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U.S. Intelligence Indicates Order Has Been Given To Attack Ukraine; Pro-Ukrainian Groups Peacefully Marches In Washington, D.C.; Debate Over Masks In Schools; Parents Question If Masks In Schools Are Necessary; Satellite Images Show Russian Ground Forces Heading For Positions Near Ukraine Border; Financial Impact Of Looming Invasion. Aired 7-8p ET

Aired February 20, 2022 - 19:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[19:00:18]

PAMELA BROWN, CNN HOST: I'm Pamela Brown in Washington, you are live in the CNN NEWSROOM on this Sunday. And we begin this hour with breaking news in the Russia-Ukraine crisis.

Troubling new satellite imagery showing intensified movements of Russian forces near Ukraine's northeastern border. According to Colorado-based MAXAR, these images show multiple field deployments of armored equipment and troops. And it comes as CNN learns that the U.S. has intelligence indicating orders have been sent to Russian commanders to proceed with an attack Ukraine. That's according to two U.S. officials and another source familiar with the intelligence.

The U.S. has not seen indicators of planning entering its final stages. Examples of that will be electronic jamming and widespread cyberattacks. And the sources cautioned that orders can always be withdrawn or it could be misinformation meant to mislead the U.S. and its allies.

President Biden has wrapped up a rare Sunday meeting of the National Security Council in the White House situation room. CNN has learned that according to the latest U.S. intelligence, Russia has poured 75 percent of its conventional forces within striking distance of Ukraine. With Ukraine surrounded on three sides, there is a disturbing new development from Belarus to the north.

Russia is extending its military drills there that were supposed to end today. The Kremlin cites a weekend spike in violence in eastern Ukraine. Ukraine says Russian-backed separatists violated the ceasefire 74 times today. Moscow continues to encourage Ukrainian citizens to evacuate from the east and cross over into Russia. The U.S. and its allies have feared that the rising tensions in eastern Ukraine will be used as a pretext for Russia to attack.

Now let's go straight to the White House and CNN's Arlette Saenz. Arlette, what more can you tell us about President Biden's meeting today with his National Security Council?

ARLETTE SAENZ, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, Pamela, President Biden spent more than two hours in the situation room with the National Security Council earlier today as the administration continues to chart its next steps when it comes to the crisis between Russia and Ukraine. Now the White House released a very brief one-line statement regarding that meeting. It said that they discussed the latest developments regarding Russia's military buildup on the borders of Ukraine.

But if you take a look at the photo that was released by the White House, you get a glimpse into who exactly was in the room with President Biden. It includes the diplomatic, military, financial, and intelligence chiefs who are updating the president on the latest movements regarding Russia and Ukraine. Several of those people in that room including the Defense secretary, secretary of State, and National Security adviser, all are fresh off a trip to Europe where they talked with allies about the path forward.

Now in addition to this National Security Council meeting, President Biden also had a 15-minute phone call with French President Emmanuel Macron. The White House also releasing a readout of that call, saying that the two spoke about diplomacy and deterrence efforts as Russia is considering the invasion of Ukraine. The White House, even as they are warning that Russia could attack Ukraine in the coming days, the White House is still hoping that there is a diplomatic path forward.

Macron, French prime minister, spoke today with President Putin of Russia as well as Ukraine's President Zelensky. So he was updating the president a bit on what those conversations were like. Now in addition to diplomacy, the U.S. is also crafting these deterrence measures, including that sanctions package that it's been working with allies on for days and weeks really. Right now, the U.S. is facing a lot of pressure including from Ukraine's president to unveil those sanctions before an invasion occurs.

So far, the U.S. has not bowed to that kind of pressure, saying that these sanctions are meant to be a deterrence and that they do not want to lay out exactly what's going to happen and give Putin the opportunity to plan for them.

Now, as for diplomacy, the White House still insists that there is that diplomatic window that is open. Secretary of State Antony Blinken today saying that President Biden is willing to engage with President Putin in any way and in any format if it would avoid a war. Additionally, Blinken is set to meet one-on-one with his counterpart, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, on Thursday but the White House insists that meeting will only take place if Russia does not launch an attack against Ukraine.

So this White House is certainly on high alert for the coming days, as they're awaiting to see Russia's next moves -- Pamela.

BROWN: Arlette Saenz, thanks so much.

[19:05:01]

Now we have new video to share with you from the rebel-controlled eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk. Reuters reporting reporters capturing the scene as hundreds of residents continue to flee, following the order to evacuate. On Friday, separatists authorities announces plans to evacuate around 700,000 people due to fears of imminent attack.

And joining me now with more, retired Army Lieutenant General Mark Hertling. He is a CNN military analyst and former commanding general of Europe and the Seventh Army. Also with us tonight CNN global affairs analyst and "TIME" magazine contributor, Kimberly Dozier.

Great to see you both. General Hertling, first to you. Let's start with these new satellite images we're just seeing of Russian troop movements. What does this tell you?

LT. GEN. MARK HERTLING, CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Well, they're still images, Pamela, and that's combined with probably some moving images as well that are taken from some of the aircraft that can actually track vehicles as they move but when you see the picture like you have up right now, with the tanks and the BMPs all in a row, that's probably a unit coming out of a motor pool into a staging area, or heading out on a convoy to get to an attack position.

That's probably what is going on. But you can't just take the single images and draw conclusion from it. The military analyst will actually take those kinds of feeds, the multiple pictures, put them together with moving targetry, determine what kind of signals and intelligence they're getting and also potentially some human intelligence from the ground, telling them what they are seeing and what is happening.

So it's a very good indicator that satellite photos are being well done and continually updated, and it gives a good piece of the picture of what's happening within the area.

BROWN: Right. As you point out, it is a picture, putting all the intelligence together, and we know part of the intelligence that has come in, Kimberly, is what U.S. officials have been telling us that orders have been given to commanders to proceed with an invasion, to take those steps. Do you think images like this bolsters that intelligence, that that is indeed what is happening right now?

KIMBERLY DOZIER, CNN GLOBAL AFFAIRS ANALYST: Well, it certainly ratches up the pressure on the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and it raises the question, what is Vladimir Putin's ask? Is there anything that could get him not to invade? And so that conversation with the French president today was key. Is he willing to accept something like, does he need Ukraine to recognize the breakaway republics in eastern Ukraine? Does he want something from Zelensky that would make him stand down those troops?

At this point, it's got to be pretty lonely to be the Ukrainian president right now. He took the risk of flying to Munich on Saturday and pleading for basically more from the international community. He wants them to show their hand at least a little bit to try to get Putin to back down and he didn't get that.

BROWN: Right. And that has certainly not happened yet.

General, back to you. Russia is already shelling areas of Ukraine. I believe today more than 70 violations of the ceasefire in the eastern part of Ukraine. Ukraine says that that is from Russian-backed separatists, that they are not returning fire with them, but what does that indicate to you? I mean some would say, look, there's already signs of war being underway right now.

HERTLING: This has been going on for eight years, Pamela. I mean, yes, we're paying attention to it now. Yes, there are artillery strikes with 122, 120 different caliber mortar fires, but this has been happening for those of us that have been tracking it for the last eight years.

On a daily basis there have been anywhere from five to 20 attacks. It certainly has ramped up but this is not the first time that the Russian-led separatists have used artilleries. By the way, in violation of the Minsk agreement. Repeatedly violating an agreement they signed up to do and they're targeting civilian sector.

So what it tells me is, first of all, the violations continue. They're building to a new crescendo and they're continuing to target civilian- populated areas. Those are the key three items, I would say.

BROWN: Kimberly, just a second ago you were mentioning, you know, it's all about what Putin wants particularly when it comes to diplomacy, but if he does move forward with an invasion, what is it that he is really trying to do? Is it just the territory of Ukraine or larger picture to put a dent in democracy itself, battling democracy itself?

DOZIER: Well, from Putin's standpoint, he has a couple more elections that he's likely to win but he's looking ahead to legacy, and he may want to have a larger Russian territory to on pass to the next person as a sign of what he sees as the restoration of the first world status, the super power status of the Soviet Union that he grew up in as a young spy.

[19:10:13]

And we also forget that like Mark mentioned this, fighting has been going on in the disputed areas of Ukraine for eight years, but Russia has also been conducting attacks in Syria against Turkish forces, in Libya again against Turkish forces and their proxies, and again in Nagorno-Karabakh. And they got beaten by the Turks and their proxies in all three of those battles. Putin may be tired of this and he wants a solid win.

But if he goes through with seizing Ukraine, that's going to harden the NATO alliance and perhaps even push some of the Nordic countries that are not actually NATO members to join, so that's something he's got to think about.

BROWN: Right. One would hope by now he has already put that into the calculation.

General Hertling, Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson says he thinks Russia is planning the biggest war in Europe since 1945. Is he right? And if so, why now? I mean you point out this has been going on for all these years. Why now? Why is this the moment? HERTLING: Because he thinks he has an -- he thought he had an opening

a few months ago Pamela. The calculations as Kimberly just said have changed a bit. The United States has stood up to him. NATO has come back together when it was fractured a little bit over the last couple of years. So things changed since the time where Putin made the calculation that he could potentially do something like this.

Going back to what Prime Minister Johnson said, I completely agree, it's going to be much -- it could potentially be much worse than anything we ever saw in World War II because the lethality of combat, the lethality of war in a conventional sense has just dramatically and significantly increased and it will be like nothing the world has ever seen before.

You know, you see, you watch movies like "Saving Private Ryan" and you see massive artillery strikes and amphibious landings and tanks rolling across the battle field, and targets being hit. These are the kinds of things we're going to see on steroids if Russia decides to move across the Ukrainian border. And you add to that the other significant activities of the 21st century, cyber war, potentially chemical warfare, lethality beyond imagination.

All of those things will be part of this conflict that we have not seen the likes of since 1990 and the opening stages of Desert Storm.

BROWN: Wow. Wow. That is truly frightening.

General Mark Hertling, Kimberly Dozier, thank you.

DOZIER: Thanks.

HERTLING: Thank you.

BROWN: And here in the United States, Ukrainian-American communities are also on edge. CNN's Polo Sandoval joins us now from New York.

Polo, what is the Ukrainian community there saying about all of this?

POLO SANDOVAL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: It's a reminder, Pamela, that what's happening right now half a world away is visceral for so many Ukrainian-Americans here in the United States. For example, here in New York City alone, according to community organizers, roughly 150,000 Ukrainian-Americans call New York City home and that's not including obviously the pockets of Ukrainian communities throughout the rest of the country.

We've seen them obviously play out at this moment and what we're seeing is many of these turning to their faith. It certainly holds a big part of their lives. So we spent some time today outside of St. George, Ukrainian Catholic Church here in Manhattan, and spoke to one of the members that are in that parish saying that they are certainly turning to their faith. Certainly not only praying, but even going beyond that and taking real steps to reach out to their family and friends in Ukraine right now that have been caught in this conflict for eight years. I want you to hear from one of those community organizers as he laid

out some of those steps that they're taking right now to make sure that their Ukrainian brothers and sisters are able to flee if needed.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ANDRIJ DOBRIANSKY, UKRAINIAN-AMERICAN POLITICAL AND CULTURAL ANALYST: Now we are talking to family members to check in they have American passports or European passports that they can leave if they want to, if they have go bags, if they have all the contact information. We assume that cell phone communication will go down, that's happened before during the initial war. So if people have satellite phones even better.

But we want to make sure that our friends are safe in Ukraine, and we're also going to do what we can here. For the most part if you're just a local Ukrainian, you're going to be coming to church and we've had multiple prayer sessions for Ukraine.

(END OF VIDEO CLIP)

SANDOVAL: My conversation there with him certainly eye-opening because it really does hit home now when you hear what Ukrainian-Americans are doing right now. It's almost as if they're preparing for a natural disaster of sorts to make sure that they have those provisions and those supplies to be able to help.

And then of course there is a presence like what we saw today in the nation's capital with these pro-Ukrainian groups that came together peacefully to march, not only standing in solidarity with Ukraine, but also calling on the Biden administration to impose sanctions on Russia as these -- as these tensions, rather, continue to be heightened tonight.

[19:15:07]

BROWN: All right, Polo Sandoval, thank you so much.

One of the big questions, as you just heard about it, in our earlier discussion is about Russia's threat to Ukraine. Why now? Why is this the moment? We're going to ask a longtime Russia watcher about that. Plus, get a look at what could be in Vladimir Putin's playbook. Former CNN Moscow bureau chief Jill Dougherty joins us, next.

Later, it's possible that not all of the conflict would be by land, air or water. We're going to look at what could happen in a cyber war as well. Plus the invasion fears are already affecting Americans at the gas pump. We're going to look at that. Also what could happen to stocks and retirement plans.

You're in the CNN NEWSROOM.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: Welcome back to the CNN NEWSROOM on this Sunday. We're following breaking news this evening. New satellite images showing Russian ground forces dispersing to positions close to the Ukrainian border.

[19:20:04]

This comes amid intelligence obtained by U.S. officials that indicates Russian military commanders have been given orders to proceed with an attack on Ukraine, and the sources cautioned that the order could be withdrawn at any point or could be Russian misinformation.

I want to go straight to Jill Dougherty in Moscow. She was CNN's Moscow bureau chief and is now a contributor.

Jill, what is the reaction to this reporting in Russia right now?

JILL DOUGHERTY, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: You know, Pamela, it's the same that it's been actually for days and days and days, which is essentially this is ridiculous. And that is what the Foreign Ministry would say, that is what Russian officials say. In fact, the ambassador to the United States said that the Donbas region that we've been talking so much about, that's part of Ukraine.

Russia is not intent on taking any territory. And actually the spokesperson for the Foreign Ministry really trolls it with a lot of humor and sarcasm. So, of course, you wouldn't expect them to say yes, we are going to attack when they've been saying all along that they won't.

BROWN: And earlier today, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that Russia's playbook for an invasion is moving forward. Of course, part of that playbook would be not saying hey, we're going to attack right now, but if you would elaborate on that, what does this playbook look like and why now?

DOUGHERTY: Well, you know, the playbook is really, has been worked out over many years, in fact you could say, going back to the old Soviet days, there are many similar things that are going on. Disinformation, et cetera. But I think that question of why now, why President Putin wants to do this, I would say, you know, it really is kind of the big picture that he looks at the world after the end of the Cold War, feels that Russia was on its knees. The United States, the West forced Russia into all sorts of things, feeling that Russia was very weak.

Now he would say Russia is back off its knees, standing up with plenty of new weapons, et cetera. And then he looks at, and so what he wants is a sphere of influence around the border of the former Soviet Union and that includes countries like Ukraine, Georgia, and he wants a zone where Russia actually influences and controls those areas. And I would also say he looks at the United States, believes that the United States is weak, falling apart, economically, politically, societally.

He looks at Europe and I don't want to be too extreme but in essence they just say Europe is a toady of the United States, they don't really matter, and then look toward their budding friendship with China and they feel that Beijing has their back, although some of the statements recently coming out from Beijing about the territorial integrity of Ukraine was very interesting. That did not go along with what Russia has been saying. And then finally, you know, Russia does believe that the United

States' aim in all of this is to bring Russia down and to probably bring down the Putin presidency, the regime. So that's, in a nutshell, there are many, many reasons but I think those are the basic ones.

BROWN: The many reasons for the why now. All right, Jill Dougherty, thank you so much.

With more of the U.S. rolling back COVID restrictions, there is renewed debate over whether it's time to unmask kids in class as well. We're going to talk to two doctors on opposite sides of this issue for a civil discussion, up next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[19:28:25]

BROWN: We continue to follow the latest from Ukraine. We're going to get back to that in just a few minutes. But we want to turn to the debate over masks in schools. Many states are easing school masking rules but it could be April before vaccines are approved for the 5 and under crowd. Is going without a mask safe? Well, the president's chief medical adviser, Dr. Anthony Fauci, says he's not so sure of that.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DR. ANTHONY FAUCI, CHIEF MEDICAL ADVISER TO THE PRESIDENT: It is really not prudent to pull masks off children. You don't want to say it's an absolutely wrong decision. It's understandable why people want to take masks off the kids, but right now, given the level of activity that we have it is risky.

(END OF VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN: The CDC says it is reviewing the mask guidelines and will be updating them soon.

So what should that update look like for kids? Dr. Jeanne Noble, an associate professor of emergency medicine and the director of COVID Response at the University California San Francisco Emergency Department joins us now, along with Amna Husain, a pediatrician.

Good evening, ladies.

DR. JEANNE NOBLE, DIRECTOR OF COVID RESPONSE, UCSF EMERGENCY DEPARTMENT: Good evening. Thanks for having us.

DR. AMNA HUSAIN, PEDIATRICIAN: Hi, good evening.

BROWN: So you both have different perspectives on this issue, and Dr. Noble, you told me last week that if anyone is going to unmask, we should let our children go first and now is the time to get rid of mask mandates for kids in school. Why do you believe that?

NOBLE: Yes. Kids are at the very lowest risk from serious health consequences or death from COVID compared to our wider population. [19:29:59]

They've also endured the longest period of social isolation and many state schools were closed for a full 18 months during 2020 and 2021.

So as we lift these risk mitigation layers, masking being the prominent one that we're discussing now, kids should really be first in line. They are the least threatened by COVID illness and they have the most to lose from perpetual masking in their educational environments, trying to understand nuanced speech, read facial emotions.

And we have -- you know, we have a lot of kids who are learning English as a second language. In fact, five million of them in the United States, another four million kids who have some sort of language delay.

Keeping them masked and their teachers masked is really putting enormous barriers in their path to catching up and getting where they need to go from an educational standpoint.

BROWN: Dr. Husain, you're on the other side of this issue. Why do you think kids in school should stay masked?

DR. AMNA HUSAIN, PEDIATRICIAN: Sure, and I completely understand Dr. Noble's standpoint, I am a mother of two children who are not yet vaccine eligible, four and eight months old, and I understand just how much fear, overwhelm, anxiety, and frustration is out there.

But what I worry about is just losing these important public health safety measures in the homestretch. We are so close to being able to provide some kind of vaccination and protection to our youngest population, but right now is not the time.

We know that we are just overcoming barely a surge right now and omicron has shown us three times the peak of what the cases were during delta amongst children.

The latest morbidity-mortality weekly report from the C.D.C. actually shows that children have hospitalizations four times higher right now during omicron, highest cases of positivity are actually amongst children zero to four years of age, not yet vaccine eligible, and six times higher rates of hospitalization among adolescents who are not yet vaccinated.

I completely agree that we need to keep schools open. They are more than just an academic institution, they provide social skills, emotional skills, safety, support, nutrition, health activities, so many things for children, but one thing that we do know is that masking allows schools to actually stay open in a safe way with these important mitigation measures in place. We know that you are much less likely to test positive if you wear one.

BROWN: So what do you say to that, Dr. Noble? The point that Dr. Husain makes that look, when you look at the hospitalizations, a lot of these are the kids that are under the five -- age five -- and they're not yet eligible for vaccines, and so they should wear masks to provide that protection. What do you say to that?

NOBLE: So we have to take these risks in context and for parents to really make decisions and navigate these difficult times, they need to know what these COVID risks are compared to risk that they're used to navigating with their kids.

So an unvaccinated five-year-old has the same risk of a serious outcome from COVID as a vaccinated 50-year-old are. Our parents have sent their young ones to school without masks, without testing and quarantine in RSV season, RSV, the virus that causes frequent respiratory infection in little ones, as well as flu. And so these comparative numbers I think, will be really reassuring to parents who in a typical RSV season, between 100 and 500 kids under the age of five die every year.

For COVID, for the two years that we've had COVID with us, 307 children under the age of five have died during those two years. That's, you know, an annualized death rate of 150 kids dying per year, which is on the low end, when you compare it to RSV, and when you compare it to flu, the data is similar.

So for our 2019 flu season, we had 347 kids under the age of five die of flu, and again 307 have died of COVID in the past two years. So flu was actually a greater threat in terms of death for kids in 2019.

So parents need to be aware of these numbers, it's very hard to know what the real risk is, when we just report, gosh, thousands of kids are in the hospital, but compared to what? And the risks that young kids face from COVID is very similar to the risk that they have historically faced from other respiratory viruses.

And then a second piece of this is that do masks really reduce the risk of transmission in schools? And in order to know what masks do, we need high quality evidence, and that in Medicine, we call a randomized controlled trial.

We only have one of those for masks during the time of COVID and only in adults. It was done in Bangladesh and it found a very modest risk reduction for adults over the age of 50 who wore a surgical mask, no benefit at all for cloth masks, and the real risk reduction was probably somewhere around the order of one percent.

[19:35:01]

NOBLE: So, in this post-vaccination era, where we have our highest risk individuals with free access to vaccines in kids who are much lower risk, even when they are unvaccinated and have so much to lose from perpetual masking, the time has really come to urgently get them back to normal and let them unmask.

BROWN: Okay, and Dr. Husain, I'm going to give you the time to respond to that.

In terms of the studies on the C.D.C. website, there are there are a lot of different studies. I see your point, Dr. Noble that they should be of a certain quality, but the C.D.C., and I encourage everyone who is interested in this to check out what the C.D.C. has in terms of studies, including those impacting school-aged children in schools with mask mandates and without.

But Dr. Husain, you just heard Dr. Noble make the case that look, during flu season, before all of this, kids didn't have to mask up at school, and that arguably, the flu is more of a risk to kids than COVID is. So why should they be wearing masks now? What do you say to that?

HUSAIN: Yes, if I may, we pediatricians, we see a lot of flu and actually, COVID-19 is not at all like the flu. Yes, both affect the upper respiratory tract, but let's actually talk numbers here.

So typically, 150 to 200 children and teens die of flu per year. Now, just in November of 2021, we had 745 children dead from COVID-19. Now look at us, and almost February, we're at almost a thousand. We have 970 children dead.

So at the span of three to four months from November to now in February, you've had almost 300 children pass away from COVID-19. Not to mention one thing, it's not just about mortality, because I know a lot of people say it's just the cold, it's just a cold.

It's not just about mortality, it's also about long COVID. MISC, and just like we've talked about schools staying open, there are stressors about schools closing, not to mention, one thing that I try to teach my children is make sure you take care of others as well.

So whereas your child might do well with COVID-19, and it might be a mild cold, we can't say the same about those immunocompromised children or elderly citizens out there.

So this is again, a public health issue at the forefront. So COVID-19 is not like the flu. It's not. And there is a vaccine out there for flu for children six months of age, as young as children six months of age that we know decreases risks of transmission and decreases severity of infection.

I don't love that my children have to wear masks and this is almost all they know as well, but I will continue to do what I can to protect them and protect those around them. And when it comes to the quality of masks, you're right, Pam, there is a C.D.C. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report that shows a beautiful infographic that shows no mask, cloth mask, surgical mask and then a highest quality, N95 mask, and the protection it can afford you, and it is an 80 percent lower risk of testing positive.

So I have my children in a high quality KF94 mask right now, because again, I want to try to keep them protected, but those around them.

Now, when it comes down to does this affect our children? I'm not going to, you know, lightly sugarcoat it, it does. This pandemic has cause micro and macro tears in the society -- the fabric of our society, and it's going to take a long time to recover.

But one thing I know for sure, as an expert in Pediatric Medicine and children is that children are resilient. And they absolutely feed off our attitude. So when we tell them that these measures are important to keep them safe, then they will continue to do what they can to protect themselves and protect others.

Another thing I know --

BROWN: Go ahead, quickly. It's okay. I know we're all passionate about this. Go ahead.

HUSAIN: One thing to know is that by getting rid of masks doesn't make the pandemic go away. It's actually the other way around. Trying to solve the pandemic will eventually make masks go away.

Just because you have a cut doesn't mean that the Band-Aid is the thing that hurts it, it's actually the pain of the cut. So we know that doing these important measures can keep schools open and keep our kids safe.

BROWN: All right, Dr. Husain, Dr. Noble -- that was a civil discussion, a great discussion, a lot of important information for parents to consider.

We'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[19:43:28]

BROWN: Breaking News: Russian troops on the move near Ukraine. CNN has obtained these satellite images appearing to show new activity among Russian forces near Ukraine's northeastern border.

According to Colorado based, Maxar, the images show units that were in garrisons, now apparently taking up field positions in cities just 20 miles from Ukraine.

The images also appear to show encampments or staging grounds that had substantial forces just a week ago, now relatively empty.

Joining us now is Glenn Gerstell. He was General Counsel for the National Security Agency in both the Obama and Trump administrations.

Hi, Glenn. Can you discern anything from these new satellite images? What do they tell you?

GLENN GERSTELL, FORMER GENERAL COUNSEL FOR THE NATIONAL SECURITY AGENCY: It's pretty clear that this is part of Putin's pattern of ratcheting up the pressure to the maximum degree possible.

We've seen a steady drip by drip effort on the part of the Kremlin to increase troop presence, to engage in new exercises in Belarus showing off their missile capacity, fomenting further trouble in the eastern Ukraine, all part of an integrated pattern coupled with cyber activity to ratchet up the pressure to the maximum degree possible.

Putin is well aware that satellite images of course reveal this. This is all part of his plan to increase pressure. Only he knows exactly when and how he is going to push the button if he does.

BROWN: We know one of the signs U.S. officials are watching for is if Russia begins launching cyberattacks. They've already attributed attacks that just happened last week to Russia, very quick attribution, but what sorts of cyber activity should we expect if the Russians do pull the trigger?

[19:45:14]

GERSTELL: If the Russians do pull the trigger, I think the first thing you'll see will be some kind of pretext, some kind of manufactured pretext justifying the invasion.

The United States has done a good job thus far of revealing and exposing some of these possible plots on the part of the Kremlin as manufactured pretext, showing them what they are, and that is throwing a little bit of probably year, a little bit of sand into the Putin's gears, so to speak, and slowed him down or deterred him.

But I think the first thing we'll see is some kind of pretext that will then be followed either by a very slow process of invasion and taking action in the eastern Ukraine, perhaps not aggressively militarily, but moving more slowly, because time could be to Putin's advantage or it could be a massive invasion, starting with cyberattacks on the electric grid and water supplies, sowing panic among the Ukrainian citizenry and sowing dissent, all in an effort to topple the Zelensky regime.

So exactly what course this will take is unclear. But I'm sure that cyber will play a major effect of this, and this will be really the first time, if it happens, I hope it doesn't, but this will really be the first time that cyber is used directly as part of an aggressive military action.

BROWN: Right. I think that that's a really important point here just that the new tools that are available, right, and warfare in cyber is a key part of that.

Glenn Gerstell, thank you for laying that out for us. We appreciate it.

GERSTELL: Thank you.

BROWN: Even before any possible invasion of Ukraine becomes reality, the threat of war is impacting financial markets.

Rana Foroohar is here with us, she is going to tell us how this could affect all of us. What is at stake for Americans, up next?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[19:51:30]

BROWN: Welcome back to the CNN NEWSROOM.

We're following breaking news tonight. Russia is on the move near the Ukrainian border. New satellite imagery showing intensified movements of Russian forces. You see that imagery right here, only 20 miles from Ukraine's northeastern border.

According to space tech company, Maxar, these images show multiple field deployments of armored equipment and troops, encampments, or staging grounds that contained substantial forces just one week ago are now relatively empty.

And all of this comes as CNN learns that the U.S. has Intelligence indicating orders have been sent to Russian commanders to proceed with an attack on Ukraine. That is according to multiple U.S. officials.

This hour, stock markets are reacting to the crisis unfolding in Ukraine. Tokyo has been trading for about 15 minutes now, stocks have been hammered while the world waits for Putin's next move.

CNN global economist and economic analyst, Rana Foroohar joins me now.

Hi, Rana.

So what sort of economic fallout are we going to see if an invasion of Ukraine goes ahead? What do we all need to brace for right now?

RANA FOROOHAR, CNN GLOBAL ECONOMIC ANALYST: Well, you know, we've got a little bit of a taste of this last week with the Dow doing very badly, racking up some of its worst days for the year, a lot of volatility.

You know, nobody wants a World War III in Europe. I mean, this is the biggest buildup of troops since 1945. That's something that makes markets very, very nervous.

Oil prices are going to be something that consumers will be watching very, very carefully. They're already up to relative highs, about $100.00 a barrel for a lot of reasons. But if you see a full-fledged invasion, I wouldn't be surprised if you saw a 20 percent price spike in oil that's going to hit people at the gas pumps.

Wheat prices are another thing to watch. Wheat, you know, bread prices, a lot of wheat coming out of the Ukraine. So you could see consumers, not just in America, but around the world being hit in the two things that really hurt, which is energy, you know, fueling up your car, heating your home, and what you're eating, what you're shopping for. These are all things that are going to be hit if there is an invasion, no question.

BROWN: Right, at a time where so many people are already suffering so much with inflation and with the supply chain crunch. So what's your advice for all of us as we're sort of bracing for worst case scenario here?

FOROOHAR: Yes, well, you know, to be honest, Pamela, there's not a lot that average individuals can do about a geopolitical conflict like this. On a practical level, it's a really good time to start getting your balance sheets in order. I mean, you know, we've talked about before, we're headed into a

period of higher interest rates, that makes any kind of debt that you have more expensive. If you start to see interest rates go up while you are also having the kind of inflation that could result from a conflict in Europe, that could really hit working people very, very hard.

So it's a good time to, you know, marshal your cash, rein in risky assets, pay off your debt and hold tight. Don't do anything day by day in a market like this.

BROWN: How concerned are you if Russia invades and there were sanctions imposed about the ripple effect from those sanctions, not just obviously to Russia, but beyond?

FOROOHAR: Well, I'm very concerned and I think it points to something bigger here, which is that we are in a new world. And you know, if you track back to how we got to where we are with Ukraine, in 2007, Putin gave a speech railing against the post-Cold War order, railing against American influence, then you saw invasions into Georgia, the annexation of the Crimea, action in Ukraine.

BROWN: Right.

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FOROOHAR: This is all part of Russia and to a certain extent, China saying, we are in a post U.S. us world and it's a new ballgame, and I think people understand that at some gut level, and that is feeding into anxiety, consumer anxiety, and citizens being very anxious.

BROWN: All right, always good to hear from you. Important to know what is at stake for us, Rana, thank you very much.

Our breaking news on the crisis between Ukraine and Russia continues with new U.S. Intel and satellite images adding to worries that an invasion of Ukraine will in fact happen.

We have reporters and experts ready to go up next.

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