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President Biden Approved $800 Million Security Assistance Budget; Brave Prime Ministers Traveled to Kyiv; Ukraine Wants More Help from Allies; Russian TV Personality Fined 30,000 Rubles. Aired 3- 4a ET
Aired March 16, 2022 - 03:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
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HALA GORANI, CNN ANCHOR (on camera): Hello, and welcome to our viewers around the world and in the United States this hour. I'm Hala Gorani coming to you live from Lviv in Ukraine.
Day 21 today of Russia's invasion of Ukraine with air raid sirens and a busy night of explosions in the capital of Kyiv. Now just a few minutes ago, we learned that Russian shelling hit a 12-story residential building not far from the city center. Rescuers evacuated 37 people and they say that two were injured.
And meanwhile, the city is under a curfew until Thursday morning as Russia intensifies its strikes on residential neighborhoods mainly on the outskirts of the capital.
And against that backdrop, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will deliver a virtual address to the American Congress in the coming hours. He is expected to ask for more military aid and a no-fly zone over the country. He has asked for that repeatedly but NATO has resisted from the beginning.
A source tells CNN that the U.S. that will announce another $800 million in security assistance. President Joe Biden traveling to Brussels next week will discuss Russia's invasion of Ukraine with NATO leaders in an extraordinary in-person summit.
Now despite the fighting in and around Kyiv, the prime ministers of Poland, Slovenia, and the Czech Republic made their way to the city to meet with president Zelenskyy. They took a train and they say that they want to let him know that Ukraine is not alone in its fight against Russia.
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PETER FIALA, PRIME MINISTER OF THE CZECH REPUBLIC: You are fighting for your lives, for freedom but we know that you are also fighting for our lives and our freedom. And it is for us, very important.
JANEZ JANSA, PRIME MINISTER OF SLOVENIA: We are bringing here full support for your future not only European, but E.U. membership. MATEUSZ MORAWIECKI, PRIME MINISTER OF POLAND: It should be agreed to
in the next couple of days or weeks. And candidate status will be given until the end of this year at the latest.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GORANI: Well, meanwhile, outside of the relative safety of that very secretive meeting, Russian forces blasted a number of neighborhoods once again. Local officials say at least four people were killed when shells hit this apartment building. Kyiv's major, Vitali Klitschko wore a flak jacket as he walked through the streets surveying the damage.
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VITALI KLITSCHKO, MAYOR, KYIV, UKRAINE: We are not seen to leave. It is our home. We defend our children, family, our buildings, our city and our future, future of Ukraine.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GORANI: Well, the curfew in Kyiv is intended to prevent civilian casualties, people are not allowed to leave their homes without special permission unless they are heading to bomb shelters. Authorities in the eastern city of Kharkiv say one person was killed in strikes on Tuesday. Officials reported 65 instances of shelling in a single day with 600 residential buildings destroyed.
And to the south, the deputy mayor of Mariupol says that Russian forces are holding doctors and patients against their will at a hospital there.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SERGEI ORLOV, DEPUTY MAYOR, MARIUPOL, UKRAINE: The Russian army used doctors and patients as hostages in this building. So, we do not have any access to them. And of course, it's a war crime.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GORANI: Well, Ukrainians are fighting back, in Kherson, Planet Labs says that these satellite images show the airport where Ukraine's military has destroyed at least three Russian helicopters and a number of vehicles.
The Russian advanced is stalled in parts of Ukraine even as Russian forces pound cities with shelling. Western observers say Moscow's initial playbook for invading Ukraine has not gone according to the Kremlin's plan.
CNN's Phil Black takes a look at why this invasion is not unfolding the way that Russia predicted.
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PHIL BLACK, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Russian munitions are still having a devastating impact on civilians in key cities. In Mariupol, in the capital Kyiv, but Russian forces are still making little progress advancing across Ukrainian territory.
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The core U.S. assessment hasn't changed for much of the war.
NED PRICE, SPOKESMAN, U.S. STATE DEPARTMENT: The Kremlin's forces remain stalled in many areas.
BLACK: And experts agree almost three weeks in, Russia is in trouble.
MATHIEU BOULEGUE, RESEARCH FELLOW, RUSSIA AND EURASIA PROGRAMME, CHATHAM HOUSE: No wars go according to plan, the problem is that Russia's plan was extremely bad.
BLACK: The key question -- why?
BOULEGUE: I would argue with a mix of everything, it is a failed or botched concept of operation with plenty of wrong assumptions about the very nature of the battlefield, Russia believing in a way that Ukrainians would capitulate or Ukraine would crumble.
BLACK: And experts believe Russia's failure to secure a quick definitive win has revealed another major flaw in its planning.
KEVIN RYAN, DIRECTOR, DEFENSE AND INTELLIGENCE PROJECTS AT HARVARD: Russia's out of available combat forces to put into this fight.
BLACK: Analysts say Russia's limited forces are now divided between taking territory and laying siege to major cities. Reducing their ability to do both tasks effectively. And that means Russia must be reassessing what victory looks like.
BOULEGUE: At this stage, we are still talking about limited gains and doors if they're simply not enough troops potentially coming from Russia or elsewhere to do a sort of massive full-scale ground invasion of Ukraine. Keep that territory, hold it, and then fights a very costly counter insurrection war.
BLACK: U.S. officials say they are seeing some early efforts to boost troop numbers with foreign fighters.
FRANK MCKENZIE, COMMANDER, U.S. CENTRAL COMMAND: We believe that out of Syria, there are perhaps small, small, very small, groups of people that may be trying to make their way to Ukraine.
BLACK: How the next phase of the war plays out will be significantly determined by Russia's intentions in Kyiv. Trying to take the capital would likely involve months of bombardment and urban warfare.
JAMES STAVRIDIS, FORMER NATO SUPREME ALLIED COMMANDER: That's going to be a tough order of business those Ukrainians know every single alley, every backroom, every road, every intersection. The Russians are going to find themselves in a hard fight. BLACK: Slow Russian progress can help Ukrainian forces by allowing
them more time to prepare and be re-supplied with advanced weapons from allies. But experts say it could also inspire greater brutality from Russia. A willingness to escalate and destroy in order to compensate for its stalled invasion.
Phil Black, CNN, London.
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GORANI: For more now on President Zelenskyy's address to the U.S. Congress, let's bring in Inna Sovsun, she is a member of the Ukrainian parliament, joining me live from western Ukraine. Thank you for joining us.
We know that President Zelenskyy and other political leaders in Ukraine have asked from the start for a no-fly zone over Ukraine, NATO allies have been pretty explicit in their rejection of that idea. What can the west do now do you think to help Ukraine short of that no-fly zone?
INNA SOVSUN, MEMBER, UKRAINIAN PARLIAMENT: Well, I have to be honest, there is not really much that can be done if the no-fly zone is not imposed. That is as clear as day to the military command here in Ukraine and to everyday -- to regular citizens. We need the no-fly zone. Because otherwise, the Russians will not stop bombarding our cities, killing our people and destroying the infrastructure.
The no-fly zone is crucial for the survival of the Ukrainian state right now. We are not asking for the NATO states to intervene directly, we do understand they are not willing to get involved. We do have well, tough feelings about that. But that's a different story. We can impose this no-fly zone ourselves, as long as we get the equipment necessary, the jets and the air defense systems that can help us cover our sky.
GORANI: Right. So, you can impose a no-fly zone yourself, but you need additional weaponry and help? Is that -- I mean President Biden is expected to announce further aid, is your expectation that part of that package would include surface-to-air missiles and that kind of heavy weaponry that you say that you need to impose a no-fly zone?
And I assume you'd also welcome fighter jets, for instance, the ones that Poland was willing --
SOVSUN: Yes.
GORANI: -- to give you through an American base in Germany?
SOVSUN: Yes. We very much hope that that's what the support that we shall be getting. Because frankly speaking, that is the major thing that we need. All of the other things are additional. But if we don't have the no-fly zone, or rather the jets and then the air defense systems that can help us to establish one, anything else doesn't really matter. So, that is actually crucial. Because we are doing quite well on the
ground. We are seeing that the Ukrainian army is actually pushing the Russian army further from the major cities. They push the Russian army on the ground in Kharkiv after heavy bombardment of the city which pains me to see.
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But the Russians didn't get into the city of Kharkiv on the ground so they continue to bombard and destroy it from air. They are bombarding and destroying the Mariupol right now from air. That is just pain in my heart. It's just growing every day.
They're trying to bombard Kyiv. The air defense around Kyiv seems to be better than around other major cities. But we do see missiles hit by the Ukrainian air defense system every day now. I think three days in a row we woke up to the news that yet another residential building has been hit from air by missile that was targeting the city.
So, we do need the air defense system. We do need the jets. It's a pity that the Polish jet situation has been taking so long to get resolved. We could have got those jets now. We could save lives within the last week if we got those jets earlier.
GORANI: So, where do you see, I mean, what is the best-case scenario for you know. Obviously, the NATO allies have said they will not enforce any no-fly zone, but if you get the kind of weapons that you need to enforce it yourself, that would put you in a much better defensive position.
But let's look forward to a potential exit here from this horrendous conflict, what form could that take if the Ukrainian military is able to defend itself against Russian jets and Russian air strikes? What's the possible off-ramp here in your opinion?
SOVSUN: Well, the only way for us to survive is to win in this war. There is no other way.
GORANI: Yes.
SOVSUN: We need the Russians to surrender. They need to accept that they are losing this war and that nonsensical war that made no sense to anyone except for Vladimir Putin. We need to win. There is no other solution to this.
Because every time that we try to make some sort of peace agreement with Russia, they take it as a sign that they can go further. This is what happened in 2014 when they annexed Crimea and didn't get a tough enough reaction from the west. And this is happening right now. We need a win in order to ensure that we can continue building our country or rebuild it in now.
GORANI: I wonder to do you expect a Russian invasion, because so few people actually did. Because exactly what you are laying out, that it doesn't make much sense, Ukraine is a huge country, that on the ground the Russian military would have a very hard time of holding any territory. Did you expect Vladimir Putin to go this far?
SOVSUN: I'll tell you this. We were getting many reports that they're planning to invade. Weeks leading to the invasion I did make plans about my son. I did talk to his father, my ex-husband saying that we shall have to make sure that our son is safe if the war starts. So, we were kind of preparing for that.
Yet on the other hand, it did feel unrealistic. It still feels unrealistic, I have to honest like three weeks ago exactly I had my life, I was living in my house with my son. I was living a regular life that I was building for 20 years in Kyiv. And now it's all gone. I cannot stay at my place. I hardly -- I haven't seen my son for three weeks. I -- my boyfriend is with the army. I don't know where he is. And when I will be able to see him again.
It does feels so realistic because that is just making so very little sense. So, I would say that we knew that the Russians hate us enough. And the fact that we are trying to build a democratic state close to the Russian border, they hate it enough.
But I have to be honest, we could never have imagined missiles hitting the city of Kyiv. That is like, unthinkable. We could think that they can try to go further in Donbas, but Kyiv, including Kyiv is unthinkable. Bombarding the city of Kharkiv, which they claim to be the city that they love and support so much, because the majority of people there are Russian speakers. Well, all Russians speakers over there hate them now and want them out of our country. So.
GORANI: Yes, it does -- it does seem surreal, even for those of us who are not Ukrainian just watching the situation unfold.
Inna Sovsun, thank you so much for joining us. I really appreciate it.
SOVSUN: Thanks for having me.
GORANI: And I hope that you can stay safe and reunite with your family as soon as possible.
The White House says President Biden is a big believer in face-to-face diplomacy, that's what his aides have set. To that end, he will travel to Europe next week to attend the NATO and European Council summits in person. He is expected to discuss a deterrence and defense effort with NATO leaders and Transatlantic measures to impose a more economic punishment on Russia.
Humanitarian support for the millions of refugees is also on the agenda.
Natasha Bertrand is in Brussels at NATO headquarters with the very latest on what we expect from this meeting. Natasha?
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NATASHA BERTRAND, CNN WHITE HOUSE REPORTER: Yes, Hala. So, this is a very kind of last-minute hastily arranged meeting of the NATO leaders here at NATO headquarters next week. And of course, President Biden will also be meeting with European leaders, all in an effort to discuss of course the latest assessment of the Russian military operation in Ukraine.
Now, when they meet next week at NATO headquarters it really is going to be a discussion of what are we seeing on the ground? How is this affecting potentially NATO security, European security? And how can we try to deter any potential aggression by Russia against those NATO member states?
Now we know that NATO member countries have been sending in weaponry to Ukraine steadily over the last several weeks and months. But Ukraine wants more. Ukraine has been asking of course for those fighter jets, for those surface-to-air missiles. Heavier weaponry that they hope can actually make a difference in this conflict against Russia.
Now importantly, President Biden is expected to announce an additional $800 million in security assistance to Ukraine today when he's going to make remarks following President Zelenskyy's speech to the U.S. Congress. And we are not clear yet on what that security assistance will actually entail because officials have declined to actually preview what those new kinds of systems and weaponry will include.
But we are told that they could potentially include armed drones. And that is something that President Zelenskyy of Ukraine has been asking for. So, that would bring the total, if he does announce additional $800 million in security assistance. It would bring the total to $1 billion that the U.S. has allocated to Ukrainian security just in the last week alone, about $2 billion in the last year.
So pretty significant there. Obviously, President Zelenskyy in Ukraine are asking for additional assistance from NATO including that no-fly zone, it does not seem like that is going to happen. And there is a defense ministerial here today at NATO where they will be discussing of course the latest assessment on the ground. And of course, how they can potentially deter aggression against NATO member states.
But this is really the extent of it. Right? They are not going to put NATO forces on the ground there in Ukraine. They are not going to set up this no-fly zone, at least not right now. And so, the discussions this week and next week are really centering around keeping those eastern flank NATO countries feeling secure, reinforcing the troop presence there, and of course keeping that humanitarian assistance and lethal assistance flowing into Ukraine. Hala?
GORANI: All right, Natasha Bertrand in Brussels, thanks very much.
A quick break. When we come back, ahead, new details about the fate of the Russian journalist who staged this dramatic anti-war protest during a state television broadcast.
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GORANI: Welcome back. The Russian journalist who was arrested after that dramatic anti-war protest on live television is speaking out about what she endured in police custody.
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MARINA OVSYANNIKOVA, HELD ANTI-WAR SIGN ON RUSSIA CHANNEL ONE (through translator): Those were indeed very difficult days of my life. I literally spent two days with no sleep. The questioning lasted over 14 hours. I wasn't allowed to contact my relatives or friends. I wasn't provided with any legal assistance. So, I am in quite a difficult position.
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GORANI: So far, she has been spared prison time instead she was fined 30,000 rubles, a little under $300 but that fine wasn't for breaking on to the TV set. It was for a message she recorded before the protest.
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OVSYANNIKOVA (through translator): The Russian people thinking and smart, and it is only in our power to stop all of this madness. Go to the rallies, and do not be afraid. They cannot arrest us all.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GORANI: Well, her protest on Monday came amid a crackdown on anti-war messages in Russia. A new law passed earlier this month allows up to 15 years in prison for anyone convicted of spreading what the Kremlin considers fake news about the invasion.
For more I'm joined by Nina dos Santos in London. So, is she, is that -- is that the extent of what authorities will do to her following her on-air protest? Do we know?
NINA DOS SANTOS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: We don't know at this point, and because people are concerned about this, as you said, there are sort of two charges. One relating to that pre-recorded message that was then disseminated after her arrest after that protest on the main evening news in Russia.
She was fined, as you said 30,000 rubles, the equivalent of about $280 as a result of that charge which she pled guilty to was a charge of organizing unauthorized events. But then of course there may be other charges leveled against her for breaking onto the TV set with of course that message, including concepts and allegations that the Kremlin now decree to be fake news.
Remember that the Kremlin is still saying that what's happening in Ukraine is a special military operation conducted by Russian forces. She, of course had a signed there that said no war. The Kremlin of course deems talk of the invasion of Ukraine as an invasion or as war as something that they can punish with between three and 15 years in jail according to these new laws passed by parliament.
Now, what does the Kremlin have to say about her protests? Well, Dmitry Peskov, the spokesperson for Vladimir Putin said that it was hooliganism. She was praised and said for her, quote, "heroic efforts by the president of Ukraine, President Zelenskyy." And she's also attracted the attention of President Emmanuel Macron of France who said that he may move to offer her asylum in France, or some kind of diplomatic protection inside the French embassy in Russia.
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He said that he pledges to speak with Vladimir -- Vladimir Putin about her fate. So, at this point, it's unclear whether or not she may fall foul of these new draconian rules, but so far, she is free after the 14 hours' worth of questioning and not having been able to speak -- sleep for two days or speak to her family or friends. Hala?
GORANI: All right, Nina de Santos in London, thank you very much. A lot more to come after a quick break as we continue our breaking news coverage.
Volunteers from a small Ukrainian town say they are ready to face Russian forces if needed. We'll show you how the community has banded together to protect what they hold dear.
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GORANI: Welcome back. I'm Hala Gorani live in Lviv, Ukraine.
Our top story this hour. CNN crews in Kyiv have reported a busy night of multiple explosions in the capital, as air raid sirens blared through the night. And now we are learning that Russian strikes have hit a residential building, yet another one not far from the city center. Kyiv is now under a strict curfew until Thursday morning.
The mayor says that residents will only be allowed to leave their homes if they have a special permit or if they are headed to a bomb shelter.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will address U.S. lawmakers in the coming hours. He is expected to ask them for more help, including additional weapons for Ukraine and a no-fly zone. Something that as many of you know, the U.S. and NATO have ruled out so far. And
And CNN has learned that the American president, Joe Biden, is expected to announce even more security aid after Zelenskyy's speech. The White House also announced Tuesday that Mr. Biden would travel to Europe next week to meet with world leaders and discuss Russia's invasion.
On Tuesday, several European leaders traveled in person into Ukraine on a train meeting with Mr. Zelenskyy and reaffirming their support for Ukraine's fight. Ukraine's president said their visit sends a powerful message.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, PRESIDENT OF UKRAINE (through translator): I would like to thank you for what you are doing during such a difficult time. Your help is greatly appreciated. These ambassadors of wonderful independent European countries have come to Ukraine during a full- scale invasion of our country by the Russian federation. You do not fear anything.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GORANI: Well, former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko says that Russia's president has underestimated a lot about Ukraine including the unity of the Ukrainian people. Now faced with losing everything they have -- they have, every day citizens are coming together to stand against the invasion.
CNN's Ivan Watson reports.
IVAN WATSON, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice over): Dawn breaks over the city of Vinnytsia with an air raid siren. The ground war has yet to reach the city in central Ukraine but locals aren't taking any chances. This is the entrance to a village on the outskirts of the city, a checkpoint protected by volunteers, an ex- cop, a fireman, and then electricity.
Look at how this village is protecting itself. Homemade tank traps, which the locals call hedgehogs. They've sewn netting and put-up sandbags. And around the wall here of this checkpoint, they have got boxes of Molotov cocktails ready. This is all locally made. These are improvised defenses. And this is just one Ukrainian village.
Just down the road I meet Nina Chutalyuk (Ph) who seems like a sweet 71-year-old grandmother.
But by the way, Nina says that if she saw Vladimir Putin, she would strangle him with her own hands right now.
"I'm ready," she says. "If by God the Russians come here, I'll shoot them all and my hands won't even shake. I will throw grenades at them."
There is seething anger here at Moscow's invasion. And at the same time, examples of tremendous generosity.
Stack inside of a garage, humanitarian assistance trucked in from Europe, personal donations of clothes and food for the struggling people of Ukraine. Aid that will then be shipped off to frontline cities.
VLADYSLAV KYRVESHKO, DISTRICT HEAD, VINNYTSIA CITY TERRITORIAL COMMUNITY: I want to say thank you for the rest of the world. I want to say that we need help. We need, and we will need help.
WATSON: Is Vinnytsia ready if the Russian military --
KYRVESHKO: Yes.
WATSON: -- comes to the city?
KYRVESHKO: Yes. And other cities give us time. We have two weeks to make a good defense. Today we will be ready. But we don't want this.
WATSON: The war effort extends to Vasily Dmitrievic (Ph) and his farm, where workers labor listening to news of the war.
[03:35:02]
Vasily (Ph) donates free food to self defense forces. Vasily Dmitrievic (Ph) says he's doing his part to help with the war effort. He says he is planting more crops and he is going to try to grow more food to feed Ukrainians who may be in need in the weeks and months ahead.
One of Vladimir Putin's stated objectives for his war on Ukraine was to demilitarize the country. Instead, he has mobilized farmers, grandmothers and electricians to form a grassroots resistance against the Russian invasion.
Ivan Watson, CNN, outside Vinnytsia, Ukraine.
GORANI: That does it for me in Lviv, Ukraine. I'll turn it over to Rosemary Church in Atlanta.
ROSEMARY CHURCH, CNN ANCHOR: Thanks so much, Hala, for that reporting. I appreciate it.
Well, instead of denouncing Russia, China doubles down on the ties that bind them together. After the break, we will look at how Presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping forge their bond with no limits.
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CHURCH: Welcome back, everyone.
Well, Beijing says it will continue its economic relationship with Russia despite threats from the United States. On Tuesday, a spokesperson for the Chinese foreign ministry said his country shares mutual respect with Russia.
Beijing has come under fire for not denouncing Russia's invasion of Ukraine actively pushing back against what officials call attempts to smear its reputation.
CNN's David Culver has more now from Shanghai.
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DAVID CULVER, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice over): Beijing fighting back against the U.S. warnings not to help Russia and its invasion of Ukraine. Today, a foreign ministry spokesperson strongly urging the United States not to undermine China's legitimate rights and interests when dealing with U.S.-Russia relations. Adding, China and Russia will continue to conduct normal economic trade cooperation, but might that cooperation soon include military support.
JUDE BLANCHETTE, FREEMAN CHAIR IN CHINA STUDIES, CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES: Beijing would think of this is a tightrope walk, but I think that from the perspective of most external observers, they see Beijing as really being an active support for Moscow.
CULVER: While both Beijing and the Kremlin denies that Russia made a request for aid, sources say that Russia has asked China for drones and prepackaged military food kits, or MREs. In a seven-hour meeting Monday in Rome China's top diplomat, Yang Jiechi, told U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan that China wants peace and could serve as a mediator, adding that Beijing is also providing emergency humanitarian aid to Ukraine.
ZHANG XIN, DEPUTY DIRECTOR, CENTER FOR RUSSIAN STUDIES, EAST CHINA NORMAL UNIVERSITY: Chinese governments are juggling between several different goals and trying to be friends with all parties involved.
CULVER: China is already Russia's biggest trading partner and likely the only superpower that could help slow Russia's economic freefall. About three weeks before the invasion, President Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin announced an energy deal totaling about $100 billion. Including construction of a new gas pipeline.
Beijing also agreed to purchase $100 million of oil from Russia over the next 10 years. Then there's agriculture, the same week the west launch severe economic sanctions on Russia, Beijing announced details of a new wheat deal, expanding imports from all regions of Russia. It adds to what was an already massive surge in Russia-China trade.
Chinese state media says that in 2021, trade between the two jumped $150 billion over the previous year and includes Russian seed oil, barley and beef. Every dollar counts when you are losing customers as quickly as Russia.
And as the west cuts Russian banks out of the dollar denominated SWIFT system, Russia could look to settle its trade debts with China using Chinese currency instead. Though some analysts believe all of China's potential economic relief efforts still won't be enough to back fill the massive void in Russia left by western nations.
And with China's Russian trade volume dwarfed by Beijing's deals with the E.U. and the U.S., the economic risks might be too great for China.
BLANCHETTE: It is doing deep significant harm to China's interests to attach itself to the burning and sinking ship that is Vladimir Putin. China has backed the wrong horse.
CULVER: But with a stated willingness to mediate the crisis, China appears to still be straddling how best to keep its economic ties to the west without abandoning its ideological allegiance to a fellow autocracy. David Culver, CNN, Shanghai.
CHURCH: And earlier, I spoke with Jamie Metzl. He served on the U.S. National Security Council and at the State Department. He was also the deputy staff director of the U.S. Senate committee on foreign relations when it was chaired by then Senator Joe Biden. He says that China has effectively given the greenlight to Russian President Vladimir Putin to invade Ukraine. And Russia is now testing how much the country can rely on Beijing. Take a listen.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
JAMIE METZL, U.S GEOPOLITICAL COMMENTATOR: It is really difficult to understand, but you can get that China sees the United States as its main strategic enemy in the world.
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And on February 4th, China and Russia signed an agreement, a partnership where they said that there was no limit to what they would do together in the world. And now that is being tested. And if China does end up sending arms to the Russians to use in Ukraine, that would shift China from an accomplice in the invasion to a full co-combatant. And I hope that the Chinese government is taking that possibility very seriously.
CHURCH: And of course, it's worth pointing out that China has not yet condemned Putin's deadly invasion. But if the country, if China goes ahead and assists Russia with drones and other military aid, how should NATO respond to that?
METZL: Certainly, we should begin a process of a leading toward a very full decoupling, economic decoupling with China. We live in a world today where we are seeing there is a very significant difference between the way that free and open societies function, and the way that authoritarian societies function.
And what this crisis has shown us we in the free world are too reliant on goods or products or trade from the authoritarian world. That is going to create a vulnerability not just for us but for others around the world. That China makes the strategic choice to be all in with brutality, with genocide, with human rights violations around the world, whether Xinjiang, Tibet, Ukraine. There has to be consequences and we have to think about what is the kind of world we like to build and who are the partners we'd like to build it with.
CHURCH: And Jamie, when you and I spoke last week, you said that Chinese President Xi would could end this war in Ukraine immediately with just one telephone call to Russia's President Putin.
As a result, I received a lot of reaction to that on social media as I'm sure you did, too. Many rejecting the possibility that China's leader had that control over Putin. What would you say to those who just can't wrap their minds around the possibility that China's leader does have that level of influence over President Putin? METZL: Well, first, there is just no possibility that Presidents Xi
and Putin signed the February 4th agreement saying there were no limits to their partnership two weeks before the invasion of Ukraine and the possibility of an invasion of Ukraine wasn't discussed. As a matter of fact, the agreement between China and Russia was the greenlight that Putin needed to know that he could take this aggressive step and China would have its back.
If China announced that it no longer had Russia's back and was no longer supporting this brutal attack on the people of Ukraine, then Russia would have absolutely no choice but to withdraw. It's the possibility of future trade with China and future support from China that is giving President Putin the ability to move forward.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
CHURCH: Jaime Metzl talking to me earlier there.
Still to come, Russia could soon be headed for a default on its foreign debt. A look at why just ahead.
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CHURCH: Welcome back, everyone. Well, official interest rates in the United States are widely expected to rise by a quarter point on Wednesday but the big unknown is how many rate increases the Federal Reserve is planning for the rest of the year. With inflation at a 40- year high, analysts say that the Fed could announce up to seven rate hikes for the year.
Well, crushing western sanctions, a crumbling economy and now Russia could be on the brink of a foreign debt default. Moscow is due to pay $117 million in interest payments on government bonds today. But it has warned those payments may come in rubles, not U.S. dollars.
CNN's Anna Stewart explains why that's a problem.
ANNA STEWART, CNN REPORTER: Russia hasn't failed to pay back international investors of its sovereign debt that since the Bolshevik Revolution over a century ago. Now it might not just be a lack of willingness to pay back investors from countries that Russia now deems unfriendly. It may not be able to do so.
One of the rounds of western sanctions targeted its central bank. And that essentially means that around half of Russia's foreign reserves are frozen. That's around $315 billion. Now that is why Russia says it can only repay creditors in rubles. That is the local currency and it has lost around half of its value against the dollar this year.
That sort of volatility doesn't just make the ruble less attractive for investors, using it to repay this debt would be considered a default and here's why. Moscow is due to pay $117 million in interest payments on dollar-denominated government bonds Wednesday. Now although Russia has issued bonds that can be repaid in multiple currencies since 2018, these payments must be made in U.S. dollars only.
These interest payments do come with a 30-day grace period but credit ratings agencies could declare Russia to be in default before that period ends if Moscow makes clear that it doesn't intend to pay. Now the potential consequences of a default are unclear.
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Economists say that the market is already prepared for the default scenarios so financial shocks should be limited. And while there is some concern that western banks that have lent to Russia could suffer, the IMF says that a default would be unlikely to cause a financial crisis.
However, if the Russian government defaults on its debt, it is possible that Russian companies follow suit. And they own international banks more than $121 billion. That's according to the Bank for International Settlements.
Now for Russia, the main cost of a default on sovereign debt is being locked out of capital markets and facing high costs for borrowing money overseas. But of course, due to sanctions, they already are.
Anna Stewart, CNN, London.
CHURCH: And thank you so much for your company. I'm Rosemary Church. Our breaking news coverage continues next with Max Foster.
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