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Vladimir Putin Deployed Peacekeeping Troops to Eastern Ukraine; American Business Prohibited in Donetsk and Luhansk; U.N. Security Council Discuss Response to Putin's Action; United Kingdom Lifting COVID-19 Restrictions; Hague Hearing On Alleged Rohingya Genocide. Aired 3-4a ET

Aired February 22, 2022 - 03:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[03:00:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MICHAEL HOLMES, CNN ANCHOR (on camera): Hello and welcome to our viewers here in the United States and all around the world. I'm Michael Holmes in Lviv, Ukraine.

Now breaking news this hour, the latest move from Vladimir Putin's dangerous playbook has this region on the brink of war and western leaders scrambling to respond.

ROSEMARY CHURCH, CNN ANCHOR (on camera): And I'm Rosemary Church live from CNN world headquarters in Atlanta. Also, this hour, a game plan for living with COVID. England scraps all remaining restrictions.

UNKNOWN: This is CNN breaking news.

HOLMES: Welcome, everyone. Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered troops to deploy to areas of eastern Ukraine controlled by Russian-backed separatists. It is the latest escalation in a standoff that has the west on edge. The U.S warning Russian forces could arrive in eastern Ukraine at any moment.

The video there on your screen is from Russian media and shows a military convoy moving through separatist-controlled Donetsk. Even though it is unclear who the equipment belongs to.

Mr. Putin's order came after he signed a decree recognizing the breakaway regions of Donetsk and Luhansk as the independent republics. Separatist there have long had backing from Moscow and Putin's announcement further cements that relationship. It's hard to tell if Russia's moves are a prelude to full scale invasion of Ukraine but Mr. Putin appeared to cast doubt on Ukraine's very statehood on Monday.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

VLADIMIR PUTIN, RUSSIAN PRESIDENT (through translator): It is essential to understand that Ukraine has never had a tradition for genuine statehood. And since 1991 it has taken the path of mechanically copying foreign models. Torn off both from history and from Ukrainian realities. Political and state institutions were constantly reshaped to suit the rapidly formed clans with their selfish interests that had nothing to do with the interests of the Ukrainian people.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES (on camera): Many world leaders were quick to condemn the Russian leader's actions. U.S. President Joe Biden holding a call with Ukraine's president to discuss it. And Volodymyr Zelensky appears unwilling to bend to Russia's move.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

VOLODYMYR ZELENSKY, PRESIDENT OF UKRAINE (through translator): We are on our land. We are not afraid of anything or anyone. We do not know owe anything to anyone. We are confident of this.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES (on camera): Meantime, Mr. Biden has signed an executive order restricting American business in Ukraine's breakaway regions, and the U.N. held an emergency security council meeting to discuss all of this with the U.S. ambassador accusing Russia of creating a pretext to invade.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

LINDA THOMAS-GREENFIELD, U.S. AMBASSADOR TO THE UNITED NATIONS: He has since announced that he will place the Russian troops in the region. He calls them peacekeepers. This is nonsense. We know what they are. In doing so, he has put before the world a choice. We must meet the moment and we must not look away.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES (on camera): European Union leaders are meeting this hour in Brussels to discuss Vladimir Putin's actions. They will decide on sanctions against Russia in the hours ahead. That's according to the E.U. high representative.

Now in a tweet earlier, the president of the European commission said, quote, "the recognition of the two separatist territories in Ukraine is a blatant violation of international law, the territorial integrity of Ukraine and the Minsk agreements. The E.U. and its partners will react with unity, firmness, and with determination and solidarity with Ukraine."

Now CNN has reporters stand out across the globe covering every aspect of the story. Arlette Saenz is in Washington this hour. Scott McLean is in Brussels. Arlette Saenz, we'll start with you. Bring us up to date on Washington's position and their action so far.

ARLETTE SAENZ, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, Michael, the White House remains on high alert as they are waiting to see what's next steps Russian President Vladimir Putin will take as far as a possible invasion of Ukraine. Now the White House and other top officials have been warning about Putin's intentions for the past few days.

And today, the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, Linda Thomas- Greenfield, she talked about how Putin is following the playbook that they predicted he would when it comes to a possible invasion. And that they do not see him stopping his actions now.

[03:04:59]

Now after Putin declared the independence of those two Russian separatists-backed regions the U.S. moved forward with implementing some very targeted but limited sanctions that are applied to that region. Essentially the sanctions that President Biden signed or put in place a via an executive order would prevent U.S. businesses from conducting trade or investing in those specific regions.

But the sanctions are separate from what -- from what the administration has been promising for months now. As they have been working closely with allies to impose a punishing and severe sanctions against Russia should it further move in with an incursion into Ukraine.

Now one thing that White House officials so far have not done is define what that further -- what would amount to a further invasion. Putin has said he is sending these, quote, unquote, "peacekeeping troops" into that region. But the White House has declined to say whether that would mark the moment that a further invasion has occurred.

Now President Biden over the course of Monday was consulting closely with allies holding phone calls with the French president, as well as the German chancellor and Ukrainian President Zelensky. The U.S. has been coordinating closely with allies when it comes to those sanctions and top officials said to expect measures in the coming days as they further watch Russia's next moves.

Now even as the U.S. is preparing for a possible military invasion of Ukraine by Russia, administration officials still say that they're going to continue working through those diplomatic efforts to try to de-escalate the situation. As one senior administration official put it, the diplomacy will continue until the tanks roll in.

But the White House has been very clear eyed about Putin's planning that they are watching and monitoring the movements. Watching this military buildup, and even as they say that they want to achieve and avert a war through these diplomatic means they also are very cognizant of the fact that the steps that Putin has put into place are signaling that an invasion could happen at any moment.

HOLMES: Arlette Saenz in Washington, thanks so much. Scott Mclean, let's bring you in now to talk about the E.U, consideration of sanctions. You know, it's interesting the U.S. mild sanctions because Russians were there in the Donbas before. I mean, it seems semantics. Russian boots regulars are about to step into Ukraine. So, what's the sanctions attitude there?

SCOTT MCLEAN, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes, there's a lot of dancing around in terms of the language for sure, Michael. But look, the reality is that the E.U.s top diplomat Josep Borrell said yesterday that if Russia were to annex these two breakaway regions of eastern Ukraine, then there would be sanctions. Period. End of story.

If they were to be recognized by Russia then he would float sanctions and essentially let ministers decide. And now, that's the situation that we find ourselves in. Europe has some decisions to make. Now foreign ministers from across the continent were here yesterday for a pre-scheduled meeting. They also met with the Ukraine foreign minister and many of them likely went home to their respective capitals at the end of the day.

But they will need to come back today because we have just gotten confirmation that there will be an extraordinary meeting of the foreign affairs council, that is all the foreign ministers around Europe to decide on what they want to do about sanctions.

And remember that any decisions made need -- needs to be a unanimous consensus. Of course, overnight there has been a torrent of official reaction and statements all of them condemning Russians -- Russia's decision as a violation of international law. And an attack on Ukraine's territorial integrity as well.

The question now is, will the strong words match the strong action? Some countries like Ireland and Latvia have called for sanctions point-blank. France has called for-limited sanctions and Spain and Germany said that they would consult with their allies, in other words, they need to stay tuned.

The European Council president you mentioned, he said they would react with unity and firmness. And remember, Michael, a sanctions package has been prepared already. And so, it's just a matter of when that will go out. That was prepared in the event of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, and as you mention, everybody's been careful as to how they characterize this.

In fact, Josep Borrell was asked whether he believes, just this morning, this is the beginning of a Ukrainian invasion or a Russian invasion of Ukraine. And he said, well, look, they are in the Donbas. We believe that is part of -- that is part of Ukrainian territory.

[03:10:08]

He wouldn't call it a full-scale invasion but what he did say is that there are Russian troops on the ground in Ukraine right now. Michael?

HOLMES: Yes, words matter, don't they? Scott McLean in Brussels, Arlette Saenz in Washington, thanks to you both.

All right, now I want to bring in Orysia Lutsevich who is in London. She is a research fellow and manager of the Ukraine forum in the Russia and Eurasia program at Chatham House.

It's great to have you back. This decision is essentially, you know, an excuse to go into the Donbas, of course. What is your fear in terms of the separatists continuing to fire on Ukrainian positions? Ukrainians not being able to fire back because it could provoke a provocation that Putin needs to go further. What is your read?

ORYSIA LUTSEVICH, RESEARCH FELLOW, CHATHAM HOUSE: Well, Michael, my view and analysis of the situation is and has been like we've discussed before that Donbas, the parts of the occupied eastern parts of Ukraine is the staging ground for a new military invasion. What is important to understand is that Russia was always denying there were its troops and Donbas although it was arming, directing the militant formations that it has created there.

And you know, in this Russian playbook for the occupation is very simple. They grab pieces of land and then they call in the peacekeepers to keep these pieces of land. They issue passports to the civilians there. Then they stage fake humanitarian disasters and come there to protect them. It's just invasion in a different way.

So, I think it's time for the very resolute response from the west to expose exactly this duplicity like U.S. ambassador to the U.N. said. We know what they are. They are not peacekeepers. They are Russian special operations, special troops here doing circle and take more Ukrainian territory.

HOLMES: Yes. And to that point this whole issue of the sanctions, I mean, the U.S. position seems to be well, Russians were there helping anyway so this is kind of, you know, not new. So, they are putting in fairly mild sanctions in a way. But the reality, isn't it, that these are Russian regular stepping foot on sovereign Ukraine. Should the full wrath of sanctions be applied now?

LUTSEVICH: I mean, we just had a discussion on sanctions in Chatham House recently with experts and many of them agree that you would have to go hard from the very beginning. I mean, we should also not expect from sanctions to di miracles. But let's be honest. The kinds of sanctions that executive order impose on DNR and PMR formations, I mean, who's going to do business in those areas anyway? Who is doing business today from American companies in Transnistria or occupied South Ossetia pr even in Crimea?

That is not going to hurt the perpetrators, the aggressors. So, we have to target the source. And the source of instability in Europe is Kremlin, it's Putin, his entourage and we see him playing along the script that has been designed and I'm sure he's in the possession of American intelligence.

So, I hope that E.U. will be more resolute and also that U.S. will ramp up its punitive effect of sanctions.

HOLMES: Now Vladimir Putin made it clear in his speech his feelings about not just Ukraine but the countries he calls historically part of the Russian empire. I guess the question is, you know, will he stop here? I mean, how far will he go in Ukraine of course. But do other former Soviet states Latvia or Estonia, or Lithuania and others, should they be worried that they might be next in the months or years ahead?

LUTSEVICH: I mean, honestly, I think Putin has a very strong possession of this kind of new imperial spirit. I mean, we see his preoccupation so much about gathering Russian historical lands what he thinks. And where does it stop? You're right.

Well, I mean, look at Belarus. This is already been swallowed by Russia as we speak. In Narva, for example, that's in Estonia, it has a substantial Russian speaking population. And Russia is expanding also its influence in Central Asia.

So, I think this is the war of either we put a stop to this revisionist policy and basically stop Russian imperialists progressive -- progressing, or the whole of European continent will be a threat where history will be a pretext for border revisions. And this is a receipt for disaster.

[03:15:02]

HOLMES: One of the great unanswered questions in all of this is, why it's Vladimir Putin bringing this to a head now? What is it that's triggering him into making such moves at this particular point for no apparent obvious reason?

LUTSEVICH: I see two reasons. One is that Putin was not able to achieve his goals in Ukraine by crippling Ukrainian states using this conflict in the east as a leverage and to federalize Ukraine to make it weak and to slice it as the salami.

This tactic didn't work Ukraine was holding. Not only was it holding but it was building a very viable strategic partnership with the European Union, NATO, and United States. So that's one reason. He really wants to wreak Ukraine.

And other one is that Russia feels that it has enough power to compel NATO and U.S. to retreat from Eastern Europe. They think that they are bold enough to use military threat, that the west will be divided and Russia will get a seat at the global table with its own sphere of coercion where they can control policymaking in those neighboring countries. And this was the calculus.

It's to demonstrate that Russia is bold enough to compel everybody else to pay attention to it. It's kind of a bully that is calling disturbance in order to attract attention to its action.

HOLMES: Great analysis as always. Orysia Lutsevich, great to see you. Thank you so much.

Much more from Ukraine at the bottom of the hour. But first, let's go back to Rosemary in Atlanta with today's other stories. Rosie?

CHURCH: All right. Thank you so much, Michael. We'll see you again very soon.

We're also following developments in the coronavirus pandemic. the U.K. is among the latest countries moving towards living with the virus. Restrictions are set to end this week. And we will have the latest in a live report from England in just a moment. Stay with us.

[03:20:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CHURCH (on camera): In the United Kingdom, an additional COVID booster shot will be available within weeks to those older than 75 and the most vulnerable. All part of Britain's new learning to live with COVID approach. The prime minister outlined England's roadmap Monday for ending COVID measures. However, Boris Johnson also made clear the pandemic is not over.

And CNN's Anna Stewart joins us now from Windsor, England with the very latest on all of this. Good to see you, Anna.

So, the British public only just finding out that Queen Elizabeth has COVID. Now England is preparing to drop all restrictions on Thursday. How is everyone responding to this?

ANNA STEWART, CNN REPORTER: Well, it's certainly not a surprise because this plan to live with COVID was really very much expected. The two -- the two key points that were made yesterday one that people from Thursday who test positive for COVID-19 will no longer be required by law to self-isolate although there is still advice that they should do so.

At least until April at which stage the government will end all free testing. And that has certainly caused some concern. But here what the prime minister said yesterday when he made this announcement.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BORIS JOHNSON, BRITISH PRIME MINISTER: Today is not the day we can declare victory over COVID because this virus is not going away. But it is the day when all the efforts of the last two years finally enable us to protect ourselves whilst restoring our liberties in full.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

STEWART (on camera): And the end of the restrictions applies currently just to England. The other nations of the U.K. have yet to make their decisions. In terms of the reaction for some people this is welcome news, it does feel like a return to some sort of liberty or return to maybe a bit more of a normal pre-COVID 19.

People are fed up with taking COVID tests, taking things up their noses, wearing masks, and so on. But for others it's really concerning. People have a lot of confidence that because there is free testing, mask through the population that people would know whether or not they had a cold or whether they had COVID. And people would have to self-isolate with COVID-19. Which of course still for some people does cause severe illness.

But the government saying that immunity levels in the U.K. are very high, deaths are now incredibly low, just 15 recorded 28 days passed a COVID-19 positive test result in the latest data. So, it feels like we're maybe a bit of a test case here. We're not actually. The U.K. is following in the footsteps of Denmark and Sweden as well, and it will be interesting to see whether with the next day of COVID-19 which may well happen or the next variant of concern whether they have to hit the reverse and go back into some sort of restrictions. But for now, it is looking increasingly like back to normal. Rosemary?

CHURCH: All right. Learning to live with COVID. Anna Stewart joining us live from Windsor, many thanks.

Well after months of military drills and wondering whether Russia will invade, President Putin has ramps up the showdown moving the region to the precipice of war. We are live in Ukraine, that is next.

And later, the new escalation of tensions is rattling investors around the world. We will have a check of the markets just ahead. Stay with us.

[03:25:00]

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HOLMES: Hello, everyone. I'm Michael Holmes coming to you live from Lviv in Ukraine where it is about 10.30 in the morning.

Outrage growing over Moscow's decision to order troops into two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine that the Russian president declared independent states. Vladimir Putin says that he is sending in peacekeepers which the U.S. envoy to the U.N. calls nonsense.

It is unclear if any Russian forces have officially crossed the border yet but they will. A Russian television network did air video of the military convoy moving through the streets of Donetsk.

[03:30:04]

The U.N. Security Council held an emergency meeting on Monday that got contentious with the U.S. calling Russia's moves a pretext for war. Russia's ambassador insisting his country will now allow a bloodbath in Eastern Ukraine and that it recognizes as separatist regions to protect people living there.

The E.U. is meeting today to discuss sanctions and the U.K. plans to announce its own very soon. The British Prime Minister has been sharing a meeting of Cobra Britain's Emergency Council which convenes to handle major crises.

Joining me here now in Lviv is CNN's international security editor Nick Paton Walsh. Great to have you back, Nick. Let's talk about the sanctions first of all. And I guess it comes down to the semantics of what is an invasion? This was meant to happen when Russian troops crossed into Ukraine. Whether you call them peacekeepers or not these are Russian regulars crossing into Ukraine.

NICK PATON WALSH, CNN CORRESPONDENT (on camera): The problem with sanctions, there is a finite amount you can do. You can't infinitely continually sanction a country. And so I think the choice facing Western officials now is to do small amount to show that you are serious but also recognize that this is not at this stage a full-on invasion and a multipronged defensive that Western officials have been warning about for months?

Or do you say, right. That's it. That's enough and do everything to make sure there is no further aggression. That's a choice they're facing but it is possibly also to the Kremlin's way of trying to widen those (inaudible) between European capitals or Western capitals to see that those who are reluctant to go the full way may their voices heard.

HOLMES (on camera): As you have been reporting too, that the exchanges, the violations all across that line of contact they are daily and they are multiple and so on. Now the Russians are going to be there as quote, unquote, "peacekeepers."

What's the separatists are firing artillery shell after artillery shell at the Ukrainians and the Ukrainians saying, we can't respond because the Russians will see that as a provocation.

PATON WALSH: Yeah, look. I mean, this is one of the downsides frankly of this as an option for Vladimir Putin. And if they genuinely did choose to recognize these republics and put peacekeepers in there. There is a risk Russian troops will come under fire and then subsequently Russia would like most states, frankly, be force into having to respond in some way.

This was a broader question of, is this an escalatory step, is this the first of many steps or is this it? And if it is, then it is certainly a lesser response from Moscow. There's talked of whether or not the borders of these separatist areas are recognized as they are or expanded, it opens the door to significantly more levels of conflict.

But at the same time too, it is also, is (inaudible)? Tet at the same time these areas, and you would be honest of being run by Russia for a while and in separatist militias have not had Russian flags hanging over them so. It's a slight change but also a massive change, if that's not too hard.

HOLMES: No, no, Nick, it actually makes sense. You mentioned, the sort of fluidity of the borders and in fact, you know, the separatists initially claimed much more than what they are in now. I mean, what is the risk of them, you know, fudging going on? And you and I have talked before that the potential for Russia to try to create that land bridge from Russia to Crimea and involve places like strategic city of Mariupol. The risk of fudging?

PATON WALSH: The lines are fairly clear at the moment. So, if there was a bid to try and move out then that would certainly be visible from space, frankly. So that would be another level in the escalation here. It confuses me if there was going to be a larger move by Moscow to take more territory, they will begin with this slow quite technical recognition and then what we may see later on today, the public instruction of troops wearing a Russian flag.

That will be an odd way to necessarily do it. But all of these has frankly been very strange. The most curious part being Vladimir Putin's speech yesterday which was a man who would clearly expect to say, there's been a lot of time to buy himself thinking about this, had a very clear set of opinions. A lot of which didn't seem to necessarily align with everyone else viewed history. And feels for or wants to say that he feel Russia is under imminent threat from NATO which is not obviously the case.

In fact, it is the most concerning part of all of this. Not so much the formal recognition of these two republics, that's something that could have happen to someone they wanted for a while. It is whether or not he is laying out the broader case and then making his smaller step first.

But it's important, Michael to remember that he doesn't function in 24 hour cable news cycle, right? He does tiny things, sits back for a few months, waiting for everyone to off, go right about something else, then does another thing.

And so the broader plan we've been warned about of a massive multipronged invasion did seem a little too not theatrical, but frankly terrifying for someone like Vladimir Putin, who can be an incremental. But we will see. The face of a man we saw yesterday was somebody who clearly is seized with an idea. And an idea is pretty horrifying.

HOLMES: Yeah. It seemed almost angry too, in his tone.

Nick Paton Walsh, great to have you here. Good to see you.

[03:35:03]

Alright, now the stark uptick in tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Well, that's sending fresh concerns among global financial markets. CNN's Kristie Lu Stout, joins me live from Hong Kong to talk about that, Kristie.

KRISTIE LU STOUT, CNN CORRESPONDENT (on camera): Michael, Global shares are following after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his troops to enter this pro-Moscow separatist regions in Eastern Ukraine. And at first, we can bring up the freshest data for you with the European market open and you will see a portrait painted in red.

Let's bring up a picture for you and you will see how European stock markets are performing right now and there you see the FTSE 100, losing almost half of percent. The XETRA DAX down, 1.7 percent. Zurich SMI losing 1.15 percent. Paris CAC 40 down almost 1 percent.

Now, shares here in the Asia-Pacific region, also in the red. The trading day here, this Tuesday is winding down. If we bring up the market picture here, you could see the Nikkei has closed down 1.7 percent. (Inaudible) down one and a third here in Hong Kong. The Hang Seng is losing 2.7 percent. The Shanghai Composite losing 1 percent. I should also add the concerns about more high tech restrictions in China also winning on the markets here in China.

This day, we have from Asia, we had been monitoring U.S. futures of course, and they indicate that there will be a lower open when Wall Street reopens later today. Of course. Monday was the President's Day holiday in the United States. You could see there, DOW future downs 1.23 percent. NASDAQ futures losing 3.4 percent. S&P 500 down almost 2.2 percent.

On Monday, there is a statement released by the White House. We heard that U.S. President Joe Biden plans to impose sanctions on those separatists breakaway regions in Eastern Ukraine. That has helped send the price of crude soaring. All of this is painting a picture of growing volatility and growing uncertainty over the fate and future of Ukraine and beyond.

And for the markets, it's simply is not good news. We had this statement that came into us from the senior market analyst at Oanda. And in a market research note, he writes this. Let's bring it up for you, quote, "It feels like the situation can dramatically escalated at any moment. And that's going to keep investors on edge for now. I mean, we may well be on the brink of something terrible happening and that is continued defeat into the negativity in the markets," unquote.

We also reached out to the head of Fixed Income Research at Westpac and Damien McColough gave us the following. He said this, quote, "I do think it is as much as short squeeze as a fight to quality. Today's move is clearly an escalation, which suggest that the current risk rewards will favor lower long and yields. Sure enough the ongoing crisis and the uncertainty in Ukraine has driven up the price and gold, driven up the price of treasury bonds as investors scramble to find some sort of safe haven out there. Michael, over to you.

HOLMES: Alright, Kristie, thanks. Kristie Lu Stout there in Hong Kong. And much more from Ukraine coming up. But first let's take it back to Rosemary Church in Atlanta. Rosemary?

ROSEMARY CHURCH, CNN ANCHOR (on camera): Alright, thanks so much Michael. Hearings are now underway at The Hague from an alleged genocide in 2017. What the court is deciding about Myanmar's military crackdown on Rohingya Muslims. A live report from The Hague is next.

[03:40:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CHURCH: Welcome back everyone. Well, hearings are now underway at The Hague on alleged genocide in Myanmar. The world court started to hear preliminary arguments, Monday. And the case brought against Myanmar demanding that it hold alleged acts of genocide against the Rohingya Muslim minority.

(Inaudible) acclaims that Myanmar has violated the genocide convention, citing events in 2017 when more than 730,000 Rohingya Muslims fled Myanmar into neighboring Bangladesh after military led crackdown. A U.N. fact finding mission concluded that the military campaign had included genocidal acts.

And joining me now from The Hague is Akila Radhakrishnan, president of the Global Justice Center. Thank you so much for being with us.

AKILA RADHAKRISHNAN, PRESIDENT OF THE GLOBAL JUSTICE CENTER (on camera): Thanks for having me.

CHURCH: So, what exactly is happening in court this week and why is the Junta representing Myanmar instead of the National Unity Government?

RADHAKRISHNAN: So this week, the (inaudible) hearing objections that were filed to jurisdictions actually shortly before the coup by the previous government including the National League for Democracy. And the reason the Junta is in court this week is really a matter of procedure. Where the court communicates with who is accredited to it and with the (inaudible) right now between the National Unity Government the Junta and various U.N. venues, it seems that many of the U.N. agencies are choosing to maintain the status quo from before the coup.

CHURCH: Right. And for the benefit of our viewers who may not know the background of this tragic story, talk to us about what happened in 2017 to the Rohingya people and what their circumstances are now?

RADHAKRISHNAN: Well, in 2017, the Rohingya were subject to a massive wave of violence of murder, of sexual violence, of forced deportation into Bangladesh. Today, over a million Rohingya live in Bangladesh and just 600,000 remain in Myanmar.

[03:45:04]

And this was built on decades of religious discrimination and oppression of the Rohingya minority including the denial of their ability to have citizenship in the country. And so today you have a million people who can't return, and 600,000 people who live under increasing threat with the Junta, now back in power. Those who committed the acts of violence against them in the first place.

CHURCH: And the United Nations is calling it genocide, but the international community has done nothing to help the Rohingya people, and the world court verdict could take months. So what real impact will a ruling against the Junta have, and what more should the world be doing to bring justice to the Rohingya people?

RADHAKRISHNAN: Sure. So unfortunately a ruling is probably years down the line. But really just, you know, jurisdictional and admissibility issues which means that, that maybe months down the line. I think what the court case did when it was filed in 2019 is that brought the attention to what happened to the (inaudible) was brought by the country of Gambia that's not even connected to the issue to say that genocide is something that's a matter of everybody in the international community.

So, I think the filing of the case itself was a recognition of the fight of the Rohingya. And when you talk about something like genocide that you know, at the core of it is actually the denial of the distance of the community, and attempt to destroy them, the recognition itself is a really important component.

I think there is so much more of the international community needs to do right now not just for the Rohingya but for the entire population of Myanmar. We have seen continued Security Council failure to act on the coup. We have seen, you know, statements of concerns that calls for actions, concrete actions in the global arms embargo have been completely ignored by the international community and could really help change the situation in Myanmar.

CHURCH: Such an important point. Akila Radhakrishnan, thank you so much for joining us. I appreciate it.

RADHAKRISHNAN: Thank you so much.

CHURCH: And coming up, escalating tensions are heightening fears of a Russian invasion in Ukraine. And it is impacting the country's economy. We'll hear from local business operators just ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[03:50:00]

HOLMES (on camera): Welcome back. An invasion by Russian forces could have devastating effects on Ukraine's economy, clearly. Well, some both small business operators told me the escalating tensions are already having an impact.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

HOLMES (voice over): Lida Koniukh, manages a small clothing and souvenir business in central Lviv. Trying to ignore the drumbeat of possible war echoing around her country.

LIDA KONIUKH, STORE MANAGER (through translator): The situation was a lot better after the New Year, but now you can feel the difference. Less tourists means less business.

HOLMES: Small business operators like Koniukh say these are tough times. No tourists and locals are hunkering down. First with COVID lockdowns, now it is the threat of war keeping the cash register quiet.

KONIUKH (through translator): We do not know what will happen. No one know it. The situation is difficult for sure. But if you ask what to do if it gets worse, then my answer is, I don't know. The only thing I know for sure, I will stay here, no matter what.

HOLMES: Now the pocketbook pain for ordinary Ukrainians is obvious. And nationally it is as well. GDP is down, investors have fled to the sidelines and obviously an invasion would make everything that much worse. But experts say even if Putin's troops stay on the outside, things could be almost as grim as they apply an economic stranglehold on this country.

TYMOFIY MYLOVANOV, PRESIDENT, KYIV SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS: Absolutely, because the war is not just, you know, again, a kinetic or physical action. It is also economic. It is cyber. It is diplomatic. And in all be, the businesses are suffering now and divert resources from development, from business investments into protecting operations. And so, if it continues, there will be harassment, there will be damage. And so that's a part of pressure.

UNKNOWN: Not so many customers, because --

HOLMES: Daria Borysenko manages a popular burger joint in Lviv. People are still coming in but she is worried about what might come.

Are you worried about how an invasion might affect business?

DARIA BORYSENKO, STORE MANAGER: Yes. It's really hard, because it is more psychology situation. Not only about foot, not only about smiles, it is -- I'm really nervous.

HOLMES: Still like virtually all Ukrainians we meet, she is both stoic and confident in her country.

Are you worried about the war?

BORYSENKO: Many of us, yes. But we are staying calm, because we understand. If we will nervous and have different panic addict, it will be not so good for us.

HOLMES: Like most Ukrainians, nervous but unafraid.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

[03:55:09]

HOLMES (on camera): Thanks for watching everyone. I'm Michael Holmes live in Lviv, Ukraine. We will have much more of our breaking news coverage after the break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HOLMES: Hello and welcome to our viewers joining us in the United States and all around the world. I'm Michael Holmes in Lviv, Ukraine.

ANNA COREN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (on camera): -- in Hong Kong, just ahead on "CNN Newsroom."

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNKNOWN: We have gotten indication after indication over the past several days that that door to diplomacy was closing and closing.

[04:00:00]