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Ukrainian Forces Repel Russian Advance in Kharkiv; Putin Puts Russia's Nuclear Deterrence Forces on Alert; At Least 368K People Have Fled Ukraine; Nearly 6,000 Detained Amid Anti-War Protests in Russia. Aired 12-1a ET

Aired February 28, 2022 - 00:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

ANNOUNCER: This is CNN breaking news.

[00:00:21]

MICHAEL HOLMES, CNN INTERNATIONAL ANCHOR: And welcome to our viewers joining us from all around the world; and coming to you live from Ukraine, I'm Michael Holmes. Our breaking news continues this hour.

Ukrainian and Russian delegations will meet for talks in the coming hours, even as bitter fighting continues in parts of this country. The delegations will meet near Ukraine's border with Belarus, which of course, is a key Russian ally.

Ukraine's president, though, appearing to have little hope the conflict will be resolved there.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

VOLODYMYR ZELENSKY, UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT (through translator): Alexander Lukashenko asked for the Ukrainian Russian delegations to meet on the Pripyat River -- and I emphasize this -- without any conditions. I will say this frankly. As always, I don't really believe in the result of this meeting. But, let them try.

So, then later on, no citizen of Ukraine would have any doubt that I, the president, did not try to stop the war when I had a chance. Small as it was.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: Now, so far, Ukrainian forces have managed to defend the capital, Kyiv, despite being, of course, outgunned and outmanned. Now, I've got some video to show you from Ukraine's armed forces showing a drone attack on Russian forces outside Kyiv.

But Russian forces continue to press forward. There's new satellite images that show a Russian military convoy stretching more than four kilometers on a roadway that leads to Kyiv.

To the south, Russian forces have now taken control of a town on Ukraine's coast that is home to a new naval base. That's according to the town's mayor. Meanwhile, the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, only seems to be

escalating the crisis, on Sunday, putting Russia's deterrence forces -- that includes nuclear arms -- on high alert.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

VLADIMIR PUTIN, RUSSIAN PRESIDENT (through translator): Top officials in leading NATO countries have allowed themselves to make aggressive comments about our country. Therefore, I hereby order the minister of defense and the chief of the general staff to place the Russian army deterrence force on combat alert.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: But, he is facing pushback from the Russian people. Nearly 6,000 people have been detained so far in Russia, as anti-war protests continue across the country.

Moscow also facing condemnation from many global leaders and increasingly severe sanctions from the West and its allies. And the E.U. and others are ramping up support for Ukraine, pledging more weapons and military gear.

Meanwhile, the U.S. says more than 4,000 U.S. army troops deployed to Europe have had their tours of duty extended.

However, the Biden administration has made it very clear that the U.S. will not put boots on the ground in Ukraine. We have seen intense fighting on the streets of Ukraine's second largest city, Kharkiv, but video also shows how Ukrainian forces were able to repel a Russian advance.

CNN's Alex Marquardt with details.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ALEX MARQUARDT, CNN SENIOR NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT (voice- over): A Russian unit moves cautiously through the outskirts of Kharkiv. Their goal, to seize a nearby military airfield and factory. Their slow progress makes them an inviting target for Ukrainian defenders hiding nearby.

Suddenly, an ambush. The Russians fall back, their soldiers trying to shelter behind their Humvee-type vehicles. Their chaotic retreat, seen here from another angle, one more example of the stiff resistance the Russians are encountering from mobile Ukrainian units who know the lay of the land.

But the Russians can't escape. They run into further trouble, apparently surrounded. At least one of their trucks is disabled. A resident telling a Reuters journalist one of the Russians was killed in the fire fight.

YEVGENIY, KHARKIV, UKRAINE RESIDENT (through translator): After we heal this, one the others went away. There were some, 12 to 15 people. That's it. We will win. They won't take Kharkiv. They have run back to where they came from.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Go back to Russia.

MARQUARDT: Ukrainian soldiers surround the abandoned vehicles, celebrating a small victory, and a conflict where they should have no chance of holding off the enemy. Off-camera, one of them says --

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Go back to Moscow (ph).

MARQUARDT: And that's how we meet the Russian army.

But this Ukrainian platoon's day is not over. The enemy is still in the area. They dash forward to fire off RPGs. A ragtag army that, for now, is holding off a far superior force.

But for civilians here, the Russian offensive Is terrifying. This apartment block in Kharkiv hit by artillery fire on Saturday night. Thankfully, most of the residents are sheltering in the basement. Authorities say one woman was killed.

Alexander Dotsenko (ph) says all the apartments are damaged. It's very bad. Even as Ukraine resists, its people are still suffering.

Alex Marquardt, CNN, Kyiv.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HOLMES: Now, the international community, meanwhile, stepping up its response to the Russian invasion. The European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, believes Ukraine belongs in the European Union, saying, quote, "They're one of us."

Meanwhile, in a significant reversal of defense policy, Germany's chancellor announcing a hike in defense spending to more than 2 percent of Germany's economic outlook.

Berlin will also spend $112 billion to reequip its armed forces, and the U.N. Security Council voting to send the Ukraine issue to the General Assembly, for a special emergency session. That will be coming up a little later.

Meanwhile, the U.S. says Vladimir Putin is using, quote, "dangerous rhetoric" by putting Russian's nuclear deterrent on high alert.

With more on the U.S. response, CNN White House reporter Jasmine Wright joins me now from Washington. What are you hearing, Jasmine?

JASMINE WRIGHT, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, Michael, in a lot of ways, the White House is trying to de-escalate. Instead of matching Putin's heightened rhetoric here, they're taking a step back and saying, Look, this matches President Putin's history of a wide pattern of using unprovoked escalation and manufactured threats.

White House press secretary Jen Psaki summed up the administration's position pretty well here in an interview Sunday morning, take a listen. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JEN PSAKI, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: This is really a pattern that we've seen from President Putin through the course of this conflict, which is manufacturing threats that don't exist in order to justify further aggression. And the global community and the American people should look at it through that prism.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WRIGHT: Psaki added in that quote that the U.S. has the ability to defend itself, but it also should focus on calling out what they view as President Putin's playbook.

And now, this comes out as Putin really has seen a unified west in western allies in both its condemnation of Russia, because of their continued aggression but also intensified waves of sanctions that U.S. officials say have been put in place as proportional to Russia's continued aggression.

And while U.S. officials are still trying to figure out, Michael, the credible, the tangible effect, really, of what this new order from Putin has, taking it very seriously, I might add, they declined to update the U.S.'s current nuclear alert level. Instead, saying that the U.S. is ready to defend itself, protect the country, and also protect its allies.

But one thing I do want to flag is that a senior defense official said today that any miscalculation here could make things much, much worse. So Michael, no doubt, this will be a topic of discussion tomorrow when President Biden calls allies and partners from the White House in the Situation Room when he returns from his weekend in Delaware -- Michael.

HOLMES: All right, Jasmine, appreciate the update. Jasmine Wright there in Washington for us.

Now, Max Seddon is the Moscow bureau chief for "The Financial Times." He joins me now from Moscow.

Good to see you again. Let's start with this. It's quite something for Putin to put nuclear deterrent forces on alert. Why do the, and what does it suggest about a state of mind to do it? Does it smack of desperation?

MAX SEDDON, MOSCOW BUREAU CHIEF, "THE FINANCIAL TIMES": I -- I think it's less desperation than this is, you know, what he has up his sleeve to respond to the escalatory spiral that we are now in. It's his response to -- to the Western response to his war on Ukraine.

And you remember, Russia has the world's largest nuclear arsenal. It's an obvious card to play. We've been here before. He -- he threatened to use them against Western countries who -- who meddled against Russia's war in Ukraine.

And then in 2015, he was talking about the annexation of Crimea the year before, and he said that he gave a similar order to Russian nuclear forces in case everything went wrong with the annexation and the West, in his mind, somehow tried to stop Russia seizing Crimea from Ukraine.

So this is very much in -- in pattern with his style of making threats and with Russia's nuclear doctrine.

HOLMES: Right. So a lot at stake, of course, with these talks today. President Zelensky doesn't sound too confident that, if it does achieve anything, I suppose it boils down to who's prepared to give what. What's your read on these talks?

[00:10:05]

SEDDON: I think it's more that are -- the Russians prepared to give anything, because Ukraine have been really consistent in saying that they don't think that Russia is taking this seriously.

Russia's demands pretty much amount to the total capitulation of Ukraine and the surrender of its sovereignty. They -- they sent negotiations to Belarus for talks before Ukraine had even accepted negotiations.

The delegation is led by the former culture minister, Vladimir Medinsky, who's not really seen as any kind of figure with serious influence. And he's also one of the major nationalists, historical revisionists in Russian government circles that includes this aggressive line on Ukraine that -- that Russia has taken in recent years.

So, I think it really -- it's on Russia at this point to show Ukraine that it's prepared to negotiate in good faith. Because Putin said the other day that we are open to dialogue, but our, quote, "interests" are nonnegotiable.

And what that seems to mean is we're ready for talks but only if you do everything we want, and we don't make any concessions. And that's not going to work.

HOLMES: Yes, which is not a great sign.

A lot is being done by Russian authorities to stop criticism at home, even -- even banning media outlets from using the word "invasion" and so on. And I read what you tweeted about wartime repression, what links are being taken to keep a lid on criticism, and what does the tough action on that suggest on the home front?

SEDDON: I think, honestly, we -- we are early in the beginning of seeing what the Russian government can do. And I think it can get much worse.

Someone I know was detained the day for -- for refusing to take down a Ukrainian flag and "No War" sign that he put up in -- in his window.

But the Russian prosecutors have made some very menacing and verry vague statements, saying that support for foreign governments and organizations that threatens Russian security will be considered treason. And that means 20 years in -- in prison.

We've already seen thousands of people arrested at these small but, I think, pretty significant anti-war protests. We've seen a few members of parliament who voted to recognize the separatists in Eastern Ukraine, which is what everyone was told was going to happen right from (UNINTELLIGIBLE), saying that they were tricked.

We saw a Russian climate delegate even apologize yesterday for Russia's conduct in the war of Ukraine. And I don't think that's going to get Russia to back down, certainly, domestically. I think they -- they see this increasingly as a threat to the survival of -- of the regime, which they -- they think is the same as the survival of Russia as a country.

And they're going to act accordingly to -- to protect that. So I think we are only seeing the beginning of what Russia's prepared to do to -- to keep everyone in line.

HOLMES: Yes. I'm curious. You know, how isolated do you think -- well, Russia, but also Putin, is now? I mean, even his close friend, President Xi of China, hasn't criticized the invasion, but he hasn't offered support either.

Is Putin feeling isolated, do you think? What do you -- what's your take on that?

SEDDON: I think -- I think forget about countries that Putin is isolated from. We've seen very clearly this week that Putin is isolated from his own officials.

We're talking about the order for -- for the nuclear alert. When he gave this order yesterday in the Kremlin, he was sitting with his two top military officials, the defense minister and the chief of the general staff. And they weren't allowed to get within 15 feet of them. They were sat at the other end of one of these comically huge tables that Putin makes people sit at in the Kremlin, which is seen to be some sort of COVID social distancing precaution.

And I think, you know, some foreign leaders who have met Putin in recent months, such as Macron of France and Scholz in Germany, their aides have told people since those meetings that they've just been really stunned by how isolated he seems to be.

And when -- when you are as powerful as he is and as isolated as he is, the people who you do see, the last thing that they're going to do is tell you no, because the way that he summons these officials, sitting at these huge distances from him around these -- these ludicrous tables, they -- a lot of them looked visibly uncomfortable. Like, they think that he's some sort of James Bond villain, and if they say the wrong thing, he's going to feed them to the sharks.

So I think he's very much increasingly in a world of his own creation at this point.

HOLMES: Yes, that -- that's fascinating analysis. And to that point, I think, you know, we saw what happened in Grozny. We saw what happened in Syria. I mean, some are saying that Putin is, in some ways, showing restraint at the moment, militarily.

But do you think there is a sense that this is not going to plan? That the resistance is way more than anticipated, under the fears that he can up the ante in terms of how aggressive the campaign is?

[00:15:03]

SEDDON: I think, absolutely, the state news wire, RIA Novosti, published an article on Saturday that looked like it had been written in advance and published by the state, because it was written as if Russia had already won the war in Ukraine in just a few days. And it said that Putin had decided to solve the Ukrainian question once and for all. And that Ukraine would be reorganized and divided into some sort of new arrangement.

But they took this article down, but it's up on the Internet archive. You can still find copies of it. And that gives you the impression that they thought this was going to be some walk in the park.

Yet, that means that what happens now is very dangerous, because Putin is not someone who has a history of backing down. And it's very hard to see where the off-ramps are, giving these unprecedently tough sanctions that the West has introduced.

And so it's possible that the talks that we mentioned if they fail, Russia can always use those to say that Ukraine is taking the talk seriously, and so, it will have to intensify its assault.

You have Ramzan Kadyrov, the leader of Chechnya, one of Putin's most feared henchmen, saying -- saying that they should intensify their assault. And that means, you know, what they did in Chechnya during the separatist wars there were they essentially reduced them to rubble, to -- speaking of rubble, you have the ruble is already down 30 percent, before trading has even begun in Russia. And the central bank has been pushing back trading today because of these unprecedented new central bank sanctions.

And it doesn't look like, you know, Putin is the kind of guy who's going to, you know, cry uncle, to suddenly give in and give the troops an order to get back.

It's very hard to step back from where he has situated himself. He's made these incredibly aggressive statements about the demilitarization, and de-Nazification of -- of Ukraine. And an obvious path yet for him to declare victory, or for the conflict to be mediated in any really acceptable way.

So I think we're in dangerous territory here.

HOLMES: Yes, yes. Great analysis, as always, Max Seddon. Great to speak with you again in Moscow. Thanks so much.

All right. Now, the humanitarian crisis becoming more dire as Ukrainians try to escape the fighting here. Just ahead, what E.U. leaders are saying about possibly taking in millions of refugees. We'll be right back. (COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[00:21:21]

HOLMES: Welcome back. According to the United Nations, at least 368,000 people have fled Ukraine to neighboring countries now. And there are predictions it could get way worse. Millions more could flee the country in the coming days.

Leaders in the European Union already considering what to do with refugees likely headed to E.U. states.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

YIVA JOHANSSON, EUROPEAN COMMISSIONER FOR HOME AFFAIRS: I'm really impressed of the strong solidarity that E.U. citizens are showing towards the Ukrainians coming.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Do you have any estimations on how many refugees there might be in the future?

JOHANSSON: No, but I do think we need to prepare for millions.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: Now, people fleeing the violence in Ukraine are threatened by more than just bombs and bullets. The journey can be arduous. The freezing temperatures, brutal. It is sub-zero here Celsius, at the moment.

CNN's Arwa Damon is at a border crossing in Poland, as thousands pour across in hopes of reaching safety.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ARWA DAMON, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: You know, it's extraordinary, because every single person who you talk to -- and I think this is important to remember -- has their own, unique, to a certain degree, experience of what it was like for them to have to say goodbye to those who they love as they left him behind.

But it's not just that. We're right now at a reception center. And by the time the vast majority of these families actually get here -- and you have some new arrivals over in this direction -- the vast majority of them would have gone through days on the road.

I'm talking about 36 to 48 hours, walking and waiting out in the cold. The stories we're hearing about these overnights in these freezing temperatures with no food, no water, no bathroom, with little children.

And then, as they get closer to the actually border crossing, from the sheer panic and the emotional agony of it all, it ends up largely being a free-for-all, with people just trying to push through, just to cross over to the other side. Now, once they actually get here, they're met at these various

different makeshift receptions areas that have cropped up either by family members, by friends.

But then you also have this army of volunteers that right now is behind a police line, because there are so many of them. And as these buses pull up, they'll hold up signs advertising locations that people who are arriving can get free rides to, locations where they can stay for free. So, you do have this big sense of community, once you actually hit this side.

But none of that makes their experience any less agonizing. We have met sisters, two sisters who left their father behind. We have met wives, who are now trying to cope with all of the children, who left their husbands behind, some of whom have told their children, Don't worry; Daddy is going to be coming, not knowing if they were lying to their kids, or, maybe, they hope, telling the truth.

You see these parents trying to be so strong, still trying to be heroes for their children, doing all that they can to mask their own fears and everything that they're going through.

And earlier today, I just want to tell the story of one family who we met, because they were actually from Afghanistan. They had fled Afghanistan in May, ended up getting asylum in Ukraine. And now, they had to flee again.

[00:25:07]

And their trauma, their agony, their fear, they know what this is. We've met families from Ukraine who have already been displaced more than once.

A mother who was from the Donbas region that is that area that was under separatist control. She had fled in 2014, only to find herself having to flee again.

What a lot of those coming across the border are telling us, however, is that what's happening on the other side, the difficulty of just getting to safety, that is something that has to be addressed. There has to be more organization there.

Because the temperatures are dropping. We're expecting rain, snow. And waiting outside, the way they've been having to wait up until now, is just going to become incredibly dangerous, as well.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HOLMES: Indeed. That was CNN's Arwa Damon at the Polish-Ukrainian border.

The "feels like" temperature here at the moment is 17 degrees Fahrenheit, well below zero in Celsius. It snowed overnight. Imagine the conditions at those border areas.

Well, the U.S. and European officials, meanwhile, are saying that some of Russia's military equipment is now unusable. We'll have a report from Russia staging ground near the front lines, coming up.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[00:30:10]

HOLMES: Welcome back. I'm Michael Holmes in Lviv in Western Ukraine, where we are tracking the latest developments on Russia's assault on this country.

Now, in the hours ahead, representatives from Ukraine and Russia are expected to hold talks at the Belarus border in an effort to try to stop this war.

The Ukrainian ambassador to the U.S. says President Volodymyr Zelensky will not be part of the delegation. The diplomatic effort coming as the fighting on the ground in Ukraine rages on.

And the European Commission president spoke with Mr. Zelensky about strengthening Ukraine's defense capabilities and announced that, for the first time ever, the E.U. would fund the purchase of arms for a country under attack.

Now, a CNN team witnessed Russian vehicles that have broken down or inoperable. This is near Belgorod, one of the staging areas where Russia launched its invasion from. Just across the border, Ukraine's degrow largest city, Kharkiv, the scene of intense fighting over the last three days.

Now, just a few hours ago, Ukrainian officials heard fresh blasts in that city.

CNN's Fred Pleitgen with the latest now on the fighting. He reports from Belgorod in Russia.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

FREDERIK PLEITGEN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, the Russian military has now said that it has breached a line of defense in the city of Kharkiv in Ukraine, that its forces have not entered the city.

And certainly, saw the images that are just coming out of there indicate that there is some very heavy fighting going on in the streets of Kharkiv.

What we've heard so far from the Ukrainian military, from the Ukrainian government, is that they said that they've inflicted heavy casualties on the Russian military. Not just in Kharkiv, but in other places, as well.

What we saw when we were near the front line and near Belgorod or south of Belgorod in Russia, is that there was a lot of rocket artillery fire going out from Russian forces and also a lot of Russian military vehicles also moving into the area where that frontline in and around Kharkiv would be. Now, the Russians so far have not acknowledged taking any casualties

in this conflict, but today, for the first time, Major General Igor Konashenkov, who's a spokesman for the Russian Ministry of Defense, he came out, and he did acknowledge that Russians had died and have been wounded. Here's what he had to say.

MAJ. GEN. IGOR KONASHENKOV, SPOKESPERSON, RUSSIAN MINISTRY OF DEFENSE (THROUGH TRANSLATOR): Russian serviceman are displaying courage and heroism in fulfilling combat tasks in the special military operation. Unfortunately, there have been deaths and injuries among our comrades, but our losses are considerably lower than the number of nationalists we've destroyed; lower than the losses among the Ukrainian armed forces.

PLEITGEN: Major General Igor Konashenkov from the Russian military there, claiming that the Russian losses were far fewer than the losses on the Ukrainian side.

Another thing that we also saw on the front line is there seem to be quite a few Russian military vehicles on the Russian side that were actually broken down and needed to be towed.

It's really unclear whether or not that's sort of the common attrition that you would have in an operation this size, which -- with obviously, tracked vehicles, for instance, driving on asphalt roads.

And also, some of the trucks that we saw broken down were older, as well. But it certainly was something that did stand out.

A lot of Russian forces still going in and out of that battle zone. And some of the trucks that we saw coming out of the Kharkiv battlefield area.

The drivers of those trucks hung their flak vests into the windows of the bulletproof vests they wear on their bodies. That could be an indication that perhaps they were taking sniper fire or were afraid of sniper fire. But of course, from our vantage point, it was impossible to say that with certainty.

Fred Pleitgen, CNN, Belgorod, Russia.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HOLMES: If Russia prevails in this war and does take over, there is a lot of speculation that Ukraine is not going to lay down and take that. The Ukrainians will rise up. There will be a guerrilla war; there will be an insurgency.

Well, Douglas London is a retired senior operations officer with the CIA. He's also the author of "The Recruiter: Spying and the Lost Art of American Intelligence." He joins me now from McLain, Virginia.

And thanks for doing so.

You are a Russian-speaking former CIA officer. You managed counterinsurgency operations. If Putin overthrows the queen government militarily, how likely do you think do you think it is there would be an insurgency, and how effective might it be?

DOUGLAS LONDON, RETIRED SENIOR OPERATIONS OFFICER, CIA: An insurgency is very likely to occur, based on the preparations that have been ongoing since at least 2015, after the Russians invaded last and annexed Crimea.

It's clear that the U.S. military has openly been providing support, as well as other western nations. But I'm pretty confident that the CIA has also been providing support to its counterparts. So they've had a lot of time to prepare for what they're going to do.

[00:35:04]

HOLMES: Yes, and you pointed this out in a really fascinating piece in "Foreign Affairs" that, as you say, since the invasion of Crimea, the U.S. might well have helped Ukraine plan an insurgency.

But on the flip side, I guess Mr. Putin expects such a thing and has his own counter plan.

How messy could it be, were it to happen?

LONDON: Insurgencies are -- are very messy by design, and they're supposed to inflict casualties. They're supposed to seize the narrative. They're supposed to undermine political support at home.

Dictator or not, Putin still responds to what's going on domestically. One of his greater concerns is the grassroots opposition at home. I think the idea would be to send video of carnage and such like that, that Russians were still connected internationally, despite what he might do to the Internet are going to see.

And the Ukrainians have the advantage of a fairly long border with NATO, with several NATO countries where they can get re-supplied. It's still debatable how far the Russians will push. And if they collapse Kyiv and Kharkiv, would they go to the west and secure that territory? It would be a stretch for them.

Insurgencies take time to build momentum, so I think it wouldn't necessarily be revealed at the outset how effective, but over time, I think it would certainly stop the will and the might of the military, but also start changing opinions back home that he might have to respond to.

HOLMES: You mentioned the borders, and that's interesting. If there were an insurgency, what are the chances that it bleeds across borders, including Putin's own, perhaps?

LONDON: There's certainly the means and the opportunity to do so. I'm certain it's on the shelf as a plan.

I think Belarus might be the first victim of this, because they're right on the border with -- with Poland and Lithuania and Latvia, and they've been a direct allied accomplice in exacting the military attack on Ukraine. So, they might make themselves vulnerable. It might start there. Clearly, there's a lot of Ukrainians in Russia. There's a lot of

American allies across Eastern European, NATO members who have people there. And there are also other allies who have folks who can travel there, or perhaps are resident there with Russian nationality credentials.

So I think there's certainly a possibility that he could face an increased acceleration of challenges that could include in his own homeland.

HOLMES: Do you think Vladimir Putin miscalculated? I mean, miscalculated the world's response, but the performance of the Ukrainian military, as well? And in thinking he could invade, put in his own guy in a few days, and it would all be over? Do you think he miscalculated?

LONDON: I think it's evidence he's miscalculated. I still can only hope that the Ukrainians will be able to maintain their resistance, but I'm pretty confident that Putin didn't expect to have so much trouble.

Not that he may have expected to be greeted as liberators, but I think he would have planned on a bit more support from Russian-speaking Ukrainians, those who he's tried to appeal to, at least particularly, but Ukrainians have really had eight years of just focus on their contempt and hatred for Russia, for the invasion in the east, for the annexation.

And he created a lot of this on his own by his moves eight years ago, which I think have sowed over time the seeds that are maturing in a way that he didn't calculate fully. And he didn't necessarily expect there would be this heart of a battle, and I also would expect he thought he could have preempted the early stages of an insurgency.

We've seen press reporting on these lists of people, individuals, officials, security, personalities who he wanted to assassinate or arrest who he thought might participate and lead an insurgency, but it looks like it's going to be much harder to -- to apply than he would have imagined.

So perhaps he got bad information. Perhaps his isolation over the past two years, the pandemic have impacted his thinking. But I just can't imagine he wouldn't have gone into this without an end game, but it seems his end game isn't working.

HOLMES: Your -- your comments there about his, perhaps, mentality is interesting, and I wanted to ask you about that anyway. A lot of people have said that he's become more isolated during COVID. That he's perhaps lost touch with reality, become paranoid, perhaps.

Your observation of how he's -- he's addressed his people. There's anger in a lot of what he says. Do you think that all of this might have clouded his judgment in a Kremlin where no one dares to say no to him?

LONDON: When a leader insulates himself such that his closest advisors self-censor the information they're going to give him our of fear to his reaction, he's obviously not getting the most accurate and detailed information from which to plan.

[00:40:00]

So I can't judge from here whether it's paranoid, and he's having, you know, such a mental disposition, as it is simply an inaccessibility to good intelligence, to good information and accurate advice.

If he's basing his calculation against what his advisors are going to tell him, and they're going to tell him what he wants to hear, then he's not getting the best information with which to make these decisions.

HOLMES: Yes, it was interesting watching his security council meeting a week or so ago. And they were clearly terrified of him. Interesting optics.

Douglas London, a fascinating aspect of this and how it could potentially unfold. Great to speak with you. Thanks so much.

LONDON: Thanks for having me on the program.

HOLMES: Still to come here on CNN, why thousands of protesters and Russia are facing the tension for speaking out against their country's invasion into Ukraine. We'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HOLMES: And we do have some breaking news to bring you. A Ukrainian government official telling CNN that Ukrainian intelligence indicates Belarusian forces' readiness to maybe participate directly in the invasion of Ukraine. That's the wording there.

Now, this quote, in addition to allowing Russians to use their territory, as well as letting them cross the border into Ukraine. That comes from this official in the Ukrainian government.

[00:45:09]

The intelligence comes as talks, of course, are set, ironically, for Monday between Russia and Ukraine near the Belarusian border. Extraordinary development, if true. We are keeping an eye on that. It's only just coming out. We'll update you as we get more information on that aspect of this story.

Now, Russian authorities, meanwhile, have detained at least 6,000 people for participating in anti-war protests across the country since the invasion of Ukraine began.

CNN's Nic Robertson with more on these demonstrations in Moscow.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMATIC EDITOR: The fourth day now of anti-war protests across Russia, more than 5,000 people arrested so far. And this protest, not just within the war in Ukraine, but about this man right here, Boris Nemtsov. A leading opposition figure, shot and killed seven years ago. Anniversary of his death.

Traditionally, people come and leave flowers, and he was shot dead right here, right outside the Kremlin. There were arrests, but his family felt that the people really responsible were never prosecuted.

But the flowers coming here today, these are about stopping the war. "Stop the war," "Stop the war," "No to war," "No to war." Everywhere you see, "No to war."

And these ribbons here? Yellow and blue. That's the colors of the flag of Ukraine. And here is the Ukrainian flag here, right here on this picture of Boris Nemtsov right here.

So people here have been telling us that they're coming here because they don't want the war. They're opposed to the war. They're opposed to what the government here is doing. And this is their way of protesting.

Now, typically, what happens when flowers get laid here, the following day, municipal workers will come, and pick them all up, and take them away.

Look, another "No war" sign here. Another a picture of Boris Nemtsov there, as well. He was a leading opposition politician, a problem for the Kremlin when he was shot and killed.

And for the first time so far, since the invasion of Ukraine began, the Ministry of Defense here in Russia admitting that some of their soldiers have been killed, and some of them wounded.

But these end to the war protests, they're continuing. They're going on. So many people here opposed to the war. Not everyone. A lot of people still support President Putin. But many, many are coming out to say they don't.

Nic Robertson, CNN, Moscow.

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HOLMES: I'm Michael Holmes, live in Lviv, Ukraine. I will be back at the top of the hour. Anna Coren, though, picks up on the rest of the day's news after this quick break. I'll see you in a bit.

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ANNA COREN, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT/ANCHOR: Welcome back. I'm Anna Coren in Hong Kong.

Well, China's reaction to the conflict in Ukraine has some Chinese citizens there living in fear. The country has not condemned Moscow's actions, I should say, and has even relaxed some import restrictions, lessening the blow of western sanctions. Well, CNN's Steven Jiang joins me now from Beijing with more.

Steven, China seems to be repeating its tightrope walk that it did back in 2014, when Russia invaded Crimea. It's calling for restraint but refusing to criticize Russia. How is going to do this delicate balance this time around?

STEVEN JIANG, CNN BEIJING BUREAU CHIEF: Well, Anna, some would say it's an impossible balance to strike. Because on one hand, obviously, they are trying to maintain, or even strengthen, this alliance with Russia, with their partnership, now, quote unquote, "having no limits." That's how Xi Jinping and Putin themselves put it after a recent summit here in Beijing.

And as you mentioned, they have -- last time around, in 2014, helped Russia minimize the impact of western sanctions. They may do this again.

But on the other hand, at least publicly, they are trying to stick to this long-held principle of national sovereignty and territorial integrity. Something, of course, they have themselves often used in defending their positions and claims in international disputes.

Remember, Ukraine is a country that China still officially recognizes as a sovereign nation. Actually, as recently as January, Xi and Zelensky, exchanged messages of congratulations on the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic ties. And now, that pledge, of course, sounds quite hollow, given what's been going on.

And then, of course, given China's trading relationships, economic ties with the West. The U.S. and E.U., so much bigger than that with Russia. They are also trying to really minimize their own exposure to all the western sanctions against Russia.

So this is just quite impossible to juggle. That's why people say they cannot avoid making a hard choice. And according to many, as they have, indeed, decided to side with Russia, even though they're unwilling to acknowledge that. So even though publicly they're willing to play the role of a peacemaker, they are judging the matter based on its own merit.

But if you dive a bit deeper into their government statements, read- out, for example, between Foreign Minister Wang Yi and his German counterpart last Saturday, they are very much adopting the Russian talking points, blaming NATO's eastward expansion, saying, Russia's, quote unquote, "legitimate security concerns" have to be addressed. And again, calling on NATO to stop this so-called cold war mentality. And again, voicing their oppositions to all forms of sanctions.

So that is really their position here. And the -- one of the foreign ministry spokeswomen going as far as blaming the U.S. as the culprit of this war in Ukraine.

And one very telling sign, Anna, is they still -- obviously, still using the Russian term "special military operations" to describe this war. Refusing to call this an invasion. Their state media largely providing one-sided reporting on what's

going on in Ukraine, with the state television network, CCTV, for example, time and again citing Russian sources reporting unverified, and even untrue information. For example, saying Zelensky has left Kyiv, and all of these videos were prerecorded.

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So all of this, obviously, have an impact on the public perception to this war on China's decidedly -- the monitored and censured social media platforms, but if you read through the comments, they are largely pro-Russia, pro-Putin. A lot of cheers, applause for the war, with many rooting for Russia to win, actually. Where disparaging terms are thrown at Ukraine and its leaders. So it's -- it's a very, very tough aspect.

COREN: Sorry, only because I want to ask you this --

JIANG: -- picture here, Anna.

COREN: -- next question, steven. Very quickly. China, apparently, was caught off-guard by Putin's military action. And yet, China hasn't told its citizens living in Ukraine to leave. There are no evacuation plans in place.

Chinese citizens even taking to Weibo, pleading for help to get out of Ukraine. What has been the reaction to this from people within the mainland?

JIANG: That's interesting. As you mentioned, there's still some 5 to 6,000 Chinese nationals in Ukraine, according to state media, because the Chinese government have been brushing inside the U.S. warning about an imminent war there. And now, of course, they are trapped.

And because of their compatriots' comments here in China -- some of them have been translated in Ukraine -- some of them are now reporting growing hostility towards Chinese nationals still in Ukraine.

So they're actually posting messages, begging their compatriots back home to stop antagonizing Ukraine during this delicate time.

So as of now, the Chinese government has promised to get them out as soon as they can. As you know, the airspace is closed, so that's going to be difficult to evacuate them now. So that is really one of those real-life consequences of this country's policy and how the social media platforms have been reacting to this war in Ukraine -- Anna.

COREN: Yes. Certainly interesting that European countries were calling for its citizens to leave Ukraine weeks ago. China, silent. Steven Jiang, joining us from Beijing, many thanks.

And thank you for your company. I'm Anna Coren. Michael Holmes returns in just a moment, live from Ukraine, as our breaking news coverage, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, continues.

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