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President Biden Agrees in Principle to Have a Summit with Putin; Queen Elizabeth Tested Positive for COVID-19; Vladimir Putin Plays Mind Game Well; U.S. Strengthen Bond with Allies Amid Crisis; Hong Kong Police Assist Country's Healthcare System. Aired 3-4a ET

Aired February 21, 2022 - 03:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[03:00:00]

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MICHAEL HOLMES, CNN ANCHOR (on camera): Hello everyone. I'm Michael Holmes, coming to you live from Lviv in Ukraine. Joe Biden agreeing to a potential summit with Vladimir Putin aimed at heading off a possible invasion here. But there is a condition. And it follows a warning from U.S. intelligence experts over where the Russian military preparations stand.

ROSEMARY CHURCH, CNN ANCHOR (on camera): And I'm Rosemary Church live from CNN headquarters in Atlanta.

Queen Elizabeth test positive for COVID along with others around her. We are live outside Windsor Castle with the latest on how she is doing.

HOLMES: World leaders on a race against time to stave off war in Ukraine. U.S. President Joe Biden agreed in principle to a summit with the Russian president Vladimir Putin but the White House says it will only go forward if Russia of course does not further invade Ukraine.

CNN's Arlette Saenz with that report.

ARLETTE SAENZ, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: The White House says President Biden has agreed in principle to a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin. But it comes with one major caveat only held if Russia does not invade Ukraine. Now this proposed summit was brokered by French President Emmanuel Macron who spoke with President Biden earlier on Sunday for 15 minutes.

And it was later confirmed by White House press secretary Jen Psaki, who said Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his counterpart Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov would discuss the parameters of such a summit when they meet on February 24th.

Psaki added in a statement saying President Biden accepted in principle a meeting with President Putin following that engagement. Again, if an invasion hasn't happened. We are always ready for diplomacy, she said. We are always ready to impose swift and severe consequences should Russia instead choose war. And currently, Russia appears to be continuing preparations for a

full-scale assault on Ukraine very soon. The White House has long said that they are open to President Biden engaging with President Putin when it would be useful and if it could help avoid a war between Russia and Ukraine. But the administration has also been clear eyed about Russia's intentions.

In recent days stepping up their warnings about Russia's ability to attack Ukraine including President Biden himself saying that he is convinced Putin has made that decision to launch an invasion.

So, while this proposal of a possible summit could mark a major breakthrough in those diplomatic talks the administration is still being very clear eyed and wary of Russia's intentions as they have seen these military buildups around the border of Ukraine. But they have long insisted that they think that there is a path, a diplomatic path available to avert such a crisis even if Russia is making some of these moves that suggests an attack could be imminent.

Arlette Saenz, CNN, the White House.

HOLMES: Now even as the west makes an 11th hour push for diplomacy there are more signs that Russia could be preparing to attack. New satellite images show increased activity among Russian forces amassed near Ukraine's northeastern border.

Now we're also learning that the U.S. has intelligence indicating Russian commanders have received orders to proceed with an attack on Ukraine. Though it is not clear when that is an important distinction to make. And this is according to several officials who spoke with CNN.

All right, now U.S. intelligence officials estimate close to 75 percent of Russia's entire conventional forces have now been deployed to Ukraine's doorstep. Incredible number. This is now surrounding the country on three sides.

Meanwhile, Ukraine says this video show pro-Russian separatists launching fire against their own territory in an attempt to falsely accuse Ukraine's armed forces of the attack. Now all of this as leaders in the separatist held areas of eastern Ukraine continue urging civilians to evacuate to Russia claiming Ukrainian forces are planning an attack. Something that Ukraine of course has consistently denied.

Let's bring in CNN's Fred Pleitgen live from Moscow. Fred, to begin with, this does feel last ditch but this potential summit between Putin and Biden. When might we know what the Kremlin thinks about it?

[03:05:03]

FREDERIK PLEITGEN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Hi there, Michael. Yes, it certainly feels last-ditch. But of course, it also it has been an ongoing diplomatic process especially if you look at some of the phone calls, the many phones calls between Emmanuel Macron, the French president and Vladimir Putin that really have been going on throughout this entire process of the escalation going on there close to the Ukrainian border.

We anticipate that we are going to be hearing from the Kremlin probably in the next hour or one and a half hours is usually a media call with the Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov that happens about around midday Russian time which is about an hour from now. I'm seeing on my screen here.

But the Russians have said consistently that they are willing to commit to diplomacy. The press secretary of the Kremlin has told me in the past that Vladimir Putin is up to negotiations. He's always ready for negotiations especially if it means meetings of the highest level with U.S. President Joe Biden.

So, we do expect that the Russians would have a positive to response to the potential summit with President Biden. Of course, the Russians continue today that they have no plans to invade Ukraine but they also want to talk about the broader security structure in Europe. And some of the demands that they have made of the U.S. and its allies. Michael?

HOLMES: Yes. I also wanted to get your take on the latest Russian military moves. How are they being viewed there, what do you think?

PLEITGEN: Yes. I mean, look, some of those images that we saw, we saw those satellite images of those camps. And those camps as far as the Maxar company is concerned who obviously took those images. But also of course some of the analysts are saying they believe that some of the big military encampments close to the Ukrainian border on Russian territory have actually started emptying out. And they believe that some of those forces are actually dispersing closer to the border with Ukraine.

There have been some videos that have surfaced of tanks rolling through villages and also mechanized Howitzers as well. So, as far as the U.S. concern they seem to be -- is concern -- they seem to believe that the Russian forces there are dispersing into smaller battle groups which they believe could indicate that an invasion of Ukraine is drawing close.

Of course, we've heard from the U.S. government they say that they believe a decision has been made by Vladimir Putin to invade Ukraine, and again, the Russians are saying that simply it is not true. They say all of this is all hysteria is what they've been saying in the past.

Of course, we have also seen more of an uptick in violence especially in the Donbas region. With on the one hand, the separatists accusing the Ukrainians of shelling men, they say that a fighter was killed overnight, a civilian as well. And then of course we saw that video that you showed earlier of the Ukrainians saying that they have evidence that the protests are essentially shelling their own positions to try and provoke the situation to try to get it to escalate even more. Michael?

HOLMES: Yes. Great analysis. I appreciate it. Frederik Pleitgen there in Moscow for us. All right. Let's now bring in Anton Troianovski, he is the Moscow

bureau chief for the New York Times been writing some fascinating analysis. It is a guessing game. There is a lot of chess playing going on of course, but how likely in your view are the odds that the Kremlin will say yes to this French brokage summit between Putin and Biden?

ANTON TROIANOVSKI, MOSCOW BUREAU CHIEF, THE NEW YORK TIMES: Hi, Michael. I mean, that's the million-dollar question right now. Certainly, Putin in the past has really pursued this kind of summit level negotiation with the United States looking to make a big deal about the future security architecture of Europe and the U.S. is clearly trying to engage Putin right now kind of showing that there is still something to talk about. So, we're going to see that in the -- in the coming hours as Fred said.

HOLMES: Yes. A lot of people have said when it comes to this whole move by him, this military move, a lot of people has said, you know, why now, why go so big given the risk reward calculus? So, what are you hearing about whether this is more likely bluff than war?

TROIANOVSKI: Well, you know, in terms of the why now you almost have to look at this as part of something that Putin has been trying to accomplish for at least almost 15 years. It was back in 2017 that he gave a big speech at the Munich security conference saying that, you know, this U.S.-led world order was not something that Russia supported.

And ever since then he is really been trying and all sorts of ways to rollback U.S. influence especially in Eastern Europe. That hasn't gone so well. Ukraine being the best example of a country that used to be close to Russia that is now really drifting away.

And so in that sense we are now at a point to where Russia's military is so powerful, the western unity has been in question. And it feels like a moment that Putin has grabbed to really to push the envelope and escalate the situation and trying to get something out of this.

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HOLMES: A fascinating aspect about all of this. I was talking to Nick Paton Walsh last hour here. And I was reading one of your pieces in the New York Times. And you wrote some analysts leave the door open to the idea that Putin has, quote, "fundamentally changed amid the pandemic. A shift that may have left him more paranoid, more aggrieved, and more reckless." Explain that a little?

TROIANOVSKI: Well, you know, Putin for a long time really has tried to create the image of this very rational calm leader who doesn't make any rash moves. If you turn on Russian TV for the last number of years there has been plenty of nationalist politicians saying that Putin should annex all of Ukraine right away. He has resisted doing that and really in the past you feel like he has always tried to manage his risk as much as possible.

You know, operations like Crimea or what he's done in eastern Ukraine or Georgia. You know, in many ways those were very limited interventions that allowed Putin to protect his downside risk so to speak.

This would be a massive escalation and an invasion of Ukraine would be a massive escalation.

HOLMES: Yes.

TROIANOVSKI: And really one of the things that folks are talking about is what has happened during the isolation of the pandemic where Putin has really been much more isolated than any western leader.

HOLMES: Yes. It's a really fascinating aspect of this. I found it really incredible. When you think about what could make Putin happy, I mean, it seems insurmountable, doesn't it? I mean, his wish is enormous and much of it just frankly unacceptable to the west. Right?

TROIANOVSKI: That's -- that's another big question here. You know, is this about Ukraine? Is this strictly speaking Putin trying to install a pro-western government -- sorry, a pro-Russian government in Ukraine? Or is it really as the Kremlin has been arguing about just redrawing the whole map of Eastern Europe?

That is what President Macron and Chancellor Scholz, and I think President Biden, that's what they've been trying to figure out with this intense diplomatic onslaught. It really does feel that Putin thinks he has the advantage right now that he is able to set the narrative and push the envelope.

But then you have to ask yourself if he really goes through with this invasion what does he get out of it? He might be able to take control of Ukraine for some amount of time but he is certainly not going to reduce the NATO presence in Eastern Europe. Quite the opposite.

HOLMES: Yes. Yes, great point. But the people you are speaking to, do you get the sense that Mr. Putin might have been caught off guard by the strength of the west's response and resolve this time?

TROIANOVSKI: That is certainly something you see in the Russian media. You know, the intensity of all of these warnings about imminent war has a lot of people unsaddled. And you know, you go out to the street here in Moscow, and no one is talking about it. It's not like, at least very recently, this hasn't really been the top of mind in the Russian public.

So, yes, it is a very different strategy. I think there is still the hope in the Russian leadership that if something were to happen there would still be some degree of indecisiveness in the west. Europe is obviously much more vulnerable especially in terms of its energy reliance on Russia.

So, on one hand, yes, I feel like there is a little bit of this being caught off guard, but on the other hand there is also a feeling that Russia has huge currency reserves, Russia has the advantage of its position as a massive energy supplier and also the fact that Putin has been able to really crushing dissent inside the country. Crush the opposition gives the Kremlin, I think this feeling that they have a very strong hand to play here.

HOLMES: Yes. Important point there. Great to read your stuff in the New York Times. Anton Troianovski, thank you so much.

TROIANOVSKI: Thank you.

HOLMES: All right. I'm Michael Holmes in Lviv, Ukraine. I will be back with more later in the show. For now, though, let's go to my friend Rosemary Church at the CNN center. Rosie?

CHURCH: Yes. Great interview there. Thank you so much, Michael. I appreciate it.

Joining me now is CNN senior political analyst Ron Brownstein. Good to have you with us.

RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Hi, Rosemary.

CHURCH: So, U.S. President Joe Biden has now agreed in principle to a summit with Russia's Vladimir Putin. But on the condition, he stops any further invasion of Ukraine. All this coming as new intel indicates that Russian commanders have been told to prepare for an invasion.

[03:15:03]

And as President Biden keeps releasing sensitive intel that reveals Putin's attack plans in an effort of course to remove any element of surprise. So, all the while working on diplomacy and deterrence. How has Biden's role in this Russia Ukraine crisis worked for him politically? And how dangerous could this prove to be for him in the end?

BROWNSTEIN: Well, look, for the most part this is the Biden that he promised the voters. Steady, firm, and capable at holding together the western alliance. I think that is the biggest surprise of this entire, you know, unfortunate and dangerous episode. Which is that despite the reliance of western Europe on Russian energy supplies, Biden and the western European have been really shoulder to shoulder in sending an unmistakable signal to Putin about the consequences if he invades Ukraine.

I mean, you contrast this obviously with all of the conflict between the previous president, Donald Trump and NATO, his efforts to shake down Ukraine over, you know, pressuring them to create and manufacturing narrative about -- about Biden.

And so, we don't know how this is going to end and it may still end in a very unfortunate way. But so far, I think from a pretty broad range of commentators from left to right Biden has got -- has received high marks for the way he has held together the western alliance in the face of this threat.

And of course, meantime, there is still room for diplomacy as a variety of deterrence also being considered. But Putin plays a very dangerous game of brinkmanship giving the impression of an imminent invasion so he can apply maximum pressure to get everything he wants at the negotiating table. He is testing President Biden's nerve and strength. Is Biden up for this?

BROWNSTEIN: Well, look, I mean, Biden interestingly has tried to, you know, undermine the levers. Let the air out of the balloon or maybe the better analogy is to kind of have the release file for the pressure cooker by constantly revealing information about what Russia is doing.

I mean, it's really been extraordinary to watch in real-time as the U.S. administration has released information saying that they are setting up this provocation or that provocation. And they've given the order to invade.

I mean, he has given the sense that they have information from really right within the room as Putin is making decisions and, in a way, have kind of defuse what would be the normal Putin playbook of creating, manufacturing provocations that he says he can respond to. Biden has kind of preempted a lot of that.

So again, we don't know how this is going to end up and there may be nothing the west can do to prevent Putin from going on this course, but at least they have held together and sent him a very clear signal that the consequences could be enormous in terms of deepening Russia's isolation particularly in the global economy.

CHURCH: And of course, this will be a delicate negotiation. Is there anything that President Biden can offer Vladimir Putin that could avoid further invasion of Ukraine? Considering Putin wants Ukraine back and nothing less really.

BROWNSTEIN: Right. Right.

CHURCH: Or is this just the Russian president buying more time trying to make a fool of the west? And more specifically, President Biden?

BROWNSTEIN: Well, as I said, I mean, there may be nothing the west can do to ultimately change Putin's calculus. Because as you say he views this as kind of his existential mission to restore the regional dominance of Russia and there may be no pricey is unwilling to pay. But what they can do is send him the clear message that the price he will pay will be substantial. And they have been, I think more successful than many had to have expected a couple of months ago at holding together in sending that message.

And in this, this is the Biden that we were supposed to get. We didn't see this in Afghanistan where there was almost kind of a, you know, a sense that the U.S. was acting alone and there was a lot of uncertainty among allies about what they were doing. The whole process seemed rush.

This seems more deliberative but also affirmed at every step of the way. So, while they are, you know, as they say there could be dark days ahead, certainly at the least they have -- they have let Putin know that these actions could have enormous consequences for his country. CHURCH: Ron Brownstein, thank you so much for analysis as always.

BROWNSTEIN: Thank you.

CHURCH: Coming up next, royal health concerns after the British monarch test positive for COVID-19. We are live in Windsor with the latest on the queen's condition. Back in just a moment.

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CHURCH (on camera): Britain's Queen Elizabeth is said to be experiencing mild symptoms after testing positive for COVID-19. And Buckingham Palace says the 95-year-old monarch plans to continue light duties this week. According to U.K. media she is fully vaccinated.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is wishing the queen a swift recovery and many in London are concerned about her health.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNKNOWN: She has to get better. We can't afford to lose her just yet.

UNKNOWN: I feel very sad. I mean, she's always been there forever, hasn't she? As far as I'm concerned. Yes, being without her would be shocking.

UNKNOWN: She's an icon. She's an icon of the U.K. She is the epitome of the U.K. in some ways. I mean, most people in the country have never known any monarch other than her.

UNKNOWN: Yes. She's old, you know, her immune system is probably a bit weaker than others. I just wish her the best.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CHURCH (on camera): CNN's Anna Stewart joins us now from Windsor with the very latest. Good to see you, Anna. As we heard there some concerned British citizens. So, what more are you learning about how the queen is coping with these mild COVID symptoms?

[03:24:59]

ANNA STEWART, CNN REPORTER: Good morning, Rosemary. Yes, lots of concern everywhere really around the country and probably the commonwealth as well. She's 95 years old and has tested positive for COVID.

Now following that news yesterday, we then found out from the palace that she does have mild cold-like symptoms and we are told that she will continue to receive medical attention. She has a whole team actually of her all physicians that work within the royal household. So, they will be taken great care of he

The use of the word medical attention some are wondering whether that might mean that she's being given antiviral treatment to help with her symptoms and ensure it doesn't get much worse. She is in a high-risk category being 95 in terms of risk for severe disease from COVID. But hopefully not.

I mean, the extraordinary thing is, despite being 95 years old, despite having COVID she will continue to work we're told. She'll be taking on light duties over the coming days. Rosemary?

CHURCH: All right. Anna Stewart joining us there. Many thanks. I appreciate it.

Well, meantime, countries in Asia are trying to slow the spread of new COVID cases with varying degrees of success. China reported 86 new cases Sunday. And has jump into action to prevent further infections. One hundred twenty-eight neighborhoods in a city with 10 new cases have been put under lockdown over the weekend alone.

Hong Kong is ramping up testing trying to contain the spread of the region's fifth wave of the virus. Hospitals are stretch to the limit with reports of people stuck outside in the rain due to a lack of hospital beds.

And Kristie Lu Stout joins me now from Hong Kong with more on all of this. Kristie, obviously a great concern people out in the rain but now we learn to police are being mobilized to help with this growing outbreak in Hong Kong. What are they doing exactly?

KRISTIE LU STOUT, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes. Hong Kong is reportedly now mobilizing its police force to help somehow contain this growing fifth wave of COVID-19 infection. According to the South China Morning Post citing sources they say that the Hong Kong police would help prepare for mass testing here in the city. Officials here said that they are weighing mandatory testing of everyone who lives in the territory of some 7.4 million people.

Now this news comes just days after Chinese President Xi Jinping urge Hong Kong and the government to take the main responsibility to control and stabilize this growing COVID outbreak. On Sunday, the territory reported over 6,000 new daily cases of COVID-19, as well as new 14 deaths caused by the virus.

Now the mainland China and the officials there they have pledge to offer assistance. That insistence has been arriving in the form of expertise. Expertise in testing, in treatment, as well as boosting quarantine capacity here in the territory.

In fact, we can show the pictures for you. Construction is underway with the help of mainland Chinese teams of two new isolation and treatment centers here in Hong Kong. One in Penny's Bay located near Hong Kong Disneyland and the other the old Kai Tak airport, the Kait Tak cruise terminal line.

These isolation facilities together would provide 10,000 additional isolation beds so people wouldn't have to wait outside public hospitals. They'd be able to be inside these facilities. But when you talk to experts and public health experts, they say it's still not enough. Listen to this.

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KAREN GREPIN, ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR, UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH: The models do suggest that we could very easily be reaching tens of thousands, if not even larger numbers of cases sometime in March. More worrying is that we are also seeing that many of these models suggest that are capacity to hospitalize all the severe cases might very easily and very soon the exceeded. And that means that we will be facing a very large number of deaths here in Hong Kong.

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LU STOUT (on camera): You know, we are still awaiting the latest numbers of COVID-19 confirmed cases that's due to come out in just minutes from now. At the moment, Hong Kong is reporting about 6,000 daily cases of COVID-19. Researchers at the University of Hong Kong they anticipate that number will rise to 28,000 by March. And we simply don't have enough isolation beds or quarantine centers to cope. Back to you.

CHURCH: Yes, that is such a concern. Kristie Lu Stout joining us live from Hong Kong. Many thanks. I appreciate it.

Well, still to come on CNN, why America's top diplomat is defending the Biden administration's position to reject calls for imposing preinvasion sanctions against Russia. We'll explain.

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HOLMES: Welcome back, everyone. I'm Michael Holmes in Lviv, Ukraine.

The White House says the U.S. President Joe Biden has agreed in principle to a summit with the Russian President Vladimir Putin on Ukraine. The French brokered this summit and it represents pretty a last-ditch effort of diplomacy as the military crisis intensifies.

But the White House warning, the meeting can take place only if Russia does not further invade Ukraine unsurprisingly. It would also happen after U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov meet, and that will be on Thursday.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly said he agrees on the importance of diplomacy and de-escalation. But now he wants sanctions to be imposed against Russia before any potential invasion of his country. He made that plea to western leaders at a security conference in Munich over the weekend.

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VOLODYMYR ZELENSKY, PRESIDENT OF UKRAINE (through translator): We are being told that you have several days and then the war will start. And I said, OK. Then apply the sanctions today. Yes, they say we apply sanctions when the war will happen. I'm saying fine, but you are telling me that it's 100 percent that the war will start in a couple of days? Then what are you waiting for? We don't need your sanctions after the bombardment will happen and after our country will be fired at or after we will have no borders and after we will have no economy or parts of our countries will be occupied. Why would we need those sanctions then?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES (on camera): Well, the U.S. rejecting the Ukrainian president's plea. Secretary of State Antony Blinken explains why.

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ANTONY BLINKEN, U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE: The purpose of the sanctions in the first instance is to try to deter Russia from going to war. As soon as you trigger them, that deterrent is gone. And until the last minute as long as we can try to bring a deterrent effect to this, we're going to try to do that.

[03:35:05]

As to laying out in detail what the sanctions will be. two things. First, Russia generally has a pretty good idea of what we're going to do but we don't want to lay out the specifics in advance because that would allow Russia to try to plan against them.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES (on camera): There's more from CNN global affairs analyst Kimberly Dozier.

KIMBERLY DOZIER, CNN GLOBAL AFFAIRS ANALYST: At this point it's got to be pretty lonely to be the Ukrainian president right now. He took the risk of flying to Munich on Saturday and pleading for, basically more from the for -- the international community. He wants them to show their hand at least a little bit to try to get Putin to back down. And he didn't get that.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES (on camera): CNN's Scott McLean joins me now live from Brussels with more. What are you hearing there, Scott?

SCOTT MCLEAN, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Hey, Michael, So, this morning the foreign ministers from the 27 E.U. countries will be getting together. This is a pre-scheduled meeting but given the juncture that we're at with Russia and Ukraine, of course that will be top of the agenda. And surely sanctions will be one of the discussions point as -- points as well with the Ukrainian foreign minister who will join his European colleagues for about a 90-minute or so discussion.

Now, the E.U.'s top diplomat said that that package of sanctions has already been prepared but you heard the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky saying that if the west is so certain that there is going to be an invasion from Russia, what are we waiting for? Why can't sanctions come right away?

And Borrell, Josep Borrell, that top diplomat from the E.U. said, was asked essentially the same question this morning. And he said that look, the vote will be held at the right time. And that right time of course is when there is actual Russian military action taken.

Now Zelensky's other main point was that if there is -- if you can't have the sanctions then at least you should announce what those sanctions are going to be in great detail. And so far, the E.U. has not done that. The European Commission president Ursula von der Lyon did say that those sanctions would bite very hard.

And just last night on German television she also said that if Russia were to invade, they would essentially be, what she said in principle, cut off from the international financial markets. This comes after the Belgium prime minister said that the E.U. is working with Canada, the United States, and Switzerland as well to make sure that everybody is on the same page so that there is no, in his words, escape effect. No way for Russia to get around the sanctions.

Now of course at this meeting this morning Europeans are looking to present a united front in the face of Russian aggression. But of course, there are some cracks as well. And one of those cracks is on energy because Europe is so, so dependent on Russian energy.

The Italian prime minister said just on Friday that this package of sanctions should not target Russians -- Russia's energy sector for that exact reason. And the Europeans will also be meeting later today with the Gulf cooperation council, of course, to discuss who to get more energy into Europe from the Gulf. Michael?

HOLMES: Scott Mclean, thank you so much there in Brussels.

Joining me now here in Lviv is international security editor Nick Paton Walsh. Good to have you back, Nick.

Putin of course, created a plutocracy over the years giving key posts to allies and, in the process, making them wildly wealthy. Given the prospect of targeted sanctions that could hit these oligarchs what are the odds or the chances that they might turn on him?

NICK PATON WALSH, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL SECURITY EDITOR: I'd say think probably quite slim. I mean, since 2014 when sanctions are in place for the Crimean invasion and the subsequent invasion of the Donbas area. People have had time to be ready for this. And there is also the argument too, that the oligarchs as they were a sort of less keen now in the Putin and his coterie of kind of become the money.

I mean, a lot of people are going to refer to Vladimir Putin as possibly being one of the richest men in Russia himself which of course the Kremlin have fervently denied. But that plays into the broader concept of how damaging further sanctions could in fact be.

And we've seen, you know, some oligarchs challenge sanctions against their wealth and have of course a lot of times to implement themselves from this. So there is the possibility, yes, maybe that there would be the rich coterie around him saying what you are embarking on could damage our wealth.

But Russian officials we've also heard too, saying oddly even though they haven't accepted that they would do anything that would merit sanctions, if they were sanctioned, it would kind of be OK. And so, the sort of sanction proofing of the economy appears to already be underway to some degree.

But again, that just speaks to how cut off from ordinary people of the people making the decisions may be --

HOLMES: Yes.

WALSH: -- where they sort of well, we can just bear this.

HOLMES: It's a great point. Now this isn't on the tip of my tongue. A friend sends me the quote from and certainly cord from Sun Tzu, "The Art of War." To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill.

[03:40:06]

As long as Putin does not invade, how best then can NATO and the U.S. and the west and Ukraine, for that matter, fight something that's not happening?

WALSH: Yes. I mean, this is essentially at this point he has, quote, unquote, "done nothing wrong."

HOLMES: Yes.

WALSH: Right? I mean, you could argue that the fomenting of separatist violence that seems to be happening in the past days was Moscow instigated, but they've always enjoyed that ability about it, the ability to say what these guys just do, what these guys are going to do and they are under attack.

So, yes, up until this point nothing, quote, unquote, "wrong has been done by the Kremlin." So, you do have to find a strategy to not leave yourself permanently in the state of brinkmanship with 150,000 plus troops on the border, armored and looks prepared to invade. Belarus not annexed but with a lot of Russian troops they're calling the shots.

And so, is this a permanent state of affairs for Ukraine? Is that a viable? And how would NATO find a clear response to that given, quote, "that nothing really has been done wrong so far?"

HOLMES: Yes, yes, it's an interesting point. We talked about this a couple hours ago but I thought I raise it again. When it comes to how Putin is handling this and how it behaves, it raises the whole question of succession for him. I mean, he's in late 60s, nearly 70s. Is there a succession?

WALSH: There is no name really out there. I mean, maybe I've missed it, forgive me, but there is no obvious person waiting in the wings. And people talked about Sergei Ivanov, his former chief of staff for a while, a KGB guy who served in (Inaudible). He's almost got an English cockney accent when he talks in English. One possible name.

There are people around him but the problem with this sort of terminology (Ph), as soon as you mention somebody, they immediately become a target for those who do not want that to occur.

HOLMES: And what's the risk of that?

WALSH: Well, that someone who would be target with --

(CROSSTALK)

HOLMES: No, there's no obvious succession.

WALSH: That's part of the problem, right?

HOLMES: Yes.

WALSH: If you're the only guy making all this, calling all the shots for 20 years and nobody dares speak against you, then yes, you don't necessarily have someone. So, you create this situation where you are the top of the pyramid and once it's removed lots below it could crumble.

And I think that's what people are maybe concerned about, but the whole point about terminology, Michael, is we have no idea what's going on.

(CROSSTALK)

HOLMES: That's what this is.

WALSH: That's all the case.

HOLMES: That's what it is, yes.

WALSH: And so even with, you know, Vladimir Putin isolated at the end of a ridiculously long table.

HOLMES: Yes.

WALSH: You don't even have the table seating to work out quite who's in or who's out of favor.

HOLMES: Yes.

WALSH: So, this is -- this is the blank canvas which so much of what we're seeing now rest upon.

HOLMES: That's the fascinating aspect of it. Good to see you, Nick. Thanks so much. Nick Paton Walsh joining us here for a conversation. I think he's back next our as well, which would be nice. All right. Thanks, Nick.

All right. Still to come here on the program, many Ukrainian communities in the U.S. making their voices heard. More on their fears and concerns when we come back. [03:45:00]

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CROWD: USS bought Ukraine. USS bough Ukraine.

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HOLMES (on camera): You're looking there at the scene from Sunday in Washington, D.C. where several pro-Ukrainian groups gathering to show solidarity for Ukraine. And also petition the Biden administration to annex sanctions against Russia. CNN was there and spoke to some of the participants.

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UNKNOWN: If you could say anything to Putin right now what would it be?

UNKNOWN: Stop the war. Don't invade -- don't invade our country. It's a free country and we fight and pray for the freedom and for democracy. And it's a great country, great people and we are here to ask U.S. government and all leaders in the world to help, to send support and to support our country. Let's pray for the peace.

UNKNOWN: My heart is worried about Ukraine. I don't want another war. I don't want the struggles the blood and all of that. And Ukraine went through this many times. There is no need for this now. So, I support all Ukrainians who came together also here to send a message to Washington, to Biden and to everybody else. You need to do some more radical stuff.

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HOLMES: And in New York, CNN's Polo Sandoval spoke with the Ukrainian American community organizer who highlighted their fears and concerns. Here's his report.

POLO SANDOVAL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: What is happening a half world away is real and visceral for many of the Ukrainians living here in the United States spending some time in one of those communities here in New York Cit where roughly 150,000 Ukrainian Americans actually live here in New York. That's according to one community organizer and many of them certainly returning to their fate as they've been doing for the last eight years of this.

But they certainly have been doing it more lately according to many of the members of one parish spending the day on Sunday at St. George the Ukrainian Catholic Church where we saw many people there standing in solidarity and praying for their brothers, sisters in Ukraine.

But also, when you hear from some of those U.S.-based organizations also been taking real steps to ensure the safely well-being of their friends and family still in Ukraine. I want you to hear from now a member of that community here in New York City but also a member of Ukrainian Congress Committee of American as he describes what's being done right now as they reach out to people in Ukraine.

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ANDRIJ DOBRIANSKY, SPOKESMAN, UKRAINIAN CONGRESS COMMITTEE OF AMERICA: Now we are talking to family members to talk if they have American passports or European passports. That they can leave if they want to. If they have go bags. If they have all of their contact information. We assume that cell phone communication will go down. That's happened before or during the initial war.

So, if people have satellite phones even better. But we want to make sure that our friends are safe in Ukraine and we're also going to do what we can here for the most part. If you were just a local Ukrainian you are going to come to church. And we've had multiple prayer sessions for Ukraine.

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SANDOVAL (on camera): It's not just here in New York City but throughout the country that we have seen the shows of support including in the nation's capital. Where on Sunday we saw several pro- Ukrainian groups marching peacefully in Washington, D.C. Not only standing in solidarity of Ukraine, but also calling on the Biden administration to impose sanctions on Russia.

Polo Sandoval, CNN, New York.

HOLMES: I'm Michael Holmes in Lviv in eat -- in western Ukraine. I will be back with more next hour. For now, let's go back to Rosemary Church with at the CNN center with today's other top stories. Rosemary?

ROSEMARY CHURCH, CNN ANCHOR: Great stuff. Thank you so much, Michael. See you again soon.

Just ahead, Beijing bids farewell to the Winter Olympics. The historic game saw new records set but also more than one scandal. That's next.

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CHURCH (on camera): Beijing closed out the 2022 Winter Olympic Games on Sunday with a dazzling spectacle. Fireworks lit up the night sky over the bird's nest stadium as spectators danced and cheered. The International Olympic Committee president thank the organizers and the people of China for hosting the games during the pandemic. But the Beijing Olympics weren't without controversy.

CNN's Selina Wang takes a look at the highs and the lows.

SELINA WANG, CNN CORRESPONDENT: The Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics ended with victory, heartbreak, and relief. To China, these games were a success. Beijing managed to pull up the games in the middle of the pandemic without any major outbreaks inside or outside the bubble, becoming the first city to host both a summer and Winter Olympics. Showing off a wealthier and more powerful China.

And it was incredible to be inside of the bird's nest during that closing ceremony. It was electrifying even though we were sitting in the cold for several hours, the invited fans were excited. Doing the wave waving their iPhone lights in the air to the music. Clapping loudly.

And there was a feeling of relief as well for these athletes who have been spending so much time trying to avoid getting COVID just trying to make it into Beijing and be able to compete. And now they can finally let loose for a moment. And these games have often felt dystopian. We're often surrounded by workers in Hazmat suits, we have PCR tests every day. We have to be completely separate from the rest of China's population.

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And this closing ceremony was finally a moment where it felt like a party. There were lights, music and it ended with dramatic fireworks. But these games will also be remembered for controversy and a scandal. The opening ceremony began with Vladimir Putin as the guest of honor. The U.S. and some of its allies have boycotted these games as a protest against allegations of China's human rights abuses.

In addition to that, I will never forget the moment that I saw a 15- year-old figure skating star Kamila Valieva take the ice for the last time in Beijing. Her performance was full of stumbles and mistakes marred by a doping scandal that once again put the spotlight on Russia's history of state-sponsored doping.

But despite the controversy the geopolitical tensions and the scandal the athletes still persevered. They brought the world together. They set new records and still mesmerized the world with their performances.

Selina Wang, CNN, Beijing.

CHURCH: And thank you so much for your company. I'm Rosemary Church. I'll be back with Michael Holmes and another hour of CNN Newsroom after a short break. Stay with us.

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