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New U.S. Warning To Ukraine: Full-Scale Russian Invasion Imminent; Lt. Gov. Jeff Duncan (R-GA) Discusses U.S. Invasion Warning To Ukraine, Trump Praising "Genius" Putin, Trump GOP Critics Create Alternative To CPAC; Biden Issues New Sanctions On Nord Stream 2's Builder; Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) Discusses The Russian/Ukraine Crisis & Lawmakers Urging Biden To Ask Congress Before Sending Troops to Ukraine. Aired 2:30-3p ET

Aired February 23, 2022 - 14:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[14:30:00]

BARBARA STARR, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: And the Pentagon will have some military decisions to make.

They are still flying manned reconnaissance flights over Ukraine, planes with pilots in the cockpit.

And if we are on the cusp of Russian military action, including the possibility of missiles being fired, they will stop those flights very fast and make sure there are no U.S. pilots in danger -- Victor, Alisyn?

ALISYN CAMEROTA, CNN HOST: Barbara Starr, thank you very much for all of that reporting.

With us now to discuss, we have CNN international diplomatic editor, Nic Robertson, live in Moscow.

Retired Major General Paul Eaton, a senior adviser at VoteVets.

And Evelyn Farkas. She served as deputy assistant secretary of defense for Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia in the Obama administration.

General, I want to start with you.

Because as Barbara just reported, they believe they're as ready as they can be. There's this new intel warning to Ukraine that a large- scale invasion could be imminent.

Is that because of the satellite images we just saw of expanding field hospitals and equipment? What else could they be seeing that makes them think this is happening soon?

MAJ. GEN. PAUL EATON, U.S. ARMY, RETIRED & SENIOR ADVISOR, VOTEVETS: Frist, it's great to be with you.

But we're watching the deployment of logistics as well. And that is the real indicator. Everybody can be a tactician, but professionals are logisticians. So we're watching that. We have to realize that the Russian army has

gone to school on how they conduct warfare.

High intensity, combined-force warfare a very sophisticated, integrated function, and they have, they have been students of how we conduct war.

VICTOR BLACKWELL, CNN HOST: Nic, we have heard -- and Erin reported this earlier -- that a senior defense official says, last week, Lloyd Austin said Russian troops were uncoiling and now, quote, "Today, they are, uncoiled."

We've learned from the Russian foreign minister a bit of an indication of, once they come into, across the line there in Ukraine, how they will arrive.

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMATIC EDITOR: Yes, they'll arrive packing a punch. That was the message from the Russian ambassador at the United Nations just a little while ago.

He said the Russian forces are going to go in as ceasefire monitors into those separatist areas in the east of Ukraine. He said but don't expect anyone to go in softly, softly with the violators.

Now, normally, when we think about, you know, what ceasefire monitors do, they generally sit there and count the number of shells going one way, the number going the other way.

Figure out who's firing, when they're firing. And go back to both sides to try to get a de-escalation of the situation.

But the Russian ambassador gave out this information. And he started -- this address in the U.N. Security Council was, you know, we warn you that.

This was a declaration. This is a Russian warning to you all.

He was saying that the U.N. needs to reign in what he calls the authorities in Kyiv.

But the reality of what he's saying in the current environment, where Russia appears to be trying or Russian -- pro-Russian separatists appear to be trying to provoke a reaction from Ukrainian forces on the other side of the frontline and, at the same time, claiming provocations by the Ukrainian forces.

The Russian so-called, as he called them, ceasefire monitors appear to be going in to join the battle rather than observe it.

It appears to be a worrying development, particularly in the context it was delivered. This points to an escalation, not a de-escalation at this time.

CAMEROTA: Evelyn, I want to ask you about Vladimir Putin's mindset, which everyone is trying to crack. It's very hard to get into his head. However, Kremlin observers have noticed a shift. Nic was touching on

it yesterday for us. That he seems more erratic, angrier, less strategic.

Here's how "The Wall Street Journal" phrased it:

"Mr. Macron noticed a change in Mr. Putin's demeanor when speaking with him on the phone over the course of the pandemic. 'He tended to talk in circles, rewriting history', a close aide to Macron said."

"That impression hardened when Mr. Macron traveled to Moscow two weeks ago as part of a diplomatic push to avert an invasion."

"According to French officials, Mr. Macron found that Putin was more rigid, more isolated, and had basically gone into a sort of ideological and security minded drift."

You had to deal with Putin during the Obama administration. Has something shifted? Is he less open to sort of rational diplomacy?

EVELYN FARKAS, FORMER DEPUTY ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF DEFENSE FOR RUSSIA, UKRAINE AND EURASIA: Yes, Alisyn, I read that article, also. And it's really alarming because it speaks certainly to his mental state. And maybe raises questions about his physical state.

But certainly, if he does not have people around him informing him, giving him, you know, the red-team look, which is to say how it could go badly, then he's not taking those things into consideration.

[14:35:04]

And Vladimir Putin has always been a risk taker. We were incredibly shocked and surprised when he went in and seized Crimea in 2014 and annexed it illegally and then started the other war in Donbass.

But we always understood his risk taking had its limits. And he always used economy of force.

What he's doing right now does not represent any kind of economy of force. Practically, the entire Russian military is on the borders of Ukraine. And it's highly risky.

So I do wonder whether people can speak to him around him. Whether he listens to anyone. Because there's a lot of power concentrated in that presidency.

BLACKWELL: General, to you.

In addition to the warning from U.S. officials to Ukrainians that a full-scale Russian invasion is imminent, there was specific emphasis placed on the city of Kharkiv.

Can you explain the strategic value if Russians were to focus on that northern Ukrainian city?

EATON: We watched a penetration on the east -- pardon me, on the northwest, and it's a -- do we have a demonstration going on in the east? That's a question mark.

The fact it's a large population center, the fact it's an industrial focal point, the fact that it's relatively close to the border, all this makes the seizing of the city a relatively -- a relatively easy military event.

And again, once done, could be a pause before the Russian army embarks upon a further penetration into the country.

BLACKWELL: Major General Paul Eaton, Evelyn Farkas and Nic Robertson, thank you.

Former President Trump is now weighing in on the Russia/Ukraine crisis. He says that Vladimir Putin is a genius. How his fellow Republicans are reacting.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[14:41:48]

CAMEROTA: The U.S. and its allies are trying to prevent Russia from starting a war that would kill an untold number of civilians.

But former President Donald Trump thinks Vladimir Putin's actions are, quote, "genius."

In a radio interview Tuesday, Trump reacted to Russian President Vladimir Putin's illegal declaration that parts of Ukraine are independent.

(BEGIN AUDIO FEED)

DONALD TRUMP, FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I said this is genius. Putin declares a big portion of the Ukraine -- of Ukraine, Putin declares it as independent.

Oh, that's wonderful. So Putin is now saying it's independent. A large section of Ukraine. I said, how smart is that?

(END AUDIO FEED)

CAMEROTA: Joining us now is Georgia's Republican lieutenant governor, Jeff Duncan.

Lieutenant Governor, great to see you as always.

So former President Trump thinks that Putin's aggression against Ukraine's democracy is wonderful, is genius, is smart.

What's your response to that?

LT. GOV. JEFF DUNCAN (R-GA): I think it's important for every American to understand how serious this situation is over there between Russia and Ukraine.

And Vladimir Putin has gone to the bookshelf and pulled off the old play book for the USSR and he is trying to go back to chapter one, which is trying to conquer Ukraine.

And, look, any comments made by a former president or any American, for that matter, that strokes the ego of Putin is a mistake. It's a step in the wrong direction.

We're about ready to watch maybe the largest ground invasion since World War II play out in front of us.

Certainly, I don't think we should call Vladimir Putin anything other than a selfish, brutal dictator.

CAMEROTA: I mean, this isn't the first time we've seen former President Trump be wildly obsequious to Vladimir Putin.

But this is different. There is a war that is brewing. We're told it's imminent.

And the idea that he is offering up these opinions in such a volatile situation, is this dangerous?

DUNCAN: Well, certainly it's not helpful. We've got to do everything we can possibly do to avoid this conflict over there if there's a means to do it.

With sanctions and looking for the right levers to pull to put pressure, global pressure on Vladimir Putin to back away from this aggressive overreach.

And it's certainly a serious issue we've got to face.

CAMEROTA: Do you worry that President Trump's words could be used as Russian propaganda?

DUNCAN: Well, certainly. I think there's reports of his words and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's words being played on the Russian media, that's not helpful. He doesn't help us move in the right direction.

Vladimir Putin is a propaganda artist and he's playing it out to the nth degree.

We've seen this play out for decades in the past. As a kid growing up, I watched this play out. And certainly, it's some scary times.

CAMEROTA: This weekend, you'll be in D.C. and you are speaking at this summit called the Principles First Summit. It's being billed as counterprogramming to the very Trump-centric CPAC.

How will this be different?

DUNCAN: I see it as a great opportunity to continue the conversation with America and with Republicans specifically about a better pathway forward, a new direction that focuses on the future and not the past.

I think it's a huge mistake for folks on both sides of the issue the previous election to keep talking about it. [14:45:03]

I want to see Republicans lay a broad set of ideas out there that solve real problems for real Americans.

CAMEROTA: You're going to be with a group of other Republicans, conservatives, who are not fans of former President Trump and what he's doing in terms of dwelling in all these lies about the 2020 election.

And so do you -- will you all be talking about trying to find a candidate who, if President Trump runs, could -- Republican candidate who could compete against him in the primary?

DUNCAN: Well, I think America is in that process right now.

I think Republicans, as a whole, are starting to move in the direction of appreciating Donald Trump's four years of conservative leadership. But his day is passed and it's time to move on.

We need to see a new generation of leaders step up that are able to tackle issues and cast a vision. Not only for the folks on the right but the folks in the middle.

They can come on board and watch this nation once again regain the prominence that we've seen in years past.

Right now, even the folks who voted for Joe Biden I think disagree with the direction that we're taking domestically, with crime, with national security.

With just the notion of Afghanistan and what that message that sent months ago to the rest of the world as to how weak-kneed we were in foreign countries.

CAMEROTA: But what makes you think people are moving in a different direction away from President Trump? He has a huge war chest. He continues to fundraise daily.

DUNCAN: Look, Americans are moving on. I think Republicans are moving on. Because our problems are that bad. And it takes, I believe, bold leadership to step up.

And, Alisyn, what really inspires me are the conversations. A year ago at this time, it was 10-1 folks telling me I was crazy for trying to move on.

And now it's 10-1 with folks complimenting and telling me, way to go, let's pick up the mantle and start running with it.

CAMEROTA: Georgia's lieutenant governor, Jeff Duncan, always great to talk to you. Thanks.

DUNCAN: Thanks, Alisyn.

BLACKWELL: President Biden has been very clear that U.S. troops will not be fighting in Ukraine.

But a group of bipartisan lawmakers sent him a letter urging the president to get congressional approval before any troop deployment if he changes his mind. We'll discuss with a lawmaker ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[14:51:56]

BLACKWELL: President Biden says the U.S. will now implement sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Its parent company is the Russian company, Gazprom.

With me now is Edward Fishman. He was in charge of Russia and Europe at the State Department's Office of Economic Sanctions Policy and Implementation during the Obama administration.

Edward, good to have you with us.

EDWARD FISHMAN, FORMER ADVISOR ON RUSSIA AND EUROPE, OFFICE OF ECONOMIC SANCTIONS POLICY AND IMPLEMENTATION, U.S. STATE DEPARTMENT: Thanks, Victor.

BLACKWELL: So you have called this first tranche of sanctions, you called them "a shot across the bow" and "a modest first step."

Considering what we see at the border, is this a time for a modest first step if the goal is deterrence?

FISHMAN: Look, Victor, I think the Biden administration has signaled clearly this is just the beginning of the sanctions that roll out in the days to come.

If the Biden administration is correct and Russia plans to launch a full-scale war in the coming days, I suspect that the sanctions we saw yesterday and today will be the tip of a very, very large iceberg.

The VEB is the fifth-largest financial institution in Russia who was sanctioned yesterday.

That's the first time that the U.S. has ever imposed its strongest sanction, which is the full-blocking sanction, against a major state- owned Russian financial institution.

But again, it's the fifth-largest institution in Russia.

My interpretation of yesterday's action is that if Russia continues to escalate, all of the largest Russian financial institutions could become under U.S. sanctions in the days and weeks to come.

BLACKWELL: So the Ukrainian foreign minister says the fifth-largest is not good enough, especially at this moment.

He tweeted this:

"To stop Putin from further aggression, we call on partners to impose more sanctions on Russia now. First decisive steps were taken yesterday and we're grateful for them."

"Now the pressure needs to step up to stop Putin. Hit his economy and his cronies. Hit more, hit hard, hit now."

Why start with the fifth-largest financial institution? Why not a larger institution, like SpareBank?

FISHMAN: It's a great question. I think what we saw yesterday was remarkable unity between U.S. and Europe.

I think in the preceding weeks, before yesterday's action, if you had told me that the European Union would impose an asset freeze on VEB, I would have been very surprised.

So what we saw yesterday was the U.S. and European Union taking virtually identical steps. And I and that message to Putin is that the U.S. and Europe stand together and they won't be divided.

However, I do think in the days to come we start seeing some divergence in the specifics of what the U.S. and Europe do.

And I'm very confident that the U.S. government, unilaterally, at the stroke of a pen, could impose pretty substantial sanctions on SpareBank, VTB, another large Russian financial institution.

I think it will be dictated by the actions on the ground. If you see Russia make a play for a deeper invasion into Ukraine, I have no doubt that the Biden administration is ready to impose sanctions on SpareBank and VTB.

BLACKWELL: You mentioned the unity that we saw with Europe and throughout the West. Are these the best sanctions that could be agreed upon? Are these the sanctions that meet the moment?

FISHMAN: That's a great question. I think there's always going to be some divergence, some daylight between the U.S. and Europe.

[14:55:03]

The European Union is an organization of 27 states. Every single one of those member states has a veto over what happens with sanctions.

So I think it's a bit inevitable that the U.S. is going to be out front of Europe.

My sense is that yesterday's package was what the U.S. and Europe believed they could agree to together based on what had happened at that time.

Which was the recognition of the DNR and LNR by the Russian government as independent states, as well as an initial invasion of eastern Ukraine.

If we start seeing a larger invasion, I don't think that the Biden administration is going to worry about what the E.U. is going to do.

The key will be keeping the European Union on board. And I suspect they will be.

BLACKWELL: Edward, you were in the State Department during the Obama administration. Of course, sanctions were imposed after Putin annexed Crimea.

If those sanctions had been stronger, would we be here today?

FISHMAN: I think it's a good question. I fear that perhaps we should've been stronger in 2014.

The reasons that we weren't stronger in 2014, though, are manyfold. As you heard a previous analyst say a second earlier, we were surprised by the Crimea annexation. We didn't expect that to happen.

Also, when we imposed sanctions on Russia in 2014, for the preceding 25 years, the thrust of U.S. strategy toward Russia, from Gorbachev onward, were to integrate Russia into the global economy.

So this was a major sea change in U.S. policy toward Russia in 2014.

Even though the sanctions in 2014 were relatively modest, they sent the Russian economy for a tailspin. The ruble collapsed. The Russian economy went into recession.

BLACKWELL: Yes.

FISHMAN: Just think, those are sanctions that were relatively modest.

If SpareBank is added to the list, I expect a significant financial crisis in Russia in the weeks ahead.

BLACKWELL: Yes. And the Ukrainians are asking, why isn't that happening now, as the U.S. says Russian invasion is imminent.

Edward Fishman, thank you.

CAMEROTA: OK, now to this. Yesterday, a bipartisan group of lawmakers sent a letter to President Biden requesting that he seek congressional authorization before sending U.S. troops to Ukraine.

BLACKWELL: But they acknowledged that President Biden said sending troops is not on the table but noted the evolving situation could cause that decision to change.

Arizona Congresswoman Ruben Gallego joins us now. He's a member of the House Foreign Services Committee and a Marine Corps veteran.

He was also part of a congressional delegation led by Speaker Pelosi to travel to the Munich Security Conference last week.

Congressman, good to see you again.

I've got the letter here. You did not sign this letter. I want to point that out, you're not one of the 43.

REP. RUBEN GALLEGO (D-AZ): No. BLACKWELL: But it says that if the ongoing situation compels you to introduce our military into Ukraine. The president's been clear.

Do you expect that could change depending on what we see potentially if Russia crosses the border?

GALLEGO: I really don't see it happening, to be honest, in terms of the defense of Ukraine.

I certainly think that's something that could happen for our treaty obligations to NATO and other countries that we have obligations to, but not Ukraine in itself.

I think we've been very clear and the American public has been very clear that we don't want to involve ourselves using our troops for something like that.

CAMEROTA: Congressman, you tweeted about the sanctions yesterday.

You said, "Putin must experience swift and serious consequences for his actions, including crippling sanctions against Russia, its banks, and its leaders. And the president's actions today will do just that."

But are they really crippling? We heard from many experts, including the guest on right before you, who said that it was a modest first step.

How do you see the sanctions as crippling?

GALLEGO: Certainly, I think it's going to have a crippling effect on the Russian economy. You can tell it is teetering on the brink of a slide largely because they know there's more coming.

It also shows we're going to have a united front when it comes to sanctions.

The one thing that Russia has exploited until the past, especially when we have not been as strong with Russia, was to basically split our alliances and not having strong sanctions that really have an impact.

So the fact that, yes, they seem modest, but the fact they're unified and strong, and it's having an effect on the Russian economy is what makes it crippling.

BLACKWELL: Let's talk about how long the unity holds. You were just there with European allies. Our last guest, Edward Fishman, said the U.S. is going to be out front on issues like this.

How long do you think that consensus holds as potentially more sanctions are suggested at least by the U.S. in the coming days?

[14:59:47]

GALLEGO: Look, I can't predict that. I think that's why the Biden administration is moving at the pace that they are to move -- when they move, not too much in front of our allies, to make sure we're all unified in our sanctions.

But I think it's important for us to last as long as possible. Russia's plan is to outlast this issue, hoping that we ignore it or move on.