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New Images Adds to U.S. Fears Russia Readying Military Action; French President Macron Proposes Summit with Biden, Putin; Families Near the Border Fear of an Invasion; Biden and Putin Accept Principle of Summit; Britain's Queen Elizabeth Tests Positive for COVID-19. Aired 8-9p ET
Aired February 20, 2022 - 20:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[20:00:27]
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
PAMELA BROWN, CNN HOST (voice-over): Tonight on the brink of war, Russia's heavily concentrated forces within striking distance of Ukraine.
LLOYD AUSTIN, DEFENSE SECRETARY: You could see a significant amount of combat power move very quickly to take Kyiv.
BROWN: But officials insist diplomacy is still viable.
ANTONY BLINKEN, SECRETARY OF STATE: Until the tanks are actually rolling and the planes are flying, we will use every opportunity and every minute we have to see if diplomacy can still dissuade President Putin.
KAMALA HARRIS, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We're talking about the potential for war in Europe.
BROWN: Vice President Harris rallies allies in Munich, vowing a swift, severe and united response if Russia invades Ukraine, as President Biden meets with the National Security Council promising unprecedented economic costs if Russia does not choose diplomacy.
JOE BIDEN, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: The West is united and resolved. We're ready to impose severe sanctions on Russia if it further invades Ukraine.
(END OF VIDEO CLIP)
BROWN: I'm Pamela Brown in Washington. You are live in the CNN NEWSROOM on this Sunday evening. And we begin this hour with breaking news in the Russia-Ukraine crisis.
Troubling new satellite imagery showing intensified movements of Russian forces near Ukraine's northeastern border. This is according to Colorado-based MAXAR. And these images show multiple field deployments of armored equipment and troops.
Also tonight, CNN has learned the U.S. has intel that indicates Russian commanders have received orders to proceed with an attack on Ukraine. That's according to two U.S. officials and another source familiar with the intelligence.
We're going to have more on that in just a moment. But first today, President Biden convened a rare Sunday meeting of the National Security Council in the White House situation room. CNN has learned the latest U.S. intel says Russia has put 75 percent of its conventional forces within striking distance. Ukraine is surrounded as you see right here on three sides, and now there is a disturbing new development from Belarus to the north.
Russia is extending its military drills there. They were supposed to end today. The Kremlin cites a weekend spike in violence in eastern Ukraine. Ukraine says Russian-backed separatists in the eastern part of the country violated the cease fire at least 74 times today. Moscow continues to encourage Ukrainian citizens to evacuate from the east and cross over into Russia. The U.S. and its allies fear the rising tensions in eastern Ukraine will be used as a pretext for Russia to launch an attack.
CNN is mobilizing its people and experts around the world to follow all of these latest developments. Let's begin in Ukraine. CNN chief national security correspondent Jim Sciutto is on the western edge of the country.
JIM SCIUTTO, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Pam, according to the latest U.S. intelligence assessment, orders have been sent to Russian tactical commanders to proceed with an invasion of Ukraine. This according to officials with direct knowledge of the intelligence telling myself and my colleague Natasha Bertrand.
We should be clear that this is one of several indicators that the U.S. is looking for that would indicate that an invasion is coming. This one has been observed but others, such as electronic jamming or massive cyberattacks on Ukraine, have not yet been observed. It is also worth noting that orders such as this can be rescinded or could be part of a disinformation campaign intended to mislead the U.S. and its allies.
However, this intelligence comes as we've heard public statements from the president, the vice president and the secretary of state in recent days saying that the U.S. now believes Putin has made the decision to invade Ukraine. Secretary of State Antony Blinken saying today, in his words, that the Russian playbook is moving forward -- Pam.
BROWN: Jim Sciutto, thanks so much.
Now let's go to the White House. That's where we find CNN's Arlette Saenz. What's the latest from this, Arlette?
ARLETTE SAENZ, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, Pamela, we have a very significant development tonight when it comes to the discussions and diplomatic efforts with Russia regarding Ukraine. The French government revealing that French President Macron proposed a summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and President Joe Biden, and according to a readout from the Elysee that says President Biden and Putin have both accepted the principle of such a summit.
It would be followed by one with relevant stake holders to discuss security and strategic stability in Europe. That is according to the French government. Now this meeting essentially the substance of it would be determined in that upcoming meeting between Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov which is set to be held on Thursday.
[20:05:14]
There is an important note in this, a readout from the French government which says it can only be held at the condition that Russia does not invade Ukraine. Now we are still waiting for confirmation from the White House about this possible summit between Biden and Putin but it certainly marks a major change in shift as the U.S. continues to pursue that diplomatic path to avert an invasion by Ukraine by Russia.
The White House and U.S. officials have really been signaling over the course of the past few days and the weekend that Russia could launch an attack against Ukraine at any moment, but they have been hopeful that there could still be a diplomatic off ramp that could be taken.
Now, top officials, U.S. officials spent part of the weekend in Europe where they met with allies to really rally and have this show of unity when it comes to addressing Russia and Ukraine. We know that President Biden today held a meeting, a rare Sunday meeting with his National Security adviser where he received the latest updates when it comes to Russia's military buildup with Ukraine.
Biden also spoke we were told for 15 minutes with the French president this afternoon where they talked about diplomatic and deterrence efforts as well. Of course if Biden and Putin were to meet, that would be a major, major moment as the U.S. is still trying to broker this diplomatic off-ramp when it comes to Ukraine. Biden and Putin last spoke on the phone last Saturday during which officials said there was really no major development during that conversation.
So now we await to see whether the White House will have any further explanation or confirmation of this proposed summit that French President Macron proposed between President Biden and President Putin -- Pamela.
BROWN: All right. Certainly a bit of a development here on this Sunday evening as things continue to escalate with Russia and Ukraine. We'll wait to hear what the White House says about this proposal.
Arlette Saenz, thanks so much.
And joining me now retired Army Lieutenant Colonel Alexander Vindman who served on the National Security Council and was its top expert on Ukraine.
So what do you think about what we just heard from Arlette, this potential summit that's being proposed between President Biden and Putin? Again, waiting to hear from the White House on this but what do you make of that?
LT. COL. ALEXANDER VINDMAN (RET), FORMER EUROPEAN AFFAIRS DIRECTOR, NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL: Well, I think it's worth an effort. I think until the first shots are fired, until the Russians cross the border, we should give diplomacy every possibility to try to unfold, to try to see if there is an offramp and de-escalate the situation. It just seems highly unlikely. It seems clear that Putin has calculated out the costs of this operation.
He understands the impact it will have both the positives and the negatives. The acquisition of Ukrainian territory, the show of Russian strength but also the economic impact, and it seems that he's basically prepared to bear those costs. And most of the diplomacy that's unfolded over the past couple of months has really been kind of shallow and more of an effort to indicate that Putin has done everything he could to come up with an alternative to war, and the West was just not receptive to all these different potential offramps.
Of course, none of them were really legitimate or palatable to the West. But that's what he's trying to do over the past couple of months. So it's hard to imagine that we're going to get anywhere, but Putin has the most flexibility out of any of these leaders because he's an autocrat, he can turn on a dime and if he calculates the costs are too high and he could do something face saving and do this summit, there is still a really small chance but there is still a chance that we could avert this situation, this war.
BROWN: You know, small chance. At the same time, we are seeing what appears to be more activity towards an invasion. When you look at these new satellite images that show these Russian forces dispersing closer to the Ukrainian border. When you look at this, what does that tell you?
VINDMAN: Well, it seems that they are moving into their tactical staging areas at this point. So those are not, maybe the kind -- not even the final positions that there'll be cell positions even close to the border. But this gets them really, really close. They probably have only one more move before they -- and that might be under the cover of fires before they jump off and conduct their military operation.
And I think it's exactly right to point out that, you know, with all this discussion about diplomacy, the facts on the ground show that we're actually headed in the other direction. We're headed towards this major unprovoked offensive by Russia. So what I -- and what that might look like really is there will be, like I said, another move, maybe in the next day or two to get forces closer but it will also probably occur with fires.
[20:10:03]
Long-range fires, aerial bombardments, cruise missile strikes, probably even kind of what are called non-kinetic fires like cyber operations, and targeting a critical infrastructure. All those things probably will unfold before the Russian forces actually cross the border on the ground, that is. BROWN: And of course, all of this is coming on the heels of this new
intelligence that U.S. officials are sharing that Russian commanders have been told to proceed with an attack on Ukraine. Our sources cautioned this could also be misinformation from the Russians to confuse the U.S. and its allies. As we know Russia is the master of disinformation. So how much can we read into this intelligence?
VINDMAN: I think we should probably take -- if the U.S. government is reporting it, I think they're vetting it. They have a lot of data points to corroborate this. I mean, we have a powerful all source intelligence apparatus that consists of human operations, signals intelligence, things that they're picking up from like radio chatter and stuff like that. And I think, you know, while it's possible that this is again just disinformation to indicate how serious this matter is and force either the West or more than likely Ukraine to bend, Ukraine is not bending.
Ukraine is unflinching and is not going to be forced into a compromise that sacrifices its sovereignty. So I think we should probably take it at face value but we should also realize that while they probably -- they certainly received this order, I think I would interpret it as be prepared to conduct military operations on, let's say, Wednesday, as just an example. It's a be prepared to as opposed to execute because that final order will come straight from the top.
BROWN: Right.
VINDMAN: That's the way the Russian system have worked. So right now they're preparing to do it but the final order before planes and missiles fly, before the Russian forces cross the border will come from the president and that's -- and that we won't miss that signal.
BROWN: Yes, I think that's an important point. A source told me today that this intelligence came to the U.S. last week. So it was behind what we heard from the secretary of State on Thursday, President Biden's comments Thursday and Friday, and so I think that's an important point because here we are on Sunday still the invasion hasn't happened.
I want to point out this tweet that you had put out earlier. This quote from a Putin press conference in 2002 about Ukraine's relationship with NATO, and it read, "I am absolutely convinced that Ukraine will not shy away from the processes of expanding interaction with NATO. Ukraine had its own relations with NATO. At the end of the day the decision is to be taken by NATO and Ukraine. It is a matter for those two partners."
This was in 2002. So why did you think it was important to tweet that? What do you make of this new found aggression?
VINDMAN: Well, I think it's really kind of a pushback on this idea that this narrative from Putin, the completely one-sided narrative, about NATO not enlarging one inch. This idea that there was some sort of agreement with Gorbachev in 1990 before the Soviet Union fell apart and it just was a snapshot in time. The Russians of the Soviet Union and the Russians never bought into this proposal. They never signed any documents. There was actually no evidence that
they agreed to it. And all I was just illustrating is that how complex this is, and how frequently things change. A decade later, Vladimir Putin says no issues with regards to Ukraine joining NATO. He actually said something a year later about the European Union and the association agreement which was the reason that he conducted his military operation in 2014.
It was because Ukrainians decided that they were going to pursue an EU association agreement. The problem is that if we take these things as kind of just, you know, simple and cherry-picked simple events, we miss really the trendlines and the trendlines over the tenure of Putin's rule were always towards greater belligerence, towards assertion of privilege sphere of influence and, you know, he changed his mind based on whatever the environment was at the moment. And part of that is driven by the fact that he was not getting a great deal of push back from the West.
From the U.S. or the European Union, we kind of said, well, maybe the Russians can still do better. They could still be democratic. And we had a lot of wishful thinking about the direction of the country. We didn't take a cool appraisal where that relationship was going. Didn't push back on their turn towards aggression. We saw that unfolding in 2007, 2008 with the Georgia war. And it just, we were too slow to realize the direction we were going.
We were still thinking, you know, 2002 as opposed to 2008 or 2014 and we still have some wishful thinking about Russia today even, I think.
BROWN: All right. Lieutenant Colonel Alexander Vindman, great to hear your thoughts on this unfolding situation.
VINDMAN: Thank you.
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BROWN: And we have this video to share with you now of how volatile the situation on the border between Russia and Ukrainians.
You're looking at Ukrainian officials and foreign reporters running away from what appears to be shelling as they visited the conflict zone in eastern Ukraine yesterday. The group was driving to a, quote, "observational outpost" in the Donetsk region when they had to take shelter from apparent incoming fire.
Ukraine's Donbas region is on the front lines along the eastern border with Russia. CNN's Sam Kylie visited a town there that shares its name with a vastly different and much larger American metropolis. Sam explains many residents in Ukraine's New York fear a Russian invasion is imminent.
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SAM KILEY, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): In a small town called New York in eastern Ukraine, and a short flight for a mortar bomb from rebel territory, lies Slavyanska Street. After eight years of war so close to the front line, homes here are almost worthless. These houses haven't been smashed by war. They've been destroyed by the poverty conflict brings. Torn down and sold as recycled bricks and tiles, locals tell us that these houses sell for about 70 bucks.
(On-camera): This is the end of Slavyanska Street. Now just down there is the checkpoint and beyond that is rebel held territory. And in the last hour or so we've heard at least eight explosions.
(Voice-over): Lilia is 3. She's out amid the shelling with her mom, lending a hand, playing with the family pup through a gate riddled with shrapnel holes from a shell that landed before she was born. Her parents tell her that the latest barrage is thunder. But it is something to worry about.
LIUDMILA PONOMARENKO, RESIDENT OF NEW YORK, UKRAINE: (Graphics) She does not understand. But very soon she will understand because she is 3. So now we are thinking about whether we stay here.
KILEY: Andrey is a rescue worker. He is acutely aware of the surge in recent shelling. According to Ukrainian authorities, there were at least 70 strikes along the front line that Saturday.
(On-camera): So what kind of life do you think your daughter is going to have?
ANDREY PONOMARENKO, RESIDENT OF NEW YORK, UKRAINE: (Graphics) How could I know? There is no stability in the country. I'm doing my best to provide all that's needed. But still, I can't change reality.
KILEY (voice-over): The increased Russian-backed rebel shelling that killed two government soldiers on Saturday is being seen as a possible prelude to a Russian invasion, perhaps along this very street.
Across the road, Maxim draws water from a well. This community is sliding back into the 19th century. And fear bears down on everyone.
(On-camera): Is there much shelling?
VALENTINA, RESIDENT OF NEW YORK, UKRAINE: (Graphics) There, you hear it. Yes.
KILEY: You've had this for a long time. Are you feeling frightened now though?
VALENTINA: (Graphic) Yes, I'm scared, very scared.
KILEY (voice-over): But many living in Ukraine's New York are trapped by these wartime blues.
MAXIM, RESIDENT OF NEW YORK, UKRAINE: (Graphics) Where should we go? Why? Nobody cares. And where should we get money to live and rent? So that is why we are staying in this house.
KILEY: Sam Kiley, CNN, New York, Ukraine.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BROWN: You're in the CNN NEWSROOM. If you're just now joining our breaking news coverage, we have this update for you. We are learning that Presidents Biden and Putin have agreed to a new summit proposed by French President Macron. Plus CNN is getting new satellite images that show intensified activity among Russian units close to Ukraine's northeastern border.
We're going to break it all that down, all the new headlines with CNN military analyst and retired Air Force Colonel Cedric Leighton, and CNN global affairs analyst Susan Glasser. Up next.
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BROWN: This just into CNN, the French President's Office says Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin have agreed in principle to a summit on the Ukraine crisis. Now we're still awaiting confirmation on that from the White House, obviously, though, that appears to be a big development coming from the French.
Also tonight, CNN has obtained satellite images appearing to show new activity among Russian forces near Ukraine's northeastern border according to Colorado-based MAXAR. The images show units that were garrisons, now taking up field positions just 20 miles from Ukraine.
Here with me now, our CNN military analyst and retired Air Force Colonel Cedric Leighton and CNN global affairs analyst Susan Glasser. She's also a staff writer for the "New Yorker."
All right, so let's talk about what we're getting from this French readout, Susan. This talk of a summit between Biden and Putin. Does such a summit play right into Russia's hands? They've had a summit before, last year, of course, here we are with Russian troops moving closer to the Ukrainian border. What do you think about this?
SUSAN GLASSER, CNN GLOBAL AFFAIRS ANALYST: Well, it's almost the very definition of high stakes diplomacy, isn't it, if it actually comes off. You know, it really feels like an 11th hour attempt to head off a war that seems to be already setting in motion. It's very interesting and notable I think that the French President Macron was making round of shuttle diplomacy phone calls today to Putin and then to Biden and then back to Putin.
By the way, he spoke with Putin --
BROWN: Oh, we just lost Susan. Yes, there were -- it has been interesting. There were two calls with Macron. Macron spoke with Putin. There's been a lot of back and forth today. In fact I spoke to one official earlier today.
Susan, you're back. I was just going to say, I spoke to one official today who sort of downplayed Macron as a key person with diplomacy but if in fact the French suggested this and if in fact a summit happens, this seems to be significant. [20:25:16]
GLASSER: Yes, I think that's right. I think it would obviously be very significant but not without great risk for President Biden. Now, one thing that struck my ear was that in principle loophole, which is a pretty giant loophole and it suggests that this is a summit that may never happen. When I lived in Russia for four years, believe me the phrase in principle is one that covers all manner of things and it really doesn't suggest that something is definitely going to happen but that maybe it will.
BROWN: What do you make of this, Colonel Leighton?
COL. CEDRIC LEIGHTON, CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Well, Pamela, I agree with Susan. This is something that could happen. It would be nice if it did happen but we can't bank on it. And Ukraine certainly can't bank on it happening. So I think if it does occur, it will be, you know, a good sign that there is a way to get out of this precipice that we found ourselves in at least that Russia and Ukraine have found themselves in.
But if it doesn't happen, and the chances are that it may not, then, you know, we have to prepare for, you know, what we think might be the unfortunate inevitable nature of the military operations in this area.
BROWN: The inevitable according to U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is that Russia could belong to the biggest war in Europe since 1945. That is what he is warning about, Susan. What does that look like if Russia invades and it turns into, you know, a huge conflict?
GLASSER: Well, look, right now, you know, there are all kinds of scenarios. We have a sense that President Putin has, you know, given the order to uncoil, you know, the snake as it were. I believe that's the version of the phrase that you heard from the U.S. Defense secretary today. What does it mean? You know, it could be everything from an attack on the capital Kyiv itself to an attempt to officially take over the contested areas in eastern Ukraine, in the Donbas.
You know, Russia has a playbook of war because Vladimir Putin has gone to war repeatedly in recent years including horrific urban warfare inside Russia itself in Chechnya, and that, I think, is the scenario also replayed to a certain extent as Russia helped its ally, the Assad regime in Syria, and so, you know, that's one truly horrific scenario. The question of air power, which menaces the entire country of Ukraine and which Ukraine is not really in a position to contest is something to think about.
The fact that there are essentially troops on three sides of Ukraine at this moment, including in Belarus where they are now staying just two hours from the capital.
BROWN: Right. And we keep hearing this talk of keeping the door open for diplomacy but at this point, Colonel Leighton, what could change, move the needle for Vladimir Putin? I mean, what hasn't been said or done yet that should have been done or, you know, what is there left for him to calculate with invading Ukraine at this point? LEIGHTON: Well, I think the one thing, you know, from this standpoint
that Putin would look at, I think the big thing here would be, you know, is there another set of sanctions that's coming and if so, what are those sanctions that could be a potential deterrent. The other thing would be if Ukraine for some reason and some miracle got some extra defense capabilities through NATO that were able to be implemented very quickly.
That's of course something that is highly unlikely at this juncture but, you know, that would be something that could potentially tip the balance a bit. And then, you know, frankly, it could also be a series of different calculations that he may be looking at more from a political standpoint if he looks at the future of this, what this means for Russia and for his legacy. At some point he may realize that this at least in the West won't burnish his legacy at all.
BROWN: All right. Colonel Cedric Leighton, Susan Glasser, thank you both.
LEIGHTON: You bet.
BROWN: The White House says Russia's invasion of Ukraine could happen at any time but Russia's disinformation campaign is well underway. We're going to take a closer look up next.
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BROWN: We have just learned that French President Emmanuel Macron has proposed a summit between Russia and the United States during an hourlong call with President Joe Biden earlier this evening. Now according to this readout, the French government says that both President Biden and President Putin agreed to the summit on principle. CNN has not yet confirmed that with representatives in the U.S. or Russia.
This as new satellite imagery shows intensified movements of Russian forces near Ukraine's northeastern border and amid a spike in violence that has heightened fears that Russia could launch an attack at any moment.
We want to show you the scene earlier today at the "Stand with Ukraine" rally here in the Washington, D.C. area. Several pro- Ukrainian groups gathering at the Lincoln Memorial to show solidarity and to petition the Biden administration to sanction Russia.
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UNIDENTIFIED MALE: My heart is worried about Ukraine. I don't want another war. I don't want struggles, blood and all of that.
[20:35:02]
And Ukraine went through this many times. And there's no need for this now. So I support all the Ukrainians that came together, also here to send message to Washington, to Biden and everybody else. You need to do something more radical to stop all this.
(END OF VIDEO CLIP)
BROWN: And we just have this new information coming in from the White House from the Press Secretary Jen Psaki. And this is according to what we heard from the French that this proposed summit has been accepted by President Putin and President Biden in principle. Here is what the White House is saying tonight.
"As the president has repeatedly made clear, we are committed to pursuing diplomacy until the moment an invasion begins. Secretary Blinken and Foreign Minister Lavrov are scheduled to meet later this week in Europe provided Russia does not proceed with military action. President Biden accepted in principle a meeting with President Putin following that engagement again if an invasion hasn't happened. We are always ready for diplomacy. We are also ready to impose swift and severe consequences should Russia instead choose war. And currently Russia appears to be continuing preparations for a full-scale assault on Ukraine very soon."
Now we're waiting to hear back from Russia in response to all of this but I'm going to go back to Arlette Saenz from the White House.
Arlette, this is certainly seemed to be a big development tonight.
SAENZ: Yes, Pamela, the White House has long said that they are pursuing that diplomatic offramp to try to deescalate the situation with Russia and Ukraine, and this commitment in principle to a possible summit between Biden and Putin does mark a significant development but it's also important to note that the administration remains cleareyed about Russia's intentions at this moment. If you take a look at that statement that you just read from White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki, they very clearly state that this will only move forward if there isn't an invasion and at the very end says and currently, Russia appears to be continuing preparations for a full- scale assault on Ukraine very soon.
So while they are agreeing to hold this summit in principle, they are still very aware of the movements that Russian President Vladimir Putin has been making towards an invasion into Ukraine. We have heard the administration including from President Biden himself saying that they believe that Putin has made that decision to move forward with an attack. So while this does open the door to more diplomatic talks, I think the White House is also making clear that they are clear eyed about what Putin's intentions are at this moment, and continue to stress this summit would only take place if there is not an invasion by Russia.
BROWN: It also raises the question if this is a move to try to buy time because it's been talked about time and time again that Russia would need frozen ground for the tanks to move in and you would get to a certain point where that's no longer the case if you buy more time. Had this been something you've been hearing about this proposal behind the scenes or is this fresh news to you, this proposal and now of course, this acceptance in principle of a summit if Russia doesn't invade? SAENZ: Well, Pamela, earlier today Secretary of State Antony Blinken
told our colleague Dana Bash that President Biden would be open to engaging with Putin in any format and at any time. We know that Biden and Putin last spoke last Saturday while the president was at Camp David and officials after that call said that there weren't many fundamental changes to this situation, but the White House has insisted that they do want to keep diplomacy on the table even as they have seen Russia building up the presence of its military along the borders of Ukraine.
We know that top U.S. officials spent part of the weekend in Europe speaking with allies, President Biden himself today speaking for 15 minutes on the phone with the French president where according to a White House readout at the time said that they talked about diplomacy and deterrence efforts. So the White House has said that the president is willing to talk to and engage with Putin but only if it would be in a situation where they could try to avoid a full-scale war between Russia and Ukraine.
So we will see whether this summit, of course, they're saying they're agreeing to it in principle. It's unclear if it would actually happen especially as we've seen Russia making these moves when it comes to Ukraine but it is some glimmer of hope that diplomacy could be an answer to this crisis.
BROWN: Certainly a glimmer of hope. All right, Arlette Saenz, terrific reporting from the White House tonight.
And up next on this Sunday, new satellite images appear to show Russian troops on the move near Ukraine's northeastern border. This was taken Sunday. CNN national security analyst Beth Sanner joins me next with new insight on how China is reacting to these fast-moving events.
[20:40:05]
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BROWN: More now on our breaking news tonight, President Biden has agreed in principle to meet with Vladimir Putin if an invasion of Ukraine has not happened. A statement from the White House reads, "We are always ready for diplomacy." But it also notes that Russia appears to be moving toward an invasion.
Joining me now Beth Sanner, CNN national security analyst.
[20:45:01]
Beth, you served as deputy director of National Intelligence during the Trump administration. What do you think about a possible summit to avert an invasion? Do you think it's realistic at all?
BETH SANNER, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY ANALYST: Well, I think it's something that you just have to do. It would be diplomatic malpractice if you didn't go ahead and do this sort of thing. I do think that at this point, you know, I lean toward this being more of a delaying tactic. We still haven't seen that large pretext. We see a building pretext but we don't have that one event that helps justify going in, and I think it also makes Putin look like a statesman like he's trying to do the right thing and, you know, the sides are just very, very far apart.
BROWN: Yes. To say the least. There are new satellite images that show intensified movements of Russian forces near Ukraine's northeastern border. According to Colorado-based MAXAR, these images show multiple field deployments of armored equipment and troops.
When you see this, and I think we can put up the map where you see Ukraine covered like a horseshoe, its border with Russian troops and everything else going on, does all of this indicate to you that Russia is going to be launching a major attack, not just, you know, a small- scale invasion, and of course, the president of Ukraine would say there is no such thing as a small-scale invasion but what does all this point to you?
SANNER: You know, the intelligence that we're hearing if you combine that with the other intelligence that's been released, it does combine, you know, facts on the ground, things that now all Americans can see, thanks to this open-source overhead that is now available to everyone, it's kind of hard not to think that this is going to be a press on all three fronts.
Now, you know, the intelligence can always be a little off. The intent is sometimes unclear and commanders can decide to change things up, you know, at the end and in order to keep people off balance so Putin is a master at keeping people off balance, so, you know, we could have it start in a different way than is expected. It might not be as expected, you know, the missiles flying into Kyiv. But, you know, he had all those options on the table.
BROWN: Yes, we heard the Finnish president tell CNN today that he believes Putin is being unpredictable by design, trying to confusion everyone.
I want to talk about this development coming from China. A few minutes ago, a senior Chinese government official tweeted that the territorial integrity of all countries should be respected including Ukraine. The Chinese Foreign minister had said the same thing at the Munich conference. This seems to be significant. Is China sending a message to Vladimir Putin here, as we know Putin was just in Beijing, you know, trying to tout the alliance with China?
SANNER: So at a minimum I think that China is sending a message to us and to the Europeans. China's trade with the U.S. and Europe is 10 times that with Russia. China has a lot to lose as a trading power. They have a lot to lose from higher oil prices. So any kind of instability in the world and especially at this scale is absolutely against Chinese interest and this idea of territorial integrity and sovereignty is absolutely consistent with Chinese foreign policy.
So it's not a change. I think that, you know, Russia certainly will be very disappointed in hearing this said publicly, but China does not want to be lumped with Russia in being blamed for supporting Russia for this invasion. They cannot afford to risk their trade and other relationships in order to do that. But that doesn't mean that behind the scenes they won't still support Russia.
BROWN: Yes, that's a key point. Beth Sanner, thank you.
And we're following this breaking news on multiple fronts regarding Ukraine. Much more when we come back. But first, an update on Queen Elizabeth who has tested positive for COVID.
You're in the CNN NEWSROOM.
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[20:53:42]
BROWN: Not long after marking her 70th anniversary on the British throne, Queen Elizabeth has tested positive for COVID. CNN's Max Foster has more details from Windsor Castle.
MAX FOSTER, CNN ROYAL CORRESPONDENT: Pam, the Queen is receiving medical attention in the castle behind me. There appears to have been some sort of outbreak according to my sources within the castle and the Queen caught COVID. She was tested on Sunday morning and they released the results pretty quickly.
We are told, though, they are really emphasizing the fact that she has mild cold-like symptoms and that she is at her desk carrying out light duties. She sent a letter of congratulations, for example, on Sunday afternoon to the British Olympic team. So they're emphasizing that and they're really trying to calm nerves, I guess. But she is nearly 96 years old. And we're told that she is meeting all the current regulations which would mean she'd have to be self-isolating.
She'll be on her own at a time that she feels pretty unwell anyway. She had a meeting the other day in the week and she was unable to move. I was told by sources that she felt sick as opposed to injured. Nevertheless, not a particularly comfortable position for a 95-year- old to be in. So they'll be watching very closely and they'll be monitoring her -- Pam.
BROWN: Yes, we wish her the very best.
And before we wrap things up tonight, I want to just show you what we have about Ukrainians coming together in unity.
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The scene earlier today at the "Stand with Ukraine" rally here in Washington, D.C. Several pro-Ukrainian groups gathering at the Lincoln Memorial to show solidarity and to petition the Biden administration to sanction Russia.
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UNIDENTIFIED MALE: My heart is worried about Ukraine. I don't want another war. I don't want struggles, blood and all of that. And Ukraine went through this many times. And there's no need for this now. So I support all the Ukrainians that came together, also here to send message to Washington, to Biden and everybody else. You need to do something more radical to stop all this.
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BROWN: I'm Pamela Brown. We'll see you again next weekend. "LBJ, TRIUMPH AND TRAGEDY" is next.
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