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CNN Team, Ukrainian Minister Come Under Mortar Fire; Russia Is Tightening Its Military Grip Around Ukraine; U.S. Officials Believe Putin Has Made Decision To Invade Ukraine; Olympic Winter Games Final Day; Hong Kong Steps Up Efforts To Contain COVID-19; Lviv Mayor Says Residents Living A "Normal" Life; Ukraine Crisis Giving Unprecedented Look At Military Maneuvers; Northwest Europe Dealing With Aftermath Of Powerful Storm Eunice. Aired 3-4a ET
Aired February 20, 2022 - 03:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[03:00:00]
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MICHAEL HOLMES, CNN ANCHOR AND CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Hello, everyone. I'm Michael Holmes, coming to you live from Ukraine.
The leader of this country telling CNN, the time to act against Russia is now, as Moscow builds up its forces around Ukraine's border. We'll have part of President Zelensky's interview with our chief international anchor, Christiane Amanpour.
KIM BRUNHUBER, CNN ANCHOR AND CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): I'm Kim Brunhuber, live from CNN headquarters in Atlanta. We're just hours away from the Olympic closing ceremony, where history-making athletes will bear the U.S. flag.
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HOLMES: Welcome, everyone. We begin here in Ukraine, where the threat of a Russian attack seems to grow by the day. As the U.S. warns Moscow could strike at any time, President Biden will be meeting with his National Security Council in the hours ahead.
Still, Western leaders are making an 11th hour push for diplomacy. French president Emmanuel Macron spoke with Ukraine's president on Saturday ahead of a telephone call with Russia's president, Vladimir Putin.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Faster. Go, go, go.
HOLMES (voice-over): On the front lines, though, no sign tensions are cooling. A CNN team, on tour with Ukraine's interior minister, coming under mortar fire on Saturday, the latest example of escalating cease- fire violations in the east of this country. And some in the West warn, the worst could soon come.
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LIZ TRUSS, U.K. FOREIGN SECRETARY AND MINISTER FOR WOMEN AND EQUALITIES: There are many people who would want to think hopefully about the situation. But I think we need to prepare for the worst-case scenario. And that worst-case scenario could happen as early as next week.
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HOLMES: World leaders gathered for the Munich Security Conference this weekend, the Ukrainian President Zelensky among those taking the stage on Saturday, as U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris had this warning for Russia.
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KAMALA HARRIS (D), VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Let me be clear: I can say with absolute certainty, if Russia further invades Ukraine, the United States, together with our allies and partners, will impose significant and unprecedented economic costs.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HOLMES: As we just mentioned, the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, attended that Munich Security Conference on Saturday. And he sat down with CNN's Christiane Amanpour for a lengthy interview.
Mr. Zelensky had some criticism for the sanctions strategy the West is using to try to deter a Russian invasion. And he said Ukraine cannot remain passive as threats loom.
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VOLODYMYR ZELENSKY, UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT (through translator): We are being told that you have several days and then the war will start.
And I said, OK, then apply the sanctions today. Yes, they say, we apply sanctions when the war will happen. I'm saying, fine, but you are telling me that it's 100 percent that the war will start in a couple days.
Then what are you waiting for?
We don't need your sanctions after the bombardment will happen and after our country will be fired at or after we will have no borders, after we will have no economy or part of our countries will be occupied. Why would we need sanctions then?
The intelligence I trust is my intelligence.
I trust Ukrainian intelligence in our territory who understand what's going on along our borders, who have different intelligent sources and understand different risk-based on intercepted data. We're talking about how this information should be used.
I repeated this many times. We are not really living in delusion. We understand what can happen tomorrow.
But maybe the comparison I will make is not good but just putting ourselves in coffins and waiting for foreign soldier to come in is not something we are prepared to do.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HOLMES: Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky there.
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HOLMES: Let's bring in Orysia Lutsevych in London, manager of the Ukraine Forum in the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House.
[03:05:00]
HOLMES: Great to have your expertise on this. We've seen this uptick in violence along the line of contact, the artillery fire that's going on today, right now, in fact.
Is Donbas at the top of your list of where Russian troops could step over the border, if they do?
ORYSIA LUTSEVYCH, MANAGER, UKRAINE FORUM, RUSSIA AND EURASIA PROGRAMME, CHATHAM HOUSE: Let's be clear that the Russian troops are already inside Donbas. They have been there at a limited capacity, directing these militant formations from 2014, when they captured the region.
And they were integrating these military formations as part of Russian (INAUDIBLE) military district. So we see right now they're ramping up fire. There were more than 60 violations.
They're ramping up disinformation, saying that civilians of those territories may be attacked by Ukrainian armed forces. They are evacuating civilians and this could give a pretext for Russia to come and defend Russian citizens and Russian speakers. So absolutely, yes, this is the whole flashing point that we should all watch.
HOLMES: The West, of course, as we all know, was caught napping when Russia annexed Crimea. I was there when that happened.
Do you think Mr. Putin has been caught a little off guard by the strength of the West's response and resolve this time?
LUTSEVYCH: You are right to describe, that in 2014, everybody were disturbed, confused by Putin's implausible deniability that he's not involved. But this time is different. We have those intelligence reports shared publicly, exposing the nature of Russian plans to subjugate Ukraine.
And this time the West is saying, with rather united voice, that Ukraine matters for European security, that it's not some kind of squabble in Russians' backyard, where it's up to Russia to decide the future of this nation. We see quite resolute support for Ukraine. Of course, it differs from
nation to nation to the degree it's ready to support. But there's a clear message: Ukraine has to remain a territorially integral sovereign state.
HOLMES: As you point out, there is a lot of support for Ukraine in the West.
But is it enough?
I mean, if Russian troops suddenly pour across the borders, what more should or could the West do, other than sanctions?
LUTSEVYCH: Well, I think there has to be two very important pillars of Ukraine support. One is internal, to support Ukraine's armed forces and Ukrainian economy to persevere because we are here for a long haul of this war of attrition.
And regardless of what kind of military operation Russia undertakes next week, Ukraine will be under pressure from the Russian Federation because of its desire to control Ukraine.
So Ukraine needs more military assistance. Ukraine needs more economic assistance to sustain an economy, to maintain stability. Also some of the sanctions that are already being designed, especially to those of wealthy Russian oligarchs, their money in the city of London, in the United States, in offshore jurisdictions, they should be sanctioned and frozen.
We don't need to wait for invasion for this to happen. These are illicit financial flows.
HOLMES: I'm curious; including Ukraine but also looking further afield, how do you think Vladimir Putin views himself in terms of his role in the post-Soviet Russia world?
Do you think he sees independence for Ukraine -- and others, for that matter -- as mistakes that he feels he needs to correct?
LUTSEVYCH: I mean, we all know from history that empires do not fall overnight. They are collapsing slowly. And perhaps it was our mistake to believe that the dissolution of the Soviet Union was actually the end of that red empire.
What we see right now is sort of the convulsion of that collapse. And President Putin is trying to reverse history. He's trying to regain control of the territories, from Kazakhstan, to Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia.
In a way, he feels a certain sense of entitlement because that sphere of influence and that control gives him more power over Europe, makes Russia, the way he sees in his mind, a superpower, that has the right to sit at the global table, jointly with United States and China.
So he's thinking of his legacy project. And clearly that region is a crown jewel for him to re-establish Russia's greatness. HOLMES: We're nearly out of time.
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HOLMES: So real quick, if you can but to that point, is it fair to say that Mr. Putin has long thought he is not given due status as a global leader and that this is giving him a platform, a spotlight he's been wanting for so long?
How much is ego?
LUTSEVYCH: I think he really feels personally humiliated by the collapse of the Soviet Union and what he believes was the end of Cold War, where U.S. saw a loss. I think it's a very dangerous sentiment when you think about leaders having that sense of humiliation.
They say Crimea's annexation helped Russia to get off its knees. Now Russia wants to put the West on its knees by doing this military posturing and threatening Europe. So we are really in precarious times.
HOLMES: Orysia Lutsevych, really appreciate your expertise. Fascinating insights. Thank you for being with us.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
HOLMES: While the world watches and waits for Russia and Vladimir Putin's next move, civilians in Ukraine are bracing and, in some cases, training for possible war. CNN's Erin Burnett spoke with residents, who say they are ready to fight.
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ERIN BURNETT, CNN HOST (voice-over): This weekend in Lviv, Ukraine, a few hundred civilians gathering to prepare defense training sessions. People of all ages but most of them young. The youngest, for us, the most jarring to see.
Natalya was here with her daughters, Kalina (ph) and Hafia (ph). She tells me she talks to them all the time about possible war with Russia.
NATALYA, UKRAINIAN SURGEON: Yes, we always talk about this about, about war and we have a plan. That's why we're here.
BURNETT (voice-over): The training organized by a far right political party and overseen by the Ukrainian government's Territorial Defense Forces.
People today learning hand to hand knife fighting with sticks using wooden guns to practice shooting around corners, shooting rifles in group tactical target practice and listening to how to handle bazookas, detonators and mines.
Four-year-old Kalina, paying close attention. Her mother tells me she is most worried they won't leave in time if there is a full Russian invasion but Natalya says she stays because she's a surgeon.
BURNETT (on camera): And I know you want to stay here. Why?
NATALYA: Because I'm a doctor and I think I can help people when war will come to our home.
BURNETT (voice-over): Natalya's patriotism, a powerful symbol to Putin, up here on a windy hill above the city of Lviv, she and other Ukrainians taking this literally, "Don't panic. Prepare." -- Erin Burnett, CNN, Ukraine.
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HOLMES: All right, that will do it from here in Lviv in Western Ukraine. Back to Kim Brunhuber in Atlanta.
BRUNHUBER: All right, thanks so much, Michael.
The final whistle has blown on the Beijing Winter Olympics. And we're just hours away from the closing ceremony. We'll find out who won the medal count and some of the historic moments, coming up in a live report next.
Plus how Hong Kong is coping with the rise in COVID cases that's pushing its health system to the brink.
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BRUNHUBER: After 16 days of competition, the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics are now in the books as the final event of the games finished a short time ago. Finland won gold in men's ice hockey, beating the defending champions, the Russian Olympic Committee 2-1.
We're now about four hours away from the closing ceremony to what has turned out to be a historic competition.
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BRUNHUBER: U.S. health experts say a second booster dose of the COVID vaccine might be in the cards. An FDA official tells CNN, guidance might be needed, as we get closer to the last three months of the year.
It would have to be authorized by the Food and Drug Administration and renewed by the Centers for Disease Control.
In England, prime minister Boris Johnson is set to lay out the new plan for living with COVID. Downing Street says all regulations that restrict public freedoms will be repealed. They're calling it a move away from government intervention to personal responsibility.
And after nearly two years of strict pandemic rules, Australia will allow fully vaccinated international travelers into the country beginning Monday. Prime minister Scott Morrison says, pack your bags, come and have one of the greatest experiences you could ever imagine.
The latest COVID wave is overwhelming hospitals in Hong Kong. Mainland China has sent a second medical team to help with the surge in patients. Now some of the strictest quarantine and tracing measures in the world don't seem to be working.
For more let's bring in CNN's Vedika Sud, live from New Delhi.
Take us through how Hong Kong is trying to get a handle on this surge, leaving some patients waiting outside in the cold.
VEDIKA SUD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: According to officials early this week, public hospitals were overwhelmed because of this fifth wave, the most intense wave Hong Kong is experiencing, with 90 percent capacity full at these public hospitals.
That is indeed a reason to be concerned. We've just heard from two representatives from the Hong Kong administration. The first is the chief secretary, who said that Hong Kong has entered a state of full- scale combat.
Strong words coming from the leadership there. He's the number two in the leadership as far as Hong Kong's authority is concerned. And he's come out and said this is full-scale combat.
There are a lot of medical teams that have come into Hong Kong to help not only curb the escalating numbers when it comes to COVID-19 but also to treat and test people in Hong Kong. Testing will be intensified.
Remember, Hong Kong has 7 million people plus and it's going to be a huge task as they've promised to go ahead and ramp up testing. Also the health secretary has come out and said today that there is no way they can relax the social distancing norms.
Like you pointed out, Kim, Hong Kong has seen very stringent measures since the beginning of the pandemic. In fact, officials in Hong Kong, earlier this week, had gone on to say, in this fifth wave -- rather, ever since the beginning of this year, Hong Kong has seen more COVID- 19 cases than it has in the last two years.
What we do know is that another 20,000 beds have been identified as quarantine places for people in this business hub. Also there has been a groundbreaking ceremony that has taken place in Hong Kong for community isolation and for treatment units.
We believe that would be about 10,000 of them which will be constructed soon and will be delivered with the help of Mainland again.
The question is how long can Hong Kong, which has been adamant and stubborn on their zero COVID policy, how long can they continue with it?
The last two years they've had hospitals full of patients because of this policy, this strategy, where they believe that anyone who tests positive for COVID-19, even if their symptoms are mild or they don't have symptoms, has to be isolated or hospitalized.
And because of that, today, we are seeing hospitals overwhelmed and overburdened here.
BRUNHUBER: Creating a huge challenge for themselves. Vedika Sud in New Delhi, thank you so much.
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BRUNHUBER: Police in Canada's capital seem eager to end the protests that have locked the area around parliament in a stranglehold for weeks.
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BRUNHUBER: This was the scene in Ottawa on Saturday when protesters let off fireworks. Waves of police have arrested 170 people, including protest leaders. They've fired pepper spray and had dozens of trucks towed away.
But many diehard demonstrators vow to stay. Meanwhile, the government says it will give up to $20 million to businesses that have lost revenue because of the blockades.
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BRUNHUBER: Closing arguments start Monday in the federal hate crimes trial of three white men convicted of killing a Black jogger in Georgia. Both the government and the defense rested their cases Friday; 20 witnesses testified over four days in the trial of Travis McMichael, Gregory McMichael and William Roddie Bryan.
They've pleaded not guilty to charges of interference with rights, a hate crime and attempted kidnapping. They were convicted in November of felony murder and other charges in the death of Ahmaud Arbery two years ago.
Next, from military to monetary: how the situation in Ukraine is impacting the economy, not just there but on a global scale.
Plus CNN heads to a vulnerable town in Eastern Ukraine, where residents fear a Russian invasion is imminent.
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HOLMES: A warm welcome back to our viewers in the United States and all around the world. I'm Michael Holmes reporting live from Ukraine. You're watching CNN NEWSROOM.
[03:30:00]
HOLMES: Fears over Ukraine are having an impact on the global economy. The Dow ended last week in the red, following a severe sell- off on Thursday, its worst day so far of the year.
And then there's the impact on Ukraine itself. Ukraine International Airlines has had to reduce its fleets after insurance companies ended coverage, forcing the government to allocate nearly $600 million to continue flying.
And a massive cyber-attack on Ukraine, that targeted banks and government agencies. The Ukrainian president spoke to CNN's Christiane Amanpour about how the uncertainty is affecting the country on a daily basis.
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VOLODYMYR ZELENSKY, UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT (through translator): We cannot say on a daily basis that war will happen tomorrow. What kind of state is it going to be?
What kind of economy is it going to be?
How can you live in a state when on a daily basis you are being told tomorrow the war will happen, tomorrow the advance will happen?
It means crushing national currency, money is being taken out, business is flying out. Can you live in that kind of country?
Can you have stability in that kind of country?
No.
And those who want to disbalance our country from within are multiple. And everyone wants Ukraine to be weak, weak economy, weak army. And if there's a weak army, you can just go ahead and invade and we won't be able to protect our people, not our children or the economy.
This is why are response is very calm to one piece of information or the other. We have to assess it. We have to think not how to react to what I just got but I have to digest this information.
I have to understand what will happen after my words, after my reaction to this, what will happen to my people, what will happen after these people run to the banks to take money from their deposit accounts, after they start fearing and the panic will start.
We have the information war, the hybrid war going on. This is why Ukrainians are not given up in a different sense of this word. We want to live day after day and protect our country.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HOLMES: Earlier, I spoke with the mayor of Lviv about the looming military threat from Russia. He says his residents are ready to defend the city if Moscow escalates the conflict.
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HOLMES: What are you having to do to the city?
What sorts of changes have you had to make in case there is an invasion?
MAYOR ANDRIY SADOVYI, LVIV, UKRAINE (through translator): Six months ago, we started to prepare the city for an emergency situation; for example, how to provide water without electricity. And we are capable of doing that today.
We tripled our reserves of medical supplies. We increased the blood reserves. We rearranged the work of all our strategic enterprises. We are ready today to live life under extreme conditions.
HOLMES: What would the people of Lviv do if the Russians invaded?
How would they react?
SADOVYI (through translator): Firstly, people are ready to defend. The territorial defense is being actively developed, not only in Lviv but in all cities of Ukraine. In total, there are approximately 2 million people. They are learning how to use weapons and provide medical aid. This is our country and we must protect ourselves.
HOLMES: How has this tension, this threat, impacted your city and the mood of the city?
SADOVYI (through translator): If you see the life in Lviv or in other cities, you will see no tension. Only a person who watches the news would be worried. Everyone here lives a normal life. Yet everyone is getting ready. This energy for preparation gives strength and certainty. Lviv is a safe city and we have welcomed all of them.
HOLMES: Did you ever think as mayor you would be running a city under the threat of Russian invasion?
SADOVYI (through translator): It has been happening for eight years already. And today, we have understood that the threat coming from Russia is stronger than ever. It can happen tomorrow. It can happen in a month. It can happen in a year because Russia wants to destroy Ukraine. And it wants to destroy the whole democratic world.
That is why we have to be like a lion, to push the bear back to its den.
HOLMES: If Russian officials were listening to this interview right now, what would you say to them?
SADOVYI (through translator): If they attack us, then they will suffer from big losses in both military personnel and equipment. This is our free land. And we will never give it to anyone.
[03:35:00] SADOVYI: (Speaking Ukrainian). Never give up.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
HOLMES: Ukraine's Donbas region is on the front lines, of course, along the country's eastern border with Russia. CNN's Sam Kiley visited a town there that shares its name with a vastly different and much larger American metropolis. As Sam explains, many residents in Ukraine's New York fear a Russian invasion is imminent.
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SAM KILEY, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): In a small town called New York, in Eastern Ukraine, and a short flight for a mortar bomb from rebel territory, lies Slavyanska Street.
After eight years of war, so close to the front line, homes here are, almost, worthless. These houses haven't been smashed by war; they've been destroyed by the poverty that conflict brings. Torn down and sold as recycled bricks and tiles, locals tell us these houses sell for about 70 bucks.
KILEY: This is the end of Slavyanska Street. Just down there is the checkpoint and, beyond that, is rebel held territory. In the last hour or so, we have heard at least eight explosions.
KILEY (voice-over): Lilly (ph) is 3. She's out, amid the shelling, with her mum, lending a hand, playing with the family pup through a gate riddled with shrapnel holes, from a shell that landed before she was born. Her parents tell her that the latest barrage is thunder. But it is something to worry about.
LIUDMILA PONOMARENKO, RESIDENT OF NEW YORK, UKRAINE (from captions): She does not understand. But very soon she will understand because she is 3. So now we are thinking about whether we stay here.
KILEY (voice-over): Andrey is a rescue worker. He is acutely aware of the surge in recent shelling. According to Ukrainian authorities, there were at least 70 strikes along the front line that Saturday.
KILEY: So what kind of life do you think your daughter is going to have?
ANDREY PONOMARENKO, RESIDENT OF NEW YORK, UKRAINE (from captions): How could I know?
There is no stability in the country. I'm doing my best to provide all that's needed. But still, I can't change reality.
KILEY (voice-over): The increased Russian-backed rebel shelling that killed two government soldiers on Saturday is being seen as a possible prelude to a Russian invasion, perhaps along this very street.
Across the road, Matsun (ph) draws water from a well. This community is sliding back into the 19th century. And fear bears down on everyone. KILEY: Is there much shelling?
MATSUN (PH), RESIDENT OF NEW YORK, UKRAINE (from captions): There, you hear it. Yes.
KILEY: You have had this for a long time.
Are you feeling frightened now though?
MATSUN (PH) (from captions): Yes, I'm scared, very scared.
KILEY (voice-over): Many living in Ukraine's New York are trapped by these wartime blues.
A. PONOMARENKO (from captions): Where should we go?
Why?
Nobody cares.
And where should we get money to live and rent?
So that is why we are staying in this house.
KILEY (voice-over): Sam Kiley, CNN, New York, Ukraine.
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HOLMES: That will do it from us here in Lviv in Western Ukraine. For now, back to Kim Brunhuber.
BRUNHUBER: Thanks so much, Michael.
There are more developments from the Munich Security Conference on Iran. The country's foreign minister says Tehran is ready for an immediate prisoner swap with the U.S. This as Iran's foreign minister told CNN's Christiane Amanpour it's optimistic a nuclear deal with world powers can be salvaged. Here he explained why.
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HOSSEIN AMIR-ABDOLLAHIAN, IRANIAN FOREIGN MINISTER (through translator): We are very optimistic about the results of the Vienna talks.
But why are we optimistic?
It is because the administration of the new president of Iran, Dr. Raisi, has this serious will to achieve a good deal with the other side, as the result of the Vienna talks. Now we are at a very sensitive time and the other side should be realistic.
And if the talks fail, we believe that it is the Americans and the other side that are responsible for it. And the summit called Iran (ph) has shown a seriousness and has shown that it really wants the deal to be done. And we have been trying to reach the deal. (END VIDEO CLIP)
BRUNHUBER: Now according to France, discussions between Europe, the U.S., Russia and Iran over the future of the nuclear deal will continue.
From commercial satellites to social media, technology is giving the world a never before seen look at Russia's military maneuvers near Ukraine. Coming up, we'll explore how crowdsourcing is shaping on-the- ground intelligence.
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BRUNHUBER: Stay with us.
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BRUNHUBER: One of the remarkable aspects of this conflict is the array of images we've been seeing. There are satellite photos like these from private companies.
They've brought us day-to-day changes on the ground, from jets positioning on an airfield in Russian-controlled Crimea, to a bridge suddenly appearing across a river in Belarus near the Ukrainian border.
Then there's the huge quantity of video that the Russian ministry of defense has provided itself, much of it described as training exercises taking place close to Ukraine. We've even seen videos like this one, going viral on social media platforms like TikTok.
All this is giving military planners and civilians the chance to analyze military maneuvers in real time.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BRUNHUBER: Christo Grozev is the lead Russia investigator with Bellingcat, the investigative journalism website that specializes in fact checking and open source intelligence and Christo focuses on security threats, extraterritorial clandestine operations and the weaponization of information. And he joins us from Vienna.
Thank you so much for being with us. Normally when we think of satellite images of troops and equipment, most of us think spy satellites, military, high-altitude surveillance flights, things only a top military power could provide.
But these satellite images that we're getting, in this conflict of Russian troops massing along the borders, where exactly are they coming from?
And how are we, as ordinary citizens, able to see them? CHRISTO GROZEV, LEAD RUSSIA INVESTIGATOR, BELLINGCAT: Well, a lot has changed over the last six years, actually seven years, since the initial phase of the war in Ukraine.
At that time, we, as open source investigators, were able to get sort of a snippet or view into how the operations on the ground are taking place because of people posting videos on their social media account.
[03:45:00]
GROZEV: That still continues today but now we are augmented by a lot of commercial satellite, that providers who are completely happy with (INAUDIBLE) providing real-time data to investigators and researchers.
Maxar is one example, a satellite, but also nation state satellites that are run by, for example, Israel, are also providing much more data that is allowing completely freelance, open sources, nonstate actors to make their own conclusions about what's happening on the ground.
In our particular case, Bellingcat has actually received -- we struck a deal with one of the commercial providers of satellite data, where we can even direct that satellite to a particular location on the face of the Earth, anyplace on the face of the Earth, for a particular number of hours per week.
So the amount of data today is completely different than it was even seven years ago.
BRUNHUBER: Yes, before, we used to have to rely on the government's word for a lot of this. Now it's a complete game changer. But Russia has been moving troops and equipment around. One analyst called it a deployment shell game.
So how confusing is this picture?
And how is Russia sort of trying to create interference to cover up what they're doing?
GROZEV: First, again, I'll throw you back to seven years ago, six years ago, when, in 2014 and '15, for the first time, social media exposure of movement of troops was interfering with the government narrative.
That allowed us, back at that time, to actually prove that a Russian missile shot down Malaysia Airlines MH17, despite all efforts of the Russian government to cover that story.
As a result of that, the Russian government introduced a law that actually banned soldiers from carrying mobile phones because a lot of the data was coming from mobile phones at the time.
What we have now is no soldiers posting selfies in front of Iskander air missile launchers; however, we have probably 100 times more local people in the villages and towns, through which these military installations are passing through, that are posting on TikTok, which didn't exist back then.
So actually, we're aggregating hundreds, thousands of TikTok postings per day, together with our colleagues from the conflict intelligence team in Russia. And we're analyzing whether the picture that is painted by all of these thousands of local residents, posting movement of troops, photographs, videos of troops moving, together with heavy equipment, matches the Russian narrative.
And it doesn't. What we found is that, on the day that the Russian ministry of defense claimed -- I think it was the 15th of February, a couple of days ago -- that they're starting a withdrawal from the so- called exercises near the border of Ukraine, we saw a confusing cross -- essentially two crossroads of weapons, some that were indeed leaving and were meant to be shown on Russian television.
But a completely different stream was still going toward the border. And as of today we don't see any evidence of the statements by the Russian government that there's an active withdrawal.
BRUNHUBER: So then obviously Russia is aware of all of this.
How do you separate what's really of analytical value and what's propaganda?
Is there fear that Russia could turn the tables and manipulate what we're seeing to maybe give a false impression of what they're planning?
GROZEV: They're doing that. And that's part of the problem with us trying to identify what could be planted evidence. So what the best evidence for us is the one that is attempted to be repressed and suppressed.
What we do see now is, for the first time, we see evidence that the Russian camps, that are being located near the border, are enforced areas, areas that are covered by trees. That was not the case back five or six years ago.
So that seems to be evidence that they're trying to cover from satellites, cover their troops from satellites and from open source investigators. We see a lot of false videos that are leaked to the internet, that are trying to create a confusing impression of what's happening.
A couple of days ago a video was promoted by Russian propaganda media that allegedly showed a firefight between Ukrainian Spetsnaz provocateurs, as they call them, and defenders from the separatist republics.
We were able to actually identify that video, was for that allegedly current firefight, was recorded several weeks ago. And the audio actually was taken from a 2018 YouTube video. So actually, it's completely manipulated evidence, yes.
BRUNHUBER: Let me jump in. I only have a minute left. I wanted to ask you this. One of the unusual aspects of the U.S. response to the Russian buildup has been the Biden administration calling out Russia's moves in real time.
How has that, and then the accompanying images that we've been allowed to see, to bolster these claims, changed the usual diplomatic game of accusation and denial we might normally see in a situation like this?
GROZEV: We didn't know how that's going to affect the game.
[03:50:00]
GROZEV: It has actually been a game changer. What we see is the Russian government has been caught off guard and has tried to vary the plans, not follow them exactly as they were, according to the intelligence received by the Americans.
And that has led to mistakes, mistakes like publishing two videos, in which the local leaders of DNR, LNR addressed their populations and claimed that those videos were recorded the 18th of February.
In fact, they were recorded two days earlier and they forgot to remove the metadata. So these small mistakes, many of them, I believe really are the end result of this preannounce game that Biden did.
BRUNHUBER: It's fascinating to see all this play out in real time. I really appreciate your analysis on this. Christo Grozev, executive director and lead Russia investigator with investigative journalism website, Bellingcat, thank you so much for joining us.
GROZEV: Thank you, Kim.
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BRUNHUBER: And we'll be right back. Stay with us.
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BRUNHUBER: The United Kingdom and parts of northwest Europe are recovering after the deadly storm Eunice roared through. It battered Poland on Saturday with strong winds.
[03:55:00]
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BRUNHUBER (voice-over): Watch here, a Boeing 787 struggling to land in Warsaw. It was successful on its second attempt.
Storm Eunice tracked in from the Central Atlantic, pummeling Ireland and the British Isles, moving across Europe. Experts say it's one of the worst in decades, with record-break hurricane-strength gusts. Now the U.K. is about to be hit by a third storm in a row, prompting a yellow alert.
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BRUNHUBER: The death toll is rising from those devastating landslides that hit Brazil earlier this week. At least 152 people have died, nearly 200 more are still missing after torrential rains battered an area north of Rio de Janeiro.
Hundreds more have been displaced by flooding. More rain hit the area Saturday, hindering rescue operations. Rainfall on Tuesday afternoon alone was more than the historical average for the entire month of February.
A dramatic helicopter crashed at a crowded Florida beach Saturday afternoon.
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BRUNHUBER (voice-over): Have a look at this harrowing scene as the chopper narrowly misses swimmers and sunbathers. It happened near the popular South Beach in Miami. Police say three people were on board, two of them were taken to hospital and reported to be in stable condition. The third person wasn't hurt.
Investigators are trying to figure out what caused the crash.
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BRUNHUBER: That wraps up this hour of CNN NEWSROOM. I'm Kim Brunhuber. I'll be back with my colleague, Michael Holmes, with more news, stay with us.
