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Biden Says, Vladimir Putin Cannot Remain in Power; Refugees in Poland Describe Escaping Horrific Conditions; Ukraine Says, At Least Five Injured After Missile Strike Lviv. Aired 11p-12a ET

Aired March 26, 2022 - 23:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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[23:00:00]

KRISTIE LU STOUT, CNN HOST: Hello and welcome to our viewers around the world and in the United States. I'm Kristie Lu Stout in Hong Kong.

U.S. President Joe Biden wrapped up his trip to Europe with a blunt declaration that Vladimir Putin needs to go. The shockingly candid remark came at the very end of the president's speech in Warsaw and provoked a response from the Kremlin. Now, the White House quickly clarified that Mr. Biden was not calling for regime change in Moscow.

The president's trip to NATO's eastern flank aimed to rally democratic allies to support Ukraine as it defends its territory from the month old Russian invasion and here is how the president summed it up.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOE BIDEN, U.S. PRESIDENT: We stand with you, period.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

STOUT: Even as Mr. Biden was in Poland, Russian missiles struck another fuel facility, this time in Lviv, that's not far from the Polish border. And Ukrainian forces claim that they have recaptured several small towns from the Russians, including this village near the Russian border. A new video purports to show the Ukrainians attacking Russian troops, holed up inside a school.

Now, Mr. Biden's speech also pushed back against how Russia has tried to frame the war from the get-go. Now, the U.S. President described it as part of a larger battle between democracies and autocracies, and urged democratic nations to prepare for a long fight on that front.

Phil Mattingly has more from Warsaw.

PHIL MATTINGLY, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: President Biden wrapped up his trip to Europe with a very clear idea in mind. He wanted to deliver a message, a forceful message, a message that could be read by any number of people, whether the Ukrainians, Russian President Vladimir Putin, or the world, but one that underscored the stakes of the moment, the urgency of the moment. And the fact that, at least in President Biden's view, this is not just a singular moment but something much bigger, making comparisons in his remarks to the Soviet Union and its fall, the Berlin wall, the iron curtain, and how the west and in particular Eastern Europe where he was standing in Poland specifically rose up, were able to fight back with the support of western democracies.

It's that support, it's the unification of those western democracies that the president is so keen on keeping together. Certainly we've seen it over the course of the last month. White House officials know it is fragile, particularly as domestic pain on the economic front is likely to increase in the weeks and months ahead.

However, it was one line in particular that the president laid out, one line that wasn't scripted at all, that got the most attention from the speech. Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BIDEN: A dictator bent on rebuilding an empire will never erase the people's love for liberty. Brutality will never grind down the will to be free. Ukraine will never be a victory for Russia, for free people refusing to live in a world of hopelessness and darkness. We will have a different future, a brighter future rooted in democracy and principle, hope and light, decency and dignity, freedom and possibilities. For God's sake, this man cannot remain in power.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: It was the last line that was not in the prepared remarks, was not scripted, and White House officials moved very quickly to walk it back and make clear the president was not calling for regime change.

But the president's view on President Putin has grown increasingly caustic and dark over the course of the last several weeks. He's called him a war criminal and he's called him a butcher. It is very clear where the president stands, the White House a little more cautious. But the overarching message is very clear, something the president wanted to hammer home before he left Europe, particularly given the moment where White House officials and European officials alike.

Now, there is no near-term end to the crisis that has torn apart Ukraine over the last month.

Phil Mattingly, CNN, Warsaw.

STOUT: And for analysis of Mr. Biden's speech, we are joined now by CNN's European Affairs Commentator Dominic Thomas joining us live from Paris. Dominic, good to see you.

This was a sweeping address by the U.S. president on the Russian invasion. Yes, there was that one unscripted line in particular that got the most attention and we will get to that in a moment, but, overall, Dominic, what did you take away from this speech? [23:05:01]

DOMINIC THOMAS, CNN EUROPEAN AFFAIRS COMMENTATOR: The really important thing was that President Biden made the trip, that his feet were on the ground, that he met in person with European leaders, NATO leaders, traveled to Poland, met with displaced peoples, and was able to experience that emotion of the -- and tension around this absolutely crucial moment, the reaffirmation of the multilateral order, of the importance of NATO, an organization which, let's not forget, former President Trump has described as being obsolete. All of those together were absolutely crucial.

That what for me was one of the most important moments in this speech, and it was a departure from the state of the union address just a few weeks ago was the way in which he explained to people the importance of fighting for these democratic principles and that we have to steel ourselves for the long fight ahead.

In other words, that these principles involve all of us. They are principles that are worth fighting for and a dynamic process and things that one wakes up for every single day thinking about, just hearing the president say that, those words, reassuring people, was absolutely crucial, Kristie.

STOUT: Yes. President Biden's emphasis on principles and his presence speaking volumes. We have got to talk about the unscripted remark he made about Vladimir Putin saying that he cannot remain in power. It is a focus of a lot of attention today.

If we assume that that was a slip, that that was an unforced error if you will, what will the cost be?

THOMAS: The cost is enormous. The first of it is that it is a huge distraction and because, obviously, this is what everybody is talking about right now rather than, unfortunately, talking about the sort of the substance of the speech.

The problem is the way in which the Russian president can recuperate, instrumentalize, and use this in his propagandist machine. Ultimately, a threat against the Russian leader is a threat against Russia itself. And the unfortunate aspect is that President Putin will be able to use this to justify this conflict, this unjustifiable incursion into Ukraine. And, unfortunately, it shifts away from what was otherwise a very successful, very important, and even historic trip.

STOUT: Words have power. Words can impose a cost. And in light of that, let's go back to Biden's speech when he called Vladimir Putin the butcher. President Biden had already called Putin an autocrat, a tyrant, a war criminal. Now, he is calling him a butcher. How unusual is it again to call out a head of state in such a way but also the impact of these words? Is this just name calling or will it lead to justice?

THOMAS: Well, will it lead to justice? This is what the coalition and the reaffirmation of this multilateral order are absolutely remaining unambiguously committed to. And the fact that this incursion will not go beyond the Ukraine into NATO territory, not by a single inch, as President Biden underscored, is absolutely crucial.

The difference between the name calling and the actual sort of invocation that there is a possibility of leadership change are two very different things. They were unfortunate statements. They've been downplayed by the State Department and by the White House. But, unfortunately, they have left a shadow over this particular trip and they are words which President Putin, of course, pays very close attention to and will, unfortunately, be able to instrumentalize.

So, I think it is crucial that the conversation and the discussion move back to the substance of the speech to what President Biden attempted to achieve and this remarkable coming together of European leaders who have been so distracted over the past few years because of Brexit, because of President Trump, and far right matters, that they can now focus on the business ahead, which is to defend these principles in mainland Europe.

STOUT: And Biden also met with refugees. He met with Ukrainian refugees. How important is his empathy in terms of a message to the world?

THOMAS: Absolutely crucial. And I cannot help but think that that contact with people on the ground had an emotional, real life impact on President Biden and can be partially used to explain the impassioned speech that he gave, the fact that he moved off the particular script, that when you think that in the country, you know, of Ukraine, one-quarter of the population has had to uproot and move. These are displaced people in extraordinarily difficult kind of circumstances.

And to draw attention to what President Putin is doing and what the impact has been on this country that has aspirations to achieve democratic principles, to build a closer relationship to Western Europe, and to the values that that geographic space represents was absolutely crucial that President Biden was there and able to do that.

[23:10:07]

STOUT: I also wanted to get your perspective on how Americans were taking in this moment for their U.S. president in Europe. To what degree were Americans listening in, hearing out what President Biden had to say and taking in why this fight is worth it?

THOMAS: I think this trip abroad was an opportunity to bring media attention to President Biden, not just talking about it, as he had done during the State of the Union Address, where, of course, juxtaposing autocrats with democrats and so on and so forth is absolutely crucial.

But making that trip, being there on the ground, having the media extensively cover each and every one of those visits with the troops, going to Poland, which is, of course, crucial, meeting with displaced people and refugees, all of those are aiming to sensitize the public to why what is happening in Ukraine today is crucial and important to the United States. These are values that are crucial to Americans and promoting their understanding is what a leader and international leader must absolutely underscore on a daily basis.

STOUT: Dominic, we always appreciate your insight. Dominic Thomas, thank you so much.

Now, we want to take you to Lviv, in Western Ukraine, where a fire is raging at a field depot after it was hit by Russian missiles. And CNN's Phil Black is there.

PHIL BLACK, CNN CORRESPONDENT: It was around 4:30 local time Saturday afternoon that the war in Ukraine finally came here to the western city of Lviv. And this is the immediate aftermath. This is where there were a series of explosions heard across the city.

You could see that huge black column of smoke spreading across the city. It is not just the column of smoke that is huge, the flames really significant. And down there, you can see there are fire crews desperately trying to fight them.

It seems like, frankly, an insufficient effort. The hoses that you can see being targeted into those flames look very small by comparison. Those flames are still burning ferociously and look like they are set to do so for sometime.

What is extraordinary is that this is very much within the city limits of Lviv. It is very close to homes. It is a residential area very nearby some high rise, lots of houses, just to the left a huge shopping center. This is clearly part of a very specific targeted campaign and tactic by the Russians, because in the last couple of days, a number of fuel depots in different locations across the country have been knocked out by their cruise missiles often launched from naval vessels, we believe, in the Black Sea.

Late last week, there was a big fuel depot near Kyiv. Just today earlier on Saturday, they announced that they hit another one near Mykolaiv, now here in far Western Ukraine, in the Lviv.

Phil Black, CNN, Lviv, Western Ukraine.

STOUT: You're watching CNN Newsroom. Still to come how a former retail store has become a stopover helping Ukrainians fleeing Russia's war.

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[23:15:00]

STOUT: Welcome back. Now safe in Poland, refugees are describing horrific conditions brought on by Russia's war against Ukraine.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

OLHA MOLIBOHA, FLED CHERNIHIV, UKRAINE: People have nowhere to live. All infrastructures destroyed. There is no water, no electricity, nothing. But our people are like this. They will simply start defending themselves. We will defend ourselves to the last as long as we are alive.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

STOUT: According to the U.N., more than 3.7 million people now have fled to safety in other countries since the war began.

And while in Poland, President Biden met with Ukrainian refugees at the national stadium carrying a Ukrainian girl in his arms and offering comfort to the displaced.

But reaching safety is often a perilous journey.

CNN's Ivan Watson is at an evacuation weigh station in Zaporizhzhia as Ukrainians desperately try to flee the fighting.

IVAN WATSON, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Volunteers are putting the sign, lyudi, that means people, on the side of a bus. They are hoping to be able to go to the besieged Russian port city of Mariupol to help evacuate people.

The parking lot of this Ukrainian super store has become an unofficial gateway for evacuees fleeing the combat zone. You see cars that have made the dangerous journey with homemade signs here that say, deti, that means children.

And the name of the city that is being battered by Russian forces, Mariupol, there. Here you see a van that has the word evacuation written on the windshield. And then you can also that see some people are tying little white flags and rags on their cars. These are all desperate attempts to try to protect civilians from coming under fire from the combatants that are arrayed in the nearby country side.

This super store has been turned into a support center for newly arrived evacuees from the warzone. So, there are lots of donated clothing for people who perhaps had to leave and didn't have enough time to pack everything they needed. They're provided with hot food and warm drinks. It is still quite cold in this part of Ukraine.

And then there's a volunteer effort here, psychological support, as well as information about how to get a ride deeper into Ukraine, into safer Ukrainian cities, also medics standing by to help people out.

And I want to point to this bulletin board, because there are postings here, for example, offering free repair of shattered windows of cars. A lot of cars we've seen have been bashed up by Russian artillery and very moving requests for information about missing loved ones.

And all of this I want to highlight is very precarious, because I'm told that the Russian military, its positions are just about a half hour's drive from where all of this is located.

[23:20:11]

Ivan watson, CNN, in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine.

STOUT: So moving to see Ukrainians help fellow Ukrainians. And as Ukrainians try to escape, even some Russians are fleeing their own country. Straight ahead, these families speak to CNN about why they decided to leave and the potential impact of Russia's brain drain.

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STOUT: Welcome back. I'm Kristie Lu Stout.

More details on our top story this hour. On Saturday, U.S. President Joe Biden delivered a fiery rebuke of Vladimir Putin just hours after Russian missiles struck Western Ukraine. Ukraine officials say at least five people were hurt. Flames and thick smoke could be seen rising from one of the attack sites in Lviv. The city is less than 75 kilometers, that's 45 miles from the Polish border.

And the attack came as Mr. Biden was in Poland wrapping up a four-day trip to Europe aimed at rallying western support for Ukraine. And he capped off his visit with a powerful and apparently unscripted condemnation of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

[23:25:00]

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BIDEN: For God's sake, this man cannot remain in power.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

STOUT: Those comments, sending shockwaves around the world, though the White House later says that Mr. Biden was not calling for regime change.

However, the U.S. president did deliver a stark warning to Mr. Putin should Russia's attacks extend beyond Ukraine's borders.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BIDEN: Don't even think about moving on one single inch of NATO territory. We have sacred obligation. We have a sacred obligation under Article 5 to defend each and every inch of NATO territory with the full force of our collective power.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

STOUT: Mr. Biden's comment about President Putin may have sounded like a step too far to some, but a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine says it could still get political traction among Russians. Listen to this.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

WILLIAM TAYLOR, FORMER U.S. AMBASSADOR TO UKRAINE: There was no doubt about what he felt. The thing that I would recognize is that the Russian people are going to hear this. The Russian people have heard President Biden talk about Putin as a thug, as a brute, as a war criminal, as a butcher. And now he has made this comment about he shouldn't be in power. So, the Russian people are going to be hearing this. And it's hard to get through to the Russian people and they're going to start figuring out that their president is doing something wrong. They're going to start figuring out this may be part of that process.

President Putin is a threat to not just Ukraine. I think President Biden made this point that Putin is a threat to Europe, is a threat to us. President Biden made the clear point that the Ukrainians are on the frontline. They're the frontline. They're fighting the Russians. They're fighting Putin. He is after them. But if he is allowed to win, and Biden said he would not win, Biden said that the Ukrainians would win, but if Putin were allowed to win, then that's a challenge to and a real threat to NATO and Europe.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

STOUT: Ambassador Taylor spoke on CNN on Saturday.

Now, U.S. President Joe Biden said on Saturday Russia is facing a remarkable brain drain as more than 200,000 Russians have left the country in the past month. Many of them are going to turkey. And some Russian families spoke to CNN's Jomana Karadsheh about why they decided to leave their home country behind.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JOMANA KARADSHEH, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice over): Baby Natasha was born in Moscow but her parents say they just can't imagine bringing her up in the country Russia has become.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We were brought out in the country who like (INAUDIBLE) the fascism. And now we are in this unspeakable evil and everyone seems to be okay with it. Not everyone, of course, but many, many people.

EGOR, RUSSIAN PHYSICIST FLED WITH HIS FAMILY: Many people.

KARADSHEH: A war they describe as immoral and illegal being waged in their name was the final straw. Earlier this month, they got on a flight out to Istanbul.

EGOR: Young people, people who had their hopes in the country, there was a significant part of them who really like this who were kind of patriotic, if you wish, that they are leaving. They see the situation. They cannot do anything more there. They need to move on even if they didn't want to before.

To me, the country continues that I don't yet see the bottom, like how deep it goes.

STOUT: Igor is a theoretical physicist, Tanya a school teacher. They are among Russia's best and brightest, the kind of people their country can ill afford to lose.

EGOR: The flight we took, it was full of people how they say in Russian just too clever to be in this country. Like you can say that, well, this could really contribute to innovation, contribute to economy, contribute also to the intellectual climate, the atmosphere of the society.

STOUT: One Russian economist estimates that more than 200,000 Russians left the country just in the first ten days of the war. And it's an ongoing exodus of many young, well-educated professionals, including I.T. specialists, journalists, and academics who have ended up in countries like Armenia, Georgia, and here in Turkey.

They're escaping a brutal crackdown against those opposing Putin's war, including the threat of a 15-year jail sentence for spreading so- called fake news about the military. Others are worried about conscription and the impact of sanctions. But some feel like they just don't belong anymore.

This couple in their 60s are both independent journalists. They asked us to conceal their identities for the safety of friends and family back home.

[23:30:04]

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I really don't understand how I can survive there. Really, many people in Russia support this politics and this is absolutely unbearable. They are brainwashed, I think. During Hitler's time, it was the same thing. People were brainwashed. Still, it is not all the population and it is important maybe to speak out.

STOUT: Staying and remaining silent was not an option, they say. With rumors of borders closing, they only had an hour to pack a small bag, leaving behind all they own, their memories, their life.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Deeply inside we are patriots. We speak Russian so our friends are Russians. We love to travel. But in any case, we are Russians. That is why it is even more complicated to make this decision. We never know if we will be able to meet all our relatives.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It is very difficult for us to restart. We are too old to restart everything new. For young people, it is easier. Still, smart people, they will find their way. For us, it will be a problem to find our place in this new world.

STOUT: A world where Russians like them now feel helpless and ashamed of a country they still proudly call home.

Jomana Karadsheh, CNN, Istanbul.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

STOUT: Joining us now is a Konstantin Sonin. He is a professor at the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy. Thank you so much for joining us.

Let's talk about the economic costs on Russia so far. A wide range of economic weapons are being used against Russia. You've got the sanctions. You have corporate boycotts. You have the freezing of Russia's foreign reserves, et cetera. What impact has all of this had on the Russian economy? KONSTANTIN SONIN, UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO HARRIS SCHOOL OF PUBLIC POLICY: This obviously had an impact. There is the exchange rate changed dramatically, the prices are skyrocketing, they have deficit, for example, there were huge lines for sugar and people were actually fighting in these lines. But at the same time, economic sanctions, corporate boycotts, they are not missiles so they do not work immediately. Inflation is high. It will be high this year. But it does not affect people immediately. They will feel it within the year.

STOUT: So far, which of these economic weapons, as it were, has been the most impactful?

SONIN: Well, I think the middle class obviously noted that McDonald's is closed in Russia. McDonald's is a middle class restaurant. People notice that some goods became unavailable. Some brands stopped their production in Russia, so there are more unemployed. These are the most visible changes.

STOUT: You just mentioned corporate boycotts. And we know a flood of companies, big brands, have withdrawn from Russia. You mentioned McDonald's. You know, in addition to McDonald's, you have Nestle, Ikea, Shell, the oil company, Starbucks, Apple, the tech giant, Boeing, et cetera, the list goes on. You can see some examples right on your screen. Is this far more than just being symbolic virtue signaling, or is this having really big implications for Russia?

SONIN: Oh, I think this is felt throughout the country because a lot of people who are watching Netflix, probably not many Russians would go to Starbucks. This is kind of a Moscow capital feature, but everyone was watching Netflix. 70 million people use Instagram. And Instagram is now blocked because it was spreading information that the Russian government considers fake news.

STOUT: Yes. And those are inconveniences for Russian consumers, but what about the Russian oil? Russian oil is still flowing. If the list of takers of Russian crude gets shorter and shorter and shorter, how is that going to be felt inside Russia?

SONIN: Right. It definitely became harder to sell Russian oil and the discounts that the Russian companies have to offer, they become steeper and steeper discounts and they will become even more steeper when more buyers refuse to buy Russian oil.

Okay. This is not directly affecting Russian people because they -- I mean, they're not selling oil. It is the government that sells oil. But, eventually, this will result in high inflation and people will have to pay more for their food.

STOUT: And as inflation rises, the economy continues to get a hit, the pain will be felt in the next few months. But would that lead to political change? Will that force Putin's hand?

SONIN: Okay. Generally, of course, when inflation gets to the worst, it is a problem for the regime. But there is no automatic relationship between the economic hardship and the regime change.

[23:35:04]

So, it is actually -- regime change might happen in, I don't know, five or ten years. So, I wouldn't count on a kind of quick reaction to the economic hardship.

STOUT: And in the meantime, could the global economy get a shock from this? How will the global economy be able to absorb the economic blow from Russia?

SONIN: There is no question that there will be a price to be paid by all the countries in the world. Probably China will benefit indeed from getting better deals from Russia because Russia now is forced to make better deals with China. But, overall, of course, the world economy will be hit. But it will not be that huge. Maybe there will be 0.5 percent of the world GDP, maybe minus 1 percent of GDP this year, but it is actually a small price to pay to defend peaceful citizens in Ukraine.

STOUT: Konstantin Sonin, we have to leave it at that, but thank you very much for joining us here on the program. Take care.

SONIN: Thank you.

STOUT: Coming up right here on CNN Newsroom, North Korea just tested its most powerful missile in years. Can American missile defense systems thwart a potential ICBM launch from Pyongyang? Will Ripley has that story just ahead.

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[23:40:00]

STOUT: Welcome back. Now, on Thursday, North Korea tested its first intercontinental ballistic missile in more than four years. It comes as some experts question whether American missile defense systems could successfully intercept an ICBM.

Will Ripley joins me with more on the story from Taipei. Will, good to see you. It is incredible, isn't it. You got the world's attention fixed on Ukraine, yet North Korea goes ahead and test fires this ICBM. Will, since the launch on thursday, what more have you learned?

WILL RIPLEY, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, it was fascinating and eye-opening and disturbing for me as an American who covers North Korea, who has covered this nuclear threat from North Korea, but I had the false impression that United States missile defense systems will be fool proof if North Korea were to launch an attack. Because they have such a small arsenal, their ICBMs are relatively rudimentary when you compare them to what's in the massive arsenals of the United States and Russia and China.

These physicists really opened my eyes because they say Americans should not feel that false sense of security. They say if North Korea launched even a relatively simple nuclear attack, there is a good chance America's missile defense systems could not shoot it down.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Three, two, one, ignition.

RIPLEY (voice over): America's missile defense system, the best and perhaps only line of defense from a North Korean nuclear missile aimed at the U.S. Now, a stunning warning from some of America's leading expert.

FREDERICK K. LAMB, PROFESSOR, UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS: If North Korea were to fire nuclear-armed ICBMs at the United States, we could not be sure that our missile system would prevent the deaths of millions of Americans.

RIPLEY: Kim Jong-un's most powerful test in almost five years, an intercontinental ballistic missile, a warning to President Biden and America, as North Korea sharpens its nuclear sword. For years, U.S. Leaders have reassured the public --

MIKE PENCE, FORMER U.S. VICE PRESIDENT: Missile defense begins here.

RIPLEY: -- and America's allies.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: -- should be very confident.

RIPLEY: Missile defense systems can keep them safe.

DONALD TRUMP, FORMER U.S. PRESIDENT: Easily shoot them out of the sky.

RIPLEY: Senior defense officials project confidence. The U.S. could also shoot down a North Korean ICBM. These experts say the odds of success are very low.

LAURA GREGOR, STANTON NUCLEAR SECURITY FELLOW, MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY: It's been described as hitting a bullet with a bullet trying to hit a warhead.

RIPLEY: For the first study of its kind in ten years commissioned by the American Physical Society, their conclusion despite more than six decades of missile defense efforts and $350 billion in U.S. taxpayer dollars, no missile defense system has been shown to be effective against realistic ICBM threats.

Why is it so hard to shoot one down an ICBM?

LAMB: The warhead would undoubtedly be accompanied by decoys, by things to fool the defense or overwhelm the defense.

RIPLEY: A fundamental problem.

PROF. JAMES D. WELLS, UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN: We do not see in the next 15 years an effective defense can be mounted against ICBMs.

RIPLEY: The current system has only been tested 19 times since 1999.

GREGO: And in those tests, they have been scripted for success. But even so, the tests have only succeeded around half the time. RIPLEY: But what about all those successful intercepts in the Middle East? What about the iron dome?

WELLS: ICBMs are a qualitatively different threat than many of the missiles that we have read about in the news and traveling significantly higher and having potential penetration aids and countermeasures.

RIPLEY: CNN reached out to the U.S. Missile Defense Agency. When asked about the report's findings, a spokesman cited this defense report from January. It says, the missile defense system has demonstrated a measure of capability to defend the United States, deploy forces and allies from a rogue nation's missile attack and that its most advanced radar will be able to separate the warhead from a cloud of decoys.

U.S. think tank CSIS says these images show an undeclared North Korean missile base just miles from the Chinese border, a potential launch site for ICBMs.

JOSEPH YUN, FORMER U.S. SPECIAL ENVOY TO NORTH KOREA: We need to understand there is no military solution.

RIPLEY: This former U.S. Ambassador and Special Envoy to North Korea Joseph Yun believes the only option is for President Biden to take a page from the playbook of former President Trump and reach out directly to Kim Jong-un.

YUN: The longer this situation continues, more serious will the provocations be.

RIPLEY: He says diplomacy may be the only way to keep the missiles from flying, to keep America safe.

[23:45:05]

(END VIDEOTAPE)

RIPLEY (on camera): History show us, Kristie, diplomacy between the United States and North Korea is extremely difficult. But is as difficult as shooting a bullet with another bullet, trying to shoot down a nuclear warhead if there were some sort of an escalation, is that wager that the American public would want to take? Kristie, I think that's the question that many have to ask themselves.

STOUT: It was really chilling hearing from the expert you interviewed, describing this as difficult to shooting another bullet. But Kim Jong- un keeps on doing this. He keeps testing and testing and gaining more expertise each time. But would North Korea ever actually use these weapons?

RIPLEY: All my trips to the country, Kristie, the conversations I've had with them about their nuclear arsenal, they say they don't want to use them. They say it is deterrence, just like the United States and Russia and China have these massive nuclear arsenals to deter each other from launching an attack. It's called mutually deterrence of destruction. North Korea knows if they were to launch a nuke at the United States, that might be the end of North Korea, as we know it. But if they felt that they were backed into a corner, if they felt that an invasion or some sort of compromise of their national sovereignty was imminent, who is to say that that button couldn't be pushed? And who is to say that that warhead might not make its target, might hit its target, an American city potentially with millions of people? This is why, you know, experts, former diplomats, even scientists say that, really, the solution here is diplomacy, the solution is to talk.

I believe the North Koreans want to do that even though they are turning down the overtures made by the Biden administration. It is because they don't want to talk at the lower level. They want President Biden to do what former President Trump did and write a letter to Kim Jong-un to show that respect at the leader level. That might be the only way that diplomacy can be kick-started is what those who have dealt closely with North Korea tell me, and I would say, I agree with that based in my own experience dealing with the North Koreans for the last seven years.

STOUT: Yes, we have to pivot to diplomacy here. Will Ripley reporting, thank you so much. Take care.

Now, this just into us, Chinese state media, they're reporting that the second black box has now been recovered from that deadly crash of a Boeing 737 on Monday. That is the flight data recorder from the China Eastern Airlines flight, the cockpit voice recorder that was recovered earlier. Officials say all 132 people on the plane died when it crashed into the mountains of Southern China's Guangxi region. The cause has not been determined.

Now, days after the Taliban administration closed secondary schools for girls, a group of women and girls took to the streets of Kabul in a rare protest.

Incredibly brave scenes here with fists and placards in the air, book in their hands, the girls and the women chanted, open the schools. It was a show of dissent against the Taliban's decision to shut schools for girls above the sixth grade. And that decision came just hours after schools in the country reopened on Wednesday.

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FATEMA, STUDENT: Unfortunately, by the advent of the Taliban, all our schools were closed. We girls are allowed to study same like boys. Islam has given us this right. But the Taliban has taken this right from us.

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STOUT: Now, the school closure drew international condemnation and the U.S. called off planned talks with the Taliban.

Membership in an Estonian women's paramilitary group has skyrocketed after the invasion of Ukraine, and we'll look at how they are preparing for any aggression. (COMMERCIAL BREAK)

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STOUT: Now, there is growing unease in parts of Europe that Russia's military ambitions won't end in Ukraine. Countries like Estonia know that too well, what it is like to be ruled by Moscow. And Estonian women are training to defend their homeland and its independence.

Lynda Kinkade has their story.

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LYNDA KINKADE, CNN ANCHOR (voice over): In rural Northern Estonia, these women are learning how to prepare for the worst.

KRISTEL ERIKS, WOMEN'S VOLUNTARY DEFENSE ORGANIZATION: If I am needed, if I need to actually fight, I will fight.

KINKADE: Age 20 to 60, these are the new recruits of the women's voluntary defense organization, part of Estonia's state-run paramilitary defense.

Since the start of the Russian invasion into Ukraine, membership has soared.

HELEN ALLAS, WOMEN'S VOLUNTARY DEFENSE ORGANIZATION: Already, over 500 out of the 2,000 have sent in their application to join the organization.

KINKADE: Estonia is among the Baltic States once controlled by Russia. But since 2004, they have been members of NATO and the European Union. Estonia's prime minister says their country feels no direct military threat from the current Russian-Ukraine conflict but these women are not convinced.

MERLE VIMB, WOMEN'S VOLUNTARY DEFENSE ORGANIZATION: I think most of us in Baltic are living right now in frightening situation because it's just not normal what's going on. And we have to prepare, I think. I -- I just can't sit and wait to see if something happens.

KINKADE: After a freezing night spent in self-built tents, these new recruits learn about rifles and bullets, how to apply camouflage, navigate in the woods and communicate over walkie-talkie readying to defend themselves and their country against violence they hope never comes.

Lynda Kinkade, CNN.

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STOUT: Now, there's been a lot of speculation about whether Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will speak to the Oscar ceremony in Hollywood Sunday by video link. The Academy Award winner Sean Penn told CNN Saturday that he understands a decision has been made not to give Mr. Zelenskyy that opportunity. And he said that would be a huge mistake.

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SEAN PENN, ACADEMY AWARD-WINNING ACTOR, FILMMAKER, CO-FOUNDER OF CORE: If the academy has elected not to do it, if presenters have elected not to pursue the -- the leadership in Ukraine, who are taking bullets and bombs for us, along with the Ukrainian children that they are trying to protect, then I think every single one of those people and every bit of that decision will have been the most obscene moment in all of Hollywood history, and I hope that's not what's happening.

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If it turns out to be what's happening, I would encourage everyone involved to know that though it may be their moment, and I understand that, to celebrate their films, it is so much more importantly their moment to shine and to protest and to boycott that Academy Awards. And I, myself, if it comes back to it, I -- when I return, I will smelt mine in public.

I pray that's not what's happened. I pray there have not been arrogant people who consider themselves representatives of the greater good in my industry that have not decided to check in with leadership in Ukraine. So, I'm just going to hope that that's not what happened and I hope that everybody walks out if it is.

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KINKADE: Penn has been filming a documentary about Russia's invasion of Ukraine. He called President Zelenskyy an extraordinary and courageous person.

Thank you for watching. I'm Kristie Lu Stout. And our coverage live from Lviv, Ukraine, is next.

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