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Russia Leaving Ukrainian Towns; U.S. Hitting Russia With New Sanctions; Interview With University Of Southern California School Of International Relations Director Robert English; Major Bank Warns Of Recession. Aired 10:30-11a ET

Aired April 06, 2022 - 10:30:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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[10:30:00]

JIM SCIUTTO, CNN ANCHOR: This morning, the British Prime Minister says, that Russia's actions in Bucha and other Ukraine towns and cities are close to resembling genocide. I have to warn you that some of the images we're about to show you, and we try to do this so you're aware, are graphic and disturbing but they're important.

BIANNA GOLODRYGA, CNN SENIOR GLOBAL AFFAIRS ANALYST: Super important for everyone to get a world to get a sense of what is going on in the ground there in Bucha. They come from a town East of Kyiv where people return to their homes to find bodies scattered in the streets. Their house and other buildings reduced to piles of rubble. CNN's Fred Pleitgen traveled to Borodianka and saw it firsthand.

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FREDERIK PLEITGEN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voiceover): In the war that Russia has unleashed against Ukraine, few places have suffered more than Borodianka. Occupied by Vladimir Putin's troops since late February, recently taken back by Ukraine's army.

PLEITGEN (on camera): Borodianka was held by the Russians for a very long time. And just to give you an idea about the scale of the destruction, you have houses like these that were completely destroyed. But if we look over here, you can see that even large residential buildings have been flattened. This entire building was flattened. It was connected with this one before, but now there's absolutely nothing left of it.

PLEITGEN (voiceover): And the Russians made sure to show they owned this town, painting the letter V on occupied buildings, even defacing Borodianka's city administration. V is the letter the Russians used to help identify their forces that invaded this part of Ukraine.

Oksana Kostychenko and her husband just returned here and found Russian soldiers had been staying in their house. She says, they ransacked the place. Alcohol is everywhere, she says. Empty bottles in the hallway under things. They smoked a lot, put out cigarettes on the table. They also showed us the corpse of a man they found in their backyard. His hands and feet tied. Severe bruises on his body, a shell casing still nearby.

Russia claims, its forces don't target civilians. Calling reports of atrocities fake and provocations. But these body collectors are the ones who have to remove the carnage Russia's military leaves in its wake. In a span of less than an hour, they found a person gunned down by while riding a bicycle, a body burned beyond recognition, and a man stuck in his car gunned down with bullet holes in his head and chest. He was believed to be transporting medical supplies, now strewn near this road.

The most awful thing is, those are not soldiers laying there. Just people, innocent people, Gennadiy says. For no reason, I asked?

[10:35:00]

Yes, for no reason. Killed and tortures for no reason, he says.

The road from Kyiv to Borodianka is lined with villages heavily damaged after Russia's occupation. Destroyed tanks and armored vehicles left behind. But also, indications of just how much firepower they unleashed on this area.

PLEITGEN (on camera): The Russians say, this is a special operation, not a war. And that they don't harm civilians, but look how much ammunition they left behind. Simply in this one single firing position here. This is ammunition for heavy weapons with devastating effects on civilian areas.

PLEITGEN (voiceover): That devastation cuts through the towns and villages North of Kyiv where the number of dead continues to rise. Now that Vladimir Putin's armies have withdrawn, Ukraine's leaders still believe many more bodies could be buried beneath the rubble. Fred Pleitgen, CNN, Borodianka, Ukraine.

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SCIUTTO: The civilians are the targets, we got to say that out loud. More evidence of that every day. The United Nations has now confirmed more than 1,500 civilians have died in Ukraine since the start of the invasion. But they always note, when they have these figures that the actual number of civilian deaths are expected to be, in their terms, considerably higher, once those bodies are collected. And those buildings, Bianna, that we're seeing turned to rubble are cleared.

GOLODRYGA: Yes. Joining us now, Robert English, the Director of the USC School of International Relations. He's also a former policy analyst for the defense department. Good to see you, Robert. So, in terms of what can be done to have Vladimir Putin, once and for all, pull back. We've talked about sanctions, we just heard of new sanctions out of the U.S. today, and yet, he continues to bombard Ukraine. I'm curious, is it going to take cutting off oil and gas, and that's going to have to, obviously, come on the part of the Europeans?

ROBERT ENGLISH, DIRECTOR, UNIV. OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: I can't answer that with any assurance. The Russian economy is groaning under the sanctions, and the new ones coming will make it worse. But so far, Putin has the resources to continue this war. More interesting, more important is that his army is beginning to hollow out. Like, a lot of these units that are redeploying from Kyiv, where the battle was lost, are one quarter or one half their strength. They're severely depleted. We know they're having great difficulty replacing the equipment. They're having even more difficulty recruiting new soldiers.

So, at some point, he simply can't fight anymore. But I think he's bargaining that he can hold out for weeks more, maybe more than a month. And that the Ukrainian side will crumble first, and he'll get a better deal when they finally strike a cease fire. It's a war of attrition now.

SCIUTTO: What is the substance of any deal reached with Vladimir Putin? He's repeatedly broken them in the past, either one's made by Russia. For instance, the Budapest Memorandum establishing Ukraine's independence after he left the Soviet Union, but also, the Minsk. I mean, he may make them. He may sign them. He may sign this one. But do you believe them? I spoke to a former senior Ukrainian official last hour and says that he won't believe a peace agreement until Putin is out of power. What substance does it have and why should Ukraine, or the West, or the U.S. treat that agreement as anything but a pause?

ENGLISH: Well, we don't. We don't trust anything he says. We only act on what he does. And I think a useful model here is what we did in the Bosnian wars, the Yugoslav Civil Wars in the '90s. And how we came to terms for a peace agreement, the Dayton Accords, with the aggressor in that war, which was the Serb President Slobodan Milosevich. We didn't trust him either. But we sat down at the table with him. There was a compromise. We made a deal with the devil. And then outside peacekeepers came in. Military power to enforce that settlement.

So, we don't have to trust Putin in this case. We have to see him deliver. But it's not without precedent that we do a deal with the devil. That's a terrible thing. But the prolonged bloodshed and the destruction of Ukraine is even worse. So, we have on weigh the ideal, right, which is no deal, no compromise, we don't do anything until Putin is out of power, which could take years. Against -- we balance that against, you know, we hold our nose and do the dirty deal for the present. And we count on Putin's removal later just as Milosevich was removed later and sent to the war crimes tribunal.

SCIUTTO: That's a good point. Sometimes history can be president, a bad president. Sometimes maybe a hopeful one. Robert English, thanks so much.

While her husband was sent --

ENGLISH: You're welcome.

SCIUTTO: -- to fight the Russians back in 2014 when they first invaded Ukraine, eight years later, he's now back on the front lines again. How she is trying to stay strong for their children, coming up.

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[10:40:00]

GOLODRYGA: Well, right now Ukrainians from all walks of life and levels of military experience are now on the front lines fighting Russia's invasion.

SCIUTTO: That includes a father who, like many Ukrainians, already fought the Russians when they first invaded in 2014.

[10:45:00]

Our Brianna Keilar joins us now from Lviv in Western Ukraine. You spoke to his West -- his pregnant wife who says, she has to be strong for her children. Understandably so. How does she do it? And what's the experience been like for them?

BRIANNA KEILAR, CNN ANCHOR: You know, one of the ways she does it, Jim, is that she's had to do it before. I spoke with Liuba, who does have two kids and another on the way. And she was quick to remind me, she's not a military spouse at this point in time, in the sense that Americans might connect with. Because her husband has been drafted and this is the case for so many men like Makyle (ph) here in Ukraine.

She said that, you know, he served back in 2014. He signed with the Ukrainian army then. And she thought that that was going to be it. But here he is fighting again. She told me that sometimes she's angry with him. She's angry with him for joining the armed forces again, even though she knows he really had no choice. But mostly she says, she is just so angry that this war is happening.

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LIUBA, PREGNANT WIFE OF SERVICE MEMBER FIGHTING FOR UKRAINE (through translator): My kids, they know that the war is happening. They know that their father is in the military. Semen is going through this as an adult. He understands everything. Yustenya will sometimes run to me and cry and say that she's afraid her dad will be killed. But I always explain to her that our dad is big and strong.

SEMEN, SON OF SERVICE MEMBER FIGHTING FOR UKRAINE (through translator): I think our dad is protecting all of us very much. And I know, I think, that he didn't want to do this. But that's what he had to do.

YUSTENYA, DAUGHTER OF SERVICE MEMBER FIGHTING FOR UKRAINE (through translator): When he comes back, I want to buy a big cotton candy. And I don't want him to go to the war. And I want all of us to stay together.

KEILAR (on camera): What are you worried about?

LIUBA (through translator): That he will not come back.

KEILAR (on camera): What are your hopes for the future?

LIUBA (through translator): First of all, I hope that when it's time for the third child to see this world, that my husband will be back from the war, that the war will end by that time. And that the war will end with our victory. Because if we don't win this war, then probably in 15 to 20 years, my son will have to go to the next war and defend our country.

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KEILAR: And that is the concern of so many military families here in Ukraine. And just to give you, Bianna and Jim, a sense of how much war has touched this family, I was there speaking with them. That's actually not their house. They're staying with Liuba's sister, Yuliana. And Yuliana is fresh back from the front lines. She's a civilian.

SCIUTTO: Yes.

KEILAR: But she -- as she did in 2014, drives supplies out to her brother-in-law's unit. I asked her, what were you taking? She was taking night vision goggles, long underwear. She took a car out. She even took a drone. And even the family dog, Pufa, is a war veteran from the fighting out in the East in 2014. Right now, while Makyle is out in the front lines fighting, Pufa is at home giving, and I will say I witnessed this, tremendous comfort to his children.

SCIUTTO: You know, when I was -- reminded people, Bianna, Brianna, that 10 percent of the Ukrainian military is women. You've got -- you got a whole host of women on the front lines as well, who sadly have been dying in combat, too. It's -- it is a national effort there.

GOLODRYGA: Yes. What stood out to me, Brianna, Jim, is parents, you all want to have a brave face for your children, right? For them not to be fearful. And Liuiba had a smile on her face as she was talking to Brianna. But you look at her children and they, clearly, were very frightened and worried about their father's safety. It's just heartbreaking to see. Brianna Keilar, thank you.

Well, Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, testifying right now on Capitol Hill. As the first major bank warns, a U.S. recession may be coming. We'll tell you when, up next.

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[10:50:00]

Right now, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is in Capitol Hill testifying about the major consequences for global economy as the result of Russia's war on Ukraine. Now, her appearance comes as Deutsche Bank is the first major bank to forecast that the U.S. recession may be coming. Here with me is CNN Reporter Matt Egan. So, Matt, on the one hand you have Joint Chief of Staff Milley saying this war may last not months, but years. And now you have a major bank forecasting a recession within the next year. How alarming is this?

MATT EGAN, CNN BUSINESS REPORTER: Yes. You know, the concern here is all about inflation, right? Consumer prices are going almost straight up. Rising at the fastest pace in 40 years. And so, the federal reserve has to raise interest rates, perhaps aggressively. And so, the concern is that the Fed is going to be, not just tapping the brakes on the economy, but really slamming the brakes to get inflation down. As you can see on that chart, going really almost straight up.

So, that's why Deutsche Bank is calling for a recession. The first U.S. -- first major bank to do so. They're calling for a mild one. But let me read you the key line from the Deutsche Bank report. They said, "We no longer see the Fed achieving a soft landing. Instead, we anticipate that a more aggressive tightening of monetary policy will push the economy into a recession." This is a big deal, not because Deutsche Bank has a crystal ball, right? It doesn't. It's very hard to forecast anything about the COVID economy. But it does speak to this level of concern about how hot inflation is and what the Fed has to do to tame it.

Also, it's worth noting that it's unusual to talk about a recession at this stage in a recovery. This expansion just began two years ago. And we have this chart showing how the most recent recoveries have lasted much, much longer, lasted for years. The recovery from the great recession was the longest expansion on record. Of course, the difference is that, this recovery is much stronger. In fact, it's so strong that it's raised all of these concerns that the economy is overheating.

[10:55:00]

GOLODRYGA: Yes, just two years out of the pandemic. First hitting this country, right? We will be getting the minutes out of the Fed's last meeting later this afternoon.

EGAN: 2:00 p.m.

GOLODRYGA: To get more insight. Matt Egan, thank you.

EGAN: Thanks.

GOLODRYGA: And thank you so much for watching. I'm Bianna Golodryga.

SCIUTTO: And I'm Jim Sciutto. At this hour with Kate Bolduan starts after a quick break.

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