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U.S. Assessment: Russia Running Low On Air-Launched Cruise Missiles; Oscars Producers To Respectfully Acknowledge Ukraine War; U.S. Works To Help Wean Europe Off From Russian Gas And Oil; Moody's Economist: Recession Risks Are Uncomfortably High; Tribute To Ukrainian People And Their Fight For Survival. Aired 3:30-4p ET

Aired March 25, 2022 - 15:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[15:30:00]

VICTOR BLACKWELL, CNN HOST: Where the U.S. says Russia has 22 warships off shore. In the past few days Ukraine has updated its wish list of military assistance and now says it needs hundred more missiles than previously requested. The new request totals 500 antitank missiles, 500 antiaircraft missiles per day. Ukraine says it could face a weapons shortage. And according to the U.S., so could Russia. Intelligence assessment says Putin forces are running low on air launched cruise missiles.

Let's bring in now William Cohen, former secretary of defense under President Clinton and a former Republican Senator. Mr. Secretary, welcome back. Let's start with this updated request from the Ukrainian military. A thousand missiles a day. Is it likely that Western allies and NATO will meet that request?

WILLIAM COHEN, FORMER SECRETARY OF DEFENSE UNDER PRESIDENT CLINTON: I think they should. We should give him whatever he is requesting at this point that we have been supplying with. More of the same. He is inflicting considerable damage on the Russian soldiers to the extent that he running out of ammunition, we ought to give him the ammunition.

BLACKWELL: Let me get your analysis on two separate bits of reporting. One coming from our Barbara Starr at the Pentagon in which she speaks with a senior U.S. defense official who says, Russians are at least for the moment not pursuing a ground defensive toward Kyiv. Still airstrikes but not moving on the ground toward the capital. Also, we've heard from a Russian military official that the focus now is the liberation of Donbas. The Luhansk peoples republic, Donetsk as well. What's your take on now -- this seems like a shift their grounds strategy?

COHEN: Well, it appears that their policy you had Gen. Picard, I believe on earlier. And he suggested that the Russians are pausing in order to reorganize and regroup or get fresh ammunition. Whatever the reason they are pausing, this is a real opportunity I think for the Ukrainian military to go after them. Because they're not moving forward. They are digging in. They become much more vulnerable to an offense or a counter offense carried out by the Ukrainians. As far as what they are doing in Donbas, they are trying to solidify

their rule there. They are clearly dominant in the region for the time being. But again, if we continue to give President Zelenskyy the kind of ammunition that he's looking for, that may help turn tides there.

It's as if Putin, although he's closely associated with China now has never studied Sun Tzu. Sun Tzu warned, he said, if you're going to go into battle, know yourself and you'll win half the time. Know your enemy and you win half the time. If you know neither, you'll lose 100 percent of the time.

This is what is happening in terms of the Russians right now. They didn't know themselves. They didn't know the Ukrainians. And now they're finding themselves face-to-face with an adversary that has more will to fight than they do.

So, we are doing whatever we can to help the Ukrainians but again, I heard the recommendation could be established a no-fly zone or humanitarian zone. The question is would we be doing it ourselves or with our allies and what would the American people say who are united behind us now, should we get involved and start suffering losses. Would they have the same commitment to the operations they do now? That's something that we really have to take into account.

BLACKWELL: Yes, and how do you get out after your get in? That a reference to a people's republic. That of course, the Russian generals reference not mine or anyone else in the West. Let me ask you about the endgame here, Mr. Secretary. If there is to be a negotiated end to this war, the Ukrainians have said that they will need legal security guarantees.

Not the assurances that they received as part of the Budapest memo back in '94 when they gave up their nuclear weapons. And those security guarantees would likely mean a commitment of U.S. forces if there is some signing of an agreement to end this war. Is that something that the U.S., the U.K. would likely sign onto, a commitment of U.S. forces if Russia were to cross that border again?

COHEN: It's hard for me to understand how the Russians would be willing to accept the presence of the United States and NATO allies to defend what will be left and carved out from what the Russians occupy now and to have U.S. forces on their border in Ukraine if they are going to have the Donbas or keep what they have.

It's hard for me to understand after going through all of this, to say, well, that's acceptable. I would want it from President Zelenskyy point of view, I would want to have as much commitment from the West as possible.

[15:35:00]

Saying, I never want to have to go through this again. And we have to do what we can to make sure it doesn't happen again.

What Putin -- he's basically an arsonist who has set a fire into a home filled with innocent people and he's threatening to burn down the neighborhood if you try to put the fire out. We can't really accept that and I don't think Zelenskyy is ever going to accept that. And so, I don't have a clear-cut solution that would be in line.

But I think he needs all the security he's going to have assuming he's going to remain nonaligned with NATO but is a neutral position such as some other countries in the region.

BLACKWELL: Let me ask you about the other houses in this neighborhood. We know there's are these tiger teams that are trying to figure out what could be the response if Putin were to order use of a biological, chemical, nuclear weapon in Ukraine. If there is potentially the use of that weapon and there is some spillover. Some radioactive draft. Some impact on Poland, Romania is that enough to trigger Article 5? Does that qualify as an attack on a NATO country?

COHEN: I think it depends. But I would say if you cross that nuclear thresholds, you are inviting a much wider war involving other nations. That's something that has not been done since World War II. It should not be done now. And I think he at that point, may very well be inviting a much bigger war than he has on his hands now.

Former Defense Secretary William Cohen, thank you, sir.

Vladimir Putin just complained about cancel culture and tried to compare Russia to J.K. Rowling, the Harry Potter author. She is not having it. That story is next.

[15:40:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLACKWELL: A 14-year-old boy fell to his death from a new drop tower amusement park ride in Orlando. Authorities said it happened on the free fall attraction at the city's ICON Park entertainment complex. Family members say that Tyre Sampson was an honor roll student and an aspiring football player from St. Louis.

His father said he was visiting Orlando with his football team over spring break. Now what we've learned from investigators is they're trying to determine how he fell off the ride. It's billed as the world's tallest free standing drop tower. A statement from ICON Park says, it's cooperating with investigators.

The CDC reports COVID-19 case cases across the U.S. may be going down but flu infections are going up. This new report that states that after nearly nonexistent levels last year, the weekly number of flu related hospital admissions have increased for the past seven weeks for a total of 32,000 hospitalizations. There had been three million illnesses and 1,800 deaths.

These numbers are still lower than usual. But health experts say Mid- March is an unusual time for flu to be on the rise. Because is typically the time when the season winds down. Now they say this up to could mean a surge is coming or it may be tied to people moving their mask as they resume normal activities. The highest levels are seen in the central and southcentral regions of the country. Harry Potter author J.K. Rowling is now responding to Russian

President Vladimir Putin today after he compared the international condemnation on Russia's invasion to backlash that Rowling faced.

She tweeted: Critiques of Western cancel culture are possibly not best made by those currently slaughtering civilians for the crime of resistance, or who jail and poisoned their critics.

Earlier today Putin claimed the West was trying to cancel Russia. Rowling has been criticized for her past comments on gender identity.

Hollywood glamour returns this Sunday after a prolonged delay with the 94th Academy Awards. Producers of this year's Oscar say the show will not ignore the devastation happening in Europe and that the broadcast will respectfully acknowledge the war in Ukraine. Here's CNN Stephanie Elam.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

STEPHANIE ELAM, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice over): Red carpet glamour, and a world away from the war in Ukraine.

BRIAN COX, ACTOR: Really, really awful what's happening.

ELAM (voice over): But Hollywood isn't ignoring the humanitarian crisis this awards season.

MICHAEL DOUGLAS, ACTOR: We're getting a great lesson and reminder about what true democracies are about.

ELAM (voice over): Heavy hitters like Michael Douglas and Lin Manuel Miranda showing their support for the blue and yellow while on the red carpet.

And at least one star protesting in the street.

JAVIER BARDEM, BEST ACTOR NOMINEE: In my humble opinion, it's better to support the idea of a peaceful resolution.

ELAM (voice over): Best Actor Nominee Javier Bardem telling CNN he joined protesters at Madrid Russian Embassy to demonstrate his support outside of Hollywood.

BARDEM: It's very delicate to say anything when you are having a beautiful, safe life and a safe environment.

ELAM (voice over): Set to present at the Oscars is Ukrainian-born actress Mila Kunis.

MILA KUNIS, ACTRESS: Today, I have never been more proud to be a Ukrainian.

ELAM (voice over): She and husband Ashton Kutcher have raised $30 million for Ukrainian refugees.

KUNIS: This is just the beginning to a very, very, very long journey. ELAM (voice over): With widespread support for Ukraine, insiders say this Academy Awards will likely be different than the Trump years, when the politics were more divisive.

[15:45:00]

MATTHEW BELLONI, PUCK NEWS, FOUNDING PARTNER: If the stars get up and start talking about Ukraine, it might be a way for people to rally behind them. That the politics element of the show won't be divisive, it will be uniting.

COX: The president of Ukraine was a comic. You know, he was a wonderful comic performer.

ELAM (voice over): "Succession" star Brian Cox with the most dramatic speech so far at the Screen Actor Guilds Awards, calling for support of Russian artists who are at risk if they condemn the war.

COX: And I think we should really join and celebrating them and hoping that they can actually make a shift, as I believe they can.

ELAM: But the Oscars won't be all serious with three comedians hosting. Wanda Sykes, Amy Schumer and Regina Hall. Producer Will Packard telling "Vanity Fair," quote, I want this to be an escape.

In Hollywood, I'm Stephanie Elam.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BLACKWELL: Thank you, Stephanie.

There are growing concerns that the Russian invasion could tip the U.S. into a recession. We'll have more on that, next.

[15:50:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLACKWELL: Today President Biden announced a joint task force with the European Commission. The goal is to reduce Europe's dependence on Russian oil and gas. And officials say the point is to deprive Vladimir Putin of the profits used to, quote, drive his war machine. And the U.S. is working to send 15 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas to help wean Europe off Russian energy. CNN's Matt Egan is here. So Matt, what's the carryover? The impact potentially on the U.S. gas prices.

MATT EGAN, CNN REPORTER: Well, Victor, I don't think America is going to have to pay more to heat their homes or pay more for natural gas in general. That's really because the United States has already maxed out how much natural gas it can send overseas. We really can't send anymore because there is not enough infrastructure for it. And it takes years to build that infrastructure.

The other thing is that the United States is the largest natural gas producer on the planet. And unlike with oil, the U.S. actually, consumes less than it actually produces. So, there is enough to send it overseas.

Now the goal is to really wean Europe off Russian energy. And that is very significant because in 2020, more than a third of Europe's natural gas came from Russia. About a quarter of its oil came from Russia.

The other goal here, of course, is to punish Russia's economy. The energy is a huge business for them. 43 percent of Russia's annual revenue came from oil and natural gas, and the U.S. is essentially trying to take away their best customer.

BLACKWELL: OK, so no residual impact potentially here on the U.S. Let me ask but this new analysis from Moody's and a grim outlook for the U.S.

EGAN: Yes, I talked to Mark Zandi, the chief economist over at Moody's analytics and he said that he thinks that a recession risk in the United States are uncomfortably high and going higher. What is that mean? He thinks there's about a one in three chance of a recession in the United States. That is alarming, especially because this recovery is not even two years old.

The big concern is inflation related to the war in Ukraine, and that the Federal Reserve is really going to have to step up its fight against inflation. That means raising interest rates more rapidly. Citigroup calling for four straight interest rate hikes, big hikes from the Federal Reserve by 1/2 a percentage point. We haven't seen anything like that since 1994.

The concern is that, you know, the more they do hear, the bigger the impact on the economy. We're already seeing that play out in the mortgage market. Mortgage rates have gone up very sharply. Six months ago, 2.9 percent, as you can see, going straight up. Almost 4.5 percent. That means it's going to be more expensive to buy a home. Breaking that down for you, the average monthly item that a 350,000 house is $243 higher today than it was six months ago. I think if you extrapolate that out across the economy, you can see how this plays out.

All right, Matt Egan, thank you.

EGAN: Thanks.

BLACKWELL: President Biden tells American troops in Poland what happens in the Ukraine war will go well beyond its borders for generations. CNN's breaking news coverage of the president's European trip continues.

[15:55:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLACKWELL: This week, CNN heroes are the Ukrainian people. We have all been inspired by their strength and courage and resistance in this fight for their survival. To John Legend's never break, we share this tribute. (BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I came to volunteer because we know that it's our home here.

JOHN LEGEND, NEVER BREAK: We got a good thing baby whenever life is hard, we'll never lose our way because we both know who we are. Who knows about tomorrow we don't know what is in the stars I just know I'll always follow the light in your heart. I'm not worried about you ...

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It's a full-fledged war, and in a very difficult situation, we will resist and we will continue to resist.

LEGEND: We will never break, we will never break, build on our foundation, strong enough to stay we will never break ...

VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT (translated text): Because our weapon is truth, and out truth is that this is our land, our country. This what I wanted to tell you. Glory to Ukraine!

LEGEND: ... we will never.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

[16:00:00]

BLACKWELL: So many of our viewers have already contributed to humanitarian efforts that support Ukraine. The total is now more than $6.6 million. If you would like to find out how you can help, and to watch the full salute to the Ukrainian people, go to CNNheroes.com

"THE LEAD" with Jake Tapper starts now.