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Russian Strike on Mykolaiv; Russians Stop Advancing on Kyiv; Russia to Reduce Assault on Kyiv and Chernihiv; Paul Eaton and Jeffrey Edmonds are Interviewed about Ukraine; Biden Holds Call with European Allies. Aired 9:00-9:30a ET

Aired March 29, 2022 - 09:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[09:00:31]

JIM SCIUTTO, CNN ANCHOR: A good Tuesday morning to you. I'm Jim Sciutto.

We are following significant, breaking news this morning.

A major strategy shift by Russia. U.S. officials tell me this morning that Russia is already beginning to withdraw some forces from the area around the Ukrainian capital Kyiv. The U.S. observing some of those units already withdrawing. These include what are known as battalion tactical groups, or BTGs. That's the premier Russian combat fighting unit.

This as Moscow is now publicly claiming that the main task of its special military operation, as it has described it, has now been completed. U.S. officials assess that Russia will attempt to cover their retreat with continued air and artillery bombardment of the capital. They do caution that Putin's forces could reverse again if battle conditions allow. However, they see this as a long-term shift based on the obstacles Russian forces have faced, not a short-term shift to regroup.

We are also learning this morning that the Russian ministry of defense says publicly Moscow will, quote, drastically reduce military activities on two fronts, including Kyiv, the capital, and Chernihiv.

All of this as both sides met this morning in Istanbul, Turkey, for another round of negotiations. The Ukrainian side has called those talks constructive. That is new.

This as we're learning that there was discussion of a possible meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. That would be a significant face to face.

Also, this just in to CNN, President Biden will convene a call with America's European allies, just 15 minutes from now. They will have a lot to discuss.

And look at these incredible images this morning out of the Ukrainian city of Mykolaiv. Half of their regional administrative building demolished after a Russian strike. That's right, what you saw there is a hole right in the middle of that building there.

CNN's senior international correspondent Ben Wedeman is near the site of that attack.

Ben, officials say at least three people dead, several others injured. This follows a pattern of Russian attacks on civilian, not military targets, in and around Ukraine. What are you learning there?

BEN WEDEMAN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes, this strike, we heard it at 8:45 in the morning, in Mykolaiv, on the regional administrative headquarters. And when you see those images of the blast, something I haven't seen since Baghdad, the beginning of the Iraq -- the second Iraq war.

Now, the latest we're hearing from the local administration is that nine people were killed in that attack. More than 20 people wounded. In fact, it seemed to have been almost a direct hit on the office of the regional governor. He put out a message on his Telegram channel saying fortunately he had slept late and that's why he wasn't there at the time.

Now, Mykolaiv was really a front-line city, but in recent weeks we've seen that the Russian forces have been pushed back. In fact, I'm coming to you now from the village of Lutsinki (ph), which was under Russian occupation, but now people are starting to move back. In fact, this house right here, with the barking dogs inside, there is the remains of an air launched cluster munition in the backyard. The woman who was -- who lives here was telling us for days she was sleeping out in her potato cellar to take cover. And that when the Russians came, she met them at the gate of her house, with her Ukrainian passport, and told them to leave.

And I think it's that kind of resistance on a very personal, individual level that has made this Russian invasion of Ukraine so difficult to sustain, which might be part of the explanation as to why it appears that they may be toning down this current offensive.

Jim.

SCIUTTO: No question, Ben. It's a good point there because the stand- up of the Ukrainian people, how the Ukrainian people have stood up to this, certainly a part of the calculation there.

Ben Wedeman, just outside Mykolaiv, Ukraine.

[09:05:02]

I want to get now to CNN's John Berman. He's been reporting from Lviv, Ukraine.

John, you spoke with Pentagon Spokesperson John Kirby earlier this morning, seeming to give a consistent message now we're hearing here, not just from Moscow, but from U.S. intel assessments, of a Russian pullback in some parts of the country.

BERMAN: Yes, look, Jim, that's absolutely right. I just want to make one thing clear, something has shifted over the last two hours. At a minimum it's a shift in language, right? A shift in language from the Russians, from the Ukrainians out of these talks in Istanbul, they talk about them being productive. The Russians claiming that they're withdrawing from Kyiv and Chernihiv. You have your reporting, which is that U.S. intelligence thinks they've already seen evidence of some of the battalion tactical groups withdrawing.

Now, I did speak to Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby. It was before the meetings in Istanbul broke up. But what he says is consistent with the spirit of it. He didn't go as far as your sources did, Jim, that said they saw troops leaving the Kyiv area, but he made clear that the Russian activity has changed around there over the last day or two.

Listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOHN KIRBY, PENTAGON PRESS SECRETARY: We have seen over the last few days that the Russians stopped advancing on Kyiv. They certainly were trying to encircle it, couldn't do it, got pushed back to the east by some 55 kilometers by the Ukrainians and then dug in sort of in defensive positions to the north and northwest of Kyiv.

Certainly they've got a reprioritization in the east and they have stalled in the south. That's really interesting because in the early days that's where they were making the most progress. Now the Ukrainians are clawing back territory in the south as well.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BERMAN: All right, so you hear it there, that the Russians were certainly stalled before they may be withdrawing. Now, according to your sources, Jim, and this is all part of this consistent messaging now from U.S. officials and perhaps also from the Russians and Ukrainians.

Jim.

SCIUTTO: Yes, for folks watching at home, I think we should mark this moment -- and, by the way, things can change. It's the nature of war.

BERMAN: Yes.

SCIUTTO: But we're less than five weeks into this war. A war in which Russia greatly outnumbered, outgunned the Ukrainian forces, where U.S. intel assessments early on was that Russia was going to move and advance very quickly and Ukraine has pushed back and now Russia appears to be responding to that pushback and trimming down its ambitions in Ukraine.

BERMAN: Yes. That is the absolute message we are getting from them, at least verbally. And maybe more than that, Jim, according to your sources, because if these troops are moving away from Kyiv and Chernihiv, and I spoke to the mayor of Chernihiv this morning, which is a city that's encircled and a bomb went off while I was talking to him, so it would be welcome news for him if the Russian troops started to pull back from that city.

But if it's happening, this is an important moment.

SCIUTTO: It is. No question. And to your point, right, it's still a war going on there, and people are still in danger and we've got to watch that. These things don't -- they don't change in a day. But it is a marked change, at least big picture-wise at this point.

John Berman, great to have you. I know we're going to have you back in just a little bit.

As we were noting, two U.S. officials tell me that Russia is already beginning to change its military game plan and movements in Ukraine, and that the U.S. is observing those changes underway. This comes as Russia claims publicly that it plans to drastically reduce its military activity, particularly around the capital Kyiv, as well as Chernihiv.

CNN's Arwa Damon joins me now from Istanbul. And this is where Ukrainian and Russian negotiators have been meeting once again in person, peace talks brokered by the Turkish president.

Arwa, some signs perhaps -- and, again, we always take this with a dose of skepticism -- but a sign of some progress there in terms of the outlines potentially of a deal.

ARWA DAMON, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Or at least a bit more clarity on what the Ukrainian side might be moving towards as these negotiations do develop. It is worth noting that the Ukrainians and the Russians have called these talks constructive, while the Turkish foreign minister described them as being the most meaningful to date.

This should, however, be prefaced by the fact that the bar for meaningful conversation is at this stage quite low. But a number of potentially positive developments again as you have been mentioning there. We do need to take all of this with a grain of salt. But one of the key sticking points has been the issue of Crimea, annexed, of course, by Russia back in 2014, and the Donbas region. We don't know much about what they were negotiating when it comes to the Donbas region. But when it comes to Crimea, it seems like the Ukrainian side at this stage is proposing kicking that issue another 15 years down the road. Assuming that, again, based on the -- what the Ukrainians have been saying, that for the 15 years there would be no military activity in that area.

Now, when it comes to sort of a bigger cease-fire, there have been talks about a humanitarian cease-fire at the very least to allow more humanitarian corridors to be opened up.

[09:10:02]

No agreement on that just yet.

And then you have what Ukraine wants to see take place. And that is that Ukraine is willing to accept this non-nuclear neutral status if there are certain security guarantees. And Ukraine is not necessarily looking towards Russia for those security guarantees. It is looking towards guarantor countries. And that is basically western countries -- Turkey also being included in that -- to guarantee Ukraine's own security if Ukraine were to adopt this neutral status.

Now, that could potentially prove to be very tricky because even though in that case Ukraine wouldn't formally be a NATO country, what Ukraine is asking for is the same sort of security agreement that NATO countries have among themselves. And given the west's reluctance to get involved in a face to face confrontation with Russia, it is going to be difficult to see how Ukraine is able to negotiate this and which countries will actually be willing to step forward into this guarantor status.

SCIUTTO: Yes.

DAMON: But, given how badly things have been going up until this point, are those who are involved saying that today went better than expected? Yes, they are.

SCIUTTO: Of course the question is, Ukraine has previously signed an agreement with Russia guaranteeing its security back in 1994 when it gave up nuclear weapons. Of course, Russia did not abide by that. So questions about good faith going forward.

Arwa Damon there on top of it. Thanks so much.

OK, joining me now to discuss what this all means, retired Army Major General Paul Eaton and Jeffrey Edmonds. He's the former director for Russia on the National Security Council.

Great to have both of you on.

General Eaton, if I could begin with you.

You hear the new reporting here that we have this morning about the U.S. assessing a major strategy shift by Russia, already beginning to see some of those forces around Kyiv move back and a focus on the south and the east. My sources tell me they see this as a long-term, not a short-term move.

I wonder, as you look at this, do you believe that?

MAJ. GEN. PAUL EATON (RET.), FORMER COMMANDING GENERAL, COALITION MILITARY ASSISTANCE TRAINING TEAM IN IRAQ: Well, it's hard to say, Jim. And thank you for having me on the -- on the show here.

When you have one unit, one side in contact start to back off, trying to break contact, the other side needs to maintain contact. It doesn't mean that maintain contact can kill, it just needs to -- you need to make sure that you understand where your opponent is going. And at the tactical level, it just means that a break in contact to do something, either definitively to break contact and retire from the battlefield, does it mean to reposition so that you can rearm, refit and then reengage, or does it mean that you're going to be moving to another location, in this case perhaps Donbas, and reinforce there? Unknown. But at an operational and strategic level, it's a big change.

SCIUTTO: Jeffrey Edmonds, given Russia's losses to this point, if you take the higher estimates here, it's already lost more than it lost in Afghanistan in ten years. Even the lower estimates, Russia has lost more personnel than the U.S. lost in Afghanistan and Iraq combined over 20 years. Do you see Russia with these moves and the public statements from the MOD saying that they are, in fact, moving away from places like Kyiv as a recognition that they lost here, at least on their greatest ambition of taking over Ukraine?

Oh, sorry -- sorry, Jeffrey, as we check -- as we check Jeffrey's audio there, Paul Eaton, I wonder how you view that. I mean do you see this as Russia recognizing the tremendous losses to its military perhaps?

EATON: Jim, at a strategic level, yes. This is perhaps an opportunity for President Putin to declare victory, that he's achieved his objectives and to retire completely from the battlefield. Or, as others have speculated, at an operational level, move forces to Donbas. There has been talk about a Korea model coming out of this. But at a strategic level, we may see the president of Russia show an off ramp to extricate himself from what had gone extremely badly.

SCIUTTO: Yes.

Jeffrey, I believe we have you back here.

I want to get your word -- your view on what appears to be at least a public Ukrainian offer, and that is to, in effect, acknowledge Russia's annexation of Crimea, at least for 15 years. In other words, put that on the back burner as a way to end the open hostilities.

Is that -- does that make sense to you? Does that acknowledge the facts on the ground, one might say? But could that be a path towards peace here?

JEFFREY EDMONDS, FORMER DIRECTOR FOR RUSSIA, NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL: I think it's a path towards making some progress in these peace talks so they will -- to be honest, I'm rather skeptical of the talks going forward given, you know, the very disparate positions that both sides have.

[09:15:09]

The Ukrainians are maintaining their position of territorial integrity. Besides this -- this offer of Crimea. But I think the Ukrainians are really putting forth a good faith effort to try to make some progress towards some kind of deal that they can live with.

SCIUTTO: I do want to ask about the question of nuclear strikes now. Perhaps that question has receded. But there is another school of thought that as Putin is backed further into a corner, that the chances of weapons of mass destruction rise rather than fall. We did have the Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, tell PBS "NewsHour" that Russia would only use nuclear weapons in an existential threat to Russia. But we also know that Russian military doctrine allows for the use of tactical nukes, for battlefield nukes.

Where do you stand on that threat today? Because it's certainly one the administration took seriously, Jeffrey Edmonds.

EDMONDS: Yes, so I don't -- in the near term, I don't see that happening in Ukraine. I think the real danger of that comes if this conflict expands beyond Ukraine and becomes a Russia/NATO war. And I think very quickly get to a point where Russia might use tactical nuclear or non-strategic nuclear weapons in an attempt to -- to resolve that conflict.

SCIUTTO: General Eaton, that was the worst case scenario to the view of NATO and U.S. leaders, right, that this escalates into a direct conflict between Russia and NATO. And that's the explicit reason why Biden and others resisted, for instance, a no-fly zone that would have put U.S. and Russian aircraft potentially nose to nose in the air.

Do you think that danger of expansion of this conflict beyond Ukraine has, for now, receded?

EATON: It appears to have receded. And to the nuclear question, when we would war games this during the Cold War in the '70s and '80s, the losing side fires nuclear weapons first. And the war games never ended well. It -- there is an escalation that drips in, and you fire one small artillery round, and then your opponent fires four, and it escalates very, very quickly.

So, I believe that the -- what we see right now, this tactical break in contact that we're watching, that may go operational, may go strategic, is backing away from the brink of this so-called shot fired and let's see what happens.

SCIUTTO: Yes.

Well, if it holds, and, of course, we'll watch it closely, if it holds, this could be a momentous moment in this war.

Major General Paul Eaton, Jeffrey Edmonds, good to have your sound back, thanks for both -- thanks to both of you for joining.

At any moment now, President Biden will be getting on the phone with the leaders of France, Germany, Italy and the U.K. There appears to be some progress as we were noting in the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. How those leaders discuss those issues. We're going to bring you an update as we -- updates as we get them.

Plus, breaking news on the investigation into January 6th. You don't want to miss this. "The Washington Post" has obtained White House call records from that day, and there is a seven-hour gap, a seven-hour gap in records of former President Trump's communications, right in the thick of the attack on Capitol Hill. Why those missing calls. We'll have more.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:22:43] SCIUTTO: At any moment now, President Biden will hold a call with European allies to discuss Russia's invasion of Ukraine and next steps.

CNN's Jeremy Diamond is at White House.

Jeremy, do we know the main topics of these conversations?

JEREMY DIAMOND, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, listen, we know that President Biden was scheduled to begin this call at 9:15 this morning, and it's going to be with the presidents and the respective leaders of France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom, all on the phone with President Biden this morning, to discuss the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Now, it comes at a pivotal moment, of course. Not only as you're reporting that U.S. intelligence is assessing that Russia is making military moves away from some major areas of conflict, including the capital city of Kyiv, but also, as we were seeing, that there is progress, it appears, according to both the Ukrainian and the Russian sides, in these talks between the two sides in Istanbul, the capital in Turkey.

So, obviously, there's a range of topics that could be discussed here. Of course, this is the group of countries that have been key in not only helping Ukraine with military and economic support, humanitarian assistance as well, but also this is the group that has been leading the front here in terms of pushing back on Russia and punishing Russia with financial and economic sanctions. All of that could be on the table here as President Biden convenes this call.

Jim.

SCIUTTO: We'll be waiting for updates afterwards.

Jeremy Diamond, at the White House, thank you.

Joining us now to discuss, CNN contributor Jill Dougherty. He's the former CNN Moscow bureau chief. Been there for years.

Jill, good to have you on this morning.

JIM DOUGHERTY, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: Hey, Jim.

SCIUTTO: So, we have a combination of events now. We have our own reporting that the U.S. is assessing Russia pulling back from its designs on Kyiv, and it's already observing some of those forces pull back because of the losses they've encountered. We have Russia claiming this was the plan all along. You know, we wanted to focus on the east and the south. We know that's not true. But big picture, do you see Russia admitting defeat here, in effect, for its goals of taking all or most of Ukraine?

DOUGHERTY: They will never admit any type of defeat.

SCIUTTO: Yes. DOUGHERTY: I think that's impossible, politically, for Putin. We all know that.

But I think what they've done here, and this is why it gets kind of confusing, is they have changed their goals. They've changed the goal post. So the definition of what they wanted, I mean go way back, has really kind of changed.

[09:25:05]

I was thinking of the word denazification, which is still huge.

SCIUTTO: Yes.

DOUGHERTY: They're still talking about the Nazis, quote, in Ukraine. But denazification used to mean get rid of the government, maybe even, you know, kill or whatever, replace the government of Zelenskyy. That's changed. You know, now it's more like, you know, protecting Russian speakers, rights, et cetera. That's kind of gone to the side.

But I think where we are is -- and this is probably the difficulty for President Biden and his allies, is to really figure out what is Putin really doing here, you know? Is this a feint? Does it really mean something? It feels big. It really does. But I think, you know, some of those crucial issues like neutrality, you know, and security guarantees, those are huge. But we're in a war.

SCIUTTO: Yes.

DOUGHERTY: So, they have to begin with things like, you know, a cease- fire, withdraw of forces. And maybe the Russian -- you know, what looks like pulling back could be the beginning of some type of sign. It's not a withdrawal, but it could be a beginning of something.

SCIUTTO: Jill, I wonder, Russia lies, Putin lies, and he has a closed or largely closed information environment in his own country. More closed today than it was even a month ago or so.

Is there any way he can sell this to the Russian public given all the losses and a lot of mothers there who won't have sons anymore because they were lost on the battlefield in Ukraine, that he could sell this as what he had planned all along?

DOUGHERTY: Well, he sold it so far. It seems. To some -- you know, to some people in Russia who still believe in the president, President Putin, he's sold it. But I think what he has to do is, again, this redefinition. You know, he can say, my goal was to protect those Russian speakers in the -- he wouldn't even call it, of course, breakaway regions, but let's say the Donbas region, which Russia now recognizes as an independent state (INAUDIBLE). He can say, we went in there. They were in grave danger. You know, there was genocide, et cetera. And I've gone in there and I've protected their rights and I've given the -- this is all in quotes, of course, the Nazis in Ukraine a bloody nose.

SCIUTTO: Yes. DOUGHERTY: We showed -- you know, that type of thing.

But it depends on how he defines what he wanted to do. And I keep going back to the fact that in my mind it has shifted a lot.

SCIUTTO: Yes, no question. Even the public statements.

Jill Dougherty, always great to have you on. Thanks so much.

DOUGHERTY: Thanks.

SCIUTTO: There is more breaking news ahead.

Here at home, lawmakers are now investigating a seven-hour gap in the records of former President Trump's phone calls on the day, in the midst of it, on January 6th. The Select Committee is now reported looking at whether Trump communicated through back channels instead. Even so-called burner phones. That's not the way the White House is supposed to operate. We'll have details next.

And we are moments away from the opening bell on Wall Street. Futures higher this morning as investors hope for a breakthrough in Russia/Ukraine peace talks. A slowing of the war there. The conflict has driven up commodity and metal prices adding to a surge in inflation. All the three major indices are on course to end the month higher, though. But this will be the worst quarter since the first three months of 2020, that when the coronavirus pandemic hit the financial markets.

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