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Putin Orders Russian Forces Into Separatist-Held Areas In Ukraine; U.S. Official: Russian Troops Could Move Into Separatist Regions In Coming Hours; Global Markets Rattled As Russia-Ukraine Tensions Rise; U.K. PM: COVID Restrictions In England To End On Thursday; Australia Reopens To Vaccinated Travelers After Two Years. Aired 1-2a ET

Aired February 22, 2022 - 01:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[01:00:27]

MICHAEL HOLMES, CNN ANCHOR: Hello and welcome to our viewers joining us from all around the world. I'm Michael Holmes coming to you live from Ukraine.

Our breaking news this hour, Putin's latest move has the world on edge. The United Nations Security Council gathering for a late night emergency meeting as leaders worldwide brace for a possible full invasion of Ukraine. What are Putin's goals? How far will he go?

JOHN VAUSE, CNN ANCHOR: And live from CNN World Headquarters in Atlanta, I'm John Vause with our other top stories this hour including living with COVID. England gearing up to discard all restrictions. Prime Minister Boris Johnson says it's the way forward as infections decline.

HOLMES: The Russian President Vladimir Putin ordering troops to deploy to areas of eastern Ukraine controlled by Russian-backed separatists. The U.S. says Russian forces could start arriving at any moment. And we also have a Russian media videos showing a military convoy moving through separatists controlled Donetsk. Although it is unclear who the equipment belongs to.

Mr. Putin's deployment order came just hours after he signed a decree recognizing the breakaway regions Donetsk and Luhansk as independent republics. It's hard to tell if Russia's moves are a prelude to full invasion, but it's another escalation in a standoff with Ukraine that has the west on edge. In just the past few hours, the U.N. Security Council wrapped up an emergency meeting to discuss the crisis. Here's how the American ambassador described the situation.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

LINDA THOMAS-GREENFIELD, U.S. AMBASSADOR TO THE United States: He calls them peacekeepers. This is nonsense. We know what they really are. In doing so, he has put before the world a choice. We must meet the moment and we must not look away. History tells us that looking the other way in the face of such hostility will be a far more costly path.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: Meantime, U.S. officials have reportedly spoken with the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky about moving to Lviv, where I am right now, if the situation continues to unravel. But Mr. Zelensky appears unwilling to bend to Moscow's threats.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

VOLODYMYR ZELENSKY, UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT (through translation): We are dedicated to the peaceful diplomatic solution. And we will follow this and only this path. We are on our land. We are not afraid of anybody and anything. We owe nothing to anybody. And we will not give anything to anyone. And we are confident about it.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: In the United States, President Joe Biden signing an executive order restricting American business in Ukraine's breakaway regions. The U.K. announcing it will impose new sanctions. And in the coming hours, European Union officials will meet to discuss sanctions as well.

For more on all of this, let's bring in CNN White House Correspondent Arlette Saenz. So Arlette, bring us up to date on the White House's position and why the sanctions they're talking about are so limited.

ARLETTE SAENZ, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, Michael, the White House continues to watch Russia's moves with growing concern as it appears that they are moving closer and closer to a further invasion of Ukraine. Now U.S. officials have said that they believe that Russia -- those troops that Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered into those two Russian separatist regions in Ukraine that those can be arriving at any moment in the coming hours.

The U.S. has also been watching Russia's military movements over the course of the past few weeks as well as most recently the past few days. And they've seen other movements that have suggested the potential for a broader invasion that includes the arrival of amphibious ships, as well as equipment for airborne units.

And as you heard the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, she was warning about Russia's intentions when it comes to Ukraine. She said that the moves that they've been making so far, follow what the U.S. predicted would be part of the Russian playbook if they were moving forward with an invasion. And she said that in the coming days, the U.S. will be implementing additional measures to make it clear that Russia has violated international law.

Now one thing that the White House has been reticent to do so far is specifically saying whether troops entering that Donbass region whether that would amount to a further invasion of Ukraine.

[01:05:11]

One senior administration official have made the argument to reporters on Monday that these Russian troops have been present in that region for quite some time going all the way back to 2014 when Putin originally annexed Crimea. So they're saying that this would not necessarily be a new step. And right now, they're declining to say whether that amounts to a further invasion.

Of course, that description of a further invasion is important when it comes to the sanctions that the U.S. has promised to implement against Russia if they do further invade Ukraine. On Monday, President Biden issued very limited, targeted sanctions that would prevent businesses from conducting trade or investing in those two regions that Putin declared independent earlier in the day. But that is separate from what the U.S. has been working on with its allies as they have really promised the most severe and punishing sanctions to date that Putin would face if he does move forward with an invasion.

There has been some criticism that those sanctions have not been enacted just yet. But the White House is insistent that they are planning other measures in the days forward. Now, of course, the U.S. says that they still think diplomacy could be an option. They say that they will continue on that diplomatic path until the tanks roll. But they are also very clear-eyed about these military movements that they've seen from Russia as an invasion seems potentially likely.

HOLMES: All right, Arlette Saenz, appreciate it. Thanks so much.

All right. Now, I want to bring in Dmitri Trenin in Moscow, he is the director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, a think-tank with members for more than 20 countries working together to advance International Peace. Great to have your voice on this. So only the Donbass so far but what do you think are Russia's real aims? How much further might he go?

DMITRI TRENIN, DIRECTOR, CARNEGIE MOSCOW CENTER: Well, it's hard to tell at this point, because it may be the end of the current crisis from the Russian side, but it could also be the beginning of something much bigger, longer term. What I was struck by was the words of the President, President Putin, in which he basically withdrew recognition from the quote unquote, Kyiv regime, and the territorial integrity or legitimacy of President Day, rump Ukraine. And that I think, is something that we need to keep in mind as we look into the future.

HOLMES: There has been so much talk about the Minsk agreements being some sort of roadmap for resolving this -- the crisis. Is the Minsk agreements dead with Russia going in?

TRENIN: Well, I think that Minsk was a method, a tool for Russia to solve the quote unquote, Ukraine problem for Moscow. The problem being Ukraine's orientation toward NATO membership. The idea was that once Luhansk and Donetsk were given the autonomy within Ukraine, they would de facto veto or the jury veto Ukraine's bid to join NATO.

Now, it appears that the Minsk agreement was dead on arrival, and there was no wish to implement it. Ukraine was very much against that. Very influential Ukrainian circles called it high treason. So seven years later, Moscow has basically accepted something that had been there for the past almost seven years.

HOLMES: You mentioned some of the words of Vladimir Putin. I wanted to get your thoughts on the tone of the speech. It was lecturing, even angry, basically saying to the west, I didn't care what you think, what did you make of it?

TRENIN: Well, I think that this speech was remarkable in many ways. At the beginning, it looked like it was a further development of the President's article that he penned in and published in June last year. And then he enumerated various Russian security concerns that were passed on to the United States at the end of last year.

And at some point, it appeared as if the president would declare Russian war of liberation if you like, or March of liberation of Ukraine because he was talking about Ukraine and very, very striking tones, meaning the current leadership of Ukraine and the composition of Ukraine.

[01:10:17]

And then at the end of this speech, he come down, if you like, and limited himself nor narrowed down, limited himself to something God had been there for the past eight years Russia's recognition of the breakaway regions of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent Republic's and deploying Russian forces there. That could have been done by Russia at any moment past.

HOLMES: The areas we're talking about, the original areas claimed by these so-called Republics is, it's greater than the area they currently hold. It includes, you know, strategic places like Mariupol. Do you think there could be plans afoot to move further out, but how to get that landbridge connecting mainland Russia to Crimea? You know, and that would leave a sliver of captured territory?

TRENIN: Well, these were the questions that were immediately asked by the people here. I think that the -- that officially the issue is fudged. The law does not specify or let's say, the regulations do not specify that when you recognize somebody, you have to outline the borders of that entity. So the issue is not yet being solved in people's minds.

But I think that the actual stakes are much higher, longer term, as I said, and they are not limited to the administrative borders of Luhansk and Donetsk. But this is the game that we're only at the beginning.

HOLMES: Yes, yes. Worryingly. Dmitri Trenin, great to get your analysis. Thanks so much for the time.

TRENIN: You're welcome.

HOLMES: Now the stock uptick in tensions between Russia and Ukraine is sparking fresh concerns among global financial markets. CNN's Kristie Lu Stout joins me now from Hong Kong. Kristie? KRISTIE LOU STOUT, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hey there, Michael. Most stocks across the Asia Pacific region are falling this day, of course, on the back of the news from Russian President Vladimir Putin ordering troops to enter this breakaway pro-Moscow regions in eastern Ukraine. And if we can bring up the latest data for you across Asia, you will see that it paints a portrait in red, you know, across the region. The Nikkei you see is down 1.7 percent. Here in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index down almost 3.2 percent. Shanghai Composite losing one and a third, the Seoul KOSPI losing 1.5 percent.

I should add that concerns about more tech sector restrictions are weighing on the markets across China. And today from Asia, we're also keeping a close eye on U.S. futures. Of course, Monday was a holiday in the United States for Presidents Day but when they open soon, this could be what they will be seeing. Dow futures at the moment down 1.32 percent. Nasdaq down 3.5 percent. The S&P 500 losing 2.3 percent.

According to the White House issued a statement on Monday, they said that U.S. President Joe Biden is planning to impose sanctions on those breakaway provinces in eastern Ukraine. And that news since the price of crude oil soaring. All this is adding up to so much volatility, so much uncertainty out there about the fate of future of Ukraine and elsewhere.

And bottom line, this is not painting a good picture for the markets at the moment. I have two statements I want to share with you with analysts who've been talking to here at CNN. Craig Erlam, he's a senior market analyst at Oanda. He tells CNN this, "It feels like the situation can dramatically escalate at any moment and that's going to keep investors on edge for now. We may well be on the brink of something terrible happening. And that is continuing to feed into the negativity in the markets."

In addition to that, we also heard from Damien McColough, he's the head of Fixed Income Research at Westpac. And he tells CNN the following, "I do think it's as much a short squeeze as a flight to quality. Today's move is clearly an escalation, which suggests that the current risk rewards will favor lower long-end yields."

And sure enough, the crisis in Ukraine has been driving up the price of gold as well as Treasury bonds as investors out there scrambling to find any sort of safe haven out there. Back to you, Michael.

HOLMES: All right, Kristie Lou Stout there in Hong Kong, appreciate it. Thanks so much.

And that'll be all for us from Ukraine for now. Do stick around. I'll be back at the bottom of the hour. We will look at an invasion in what an invasion into Ukraine might look like and the vast firepower in Russia's Arsenal. Plus what experts say is going through Vladimir Putin's mind.

[01:15:05]

For now though, I'll hand it back to John Vause for more of the day's other stories. VAUSE: And again, Michael, thank you for the reporting. We'll see you in a moment. We'll take a short break. When we come back, out of retirement and all the pandemic frontlines. Former government employees in Hong Kong back at work in a healthcare system overwhelmed by a fifth wave of COVID. Those details ahead.

Also coming up, as more countries adopt a living with COVID policy, could Omicron sub-variant threaten the return to normalcy?

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VAUSE: Hong Kong is forming an epidemic task force to help respond to a surge in COVID cases. 1,000 also retired government workers have been recruited to manage isolation facilities and help hospitals amid a fifth wave of the virus. And new COVID facility with 1,000 beds is being built at an old airport terminal. And despite the surging case numbers, some they believe there are still too many restrictions.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CAESAR LEE, HONG KING RESIDENT (through translation): Foreign countries like those in Europe have coexisted with the virus. Citizens in those countries can do whatever they want. Now Omicron has a little threat. Why doesn't Hong Kong do the same as the West or the government should do a complete lockdown? Otherwise, there is no way to win the fight against the virus.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

VAUSE: The U.K. is one of the countries going with a learning to live with COVID approach as part of that strategy and additional booster shot will be available within weeks to those older than 75 as well as the most vulnerable. This week, England will end all pandemic restrictions, just one of many nations to do so with new infections globally on the decline.

We get this report from CNN's Nina dos Santos.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

NINA DOS SANTOS, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Living with COVID-19, according to the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, it's the way forward and the next phase of the U.K.'s battle with the coronavirus. Johnson says that since there's sufficient immunity built up over the past two years on Thursday, all coronavirus restrictions will end in England. People who test positive or no longer legally be required to isolate.

Routine contact tracing operations will stop and free universal testing will cease in April. He says that even though the pandemic isn't over, it's important to shift away from government mandates to personal responsibility.

[01:20:02]

BORIS JOHNSON, BRITISH PRIME MINISTER: COVID will not suddenly disappear. So those who would wait for a total end to this war before lifting the remaining regulations would be restricting the liberties of the British people for a long time to come. This government does not believe that that is right or necessary.

DOS SANTOS (voice-over): Australia is also lifting some of its strictest COVID-19 restrictions, as it reopened its international borders on Monday to vaccinated tourists for the first time in nearly two years.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I'm pinging up my best friend. Haven't seen him since 2018. And he made it back just in time for my wedding in four days.

DOS SANTOS (voice-over): The long awaited reunions part of a staggered plan by the government to move away from the cycle of lockdowns and border controls that earns the country, the nickname fortress Australia. Late last year, after parts of the nation reached benchmark vaccination rates, Australia slowly began to reopen its doors. In November, fully vaccinated Australian citizens were allowed to travel abroad and to return home.

But this welcome back isn't without a few ground rules. Travelers must show proof of having two doses of an approved vaccine and Western Australia remains closed until March the 3rd. Unvaccinated people will still have to quarantine but in the states of Victoria and New South Wales, they've recently slashed their isolation periods from 14 to seven days.

DAN TEHAN, AUSTRALIAN TRADE, TOURISM AND INVESTMENT MINISTER: Like going a party out here at Sydney Airport. Everyone's celebrating. It's so great to have the international tourists back from right around the world.

DOS SANTOS (voice-over): New Zealand is also signaling a shift in its COVID-19 measures. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said the nation will begin easing its vaccination mandates and other social distancing rules after its past the peak of the Omicron variant, which experts say could be in the next three to six weeks.

JACINDA ARDERN, NEW ZEALAND PRIME MINISTER: We all want to go back to the way that life was and we will I suspect sooner than you think. But when that happens, it will be because easing restrictions won't compromise the lives of thousands of people not because you demanded it.

DOS SANTOS (voice-over): Ardern referring to protesters inspired by truckers demonstrations in Canada that have camped out in the country's capital to protest vaccine mandates and other government policies. New Zealand zone phased reopening is underway. On Sunday, it'll allow fully vaccinated New Zealand citizens and Australians to enter the country from Australia if they self-isolate for seven days, with more reopenings planned throughout the course of the year.

Nina dos Santos, CNN, London.

(END VIDEOTAPE) VAUSE: Live to Los Angeles and joining us now is Dr. Jorge Rodriguez, an internal medicine specialist. Welcome back.

DR. JORGE RODRIGUEZ, BOARD CERTIFIED INTERNAL MEDICINE SPECIALIST: Thank you.

VAUSE: OK, so just because there may no longer be official guidelines or requirements to wear a mask, or to avoid large gatherings or to maintain social distancing, does that mean it's safe to do so? Can we all throw caution to the wind and take part and say a national doorknob looking contest without COVID concerns?

RODRIGUEZ: Absolutely not. And that's why so much of this -- these decisions are politically expedient, certainly not medically or scientifically sound. And it's very sad. It's very sad to me, that it seems that we've lost the resolve in many different countries, in many different areas, you know, to just persevere. People are tired. And to be quite honest, to me, that's not good enough reason to do things that are not in the long run, the right things to do.

You know, we're going to learn a lesson. In a few months, we're going to learn a lesson that this virus is relentless, there are more variants coming. So, you know, God help us.

VAUSE: We seem not to learn that lesson every time because there is that wild card out there. It's the Omicron sub-variant, it's known as BA.2. It's a dominant strain now more than 70 countries. Your research, according to CNN, finding it may be as capable of causing serious illness as all the variants of COVID-19 including Delta, and like Omicron it appears to be largely escaped immunity created by vaccines.

BA.2 is also resistant to some treatments, including sotrovimab or the monoclonal antibody that's currently being used against Omicron. That's the only effective antibody treatment, I think, for Omicron right now. So by ending restrictions just in time to get the most contagious and potentially deadly a version of the coronavirus, a free run, it seems potentially least creating the perfect storm?

RODRIGUEZ: Yes, absolutely. And it's like we don't learn, you know, from our past last July, when the CDC says take your mascot, you know, throw caution to the wind, let's party. What happened? You know, we had breakthroughs.

My whole thing is I think it is now inevitable that because of politics, restrictions are going to be decreased. So my word of advice is to those people that take this seriously, take care of yourselves and your family.

[01:25:14]

Get vaccinated, get boosted when recommended, take precautions, because you also have rights, you also have the freedom to stay healthy. And if other people don't want to, it is not the most optimal thing. You know, nature will take care of itself, unfortunately. So assume the responsibility for yourself and your loved ones. That's all that you can do right now.

VAUSE: Yes, absolutely. Personal responsibility is a big thing. But just on the BA.2, this is a sub-variant of Omicron.

RODRIGUEZ: Right.

VAUSE: There is some professionals and experts out there who say it should become a variant of concern within its own right. Where do you stand?

RODRIGUEZ: I agree. The information that's come out says that it is possibly 40 percent to 50 percent more infectious and also causes greater illness. If that's the case, you saw how quickly Omicron just peaked throughout the world. This may start peaking soon. We may be wrong, but it sure does not look like it is something to be taken lightly.

VAUSE: Yes, I guess if we're going to start learning to live with COVID, then booster shots are crucial to the live part of that plan. And there is good news on that. It seems that third booster shot, it remains effective for much longer than initially thought, right? And that's raising some questions about the value of a fourth booster shot just for the general public.

RODRIGUEZ: I agree. And I'm going to use myself as an example. I got boosted in late July, early August, then my antibody levels are still extremely high going, what, eight months later. So I think the third shot, the booster shot is probably going to hold off serious infection for around a year, which is why even the CDC in the United States is talking about recommending a fourth booster in August.

The way this is playing out it seems that there may be a yearly shot just like the flu shot. That's probably what's going to be happening in the future.

VAUSE: Just like the regular flu, but much more than that, I guess in many ways. Dr. Jorge Rodriguez, thank you so much.

RODRIGUEZ: Thank you, sir.

VAUSE: So after months of military drills and growing concerns that Russia will invade Ukraine, President Putin now wrapping up the tension inching the region closer to the brink of war. We're live in Ukraine, that's next.

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[01:31:08]

HOLMES: Hello everyone. I'm when Michael Holmes coming to you live from Lviv in Ukraine.

Outrage growing over Moscow's decision to order troops into two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine that the Russian president has recognized as independent. Vladimir Putin claims he is sending peacekeepers which the U.S. envoy

to the U.N. called, "nonsense". It's unclear if any Russian forces have officially stepped across the border though at this point.

A Russian television network, did air video of a military convoy, moving through the streets of Donetsk. The U.N. Security Council held an emergency meeting on Monday that got contentious, with the U.S. calling Russia's moves a, quote, "pretext for war".

Russia's ambassador insisted his country will not allow a bloodbath in eastern Ukraine and that it recognizes separatist regions to protect people living there.

Now, the E.U. is meeting in the coming day to discuss sanctions. And the U.K. plans to announce its own very soon. Right about now, the British Prime Minister, is scheduled to chair a meeting of COBRA. That is, Britain's emergency council which convenes to handle major crises.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BORIS JOHNSON, BRITISH PRIME MINISTER: This is plainly in breach of international law. It is a violation -- flagrant violation of the sovereignty and integrity of Ukraine. It is a repudiation of the Minsk process, and the Minsk Agreements. And I think it's a very ill omen and a very a dark sign.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: CNN's Matthew Chance now with a closer look at the Kremlin's perspective.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MATTHEW CHANCE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: This is the moment Vladimir Putin further escalated this dangerous standoff with Ukraine. Signing a presidential decree that would unilaterally, redraw Ukraine's borders and set back any prospects of diplomacy.

VLADIMIR PUTIN, RUSSIAN PRESIDENT: I consider it necessary to make a long overdue decision to immediately recognize the independence and 0sovereignty of the Donetsk People's Republic, and the Luhansk People's Republic.

CHANCE: For years, those self styled rebel republics backed by Moscow, have been the focus of Ukraine's bitter, civil war. A peace deal, called the Minsk Agreement was meant to end the fighting and reintegrate the breakaway regions in Ukraine. Now Russia and the entire region is on a war footing, once again.

From President Putin, who has massed tens of thousands of Russian troops near Ukraine's borders has made it clear, there will be no quarter given if the governments of Ukraine attempts to resist.

PUTIN: And from those who ceased and hold power in Kyiv, we demand an immediate cessation of hostilities, otherwise all responsibility for the possible continuation of the bloodshed will be, entirely, on the conscience of the regime ruling on the territory of Ukraine.

CHANCE: But it may be Russia that is planning more. Even manufacturing a reason to attack. This is what Russia says a Ukrainian armored vehicle that crossed its border and was quickly destroyed, killing five Ukrainian troops inside.

Ukrainian officials have strongly denied this ever took place. There was no crossing, no Ukrainian casualties -- they insist. All this is just a pretext, they say, to ratchet up tension.

[01:34:44]

CHANCE: Earlier, there was more Kremlin theater on state television. A carefully choreographed session of the normally closed Russian security council discussing eastern Ukraine. And then called on one by one to tell the Russian leader what he wanted to hear.

"The situation there is tense," the Russian defense minister says. "Serious provocations are being prepared," he alleges, "to impose a forcible solution on the region."

The implication is that Russia should act.

"Basically, Ukraine doesn't even need these territories now," said Dimitri Medvedev, a former Russian president and prime minister. "The residents have not been receiving any support from Ukraine in years," he added. "On the contrary, they are subjected to mass repression."

On Russian state media, these were the jubilant scenes in Donetsk, the main city in one of the breakaway regions when news filtered back that Moscow had recognized the territory as an independent state. Russian flags and fireworks set to a blaring national anthem.

But for the U.S. and its allies, this is yet another unilateral, Russian violation of Ukrainian sovereignty to be punished.

Matthew Chance, CNN -- Kyiv.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HOLMES: So what will a Russian invasion in Ukraine look like? A full one?

CNN's Tom Foreman looks at how the Russian military could use it superior firepower.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

TOM FOREMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Ukraine is only about the size of Texas. So, why would Russia need so much force to go after the small area down? Why would they fill the region with so many different troops?

Military experts who look at this say they believe it's because they want to have overwhelming power to support this peacekeeping mission in here and maybe to carry it a lot further. What kind of power are we talking about? Things like the fullback bomber, capable of firing bunker-busting missiles in from across the border, without even getting into Ukrainian airspace. Things like the Iskander short-range ballistic missile systems. There are 36 of these just beyond the border, according to Ukraine, range 310 miles. That's almost half the distance across the country, again, without even crossing the border if they want too.

And then of course, they would have the tanks that they normally send in with their troops. There are artillery, all over the place, and then beyond that, they might even have a very active role to be played out here by the Black Sea fleet and then other troops moving in from this area.

In the end, one of the concerns that military strategist have for the west, is that if they move into this area, Russia will not say merely that we are putting peacekeeping troops here, but that they might say, let's carve out a land bridge to Crimea, which we want anyway and because of the danger, why don't have a zone a little bit further here, just to say, we are just keeping everyone apart, so there won't be much fighting.

And then, maybe beyond that, the concern is, what if they say, we're going to push all the way out here to Dnieper River and say, all of this is for Russia.

And by the way, if the Ukraine army is in here resisting this, there is a real fear that what Russia might try to do, is sweep in behind them, and essentially, isolate them, and come up with a very, very diminished remainder of Ukraine, and a very different-looking map.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HOLMES: Tom Foreman there.

Now clearly the world is watching and waiting for Vladimir Putin's next move. While we wait, CNN's Brian Todd breaks down the Russian president's motives.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

PUTIN: Ukraine is not just our neighboring country, it is an integral part of our own history, culture, and spiritual space.

BRIAN TODD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Analysts say for Vladimir Putin, Ukraine is personal. To hear Putin tell it on Monday, Ukrainians are really Russian, hardly even their own nation.

PUTIN: Ukraine has never had a consistent tradition of being a true nation.

SUSAN GLASSER, CNN GLOBAL AFFAIRS ANALYST: I think, for Vladimir Putin, he is essentially denying the legitimacy of Ukraine as an independent state.

TODD: His speech on Monday, a window into his thinking on history. JOHN SIPHER, FORMER CIA DEPUTY CHIEF OF RUSSIAN OPERATION: He's got

all of these grievances that are built up, and he's trying to solve them all in one sort of very -- you know, a brutal attack on Ukraine.

TODD: Early in his presidency, the former KGB colonel told his nation, the demise of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century. And there was one Soviet republic he especially regretted losing.

GLASSER: For him, Ukraine is the crown jewel that was lost. Ukraine is a sister country.

TODD: Experts say, Putin has always had the view that countries on Russia's periphery have to be pro Russian. And he sees a western friendly Ukrainian government as a threat to that ideal.

MARC POLYMEROPOULOS, FORMER CIA: He doesn't fear NATO. He fears democracy. And Ukraine which is a fledgling democracy in Europe, that is something that he fears, because it's an example for his own people to say.

[01:39:59]

TODD: But they also say the man born and raised in what is now St. Petersburg, the seat of the czars has his own legacy in mind when it comes to what happens in Ukraine.

He wants his legacy to be like the great czars of the past or the heads of the Soviet Union. He left Russia as a great power to be feared, respected and treated seriously in the world.

TODD: Analysts say Putin has chafed at what he's perceived as past U.S. traditions treating Russia like a lesser power. And that flexing his muscle with Ukraine, as a way to keep his country relevant.

He wants people to be coming TO Russia, to solve real problems, him being a threat to others. That is better than being disrespected, or ignored.

TODD: But Kremlin watchers say, the man viewed as the ultimate strategist may have overplayed his hand this time.

GLASSER: Look, it could be a terrible miscalculation. War, you know, leads to unpredictable consequences. The economic consequences of an invasion would be massive on Russia.

TODD: As powerful as Vladimir Putin is analysts say, a drawn out, bloody war in Ukraine, would harm his legacy, and could even start to threaten his hold on power. As one expert points out, significant losses from the war in Afghanistan did contribute to the dissolution of the soviet union.

Brian Todd, CNN -- Washington.

(END VIDEOTAPE) HOLMES: Now, I will be back from Ukraine, with more a little later. But coming up at meantime, millions of Americans under some form of winter weather alert.

John Vause will return to bring you that story, after the break.

[01:44:471

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

VAUSE: Madagascar bracing for a fourth tropical cyclone in less than a month. The latest storm expected to make landfall like Tuesday as a category two, bring strong rain, winds and storm surges.

Well, it may weaking it appears right now on track to follow the same path as recent cyclone. So they're impacting areas already suffering from damage as well as flooding.

Meantime, in the United States, millions are bracing for extreme weather across the country. A series of winter storms will bring heavy snow to the northern United States, possible tornadoes the south. Cold, arctic air will stretch all the way to Texas. And that has nearly 25 million Americans under some sort of winter storm alert.

Well, for the very latest, we're joined now by meteorologist, Karen Maginnis. This is going to be quite a day.

KAREN MAGINNIS, AMS METOROLOGIST: It is. As a matter of fact it's a multi day even but it's impacts are going to be widely self, all the way from the Pacific-Northwest into the Great Basin, the central U.S. especially hit hard, the northern tier with those dangerously cold wind chill factors as well.

As I mentioned, it's a multi day event, which means we will see round and round of wet leather producing flooding in the Tennessee and Ohio River Valley.

All right. Let's take a look at some of the current temperatures and wind chills. I'll show this because Fargo is minus 22 degrees Celsius. It feels like it's minus 36. But for Fargo, it was an extremely dangerous day. Not just there but as we head further north, I want to show you some video coming just to the west of Fargo, this multi vehicle car pileup, all day.

Low visibility, there were gusty winds. The visibility was just apportions of a mile or apportions of a kilometer. We had wind gusts of around 60 kilometers per hour. There were six vehicles, or six people that were taken to hospital from these accidents.

And there were also about six tractor trailer trucks that were involved in this as well. They had to close down a portion of the interstate, but that was during the height of perhaps the most miserable weather with the high winds and the dangerously cold weather. All right. How about some high temperatures? We see these double digit below zero readings. Normal is minus four in Fargo but it's going to be minus 20 or more how cold it's going to be.

Take a look at Minneapolis, even as we head towards Thursday, minus 9, and that's with moderating temperatures.

And now kind of a different version of severe weather and that is in the form of strong to severe thunderstorms. We did just to the northwest of Dallas -- that's where we saw some hail and high winds. Some property damage reports, but no reports of any injuries.

As I mentioned, multi-day events, so this is going to shift more towards the ArkLaTex region into the central Mississippi River Valley, the Ohio River Valley, across Missouri, Tennessee, Arkansas, into Mississippi and Alabama.

It shifts a little bit further towards the east as we head into Tuesday afternoon. So a lot of these folks are going to see between 50, possibly as much as 150 milliliters of rainfall, John.

VAUSE: Wow. Karen, thank you. Karen Maginnis there with (INAUDIBLE) -- I'm sure a lot of people did not want to hear. Thank you.

Europe's most active volcano rumbled back to life Monday. Italy's Mt. Etna sent large plumes of smoke and steam more than 10 kilometers or six miles to the skies over Sicily. Ash rained down on roads and buildings. A nearby airport is closed for a few hours.

Monday's eruption, the latest in a floury of volcanic activity which began last week.

I'm John Vause. That's it for me from Atlanta, but Michael Holmes, live in Lviv, Ukraine has much more on the breaking. He will take it from here. I'll see you tomorrow. Michael.

HOLMES: All right. John, we will see you then. Appreciate that .

Yes, coming up here after the break, escalating tensions are heightening fears of a Russian invasion in Ukraine. And it's impacting the country's economy already. We'll hear from local business operators when we come back.

[01:48:35]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HOLMES: The mood in Kyiv is a somber one today. There aren't any fireworks or celebrations going on, that's for sure. Residents angry that the Russian president is driving their country closer to conflict.

But some believe it doesn't matter what Vladimir Putin recognizes in the Donetsk or Luhansk and that these areas will always be a part of Ukraine.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: What I'm going to say, that's crazy because we don't want a war.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I think this is total nonsense. This shouldn't happen, because this is our land, not theirs, not independent, our land. I think that most citizens also think it's Ukraine.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: An invasion by Russian forces could have a devastating effect on Ukraine's economy, and on local businesses. And some small business operators told me, the escalating tensions are already having an impact.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

HOLMES: Lida Koniukh (ph) manages a small clothing and souvenir business in central Lviv, trying to ignore the drumbeat of possible war echoing around her country.

LIDA KONIUKH, BUSINESSWOMAN (through translator): The situation was a lot better after the new year. But now you can feel the difference. Less tourists mean less business.

HOLMES: Small business operators like Koniukh say these are tough times. No tourists and locals are hunkering down. First with covid lockdowns, now it's the threat of war keeping the cash register quiet.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We don't know what will happen. No one knows it. The situation is difficult for sure.

But if you ask what to do if it gets worse, and my answer is, I don't know. The only thing I know for sure, I will stay here no matter what.

HOLMES: Now, the pocketbook pain for ordinary Ukrainians is obvious. And nationally, it is as well. GDP is down, investors have fled to the sidelines and obviously an invasion would make everything that much were.

But experts say even if Putin's troops stay on the outside, things could be almost as grim as they apply an economic scramble strangle (ph) on this country.

TYMOTY MYLOVANOV, PRESIDENT, KYIV SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS: Absolutely, because the war is not just, you know, kinetic or physical action, it's also economic, it's cyber, it's diplomatic.

[01:54:57]

MYLOVANOV: And you know, businesses are suffering now, and they are diverting resources from development from business investments into protecting operations.

And so if it continues, there will be harassment, there will be damage. And so that's a part of pressure. UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Not so many customers because we are --

HOLMES: Daria Borashenko (ph) manages a popular burger joint in Lviv. People are still coming in, but she is worried about what might come.

Are you worried about how an invasion might affect business?

DARIA BORASHENKO, Yes. It's really hard, because it's a psychological situation. Not only about food, not only about smiles, it's really -- -y

HOLMES: Still, like virtually all Ukrainians we meet, she is both stoic, and confident in here country.

PSAKI: Are you worried about the war?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Many of us, yes. But we are staying calm because we understand, if we will be nervous and with a different panic, it will be not good for us.

HOLMES: Like most Ukrainians, nervous, but unafraid.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HOLMES: Well, thanks for watching everyone. I'm Michael Holmes coming to you live from Lviv in Ukraine.

We will have much more on our breaking news coverage when we come back.

[01:56:34]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HOLMES: Hello and welcome to our viewers in the United States and all around the world. I'm Michael Holmes coming to you live from Lviv in Ukraine.