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Source: NATO Not Expecting Major Russian Gains In Coming Days; Russia Pitches Limited Ceasefire, Humanitarian Corridors; U.N.: More Than Two Million People Have Fled Ukraine; Thousands Flock To Lviv Amid Calls For Global Aid. Aired 12-1a ET

Aired March 09, 2022 - 00:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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ANNOUNCER: This is CNN Breaking News.

MICHAEL HOLMES, CNN ANCHOR: Hello, and welcome to our viewers in the United States and all around the world. I'm Michael Holmes, coming to you live from Lviv in Ukraine.

Russia again proposing a limited ceasefire in five Ukrainian cities set to take effect in just a few hours from now, another chance to get civilians out and aid supplies in.

Now, it includes the Northeastern city of Sumy which Ukraine says was hit with Russian airstrikes just before Tuesday's pause in the fighting. Authorities say 21 people were killed including two children.

The Ukrainian president's office says roughly 5,000 people were evacuated from Sumy on Tuesday. They included Indian, Chinese, Jordanian and Tunisian nationals.

Planned evacuation zone did not materialize in four other cities, Ukraine accusing Russian forces of firing on an aid convoy headed for the Southern port city of Mariupol. A senior U.S. official says the city is isolated and under constant Russian bombardment.

Meanwhile, lawmakers in the U.K. gave a standing ovation to the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who vowed in a video address that his country would fight to the end.

He again asked for a NATO to establish a no-fly zone over Ukraine. Although, NATO is still resisting that idea. And he also criticized the international community for not doing more to help Ukraine.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT (through translator): Strengthen the sanctions against the terrorist state, recognize it as a terrorist state, find a way to make our Ukrainian sky safe. Do what you can, do what you have to. (END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: U.S. President Joe Biden taking another major step to punish Russia for its invasion of this country. He announced the ban on Russian oil, natural gas and coal imports. Mr. Biden admits it will mean higher gas prices for Americans but calls it Putin's gas hike.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOE BIDEN, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Today, I'm announcing the United States is targeting the main artery of Russia's economy. We're banning all imports of Russian oil and gas and energy. That means Russian oil will no longer be acceptable in the U.S. ports and the American people will deal another powerful blow to Putin's war machine.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: Now, as this conflict grinds on and on, one thing seems increasingly clear, this war is not playing out the way the Kremlin had initially hoped. A NATO official telling CNN that Russian troops aren't making much progress and that NATO's intelligence suggests that Russia won't be making any major gains for the next few days.

CNN's Jim Sciutto reports.

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JIM SCIUTTO, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Nearly two weeks into the invasion, the war in Ukraine has become a slow, grinding conflict. Not the blitzkrieg advance the Russian military had planned and hoped for.

AVRIL HAINES, U.S. DIRECTOR OF NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE: Russia's failure to rapidly seize Kyiv and overwhelm Ukrainian forces has deprived Moscow of the quick military victory that probably had originally expected.

SCIUTTO: U.S. and NATO military assistance to Ukrainian forces has flowed in quickly and in enormous quantities.

Today, the U.S. and partners have provided some 17,000 anti-tank missiles, including the javelin and AT4 shoulder-fired systems. And according to a senior U.S. official, some 3,700 anti-aircraft missiles, including the Stinger shoulder fired missile, the vast majority since the start of the invasion.

These missiles have had an immediate impact on the battlefield. This is a shoulder-fired missile shooting down a Russian attack helicopter.

BRIG. GEN. STEVE ANDERSON (RET.), U.S. ARMY: It's a race between our ability and NATO's ability to push forward supplies such as the 17,000 missiles that have been recently approved to get those into the hands of the Ukrainian war fighters before the Russians can regroup and get their logistics, lines of communication and capabilities, up to snuff. SCIUTTO: Military losses are harder to gauge. According to two senior U.S. officials briefed on the intelligence, the U.S. estimates Russia has lost somewhere between 2,000-4,000 soldiers, though this assessment comes low confidence. The U.S. does not have reliable information on losses of Ukrainian military personnel.

On the battlefield, Russian forces have advanced more quickly in the South from Russian-controlled territory in Crimea, more slowly in the East and the North, though they continue efforts to surround cities such as Kharkiv. A senior U.S. official tells me the U.S. believes Russia is still several days from being able to surround the capital Kyiv, and after that, faces a protracted battle to occupy the city itself.

[00:05:20]

AVRIL HAINES, DIRECTOR OF NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE: Our analysts assessed that Putin is unlikely to be deterred by such setbacks and instead may escalate. We assessed Putin feels aggrieve the West does not give him proper deference and perceive this is a war he cannot afford to lose.

SCIUTTO: As Russia's advance has stalled, its forces have increasingly targeted the civilian population with aerial bombardment and shelling, following a time-worn Russian strategy that pursued ruthlessly in Chechnya in the 1990s and more recently in Syria.

At least 474 civilians, including 29 children have been killed since the invasion began, this according to the U.N. Human Rights Office, and a further 861 injured. Though the U.N. believes the true figure is likely to be "considerably higher".

Jim Sciutto, CNN, Lviv.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: And joining me now once again from Canberra, Malcolm Davis, he's a senior analyst in defense strategy and capability at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. It's always good to get you on, sir.

The pounding of civilian areas continues. But as we were just discussing there in Jim's story and earlier, would appear the actual advance of Russian troops in terms of achieving objectives like encircling Kyiv is still slow, what is your read of progress or otherwise?

MALCOLM DAVIS, SENIOR ANALYST, AUSTRALIAN STRATEGIC POLICY INSTITUTE: Thanks, Michael. I think that the Russians are still making very slow progress. It's a real slog for the Russians. I think in part, this is due to the lack of logistic support. So, to sustain high intensity operations, you've noticed, for example, the number of servers to surface missiles that are being fired, has decreased remarkably over the last few days, because they can't maintain that rate of fire or they'll run out of missiles. The same goes with the the sorts of artillery barrages. Now, as the Russian forces maneuver around Kyiv and Kharkiv with the

intent in particular in Kyiv of taking the city center in the next three to four days, then you will see that pick up again.

But I think that the Russians are struggling to sustain operational and tactical momentum. And this is really becoming quite apparent in terms of how the Russian government is responding, including bringing in foreign fighters into the battlefield.

HOLMES: Yes, and then the missile-point you made is a good one, 630 something fired total, but I think 300 were fired in the first few days. So, it's really slowed down.

It is smart, isn't it for a smaller underdog army like the Ukrainians to avoid, you know, big frontal battles in favor of ambushes and attacks on supply lines? Is that what you're seeing with the Ukrainians in this war, being nimble, moving quickly strike and leave?

DAVIS: Exactly. I think if the Ukrainians tried to confront the Russians in a head on battle, they would lose and they would lose badly. Because the Russians still have weight of numbers and quantity has a quality all of its own.

So, really, the key to victory for the Ukrainians is to hit the Russian supply lines and slow them down that way. And they seem to be achieving success in that regard. That 60-kilometer-long column North of Kyiv, for example, it's sitting stationary, because it's run out of fuel, essentially, which leaves it wide open to stinging attacks by ambushing Ukrainian units. And that's sapping the morale of the Russian forces in that column.

So, you know, these are the sorts of tactics they're using very effectively.

HOLMES: Yes, taking out individual tanks, they took out an artillery position the other day. The West has certainly shocked Russia. I think we can agree with both, you know, its unity and the strength of the sanctions, even stronger sanctions coming in all the time.

I'm curious, your thought on how delicate the risk balances is. Is there a a tipping point when the strength of punishment combined with a lack of battlefield progress becomes an existential threat to Putin and could cause him to lash out even more?

DAVIS: I think that is a real danger, and it's likely to be a danger that grows in the next few days, potentially into the next couple of weeks.

As we ramp up the intensity and the effectiveness of sanctions, in particular we stopped buying Russian oil, for example, that's going to start placing real pressure not only on Putin, but also the people around him, the oligarchs.

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DAVIS: And so, it's more likely that he'll become more isolated, more paranoid, and like a cornered animal, he's likely to lash out. And I do fear that that's where you could see significant escalation. There's already been talk, for example, that the Russians are trying to create a false flag operation involving chemical and biological weapons. That would, you know, (INAUDIBLE) justification to move to tactical nuclear weapons.

HOLMES: Yes, that is worrying and the Russians already putting that false flag out there.

Though, you touched on something that I think is really interesting. For Mr. Putin, losing this war could take many forms. I mean, he could win the battlefield with sheer numbers, but lose the overall war in terms of his aims.

I was interviewing an analyst yesterday who said that, you know, one history -- lesson of history is that autocratic rulers cannot lose wars and remain autocrats. How much damage could Putin be doing to his own political survivability?

DAVIS: I think he's very conscious of that. His primary motivation in all of this is his own personal power and his grip on power. And I think if he seemed to lose this war, then that grip will be severely weakened.

So, I do think that the risk is of groups around him moving against him in a coup d'etat. At the same time, you've got growing popular unrest that could generate the possibility of a color revolution in the streets of Moscow.

So, I do think that there's a real risk that, you know, as I said, he's a cornered animal. Could he lash out? Could he escalate, including potentially to the use of nuclear weapons? That's what's on the back of everyone's mind at the moment.

HOLMES: Yes, always terrific analysis, Malcolm Davis. Good to see you. We'll have you back. Thanks so much.

DAVIS: Thank you.

HOLMES: All right, more than two million people have now fled Ukraine since the start of this Russian invasion. Get your head around that number, two million. The U.N. says hundreds of thousands of others are still on the move, trying to flee combat zones inside this country if they can. The struggle to survive and escape especially hard on the elderly and other vulnerable people.

CNN's Clarissa Ward reports.

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CLARISSA WARD, CNN CHIEF INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice over): Incredibly, they emerge, some still standing. Some too weak to walk after more than a week under heavy bombardment in the Kyiv suburb of European.

Volunteers help them carry their bags, the final few feet to relative safety. There are tearful reunions as relatives fear dead finally appear after days of no contact with the outside world.

Many are still looking for their loved ones. Soldiers help where they can. For Larissa (PH) and Andre (PH), it is an agonizing wait. Their son has been pinned down in the hotel he owns.

We wait, we hope, we pray, they tell me. This is the grief of all mothers, of all people, Larissa says. This is a tragedy.

Every time the phone rings, there's a scramble, anticipation that it could be their son's voice on the line. This time, it is not.

Excuse me, I can't talk, Andre says. I'm waiting for my son. They are not the only ones waiting. These residents of a nursing home were among the last to be evacuated from Irpin. They have been sitting here now for hours. Confused and disorientated, many don't know where they are going. Volunteer gently guides these women back to wait for the next bus.

Valentina (PH) tells us she is frightened and freezing after days of endless shelling and no heat. I want to lie down, she says, please help me.

But for now, there is no place to lie down. The women are shepherded onto a bus, their arduous journey, not over yet.

For Larissa and Andre, the wait is finally over. Their son is alive.

ANDRIY KOLESNIK, IRPIN RESIDENT: The only words you can tell to the phone, like mom, I'm alive. Mom, I'm alive. And that's it.

WARD: I'm the happiest mother in the world right now, she says. My son is with me. But not every mother here is so lucky. And for many, the weight continues.

Clarissa Ward, CNN, Kyiv.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

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HOLMES: It's hard to watch, isn't it? Well, for the many fleeing Ukraine, the road to safety filled with both sadness and anticipation as well. Some of those forced from their homes tell us what it took to get across the border.

Also, when we come back, the city of Lviv has become a safe haven for displaced Ukrainians, but it's mayor warning vital supplies and help are needed to take care of a growing population. We'll be right back.

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HOLMES: Welcome back, I'm Michael Holmes coming to you from Lviv in Ukraine. And the United Nations says the number of people fleeing this country has now passed two million. Most of the refugees, women, children and the elderly since men of fighting age are actually barred from leaving. Poland has taken in the vast majority of the refugee, some 1.2 million

people. Hundreds of thousands of others have made it to neighboring Slovakia, Hungary, Moldova, and Romania, where many of them have family and connections.

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HOLMES: Other parts of Europe have received some 200,000 of these refugees. The E.U. warning the humanitarian crisis will only grow more urgent.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

YLVA JOHANSSON, E.U. COMMISSIONER FOR HOME AFFAIRS: This will not be over soon. Putin is fighting his war without restraint or remorse or mercy. More is to come. Worse is to come. Millions more will flee and we must welcome them.

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HOLMES: Now, for many, the emotionally charged journey out of Ukraine is full of frustration.

CNN's Scott McLean shows us the situation along Ukraine's border with Poland.

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SCOTT MCLEAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice over): For more than a million Ukrainians, the road to safety in Poland is filled with checkpoints, bumper to bumper traffic and seemingly endless anticipation.

Valentina Dekhtiarenko and her family have been waiting to cross the border for more than 24 hours. They're still nowhere near the front of the line.

VALENTINA DEKHTIARENKO, UKRAINIAN REFUGEE (through translator): I don't know what's waiting for me and my family. We're going into the unknown and it scares us.

MCLEAN: Everyone in their cars is willing to wait, closer to the border, even hobble. Buses drop people off by the dozens to cross on foot, joining lines that stretch for blocks and for hours.

Max Amelin is taping and zip tying leftover insulation from his heating business to his daughter's feet, to make sure she's warm while she waits for hours in the frigid cold.

You just wanted to make sure that your family got here safe.

NATALIA AMELIN, UKRAINIAN REFUGEE (through translator): Yes, he saves us and that's all.

MCLEAN: When they get to the front of the line, Max will have to stay behind as a man of fighting age. His in laws aren't leaving either. AMELIN (through translator): It's very difficult. It's so hard. My heart is ripped into pieces. My parents stayed back in Kyiv region. I don't know even what is going with them now. It's so scary.

MCLEAN: Ilona Gutnichenko, her young daughter and godson in tow, fled the heavy shelling of Irpin, just outside Kyiv.

ILONA GUTNICHENKO, UKRAINIAN REFUGEE: It was terrible. And we left only two days ago, set on the last train. We didn't believe that in 21st century, it can be the real war.

MCLEAN: Valentina also fled Kyiv. She's never been forced from her home. But she is no stranger to tragedy.

DEKHTIARENKO (through translator): My husband died at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant. Do you understand? And that's what they are doing now. They are destroying the whole world. It is outrageous. People around the world shall not be silent.

MCLEAN: This elderly couple fled Kharkiv, but only after spending eight days sheltering in a metro station. On the eighth day, an explosion shook their underground hideout.

VLADIMIR CHUMAKOV, UKRAINIAN REFUGEE (through translator): The women were hysterical. I understood this is not going to pass. This horror cannot be endured. I cannot express it, the fear, the crying children. When I saw a pregnant woman entering the metro, I understood this cannot be forgiven.

MCLEAN: From here, many have no idea where they'll go when they get to Poland, or when they might be able to come back.

Scott McLean, CNN, near the Polish border in Ukraine.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: Now, thousands of these people have come here to Lviv to escape Russian attacks, but now the city has maxed out its resources and is in desperate need of outside help to feed and house the influx of displaced people. It's a temporary stop for some but many have remained here, unsure of where to go from here.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES (voice over): In one of the best-known theaters in Ukraine's cultural capital Lviv, no audience to be entertained, rather, families seeking shelter from war. We never imagined we would end up living in a theater again, he tells us, we never imagined leaving our home and fleeing our city.

Tamila says she fled Kyiv two days ago to get her kids out of danger, leaving her mother and husband behind. Now, she contemplates what's to come.

TAMILA KHELADZE, DISPLACED MOTHER: We lived happy and we have plans for future, for locations for our babies, for studying for our babies, and it was a happy future.

HOLMES: Throughout the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Lviv has been nervous but otherwise an oasis of relative quiet.

And that made this city a destination for those running from where the shells are falling. Most of them are moving on to the border but more than 200,000 have decided to stay here. Lviv welcoming them, looking after them.

[00:25:05]

HOLMES: But now, the city's mayor says Lviv is full and we need help.

ANDRIY SADOVYI, LVIV MAYOR: This has put a lot of pressure on us and the infrastructure of Lviv. I would like to address international organizations asking for support. We need you now and we need you here.

HOLMES: Andriy Sadovyi is pleading for tents, food medical supplies. He says more than 400 cultural and educational facilities are being used to house the displaced.

Here a school, a place of learning in normal times, now a place of refuge for families not knowing their next move, other than it won't be going home.

VICTORIA HARBATIY, DISPLACED GRANDMOTHER (through translator): It is difficult to imagine how this craziness began. For the sake of what? For what reason are they killing people? What have we done to deserve this?

HOLMES: Lviv a historic city in need of help, the impact of this war being felt well away from the frontlines.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES (on camera): Now, if you would like to help people in Ukraine who might be in need of shelter, food and water, go to CNN.com/Impact, you'll find several ways there you can help.

As Russian forces began the invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin made a threat which brought back memories of the Cold War.

Coming up, how Western countries are analyzing the Russian president's nuclear stance, we'll be right back.

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HOLMES: Welcome back, everyone. I'm Michael Holmes. Let's recap the latest developments here in Ukraine for you.

[00:3054]

Russia proposing a new, limited ceasefire to take effect in about half an hour, and it would create humanitarian corridors out of five cities, including Sumy. Ukrainian authorities say Russian airstrikes there killed 21 people,

including two kids on Monday night. There was a frantic evacuation out of Sumy shortly after those strikes. A lot of people did get out. Ukrainian officials say about 5,000 got out on Tuesday.

The U.N. says more than 2 million refugees, meanwhile, have fled the country since the invasion began. That is a milestone the U.N. high commissioner for refugees called terrifying.

And a senior U.S. defense official now saying that Russian forces are making more progress, advancing in the south, than elsewhere in the country. The official says Russia is facing more resistance in its pushes towards Kharkiv and Chernihiv in the north.

Now, Ukraine's president echoing Winston Churchill's famous World War II message in an address to the U.K.'s House of Commons. Volodymyr Zelenskyy vowed to fight to the end and urging the U.K. to recognize Russia as a terrorist state.

He reiterated his call for a no-fly zone once again and criticized NATO for failing to deliver the help he says Ukrainians need.

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VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT (through translator): On day nine, we listened to the meeting of NATO countries, and we saw no result that we were hoping for. No courage. Yes, I don't want to offend anyone, but we felt the alliances are not working. They can't even close the skies. So, there is a need to rebuild European security from zero.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: Western countries have, of course, rejected Mr. Zelenskyy's calls for a no-fly zone, due to concerns about provoking a more direct confrontation with Russian forces, especially after Vladimir Putin's unnerving threat to turn this into a nuclear war.

CNN's Nina dos Santos reports on how the West is analyzing those threats.

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NINA DOS SANTOS, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): As Russia's tanks rolled into Ukraine, Vladimir Putin made a threat not heard since the height of the Cold War.

VLADIMIR PUTIN, RUSSIAN PRESIDENT (through translator): Russia's response will be immediate and will lead you to such consequences never experienced in your history.

DOS SANTOS: Then, days later, he raised the alert level of the world's largest nuclear arsenal.

SERGEY LAVROV, RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTER (through translator): Everyone knows that a third world war can only be nuclear. DOS SANTOS (on camera): Only nine countries have nuclear weapons. The

theory is that they are preventative mechanisms, hopefully never to be needed in battle.

According to the Arms Control Association, Russia has the largest number of warheads, at just over 6,000. While the U.S. isn't far behind, no other country, not even Israel or North Korea, has anywhere near this type of capability.

Now, most of Russia's warheads are not currently on missile bases. Just over 1,400 of them are deployable at the moment. These find themselves on weapons like intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched missiles, and also on bombers.

(voice-over): But would Russia's president really use them? Britain's defense secretary told the BBC he thinks Putin is bluffing.

BEN WALLACE, BRITISH SECRETARY OF STATE FOR DEFENSE: He reminded everyone he's got nuclear weapons, which as you say, starts to set off people being worried. But secondly, he distracted from what's going wrong in Ukraine.

DOS SANTOS: This expert says the mere threat itself is designed to change the dynamics of the war.

MALCOLM CHALMERS, DEPUTY DIRECTOR-GENERAL, ROYAL UNITED SERVICES INSTITUTE: He is in a corner. Somebody is in the corner in that situation does become more dangerous, more prepared to take risks. It's most unlikely. I don't want to alarm people unnecessarily. The probability of it happening is low, but it's not zero.

DOS SANTOS: The last time nuclear weapons were unleashed, by the U.S. in Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945, more than 100,000 died. At a U.N. disarmament conference, Japan expressed grave concern about Russia.

[00:35:02]

ICHIRO OGASAWARA, JAPANESE AMBASSADOR TO U.N. CONFERENCE ON DISARMAMENT: As the only country to have suffered atomic bombings during war, Japan is fully aware of the catastrophic human carrying cost currencies (ph) of the use of nuclear weapons. We stress, once again, that such tragedy must never be repeated again.

DOS SANTOS: While Russia says its nuclear intentions are purely defensive, that brings to mind its previous assurances that it had no intentions to invade Ukraine.

LAVROV (through translator): It's in the minds of Western politicians that nuclear war is going on. Not in the minds of Russians.

DOS SANTOS: Only P resident Putin knows how far he would really go. In the meantime, it's a gamble that the West can't afford to take.

Nina dos Santos, CNN, in London.

(END VIDEOTAPE) HOLMES: And I will have much more from Ukraine a little later this hour. For now, though, let's bring in John Vause in Atlanta -- John.

JOHN VAUSE, CNN INTERNATIONAL ANCHOR: Michael, as always, thank you. We'll take a short break here on CNN.

When we come back, McDonald's has announced a temporary closure of all its restaurants in Russia, a move which comes with added symbolism, given the role the fast food giant played decades ago in warming relations between Moscow and the West.

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VAUSE: The U.S. has slapped an immediate ban on Russian oil, the latest move to punish Moscow for invading Ukraine and one which could have a devastating impact on Russia's already struggling economy.

The U.S. imports just a fraction of its total energy needs from Russia. Still, President Biden has warned Americans to brace for higher prices at the pump.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOE BIDEN, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: The decision today is not without cost here at home. Putin's war is already hurting American families at the gas pump. Since Putin began his military buildup in Ukrainian borders, just since then, the price of gas at the pump in Americas went up 75 cents. And with this action, it's going to go up further.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

VAUSE: By year's end, the U.K. plans to phase out all imports of Russian oil, which accounts for 8 percent of supply. But for the first time since this conflict began, European allies are out of step with the U.S. and the U.K.

E.U. officials say an embargo on Russian energy is not possible for now, because Russia provides about 40 percent of the E.U.'s natural gas, and 27 percent of its oil, and there are no viable alternatives. Instead, officials announced plans to move away from dependence on Russian energy by the end of the decade, a process which begins now.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

FRANS TIMMERMANS, E.U. CLIMATE POLICY CHIEF: By the end of this year, we can replace 100 BCM of gas imports from Russia. That is two-thirds of what we import from them.

This will end our over-dependency and give us much-needed room to maneuver. Two thirds by the end of this year. It's hard, bloody hard, but it's possible.

(END VIDEO CLIP) VAUSE: While the U.S. embargo on Russian oil is a dramatic escalation by the Biden administration, in terms of punishing Russia, there was another corporate boycott Tuesday which symbolizes just how far relations between the West and Moscow have fallen.

McDonald's announced all 850 fast-food restaurants in Russia would close temporarily, including the very first, which opened more than 30 years ago.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE COHON, FOUNDER, MCDONALD'S CANADA: This is a story of cooperation and understanding among people. This is a story of the McDonald's around the world getting along with our neighbors in the Soviet Union.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

VAUSE: That was the scene, January 31, 1990 in Moscow's Pushkin Square, just months before the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Rana Foroohar is CNN's global economic analyst, as well as a global columnist for and associate editor for "The Financial Times." And it's good to see you, Rana.

RANA FOROOHAR, CNN GLOBAL ECONOMIC ANALYST: It's great to see you.

VAUSE: OK. So we'll talk about oil sanctions in a moment, but with regards to McDonald's, the fast-food giant appeared reluctant to suspend operations. It did so after a lot of criticism.

So, it does say a lot about this rollback of Cold War relations, and you know, will these ties ever be repaired? Will this ever get fixed?

FOROOHAR: Well, you know, it's a great question. And McDonald's is so iconic. And what this puts me in mind of is, if you remember the "New York Times" columnist Tom Friedman's book, "The World is Flat." You know, he had a whole thing about how two countries with McDonald's never go to war with one another. Well, clearly, we are in a different world now. The world is bumpy, not flat.

And I think that this is an indicator. I mean, the fact that not just McDonald's, but pretty much every big corporation at this stage has pulled out of Russia. Its financial system is isolated. The U.S. is saying it's not going to import any more Russian oil. Big deal. Europe's not at that point yet.

But I think that we may be at a stage where, certainly in the next decade or two, it's going to be very difficult to re-integrate Russia into the global economy. I think it's going to end up as a pariah state. It may be in the Chinese orbit, but it's certainly not going to be part of Europe or the West, I think, in the foreseeable future.

VAUSE: Having no McDonald's and not being able to get Starbucks, that's an inconvenience, but targeting energy's energy sector has major ramifications. Already, the ratings agency Finch has downgraded Russia's sovereign debt into junk territory, saying that default is imminent because of proposals that could limit trade and energy, increase the probability of a policy response by Russia that includes at least selective non-payment of its foreign debt obligations.

Is it realistic to think at this stage, Russia's economy is in danger of collapsing?

FOROOHAR: A hundred percent. Assuming, again, that China doesn't come in and, say, pick up the slack on oil or somehow help to prop up the Russian economy.

You know, this is a petrol state. Putin is a petrol autocrat. If he can't get energy money, then they're in trouble.

Now, one of the things that I'm interested in is, if the payments stop, then how does that ping-pong throughout the rest of the financial system? You know, I'm already hearing from people in different countries that they're concerned about, you know, 133285567 a payment from Russia not getting made. That has a knock-on effect on others in different countries.

So not quite a Lehman Brothers kind of a moment, but certainly a potential ripple effect from what's happening in Russia.

[00:45:05]

VAUSE: And just quickly, if you look at everything that's been sanctioned so far, is there anything left which could be hit?

FOROOHAR: Well, you know, Europe -- the oil that goes to Europe, the oil and gas that goes to Europe is essentially the last plug that can be pulled.

But, you know, John, that's 40 percent of Europe's energy. I don't see any way that that's going to happen in the foreseeable future. I know the allies are working very hard to try and block that gap, but in the next couple of years, I think it would be very hard for Europe to get by without this oil.

Now, will Putin decide at some point to just turn it off? That's another big question.

VAUSE: But is there a danger that Putin could have nothing left to lose. And you have a crazed autocrat with nukes with nothing left to lose, that seems to be kind of a dangerous combination?

FOROOHAR: It's a very dangerous combination. And I mean, you're getting the nail on the head, because, essentially, all the analysis we're doing gets down to psychology, at some point. This isn't even about economics or geopolitics anymore. It's really about the psychology of this one pathological individual.

And, no holds barred. You know, it is a very worrisome moment. It's difficult to say what he will do, what the limits will be.

VAUSE: Rana, absolutely, it's a terrifying moment. And we'll keep watching it, and thank you for being with us.

FOROOHAR: Thank you.

VAUSE: China's President Xi Jinping has again criticized Western sanctions on Russia, saying they would dampen the world economy, affect global finance, energy, transportation and supply lines.

During a virtual summit with the president of France and the chancellor of Germany, President Xi did not condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but notably said China was pained to see the flames of war reignited in Europe.

No sign that Beijing does not, perhaps, fully support Vladimir Putin's war of choice.

Other news now, voting is underway in South Korea to choose a new president. According to pre-election polls, there are two frontrunners in a tight race vying to replace the outgoing president, Moon Jae-in.

The Democratic Party's Lee Jae-myung or the People Power Party's Yoon Suk-yeol. The winner will be faced with the ongoing challenge of their neighbor to the north. When it comes to North Korea, both candidates represent a very stark choice.

Back to Seoul, and CNN's Paula Hancocks standing by. This presidential campaign has been dubbed the election of unlikables.

PAULA HANCOCKS, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: That's right, John. I mean, it's certainly left some apathy in this country. We've been hearing from some voters. We've been hearing some experts, but it is not the best choice of the two candidates.

We have seen repeated low blows between these candidates. We've seen scandals within the campaign. We've -- we've seen them criticize the other camp saying, I'm not as bad as this guy.

So certainly, it doesn't even put them in a difficult position, but yet, they have this decision between two leading candidates, ideologically opposed to each other. One conservative, one liberal.

Now, from day one, they will have to deal with a number of pressing foreign policy issues. When it comes to Ukraine, for example, both of these candidates, or I should say neither of them, has any foreign policy experience.

One is a former governor. One is a former state prosecutor. So there have been some gasps when it comes to Ukraine, and they've to apologize for during this -- the campaigning process.

And of course, North Korea is going to be an issue they have to deal with on the one. A North Korea host consistently testing its weapon capabilities at this point. They have a record number of launches in January and do not appear to be interested in the slightest in talking to South Korea, or even the United States, at this point.

So what we're hearing from Lee Jae-myung, from the liberal side, he would, it appears, follow a policy fairly similar to President Moon Jae-in, he wants to engage with North Korea. He wants a step by step process if North Korea does something that shows they're pushing towards denuclearization, start to ease the sanctions.

On the other side, the People's Power Party has a more hardline policy. He believes there should be denuclearization before sanctions are eased at all. He even says, hinted at one point that a preemptive strike on North Korea could be a possibility if it looked like there was going to be an imminent launch against Seoul -- John.

VAUSE: A very stark choice, indeed, when it comes to North Korea.

Paula, thank you. Paula Hancocks, live for us in Seoul.

We'll take a short break. When we come back, what's usually a day of celebration in Ukraine overshadowed by grief. We'll have more on Volodymyr Zelenskyy's somber massage marking International Women's Day.

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HOLMES: Welcome back. As people around the world mark International Women's Day on Tuesday, celebrating the achievements of women, many in Ukraine were forced to spend the day escaping Russian shelling. Some in Kyiv have been hiding out for days in the metro station, converted for now into a bomb shelter. Most of them are women, many with their children.

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ALEXANDRA HEDIDOVIC, KYIV RESIDENT STAYING IN BOMB SHELTER (through translator): Right now, the situation is challenging for men, women, and children. It is hard, but I think our nation is holding on. We believe in our armed forces of Ukraine and our army. We believe in our president. We believe in ourselves, and we hope for the better days to come.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

VAUSE: Now, the Ukrainian president spoke about International Women's Day in a video address, saying he would normally congratulate the country's daughters, wives and mothers, but that he can't celebrate amid so much grief and death.

Well, as the days turn into weeks for those holed up in those bomb shelters, some Ukrainians still finding ways to do the things they love.

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A hauntingly moving performance there by a Ukrainian violinist who is in a shelter. This is in Kharkiv. She posted this video on Instagram, saying it is a song her late grandmother used to sing at family gatherings.

She says her grandmother survived the occupation of Kharkiv in the 1940s. The violinist has no plans to leave her city.

That's all the time we have this hour. I'm Michael Holmes. I will be back with much more from Lviv in just a couple of minutes.

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ANNOUNCER: This is CNN breaking news.

HOLMES: Hello, everyone, I'm Michael Holmes, coming to you live from Lviv in Ukraine. We begin with this news just in to us.

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