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Pentagon Comments on Russian Invasion Strategy; Talks Between Russia and Ukraine; Refugees Fleeing Ukraine Since Russian Invasion; Comments of U.S. Ambassador to UN on Russian Invasion; New Wave of Russian Attacks, as per Zelenskyy; Interview with Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Joel Rubin. Aired 3:30-4p ET

Aired March 07, 2022 - 15:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[15:30:00]

JOHN KIRBY, PENTAGON PRESS SECRETARY: So, it's interesting that Mr. Putin would have to find himself relying on foreign fighters here. Who they are going to be, how many they are getting, what many they're going to pay? All of that we don't have perfect visibility on. But we're in no position to refute the accounts that they might be seeking to recruit Syrian fighters.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: And since you mentioned that, it's kind of interesting that he's -- that the Russian President is trying to rely on foreign fighters. Do you have an assessment, despite all the troops he has inside of Ukraine now, why he has to go and tap into foreign fighters, especially in Syria?

KIRBY: I can't get inside Mr. Putin's head. He has pretty much all the combat power that he assessed -- I'm sorry, that he assembled. Our assessment is, he has pretty much all of it inside Ukraine now, the ground forces in particular. So, he has an awful lot of combat power available to him. We still assess that he has the vast majority of that combat power available to him. I can't begin to speculate why he would find it necessary to seek help from foreign fighters.

We do believe, as I said to Jen, that they are having morale problems. They are having supply problems. They are having fuel problems. They are having food problems. They are meeting a very stiff and determined Ukrainian resistance. And we still maintain that they are several days behind what they probably thought they were going to be in terms of their progress.

But I can't, honestly, I cannot get inside, you know, Mr. Putin's brain as to why he would find it necessary to seek support from foreign fighters. David.

VICTOR BLACKWELL, CNN NEWSROOM ANCHOR: All right. John Kirby at the Pentagon giving update on the war in Ukraine.

Let's bring back now CNN Military Analyst, Retired Army General Wesley Clark. Also, CNN Pentagon Correspondent Oren Liebermann.

General, I want to start with you. With what we learned, the Pentagon confirming that they believe nearly 100 percent of the pre-staged forces there in Belarus and along the border with Ukraine and Russia are now in the country, in Ukraine. So, what does that portend for the coming days, weeks, as we are seeing this frustration on behalf of the Russian military?

GEN. WESLEY CLARK (RET.), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Well, I think it means two things. Number one is, that he is going to increase the use of heavy fires in an effort to bring greater pressure against President Zelenskyy to try to force him to concede or surrender. And that was the point he made today. Putin's people made today in the discussions with Zelenskyy. Zelenskyy reportedly said, no. But that's the pressure point. And I think you're going to see that, secondly, that the Russians are going to be mobilizing and maneuvering reserve forces just to be sure. And third, I think if Putin becomes impatient, it increases the likelihood that he will seek to use a nuclear weapon somewhere.

ALISYN CAMEROTA, CNN NEWSROOM ANCHOR: Well, that's chilling to hear that. I mean, that's obviously what the U.S. and the entire world is trying to prevent, but who knows, as we've heard what's in Putin's head.

Oren, there were a couple of questions that the Press Secretary, John Kirby, there just answered by saying, we don't have perfect visibility into what's happening on the ground in Ukraine. He was talking about that 40-mile convoy of Russian military equipment that's been sitting there and stalled. Then he basically said, we don't have perfect visibility into what its purpose was. We think it's a -- it was a supply -- that those were supply trucks. Why doesn't the Pentagon have better visibility? Aren't they -- I mean, we've been told that they are sharing intelligence in Realtime with Ukrainian officials? Shouldn't they know what the purpose at that point -- at this point of that convoy is?

OREN LIEBERMANN, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: It's a function of what they're able to see. They have a number of different avenues for intelligence. Some of the more obvious ones are satellite images. But to get a better sense of what's actually happening in that convoy, without boots on the ground, that becomes incredibly difficult. So, they can look from above. They're talking to the Ukrainians, and I suspect they're getting some assessment of what's happening from the Ukrainians. But to know exactly why that convoy went in and why it's stuck, that requires a tremendous level of granularity.

And when the U.S. stopped flying overflights reconnaissance and surveillance overflights as the invasion began, they, perhaps, lost the ability to get that level of detail. So, we've been watching this and asking about this for days. It hasn't moved in probably four or five days now and remains something like 25 kilometers or 15-and-a- half miles outside of Kyiv City center. And we've always been asking, what's it doing there? So, there is some -- whether it's an assessment or a conclusion, Press Secretary John Kirby was very careful about how he worded this, but he says, it looks like a resupply convoy that doesn't appear to have too many military vehicles there.

[15:35:00]

But as for the questions of, why it still hasn't moved, there isn't anything beyond what we've known already. Supply issues, sustainment issues, logistic issues, coupled with what they believe they're seeing in terms of morale issues and fierce resistance from the Ukrainians, that's the best picture we can get. Beyond that requires, obviously, what the U.S. doesn't have right now, which is somebody on the ground looking at that with their eyes.

CAMEROTA: That's really helpful. General Wesley Clark, Oren Liebermann, thank you very much.

BLACKWELL: All right. Joining us now is Joel Rubin. He's a Former Assistant Deputy Secretary of State and a former policy director for Ploughshares Fund, that's a global security foundation focused on nuclear nonproliferation and conflict resolution.

Joel, thanks for being with me. Let's start here with what we heard from General Clark there, that if there is this continued frustration of Russian forces and there is no submission from the Ukrainian government, that there's a possibility that Vladimir Putin could use a nuclear weapon. Do you think that's possible?

JOEL RUBIN, FORMER DEPUTY ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF STATE: Well, Victor, first and foremost, committing war crimes is Vladimir Putin's strategy in this war. So, we have to remember that for him, anything could be on the table. But we've got a Commander in Chief here in Joe Biden that understands the danger of that outcome. Several times now he's been tested. He has figured out how to move Putin off of the rhetoric, the threats of nuclear war, the sort of language that would raise one's hackles certainly, and Biden gets it.

And I just don't think that's --

BLACKWELL: But what's the evidence of that that you -- that you've seen that this administration has been able to move Vladimir Putin?

RUBIN: The first --

BLACKWELL: There were negotiations and talks for -- well, not negotiations, but talks for months and at the -- the day of the invasion, the Secretary of State says, well, he always wanted to go in. So, what's that evidence that the administration has been successful?

RUBIN: Specifically on the nuclear weapons use issue is what I'm referring to. And on that, without a doubt, when Vladimir Putin stated that he would unleash impacts on European capitals and on the United States, they have never seen before, Biden shrugged it off. And we did not see movement from nuclear force postures from Russia that changed. So, we saw that, kind of, move away to the side. And we've also seen Vladimir Putin say that, sanctions -- there would be an act of aggression. He's feeling the pain, feeling the pinch, and we're squeezing him right now. So, what is happening is, he is getting forced into making choices. But it's true, he is committing human rights atrocities daily, and increasing those daily. And that's something that is incredibly difficult to rebut and that's why we're supporting the Ukrainian military in this moment as well very aggressively. But these sanctions, this ability to manage him when he gets into that language, that's crucial to avoid a nuclear war. We do not need a nuclear war in this theater.

BLACKWELL: No, absolutely. No one wants a nuclear war. I will say after that statement, the Russian forces took control of the Zaporizhzhia facility. And the U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. says that, there are Russian forces that are closing in on a third Russian facility. And in addition to Chernobyl, they already had from the first day in Southern Ukraine. But let me move on to a broader question. Do you believe that there is a diplomatic end to this, a diplomatic solution to this war?

RUBIN: This is the most critical moment for American diplomacy in post-World War II history. This is the moment where we are going to see a lot of different actors get involved. There are bilateral engagements that have failed. There are multi-lateral discussions. There are back channels right now. And I think that what we're seeing is a very active maneuvering right now, globally, with different countries. Turkey engaged, Israel engaged, trying to find wiggle room to get a diplomatic solution. President Zelenskyy himself said, there has to be a way for him to talk to Putin to end this. So, they're never going to give up on finding a way out of this because ultimately Putin's going to have to change his mind and pull back in order for this conflict to end.

BLACKWELL: But there's been no evidence of that thus far. Of course, the world is hoping that it will end with a pullback of some sort. Joel Rubin, thank you.

CAMEROTA: So, we've been seeing this devastating pictures and video of people fleeing Ukraine, like this little boy who was crying, right here, as he walks alone. What's his future? Where is his family? We have an update on the refugee situation next.

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[15:40:00]

ANDERSON COOPER, CNN ANCHOR AND CORRESPONDENT: Moments ago, the U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. said her Polish counterpart told her that 100 refugees are crossing the border into Poland every single minute. The U.N. says more than 1.7 million refugees have fled Ukraine since the first Russian tanks rolled in and missiles started hitting Ukrainian soil.

Now, this is video of a child crying as he walks near the Polish border, ahead of a group of adults. Heartbreaking image of the human suffering Russia is inflicting on Ukraine. CNN Sara Sidner is at the border between Ukraine and Poland. What do we know about this boy and the others who are fleeing Ukraine?

SARA SIDNER, CNN SENIOR CORRESPONDENT: Yes. You know, we talked about this earlier yesterday, Anderson, that most of the time the children aren't crying. And that usually actually means something bad, that they are in shock and they are incapable, at this point in time, to deal with all that has happened to them.

[15:45:00]

This little boy, and we still haven't seen by the way, I know there was warnings about this, but we still haven't seen unaccompanied minors. We have seen one. And usually what you see is children sometimes walking in front of or behind their parents as they come over the border. But we have seen a huge number of children and mothers coming across without their fathers, without their grandfathers.

Many of the men stayed back as they were asked to do and ordered to do to fight for their country. And many of those men, by the way, are fighting for their country not being a member of the military or the police. They are fighting with whatever they have and whatever is around them and whatever they can get their hands on.

And so, it's pretty incredible to consider that when these families leave, when it's just a mother and a couple of children, they have left their father and husband behind and are trying to figure out what to do next. Here's one of the things they do, they come to this area, this is actually the parking lot about 20 minutes from the border. It is a defunct Tesco, which is a huge shopping center. And these boxes are filled with clothes. There are mountains of clothes.

Just behind me, Jerry will turn around and see a bus has just come in from the border there, and it is packed with people. You can see it completely full. Usually, they will open that up and let people off, start taking out their bags as they get ready to transition once more. Now, something else that we've noticed out here is, that if you walk a bit further, this old building that used to be a shopping center that had a whole bunch of different things inside from Nike shoes to, you know, clothing, you are seeing human beings instead of things that used to be sold for sale. Like this used to be a shopping center. Now it is a refugee camp. And there really isn't anything inside when it comes to bedding or any comforts, it's just warm in there so that people can go in. And you'll see there's a big transport sign there, so people can kind of get themselves together here. There's a taxi sign. There's all manner of things saying, hey, if you need help, here's who to call, here's what to do. But a lot of people are showing up not knowing exactly where they are going. It is heartbreaking to watch this happen day in and day out, Anderson.

COOPER: And on that image of that little boy, I mean, I do think it's important for viewers to realize it is likely he was with the group traveling -- walking behind him or maybe a group in front of him. Yet just to reiterate your point, Sara, you are not seeing children stumbling across the border all by themselves. It's people traveling in groups. It's families. He was probably just walking -- he's probably been walking for a great distance and is walking ahead of his family.

SIDNER: Yes. He's tired. Yes, he's tired. He's frustrated. As you would be. I mean, adults, you know, you see adults that are near tears. So, you know, here's a child that's just trying to figure out what to do and he's exhausted. And I think that's what you're seeing there. We do know there have been some orphans that have had to come over and there are groups trying to help them. But we really aren't seeing those huge numbers of unaccompanied children, Anderson. We are seeing them with their mothers or their grandmothers.

COOPER: Yes. Well, we're just thankful for that. Sara Sidner, appreciate it. Thank you so much.

I want to sending it back to Victor and Alisyn. The scenes at the border, I mean, it's just -- it's day after day. It just keeps on going.

CAMEROTA: Absolutely. We hope that that's the back story with that little boy.

BLACKWELL: Yes.

CAMEROTA: Obviously, we'll share any information that we get. But just watching, as you say, the scene at the border of Poland having to absorb and doing it willingly the, you know, tens of thousands -- the thousands and thousands of people coming in, all countries are doing that and they're saying at some point they're going to reach capacity.

BLACKWELL: Yes. Poland's saying, 100 people a minute coming across the border. And many of these people have no idea what they will go back home to. I mean, they're --

CAMEROTA: Or when.

BLACKWELL: Or when, if they will be able to go back.

All right. Anderson Cooper, thank you.

Question, will efforts to increase NATO defenses give Vladimir Putin reason to pause or might they make him more aggressive? We'll ask our expert who's inside Ukraine, next.

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[15:50:00]

CAMEROTA: The U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations says, it's clear that Vladimir Putin has a plan to destroy and terrorize Ukraine. And the United States is concerned that the world needs to be prepared for a very long and very difficult road ahead.

BLACKWELL: Let's discuss Michael Bociurkiw, he's a former spokesman for the Organization for Secured and Cooperation in Europe. He is also a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council. He is in Lviv.

Michael, welcome back. I want to start here with this assessment and what we heard from the Secretary of State, that the U.S. has seen reports of abuses that's would constitute war crimes. Do you think that threat, that potential of ICC charging it with war crimes plays into Putin's strategizing one way or another, for better or worse?

MICHAEL BOCIURKIW, SENIOR FELLOW AT THE ATLANTIC COUNCIL: Absolutely not. We've seen, for example, the Russian towards that MH17 Trial. in 2014. Remember where the plane that came down in 2014? Well, the trial has resumed in The Hague.

[15:55:00]

And the Russians have been anything but cooperative in that. About handing over witnesses, primary radar data, that sort of thing.

So, I don't think that's a fear -- a threat to them at all. But to tell you, I have got to say, I still have a chill down my back of what General Clark just said that as a growingly impatient Mr. Putin may be forced to use a nuclear weapon. And I have to tell you, I spoke to some of my best Kremlin watchers today. And what they saw in Mr. Putin today, they haven't seen before. He's losing his train of thought. He looks more anxious, nervous, doodling rather than writing things down.

So, that we -- you know, should be concerned about his state of mind right now. What we've been seeing happening on the battlefield indeed are war crimes. And I was on a panel last night with a Canadian military expert and he says, what we're seeing right now is straight out of that Russian play book in Syria, Chechnya, and elsewhere that encirclement of cities bombarding them into submission. People either submit or flee. And, as you know, that a lot are fleeing. And that's another thing, is president Putin is using migration. He's weaponized migration. And Europe is quickly becoming overburdened.

CAMEROTA: How could it not, Michael? How could it not? I mean, every time we talk to you, you give us such a good sense of what's happening on the ground. And I know that there's a feeling inside Ukraine and I know you share it of why not a no-fly zone. Please U.S., NATO help us with a no-fly zone. That's the only thing that will. But the perspective here that we've heard from our generals is that, that starts World War III. I mean, the second a U.S. pilot shoots down a Russian pilot, that -- you know, then Vladimir Putin is truly untethered from -- if there are any restraints around him. Is that understood by, you know, in Ukraine?

BOCIURKIW: Well, before I answer that, if I could give you one more kind of discovery here. I just checked the weather forecast for Koh Ta Kyiv, and a few other cities in Ukraine, but the bad news is, is that as of -- after tomorrow, the temperatures are going below zero pretty much for the rest of the week and into the single digits at night. There are two problems there, of course, immediate problems, what are the conditions faced by the migrants on the move or by those that are staying put in their bombed-out buildings without heat and electricity. The other, of course, with that long of a low temperature, the ground, of course, becomes harder, freezes, and that could become a military advantage for the Russians.

On the no-fly zone, you know, Alisyn, I think -- BLACKWELL: Yes. And the other thing we need consider really --

CAMEROTA: Hold on, Michael.

BLACKWELL: -- is that those people who are trying to escape.

CAMEROTA: Absolutely.

BLACKWELL: Trying to evacuate to some safe place have to deal with those temperatures.

CAMEROTA: Yes. The condition is going to be worse.

BLACKWELL: Michael, we've got to wrap it there on time. Michael Bociurkiw in Lviv, thank you.

CAMEROTA: We'll talk to you soon, Michael.

BLACKWELL: "The Lead with Jake Tapper" starts after a quick break.

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