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Biden Convinced Putin Plans to Invade Ukraine; U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris Pledges Support at Munich Security Conference; Donbas Leaders Urge Residents to Evacuate to Russia; Olympic Figure Skating Body to Vote on Raising Minimum Competition Age; Flooding in Brazil. Aired 12-12:30a ET
Aired February 19, 2022 - 00:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
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MICHAEL HOLMES, CNN ANCHOR (voice-over): Hello, everyone, I'm Michael Holmes, coming to you live from Ukraine. The U.S. President, making things crystal clear, saying Russian president, Vladimir Putin, has made a decision on Ukraine. But also saying, diplomacy is still on the table.
LYNDA KINKADE, CNN ANCHOR (voice-over): Hello, I'm Lynda Kinkade, live from CNN's world headquarters in Atlanta.
The International Skating Union, considering raising the minimum age of competitors, after the intense scrutiny of a 15-year-old Russian, who failed a drug test before the Beijing games.
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HOLMES: Welcome, everyone, to Lviv, in Western Ukraine.
President Biden saying he is convinced the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, has decided to invade Ukraine. Mr. Biden, adding, the attack likely will come in a matter of days and will target Ukraine's capital, Kyiv.
Friday's comments, marking the first time that the White House has said, definitively, that they believe that Mr. Putin has made his decision. In the past few hours, Moscow responded, categorically, denying, Russia is planning an attack on Ukraine.
That is according to Russian state media. And the Russian foreign ministry, also suggesting, the U.S. are ignoring escalating conflicts in the Donbas. That is in the eastern part of the country.
All of this, coming as Putin prepares for what could be Russia's most dramatic show of force yet, a series of military drills on Saturday, where ballistic missiles and cruise missiles will be launched.
In this video you can see, from the Russian defense ministry, drills in Belarus, earlier this month. Meanwhile, new satellite images just show just how quickly Russian
helicopter forces are massing near Ukraine's eastern border as well as Russian-held Crimea. One U.S. Defense official, telling CNN, nearly half of Russia's forces, around Ukraine, are now in what they describe, as an attack position.
Despite those warnings, the U.S. emphasizing that a diplomatic solution remains on the table, at least for now. CNN's Phil Mattingly, reporting from Washington.
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QUESTION: You are convinced that President Putin is going to invade Ukraine, is that what you just said a few moments ago?
JOE BIDEN (D), PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Yes, I did.
PHIL MATTINGLY, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): A dramatic statement, for a world on the brink.
BIDEN: As of this moment, I'm convinced he's made the decision. We have reason to believe that.
MATTINGLY (voice-over): President Biden, with a significant shift and a declaration that U.S. officials have been unwilling to make, until now provide the clearest window into the plans for a Russian invasion of Ukraine. U.S. officials now see, as imminent.
BIDEN: We have reason to believe the Russian forces are planning to and intend to, attack Ukraine in the coming week, in the coming days. We believe that they will target Ukraine's capital, Kyiv.
MATTINGLY: Biden's remarks coming after a dramatic 24 hours of U.S. officials, across the globe calling Russian troop drawdown pronouncements a facade. An explicit strategy to reveal alleged Russian intentions in advance, one Biden made a point to underscore.
BIDEN: We are calling out Russia's plans loudly and repeatedly, not because we want a conflict but because we're doing everything in our power to remove any reason that Russia may give to justify invading Ukraine.
MATTINGLY (voice-over): And less than an hour after completing a call with key transatlantic leaders, ratcheting up the potential repercussions for Russian action.
BIDEN: The West is united and resolved. We are ready to impose severe sanction on Russia if it further invades Ukraine.
MATTINGLY (voice-over): Still, Biden continuing to emphasize that a diplomatic pathway, even as it narrows by the day, still exists...
BIDEN: Russia can still choose diplomacy. It is not too late to de- escalate and return to the negotiating table. MATTINGLY (voice-over): -- while also warning of the stakes, not just
for the Ukrainian people but for the entire world.
BIDEN: The entire free world is united. Russia has a choice between war and all the suffering it will bring or diplomacy that will make a future safer for everyone.
MATTINGLY (voice-over): All coming as Vice President Kamala Harris took center stage at the Munich Security Conference, pledging U.S. support and solidarity for Baltic nations.
KAMALA HARRIS (D), VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We stand with you. I am here personally to say that. We stand with you on this and many other issues.
MATTINGLY (voice-over): And even with U.S. officials, keenly aware, there is little they can do to stop an attack if Putin decides to launch, a belief that the unity among Western allies and the consequences they plan to impose on Russia, will prevail in the long term.
ANTONY BLINKEN, U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE: When we're acting in unison, I will take our side anytime.
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MATTINGLY: And it is clear, tensions have reached their highest point, with U.S. officials concerned an invasion could happen in the coming days. But everybody right now keyed on one day in particular, February 24th. It's six days from the moment the president laid out his remarks, laid out that dire warning.
That is when secretary of state Antony Blinken is expected to meet with his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov. Now if that takes place, it is a signal, officials say, that diplomacy still has a possibility, still is an open doorway.
If it does not, President Biden making clear, that the diplomatic path the door would be slammed shut. Russian will have chosen war -- Phil Mattingly, CNN, the White House.
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HOLMES: Now it's unclear whether or not Ukraine's president will soon join Western leaders at the Munich Security Conference. A senior Ukrainian official, telling CNN, that Volodymyr Zelensky is still planning on attending but that the security situation will be reassessed this morning.
U.S. officials are privately, urging him to not leave Ukraine, fearing that Russia could falsely claim he has fled the country.
Now several leaders will speak at the Munich Conference in the coming hours, including the NATO secretary general, the European Commission president and Vice President of the United States. Kamala Harris. We're bringing it all to you, live when it happens. Now Germany's foreign minister set the tone for conference on Friday.
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ANNALENA BAERBOCK, GERMAN FOREIGN MINISTER (through translator): We have to be very careful about the way we frame this crisis. This crisis is not a Ukraine crisis; it is a Russia crisis.
We, therefore, urge Russia to withdraw its troops immediately. The first signals toward this and we have seen this again and again, in recent weeks and days, the first signals were a glimmer of hope. But we must now also see actions, not just words, because the Russian threat remains a real one.
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HOLMES: Eastern Ukraine seeing an increase in fighting, with Ukrainian officials and pro Russian separatists accusing each other of shelling civilian areas. CNN's Clarissa Ward, picking up that part of the story.
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CLARISSA WARD, CNN CHIEF INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The not so distant thud of shelling echoes through the city of Donetsk, its origin unknown.
Hours later, a jeep ablaze after an alleged bombing. The separatists say the vehicle belonged to the head of Donbas security. The Ukrainians say it's a staged provocation. The leader of the breakaway region claims that a full- fledged Ukrainian offensive is imminent.
DENIS PUSHILIN, DONETSK PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC: The armed forces of the enemy are in combat formations and are ready for the forceful capture of Donbas. The president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, will soon give an order to military to go on the offensive and a plan to invade the territory of the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics.
WARD: It turns out he recorded the video two days ago. It's unclear why it was released now. He urges civilians to leave to escape the onslaught.
And within a few minutes, a video shows children lined up outside an orphanage allegedly to be whisked away to safety in Russia. It all looks very choreograph and as with so much in this crisis very unclear.
The Russian defense ministry says some units are going back to their bases after exercises but evidence on the ground appears to show at least some Russian armor is heading toward Ukraine. This rail convoy of tanks, geolocated by CNN, just miles from the border near the city of Belgorod.
But for now, the Ukrainians are focused less on the border and more on the self-declared republics in the east, worried they will be used to stage some provocation by Russia. OLEKSIY DANILOV, SECRETARY, NATIONAL SECURITY AND DEFENSE COUNCIL, UKRAINE: There's a great danger that the representatives of the Russian Federation who are there will provoke some certain things. They could do things that have nothing to do with our military.
WARD (voice-over): Clarissa Ward, CNN, Kyiv.
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HOLMES: For more now, let's bring in CNN military analyst and retired Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling.
Good to see you, Mark.
What do you make of the leaders in the breakaway regions in the Donbas, calling on residents to leave and head to Russia, because of what those leaders call preparations by Ukraine to attack, which Ukraine, of course, strongly denies?
What is your read on that, at a time when there is so much talk about false flag operations and disinformation?
LT. GEN. MARK HERTLING, CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Well, as Clarissa reported, Michael, you saw those recordings being made on Wednesday. They believe that they can offer this as proof that they are protecting the citizens of their two breakaway republics, that are led by, truthfully, the Russians, not those independent actors.
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HERTLING: It is a continual indicator that all of these things are propaganda, they are misinformation, disinformation and using the Russian term maskirovka. It is part of all of their tactical, operational and strategic approaches when they use these kinds of deception efforts to try and execute their war plans and their campaign plans.
HOLMES: Yes, and the question, of course, whether it will be that false flag situation, giving Moscow an excuse to come in. I wanted to ask you this, because in the event of an invasion, you, of course, have spent a long time commanding forces in Iraq. You worked there with the Ukrainian military then.
How has the military changed over the years, in terms of not just equipment but capability?
HERTLING: Michael, first of all, it's a great question. In 2003-04, when I was in Iraq as an assistant division commander, we were asked to head south during the Sadr revolt. We linked up with Ukrainian forces and, truthfully, they were the most disorganized, dysfunctional, undisciplined and corrupt forces I had ever seen.
I drew an initial bias against Ukrainian forces. They were terribly led by their generals their colonels and it was just a force we could not depend on. They are actually coordinating with some of the enemy in Iraq, because they were being paid to be there. Over the years, though, when I continued to serve in Europe, we saw
the leadership within Ukraine, attempting to build a more professional force. And starting in about the 2008 timeframe, they really got serious.
There was a colonel general by the name of Robyov, who was the chief of the land forces. And he put a great deal of effort into turning his military into a professional force.
But he told me, one time, when we were having a session, that the biggest concern he had was the corruption of the senior leaders that had all been trained in the old Soviet Union.
He said, once we disavow those individuals and they left, we would have a much stronger army. Starting, literally, after I retired, I went back there in 2016, after the Maidan and spoke to a lot of the young officers.
They were extremely professional. They had started a professional non- commissioned officers corps. And we saw a true change in the Ukrainian force after two years of fighting.
You are talking eight years later; those young captains and lieutenants, who were part of the force in the Donbas early on, are now the lieutenant colonels and the colonels.
There are still problems at the senior ranks but those have mostly been eliminated. You have a very patriotic force in the Ukrainian army, and you have a much more patriotic parliament and prime ministers within the Ukraine society.
HOLMES: Yes, it took a while for the Soviet influence to disappear. When it comes to intent, Putin knows well, as do you, I'd guess, that invading is one thing; holding territory amid a hostile population is quite another.
In that sense, what do you think Putin is calculating, weighing up, as he thinks about invasion?
HERTLING: He is not calculating very well, from a force perspective standpoint. There have been various studies talking about troop-to- task relationships. That's one of the things that the military does.
What are the things that soldiers are expected to do on the ground?
It is one thing to invade; it's another thing to hold territory and to be amongst the people and to build a new society.
If Mr. Putin is thinking he will achieve regime change through the use of force, he doesn't have enough forces, in my view, to do that.
Just as a calculation, you are talking -- the numbers that are staggering, 190,000 forces all around the border. But Ukraine is an extremely large country, with about 41 million people in its population. In order to control the major cities, like Kyiv, like Kharkiv, like
Lviv, some of the other ones, you would need a much larger force, trained in more than just combat activity. And what I mean is civil affairs, producing government officials, extending the economy.
Unless Mr. Putin wants to, completely, destroy Ukraine -- and that may be his intent -- he is going to need a different kind of force. And they are going to have to stay for a very long time to get Ukraine under their influence.
So I don't think, bottom line, that he certainly has enough forces and he hasn't the capability to do anything but initial combat actions. And that will be problematic.
HOLMES: Yes. And he is well aware of what happened with the Soviets in Afghanistan, too, when it came to the same scenario. Have to leave it there, unfortunately. Lieutenant General Mark Hertling, as always, great to have your expertise, thank you so much.
HERTLING: Great to talk to you, Michael, stay safe over there.
HOLMES: Thank you.
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HOLMES: All right, I am Michael Holmes in Lviv, Ukraine. I will be back with more at the top of the hour.
For now, let's go back to Atlanta, where Lynda Kinkade has the latest other stories of the day -- back to you.
KINKADE: Fascinating discussion, with the Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling.
Still to come on CNN NEWSROOM, we are entering the final days of the Beijing Olympics. But there is still plenty of competition left at these Winter Games.
What to watch?
Coming up next.
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KINKADE: Welcome back. It is the final weekend of the Beijing Winter Olympics but there is still plenty of competition left in store at these games, including the pairs figure skating free skate with China's gold medal favorites after a world record performance on Friday.
And U.S. skier McKayla Shiffrin has one more shot at a medal in her sixth and final event.
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KINKADE: Escalating COVID cases are forcing Hong Kong to push back election for the city's next chief executive. The vote was set for March, but it's been postponed to May 8th.
Carrie Lam's term expires at the end of June. Lam has yet to announce whether she will run for a second term and she has not ruled out postponing the election again if COVID-19 cases rise.
Australia's two most populous states are easing their rules as cases start to decline. Victoria and New South Wales are eliminating the restrictions on indoor gatherings; dance clubs can open if they use contact tracing apps.
And both states are reducing hotel quarantine terms for unvaccinated international travelers. This is in advance of the country opening its borders to vaccinated international tourists on Monday.
Scuffles broke out in Canada's capital on Friday, as police tried to clear demonstrators who have been clogging streets around parliament for three weeks now. Ottawa police say more than 100 people were arrested and 21 vehicles were towed.
Police say some protesters assaulted officers and tried to take their weapons. At one point, police on horseback moved in to help disperse the crowd. A bicycle was thrown at a horse, causing it to trip.
The protests began as a move by truckers, unhappy with Canada's vaccine border mandate.
The death toll is climbing after massive landslides in Brazil and the weather is making it very difficult for the search for survivors. We will have the latest details just ahead on CNN NEWSROOM.
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KINKADE: The death toll is rising from those devastating landslides that hit Brazil. At least 130 people have died, hundreds more are still missing, after heavy rains battered an area north of Rio de Janeiro. Journalist Stefano Pozzebon has more.
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STEFANO POZZEBON, CNN CORRESPONDENT: President Jair Bolsonaro said that the damage caused by heavy floods in the city of Petropolis in the last week looked like that of a war zone.
The president was speaking after flying over the most affected areas in his helicopter. But to the survivors of these tragedies, who are still looking for their loved ones, under the mud, and the critics, who argue the government should do more to protect at risk neighborhoods in the rainy season in Brazil, the president said that their losses were unavoidable and offered hope and prayers.
JAIR BOLSONARO, BRAZILIAN PRESIDENT (through translator): Often, we are unable to protect ourselves against what can happen in these 8.5 million square kilometers.
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BOLSONARO (through translator): Obviously, it's correct for people to be critical. But this here is a region with a lot of accidents and, unfortunately, we have had other tragedies here. I pray to God that they do not happen again and we will do our part.
POZZEBON (voice-over): According to the latest figures from the civil defense department in Rio de Janeiro, the total death toll of the tragedy has already overtaken 130 victims. And 200 people are still missing.
The Brazilian police told CNN the situation could get worse in the coming hours. So with the Brazilian Meteorological Institute forecasting heavy rains across the area through Saturday evening -- for CNN, this is Stefano Pozzebon, Bogota, Colombia.
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KINKADE: Parts of the U.K. and northwest Europe are trying to recover from one of the worst storms in decades. Towns across the U.K. were pummeled by record-breaking winds when the storm known as Eunice hit on Friday.
It caused huge waves along the coast, uprooting trees and ripping off rooftops. At least six people were killed in England, Ireland and the Netherlands. Storm Eunice also halted dozens of flights across London's major airports and planes struggled to land in the high winds.
This has not gone unnoticed by some very unenthusiastic plane spotters at London's Heathrow Airport. Jerry Dyer from the YouTube channel Big Jet TV has seen hundreds of thousands of people tuning into his livestream. And with this sort of dramatic commentary, it is easy to see why.
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JERRY DYER, BIG JET TV: Easy, easy, easy, easy. Go on, son. Oh, OK, tippy-toe. Tippy-toe. Yes. Big swing, man. (INAUDIBLE) surely not. Surely not. He's going to do it, he's going to do it. Oh, he is down. Fair play, mate. Fair play.
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KINKADE: Experts are warning that another storm is expected to bring a new round of powerful winds, though not as strong as Eunice.
"This is just the beginning," that message from 24-year-old model Sophia Jurrell (ph). She became the first person with Down syndrome to be featured in a Victoria's Secret campaign.
The Puerto Rican model is part of the lingerie brand's inclusion campaign for its new Love Cloud collection. The brand is currently refreshing its image after widespread criticism about model diversity.
Last summer it retired its so-called angels and canceled its annual televised fashion show. The new campaign also includes a transgender model and an indigenous firefighter.
Thanks so much for joining us for this edition of CNN NEWSROOM, I'm Lynda Kinkade. "INSIDE AFRICA" is coming up next. We will have much more news at the top of the hour.
