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Russian Media Posts Video Of Military Convoy In Donetsk; Russian Forces Ordered Into Separatist-Held Areas In Ukraine; U.S. Official Says Biden-Putin Summit Is Unlikely; Fourth Cyclone to Hit Madagascar; Colombia Decriminalizes Abortion. Aired 2-3a ET

Aired February 22, 2022 - 02:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[02:00:01]

MICHAEL HOLMES, CNN INTERNATIONAL ANCHOR: Hello and welcome through our viewers in the United States and all around the world. I'm Michael Holmes coming to you live from Lviv in Ukraine. Our breaking news this hour. The latest move from Vladimir Putin's dangerous playbook has this region on the brink of war and Western leaders scrambling to respond.

ROSEMARY CHURCH, CNN INTERNATIONAL ANCHOR: And I'm Rosemary Church live from CNN world headquarters here in Atlanta. Also, this hour, game plan for living with COVID. England scraps all remaining restrictions.

ANNOUNCER: This is CNN breaking news.

HOLMES: Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered troops to deploy to areas of Eastern Ukraine controlled by Russian-backed separatists. It is the latest escalation in a standoff that has the west on edge. The U.S. is warning Russian forces could arrive in eastern Ukraine at any moment. Now this video from Russian media shows a military convoy already moving through separatists control Donetsk even though it's unclear who the equipment belongs to precisely.

Now Mr. Putin's order came just hours after he signed a decree recognizing the breakaway regions Donetsk and Luhansk as independent republics. Separatists there have long had backing from the Kremlin. U.S., Ukrainian and NATO officials say Moscow supplies them with advice and intelligence even embeds Russian officers in their ranks. Now it's hard to tell if Russia's moves are a prelude to a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. But Mr. Putin appeared to cast doubt on Ukraine's very statehood on Monday.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

VLADIMIR PUTIN, RUSSIAN PRESIDENT (through translator): It is essential to understand that Ukraine has never had a tradition for genuine statehood. And since 1991, it has taken the path of mechanically copying foreign models torn off both from history and from Ukrainian realities. Political and state institutions were constantly reshaped to suit the rapidly formed clans with their selfish interests that had nothing to do with the interests of the Ukrainian people.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: Western leaders were quick to condemn the Russian leader's actions, the U.S. President Joe Biden holding a call with Ukraine's president to discuss all of this. And Volodymyr Zelensky, he appears unwilling to bend to Moscow's move.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

VOLODYMYR ZELENSKY, UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT (through translator): We are not afraid of anything or anyone. We do not owe anything to anyone. We are confident of this.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: Meantime, Mr. Biden has signed an executive order restricting American business in Ukraine's breakaway regions. The United Kingdom also announcing it will impose sanctions. And in the coming hours, European Union officials are expected to discuss sanctions as well. For more on all of this, let's bring in CNN White House correspondent Arlette Saenz. Give us more of a sense of the White House moves and reasoning, Arlette.

ARLETTE SAENZ, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, Michael, the White House continues to monitor the situation regarding Russia and Ukraine with growing concern, as officials are saying that a military attack is very likely. Now, earlier on Monday, President Biden unveiled some sanctions that he would be implementing after Russian President Vladimir Putin recognize the independence of two regions in Eastern Ukraine that are controlled by Russian-backed separatists.

So, these sanctions are very limited. And essentially, what they do is they prevent American businesses from conducting trade or investing in those two specific regions. Now, this is separate from those punishing sanctions that the White House has promised over the course of the past few months that they would implement if Russia moved forward with an invasion. The U.S. of course has been -- has been crafting that larger, more sweeping sanctions package with the cooperation of allies.

And they have yet to actually deploy and implement those sanctions as they are waiting to see what President Putin's next moves will be. Now, the White House on Monday declined to say whether they believe that those troops that Putin has ordered into the Donbass region, whether those would essentially amount to a further invasion of Ukraine. A U.S. official said that Russian forces have been in that area since 2014 when President Putin originally annexed Crimea years ago.

And that it wouldn't necessarily be a new step to have troops there. But so far, the White House has declined to say whether those troops are rivals which could happen at any moment, whether that would amount to a further invasion. Now President Biden spends part of the day Monday working the phones as you noted, speaking with Ukrainian president Zelensky. He also held phone calls with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz as well as French President Emmanuel Macron.

[02:05:01]

SAENZ: The U.S. keeping in very close coordination with its allies as countries around the world are preparing these possible sanctions to enact if Putin does invade Ukraine. The U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations said at that last minute U.N. Security Council meeting, that the U.S. would be implementing additional measures in the days to come as they are watching what Russia's steps will be when it comes to a possible military invasion.

Now, the U.S. is still insistent that it does believe that there is a diplomatic path to try to avert an all-out war but they're also very clear eyed that Russia is positioning and likely to attack in the coming days. Now, one major diplomatic scheduled to keep an eye on is the upcoming meeting between Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. The two men are slated to meet on Thursday.

Right now, State Department officials say that that meeting is still on, they haven't called it off. But that is something that they are constantly evaluating as they are watching Russia's moves when it comes to possibly a full-on military invasion of Ukraine. Michael?

HOLMES: All right. Arlette Saenz. Thanks so much. Appreciate it.

Well, the United Nations Security Council, it met on Monday night for an urgent session that was at the request of Ukraine unsurprisingly. Many member nations spoke out against Russia's move, including the U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. who says it's easy to see what Russia is doing. Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

LINDA THOMAS-GREENFIELD, U.S. AMBASSADOR TO THE U.N.: He has since announced that he will place Russian troops in these regions. He calls them Peacekeepers. This is nonsense. We know what they really are. In doing so, he has put before the world a choice. We must make the moment and we must not look away.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: But even though most nations don't agree with Putin's tactics, some remained staunch allies of the country. CNN Senior U.N. Correspondent Richard Roth breaks down what happened at the U.N.

RICHARD ROTH, CNN SENIOR U.N. CORRESPONDENT: Well, most of the countries here on the Security Council denounced the what was done in condemn Moscow. The Russian ambassador said look, there's not going to be a bloodbath in Eastern Ukraine. He called it a verbal assault in the Security Council, the -- from the amount of countries that were denouncing Moscow. China plated straight down the middle as it always does, appealing and calling for restraint. No violence and diplomacy please. The United Kingdom join the U.S. and saying that they will be revealing new sanctions on Moscow. The Ukrainian Ambassador when he took his mask off due to COVID rules, said there's a virus that is coming from the Kremlin and the U.N. is sick. And it just depends on if the United Nations now will succumb to what Russia is doing. Michael?

HOLMES: Thank you, Richard Roth. European Union leaders are meeting this hour in Brussels to discuss Vladimir Putin's actions. In a tweet earlier, the President of the European Commission said this "The recognition of the two separate U.S. territories in Ukraine is a blatant violation of international law. The territorial integrity of Ukraine and the Minsk agreements." He went on, the E.U. and its partners will react with unity, firmness, and with determination in solidarity with Ukraine.

Now Lithuania's Prime Minister also speaking out she tweeted "Putin just put Kafka and Orwell to shame, no limits to dictator's imagination, no lows too low, no lies too blatant, no red lines to read across. What we witness might seem so real for the Democratic world, but the way we will respond will define us for generations to come. Now, the United Kingdom has already announced it will impose new sanctions and a top diplomat says they will be "Severe and far reaching." The British Prime Minister Boris Johnson adding this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BORIS JOHNSON, BRITISH PRIME MINISTER: This is plainly in breach of international law. It's a violation of a flagrant violation of the sovereignty and integrity of the of Ukraine. It is a repudiation of the Minsk process and the Minsk agreements. And I think it's a very ill omen and a very dark sign.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: All right. Let's get some perspective from a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine. Steven Pifer is a -- now a William Perry Fellow at Stanford University. Mr. Ambassador, thanks so much for your time. What is your read on Putin's move? Peacekeepers or essentially -- potentially partitioning part of a sovereign nation?

[02:10:12]

STEVEN PIFER, FORMER U.S. AMBASSADOR TO UKRAINE: Well, he definitely has violated international law and numerous commitments that Russia has made both to Ukraine, but also the international documents by this move, which basically ignores Ukrainian territorial integrity, and Ukrainian sovereignty. But I worry a little bit more going back to the speech that Mr. Putin made last night, which goes beyond the justification or recognition of the two little stateless of the two little piece -- people's Republic's.

But it looks to me like it was actually laid out a list of grievances, many of which are not based, in fact, for perhaps a broader attack on Ukraine, which may be coming. HOLMES: Yes. You know, it was striking before he gave that speech, there was that televised meeting with Putin ostensibly asking advisors their opinions on this. And then literally a few hours later, he's giving that lengthy speech and signing the order was sort of smacks and he'd already decided on this. Is that you're feeling?

PIFER: Yes. This is all very much staged that Security Council meeting and then the speech and then what do you know, the leaders of the so- called Two People's Republics just happened to be in Moscow. So immediately after the speech, he can sign the documents on recognition of Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic, and sign treaties of mutual friendship and cooperation.

So, this is all very much staged. And I believe it was staged primarily by Mr. Putin aimed at the Russian audience, to prepare the Russian audience for what may be coming, which I fear could be a tragedy both for Ukraine, but also for Russia.

HOLMES: Yes. Because they hear what state media tells them and not a lot else. You touched on this, and let's revisit. Putin making it clear his feelings about those countries that he calls historically part of the Russian Empire. And so, let's talk more about that. Will he -- will he stop here? How far will he go? In Ukraine, of course, but also other former Soviet states, where places like Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania?

Will they be feeling worried right now that they might be next down the road?

PIFER: Well, with a between 150,000 and 200,000 troops now amassed in Crimea and on other areas around Ukraine supporters. Certainly, the Kremlin has the capability to launch a major assault on Ukraine. I think his speech to the Russian public laid out the rationale. And there has been an effort by Moscow to create various pretext to justify this. So, I think Ukraine should be very concerned.

As for the Baltic states, understandably, they're a lot more nervous. This is a Russia, which is showing us readiness to use military force. But one of the reasons I think you've seen NATO, or NATO members begin to increase their force presence in places like Poland, and Lithuania and Romania, is to make very clear that NATO will defend NATO territory, and they're trying to make that very clear message to Moscow.

HOLMES: Yes, good point. A lot of people have said, you know, let's go back to basics, why now, given the risk reward calculus. What is it that's triggered him into doing this?

PIFER: This is really hard to read Vladimir Putin's mind, I look at the costs to Russia, of a military action against Ukraine, which includes sanctions and more weapons going to Ukraine and more military force on NATO's eastern flank. Plus, I believe the Ukrainian military and Ukrainian society will resist. There will be fierce resistance if the Russians go in.

And I look at that, and I say the costs outweigh any possible gain. But I'll also say Vladimir Putin has a different logic. And I think this is perhaps even an emotional subject for him. This desire to claw back Ukraine, which has been moving out of Moscow's orbit. That bothers the Kremlin. But the thing that has driven Ukraine most away from Russia over the past eight years, has precisely been Russian policy, the seizure of Crimea.

And then the conduct of this conflict in Donbass, which has killed more than 14,000 people. And I don't see how -- what they've done today with the recognition of these two statements. And that's not going to win Russia, any more points in Ukraine, and to be sure if there is a major Russian -- new major Russian military assault on Ukraine, that also is not going to win any points for Russia. They're going to create a very hostile population in Ukraine.

HOLMES: Yes, indeed. There is a huge opposition everyone I speak to here in Lviv certainly. [02:15:01]

HOLMES: You're a diplomat. How do you see the state of diplomacy right now? I mean, I guess that, you know, there's not a war right now but it's, you know, it's -- so it's working in that regard. But how precarious are the diplomatic efforts? And also, has the U.S. been, you know, straightened enough in it -- in its warnings?

PIFER: Well, I think there -- one should always leave the path open for diplomacy. But I've seen little sign that Moscow is interested in diplomacy. In fact, if you look over the last 2-1/1 months, at every opportunity, when there's a chance for diplomacy, it seems that the Russians either say no, you in the West haven't met our key demands, or they escalate. The decisions that were taken by Mr. Putin yesterday were an escalation.

And again, I think diplomacy has a chance, but before it is pushed, there has to be some sense that the economy is ready for diplomacy.

HOLMES: Yes. Great analysis Ambassador Steven Pifer, thank you so much. Really appreciate your time.

PIFER: Thank you.

HOLMES: All right. Much more from Ukraine at the bottom of the hour. But first, let's go back to Rosemary Church in Atlanta with the day's other news. Good to see you, Rosemary.

CHURCH: And you, too. Thank you so much, Michael. We'll catch you very soon. So, after two years of tight pandemic border controls, more countries are welcoming back travelers and learning to live with COVID.

Coming up. Easing restrictions, emotional reunions, and endless relief. We'll have the details.

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[02:20:45] CHURCH: In the United Kingdom, an additional COVID booster shot will be available within weeks to those older than 75 and the most vulnerable. All part of Britain's new learning to live with COVID approach. This week, England will end all pandemic restrictions, just one of many nations to do so with new infections globally on the decline. CNN's Nina Dos Santos has our report.

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NINA DOS SANTOS, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice over): Living with COVID-19 according to the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, it's the way forward in the next phase of the U.K.'s battle with the coronavirus. Johnson says that since there's sufficient immunity built up over the past two years, on Thursday, all coronavirus restrictions will end in England. People who test positive will no longer legally be required to isolate.

Routine contact tracing operations will stop and free universal testing will cease in April. He says that even though the pandemic isn't over, it's important to shift away from government mandates to personal responsibility.

JOHNSON: COVID will not suddenly disappear. Though -- so those who would wait for a total end to this war, before lifting the remaining regulations would be restricting the liberties of the British people for a long time to come. This government does not believe that that is right or necessary.

DOS SANTOS: Australia is also lifting some of its strictest COVID-19 restrictions, as it reopened its international borders on Monday to vaccinated tourists for the first time in nearly two years.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I'm picking up my best friend. Haven't seen him since 2018. And he made it back just in time for my wedding in four days.

DOS SANTOS: The long-awaited reunions part of a staggered plan by the government to move away from the cycle of lockdowns and border controls that earned the country. The nickname Fortress Australia. Late last year, after parts of the nation reached benchmark vaccination rates. Australia slowly began to reopen its doors. In November, fully vaccinated Australian citizens were allowed to travel abroad and to return home.

But this welcome back isn't without a few ground rules. Travelers must show proof of having two doses of an approved vaccine and Western Australia remains closed until March the 3rd. Unvaccinated people will still have to quarantine but in the states of Victoria and New South Wales, they've recently slashed their isolation periods from 14 to seven days.

DAN TEHAN, MINISTER FOR TRADE, TOURISM AND INVESTMENT OF AUSTRALIA: We're throwing a party out here at Sydney Airport. Everyone's celebrating. It's so great to have the international tourists back from right around the world. DOS SANTOS: New Zealand is also signaling a shift in its COVID-19 measures. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said the nation will begin easing its vaccination mandates and other social distancing rules after it's past the peak of the Omicron variant, which experts say could be in the next three to six weeks.

JACINDA ARDEN, NEW ZEALAND PRIME MINISTER: We all want to go back to the way that life was and we will I suspect sooner than you think. But when that happens, it will be because easing restrictions won't compromise the lives of thousands of people not because you demanded it.

DOS SANTOS: Arden referring to protesters inspired by truckers demonstrations in Canada that have camped out in the country's capital to protest vaccine mandates and other government policies.

New Zealand's own phased reopening is underway. On Sunday it'll allow fully vaccinated New Zealand citizens and Australians to enter the country from Australia if they self-isolate for seven days with more reopenings planned throughout the course of the year. Nina Dos Santos, CNN, London.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CHURCH: And CNN's Anna Stewart joins us now from Windsor, England with the latest from there. Good to see you, Anna. So, just as the British public were coming to terms with news that Queen Elizabeth has COVID. Now England's preparing to drop restrictions Thursday. What's been the reaction to this news so far?

ANNA STEWART, CNN REPORTER: Well, I'd say it certainly hasn't been one of surprise because living with COVID, this plan was long anticipated really. For some it's welcome news. Lots of people fed up with COVID rules and restrictions, fed up with masks, fed up with sticking swabs up their noses. But for others, Rosemary, this is really concerning. Not least the end of free testing, mass testing for the population which I think gave a huge degree of confidence for people.

And also knowing that those that did test positive were legally required to stay at home and weren't relying on people's judgement. So, for some, this is a worry. For scientists, certainly there's a concern that without the mask testing that we've had so far, it'll be trickier to identify new barriers of concern that may emerge in following waves of COVID-19. Although the government did say they could introduce such testing, so we could see that come back.

The Prime Minister was very clear to say that this is no victory against COVID. The pandemic is not over yet. However, he said that levels of immunity here in the U.K. as a result of vaccinations, but also just so many ways of COVID, the levels of immunity are very high. And also, deaths at this stage are very low. The latest data showing just 15 deaths after -- 28 days after a positive test result here in the U.K.

There was also the cost and I think this was a big reason to end at least the mass testing, which cost the U.K. two billion pounds just last month. That's around $2.7 billion. It feels like we're a bit of a test case, a bit of an outlier ending all COVID restrictions, but actually we're following in the footsteps of countries like Denmark and Sweden. Will this be an end of restrictions forever for the foreseeable or is this just the end of the latest wave?

I think we'll have to see. Lots of people wonder whether we'll be back into restrictions before we know it. Rosemary?

CHURCH: Yes. And indeed, the whole world will be watching to see what path is taken on that. Anna Stewart, many thanks for joining. Appreciate it.

Well, a big setback for hopes of diplomacy. The Russian President threatens the Ukrainian government and tries to redraw the country's borders. We are live from Ukraine with Western condemnation and Russian indignation. Back in just a moment.

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[02:30:00]

HOLMES: Welcome back, everyone. I am Michael Holmes, coming to you live from Lviv, Ukraine, where we are tracking uproar and alarm over Russia's troubling maneuvers that have ramped up the crisis in Eastern Ukraine. Russian troops could move into the separatist region -- regions at any time now. They might already be there. Russian media has been airing a video of a convoy -- a military convoy -- this is in the streets of Donetsk. Though, it is still unclear exactly who that equipment belongs to.

Now, Ukraine's President addressed the nation earlier and insisted, "We don't owe anything to anyone and we will not give anything to anyone." And he thanked the Ukrainian people for keeping their cool.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

VOLODYMYR ZELENSKY, UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT (through translator): We have been prepared for a long time for any scenario. But there is no reason for your sleepless nights.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: Meanwhile, the Russian President has accused authorities in Kyiv of carrying out what he called, punitive operations, two of them in Donetsk and Luhansk. Those are the Russian-backed separatist areas in light red on your screen there. And Russia's U.N. envoy says, they will not allow a bloodbath. Ukrainian authorities deny any attack. But Vladimir Putin calling on them to immediately halt hostilities, and said if they don't, bloodshed would be their fault. He also basically insulted the entire existence of Ukraine's government. Well, CNN Contributor Jill Dougherty is in Moscow and looks at what's going on inside the Kremlin.

JILL DOUGHERTY, FORMER CNN MOSCOW BUREAU CHIEF: Events here in Moscow have been unfolding in a choreographed fashion. A few days ago, the Lower House Parliament, the Duma, requests President Putin to recognize those two breakaway regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. Then, President Putin sits down with his security council, a meeting that is usually held behind closed doors, but this time, the cameras are there. President Putin does decide to recognize the regions, and then he delivers a long and furious speech talking about what he views as the history of Ukraine, claiming that it was stitched together with pieces torn from Russia. He also rails against NATO coming closer to Russia's border. And then, a chilling warning that any further bloodshed will be on the conscience of the Ukraine' regime.

Now, the two leaders of those breakaway regions were in the Kremlin when President Putin signed an agreement on friendship, cooperation, and mutual assistance. And part of that includes an order from President Putin to the armed forces to ensure what he called, peacekeeping functions in the region. Now, that leaves the door open for Russian forces to be on the ground in Ukraine. Jill Dougherty, Moscow.

HOLMES: So, what will a Russian invasion into Ukraine look like? CNN's Tom Foreman looks at how the Russian military could use its superior power.

TOM FOREMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Ukraine is only about the size of Texas. So, why would Russia need so much force to go after this small area down here? Why would they have filled the region with so many different troops? Military experts have looked at this, say they believe it's because they want to have overwhelming power to support this peacekeeping mission in here, and maybe to carry it a lot further.

[02:35:00]

What kind of power are we talking about? Things like, the full-back bomber, capable of firing bunker-busting missiles in from across the border without even getting into Ukrainian airspace. Things, like the Iskander-M short-ranged ballistic missile system. There are 36 of these just beyond the border, according to Ukraine. Range, 310 miles, that's almost half the distance across the country, again, without even crossing the border if they want to. And then, of course, they would have the tanks that they normally send in with their troops. Their artillery all over the place. And then, beyond that, they might even have a very active role to be played out here by the black sea fleet and then other troops moving in from this area.

In the end, one of the concerns that military strategists have for the West is that, if they move into this area, Russia will not say merely that we're putting peacekeeping troops here. But that, they might say, let's carve out a land bridge to Crimea, which we want anyway, and because of the danger, why don't we have a zone a little bit further out here just to say we're just keeping everyone apart so there won't be much fighting. And then, maybe beyond that, the concern is what if they say we are going to push all the way out here to the Dnieper River and say all of this is for Russia.

And by the way, if the Ukraine army is in here resisting this, there is a real fear that what Russia might try to do is sweep in behind them, and essentially isolate them and come up with a very, very diminished remainder of Ukraine and a very different-looking map.

HOLMES: Tom foreman there.

All right. Coming up, rising tensions continue to rattle markets around the world. We are live in Hong Kong with the latest, next.

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[02:40:00]

Welcome back. Investors around the world are keeping a close eye on the escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine and the effect that it's all having on global markets. To talk more about this, CNN's Kristie Lu Stout joins me from Hong Kong. Kristie.

KRISTIE LU STOUT, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Michael, stocks continue to fall across the Asia Pacific region. This after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered Russian troops to enter those pro-Moscow separatist regions in Eastern Ukraine. And if we bring up the latest data for you, you will see a landscape painted in red. In Japan, the Nikkei down, 1.7 percent. The Seoul Kospi, losing one and a third. Here in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng losing almost three percent. Meanwhile, the Shanghai Composite down almost once percent.

I should also add that concerns about additional high-tech restrictions also weighing on the markets across China. Also, this day, from Asia, we've been monitoring U.S. futures. And they do indicate and point to a lower open in the United States when markets re-open after that President's Day Holiday, on Monday. Dow Futures down 1.53 percent. Nasdaq Futures losing 3.7 percent. S&P 500 down, almost two and a half percent.

Also, on Monday, we had that statement from the White House indicating that U.S. President Joe Biden plans to impose sanctions on those pro- Moscow separatist regions in Eastern Ukraine. That announcement has sent the price of crude oil soaring. What we have here is just growing volatility, growing uncertainty about the fate and future of Ukraine and beyond. And the bottom line is, this is not good news for the markets.

In fact, I want to share a couple statements for you. This one, from Craig Erlam, he is a senior market analyst with Oanda in a research note. He writes this, "It feels like the situation can dramatically escalate at any moment and that is going to keep investors on edge for now. We may well be on the brink of something terrible happening and that's continuing to feed into the negativity in the markets."

We also received a statement from Westpac Banking Group from Damien McColough, he's the head of fixed income search there. And he tells CNN, "I do think it's as much a short squeeze as a flight to quality. Today's move is clearly an escalation, which suggests that the current risk rewards will favor lower long-end yields." And sure enough, the crisis in Ukraine has driven up the price in gold, has driven up the price in treasury bonds as investors continue to hunt and scramble to find those safe havens out there. Michael, over to you.

HOLMES: All right. Kristie Lu Stout there in Hong Kong. Appreciate it. Thanks so much.

And much more from Ukraine, coming up. But first, let's take it back to Rosemary in Atlanta. Rosemary.

CHURCH: All right. Thanks so much, Michael. Appreciate it.

For more, I'm joined by Rana Foroohar. She is a CNN Global Economic Analyst, plus global business columnist and associate editor for the "Financial Times." Thank you so much for being with us.

RANA FOROOHAR, CNN GLOBAL ECONOMIC ANALYST: Thanks for having me.

CHURCH: So, Russia's actions are already having an impact on global markets and oil prices. If war breaks out, the economic ramification will extend from Ukraine to Russia and right across the world. So, let's start with what an invasion of Ukraine would mean at the global level? What can we expect to see happen economically around the world?

FOROOHAR: Well, Rosemary, you mentioned oil and energy is really the primary risk at the moment. You know, you're already seeing crude prices surging just off the back of -- of what we are seeing now, troop movements, aggression, threats. I would say that you're probably going to see if there is proper invasion, a 20 percent increase in the price of crude that's going to trickle through to all kinds of energy inputs, the price of gas, heating your home.

Europe is going to be the hardest hit, in the short-term. I mean, they are already really suffering from energy price inflation. And of course, they're in an incredibly vulnerable position. Germans, in particular, depending so much on energy for Russia on energy. The U.S. is trying to supply a lot more to Europe. But its supplies are limited. So, energy inflation is going to be an issue, primarily in Europe, but also around the world.

And then, you're going to start to see stocks, you know, waiver. We had already seen that last week. The Dow bringing in some of its worst days of the year.

[02:45:00]

I would expect to see a really, really turbulent global market. At a time when you've already got -- you have to remember and pull back and look at the context here. You've got supply shocks from COVID. You've got blockages still from the virus. Lots of things happening in the global economy. This is just one more big thing putting kerosene on that fire.

CHURCH: Yes, certainly the last thing the world needs at this time, right? So, the massing of Russian troops at Ukraine's border has already had a negative impact on that country's economy. So, what would be the consequences if Russian troops start moving into Eastern Ukraine, specifically into the two separatist territories that President Putin has now recognized as independent states in perhaps the first steps of a large-scale invasion of Ukraine?

FOROOHAR: Yes. Well, -- all right. Just looking at the size of the Ukrainian economy, it's not a big deal within the context of the global economy. But you have to look at it in terms of a new-world order that is order that is taking shape here. You know, we've come out of 40 years of a new liberal world order in which the U.S. globalized -- was leading globalization through the rest of the world. All -- actual prices now COVID. And you can see that we're moving from a unipolar world to at least a bipolar world where you have the U.S. and China as sort of separate spheres of influence. And Russia is very much part of that -- that China orbit.

So, it starts to make you wonder, well, where is Europe going to land in all of this? That kind of geopolitical risk factor is not something that the markets like. And they don't really know how to price it. You know, I mean, you have to think about the fact that we haven't seen a troop surge like this in Europe since 1945.

Markets are used to calm. They're used to order. They're used to globalization. What we are seeing is just the opposite of that. It's the movement towards a new fragmented world and really the end of the old order. I think that's going to bring all kinds of market turbulence and I think it's very difficult to predict where the dominos are going to fall right now but it is going to be a volatile year.

CHURCH: And, Rana, if Russia invades, the West will of course apply what it has called the most severe economic sanctions ever witnessed. What impact could those sanctions have on Russia's economy?

FOROOHAR: Well, they could certainly have a huge impact. I can't think about Putin's actions in just economic terms. I mean, this is someone who believes he has a kind of a serious mission to create a new Imperial Russia. To reunite the Russia of old. I think that he will be prepared to take a lot of pain and like most autocrats, be prepared to run huge deficits. You know, China can probably come in and pick up some of the oil that will be off the market because of sanctions. You know, you could see even some financial activity being taken up by China in the Middle East.

It's hard to say certainly it's going to hit hard but I don't think it is going to hit hard enough to make him pull troops out right away.

CHURCH: Yes. We'll watch to see what happens next. Very delicate moment in the world's history, in fact, is where we stand right now. Rana Foroohar I thank you so much for staying with us. Appreciate it.

FOROOHAR: Thank you.

CHURCH: Millions of Americans are under some form of winter-weather alert with snow, sleet, and freezing rain from the Northern Plains to the Great Lakes. A live report from the CNN weather desk is coming up.

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A series of winter storms will bring a combination of heavy snow to the Northern United States and possible tornadoes to the South. And a tornado watch is now issued for portions of Oklahoma, Arkansas and Texas. For the latest forecast we are joined now by meteorologist Karen __. Good to see you, Karen.

So, what is driving this strange mix of extreme weather?

KAREN MAGINNIS, CNN Meteorologist: I'm calling it the February surprise where we are seeing such harsh weather conditions like unlike anything that we see, typically this late in the winter season with desperately cold windchill factors, excessive rainfall, and still that threat for severe weather across the deep South. That's not even talking about the weather across the Western United States where a brewing weather system gathers strength across the Great Basin, the four corners region and then still continues to pummel much of the Central U.S. and into the Eastern Coast as we head towards the weekend.

Now, look at these temperatures right now, Fargo is minus eight. That's not an exceptional temperature as were -- well, it is and exceptional temperature, it's minus eight with the windchill factor of minus 35. We have gone back to degrees Fahrenheit. But I want to show you what happened just to the West of Fargo. There was a pile up of vehicles, six people injured. This on Interstate 94, with blizzard conditions. These first responders were really in very desperate conditions here. Trying to get people free from their vehicles. There were a number of large trucks. And vehicles on those roadways where the visibility was exceptionally poor.

All right in the forecast, even in Fargo, is still going to stay exceptionally cold. Zero degrees coming up on Thursday. The normal high is about 25. And yes, the severe weather is still rampaging right across the Ark-La-Tex Region with heavy rainfall and the risk for severe weather. Back to you.

CHURCH: All right. Karen Maginnis, many thanks for wrapping that up for us.

Well, Madagascar is bracing for the fourth tropical cyclone to hit the country in less than a month.

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Emnati is expected to make land fall late Tuesday evening as a category 2 storm bringing strong rain, winds and storm surge. While it may be weakening, forecasters warn the storm may follow the same path as other recent cyclones. Further impacting areas already suffering damage and flooding.

Colombia is the latest country in Latin America to partially decriminalize abortion. The constitutional court ruled on Monday in favor of legalizing the procedure up until the 24th week of pregnancy. Abortion at any time afterwards remains a crime. The ruling is warder shared victory for nations feminist movement and it reflects a wider shift in views -- public church holds major influence. Mexico's Supreme Court and Argentina's senate have also decriminalized abortion in recent months. I want to thank you for joining us. I'm Rosemary Church. Michael Holmes will join me from Ukraine with more news on the evolving crisis with Russia after this short break. Do stay with us. You're watching CNN.

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