want to cross the border. Now that only impacts about 10 percent of truck drivers, because the rest are fully vaccinated.

So how much support do these protesters actually have across the Canadian population and how much of this is about far-right political groups pushing their anti-vaccine message?

CARVIN: Right. I think it's important to remember that at the core of this protest, you know, it was never really about mandates in the first place. It's always been about a small group of people who called for a convoy, who holds very anti- government views, as well as kind of racist white supremacist views, conspiratorial world views.

They were able to frame their grievances around basically the issue of mandates and public health regulations that have been put in place now for two years. And that really took off because a lot of people are tired. But as this convoy goes on, the tactics being employed are less and less popular.

CHURCH: Yes, indeed. And Facebook has revealed that fake overseas accounts are fueling these trucker protests. And we are also learning that online activity in the U.S. is indicating that March 5th could prove to be a big day for protesters, pushing their anti-vaccine message and whatever the other grievances are. What more are you learning about that?

CARVIN: So, it doesn't surprise me that much that we have seen these Facebook accounts. You know, whenever there is a popular social media issue that's divisive, that really gets people riled up. You do see a number of these pages that form that are, you know, basically they are a kind of grift to find ways to make money of selling ads and things like this. So that doesn't surprise me.

It does however surprise me to the extent to which this is caught on international. I mean, and I think that international enthusiasm whether in the form of donations, whether in the form of social media support, has really given energy and moral comfort I think to this movement in particular.

That, you know, for, you know, Canada, let's face it. It's a little bit of a boring country. And I think these individuals in the convoy can see themselves at the forefront of a new kind of tactic to oppose government mandates or to perhaps express their anti-government views.

So yes. I think the international dimension here is really interesting. It could actually potentially reshape certain aspects of Canada/U.S. relations, particularly as it involves the funding of political movements, as opposed to political parties in Canada.

CHURCH: We will continue to watch the direction of all of this. Stephanie Carvin, many thanks for your analysis. I appreciate it.

CARVIN: Thank you for having me on.

CHURCH: And still ahead, Moscow signals it's still open to negotiations even as the U.S. warns Russian troops could attack Kyiv at any moment.

[03:30:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) HOLMES: And welcome back, everyone. I'm Michael Holmes here in Lviv, Ukraine in the west of the country with more on our top story this hour.

Officials in the U.S. appear more alarmed than ever that Russia could attack Ukraine at any moment. Even as Moscow says a diplomatic solution is still very much on the table. On Monday, the U.S. announced that it's closing its embassy in Kyiv and moving any remaining staff further west to Lviv where I am right now.

Now this comes as American intelligence officials warn Russian forces are, quote, "clearly advancing their ability to invade." Now that's a sharp contrast to the scene playing out in Moscow where Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told Russian President Vladimir Putin that he still sees a diplomatic path forward.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SERGEY LAVROV, RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTER (through translator): If we are ready to listen to some counter proposals it seems to me that our possibilities are far from being exhausted. Of course, they should not continue indefinitely, but at this stage, I would suggest that they'd be continued and increased.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: Meanwhile, the German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz is arriving in Moscow today after meeting with the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky on Monday. Now Mr. Zelensky is still urging calm and calling for a day of unity on Wednesday. The date some have warned Russian could attack.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

VOLODYMYR ZELENSKY, PRESIDENT OF UKRAINE (through translator): We have been told that February 16th will be the day of the attack. But we will make it the day of unity. I have already signed a respective decree. On this day, we would hang national flags, put on yellow and blue ribbons and show our unity to the world.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES (on camera): Although President Zelensky has been skeptical of western predictions of an imminent attack, the massing of troops and equipment, well, it's pretty impossible to ignore it, isn't it? The military's movement are visible all over social media for one.

And as CNN's Scott McLean reports for us now while their locations are known, their plans are not.

SCOTT MCLEAN, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice over): Russian military convoys continue to head in one direction. The border with Ukraine. This one in the Belgorod region just across the border from Kharkiv, the largest city in the eastern part of Ukraine. Geolocated by CNN here. CNN has been able to independently verify all of these movements captured by amateur videographers in Russia and posted to social media. Tanks were seen around the village of Sereteno around 10 miles from the border. By most estimates Russia has about 100 battalion tactical groups close to Ukraine. Russian forces are also moving at night in the area, in this case, tanks have just been off-loaded from trains.

Among the wide variety of Russian hardware being moved forward Iskander-M short-range ballistic missiles. U.S. intelligence expects that any offensive would begin with an intense aerial bombardment which would include missile attacks on key infrastructure. There are still convoys making their way south. This one spotted taking a break on the highway south from course toward the border. And later the same unit is stopped again.

Russian troops are trying to stay as dry and as warm as possible. With a growing number of tent encampment set up. Where and when they move next still very much an unknown.

Scott McLean, CNN, London.

HOLMES: Now, I spoke earlier with Robert English, he is the director of Central European studies at the University of Southern California. And I asked him if Vladimir Putin would invest this much effort move so many troops and material and then, would he back down?

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ROBERT ENGLISH, DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL EUROPEAN STUDIES, UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA: That is a risk. Right? That's why some diplomats in the west want to hold firm to the essence of the western position but give him an off-ramp. A way to retreat that save space and that simply means that finding compromise on not a promise that Ukraine will never join NATO, but instead, that NATO would restrict certain deployments of missiles and troops in the eastern zones closest to Russia.

[03:35:04]

Other kinds of confidence built -- building members and maybe a resumption of that Minks process on autonomy and a resolution of the Donetsk issue in the east. Those kinds of small breakthroughs would add up, probably, to enough for Putin to back off save face and claim that he'd achieved a victory for Russian security.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES (on camera): Ukraine's president has steadfastly projected calm during this entire military buildup. On Monday, the president, Volodymyr Zelensky sent out a Valentine's message with his wife. In the Facebook he admitted making the video wasn't easy but the couple wanted to show they are together at home and in Ukraine. His wife adding, they both love Ukraine.

I'm Michael Holmes in Lviv in the western part of Ukraine. Much more from Ukraine coming up in our next hour. But for now, I'll toss it back to Rosemary Church in Atlanta.

ROSEMARY CHURCH, CNN ANCHOR: All right. Great job, Michael. Good to see you.

And still to come, Naftali Bennett is making history holding meetings with leaders in Bahrain during an official visit. We are live in the capital. That's next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CHURCH (on camera): Naftali Bennett is now the first Israeli prime minister to make an official visit to Bahrain. He is scheduled to meet with Bahrain's crown prince and prime minister next hour. This latest sign of cooperation is due in part to mutual concerns about Iran.

CNN's Hadas Gold reports now from the capital Manama.

HADAS GOLD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Rosemary, I think most Israelis wouldn't have imagined just a few years ago than Israeli prime minister would be welcomed to the capital of Bahrain with a full honor guard with the Israeli flag flying alongside the Bahraini flag. But that's what's been happening now.

This is the first visit by an Israeli prime minister since the two countries signed those normalization agreements in 2020. It's a short trip, just about 24 hours long, and in just a few hours he will meet with the crown prince and the prime minister, as well as with the king of Bahrain. But top (Inaudible) in these meetings will likely be Iran. Just 200 kilometers away from where we are standing. A shared security concern between the two countries.

Now although Bahrain is small it is a significant player in the region. It hosts the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet and soon it will also help an Israeli military officer. And this will be the first time that an Arab country will have an Israeli military officer posted.

Now earlier this month the Israeli defense minister Benny Gantz was here as well for his first visit. And he formalized security agreements between the two countries that paved the way for increased cooperation between their two militaries. But most importantly, could pave the way forward for Bahrain to potentially at one point purchase Israeli air defense systems like their Iron Dome. Rosemary?

[03:40:01]

CHURCH: Well, Turkey's president has traveled to Abu Dhabi for his first official visit to the UAE in nearly a decade. Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with the crown prince on Monday as the two countries look to boost relations and economic cooperation.

CNN's Jomana Karadsheh has the details now from Abu Dhabi.

JOMANA KARADSHEH, CNN CORRESPONDENT: The Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan arrived here in Abu Dhabi on Monday. And he got a royal welcome from the country's de facto ruler Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed. Now, just six months ago, this would've been unthinkable. These two countries have been rivals for the most part of the past

decade, ideological differences, divergent interests, it pitted them against each other in conflicts and crises from the eastern Mediterranean to East Africa. And it played out so dangerously in Libya's proxy war where they backed two different sides.

Now we can't look at this reset in the relationship without looking at what's been going on in this region as a whole where major powers in this region seem to be recalibrating their foreign policies. That is driven by so many different factors arguably this perception of U.S. disengagement in the region. Making these different powers in the Middle East reach out to foes and neighbors alike trying to mend ties and prioritizing their own interests.

At the heart of the shift and change really is the economy. And we have heard this both from the UAE and from Turkey last year. The UAE announcing this U-turn in its foreign policy saying that economic interests are going to be at the heart of its foreign policy.

And for Turkey, this is very much about the economy. President Erdogan has been talking about all these different agreements that they're going to be siding with the UAE. The UAE investments that are going to be coming to Turkey. On Monday, Turkey saying that they have signed a dozen or so trade agreements with the UAE, ranging from security, defense, to agriculture.

For President Erdogan he really needs to turn around his country's economy before the country goes to the polls next year. And he believes with the support, investment, and money coming in from Gulf states like the UAE he is going to be able to deliver that.

Jomana Karadsheh, CNN, Abu Dhabi.

CHURCH: And new this hour, tennis star Novak Djokovic says he would be willing to miss the next two Grand Slam tournaments over his COVID vaccine stance. His comments come about a month after he lost his visa challenge and a chance to play in the years' first major the Australian Open.

In an exclusive interview with the BBC, Djokovic who is not vaccinated for COVID, says he is not against vaccinations but understands the consequences of choosing not to get the shot. Listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

NOVAK DJOKOVIC, MEN'S WORLD NUMBER 1 TENNIS PLAYER: And I understand that not being vaccinated today, you know, I am unable to travel to most of the tournaments at the moment.

UNKNOWN: And that's the price you're willing to pay?

DJOKOVIC: That is the price that I'm willing to pay.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CHURCH (on camera): This now means the world number one could miss out on both the French Open and Wimbledon later this year.

And thank you so much for joining us. I'm Rosemary Church. World Sport is up next with Patrick Snell. Then Isa Soares in London and Michael Holmes in Lviv, Ukraine will have more news from around the world in about 15 minutes. You are watching CNN.

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