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Biden: Putin "Seems To Be Self-Isolated," May Not Be Getting Real Info; Russian Troops Near Kyiv Have Repositioned, Headed Toward Belarus Amid New Focus On Donbass Region; Ukraine: Mariupol Is Gone," Thousands Forced To Move To Russia; Ukraine Seeks Drones, Ground Attack Aircraft And Equipment Repairs In Latest Request To U.S.; Pentagon Gives Update On War In Ukraine. Aired 2:30-3p ET

Aired March 31, 2022 - 14:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[14:33:42]

VICTOR BLACKWELL, CNN HOST: President Biden just weighed in on new intel reports claiming Russian President Vladimir Putin is in the dark about the state of his war.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOE BIDEN, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: He seems to be self- isolating. And there's some indication that he has fired or put under house arrest some of his advisors.

But I don't want to put too much stock in that at this time, because we don't have that much hard evidence.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BLACKWELL: Now, Britain's spy chief says that Putin's advisors are afraid to tell him the ugly truth about Russian defeats and it's causing Putin to misjudge his military.

ALISYN CAMEROTA, CNN HOST: Here to discuss, we have Jeffrey Edmonds, former CIA military analyst and former director for Russia on the National Security Council.

Also with us, CNN national security analyst, Beth Sanner. She's a former deputy director of National Intelligence.

Great to have both of you.

Jeffrey, I want to start with you on that very topic.

President Biden says that it's an open question as to whether or not Vladimir Putin is getting real, truthful information from his advisors.

But then, at the same time, the U.K. head of the intel -- their intel agency said today, quote:

"It's clear Russia is using mercenaries and foreign fighters to augment its forces. This includes the Wagner Group, which has been active in Ukraine since Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014."

[14:35:01]

Doesn't that suggest that he knows that they need to augment their troops because it's not going well?

JEFFREY EDMONDS, FORMER CIA MILITARY ANALYST & FORMER DIRECTOR FOR RUSSIA, NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL: I think that, at this point, he probably understands that things are not going as well as he thought they would because he hasn't taken control of Kyiv or Kharkiv.

And it's clear he thought this whole resistance would fall apart in days. And that's not the case.

That being said, to your first point, it's not -- (AUDIO PROBLEM) -- same kind of culture we have where you -- (AUDIO PROBLEM -- really trying -- (AUDIO PROBLEM)

CAMEROTA: We'll try to re-establish Jeffrey for a second.

Jeffrey, hold that thought.

BLACKWELL: Let's see if we can get that audio issue fixed.

Beth, let's come to you.

The Kremlin spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, has responded to these claims that there's some secrecy within the Kremlin toward what's really happening, toward the president.

He said, "Neither the State Department nor the Pentagon has any real information about what is going on in the Kremlin. They don't understand President Putin. They don't understand the decision-making mechanism. And they don't understand our style of work."

We have discussed on this show that President Putin is a bit of a recluse, even more so during COVID.

How much does the U.S. know about the inner workings of the Kremlin?

BETH SANNER, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY ANALYST: Well, I think that, of course, the Intelligence Community knows a lot. And I'm not privy to that information anymore, but you know, that's clear.

But I think any of us can see that in an authoritarian system -- and I think we can all understand in an authoritarian system that nobody is going to give that inconvenient truth to a person like President Putin, who has ordered many people to be killed.

So, it shouldn't come as any surprise that this is going on. But it certainly has an impact, right? So that's important.

CAMEROTA: Jeffrey, let's see how your audio is.

One of the things we just heard from Nic Robertson, our diplomatic editor, is that the defense minister in Russia, who has been quite outspoken this week, sharing his opinion on where things were, now may not be around, may have vanished in the past day or so.

So, I mean, could somebody truly have been disappeared like that for saying something out loud?

EDMONDS: I mean, he certainly could. I mean, it would not be beyond the pale for Putin to remove somebody that's in his way or disagrees with him.

Because clearly, this campaign is not going as well as Putin thought it would and it would make sense to me that he would blame his minister of defense.

BLACKWELL: Beth, any indication that -- let's say, Putin got the real truth about the losses, the underperformance of Russian troops, that that would deter him at all, that he would be any less committed to the mission of overtaking Ukraine, that it would change anything dramatically on the ground for him.

SANNER: I don't think so.

I think that there are two goals for the U.S. and the U.K. in terms of declassifying this information.

The first is to kind of put Putin maybe on his heels a little bit, but by making it very clear to him that there's a lot more maybe in detail that he doesn't know.

But as Jeff's just said, he does understand the broad constructs here and that's why we're starting to see some changes on the ground.

But the second thing, I think, is more important, it creates a lot of disarray in the security services and the intelligence services.

We have heard that there were two senior FSB, that is, the FBI equivalent people who were assigned to be giving -- in charge of the units covering Ukraine. Those people are supposed to be under house arrest.

So, you know, if military folks have been put under house arrest -- there have been a lot of rumors about that in recent weeks -- it could all be true.

And what the U.K. official also said is that they're seeing a lot of finger-pointing, a blame game going on where different agencies are pitted against each other, trying to say who was at fault for all of this going on.

So, they know it, and it's creating problems for them. It's very hard to execute a war when you're watching your back.

CAMEROTA: Really interesting to get your insights.

Jeffrey Edmonds, Beth Sanner, thank you.

Ukraine is asking for drones and ground attack aircraft in their latest request from lawmakers here in the U.S. We'll take a look at what they're asking for next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[14:40:12]

CAMEROTA: So, we are seeing a lot of movement of Russian troops. Some that had taken over the Chernobyl Power Plant in the early days of the Russian invasion, right there, have now withdrawn.

This is according to Ukraine's organization that oversees the country's nuclear sites.

The Pentagon estimates that 20 percent of Russian troops that were near Kharkiv, right there -- sorry, near Kyiv, I should say -- have repositioned and headed towards Belarus.

And the Ukrainian military has observed a shift in the Russian strategy with a new focus on the Donbass region right there.

BLACKWELL: There we go.

CAMEROTA: Thank you.

BLACKWELL: So, let's discuss now with retired U.S. Army Colonel Liam Collins who served as an executive officer for the U.S. senior defense advisor to Ukraine from 2016 to 2018. He's a member of the Council on Foreign Relations.

[14:44:59:]

So, Colonel, what are the options here for Russia from these positions?

COL. LIAM COLLINS, MEMBER, COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS & FORMER EXECUTIVE OFFICER FOR U.S. SENIOR DEFENSE ADVISOR TO UKRAINE: Yes, I mean, I think what Russia and Putin's tried to explain the removal of forces from Kyiv as a concession, right, satisfying a concession,

When in reality, it's just a sign the war isn't going well. The troops have been decimated. So he has to pull them back, not just off the frontline but all the way to Belarus or Russia to try to refit and regroup and get them into the fight.

So that's more plausible explanation than to say they're moving to the east. They may indeed move to the east eventually into the Donbass, but most of what Putin says is just not credible.

CAMEROTA: Let's zoom in on the Donbass region right now since you brought that up. Here it is, large scale. And we're hearing a lot of shelling in the Kharkiv area.

What do you see here?

COLLINS: Yes, I mean, Kharkiv, that's what -- I mean, Putin has no ability to send forces in and take Kyiv and Kharkiv. So he's just going to sit off and launch rockets or missiles, artillery shells in there because he has no combat power to really move forward into the city.

So this is about all he can do at this point is just try to put as much, you know, pain and suffering on the Ukrainian people as possible.

BLACKWELL: Let's go now to Mariupol, where the Ukrainian president told CBS that that city here is gone.

We also know that convoy of buses, according to a Ukrainian military official, is on its way to the city to help with civilian evacuations after being held up at a Russian checkpoint.

Talk about just the strategic value of this city for Russia.

COLLINS: Right, so, Russia, they look at wanting to make this land bridge that connects the Donbass, Russia, all the way down to Crimea. And so that's something that's been talked about for years.

So, yes, trying to create that land bridge all the way there. And so it's of value for Russia for that.

If Russia actually believes that they can hold onto a portion of Ukraine after this war is over.

Now, I don't think that's possible, because the Russian -- the Ukrainian will to fight is so great that, sure, Russia will make some gains, but they won't be able to hold them because it will be guerilla warfare.

CAMEROTA: Let's talk about what's happening on the Ukrainian soldiers' side.

If we look at the Kyiv-controlled areas, it seems as though the Ukrainians have been able to take back some ground here, at least make some progress.

COLLINS: Yes, and that's not a surprise. I mean, right? In all facets of this, war fighting is a function of many things, strategy, operational employment, doctrine, training, leadership resolve and the weapons systems.

And the only category Russia has the edge in, the overwhelming edge, is combat systems. In everything else, Ukraine has the edge.

So in a tactical fight, when Ukraine's going to pick the time and place to conduct those counterattacks, they're going to be successful because, at the tactical level, they're going to overwhelm and defeat the Russians every time.

BLACKWELL: More on the weapons now. We've got the list, partial list here of the requests from Ukrainian military to the U.S. government.

Including combat aircraft. We've got the reconnaissance and attack drones, electronic warfare anti-drone systems, the list here on the screen.

What weapons stand out to you that would help the Ukrainians most here?

COLLINS: They need -- I mean, the Javelin weapons systems, if they're getting depleted, they absolutely need those. They do need electronic warfare, anti-drone systems, to protect their capabilities.

But they also need reconnaissance and attack drones to attack Russian targets on the ground to try to take them out as opposed to sending their ground forces in.

And continue, surface-to-air missile systems to take out Russian air systems.

So it's not a matter of one or the other. Every one of those is important to what they need to continue to be successful in this fight.

As I said, they have an edge in every area except for total combat power, in terms of weapons systems, ammunition. So that's what they need to be resupplied in, all those assets, because they're being exhausted.

BLACKWELL: All right, retired Army Colonel Liam Collins, thank you, sir.

So, there are growing concerns that North Korea is preparing for a possible underground nuclear test. This would be the first one since 2017. We have more on this next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[14:50:49]

CAMEROTA: Let's go to Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby who is giving an update on the war in Ukraine.

REAR ADM. JOHN KIRBY, PENTAGON PRESS SECRETARY: And a small number are beginning to reposition. It's not exactly clear, Bob, where they're going to go, for how long and for what purpose.

But we don't see any indication that they're going to be sent home. The best assessment we have, and it's an assessment at this early stage, is that they will be repositioned probably into Belarus to be refit and resupplied and used elsewhere in Ukraine.

Again, where is that elsewhere? We don't exactly know. All I can tell you is what we've said now for several days, it's clear the Russians want to reprioritize in the Donbass area. That could be one destination.

But again, too soon to know. We don't really have a good sense of it.

You asked about Chernobyl. We have seen indications that some Russian forces are departing the Chernobyl plant facility.

Again, we gather that they are leaving to the north to go back again to Belarus. But again, indications are not completely clear at this time.

I think you were asking is that of a piece or is it something separate. We would assess at this early stage it's of a piece of this larger effort to refit and resupply and not necessarily done because of health hazards or emergency or crisis at Chernobyl. That would be our assessment.

And I honestly don't have an update for you on the vaunted convoy. I don't have anything for you on that.

I don't even know if it still exists at this point. It's been so long. They never really accomplished their mission.

They never really provided any resupply of any value to Russian forces that were assembling around Kyiv. Never came to -- never really came to their aid.

The Ukrainians put a stop to that convoy pretty quickly by being very nimble, knocking out bridges, hitting lead vehicles, stopping their movement.

But we have not seen an update on where those vehicles are or what they're doing at this point.

And at this point, again, even if -- take our skepticism about the repositioning and put that to the side for a minute.

We've talked about that the Russians had pretty much, even before this repositioning, had basically established defensive positions and they were digging in. They weren't making any effort to advance on Kyiv.

It's questionable whether that resupply convoy would have been of any use because they weren't on the move anymore. Again, how much of the material they were able to get from it? I don't know.

UNIDENTIFIED REPORTER: Would that be an example of Russian planning failures or shortcomings, a convoy that didn't seem to connect with what they were doing?

KIRBY: I think it's a function of a lot of things. I think that's one of them.

We don't think they properly planned for logistics and sustainment of a force that size in the field under combat conditions.

Clearly, they didn't -- if they did plan for logistics, if they didn't execute very well, because even before that convoy became a news story, we were talking about they were running out of fuel, running out of food, running out of ammunition.

So it's not clear to us whether this convoy was a reaction to problems they were experiencing or it was them trying to be proactive. It doesn't matter. They didn't get there.

I think it's also a function of Ukrainian resistance and agility and, frankly, just battlefield smarts. By knowing where these vehicles were coming from, knowing where they

were trying to, and getting between where they were going and where they were, which is what they did.

[14:55:02]

Knocking out bridges, for instance, making it hard to move on paved roads. And these were not vehicles that were built for off-roading either.

So I think, when you talk about this resupply effort, you have to credit the Ukrainians for some real dexterity.

UNIDENTIFIED REPORTER: Thank you.

Can you rule out the U.S. is training military on polish soil?

KIRBY: We are not in a training environment in Poland with Ukrainians.

What we've said in the past is that, obviously, as there are transshipments being coordinated in some countries around Ukraine, there's interactions with Ukrainian armed forces.

Some of those interactions are with members of the U.S. military. There's some liaison going on. But we wouldn't call it classic training.

UNIDENTIFIED REPORTER: How do you explain certain Ukrainian parliament members are still telling Congress that they are not getting, not only the weapons they need, but the shipments have slowed?

Can you give us a sense of the pace of the shipments and what is in those shipments? Are you sending medical supplies, for instance, or is it only lethal aid you're sending?

KIRBY: We would not agree it's being slowed. Quite the contrary. We completed the $350 million that President Biden authorized a month or so ago. That was completed in a record three weeks or so ago, which is unheard of.

The $200 million he approved not long after is pretty much all in. There may be one shipment left, I don't know.

And then the $800 million the president approved, what a week, 10 days ago, those shipments are already arriving.

In fact, from the time he signed the order to the first shipment going on its way was, like, four days, Jen. And there's been half a dozen shipments that have flowed into the region.

And they're not -- I'm not going to talk about the ground routes and how things are getting into Ukraine, as you can understand.

But I would tell you things aren't sitting long at these intermediate staging shipment sites before they're getting picked up by convoys and taken in by Ukraine. Four days is pretty quick. Like I said, there have already been half a

dozen or so on the way.

And we expect -- again, without getting predictive -- we will get the materials in as fast as we can. It's happening as you and I are actually talking right now.

And we don't think it will take very long to complete the $800 package, getting it all filled out. We don't think that's going to take long at all, a couple of weeks probably.

And the other question, what's in there. Every shipment is a mixture of weapons systems and then support and sustainment items, whether that's food, body armor, helmets, small arms and ammunition, medical and first aid kits, all of that.

Every shipment is different. I couldn't tell you. And I'm not going to tell you every single shipment has all of those things in.

But typically, there's a mixture of what goes in with every shipment. It's not just all -- it's not all Javelins and nothing else.

But in these first half a dozen or so, there have been weapons systems, Javelins, Stingers that have gone in as well as medical supplies and body armor and small arms and ammunition.

So, look, Jen, we appreciate and respect that the Ukrainians want this stuff and they want it yesterday. We understand that.

We know time is not on their side. We don't think it's on our side either, which is why we're working really hard.

I mean, I've been dealing with security assistance issues since when I had this podium under a previous administration. I've never seen the Department of Defense be able to move with this sense of alacrity and speed and I have in the last few weeks.

UNIDENTIFIED REPORTER: (INAUDIBLE QUESTION)

BLACKWELL: John Kirby there at the Pentagon giving an update on the war in Ukraine, U.S. support for Ukrainian military. Also the movement of Russian troops.

Let's bring in now CNN Pentagon correspondent, Oren Liebermann. Back with us is Army Colonel Liam Collins.

Colonial, let me start with you.

What we heard from Kirby, it's not clear where Russian troops will go, for how long, or for what purpose -- probably to Belarus to be refitted, resupplied. He says likely they're not going home.

[14:59:59]

My question is, when they return, the likelihood that they will be able to regain some of the places that they have left? I see your eyes closed. I know you're not deep in thought. We got you.