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New U.S. Intel Adds To U.S. Fears That Russia Readying For Military Action; President Biden Cancels Trip To Delaware; Escalating Ceasefire Violations Reported In Eastern Ukraine; Residents In A Ukraine Town Fear A Russian Invasion Is Imminent; Britain's Queen Elizabeth Tests Positive For COVID-19; Protesting Canada's COVID Restrictions. Aired 4-5p ET

Aired February 20, 2022 - 16:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[16:00:00]

PENIEL JOSEPH, PROFESSOR OF PUBLIC AFFAIRS AND HISTORY, UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT AUSTIN: What the Democratic Party is able to do, and we see it most acutely with the rise of Barack Obama, is to create a multiracial, multicultural coalition where you can win the presidency with a plurality of white voters and we saw Obama do this in 2008 and 2012.

FREDRICKA WHITFIELD, CNN HOST: All right. We're going to be watching because it is riveting.

Peniel Joseph, thank you so much for being with us.

The all-new CNN Original Series "LBJ: TRIUMPH AND TRAGEDY" premiering with back-to-back episodes tonight, 9:00 p.m. right here on CNN.

Thank you so much for joining me, everybody. I'm Fredricka Whitfield. The NEWSROOM continues right now with Phil Mattingly.

ANNOUNCER: This is CNN breaking news.

PHIL MATTINGLY, CNN HOST: You are live in the CNN NEWSROOM. I'm Phil Mattingly in for Jim Acosta. And we begin with breaking news.

We just have word that U.S. officials have new intelligence that adds to U.S. fears that Russia is readying for military action. And this comes as President Biden today convened his National Security Council as the U.S. continues to warn Moscow could strike against Ukraine at any moment, still holds out hope that diplomatic efforts will prevail.

But violence continues to escalate in parts of Ukraine. Officials say more than 100 troop violations in the eastern part of the country recorded jut this weekend. Stoking even more fears that an invasion could be imminent.

Right now an estimated 190,000 Russian personnel are in and around Ukraine, including the breakaway regions in country's east. And today top Biden administration officials including Vice President Kamala Harris warned Europe hasn't faced this kind of threat since World War II. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KAMALA HARRIS, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We're talking about the potential for war in Europe. I mean, let's really take a moment to understand the significance of what we're talking about. It's been over 70 years and through those 70 years, as I mentioned yesterday, there has been peace and security. We are talking about the real possibility of war in Europe.

ANTONY BLINKEN, U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE: We believe President Putin has made the decision, but until the tanks are actually rolling and the planes are flying, we will use every opportunity and every minute we have to see if diplomacy can still dissuade President Putin from carrying this forward.

KATE SNOW, ABC NEWS: Would we see tanks rolling into Kyiv?

LLOYD AUSTIN, DEFENSE SECRETARY: Well, you could see that. I mean, that's highly likely. You could see that. You could see a significant amount of combat power move very quickly to take Kyiv.

(END OF VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: The highest stakes moment, very candid assessments. We have a team of reporters from Washington to Moscow, covering all sides here and what's at stakes. CNN's Arlette Saenz is at the White House. CNN's Jill Dougherty is in Moscow. But I want to start with CNN's Jim Sciutto in Ukraine.

Jim, U.S. officials have been very candid and very forward about their assessments about where President Putin stands at this moment in time. You have new reporting as to why they may be in that place right now. What is it?

JIM SCIUTTO, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: That's right, Phil. According to the latest U.S. intelligence assessment orders have been sent to tactical commanders to proceed with an invasion of Ukraine. This according to officials with direct knowledge of that intelligence reporting by myself and my colleague Natasha Bertrand.

Now to be clear, as context important when assessing intelligence like this, this is one of several indicators that U.S. officials, the U.S. Military are watching for that would indicate to them that an invasion is in its final stages of preparation. This is one of them. Others that they're looking for, for instance, electronic jamming of signals here in this country, massive cyberattacks have not yet been observed.

We should also note that orders such as this, they can be rescinded, and throughout this conflict, disinformation has been part of the battle space. And it's possible that intelligence like this could be deliberate, perhaps intended to mislead. That said, it's important because we have heard from the president, the secretary of state, the vice president, the defense secretary in recent days saying it is their view, it is the U.S. view, that Putin, that Russia, has made the decision to invade. We've heard that first from President Biden on Friday. Since then

we've heard it echoed by Vice President Harris in Munich, Antony Blinken today. Tony Blinken saying in his words that the Russian playbook, the invasion playbook, is in his words moving forward. So, again, the new intelligence that orders have been sent to tactical commanders to proceed with invasion, this is an important indicator, but other indicators, the U.S. is still looking for that would indicate to them this is set to happen -- Phil.

MATTINGLY: Yes. Such a dynamic situation right, trying to flush out why you've seen the president get so far on his front foot there. And speaking of the president I want to swing over to Arlette Saenz who's over at the White House.

And Arlette, the president convened his National Security Council today for a lengthy meeting that has now ended.

[16:05:04]

Earlier the president had considered traveling to Wilmington, Delaware, this weekend, but had decided to stay in Washington. Then he was supposed to go later today. Now we're learning he's no longer going. I'm reluctant to read too much into the president's travel schedule to some degree. But what are you hearing about the decision not to go to Wilmington? And I think more broadly what happened today at the White House and the National Security Council meeting?

ARLETTE SAENZ, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, Phil, there's certainly been a lot of whiplash when it comes to President Biden's schedule. At 2:38 this afternoon the White House said that he would be traveling up to Wilmington, Delaware, which was an abrupt change. And then later, a little bit over an hour, the White House said that that plan was because the president was going to travel for a family- related matter but he has now decided to stay here in Washington.

Now this all follows that very rare Sunday meeting that President Biden held with his National Security Council in the situation room as they discussed the next steps regarding Russia and Ukraine. A short while ago the White House release a photo of that meeting and you can see top Cabinet officials like Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, also the National Security adviser Jake Sullivan.

And also you can see her slightly pictured there, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. She would play a very important role if the U.S. were to implement sanctions against Russia if they do move forward with an invasion. Of course that issue of the sanctions, the White House has been working closely with allies on for days and weeks to try to craft a package to implement. But those sanctions have come under some scrutiny.

Yesterday the Ukrainian President Zelensky said that he believes that those sanctions should be outlined and possibly implemented before an invasion. The White House and top officials have really defended waiting to implement those sanctions saying that they need to act as a deterrent to Russia and they don't want to have those taken off the table or have President Putin able to plan for that.

Now we are also learning that President Biden is set to speak with French President Emmanuel Macron this afternoon. That follows those back-to-back phone calls that Macron had with both Putin and Zelensky as he is looking to chart a diplomatic path forward. And even as the U.S. continues to warn that Russia could invade Ukraine at any moment, there is still a glimmer of hope for diplomacy.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken told our colleague Dana Bash earlier today that President Biden would be willing to speak with President Putin at any time, in any format, if it could avert an invasion of Ukraine. But of course, that window is quickly narrowing as the White House and top U.S. officials continue to warn that Russia could attack at any time.

MATTINGLY: Yes. That's right. Also in that picture, Bill Burns, the CIA director, Avril Haines, her nameplate was there as well, as top intelligence adviser. It's very clear the entire team was there. It's a very serious moment.

Arlette, thanks so much.

I want to swing over to Jill. Jill, you're on the ground in Moscow. We've heard so much from U.S. officials over the course of the last several days. Less from Russian officials. But we did see today that Russian troops will remain in Belarus, past what had been the end time for the exercises going on there. What are you hearing on the ground in Moscow?

JILL DOUGHERTY, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: I think, Phil that that is probably the most significant thing militarily, but just the latest from Moscow is that the United States and the city has issued a security advisory for U.S. citizens saying that -- and they're citing media sources. So not clear exactly those would be Russian, of course. Saying that there could be attacks, threats of attacks, on shopping centers, metro stations, railways, et cetera, to be very careful.

And also obviously along that border between Russia and Ukraine. Now they do say you should avoid crowds, carry your I.D. and also I think significantly have, as they say, an evacuation plan that doesn't rely on the United States personnel at the embassy because, as we know, the embassy really has been decimated during this diplomatic standoff with Russia. There are almost no people who can provide consular services.

So essentially Americans should, you know, make their own plans. They're not saying anything, you know, to leave, but what they're saying is because of the potential for some type of attacks that Americans should be very, very careful.

And then getting back to that military part you were talking about, Phil, that is very important. The gigantic military exercises that Belarus and Russia were holding along that northern border of Ukraine were ending, but then they announced that the troops would be staying.

And why? Because they say that the instability, the aggravations of the situation in Donbas, and that is the Russian-speaking area in the eastern part of Ukraine, along that border with Russia. And speaking of that, we've had continuing video on Russian TV and CNN's reporting of people loading up women and children, loading up on buses, and going off to Russia.

[16:10:07]

So at this stage, you know, there's a diplomatic track, but I think Arlette covered that quite well, and it does not seem to be leading to anything specific at least at this point.

MATTINGLY: Yes. Certainly, no signs of de-escalation. Jill Dougherty in Moscow, Jim Sciutto on the ground in Ukraine, Arlette Saenz at the White House. Thanks so much, guys.

Now in eastern Ukraine the buildup of Russian troops on the border has escalated tensions. CNN's Sam Kiley visited a town there. Its name, New York, and he spoke with a family who fear a Russian invasion is imminent.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

SAM KILEY, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): In a small town called New York in Eastern Ukraine, and a short flight for a mortar bomb from rebel territory, lies Slavyanska Street. After eight years of war so close to the front line, homes here are almost worthless. These houses haven't been smashed by war. They've been destroyed by the poverty conflict brings. Torn down and sold as recycled bricks and tiles, locals tell us that these houses sell for about 70 bucks.

(On-camera): This is the end of Slavyanska Street. Now just down there is the checkpoint and beyond that is rebel held territory. And in the last hour or so we've heard at least eight explosions.

(Voice-over): Lilia is 3. She's out amid the shelling with her mom, lending a hand, playing with the family pup through a gate riddled with shrapnel holes from a shell that landed before she was born. Her parents tell her that the latest barrage is thunder. But it is something to worry about.

LIUDMILA PONOMARENKO, RESIDENT OF NEW YORK, UKRAINE: (Graphics) She does not understand. But very soon she will understand because she is 3. So now we are thinking about whether we stay here.

KILEY: Andrey is a rescue worker. He is acutely aware of the surge in recent shelling. According to Ukrainian authorities, there were at least 70 strikes along the front line that Saturday.

(On-camera): So what kind of life do you think your daughter is going to have?

ANDREY PONOMARENKO, RESIDENT OF NEW YORK, UKRAINE: (Graphics) How could I know? There is no stability in the country. I'm doing my best to provide all that's needed. But still, I can't change reality.

KILEY (voice-over): The increased Russian-backed rebel shelling that killed two government soldiers on Saturday is being seen as a possible prelude to a Russian invasion, perhaps along this very street.

Across the road, Maxim (PH) draws water from a well. This community is sliding back into the 19th century. And fear bears down on everyone.

(On-camera): Is there much shelling?

VALENTINA, RESIDENT OF NEW YORK, UKRAINE: (Graphics) There, you hear it. Yes.

KILEY: You've had this for a long time. Are you feeling frightened now though?

VALENTINA: (Graphic) Yes, I'm scared, very scared.

KILEY (voice-over): But many living in Ukraine's New York are trapped by these wartime blues.

MAXIM, RESIDENT OF NEW YORK, UKRAINE: (Graphics) Where should we go? Why? Nobody cares. And where should we get money to live and rent? So that is why we are staying in this house.

KILEY: Sam Kiley, CNN, New York, Ukraine.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MATTINGLY: Retired Lieutenant General Mark Hertling joins us now. He's the former Army commanding general for Europe in the Seventh Army. He's also a CNN military analyst.

General Hertling, I want to start, things are moving really fast right now and it feels like every 15 to 20 minutes we're getting a new element of this, but I want to pull back a little bit in the sense of, what are the stakes right now given how tense things have gotten from a broader perspective of things?

LT. GEN. MARK HERTLING, CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Well, first of all, Phil, it's going to be very challenging within Ukraine, as you just heard those residents of New York, Ukraine talked about. They have been suffering through this on the eastern side of Ukraine for the last eight years. What we may see soon is not just that small area of the Donbas, but attacks into other areas both in the southeastern part and we're seeing ships cross underneath the Crimean Bridge from the Black Sea into the Sea of Azov.

Landing crash ships that could do amphibious landings on the shore between the Donbas and Crimea, to connect that land bridge to Russia. You could see potential for a mounted assault to Kyiv which would be -- would have as a prelude either rocket artillery, ballistic missiles or aircraft, like we saw in the early stages of "Desert Storm" or "Iraqi Freedom" or the kinds of things the U.S. did.

But you're also going to see the asymmetric warfare pieces that everyone has talked about. The cyberattacks, the potential for Spetsnaz forces in key capital cities. Assassinations, attempt to replace government officials. And as we heard from those citizens of that small town, you're going to probably see an increasing humanitarian crisis as well as a refugee crisis in Ukraine.

[16:15:10]

Citizens just trying to get out from underneath the artillery, the bombings, the rockets because we all have seen over the last decade or so the Russian military does not pay a whole lot of attention to non- combatants. When they go in, it isn't just military targets they are striking. They have shown a proclivity to strike non-military targets which puts great fear into the population of the various cities.

All of those things will contribute not only to the initial reaction within Ukraine, but then there's the follow-up of a potential insurgency because the Ukrainian people have said we're not going to allow Russia to take us. We've admired our sovereign for the last two decades, three decades. We want to stay a free and independent state, and the Ukrainian military has actually done a great -- has had a great deal of progress in reaching that stage.

MATTINGLY: General, you heard Jim Sciutto's new reporting about intel that Russia is readying for an attack to some degree. As somebody who's a military commander, who's on the ground, who've commanded large-scale units, what does it tell you that the U.S. is picking up that some of those orders may have been delivered right now? Does that mean things are imminent? Is it part of the disinformation? There's a lot of question right now as to what this intelligence could mean. What's your sense of things?

HERTLING: Yes. Truthfully, Phil, that's a great question and no one else has asked me that question yet. It could mean, yes, they are following a playbook. Yes, they are following a synchronization matrix of one even occurring after another. Jill's report about the embassy in Moscow, saying there could be attacks in Moscow and St. Petersburg. That wasn't issued by the Russian government. That was issued by the American embassy.

So we could be thinking, hey, this is something to prevent American citizens to being caught up in those kind of attacks. So is that misinformation, disinformation, mal-information? Or is it intelligence that's actually guiding actions? You know, truthfully, when Russians use their part of the doctrine called maskirovka or deception, they are trying to play into the fear of cognitive dissidence on the part of the enemy. Hey, we expect this to happen therefore it will.

But what we're seeing so far, Phil, has been fascinating to me. Everything that the State Department and the Defense Department have predicted thus far have occurred. So I'm not prone to believe that it is cognitive dissidence that they're deceiving us.

This is along a battle plan which tells me we're reading their mail. We know what they're about to do next, and when someone says we have their battle plans, I believe we have their battle plans, because I've been in situations where we knew what the enemy was going to do next, and we preempted those kinds of strikes.

MATTINGLY: Yes. The president alluded to the scale of the U.S. intelligence capabilities and certainly seems to have played out as they predicted in many ways.

Lieutenant General Mark Hertling, thanks so much for your time, sir.

HERTLING: Thanks, Phil.

MATTINGLY: All right, coming up, we have breaking news. Queen Elizabeth has tested positive for COVID. A live report on how the 95- year-old monarch is doing. Coming up next.

You're live in the CNN NEWSROOM.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[16:22:27]

MATTINGLY: Welcome back where we have more breaking news. Queen Elizabeth has tested positive for COVID. Buckingham Palace says the 95-year-old has mild cold-like symptoms. Now this comes just 10 days after her son and heir to the throne Prince Charles tested positive for COVID.

CNN royal correspondent Max Foster joins us now.

And Max, I know this was the concern you're alluding to, and Prince Charles tested positive. The Queen getting -- testing positive for COVID. How do we know -- what do we know about how the Queen is doing at this point?

MAX FOSTER, CNN ROYAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, she's receiving medical attention, but at the same time they are emphasizing that she has mild symptoms, and that she's still at her desk carrying out certain duties. You know, light duties, if you like. So this afternoon she sent a note out congratulating the British Olympic team, for example. They're really emphasizing that she is carrying on but she's receiving medical attention.

We're told that she's following all the regulations, which would mean that she'd have to be self-isolating at this point. She's nearly 96 years old and the other day she met some senior members of the military, on Wednesday last week, and she was struggling to move. She said she couldn't move. I was told by sources she wasn't injured but she was feeling very sick.

So I think it's a pretty uncomfortable situation for her to be in, but not too much concern coming from the palace according to the people I'm speaking to.

MATTINGLY: That is some good news. Max Foster, thanks so much.

And joining me now is Dr. Jonathan Reiner, a professor of medicine and surgery at George Washington University. He's also a CNN medical analyst.

And Doctor, I first want to start on the Queen testing positive. You know, what is the biggest concern right now both for her in a micro sense but also for a macro level, for others who are in a similar aged category who test positive now?

DR. JONATHAN REINER, CNN MEDICAL ANALYST: Well, Phil, COVID disproportionately kills the elderly. And if you look since the beginning of this pandemic, about 75 percent of all deaths in the United States have come in folks over the age of 65. And if you look at the group over 75, they comprise about half of all deaths to COVID in the United States.

The Queen has been vaccinated, and that dramatically reduces her risk of dying from this, but she's almost 96 years old and 96-year-old people have very little reserve. The vast majority of deaths in breakthrough infections have occurred in the Queen's population, in people over the age of 65. About 85 percent of the deaths occur in older people.

[16:25:05]

If I was treating the Queen now, I would have rapidly administered or begun treatment with Paxlovid, which is the oral, very potent, very effective anti-viral regimen, and I'm assuming that the Queen has received that.

MATTINGLY: You know, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is expected to end self-isolation rules for people who have COVID. Under current regulations people who test positive are legally bound to self-isolate for at least five days and have two test negative tests before ending that isolation. What do you make of this decision?

REINER: You know, as in the United States, although things are getting much better, there are still quite a bit of COVID circulating. I think in London the rate per 100,000 population is something like 60 cases per day per 100,000 population, which is lower than it was a month ago. Much lower but still significant.

This just raises sort of the overall point of when it's safe to drop our guard. And even though things are getting much better, and the population here and I'm sure the population in the United Kingdom is just itching to drop, you know, all pandemic mitigation measures, there are still significant virus around. And the people that will suffer from any, you know, further surge are people like the Queen of England. People who are at risk. People who are old.

People who are otherwise immunocompromised who are recovering from a serious illness, which is why I and, you know, many of my colleagues have urged at least, you know, a very measured, careful, even slower reduction in dropping masking, particularly in public, until levels of this virus are at much lower levels than they are now. I think we'll be there within the next few weeks. But this is just a very vivid example of what can happen when the virus continues to circulate in our communities.

MATTINGLY: Yes, which it certainly is. Now, before I let you go, I have to ask you about comments from Eric Trump about the COVID vaccine. Take a listen to this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: What is your opinion in general on the vaccination situation?

ERIC TRUMP, DONALD TRUMP'S SON: Pissed off.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Pissed off?

E. TRUMP: Yes. Not because I'm an anti-vaxxer. I'm pissed off because you have a political party, the Democrats, who've gone around for years and years and years, yelling, my body, my choice, as it pertained to abortion, right, and then all of a sudden, guess what? It's no longer your body, your choice.

To me the vaccine actually represents something that's much greater than a medical shot. To me the vaccine represents literally the stripping of freedoms in this country.

(END OF VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: Right. But it's also medical shot, which is what it actually represents. I want to remind people that Eric Trump's father, former President Trump is vaccinated and received his booster. He made that clear in an interview with that host there Trump was talking to.

Doctor, what's your reaction to Eric Trump's comments there?

REINER: Sometimes it's better to keep your mouth shut that expose your ignorance. Stripping of freedoms, right. It's the -- Mr. Trump's father not just takes credit for the vaccine, basically takes credit for almost inventing this vaccine.

Look, if you look at 1900, people who were born in 1900 had about a 48-year life expectancy in this country. Now it's almost 80 years. And that's been brought about by massive advances in treatment of infectious diseases and vaccinations. In 1900, a child born in 1900 had about a one in four chance of dying before they turned 5. Now that's 0.07 percent. So that's been brought about by vaccines.

So what Mr. Trump basically is advocating is a return to Medieval Times. Make America Medieval again. It's really unbecoming and nonsensical. Americans live to almost 80 years old because we embrace science, not because we refuse science.

MATTINGLY: Yes. It seems to have been fairly effective. Look, have the debate ideologically over mandates, knock yourselves out. The vaccine itself pretty proven, as Dr. Jonathan Reiner has laid out in detail so many times.

Dr. Reiner, thanks so much as always, my friend.

REINER: My pleasure.

MATTINGLY: All right, coming up, why one GOP congressman is now trying to offer Canadian protesters asylum in the U.S.

You're live in the CNN NEWSROOM. (COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MATTINGLY: We're taking back our city. That was the message from the Ottawa police today. This weekend, authorities moved aggressively to clear demonstrators who have been protesting Canada's COVID restrictions for weeks now.

Meanwhile, here in America, a vocal pocket of support emerged for those protesters. Yesterday, one Republican Congresswoman from New Mexico tweeted, quote, "I'm introducing legislation that would temporarily grant asylum to incident Canadian protesters who are being persecuted by their own government."

And right-wing media celebrated the protest here was Fox's Sean Hannity on Wednesday.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEAN HANNITY, HOST, FOX NEWS: You do have a lot of support from your friends in America. That I can tell you. And you can see these movements now. It's -- we have a movement in America that's starting very soon.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

[16:35:03]

MATTINGLY: Joining me now, CNN Senior Political Analyst and author of the brand-new book, "Lincoln and the Fight for Peace," John Avlon. John, congratulations. And CNN Political Commentator and host of PBS "Firing Line," Margaret Hoover.

Margaret, I want to start with you. One of the things that I think has been a little bit confounding for me, over the course of the last several weeks, is why this particular battle in the right's culture war is coming to a head now. As most COVID-related measures are actually being rolled back here in America. What's your sense?

MARGARET HOOVER, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Well, it's a great question, Phil. You know, as I -- I've listened to Canadians talk about this, because I've been trying to understand it, too. And what's happened in Ottawa, as I understand, is that the Canadians, while things seem to be easing up here, the restrictions are still pretty strong in parts of Canada.

And I think there's a fatigue that seems to be quasi-universal in the western world about the way COVID has affected the way we live, over the last two years now. And we all understand we want this to be over, and there's a lot of real, you know, legitimate feeling that people are fed up.

What you see, though, is a lot of the culture wars that we're having here in our politics being exported because of the presence of social media. You see -- you see this kind of thing exported to Canada. You see the mask fights showing up in England, showing up in Europe, in ways that directly represent, directly mimic the fights that we're having here at home. And I think what you see is a universality of some of these cultural memes, partly because of the prevalence of social media.

JOHN AVLON, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Yes. And I'll just add to that, Phil, I mean, partly because they're also being pumped up by foreign bought (ph) forms and patrol (ph) forms, which is not to say that people who are involved aren't being sincere, and the people who are pumping it up over here are being opportunistic.

But, at the end of the day, whatever fatigue folks are feeling, and it's understandable -- you know, pandemics don't care about your feelings. And we're still trying to get this under control. We still have an enormous number of people who are dying. And a lot of this is performative on the part of people who are trying to pump it up on the right-wing side of the aisle here who normally have no time for any protests that would shut down a bridge or a highway.

MATTINGLY: Yes. No, look, I get the fatigue 100 percent. I've got three kids. I totally understand it. I also see the fund-raising e- mails tied to these things which kind of lays bare what's going on.

I want to turn, guys, to (INAUDIBLE) candidate, J.D. Vance. He's getting a lot of backlash over these recent Ukraine comments. Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

J.D. VANCE (R-OH), U.S. SENATORIAL CANDIDATE: I think It's ridiculous that we're focused on this border in Ukraine. I don't -- I've got to be honest with you. I don't really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another. I do care about the fact that in my community right now, the leading cause of death among 18 to 45-year-olds is Mexicans' fentanyl that' coming across the southern border. I'm sick of Joe Biden focusing on the border of a country I don't care about.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: So, actually, I want to direct this to both of you. Because, Margaret, you had this great interview with Michael McFaul earlier this week. But, John, I want to start with you, because, you know, this is the party of Reagan. This is the party of more robust and strength, when it comes to foreign policy, which has clearly evolved and J.D. Vance seems to be putting a voice to that.

AVLON: No, it's not. It's not the party of Reagan anymore. It's not the party of Lincoln anymore. Neither Lincoln nor Reagan would recognize the current Republican Party, when it comes to domestic politics, or foreign policy in the case of Reagan.

This is -- what you heard J.D. Vance articulating there is the opposite of peace through strength. When he said, I don't care what's happening in Ukraine, that just gives a green light to foreign aggression of Vladimir Putin and the international order that Reagan and that generation of Republicans who were committed to international foreign policy going back to Eisenhower and Democratic presidents. That's a return to isolationists. And that -- all that does is empower people who want to overrun these international organizations that the U.S. helped establish. And that is a -- that is a phrase that may -- he may think it will play well in his Republican primary in Ohio. That's clearly a calculus.

But keep playing that, when and if, God forbid, Russia starts invading Ukraine and killing people. You want to be that callous about an attempt to overturn everything resembling the rule of law and civilization? You know, if that's your bet, you know, you'll want to look in the mirror and figure out where's it's gone wrong in your party.

HOOVER: It's funny, Phil, you say he's the candidate of the Republican Party and the party of Reagan. He's really the candidate of Donald Trump. And that's what he's fighting for. And we saw the Republican Party really shift dramatically about Russia.

And, frankly, with the respect of this new ideological fight we have between what's the best form of government it is? You know, we're not fighting anti-communists. We're not -- it's not communists versus anti-communists anymore.

You have authoritarians and representative democracies. Right? And it's breaking down along East-West lines. So, it's looking dramatically similar to the way it did in the Reagan years, except Republicans are on the wrong side right now. And that's what's so shocking, frankly heartbreaking, for people who spent their life loyal to a party and, sort of, hope that the party might correct itself.

[16:40:04]

HOOVER: It's not going to with people like J.D. Vance who are continuing to follow Donald Trump's playbook, albeit less effectively. And it's -- you know, it --

AVLON: Out of the spirit of -- sorry. Just out of the spirit of weakness, too. It's not strength to try to follow some demagogue because you're afraid of risking his wrath and you're trying to track his borders (ph). It's a sign of weakness. You don't have the courage to strengthen your spine and speak your own mind.

And that's part of the problem that's going on with the Republicans today. They're rolling over for the big lie, because they think it's -- it'll benefit them politically. That's just fear and greed driving their decision making. It's not courage.

MATTINGLY: Yes. This is the one area where Republicans would break with the former president when he was in office. But if new Republicans are coming in in that conference, it's going to be really interesting where the party goes, as you guys know very well. John Avlon, Margaret Hoover, as always, guys, thanks so much.

HOOVER: Thanks, Phil.

AVLON: Thanks, Phil. Be well. MATTINGLY: All right. Coming up next, breaking news. A brawl breaks

out after the Michigan-Wisconsin game after Michigan head coach, Juwan Howard, struck a Badger's assistant. What led to this moment, coming up next. You're live in the CNN NEWSROOM.

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MATTINGLY: Welcome back. Well, we have more breaking news. Mayhem at the end of the Michigan-Wisconsin basketball game this afternoon. It appeared to start with an argument in the handshake line between the two head coaches, Juwan Howard of Michigan and Greg Gard of Wisconsin. The two were in each other's faces.

As more players and personnel surround them, a Michigan player seems to try and get Howard to back away. And then, you just saw it, Howard reaches out striking a Badger's assistant coach on the top of head and face. Then more mayhem, as players and personnel start shoving and punching.

Jeff Goodman, stadium college basketball insider joins me now. And, Jeff, I'm an Ohio State alum, so I'm biting my tongue and playing this as straight as humanly possible. But I do, kind of, from a -- someone who's passively watching the game, what happened? How did this end up transpiring?

JEFFREY GOODMAN, STADIUM BASKETBALL INSIDER: Well, the big thing was Juwan Howard felt disrespected because Wisconsin, up 15 points with 15 seconds left, called the time-out. So, they go through the handshake line, which, to me, is still one of those things that probably needs to be completely eliminated, especially in COVID times, because it brings out things like this.

So, Juwan Howard goes through the handshake line and tries to, kind of, do a blow by. That's what we call it in college basketball or basketball altogether. And Greg Garb was having nothing of it. So, he put his arms out. He stopped Juwan Howard. They get into a little bit of a verbal exchange there.

And, ultimately, that's when Juwan starts pointing at guard. Then, an assistant coach, Joe Krabbenhoft from Wisconsin, comes over, and that's when things got physical. Juwan Howard throws, I don't think it was a -- he swings. And whether it was a punch, whether it was a slap, whatever it was, Phil, it really escalated and ignited the situation.

Then, it was mayhem, as you said. Players -- Michigan freshman, Moussa Diabate (ph), he starts swinging. And then, again, all hell breaks loose. And it's going to be interesting to see what happens to Juwan Howard. Remember, longtime NBA player. Longtime NBA assistant coach. He's in his third year with Michigan.

The question is, what happens now? I spoke to one commissioner of a conference just now. I just got off the phone with him. He said, if it were him, he would hit Juwan Howard with a suspension for the rest of the regular season and the Big Ten tournament. MATTINGLY: You know, one of the things -- look, I follow Big Ten

basketball incredibly closely. Juwan Howard obviously a member of Michigan's famed Fab Five team in the 1990s. As you know, he had been head coach at Michigan since 2019. Again, as an Ohio State Alumni, I was terrified. He can recruit. He brings a lot of attention to the program. Players seem to love him or be drawn to him, especially in the beginning.

But this isn't the first time he's been involved with an incident with another coach. He's had some fiery press conferences. Can you give people some idea of his history, particularly in what in what has seemed to be a pretty difficult season for them?

GOODMAN: Yes. A year ago, got into it with Mark Turgeon, the former Maryland head coach. And they were screaming at each other. Juwan kind of charged towards him and it's still unclear the exact words he yelled to Turgeon. But they kind of went at it.

I've talked to other coaches within the league. They say he's not the most well liked, because Juwan Howard, they feel like -- again, this is a guy who, you know, didn't come in like they did. He didn't come through the college coaching circles. He's different. He made $100 million-plus.

Listen, I just did something last week, Phil, about former NBA players who are coaches in college. Former employ -- like 50 of them. Juwan Howard has fared as well as any of them. Most of them have been disasters. You look at Patrick Ewing right now. Penny Hardaway is struggling. Chris Mullin failed.

Juwan Howard has done a heck of a job in his, you know, two plus seasons so far in college basketball at his alma mater in Michigan. Again, I do not think he'll get fired for this. But I think, certainly talking to enough people, they feel as though he will get a suspension here. Because, again, as a head coach of a college program, you can't swing at another coach and escalate the situation like he did.

MATTINGLY: Yes. No, there's no question about that. Jeff Goodman, a big fan. Thanks for coming on. I appreciate it.

GOODMAN: Thanks, Phil.

MATTINGLY: All right, we'll be right back.

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ACOSTA: Welcome back. On this Presidents Day weekend, CNN is premiering a new original series focused on the life and presidency of Lyndon Baines Johnson. See how his presidency was as complicated as the times he served, when "LBJ Triumph and Tragedy" premieres tonight at 9:00 on CNN. Here's a preview.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: LBJ was intensely aware that he came into the office under the cloak of tragedy.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It drove him to try to do things no one else had ever achieved.

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UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: He said to his aides, what the hell is the presidency for? If you're not going to do something bold, why be here?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I think Lyndon Johnson would be seen today as one of our greatest presidents, because of all that he did. But he made one bad mistake.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Vietnam really pulled him apart. He couldn't make a win out of this, no matter how hard he tried.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: LBJ said, I wish they knew that I want peace as much as they do.

LYNDON B. JOHNSON, FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: It's important to reflect and look back and see what has been done, because there's no better way to judge the future than by the past.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ANNOUNCER: "LBJ: Triumph and Tragedy" premieres tonight at 9:00 on CNN.

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